Default wrote: ↑Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:34 pm
Um, you do NOT want to fuck with the Poles. The fact that they keep leaving tanks on the border with Ukraine with the keys in the ignition while they "go get a coffee" should be statement enough.
Is that really happening? Why do they need to be surreptitious about it?
Because the West is so busy worrying about escalating the war. The West won't ship fighter planes to Ukraine, so Poland labels their fully functional fighter planes as airplane parts and transfers them to Ukraine that way. Poland knows what a threat the Russians are, and so they're not playing the same games that we are. Add to that, Poland is a NATO country with NATO doctrine armed forces and they could probably kick Russia's army without even breaking a sweat. They might even stop for pierogies afterwards.
In a supreme coincidence, I'm eating pierogi and sauerkraut right now.
Again, are they actually doing this? I can't find anything that says they have. They haven't been coy about being willing to send tanks and jets, so I'm just wondering what this charade would be for. To Russia, a Polish tank on the battlefield is a Polish tank. I don't think they care about the distinction between Ukraine just 'finding' one or Poland giving them one.
edit: So maybe what you're saying is that NATO is target of the ruse, not Russia.
Max Peck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:01 pm
I haven't seen anything to suggest that such a "ruse" has actually happened. I thought it was just creative license describing how Poland has been providing tanks to Ukraine whether the rest of NATO was on board or not. So far as I know, both Poland and Ukraine have been upfront about the fact that Poland has been providing tanks since quite early in the war. I've seen reports going back as early as April 2022 that Poland had transferred 240+ T-72s to Ukraine.
So it's just a cynical way of describing how NATO doesn't really control the NATO countries.
"NATO is not providing Ukraine with Tanks. Now Poland may have left a few over the border with the keys in them, but you would need to ask them."
Regional officials in southern and western Russia reported a string of drone attacks near the border with Ukraine and deep inside the country that caused no casualties, but provoked a security stir Tuesday, as the war with Kyiv stretched into its second year.
The hacking of Russian television channels and radio stations, and the temporary closure of airspace around St. Petersburg’s airport, fed suspicion that Kyiv could be behind the disruption.
Ukrainian officials didn’t immediately claim responsibility for the attacks, but they similarly avoided directly acknowledging responsibility for previous strikes and sabotage while emphasizing Ukraine’s right to hit any target in Russia following the full-scale invasion that began last year.
A flurry of drone attacks on Monday night and Tuesday morning targeted regions inside Russia along the border with Ukraine and deeper into the country, with one drone crashing just 100 kilometers (60 miles) away from Moscow, according to local Russian authorities.
I mean, I know it's not your intention - but I think that sounds almost like scare talk.
These are basically remote-controlled missiles at this point - and to call them 'kamikaze' paints a slightly different picture... specifically one that asks for humans to turn themselves into missiles.
But I get the point. These drones were designed to come back home - and the missions they went out on had no intention of that happening. So, to that point - I can see the word being meaningful.
Anyhow - as to: "emphasizing Ukraine’s right to hit any target in Russia " ... Hell yeah they do.
Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:33 amBut I get the point. These drones were designed to come back home - and the missions they went out on had no intention of that happening. So, to that point - I can see the word being meaningful.
This is ultimately the why here behind the usage. Organizations have been describing these efforts in these terms for some time. For example, the BBC in June. Most are COTS drones being converted into one-way missiles. There isn't a good fit for a name in the existing lexicon. Maybe a Ukrainian name for this concept will get popular traction.
Something capable of dropping/firing ordinance that instead crashes into the target to deploy ordinance is generally referred to as "kamikaze". Doesn't really require the human element for the now colloquial usage.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:39 pm
Something capable of dropping/firing ordinance that instead crashes into the target to deploy ordinance is generally referred to as "kamikaze". Doesn't really require the human element for the now colloquial usage.
Who made you in charge?
honestly, when I google it, every single reference still seems to bring up a pilot and/or 'suicidal'. Every single one.
I think it's more accurate to say what we agreed upon above, "Something capable of returning to its base of operation for re-use, that is instead used as a one-way delivery can generally be called 'kamikaze'.
There is an implied 'sacrifice' that is put into the term "kamikaze"... and in this case, Ukraine is ok with sacrificing drones. This is significant in that drones can be used for so much more, but it's not all that 'desperate' a use, IMO.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:39 pm
Something capable of dropping/firing ordinance that instead crashes into the target to deploy ordinance is generally referred to as "kamikaze". Doesn't really require the human element for the now colloquial usage.
Who made you in charge?
honestly, when I google it, every single reference still seems to bring up a pilot and/or 'suicidal'. Every single one.
I think it's more accurate to say what we agreed upon above, "Something capable of returning to its base of operation for re-use, that is instead used as a one-way delivery can generally be called 'kamikaze'.
There is an implied 'sacrifice' that is put into the term "kamikaze"... and in this case, Ukraine is ok with sacrificing drones. This is significant in that drones can be used for so much more, but it's not all that 'desperate' a use, IMO.
It may not be in the original spirit of the word but it's fairly commonly understood.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
To some extent, a suicide drone is just a bargain-basement cruise missile. (This is especially amusing to me as a Star Fleet Battles veteran, given that the game referred to missiles as drones.)
In other contexts, "suicide drone" has been used a disparaging term for loitering munitions (e.g. we describe our own toys as loitering munitions, but refer to Iran as using suicide drones).
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
That's interesting. Obviously (I hope) I am being a little tongue-in-cheek with a semantical argument, so I'm thankful that you (all) are even humoring me.
I guess I'm just speaking to my own mental imagery for "cheap kamikaze drones as a strategic warfare capability" and how it just sounded like a normal legitimate use for them. But I think I just reacted poorly.
Also, (tangent) I had always imagined lingering munitions as not ever coming back home.
In any case. I'm educated now. I accept that anything capable of 'flying over there, then circling around a deciding where to just bring itself and all its munitions' is a kamikaze attack.
Wow. Putin's version of scraping the barrel expands. Now it is coming out that Putin is recruiting Palestinians out of a refugee camp in Lebanon to be front-line soldiers. Report here.
A Lebanese government security source has told The Media Line that Palestinians residing in Lebanon have signed up to join the ongoing conflict in Ukraine on behalf of Russia, having been offered a sum of 350 dollars by Russian entities.
The source added that the recruitment effort is being carried out by activists affiliated with the Palestinian embassy in Lebanon.
Most of those enlisting were born after 1969, as those born after this point onwards do not have proper registration with the Lebanese authorities, making it easier to travel for the purpose of participating in the conflict as mercenaries.
I've been following the Russo-Ukrainian war intently. Poland has not only built up a US quality military, but has a reputation in Eastern Europe for providing a lot of under the table military aid.
You just have pay attention to non-American news outlets.
It's so weird because he is actually making some surprisingly reasonable sounding points up until then. I won't go as far as say they are actually reasonable but he shows he is somewhat prepared for the line of questioning. That is until Undersecretary Kahl finds an elegant way to undercut the Putin aligned talking point.
Another example: we know the enemy is coming to a certain village, but we don’t know where exactly. We open a Google map, see a store, see its phone number, and dial it: “Good evening, we are from Ukraine! “Do you have any Katsaps in the village?” “Yes.” “Where?” “Behind Grandma Hanna’s house.” “What house does Grandma Hanna have?” “Well, everyone knows her!” So you talk to people a little bit and realize where everything is.
***
We also called civilians and asked: “Do you see this section of the road?” “I do.” “If a shell hits in a minute and a half, can you tell us at least roughly where it exploded?” “I can. Then the person would describe the place of the explosion, and we would open a Google map and see: yes, there is such a place behind the vegetable gardens.
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:34 pm
It's so weird because he is actually making some surprisingly reasonable sounding points up until then. I won't go as far as say they are actually reasonable but he shows he is somewhat prepared for the line of questioning. That is until Undersecretary Kahl finds an elegant way to undercut the Putin aligned talking point.
I was annoyed by how he obviously was trying to trap Mr.Storch to de facto reveal classified information, which he would need to do in order to even yea or nay on testimony across all of the time looking back.
"If you could testify to that fact, you would... you are citing a classified report - I don't know why that's classified, I think the people should know..."
-and I'm thinking: So that's great but none the less it happens to BE classified and this guy doesn't make that call.
Why doesn't the zeal for finding corruption from the republican controlled house of representatives extend to the republican controlled house of representatives. Maybe that's a coincidence.
Over the past year, as Western governments have ramped up weapons deliveries to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Moscow, U.S. and European security services have been waging a parallel if less visible campaign to cripple Russian spy networks. The German case, which also involved the arrest of a senior official in the BND, Germany’s foreign intelligence service, followed roll-ups of suspected Russian operatives in the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Poland and Slovenia.
The moves amount to precision strikes against Russian agents still in Europe after the mass expulsion of more than 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers from Moscow’s embassies across the continent last year.
U.S. and European security officials caution that Russia retains significant capabilities but said that its spy agencies have sustained greater damage over the past year than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The magnitude of the campaign appears to have caught Russia off-guard, officials said, blunting its ability to carry out influence operations in Europe, stay in contact with informants or provide insights to the Kremlin on key issues including the extent to which Western leaders are prepared to continue stepping up arms deliveries to Ukraine.
If so, the fallout may add to the list of consequences that Russian President Vladimir Putin — a former KGB officer in East Germany — failed to anticipate when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
sidenote to this - reports of 'Havana Syndrome' at US embassies and overseas govt installations have greatly dropped off (if not stopped completely?) since the Russian invasion.
There is some talk today that Russia's recent mobilization is a hot mess even by Russian standards. We have to take this with a grain of salt because it comes from Russian language Telegram channels and could be Ukrainian disinformation, exaggeration by frustrated Russian soldiers, or planted stories due to some of the internal competition issues in Russian politics (e.g. Wagner vs the Russian army). Some of this is being reported in pro-war Russian mil-blogger channels.
The upshot is that many soldiers can't find their units. They are dumped in the rear and then expected to find their units. There are reports that some soldiers are now wandering along the entirety of the front looking for their units. Worse there are cases where individuals are listed as deserters for this reason and subject to arrest. Some of this is due to all the new formations that have been created. Also many units collapsed or evaporated when the Ukrainians had their big breakout near Kharkiv or were overrun in the final Kherson push. Soldiers were shuffled around and got lost.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This is another wild if true video. If the Russians hadn't been demonstrating pretty deep incompetence I'd almost think this is PsyOps to protect false weakness.
I've seen some assessments that one of the big reasons the Ukrainians want a decent armor component is they probably think if they achieve multiple breakthroughs into the rear of this shit show they might be able to make significant advances. They've got Wagner dumping soldiers into Bakhmut at something between 7-10 to 1 ratios. The main army can't get soldiers to their units. The units have zero morale. The Ukrainians have a real shot if they can get themselves armored up for a spring or even summer offensive.
Another interesting discussion is happening out in the public sphere about Ukraine that has crossover potential with the Viral Economics thread. To wit, there has been a lot of talk about how difficult it has been to switch war production to support the war in Ukraine across the West. Paul Krugman touches on the phenomenon in a good thought piece in the NY Times talking about how we're starting to realize all the various implications about how fragile our globalized economy is (quote below the Tweet). This is all the worse in a world where we are needling a major adversary who also is a co-dependent economic partner.
What do shipping containers and artillery shells have in common? This isn’t a trick question. The answer is that both have been in very short supply at some point over the past three years. And these shortages tell us something disturbing about modern economies: They aren’t nearly as flexible as many people, myself included, had thought.
About those artillery shells: Like many people, I’ve been closely following the war in Ukraine. Everyone knows the broad outlines of the story so far: Vladimir Putin’s Russia invaded in February of last year, expecting a quick victory over Ukraine’s much weaker army, but the Ukrainians, astonishingly, defeated the would-be blitzkrieg and the war has turned instead into a brutal slugging match.
No matter how valorous, Ukrainians on their own would have no chance in such a match. But they have received crucial aid from Western nations that see Ukraine — as do I — as a crucial front in the defense of democracy.
...
But while money isn’t really an issue here, getting Ukraine the specific things it needs in order to fight turns out to be more problematic. Nobody expected a sustained war of attrition to break out in the 21st century, and while we have vast production capacity in general, it turns out that we have limited capacity to produce key military goods. The most pressing problem, reporting suggests, is that Ukraine is firing artillery shells faster than the West can produce them — and increasing production quickly is apparently very hard. (Russia seems to be having similar and probably worse problems, but I’m not going to play armchair general and prognosticate about the war.)
The point is that often, converting general economic capacity into the production of particular goods and services that are suddenly in high demand turns out to be quite difficult. Which is the same lesson we learned in 2021, as the world economy began to recover from the initial pandemic recession.
Yeah, I've read before how both have been using lots of ammunition (I remember there was a report that Russia had started using some of their very old stocks). There's also reports in the last few days of Iran sending Russia a lot of ammo.
The general US military strategy was to be prepared to fight battles on two fronts, but we’re learning we don’t have the means to fight on one front.
And I think we oversimplified how easy it would be to switch to military production.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein "I don't stand by anything." - Trump “Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867 “It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
Zarathud wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:27 pm
The general US military strategy was to be prepared to fight battles on two fronts, but we’re learning we don’t have the means to fight on one front.
And I think we oversimplified how easy it would be to switch to military production.
That's because we thought counterinsurgency was the way of the future. Old-fashioned wars of conquest were supposed to be a thing of the past. That's the main reason that driving Russia from Ukraine matters so much.
Knocking Russia's dick in the dirt through a proxy while expanding NATO, however, is a bargain at a couple hundred billion. Unless you're a Putin fan, of course.
This to me indicates how desperate for power DeSantis is. Which further raises his threat profile to me. He wants power so badly that he'll compromise what is right, what is best, and I have no doubts this is not in line with his actual beliefs. He served after all and knows that the vast majority of military and policy thinkers believe that support Ukraine is a vital US interest. He is making a political calculation. And a cynical one at that.
I like how Fox made their headline sound like we caused the incident. Because of course they did.
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.
