Ukraine

[waitingtoconnect]

And he’d have gotten away with it too if it wasn’t for those meddling kids. Which is why he’s participating in kidnapping them and sending them to Siberia.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_a ... of_Ukraine

[Kraken]

There is a report going around that Shoigu said that the "Special Military Operation" will continue until 2025. It seems to be going a whole lot longer than the original 3 days predicted.

It will certainly continue until January of '25. Russia wins quickly in Ukraine if trump wins the election, or if Republicans overthrow democracy. OTOH, if Democrats retain control and the coup attempt is put down, Putin will decide it might be time to negotiate after all. He won't end the war until he sees how his trump card plays.

[malchior]

It might not be Putin's choice to continue the war until 2025. I wouldn't hold my breath that that a complete collapse will happen but it's a possibility. The situation in the south & Crimea has the potential to shift quickly even now.

Still even if Trump wins and American democracy ends, Ukraine still gets support from us until January 2025 (and potentially longer based on other factors) and would potentially still get support for the rest of NATO for some period.

[Kraken]

Sure, military stuff might happen. I'm assuming an indefinite stalemate, and that Republicans won't kneecap our team before the election. NATO won''t defeat Russia because nukes, and Russia can't defeat Ukraine because NATO.

[Max Peck]

This article provides a rebuttal of the narrative that Ukraine doesn't know how to apply NATO/American training and tactics against the Russian defenses.

Biting Off What It Can Chew: Ukraine Understands Its Attritional Context

Among the vineyards seeded with improvised explosive devices in Zhari, Kandahar, there was no possibility of maneuver. By 2012, the Taliban had place so many improvised explosive devices in the area that any attempt at doing the battle drills taught by the U.S. Army to suppress and maneuver on an enemy were suicide. The Taliban were innovative. They knew that when they ambushed us, we would seek cover and then attempt to maneuver on them. So the Taliban emplaced improvised explosive devices along walls, berms, and any piece of terrain in the flat floodplain of the Arghandab River that we might use for cover. When we received fire, our best reaction was to not seek cover; it was to simply lay down and return fire. It went against all our training, but it was the correct approach for the context of our fight in Zhari.

Today, at a much larger scale, the Ukrainian military is facing an enemy that impedes maneuver. As a result, the Ukrainian army is pursuing an attritional approach appropriate for the context of its fight. U.S. government sources, speaking anonymously to the media, have not appreciated the importance of Ukraine’s current situation. They have criticized the Ukrainian army for not conducting “combined arms maneuver.” One narrative is that some form of American training, with a bit more synchronization and air support, would cut through the minefields and drive the Russian military from their trenches.

Outsiders watching the conflict should have humility, especially when pushing U.S.-led training in combined arms maneuver as a panacea to any military problem. Context matters in war, and the U.S. military does not train to prevail in the context that Ukraine faces.

The U.S. military should not push the Ukrainian military to conduct a high-risk form of warfare in the hope of a spectacular victory. Hans Delbrück explained that Ludendorff tried to wage a war of annihilation that revolved around a single, decisive victory, not recognizing that the strategic context of World War I was fundamentally different from the wars of the 19th century. Delbrück contrasted a strategy of annihilation with a strategy of exhaustion, which sought to gradually wear down an enemy across military, political, and economic fronts until continuing a war was no longer worthwhile. In its current context, Ukraine, with the support of all countries that are against wars of imperial conquest, should pursue an attritional operational approach as part of a broader strategy of exhaustion.

Some might fear that such a theory of victory plays into the Russian military’s strategy, but there is no perfect alternative. Prematurely pursuing maneuver will only allow Russia to attrit Ukrainian forces. Ukraine will need to destroy Russian artillery and inflict casualties that thin Russian reserves at a favorable rate that outstrips Russia’s ability to replace those losses. It will be slow and grinding with constant competitive adaptation. It may not produce spectacular victories for social media consumption. Winston Churchill said of defeating the German U-boats’ campaign of exhaustion in the North Atlantic: “It did not take the form of flaring battles and glittering achievements, it manifested itself through statistics, diagrams, and curves unknown to the nation, incomprehensible to the public.”

At some point, vulnerabilities might begin to appear in the Russian lines and present Ukraine with an opportunity for spectacular victories. Such an opportunity previously arose with Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive in 2022. Similarly in 1918, the Allies finally could conduct a successful massed attack during the Hundred Days offensive when the German army began to collapse. Any attempt to conduct large-scale maneuver before then would be suicidal.

It can be hard to convey the context in which Ukraine fights. In western Kandahar, I did not have to deal with triple-stacked T-62 mines designed to cripple any breaching vehicle. But I still remember the strange sense of freedom of movement that I felt when, the day after returning from Afghanistan, I went for a hike in the evergreen trees of Washington. Being able to step anywhere without following closely behind two mine detectors seemed a surreal luxury. Ukraine does not have the luxury of conducting maneuver. It needs to pursue unglamorous attrition, and we must be prepared to support it until it exhausts the Russian invaders. And the United States should not forget how poorly its last attempt to remake an army in its image fared.

[Kraken]

PBS has put together some solid info in easily digestible charts on how much the US has sent Ukraine so far, and where it went. Well, except that there's no category for graft and corruption, but that's kind of hard to document.

[Smoove_B]

So what's going on in the Senate

Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell are moving forward on a major Ukraine aid package, even as there’s a very good chance the next speaker is even less receptive than Kevin McCarthy was.

Majority Leader Schumer said he’s spoken specifically to McConnell about the issue and added “we’ll work together to get a big package done.” Ukraine was in the Senate’s bipartisan spending proposal last week, but was ultimately left out of the eventual stopgap government funding law approved over the weekend.

Now there’s no clear path forward, particularly since there isn’t even a House speaker. So the two Senate leaders appear willing to plunge forward on their own for now.

“We have large bipartisan majorities for aid to Ukraine, and we’re going to work to get it done,” Schumer said.

[waitingtoconnect]

When the house makes Mitch McConnell look good. Putin must be dancing in his bunker right now.

[Pyperkub]

This article provides a rebuttal of the narrative that Ukraine doesn't know how to apply NATO/American training and tactics against the Russian defenses.

Biting Off What It Can Chew: Ukraine Understands Its Attritional Context

Among the vineyards seeded with improvised explosive devices in Zhari, Kandahar, there was no possibility of maneuver. By 2012, the Taliban had place so many improvised explosive devices in the area that any attempt at doing the battle drills taught by the U.S. Army to suppress and maneuver on an enemy were suicide. The Taliban were innovative. They knew that when they ambushed us, we would seek cover and then attempt to maneuver on them. So the Taliban emplaced improvised explosive devices along walls, berms, and any piece of terrain in the flat floodplain of the Arghandab River that we might use for cover. When we received fire, our best reaction was to not seek cover; it was to simply lay down and return fire. It went against all our training, but it was the correct approach for the context of our fight in Zhari.

Today, at a much larger scale, the Ukrainian military is facing an enemy that impedes maneuver. As a result, the Ukrainian army is pursuing an attritional approach appropriate for the context of its fight. U.S. government sources, speaking anonymously to the media, have not appreciated the importance of Ukraine’s current situation. They have criticized the Ukrainian army for not conducting “combined arms maneuver.” One narrative is that some form of American training, with a bit more synchronization and air support, would cut through the minefields and drive the Russian military from their trenches.

Outsiders watching the conflict should have humility, especially when pushing U.S.-led training in combined arms maneuver as a panacea to any military problem. Context matters in war, and the U.S. military does not train to prevail in the context that Ukraine faces.

The U.S. military should not push the Ukrainian military to conduct a high-risk form of warfare in the hope of a spectacular victory. Hans Delbrück explained that Ludendorff tried to wage a war of annihilation that revolved around a single, decisive victory, not recognizing that the strategic context of World War I was fundamentally different from the wars of the 19th century. Delbrück contrasted a strategy of annihilation with a strategy of exhaustion, which sought to gradually wear down an enemy across military, political, and economic fronts until continuing a war was no longer worthwhile. In its current context, Ukraine, with the support of all countries that are against wars of imperial conquest, should pursue an attritional operational approach as part of a broader strategy of exhaustion.

Some might fear that such a theory of victory plays into the Russian military’s strategy, but there is no perfect alternative. Prematurely pursuing maneuver will only allow Russia to attrit Ukrainian forces. Ukraine will need to destroy Russian artillery and inflict casualties that thin Russian reserves at a favorable rate that outstrips Russia’s ability to replace those losses. It will be slow and grinding with constant competitive adaptation. It may not produce spectacular victories for social media consumption. Winston Churchill said of defeating the German U-boats’ campaign of exhaustion in the North Atlantic: “It did not take the form of flaring battles and glittering achievements, it manifested itself through statistics, diagrams, and curves unknown to the nation, incomprehensible to the public.”

At some point, vulnerabilities might begin to appear in the Russian lines and present Ukraine with an opportunity for spectacular victories. Such an opportunity previously arose with Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive in 2022. Similarly in 1918, the Allies finally could conduct a successful massed attack during the Hundred Days offensive when the German army began to collapse. Any attempt to conduct large-scale maneuver before then would be suicidal.

It can be hard to convey the context in which Ukraine fights. In western Kandahar, I did not have to deal with triple-stacked T-62 mines designed to cripple any breaching vehicle. But I still remember the strange sense of freedom of movement that I felt when, the day after returning from Afghanistan, I went for a hike in the evergreen trees of Washington. Being able to step anywhere without following closely behind two mine detectors seemed a surreal luxury. Ukraine does not have the luxury of conducting maneuver. It needs to pursue unglamorous attrition, and we must be prepared to support it until it exhausts the Russian invaders. And the United States should not forget how poorly its last attempt to remake an army in its image fared.

Yeah, as of right now, I'd argue that the Ukrainian military are probably the MOST experienced and capable fighting force in the world at doing this.

They have been doing it for almost 2 years in real battlefield situations, and doing it better than the Russians.

I'd probably rate their ability to do this higher than any NATO country other than the US. And maybe slightly higher than the US, given the real world experience.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

[El Guapo]

Checks out.

[malchior]

Another notable entry in Russia's rich history of dystopian fiction writing.

[Max Peck]

You just need to understand that the hand grenade is a metaphor for the march on Moscow.

[Carpet_pissr]

How would he, in theory, even know that??

Is that on the black box? Cool! Let's hear it! Otherwise, STFU, you evil, beady-eyed fuck.

[malchior]

Let's say it's true then that should be forensically provable. However, I could also cue up photos/video of them moving the plane to indicate that a competent investigation including any forensics was...definitely not performed. But that would be a waste of time.

[El Guapo]

How would he, in theory, even know that??

Is that on the black box? Cool! Let's hear it! Otherwise, STFU, you evil, beady-eyed fuck.

They provided the hand grenades.

[Carpet_pissr]

How would he, in theory, even know that??

Is that on the black box? Cool! Let's hear it! Otherwise, STFU, you evil, beady-eyed fuck.

They provided the hand grenades.

[LawBeefaroni]

Putin, classic projection.

In the clip, a curious child appears to be talking to a Russian soldier sitting on a ledge holding a grenade in his hand.

The soldier at first makes a throwing movement, appearing to show the kid how the weapon works.

But taking everyone by surprise, he proceeds to actually pull the pin out of the live grenade and lob it down the street in Kazan, Russia.

[malchior]

FWIW I know enough Russian to hear him say something along the lines of it can't hurt or (maybe kill?) anyone to the woman yelling at him. My guess is it was a flash bang. Still WTF.

Also, at the beginning it sort of sounded like he was asking the kid to pull the pin for him.

[Blackhawk]

Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.

Translation of the intended metaphor: "He must have been high to take actions that he knew would get him killed." My guess? It's not intended to be taken seriously. It's Putin stating outright that he had him killed by providing a story so absurd that it's clearly not the truth. It had everything except the wink.

[Blackhawk]

FWIW I know enough Russian to hear him say something along the lines of it can't hurt or (maybe kill?) anyone to the woman yelling at him. My guess is it was a flash bang. Still WTF.

Also, at the beginning it sort of sounded like he was asking the kid to pull the pin for him.

It certainly sounded like a flashbang. A frag tends to sound... sharper? At least with the US grenades I've seen go off.

A translation I saw on Reddit:

Spoiler:

Translation for much needed context

Zork: "Sanya, what's up? Let's blow it up, c'mon."

Kid: [inaudible]

Zork: "No, there. It's just a flashbang. It's gonna be loud, alarms gonna-"

Kid: "It's gonna fall there~"

Zork: "So are we throwing or not?!"

Bench woman: "No."

Kid: "Yes."

Bench woman: "NO. No need to- [inaudible]"

Zork: "That's it. let me straighten the pin ears. Come pull it out, and I'll throw it."

Bench woman: [inaudible to the kid] Come.

Zork does the funni

Door woman: "The fuck are you? Are you fucking crazy, fucking bitch?!"

Bench woman to the kid: "Come here!"
KA-BOOM

Door woman: "FUUCK GO FUCK YOURSELF!!! ARE YOU A FUCKING MORON?!"

Zork: "It's a flashbang."

Door woman: "I DONT GIVE A FUCK!!!"

Zork: "Come on, I'm sorry."

Door woman: "BITCH!!!"

Zork: "Please forgive me."

Door woman: [unintelligible]

Zork: "Please forgive me."

Door woman: "[inaudible] just fucking start killing everybody already [inaudible sobbing]"

Zork: "Alright, I'm sorry."

The end.

[Holman]

Whenever I follow a link to a UK tabloid media site, I'm reminded that the surrounding clickbait is even worse than what we see here.

[Alefroth]

Ukraine uses ATACMS to damage aircraft and airfields-

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/1 ... e-00121932

[Daehawk]

Good for them. I hope Putin kicks the bucket soon or the war ends. Im worried the Repugnacannots will do something to fuck up aid to Ukraine so they can kiss Putin booty.

[wonderpug]

Ukraine uses ATACMS to damage aircraft and airfields-

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/1 ... e-00121932

Please tell me those are pronounced “attack ‘ems”

[Unagi]

Ukraine uses ATACMS to damage aircraft and airfields-

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/1 ... e-00121932

Please tell me those are pronounced “attack ‘ems”

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS; pronounced /əˈtækəms/) is a tactical ballistic missile manufactured by the US defense company Lockheed Martin.

[malchior]

Ukraine might be attempting to legitimately cross the Dnipro River at Kherson. This route was cut off when the Russians blew the dam and flooded the area. If they do have success there it'll add more stress to the Russian southern position and threaten Crimea.

[Alefroth]

Ukraine uses ATACMS to damage aircraft and airfields-

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/1 ... e-00121932

Please tell me those are pronounced “attack ‘ems”

Indeed.

[Isgrimnur]

For those who don't read schwas anymore...

Time

Enter ATACMS, the Army Tactical Missile Systems, pronounced “attack ‘ems”.

[Daehawk]

[Unagi]

"Great video of an AFU FPV drone chasing down a Russian loaf (UAZ-452 "Bukhanka")."

[Kraken]

I'm thinking someone needs to start a GoFundMe for Ukraine.

[LordMortis]

Hard to believe it's been a month since anyone's posted here. We do grow war weary. Do the Russians?

[GreenGoo]

Hard to believe it's been a month since anyone's posted here. We do grow war weary. Do the Russians?

Russians? Probably. The guy with the windows? Not so much.

[Blackhawk]

You know how politicians like to spin up a controversy just as a scandal is brought to light, resulting in nobody talking about the scandal?

Gaza happened. I don't know if Putin had any hand in it, but it was the biggest victory for him since this thing started.

[Holman]

Hard to believe it's been a month since anyone's posted here. We do grow war weary. Do the Russians?

Well, a significant number of them are *very* war-weary:

U.S. intelligence assesses Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 casualties

(315,000 is 90% of standing Russian manpower in Feb 2022, although presumably newer conscripts are over-represented in these numbers.)

[hitbyambulance]

You know how politicians like to spin up a controversy just as a scandal is brought to light, resulting in nobody talking about the scandal?

Gaza happened. I don't know if Putin had any hand in it, but it was the biggest victory for him since this thing started.

agree. the near complete lack of Ukraine news coverage continues to be extremely noticeable since this started.

[Kraken]

I see Ukraine news daily. For the past week, Russia has been targeting infrastructure, hoping to freeze them into submission. Just yesterday a massive cyberattack took down most of Ukraine's cell and internet service. And Zelinsky lobbied Congress for more aid in person, but Republicans are keeping it bottled up as extortion for their border agenda (much to Putin's delight).

There isn't much coverage of the fighting because they remain stalemated. The latest scuttlebutt says that the US is urging Ukraine to spend the next year bolstering its defenses and building up its own military industry, rather than pissing away its strength against near-impregnable Russian defenses -- the idea being to improve Ukraine's ability to stand on its own as US aid becomes increasingly unreliable. Ukraine's military leadership isn't down with that.

Ukraine coverage is out there every day, but maybe you aren't seeing it because there's little military progress to report on.

[Blackhawk]

Oh, the coverage is still there - it's just below the fold.

[Kraken]

"If it bleeds, it leads." Palestine is doing most of the bleeding today.

[LordMortis]

And Zelinsky lobbied Congress for more aid in person, but Republicans are keeping it bottled up as extortion for their border agenda (much to Putin's delight).

This I hear about daily, but that's Congressional news, not Ukraine news.

The latest scuttlebutt says that the US is urging Ukraine to spend the next year bolstering its defenses and building up its own military industry, rather than pissing away its strength against near-impregnable Russian defenses -- the idea being to improve Ukraine's ability to stand on its own as US aid becomes increasingly unreliable. Ukraine's military leadership isn't down with that.

Really?