Ukraine

[raydude]

I remember articles in the 2000's talking about how Russia was modernizing its forces into a US-style motivated volunteer force, and how their technology was racing ahead to match anything fielded by US/NATO armies. Much was made of the T-14 Armata tank, which was described as superior to the latest iteration of the American M1A2. It was said that Russia would field 2,000 T-14s by 2020.

It's 2022, and the number of T-14s yet produced in Russia is estimated to be zero, or perhaps half a dozen prototypes. And of course the Russian army has been revealed to be an understaffed, under-equipped conscript force.

I'm relatively Hawkish for a liberal, but the cynic in me wonders if journalism focusing on growing Russian strength was amenable to American corporate media because it reinforced Pentagon budgetary priorities.

You were not wrong. The Russian Minister of Defense from 2007-2012 was Anatoly Serdyukov. He instituted a lot of reforms in the interest of modernizing Russia's military. He substantially reduced cronyism and corruption and in the process made himself a lot of enemies in the Russian military and in the oligarchs who lived off of corruption in the Russian military.

He was replaced by Sergei Shoigu in 2012, who has been the Russian Minister of Defense ever since. Shoigu knew how the game was played. He let corruption back in and ingratiated himself to those who wanted to dip into the military trough. Unfortunately for Shoigu, the Ukrainian campaign may be exposing the corruption that he let fester.

Reform efforts that began under Shoigu’s predecessor stalled after he took over in 2012. He jettisoned a program to establish an American-style corps of noncommissioned officers that could have instilled professionalism in the lower ranks. Ambitions to expand the number of professional contract military personnel weren’t fully met, while the ministry spent lavishly to procure expensive weaponry. Russia went into the war without a fully ready combat reserve.

After Shoigu took over as defense minister, transparency within the Russian military dissipated into PR-crafted narratives, according to analysts who track the Russian force. The change boosted confidence in the armed forces among Russians, helping Shoigu’s political standing, but reduced valuable scrutiny.

[LordMortis]

Not sure what you're saying here. We have been training the locals (the Ukrainian military forces) for several years now.

I'm saying we are not there to be greeted as liberators. We aren't there at all.

I was just thinking about Trump's commentary this morning.

[Daehawk]

Pretty spot on.

[Holman]

I wonder to what degree Putin was motivated by Trump's dismissal of Euro/NATO countries. Trump himself refused to sufficiently aid Ukraine when they wouldn't play into his anti-Biden narrative. He almost certainly told Putin that the US would eventually leave NATO because it had little reason to stay.

It's not hard to believe that Putin's 2022 invasion was predicated on the expectation that making territorial gains and embarrassing both Biden and Western Europe would be a huge domestic win. It really appears that the West's strong response took him by surprise.

[malchior]

[Isgrimnur]

[Smoove_B]

I hope when Putin's time comes it's painful and lasts a while.

[Kraken]

It really appears that the West's strong response took him by surprise.

Took us by surprise, too. We all thought the mighty Russian war machine would roll up Kiev in a week and NATO would just wring its hands.

[stessier]

There is Trump-level denial going on with some of these commentators. Also of note to me was that one of them saw this as only one part of a world war that was currently ongoing against Russia.

[Scoop20906]

I read an article in The Atlantic about why the Russian's have been so brutal to a population that they supposedly view as Russian "brothers and sisters". I was surprised about some of the war crimes and figured it was due to prisoners and mercs being the main culprits but it seems to be an actual Russia problem.

Tom Nichols: Nick, international-relations experts will hash out the “great power” dimensions of this war, but at the ground level of the actual fighting, why is the conflict so brutal? Is it really enough to say that the Russians are reacting to the humiliation of losing almost from the start?

Nick Gvosdev: To some extent. At all levels of Russian society, from the cab driver in the street to the Kremlin insider, there was a strongly held belief that Russian forces would be greeted as liberators, especially in the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine. Indeed, the initial Russian military plan was based on the assumption that Ukrainian soldiers would refuse to fight and Ukrainian politicians would defect. This turned out not to be the case. Even more striking, it was the two largest Russian-speaking cities in Ukraine—Kharkiv and Odesa–which proved to be focal points of the successful blunting of the Russian invasion.

Nichols: That last point seems to be important.

Gvosdev: Yes. Western Ukraine—at least those areas that were never under Russian imperial rule and were part of the Habsburg realm—stressed their separateness from the Russians and were always the heartland of Ukrainian nationalism. But almost all the atrocities we’ve seen have targeted people precisely in those parts of Ukraine that are part of the Russian-speaking world. There does appear to be a strong undercurrent of giving these “traitors” their due recompense.

Nichols: I don’t think this is fully understood in the West. The Bucha massacre, for example, was aimed at Russian speakers—almost as if they infuriated the Russians more than Ukrainian nationalists did.

Gvosdev: Bucha was a special target, for sure, given its position as a bedroom community for Ukrainian government workers and military officers. But this is all a direct outcome of appropriating a World War II narrative in which the Ukrainian government is routinely described as a Nazi regime and those fighting the Russians are fascists. Meanwhile, Russian social media routinely uses the term “Allied forces”—with all the connotations from the Second World War that description carries—to characterize the Russian military and the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics. So, think about it: If the Ukrainian military and government are the modern-day successors of the Nazis, then of course no quarter should be given to those who fight on the side of the fascists—and especially those who’ve betrayed their kin.

Source

[Unagi]

That is an interesting perspective, thanks for sharing that.

[Daehawk]

Russians have stepped up their shelling now that they have retreated and are firing arty into Ukraine from inside Russian borders now. Looks like Ukraine will need to hit them in Russia with HIMARS or something to stop them.

[Holman]

It really appears that the West's strong response took him by surprise.

Took us by surprise, too. We all thought the mighty Russian war machine would roll up Kiev in a week and NATO would just wring its hands.

Putin probably initially planned the invasion in the expectation that Trump would still be POTUS. It's possible that the Trump opinion of NATO as weak and spineless played a part in Russian planning. It's likely that embarrassing Biden was part of the final political calculation.

Obviously, Russia's assessment of American and European resolve was grossly mistaken. Maybe this is the one good thing that Trump (unintentionally) accomplished?

[LawBeefaroni]

Underestimating Western resolve wasnt his problem. He underestimated Ukrainian resolve and overestimated the Russian military.

Had they reached Kyiv in a few weeks, the West wouldn't have done shit. We saw that.

[Unagi]

It really appears that the West's strong response took him by surprise.

Took us by surprise, too. We all thought the mighty Russian war machine would roll up Kiev in a week and NATO would just wring its hands.

Putin probably initially planned the invasion in the expectation that Trump would still be POTUS. It's possible that the Trump opinion of NATO as weak and spineless played a part in Russian planning. It's likely that embarrassing Biden was part of the final political calculation.

Obviously, Russia's assessment of American and European resolve was grossly mistaken. Maybe this is the one good thing that Trump (unintentionally) accomplished?

I get your point (entirely - really), but it would have been so much better (for so many lost lives) if Putin was actually left with an impression (even if it was not accurate) that NATO was strong and spine-full. It's unfortunate that Trump may have been able to tease Putin into taking any chance with this 'Special Operation'.

IMO

[Daehawk]

Some ranking Russian in that overrun area said there were 8 Ukraine to 1 Russian in that push.

[malchior]

This is deeply weird shit. I can't even figure it out at this point. Forget that he's constantly wrong (proved wrong within hours of this clip). I guess the barest MAGA angle is enough to flat out just lie.

[Daehawk]

Is there no ethics to rule journalism these days or no response to outright lying? years ago people were fired and banned for stuff like these bastards do.

[Holman]

I get your point (entirely - really), but it would have been so much better (for so many lost lives) if Putin was actually left with an impression (even if it was not accurate) that NATO was strong and spine-full. It's unfortunate that Trump may have been able to tease Putin into taking any chance with this 'Special Operation'.

IMO

I entirely agree. But the burden in lives and ethics entirely rests on Putin. This was his war of choice.

Everyone, including Russia's beleaguered citizens, would benefit from this war ending immediately and Putin hanging from a lamppost.

[Pyperkub]

I get your point (entirely - really), but it would have been so much better (for so many lost lives) if Putin was actually left with an impression (even if it was not accurate) that NATO was strong and spine-full. It's unfortunate that Trump may have been able to tease Putin into taking any chance with this 'Special Operation'.

IMO

I entirely agree. But the burden in lives and ethics entirely rests on Putin. This was his war of choice.

Everyone, including Russia's beleaguered citizens, would benefit from this war ending immediately and Putin hanging from a lamppost.

I disagree to a degree, more to the nested quote) Putin took Crimea under Obama and faced zero real consequences.

It's not all on Trump, despite what he did to completely submarine Ukraine (remember that Manafort was suckling Putin's teat as an consultant in on Yanukovic'grift as Putin's puppet).

But Biden and his team performed miracles repairing NATO relationships and support for Ukraine in Russia's run up to the invasion.

If he hadn't, Russia *does* win that war in two weeks and China would have invaded Taiwan shortly thereafter, IMHO. The initial Russian offensive, especially the paratrooper takeover of the capital would have worked, and Russia would be threatening Poland now.

I still fear that Russia's lack of a face saving way out of this (especially after all the atrocities become even more public) , and Putin's Supreme control of Russia is going to make him going to nukes as he gets more desperate an increasingly likely end game.

[Carpet_pissr]

[Unagi]

Russian agent

[Carpet_pissr]

I try hard to push back against such obviously easy thoughts considering what a turd he is, and where he sits ideologically (or claims to) compared to me, but I’m really starting to suspect it’s true.

[Smoove_B]

As I saw suggested elsewhere, the Russian invasion is going so badly they might completely lose GOP support.

Tucker is doing his best to make sure that doesn't happen.

[Kurth]

Wait, we're supporting UKR in order to "destroy the West" and "pave the way for global Chinese dominance"?

Am I missing something? I don't watch Tucker Carlson, but that sounds distinctly like Q-level conspiracy stuff. I knew he was a turd, but I didn't know he was a tin hat-wearing turd.

Who the fuck actually buys into this crap?

[LawBeefaroni]

Is there no ethics to rule journalism these days or no response to outright lying? years ago people were fired and banned for stuff like these bastards do.

Years ago viewers would abandon people like this. Now? Ratings are great. If ratings are great, the bosses get paid. If bosses get paid, underlings don't get fired.

[LawBeefaroni]

I try hard to push back against such obviously easy thoughts considering what a turd he is, and where he sits ideologically (or claims to) compared to me, but I’m really starting to suspect it’s true.

He knows he's under constant threat of defenestration.

[El Guapo]

I try hard to push back against such obviously easy thoughts considering what a turd he is, and where he sits ideologically (or claims to) compared to me, but I’m really starting to suspect it’s true.

You wonder sometimes with this crap. Some of it is just an ideological alliance (Carlson is part of the essentially American Orbanist camp that would like to set up a conservative authoritarian government here, and so is aligned with conservative authoritarian governments worldwide). And I don't think that Tucker is an outright Russian agent. But sometimes you wonder whether he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

[Kasey Chang]

The same can be said of Trump. Unlike Tuckie, Trumpie actually met Putin several times.

Tuckie is just denying reality due to his cognitive dissonance. It's not news, it's entertainment.

[LawBeefaroni]

I try hard to push back against such obviously easy thoughts considering what a turd he is, and where he sits ideologically (or claims to) compared to me, but I’m really starting to suspect it’s true.

You wonder sometimes with this crap. Some of it is just an ideological alliance (Carlson is part of the essentially American Orbanist camp that would like to set up a conservative authoritarian government here, and so is aligned with conservative authoritarian governments worldwide). And I don't think that Tucker is an outright Russian agent. But sometimes you wonder whether he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

"Asset" is probably more appropriate than "agent."

[raydude]

This is deeply weird shit. I can't even figure it out at this point. Forget that he's constantly wrong (proved wrong within hours of this clip). I guess the barest MAGA angle is enough to flat out just lie.

From the Wikipedia page on Douglas Macgregor:

Ukraine and Russia
2014 Russian annexation of Crimea
In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea and was engaged in a conflict with Ukraine over its eastern parts, Macgregor appeared on Russian state-owned network RT where he called for the annexation of the Donbas and said residents of the region "are in fact Russians, not Ukrainians, and at the same time, you have Ukrainians in the west and in the north, who are not Russians."[19][34]

2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Macgregor appeared on three Fox News programs to speak in support of Russia's actions. Russian state television broadcast excerpts of Macgregor's appearances, which included a characterization of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a "puppet," that Russian forces had been "too gentle" in the early days of the invasion and that Russian president Vladimir Putin was being "demonized" by the United States and NATO. Macgregor said he believed Russia should be allowed to seize whatever parts of Ukraine it wanted.

I tried searching for any other US military commanders who appeared on RT - Russia's international TV network. Michael Flynn is the only other one I could find. This guy is a Russian shill through and through.

[malchior]

Is there no ethics to rule journalism these days or no response to outright lying? years ago people were fired and banned for stuff like these bastards do.

Years ago viewers would abandon people like this. Now? Ratings are great. If ratings are great, the bosses get paid. If bosses get paid, underlings don't get fired.

Exactly - here are the ratings for Friday. Fox produces cable news ratings that typically average around the next two (CNN + MSNBC) combined. When you dig in you see that there is a pronounced dip for Hannity and Ingraham. A boss person could assume that those nutjobs aren't crazy enough for the drooling Fox masses. They aren't performative enough for the deplorables. The interesting thing about Carlson is he has chased away so many sponsors that he is a loss leader that kicks off a night of misinformation composed of pure insanity and mind poison.

You wonder sometimes with this crap. Some of it is just an ideological alliance (Carlson is part of the essentially American Orbanist camp that would like to set up a conservative authoritarian government here, and so is aligned with conservative authoritarian governments worldwide). And I don't think that Tucker is an outright Russian agent. But sometimes you wonder whether he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

This is approximately what I wonder. One thing we have to always assume is that they will just parade through contrarians to turn any Democratic good governance performance into a negative. They are also following Trump who is anti-NATO and very much a Russian stooge himself. That is why they are always mocking the Russian investigation. It's because it's mostly all real. They've tried to memory hole all the things that were actually uncovered.

And we have to properly contextualize it that there is no bottom to the damage Trump has done and is continuing to do to both national and international security. Carlson is a supporting key member of that effort. He is essentially conducting a sophisticated misinformation campaign and it isn't unfair to wonder what his motives are.

[Unagi]

And I don't think that Tucker is an outright Russian agent. But sometimes you wonder whether he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

I'm not saying he is actually FSB, I'm implying that I think he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

[LordMortis]

Russian agent

[raydude]

Nice article in the Kyiv Independent summing up the Kharkiv counter-offensive and explaining generally how the Ukrainian forces maneuvered against the Russians in the north.

[raydude]

And I don't think that Tucker is an outright Russian agent. But sometimes you wonder whether he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

I'm not saying he is actually FSB, I'm implying that I think he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

You'd think that even with Kompromat on him he'd try to find a way to subvert the message. He's not even trying. I think he likes being an asshole.

[Daehawk]

Someone needs to photoshop Trump and Putin along with Charlie Sheen yelling "WINNING!"

[Carpet_pissr]

And I don't think that Tucker is an outright Russian agent. But sometimes you wonder whether he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

I'm not saying he is actually FSB, I'm implying that I think he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

You'd think that even with Kompromat on him he'd try to find a way to subvert the message. He's not even trying. I think he likes being an asshole.

I think this is very likely. Basically the male form of Ann Coulter…a contrarian that will say anything to stir shit up and keep people talking about you.

But whether he’s just playing a ratings/relevancy game like Lindsey Fucking Graham or he’s actually compromised, the result is the same: Putin’s mouthpiece in the US.

The irony of the stereotypically flag-waving, flag WEARING , Amuricca! crowd lapping up Russian propaganda is…something.

Who’s the target? White, well off boomers (that vote come hell, high water or a bare chested Putin riding a face eating bear)

[Holman]

And I don't think that Tucker is an outright Russian agent. But sometimes you wonder whether he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

I'm not saying he is actually FSB, I'm implying that I think he's taken Russian money and/or the Russian government has some kind of Kompromat on him.

You'd think that even with Kompromat on him he'd try to find a way to subvert the message. He's not even trying. I think he likes being an asshole.

I think this is very likely. Basically the male form of Ann Coulter…a contrarian that will say anything to stir shit up and keep people talking about you.

But whether he’s just playing a ratings/relevancy game like Lindsey Fucking Graham or he’s actually compromised, the result is the same: Putin’s mouthpiece in the US.

The irony of the stereotypically flag-waving, flag WEARING , Amuricca! crowd lapping up Russian propaganda is…something.

Who’s the target? White, wealthy boomers (that vote come hell or high water, or a bare chested Putin riding a face eating bear)

Tucker has defended Russia even when ratings and polling would encourage him not to.

He's playing the long game of white Christian Nationalism, which has decided that European authoritarians should be held up as models to emulate.

[Max Peck]

A Hundred Wrecked Tanks In A Hundred Hours: Ukraine Guts Russia’s Best Tank Army

The Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive around the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine starting on Sept. 6 destroyed half of the best tank division in the best tank army in the Russian armed forces.

A hundred wrecked or captured tanks in a hundred furious hours. That’s how much destruction the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division, part of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, the Russian army’s best armor formation.

Now the 1st GTA is retreating north in order to preserve what remains of its front-line divisions. But the damage the tank army has suffered could have lasting implications—and not just for Russia’s 200-day-old wider war in Ukraine.

The 1st GTA “had been one of the most prestigious of Russia’s armies, allocated for the defense of Moscow, and intended to lead counterattacks in the case of a war with NATO,” the U.K. Defense Ministry explained. “It will likely take years for Russia to rebuild this capability.”

The Ukrainian 4th Tank Brigade’s T-72s and T-64s hit the Russian 4th GTD hard outside the city of Izium. By the time the Russian division retreated north toward the Russian border on or around Sept. 10, it had lost around 90 T-80U tanks that independent analysts can confirm.

That’s half the tanks the division would possess at full strength. The Ukrainians captured many of the T-80Us intact—and could fix them up, paint them with the Ukrainian army’s cross insignia and send them back into battle.

The 4th GTD and 2nd GMRD—and by extension the whole 1st GTA—probably are unfit for further fighting. They could reconstitute, but with what and whom? The Kremlin’s urgent recruitment drive is faltering. And having written off more than a thousand tanks in Ukraine, the Russians might need years to bring depleted units back up to full strength.

The Ukrainian army by contrast has more tanks now than it did before the current counteroffensives, as it has captured more Russian tanks than it has lost of its own.