Ukraine

[Kurth]

Lots of video out now of the Kerch Bridge attack, both of the moment of the explosion (surveillance footage from the bridge) and the after effects. Looks like the explosion hit the lower roadway, knocking two or more sections into the sea and simultaneously igniting a massive explosion from a passing tanker train hauling fuel. The upper railway looks badly burned, but unclear what kind of structural damage was done.

The lower roadway is up passable, at least for the lanes/spans that are now under water.

Will be interesting to see how fast Russia gets the bridge (both the railway and roadway) operational again. Also will be interesting to see what the means of attack was.

Russia seems to be claiming it was a truck bomb, but the video doesn’t seem to support that. I’m sure the experts will be shedding light on this soon.

Either way, big news.

[Victoria Raverna]

[Max Peck]

Frontline Ukraine troops are reportedly enduring Starlink outages

Ukrainian forces have reportedly been dealing with Starlink outages as they try to take back Russian-occupied areas. Some of the outages, which are said to have caused a severe loss of communication over the last several weeks, occurred as troops broke through the frontline into territory controlled by Russia as well as during battles, a Ukraine government official told The Financial Times.

The cause of the apparent outages are not yet known. Engadget has contacted Starlink owner SpaceX for comment.

Starlink outages were reported in the four regions that Russia annexed last month following referendums, the legitimacy of which have been disputed. As the Financial Times notes, there's a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive in those areas.

Some terminals are said to have not been working in areas near Khariv, which Ukraine has almost entirely liberated, amid a push into Luhansk, one of the regions that Russia has claimed. However, military officials claimed this week that Starlink terminals were working in freshly liberated areas east of Izyum and in southern Kherson, according to the report.

Given Musk's recent nonsensical proposals for world peace, it's tempting to put this in a nefarious light, but I wonder if it might simply be that Starlink is not providing service to Russian-occupied areas and the network configuration has not kept up with the changes on the ground.

[Carpet_pissr]

Remember the Ukrainians also literally told him to ‘Fuck off’ in response to his comments.

Not saying this is related, but I guess depending on how thick Musk’s skin is, it should be considered.

People with almost unlimited wealth and influence usually don’t respond well to being told that in a very public way.

[malchior]

I can't help but think it is a technical problem and not intentional. There are Starlink contracts in the wings for the US military so I doubt even a thin-skinned Musk is ordering them to sabotage the Ukrainians.

[hitbyambulance]

contrary to what Muskgland inferred, he did not donate the Starlink satellites - they were provided as part of a $3M contract from the US govt.

[Holman]

Today I got behind a beaten-up old pickup that had been painted all over with black primer. Prominent on the tailgate was an unmistakable Russian "Z" marking.

Couldn't get a look at the driver.

[Defiant]

[Defiant]

[Carpet_pissr]

Not sure I’ve seen it mentioned here, but it’s notable that this bridge was publicly and highly celebrated by Putin when it was built, kinda like a cherry on top of his Crimea crimin’. He drove a massive truck across it in a ceremony when it opened and everything.

Oh, and this hit was on his birthday.

[Blackhawk]

He drove a massive truck across it in a ceremony when it opened and everything.

Talk about a delayed detonation!

[malchior]

Putin seemingly took the attack poorly...he rained missile attacks on many cities. Futile and evil. A bad combo.

[LordMortis]

Putin seemingly took the attack poorly...he rained missile attacks on many cities.

It was big new first thing this morning and then nothing. I assume it will cycle back in.

[LawBeefaroni]

It has zero strategic value. They've already endured months of such attacks and it only strengthens resolve and stokes hatred.

Tactically t's a waste of ordinance.

Clearly Putin is grasping at straws through the hazy fog of rage.


Personally, I'd be checking blast zones for traces of polonium.

[Kurth]

It has zero strategic value. They've already endured months of such attacks and it only strengthens resolve and stokes hatred.

Tactically t's a waste of ordinance.

Clearly Putin is grasping at straws through the hazy fog of rage.


Personally, I'd be checking blast zones for traces of polonium.

Totally aimed at domestic consumption. The hardliners in Moscow have been screaming for Putin to attack cities in Ukraine, especially targeting infrastructure necessary for electricity and heating. With winter approaching, they'd like to freeze the Ukrainian population into submission if they can. Or, they'd be equally happy bombing them into the stone age.

Putin's strikes overnight were an attempt to placate those hawks.

[Daehawk]

It just hit me today.....anytime you hear of the Russians as in Russian strikes or attacks...its always missiles. No longer even arty...just missile strikes. They have no army at all to speak of,,,no man power to invade...all they can do is sit waaay back and lob rockets. So weird.

[Unagi]

I don't think that's entirely accurate though.

[LawBeefaroni]

It just hit me today.....anytime you hear of the Russians as in Russian strikes or attacks...its always missiles. No longer even arty...just missile strikes. They have no army at all to speak of,,,no man power to invade...all they can do is sit waaay back and lob rockets. So weird.

They still have an army. Just not close enough to use artillery to attack targets like Kyiv.

[Alefroth]

Is there any kind kind of missile defense system that would be effective here?

[LawBeefaroni]

Is there any kind kind of missile defense system that would be effective here?

It can be done but not reliably without spending a ton of money/getting a ton of aid. Something like Iron Dome?


SAMs are a long shot but sometimes work:

[Alefroth]

Is there any kind kind of missile defense system that would be effective here?

It can be done but not reliably without spending a ton of money/getting a ton of aid. Something like Iron Dome?

That's what I was thinking, but then considered it's success is partly due to the relatively small size of the area protected, knowing the direction of the attack, and the somewhat low tech rockets it defends against. That would certainly be hard to reproduce in Ukraine.

[Unagi]

SAMs are a long shot but sometimes work:

Now that's a feel-good video. Nice.

[LawBeefaroni]

Is there any kind kind of missile defense system that would be effective here?

It can be done but not reliably without spending a ton of money/getting a ton of aid. Something like Iron Dome?

That's what I was thinking, but then considered it's success is partly due to the relatively small size of the area protected, knowing the direction of the attack, and the somewhat low tech rockets it defends against. That would certainly be hard to reproduce in Ukraine.

Even Iron Dome has issues with cruise missiles. But is has some success in tests. Definitely not part of it's original mission parameters, t's primarily CRAM (counter rocket/arty/mortar).

[Carpet_pissr]

Is there any kind kind of missile defense system that would be effective here?

“Putin's Mass Strikes Prompts Germany to Send Ukraine IRIS-T Defense Systems“

[Alefroth]

Wow. Within days even.

[Unagi]

I have to imaging that somewhere , someone is eager to give these systems some serious field tests.

[Unagi]

This website reads like they are selling these to the common man.

https://www.saab.com/products/iris-t

“ Being in control during air-to-air combat is everything. Control leads to confidence, and our precision IRIS-T missile gives you both.”

Ok, Saab. What’s the mpg and safety features ?

[Freyland]

This website reads like they are selling these to the common man.

https://www.saab.com/products/iris-t

“ Being in control during air-to-air combat is everything. Control leads to confidence, and our precision IRIS-T missile gives you both.”

Ok, Saab. What’s the mpg and safety features ?

I just ordered one for my car.

[Unagi]

Exactly.
Control and confidence comes factory installed on all Saabs.

[Isgrimnur]

I have to imaging that somewhere , someone is eager to give these systems some serious field tests.

All my homies loved the Spanish Civil War.

[LawBeefaroni]

This website reads like they are selling these to the common man.

https://www.saab.com/products/iris-t

“ Being in control during air-to-air combat is everything. Control leads to confidence, and our precision IRIS-T missile gives you both.”

Ok, Saab. What’s the mpg and safety features ?

I just ordered one for my car.

FWIW, Saab doesn't make them. Dieihl Defense does. Saab is just marketing them as available for Vigens like a car manufacturer might market a Blaupunkt audio system.

[Unagi]

What's a Vigen?

ahh like The Saab 37 Viggen

[Max Peck]

Probably actually for the Gripen, given that the Viggen is no longer in service.

[Unagi]

I'm sure you're right.

For me, it was just fun to get a window into the marketing language around an air-to-air missile webpage.

Reminded me a little of The Fifth Element

[Blackhawk]

This is where my mind went:

[Unagi]

Yeah, I also thought of that too! Heh.

[Max Peck]

It appears that Musk gets his Russian talking points fresh from the vine.

Elon Musk Spoke to Putin Before Tweeting Ukraine Peace Plan: Report

Elon Musk spoke directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin before tweeting a proposal to end the war in Ukraine that would have seen territory permanently ceded to Russia, it has been claimed.

In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be accomplished “no matter what,” including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome.”

In related news...

Bremmer wrote that Musk said he had refused a Ukrainian request to activate Starlink in Crimea. According to UK newspaper the Financial Times, Ukrainian forces have reported connectivity issues as they continue their counteroffensive into areas previously held by Russian forces in the east and north-east of the country. Musk responded by criticising the FT’s reporting, saying that what happens on the battlefield is “classified.”

[malchior]

Jesus. That's a pretty big claim. Musk runs companies with US defense contracts. That opens him to serious investigations and possible FARA issues. Though it's likely all informal stuff so maybe not.

[El Guapo]

How credible is Bremmer? Also, has he said how he knows? Including specific quotes suggests that he was on the call somehow. Only other option would be if he spoke directly with Musk afterwards, and neither of those seems especially likely.

[hepcat]