Octopus Overlords

Sort of good news and quietly sad at the same time. I'm just gonna attribute his gain in position to Trump. And I suppose it's eminently reasonable to excuse extramarital sexting when the candidate's opponent is facilitating the misrule of a president who is an outright sexual predator.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:12 am

Sort of good news and quietly sad at the same time. I'm just gonna attribute his gain in position to Trump. And I suppose it's eminently reasonable to excuse extramarital sexting when the candidate's opponent is facilitating the misrule of a president who is an outright sexual predator.

Exactly. The Republicans have officially given up on trying to be the moral authority under Trump and so how can they honestly expect a sexting scandal to move the needle one way or another at this point.

That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:33 am That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.

FWIW's 538's model gives Cunningham a 66% chance of winning currently (actually higher than Gideon in Maine, who is at 62% currently).

Though I'm more worried about voting conditions in NC than in ME.

Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:33 am That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.

Apparently having an affair is sort of the norm for Democratic senators from NC...

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:23 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:33 am That's good news. While I certainly am not a fan of Cal Cunningham sexting women other than his wife, it pales in comparison to what a lot of other GOP politicians have done. And I was absolutely convinced it was going to hurt him since I've learned never to underestimate the amount of hypocrisy people are capable of.

Apparently having an affair is sort of the norm for Democratic senators from NC...

Yeah, first thing I thought, "Dummy, did you not learn anything from John Edwards!"

Grifman wrote:Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

I think that is being misread. The projection is a gain between 2 and 7 seats. I don’t think they were projecting +2 and are now projecting +7.

A seven seat gain in the Senate would be an apocalypse level event in this election and would almost certainly come alongside a Biden tidal wave.

RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:53 pm

Grifman wrote:Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

I think that is being misread. The projection is a gain between 2 and 7 seats. I don’t think they were projecting +2 and are now projecting +7.

A seven seat gain in the Senate would be an apocalypse level event in this election and would almost certainly come alongside a Biden tidal wave.

No, I think he's reading that right.

"We are also increasing our current Senate projection from a gain of 2 to 7 seats for Democrats "

I read that as: We are increasing out projection from a projected gain of 2 to a projected gain of 7 seats.

It especially fits in with the second sentence. A 51-49 senate would be a net gain of 4 seats for Democrats, and it sounds like Republicans would be very lucky to have only lost a net 4 seats.

RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:53 pm

Grifman wrote:Cook Political projecting 7 seat Democratic gain in Senate:

I think that is being misread. The projection is a gain between 2 and 7 seats. I don’t think they were projecting +2 and are now projecting +7.

A seven seat gain in the Senate would be an apocalypse level event in this election and would almost certainly come alongside a Biden tidal wave.

Well bad on her for writing a poorly written tweet

Defiant wrote:

Well bad on her for writing a poorly written tweet

Yeah, it was clearly written poorly.

To be clear, though, a 7 seat democratic gain isn't far out scenario. 538's model gives about a 19% chance that the Democrats pick up that many seats *or more* (including a 0.1% chance of a 13 seat gain!).

Bear in mind that the Democrat is now narrowly favored in Iowa, for example.

RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:24 pm it was clearly written poorly.

That is a statement of beauty.

Also, as written in shorthand, I see "from a gain of 2 to 7" as way of saying from a gain of 2 to a gain of 7. Ironically, if that were written as a long hand statement as part of a larger examination, I would have mentally changed it "to a gain of 2 to 7" and interpret the meaning as intended, even though she's using the wrong preposition, implying she is about to state the previous projection rather than the revised projection. I think I need more drugs.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:25 pm To be clear, though, a 7 seat democratic gain isn't far out scenario. 538's model gives about a 19% chance that the Democrats pick up that many seats *or more* (including a 0.1% chance of a 13 seat gain!).

For comparison, that is only 4% more than they give for Trump winning.

If MJ Hager beats Cornyn in Texas, it will be the end of the Republican party. She has no business in the Senate at this point in her career. When she ran for a House seat, I would welcomed her in an instant. I donated to that campaign even though it's not my district and I'm doing so for her Senate campaign too.

I'm voting for her, but if I had any real other option, I would take it. She's way too inexperienced and her spam in my email box makes me cringe every time I see it. I can't imagine that's what's even keeping it close?

This is classic poor planning by the Democratic primary. Someone should have convinced Beto not to run for president, but instead to get that Senate seat.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:43 pm Someone should have convinced Beto not to run for president, but instead to get that Senate seat.

Beto running for president as a young senator could be JFK. Same for Buttigieg.

Heck, we could have two JFKs back to back. How awesome would that be?

I can't imagine Beto being able to do as well in the Senate race as he did in '18 after his politically idiotic comments about getting rid of guns and taxing churches.

Someone should have convinced Beto not to run for president,

I never got to vote for him. Biden is what is but I would have felt exceptionally good being able to vote for Beto in the primary.

To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.

Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:05 am To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.

It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.

So apparently, AOC suggested that people vote for Biden in the Working Family line (a progressive third party in New York that largely mirrors the Democratic candidates).

The thing is, AOC isn't on the Working Family line herself. And that's because she didn't get enough signatures on her petition, falling short of the 15 required.

That's not a typo.

The 15 required signatures were a result of an executive order signed by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo as a result of the coronavirus pandemic; the governor reduced the number of petitions required to make the ballot for political contests this year.

To secure a spot on the Working Families Party line, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez needed 14.58 signatures, which the Board of Elections rounded up to 15; Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s campaign submitted 14, and one was knocked out.

Oops

Not a big deal, but mildly amusing.

Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:05 am To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.

It was also her compassion during the Christchurch massacre along with the swift action on gun laws that added to her popularity. I think she would have been re-elected without COVID, but her handling of it certainly made Labour's victory a slam dunk.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.

Is that because the rest of his administration was so pristine the Democrats would have been hard pressed to find another issue?

When shooting for the big prize, always aim at the largest target. Right now it's Covid.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am

Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:05 am To step away from the US for a moment, the Prime Minister of New Zealand won reelection in a landslide and a majority of seats in the Parliament, their best showing for 50 years, in the aftermath of their successful handling of Covid.

It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.

I think for him to be cruising to reelection, he would have had to have a competent response (along the lines of Germany, say), and that's something that all the evidence suggests Trump would have been incapable of.

I think for a slightly competent response, it would be a close race (I could envision either being ahead in such a scenario)

Jeff V wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:34 pm

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.

Is that because the rest of his administration was so pristine the Democrats would have been hard pressed to find another issue?

I think a quarter million+ dead Americans are a little tougher to brush aside than his typical corruption and vileness.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:07 pm

Jeff V wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:34 pm

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:59 am It's somewhat scary to think that if Trump had even a slightly competent response to COVID, he'd likely be cruising to an easy re-election right now.

Is that because the rest of his administration was so pristine the Democrats would have been hard pressed to find another issue?

I think a quarter million+ dead Americans are a little tougher to brush aside than his typical corruption and vileness.

No doubt, and that's why it's the proverbial elephant in the room. But still, his level of vileness and corruption was not typical, it was spectacularly egregious. There would have been many viable avenues for the donkeys to stampede.

Ossoff currently has a slim lead. Perdue fleeing the final debate can't be a good look for him.

It's possible that (If Ossoff wins this and Warnock wins the special election, as he might) Georgia will suddenly have two Dem senators.

Oh, and definitely watch the video in the first tweet above. You can actually see Perdue's soul leaving his body as Ossoff eviscerates him on healthcare.

We're not done with you yet, 2020 elections forecasting! Or maybe this is "too soon to start thinking about 2021?" instead as the election's in January...



My expectation is still that the Republicans will probably hold both seats, but the Democrats absolutely have a shot, at least.

Perdue keeps getting hammered by new revelations of what looks like insider trading. (The joke now is, "If you don't send him back to the Senate, how will he know where to invest?")

Loeffler just seems to be shriveling.

It's Georgia, though, and Georgia always lets you down.

Holman wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:49 pm Perdue keeps getting hammered by new revelations of what looks like insider trading. (The joke now is, "If you don't send him back to the Senate, how will he know where to invest?")

Loeffler just seems to be shriveling.

It's Georgia, though, and Georgia always lets you down.

Not always.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:52 pm Not always.

Tell it to my high-school years!

El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:03 pm

Try 1983-87. And I was talking about girls.

Isgrimnur wrote:In what can only be described as blindness to irony, my back yard neighbors are flying a Trump 2020 flag out back, subtitled No More Bullshit.

The flag lost a grommet at one point, was snagged on their adjacent tree, and generally worse for wear. It and the pole came down at some point this week.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:13 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:In what can only be described as blindness to irony, my back yard neighbors are flying a Trump 2020 flag out back, subtitled No More Bullshit.

The flag lost a grommet at one point, was snagged on their adjacent tree, and generally worse for wear. It and the pole came down at some point this week.

So they're open to More Bullshit now?

One can only hope.