Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:27 pm
It's Texas, remember.
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/
It's Texas, remember.
I expect his name helps him among the Hispanic voters, since he polls higher among them than the usual Republican (a recent poll I saw had him pulling 45+% among Hispanics)
and...The high fundraising totals, unusual but not unprecedented for challengers, are a sign of Democratic enthusiasm as the party seeks to pick up at least the 23 seats that would give it a majority in the chamber. The fundraising comes in close districts Democrats will need to win in November.
There may be bigger totals to come. Candidates aren’t required to release third quarter fundraising totals to the Federal Election Commission until Oct. 15.
A civil rights group is investigating reports of a fake mailer circulating in College Station that warns of a $500 fine for displaying signs supporting U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke.
The letter, recently obtained by the Texas Civil Rights Project, features a “CITATION WARNING,” “quick facts about” O’Rourke and a ”‘BETO’ REALITY CHECK” that includes the comments “NOT HISPANIC,” “FELONY ARREST RECORD,” “INSIDER TRADING VIOLATIONS,” “FATHER’S DRUG SCANDAL” and “FAMILY BUSINESS FEDERALLY PROSECUTED,” according to images of the letter the organization shared on social media Tuesday. The letter appears to end with “These issues have not been effectively reported to Texas voters.”
The envelope for the letter had a fake Austin return address, the organization’s voting rights legal director, Beth Stevens, told the American-Statesman. It appears the letter was processed and sent through a post office in North Houston, she said.
...
Stevens said the organization has contacted the Texas secretary of state’s office and might work with a law enforcement agency on the matter.
Well, it's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago?
The Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?Holman wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pmIt's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago?
i don't read the news or talk politics anymore in real life. Its too depressing. We need a revolution a revolt or a popular coup to really put things back on track.Holman wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pmIt's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago?
Melting away? It's fairly ambiguous.
True to form, there have been some of the same sorts of arguments about the polls that I’m used to in presidential years, with competing narratives that may or may not square with the data. One plausible narrative is that the Kavanaugh hearings are helping to excite Republican voters and reduce the “enthusiasm gap” with Democrats. As The Upshot’s Nate Cohn points out, you can cobble together a credible case that polls since last Thursday’s Senate hearings have been comparatively good for Republicans. You could cite, for example, cite two new North Dakota polls showing Democratic incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp down by double digits, or the several polls showing a close-ish Senate race in New Jersey, or a Quinnipiac University poll showing Democrats’ generic ballot lead down to 7 points from 14 points previously, or Upshot/Siena College polls showing GOP incumbents holding up well in districts in southwestern Ohio and coastal Virginia.
By the same measure, if you were trying to cite a series of strong Democratic polls since the hearings, you wouldn’t have much problem. You could highlight recent polls showing good numbers for West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, or several recent surveys that found Florida Sen. Bill Nelson having taken a small lead, or an Ipsos poll showing Democrats expanding their lead on the generic ballot since the hearings, or double-digit leads for Democrats in Upshot/Siena polls of congressional districts in Arizona and Minnesota. And there are some plausible stories behind this hypothesis, too. Kavanaugh was not a popular pick to begin with, and he has become more unpopular still in some (although not all) polls. He’s also particularly unpopular with groups such as college-educated women who typically turn out at high rates at the midterms.
Everything you're saying leads to the worst possible result for a people seeking justice, liberty, and self-determination.Drazzil wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:14 pm
i don't read the news or talk politics anymore in real life. Its too depressing. We need a revolution a revolt or a popular coup to really put things back on track.
Our government needs to be afraid of its people to be truly representative. Afraid either of the next election, or, afraid of the pitchforks and torches.
US politicians are neither. They have learned that they can blame some "other" group for its own dysfunction, and things keep rolling forward till the wheels fall off.
I'm kinda hoping for a major economic collapse to show people up close that our politicians and government are truly shitty, however I worry that once that happens, people wont be in much of a mood to follow legal process.
I don't want to undercut your point, which is more often true than not true, but France and the USA would like a word with you.Holman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:47 am Everything you're saying leads to the worst possible result for a people seeking justice, liberty, and self-determination.
Bloody revolutions produce dictatorships. Economic collapse produces fascism.
Fantasies of sharp radical solutions are a big part of the problem.
Plus the French Revolution wasn't an armed revolution.
No. It was a Republic after the revolution *then* Napoleon happened.
Also the post-Soviet revolutions weren't violent. Some protesters getting shot during the course of a mass movement does not make the revolution violent - that definition would make literally every revolution violent, because even the most peaceful movement against a government provokes at least *some* violence.Holman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:19 pm Just to throw 2 more cents in:
The French Revolution produced the Terror, which was a nightmare on every level. Napoleon was the authoritarian reaction sweeping in to pick up the pieces after exploiting the instability of the Directorate.
The American Revolution was (as El Guapo points out) really a War of Independence.
It's hard to think of any violent political revolutions that haven't left people worse off than before. The obvious examples are the soft post-Soviet revolutions of Eastern Europe, but these were again populations united in separation from an outside power, itself in the peculiar political position of being unable to context the breaks militarily.
Anything that could be called a revolutionary outbreak in the present American context would very quickly become a civil war.
Right. I clumsily failed to specify them as successful non-violent examples in contrast to violent ones, but that was my intention.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:24 pmAlso the post-Soviet revolutions weren't violent.Holman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:19 pm Just to throw 2 more cents in:
The French Revolution produced the Terror, which was a nightmare on every level. Napoleon was the authoritarian reaction sweeping in to pick up the pieces after exploiting the instability of the Directorate.
The American Revolution was (as El Guapo points out) really a War of Independence.
It's hard to think of any violent political revolutions that haven't left people worse off than before. The obvious examples are the soft post-Soviet revolutions of Eastern Europe, but these were again populations united in separation from an outside power, itself in the peculiar political position of being unable to context the breaks militarily.
Anything that could be called a revolutionary outbreak in the present American context would very quickly become a civil war.
I agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.Apollo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pmThe Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?Holman wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pmIt's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago?
And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.
The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
Are you saying that Mitch McConnell would not have abolished the judicial filibuster when the Democrats started using it? Do you recall that McConnell abolished the SCOTUS judicial filibuster as soon as it was an obstacle?Grifman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pmI agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.Apollo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pmThe Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?Holman wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pmIt's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago?
And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.
The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
Maybe you could look at it that way if their goal was to undermine the process for both parties, forever. Is it really considered outplaying someone if you take a big dump in the only clean drinking water for both sides? (Note: I'm playing a lot of ONI right now).
I’m not forgetting anything. Are you forgetting that McConnell only abolished the SCOTUS filibuster AFTER the Dems had busted the judicial filibuster first? Going from no judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster is a much smaller leap than going from the judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster. The Dems opened the door to that. Would McConnell have taken both steps of breaking precedent? As much as I despise him, no, I don’t think he would have - that would have been a bridge too far. Even villains need excuses.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:21 pmAre you saying that Mitch McConnell would not have abolished the judicial filibuster when the Democrats started using it? Do you recall that McConnell abolished the SCOTUS judicial filibuster as soon as it was an obstacle?Grifman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pmI agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.Apollo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pmThe Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?Holman wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pmIt's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago?
And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.
The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
Both of those are clearly the Dems fault though.gbasden wrote: ↑Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:59 pm Yeah. So far I haven't seen limits to what they are willing to do in order to get their objectives met. If they were willing to steal a supreme court seat by sitting on it for a year, changing the filibuster rules to push their guy through doesn't exactly seem like a bridge too far.
They are the root of what ails America, clearly.GreenGoo wrote: ↑Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:08 pmBoth of those are clearly the Dems fault though.gbasden wrote: ↑Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:59 pm Yeah. So far I haven't seen limits to what they are willing to do in order to get their objectives met. If they were willing to steal a supreme court seat by sitting on it for a year, changing the filibuster rules to push their guy through doesn't exactly seem like a bridge too far.
Yes, yes he would have. No question at all. Don't forget that the reason that the Democrats nuked the judicial filibuster is because Republicans refused to confirm ANYONE for the D.C. Circuit, regardless of whether they were qualified or not. McConnell's excuse then? "Oh, we have enough judges already".Grifman wrote: ↑Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:01 amI’m not forgetting anything. Are you forgetting that McConnell only abolished the SCOTUS filibuster AFTER the Dems had busted the judicial filibuster first? Going from no judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster is a much smaller leap than going from the judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster. The Dems opened the door to that. Would McConnell have taken both steps of breaking precedent? As much as I despise him, no, I don’t think he would have - that would have been a bridge too far. Even villains need excuses.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:21 pmAre you saying that Mitch McConnell would not have abolished the judicial filibuster when the Democrats started using it? Do you recall that McConnell abolished the SCOTUS judicial filibuster as soon as it was an obstacle?Grifman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pmI agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.Apollo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pmThe Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?Holman wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pmIt's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago?
And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.
The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
Governors races are completely different beasts from congressional races. That Hogan (and Baker in MA) are going to cruise to reelection doesn't tell us as much about the "blue wave" as does the congressional polling, special election results, etc.pr0ner wrote: ↑Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:34 am In a sign that the blue wave isn't ever reaching, in very Democratic leaning Maryland, incumbent Republican governor Larry Hogan (the 2nd most popular governor in the country behind Charlie Baker) currently has a 20 point lead in the polls over Democratic challenger Ben Jealous.
To be fair to Jealous, he won the Democratic nomination in an upset, but I don't think any Democrat really stood a chance against Hogan, even in a blue state like Maryland.
Sure you are factually correct but what you are talking about lacks context. Reid only dropped it after the Republicans blocked 80+ nominees to various positions. The GOP blocked as many nominees in 4 years as had pretty much *ever* happened before. So when you ask would McConnell have done it? Yes. Absolutely yes. He was already doing it. He blocked a SCOTUS seat from even having a hearing on some cocked up policy that he has been redefining ever sense to make it only break his way. When the rules don't favor his total desire for power, he changes them. How much evidence do we need that he is a complete monster?Grifman wrote: ↑Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:01 am I’m not forgetting anything. Are you forgetting that McConnell only abolished the SCOTUS filibuster AFTER the Dems had busted the judicial filibuster first? Going from no judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster is a much smaller leap than going from the judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster. The Dems opened the door to that. Would McConnell have taken both steps of breaking precedent? As much as I despise him, no, I don’t think he would have - that would have been a bridge too far. Even villains need excuses.
Basically unless something changes dramatically the Democrats are going to gain seats in the House. The open ended question is whether they will gain enough for a majority. Right now a Democratic majority (going by polls and fundamentals) is probable but far from certain (538 puts it at a little under 80%).
Oh, totally fair. Also (in part because Democrats are looking competitive-ish in a LOT of red / fringy kinds of districts, a lot of the available polling is super close in many districts (plus, there's not a wealth of polling in individual House races, or even a lot of Senate races). So given the thin margins and not full robust polling, a small nudge one way or the other close to the election could make a big difference - a nationwide swing of a point or two could be the difference between Democrats gaining (say) a dozen House seats (short of a majority) or gaining something like 50 - 80 seats (way above what they need).