The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[malchior]

FWIW it seems people are noting that they are only looking to unseal the warrant itself which Trump's lawyer has. He is basically taking something that is already releasable off the table as a talking point. It doesn't seem like it'll be the affidavit that explains the rationale.

Edit: I heard the affidavit part right the first time. According to Andrew Weissman, DOJ would give Trump's lawyers a look at the affadavit ahead of a decision to unseal to give them a chance to object. Allowing Trump's team to use the information advantage to further attack the DOJ.

This is a good point. My thought was of course he made a spectacle of it. It seems like they are so apolitical that they didn't avoid obviously political consequences that forced them to act.

[Unagi]

It appears the DOJ is standing on the ground that the people would back this based on the release of the documents. Or force Trump to argue in court they shouldn't release the documents.

I think this will be something big.

I'll make up something: Was he sitting on critical information about other governments or our nuclear arsenal, etc - and he claimed to not have this information - while secretly planning to sell it soon to Russia, etc.

Obviously, I'm being pretty absurd and Hollywood with my story there (I hope), but I wonder if it will be something that makes (most) people see Trump as an enemy of the State.

[Grifman]

So a big fat nothing as always. Cool

So what exactly did you expect or reasonablely hope for? An indictment? An arrest?

[Octavious]

Tigers? A pony? I don't know anymore.

[malchior]

It appears the DOJ is standing on the ground that the people would back this based on the release of the documents. Or force Trump to argue in court they shouldn't release the documents.

I think this will be something big.

I think the opposite. They wouldn't release anything of import even redacted if it was sensitive I think it'll be relatively straightforward and mundane. And that'd be due process/rule of law at its best.

[Grifman]

[Unagi]

That’s more or less like it feels to me.

I feel like Garland has something we don’t know.

[malchior]

That is too close to Mueller knows more...and look where that got us. Until proven otherwise I'm incredibly skeptical of these big storylines.

On another note, just had a good conversation with a colleague who doesn't know much about the current situation but has worked in this space directly. He mentioned something interesting. This could be a freak out over an unconfirmed national security data breach. In essence, the national archives has an idea what Trump had received in his time at the WH. They don't know what he had at Mar-A-Lago. That at a base level has all sorts of data handling issues. Who has access to the data, who can move it around, etc. But also importantly they might not know if anything is MISSING or not.

[stessier]

The motion to unseal.

[Holman]

Obviously, I'm being pretty absurd and Hollywood with my story there (I hope), but I wonder if it will be something that makes (most) people see Trump as an enemy of the State.

My (uninformed) guess is that he took to MAL a whole lot of anything he thought would make him look bad or that he could use to make a buck. I really don't suspect him of planning to sell state secrets, but (e.g.) a list of the bank accounts and assets of foreign oligarchs could be worth a lot to a grifter like Trump.

When first approached, the boxes he handed over probably contained stuff like the above (and Jared will have copied the valuable bits by now anyway).

What he held onto, and which was recovered in this week's raid, is probably anything he thinks could lend credence to charges of Russian meddling or point towards his misusing his authority. There were almost certainly many "perfect messages" to go along with those "perfect phone calls" we happen to know about.

[Grifman]

That is too close to Mueller knows more...and look where that got us. Until proven otherwise I'm incredibly skeptical of these big storylines.

On another note, just had a good conversation with a colleague who doesn't know much about the current situation but has worked in this space directly. He mentioned something interesting. This could be a freak out over an unconfirmed national security data breach. In essence, the national archives has an idea what Trump had received in his time at the WH. They don't know what he had at Mar-A-Lago. That at a base level has all sorts of data handling issues. Who has access to the data, who can move it around, etc. But also importantly they might not know if anything is MISSING or not.

They had an informant who told them exactly what Trump had and where he had it according to several press accounts. They knew exactly what they were looking for. This was not a fishing expedition - doubt they could get a warrant for that.

[malchior]

That is too close to Mueller knows more...and look where that got us. Until proven otherwise I'm incredibly skeptical of these big storylines.

On another note, just had a good conversation with a colleague who doesn't know much about the current situation but has worked in this space directly. He mentioned something interesting. This could be a freak out over an unconfirmed national security data breach. In essence, the national archives has an idea what Trump had received in his time at the WH. They don't know what he had at Mar-A-Lago. That at a base level has all sorts of data handling issues. Who has access to the data, who can move it around, etc. But also importantly they might not know if anything is MISSING or not.

They had an informant who told them exactly what Trump had and where he had it according to several press accounts.

We'll hopefully know more soon but several folks have said the term 'informant' might not be accurate. NARA and eventually the FBI and DOJ have apparently repeatedly met and interviewed with folks involved. Those folks might have given them cause to dig in further. Some in the media are frankly being irresponsible and reporting this in some ominous way like someone flipped on him or something. It's possible that happened but definitely not confirmed.

They knew exactly what they were looking for.

This is speculation. They knew he had Presidential records. They knew where they were and asked for them to be further secured. Still there were already accounts that the first set of records had unexpected classified materials which surprised NARA and were some of the basis of this investigation.

This was not a fishing expedition - doubt they could get a warrant for that.

Not knowing the exact composition of the classified materials doesn't turn it into a fishing expedition. Classified materials get misfiled even when folks are being diligent. Accidental leaks are a constant problem. And Trump is hardly the model of a diligent custodian. When they scoped the warrant, I have no doubt they were specific up to the point it needed to be to satisfy main Justice and the court and no further. They wouldn't have wanted to limit their options by getting too tight.

[Isgrimnur]

[Holman]

[Unagi]

I'll make up something: Was he sitting on critical information about other governments or our nuclear arsenal, etc - and he claimed to not have this information - while secretly planning to sell it soon to Russia, etc.

[Jaymann]

I'll make up something: Was he sitting on critical information about other governments or our nuclear arsenal, etc - and he claimed to not have this information - while secretly planning to sell it soon to Russia, etc.

Why not? They won't use the nukes on me.

[Grifman]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/p ... -ios-share

Mr. Garland provided no details, but the person briefed on the matter said investigators had been concerned about material from what the government calls “special access programs,” a designation even more classified than “top secret” that is typically reserved for extremely sensitive operations carried out by the United States abroad.

If true this is looking extremely serious for Trump. Why on earth was he keeping these documents? And how on earth did he think he was going to get away with it? None of this makes any sense.

[Unagi]

Enemy
Of
The
State

[Blackhawk]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/p ... -ios-share

Mr. Garland provided no details, but the person briefed on the matter said investigators had been concerned about material from what the government calls “special access programs,” a designation even more classified than “top secret” that is typically reserved for extremely sensitive operations carried out by the United States abroad.

If true this is looking extremely serious for Trump. Why on earth was he keeping these documents? And how on earth did he think he was going to get away with it? None of this makes any sense.

I was speculating with friends earlier - maybe he was hoping to use them as an escape hatch to Russia (or elsewhere.)

[Grifman]

Pure speculation but . . .

[Grifman]

Thread on security levels:

[Grifman]

The Espionage Act in 11 parts:

[Skinypupy]

Trump’s not opposing the warrant release.

We’ll see if his lawyers think differently by tomorrow’s deadline.



Worth remembering that while he makes a grand show of “allowing” them to be released, he could have done so himself anytime this week.

[Victoria Raverna]

Thread on security levels:

How can someone like Trump can gain clearance to access those data? I would think someone like him can't meet the requirement.

Or is there an exception to the rule? If you're the president, you have all access even if you're a risky and normally can't gain any clearance?

[stessier]

From what I've read, the President doesn't get a security clearance but he is the ultimate classification authority and has access to everything. Which makes sense when you think about the job requirements...and presupposes you don't let a Bad Actor into the position.

[malchior]

Yep. The President is the decision authority by law. That is why a lot of national security people were always nervous with Trump. He is a manifestly unserious person who constantly endangered national security daily during his Presidency.

He also overrode the vetting process on occasion which led to unqualified, unscrupulous people being granted security clearances who ordinarily would have never made it through the background checks like Kushner.

[Grifman]

Thread on security levels:

How can someone like Trump can gain clearance to access those data? I would think someone like him can't meet the requirement.

Or is there an exception to the rule? If you're the president, you have all access even if you're a risky and normally can't gain any clearance?

He’s the President, that is all the security clearance he needs. You can’t very well have a president who doesn’t have the highest security clearance. For example, you couldn’t have a president who doesn’t control nuclear weapons. Or how could he order military operations without the necessary high level security info? The Constitution sets the requirements for president and it says nothing about being able to pass a security check.

[Octavious]

They will block it. Trump will say I really want to but my lawyers wouldn't allow it. That's why he tweeted that crap last night.

Having the information out there doesn't help him. Stall deflect. Stall deflect. I would super love to be wrong though.

And now he's running with the planting stuff angle that was floated by others. I've never hated anyone more than this shit stain.

[Carpet_pissr]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/11/us/p ... -ios-share

Mr. Garland provided no details, but the person briefed on the matter said investigators had been concerned about material from what the government calls “special access programs,” a designation even more classified than “top secret” that is typically reserved for extremely sensitive operations carried out by the United States abroad.

If true this is looking extremely serious for Trump. Why on earth was he keeping these documents? And how on earth did he think he was going to get away with it? None of this makes any sense.

Hint: think about it from the perspective of someone who considers themself to be the rightful President. He’s still the President, just located in a different house. Hell, look at the memos and letterhead he sent out in the months after he “lost”. Why couldn’t the REAL President do this?

And/or it’s just typical Trump “rules don’t apply to me”, but considering the material, I personally have a much more cynical take.

[malchior]

FWIW I think a lot of the conclusions being jumped to out in the public space about this nuclear angle are ... sort of unrealistic. Like some are pushing he might be trying to transfer nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. Do we honestly think weapons designs made it into the oval office? Especially one that Trump was in? I'm purely speculating but I think these would be procedural documents. The type you don't want the adversary to see because it'd give you an idea into how nuclear American command and control works.

[LordMortis]

Worth remembering that while he makes a grand show of “allowing” them to be released, he could have done so himself anytime this week.

I would release my taxes and be open about my income but I'm audit.
...
I'm always under audit
...

Then come the court fight years later...

His statements. His word. Mean nothing.

I am glad they are unsealing things for the purposes of my own insight into transparency (I'm tired of being told there will cake) but it means nothing to Trump and his sycophants, bigots, and zealots either way. All that matters is that they get marching orders and insinuations from his Truth.

[El Guapo]

FWIW I think a lot of the conclusions being jumped to out in the public space about this nuclear angle are ... sort of unrealistic. Like some are pushing he might be trying to transfer nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. Do we honestly think weapons designs made it into the oval office? Especially one that Trump was in? I'm purely speculating but I think these would be procedural documents. The type you don't want the adversary to see because it'd give you an idea into how nuclear American command and control works.

It's interesting. To me the most likely chain of events given everything that we saw at MAL during the Trump presidency is that Trump was keeping all kinds of shit there so that he could work there instead of at the White House, and that as a result some scattering of stuff was left there at the end of the presidency because Trump couldn't be bothered to return anything. So while I doubt that Trump smuggled out documents to sell, I think there's a high chance that very sensitive stuff was left there, and that once various foreign intelligence folk understand that, they would likely start looking into how they could get ahold of it.

Of course, given how cautious and careful the Trump people were, I would think that any respectable intelligence agency would've gotten ahold of what they wanted a long time ago, and likely for free (beyond the MAL entry fee bribes).

But regardless this also makes the politics even better for Democrats - just being able to say "Trump was keeping classified nuclear secrets after the presidency at Mar-A-Lago" is a great sentence. Of course, I'm sure that with the help of various talking heads they'll still botch it, but still.

[El Guapo]

ALSO - from the 2017 (!) Onion: Mar-A-Lago Assistant Manager Wondering If Anyone Coming To Collect Nuclear Briefcase From Lost And Found

PALM BEACH, FL—Noting that it had already been there for almost two weeks, Mar-a-Lago assistant manager Chris Mahoney reportedly wondered Monday if anyone was coming to collect the nuclear briefcase from the club’s lost-and-found. “Someone noticed it in the dining room and dropped it off, and it’s just been sitting at the bottom of the bin ever since,” said Mahoney, adding that he had been asking people coming to collect their lost scarves and sunglasses if they might also have misplaced a briefcase attached to a pair of handcuffs. “You’d think whoever it belongs to would have realized that they lost it by now. Well, I’ll give it a few more weeks—if no one claims it after 60 days, it’s up for grabs, and I can see if someone on my staff wants it.” At press time, a man had mistakenly claimed the briefcase as his own before getting home to discover all the unfamiliar buttons inside.

[Kurth]

But regardless this also makes the politics even better for Democrats - just being able to say "Trump was keeping classified nuclear secrets after the presidency at Mar-A-Lago" is a great sentence. Of course, I'm sure that with the help of various talking heads they'll still botch it, but still.

Huh? From where I sit, this does NOT make the politics better for Democrats. Not in any way shape or form.

Did the FBI just reelect Donald Trump?

The investigation into Mr. Trump was seen purely as a heinous Regime plot. At least for now, the search has shaken the Republican political landscape. Several weeks ago, about half of Republican voters were ready to move on from Mr. Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. This week the entire party seemed to rally behind him. Republican strategists advising Mr. Trump’s potential primary opponents had reason to be despondent. “Completely handed him a lifeline,” one such strategist told Politico. “Unbelievable … It put everybody in the wagon for Mr. Trump again. It’s just taken the wind out of everybody’s sails.”


According to a Trafalgar Group/Convention of States Action survey, 83% of likely Republican voters said the FBI search made them more motivated to vote in the 2022 elections. More than 75% of likely Republican voters believed Mr. Trump’s political enemies were behind the search rather than the impartial justice system, as did 48% of likely general election voters overall.

The investigation(s) into Trump have always been one of those “you come at the king, you best not miss” deals. He needs to be put away. Behind bars. Short of that, these investigations just help to prop him up.

[LordMortis]

The investigation(s) into Trump have always been one of those “you come at the king, you best not miss” deals. He needs to be put away. Behind bars. Short of that, these investigations just help to prop him up.

I think investigations that seem promising but under deliver also continue to deflate the left. Of course that might just be me projecting... I'm not sure if you can call me independent any more, even as I don't see a situation where I'd self identify as a democrat.

[malchior]

Did the FBI just reelect Donald Trump?

The investigation into Mr. Trump was seen purely as a heinous Regime plot. At least for now, the search has shaken the Republican political landscape. Several weeks ago, about half of Republican voters were ready to move on from Mr. Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. This week the entire party seemed to rally behind him. Republican strategists advising Mr. Trump’s potential primary opponents had reason to be despondent. “Completely handed him a lifeline,” one such strategist told Politico. “Unbelievable … It put everybody in the wagon for Mr. Trump again. It’s just taken the wind out of everybody’s sails.”


According to a Trafalgar Group/Convention of States Action survey, 83% of likely Republican voters said the FBI search made them more motivated to vote in the 2022 elections. More than 75% of likely Republican voters believed Mr. Trump’s political enemies were behind the search rather than the impartial justice system, as did 48% of likely general election voters overall.

The investigation(s) into Trump have always been one of those “you come at the king, you best not miss” deals. He needs to be put away. Behind bars. Short of that, these investigations just help to prop him up.

I read that Brooks piece and thought it was a good contrast to the Goldberg op ed where she argues that it's absurd to treat Trump as above the law. They both have points. I think Goldberg's argument that elite impunity has led us here is strong but it's also not timely anymore. The Republican base is anti-elite. They've been anti-elite since well before Trump. It's 100x worse now. That's a big part of the problem. We have an extremely high percentage of the population that essentially wants the whole system to collapse, and it's getting worse so we'll continue to see pressure mount on our democracy.

And that leads directly to the Brooks line where he wonders if there is a honorable way out. These viewpoints are in many ways two views of the same problem. This nation is on the verge of exploding. And we are wasting time kvetching about whether acting like a rule of law nation props up Trump or not? We either are a rule of law nation or we aren't. The real question for me is why folks like Biden and Garland are still acting like we aren't in a crisis and adapting to the house on fire everyone sees. They seem to be always reacting and far, far behind the events.

Anyway, again my belief is that banking on the assumption that locking up Trump improves this seemingly existential crisis measurably is not realistic. That's fantasy thinking. We don't know that and we can't assume that. Ignoring Trump crime has different terrible outcomes too. Looking at how this week went it isn't hard to conclude we're simply fucked.

[El Guapo]

But regardless this also makes the politics even better for Democrats - just being able to say "Trump was keeping classified nuclear secrets after the presidency at Mar-A-Lago" is a great sentence. Of course, I'm sure that with the help of various talking heads they'll still botch it, but still.

Huh? From where I sit, this does NOT make the politics better for Democrats. Not in any way shape or form.

To be clear what I was referring to is that the documents apparently relate to nuclear weapons. I think most members of the public have a visceral reaction to "nuclear weapons related secrets" than if the documents related to intelligence processes, even if the latter were more useful to foreign intelligence agencies.

That said, the idea that the GOP base was just about to abandon Trump but for this search seems farcical to me.

[malchior]

That said, the idea that the GOP base was just about to abandon Trump but for this search seems farcical to me.

Thanks for reminding me. That was by far the weakest part of the piece. How many stories have we heard that Trump was on the ropes while he still was ahead in every poll of Republican candidates. Everyone knows the second he announces they'll almost certainly rally to him.

[Skinypupy]

After thinking on it further last night, here's the part I'm struggling with.

If the documents he kept were so incredibly sensitive that they endangered national security, why did the DOJ wait 18 months to retrieve them, and then only did so after asking Trump nicely a few times before going in to get them. Maybe it's just a "wheels of justice turn slowly" sort of thing or that the precedent of going after a former POTUS like that simply takes an inordinate amount of time, but it seems like that there would have been much more urgency.

The other option is that they didn't know until recently exactly what he had stashed away, and they moved quickly once they found out.

[gilraen]

The other option is that they didn't know until recently exactly what he had stashed away, and they moved quickly once they found out.

My understanding is that it's this ^ (they moved once they got a tip from a "confidential informant" who provided details on what was really in those boxes)