The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Unagi]

Did Melania just want that shit cleared out of the house?

[malchior]

Shockingly irresponsible...is what I'd say if the "top" media figures weren't absolutely terrible and made the sentiment redundant.

[Isgrimnur]

Interesting twist on the story.

For Mortis and others who don't like twitter threads.

[Kraken]

Interesting twist on the story.

For Mortis and others who don't like twitter threads.

Thanks, I never click through to twitter threads either.

[LordMortis]

Interesting twist on the story.

For Mortis and others who don't like twitter threads.

[Carpet_pissr]

Trump pleaded the Fifth more than 440x during his deposition in NY apparently.

“You know who takes the Fifth? The mafia. You don’t take the Fifth if you’re innocent”.
Of course, and obviously, that quote is from the ever slimy DJT (I believe the context was him blasting Hillary’s ppl for pleading the 5th on some issue)

Nary a hair on my nigh invisible eyebrows twitched when I read that.

[Unagi]

Adverse inference permitted

[malchior]

There was a lot of talk about that. I take it as a bit of a proxy that someone had a tough talk with him that he needed to take this seriously. Which is good step in the right direction IMO, it might be delayed but we badly need justice. Unfortunately we are seeing how bad things really are. The right has gone mad, the press is megaphoning them and saying their concerns need to be addressed, and lots of us are convinced it's all broken. To me it feels like we keep seeing pressure on this system ratcheting up ever higher without relief.

Adverse inference permitted

Right. It is a sign that he is willing to take big risks with the family business right now. But also maybe it's part of another elaborate stall.

[malchior]

WaPo OpEd chastising media

Just as with the “big lie” of a stolen election, the GOP’s newest big lie — that the FBI is abusing its power in searching former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home for improperly removed documents — is as dangerous as it is false.

Republicans are using the incendiary claim — including comparisons of the FBI’s lawfully executed warrant to Nazi violence — to rile up their base and undermine the rule of law. They risk inciting violence from the same unhinged forces that stormed the U.S. Capitol.

...

The FBI search was no lark. A grand jury was impaneled in the spring to look into document removal; the search required a showing of probable cause before a federal magistrate.

GOP leaders vowing to investigate the FBI — in essence, stop the investigation in order to protect Trump — have no basis for their accusations of abuse of power. They certainly know a warrant requires probable cause, meaning the judicial branch has weighed in on the propriety of the search. Having joined in on the calls to “lock her up!” when Hillary Clinton was the subject of an FBI investigation, they ostensibly know these are serious matters.

Nevertheless, once more many in the media are uncritically regurgitating GOP false accusations, sharing Republicans’ obscene comparisons of the FBI to Nazis and even repeating ridiculous conspiracy theories that evidence was planted. In doing so, the media are amplifying ominous warnings — threats, really — that the FBI will regret this. Far too many outlets take at face value that Republicans are “outraged” rather than acknowledging that many Republicans fully understand the search warrant process and are trying to whip up their base.

When considering an invitation to Republican propagandists to appear on TV or when airing their attacks on law enforcement (who must execute warrants every day, running the risk of violent responses), the media might want to rethink their role in helping to stoke another MAGA meltdown. At the very least, they should ask Republicans some tough questions: (note this is where she provides a long list of great questions)

...

This is yet another dangerous moment in which Republicans are fanning the flames of indignation with lies, unfounded accusations and baseless conspiracy theories. This time, the media should reflect on its own role in enabling the GOP to tear down our democracy.

[Zaxxon]

The WaPo should talk to the WaPo about that.

[malchior]

The WaPo should talk to the WaPo about that.

I'm sure some did. I imagine it was a few voices arguing against a small group of execs yelling MORE CLICKS.

[LordMortis]

The WaPo should talk to the WaPo about that.

WaPo reached out the WaPo for comment. WaPo has yet to respond to the inquiry.

[Holman]

In what is surely unrelated news, a gunman attacked the Cincinnati FBI office this morning. The suspect has since fled and is apparently in a standoff with police.

[Jaymann]

Why is it always a corn field?

[Isgrimnur]

[malchior]

In what is surely unrelated news, a gunman attacked the Cincinnati FBI office this morning.

It's almost like there are consequences when you just pump out constant paranoia and outrage into the public square.

[Grifman]

In what is surely unrelated news, a gunman attacked the Cincinnati FBI office this morning.

It's almost like there are consequences when you just pump out constant paranoia and outrage into the public square.

The right wing insurgency begins?

[Octavious]

Apparently they are going to have a Trump parade on Saturday in NJ. I seriously don't get this f'n cult that has built around this moron. Thank god I don't live close to Bedminster as that place is now a magnet for MAGA idiots.

[malchior]

NY Times

This is a tricky piece of writing. This account came from Trump folks clearly trying to spin this so the NY Times went out of their way to show us the entire magic trick. It however bolsters the idea that this was first and foremost about recovering extremely sensitive national security documents.

Edit: To summarize the scam line - Trump's people are claiming he was cooperating with the subpoena and the DOJ search warrant was politically motivated. The counter to that argument is that they took boxes of materials. The NY Times *of course* throws some water on that by quoting unnamed sources saying some of the boxes were "not filled to the brim". Whatever the fuck that means. It's the usual Maggie Haberman game of walking the access line on a tightrope. But still a tricky piece of writing in the end.

Former President Donald J. Trump received a subpoena this spring in search of documents that federal investigators believed he had failed to turn over earlier in the year, when he returned boxes of material he had improperly taken with him upon moving out of the White House, three people familiar with the matter said.

The existence of the subpoena helps to flesh out the sequence of events that led to the search of Mr. Trump’s Florida home on Monday by F.B.I. agents seeking classified material they believed might still be there, even after efforts by the National Archives and the Justice Department to ensure that it had been returned.

The subpoena suggests that the Justice Department tried methods short of a search warrant to account for the material before taking the politically explosive step of sending F.B.I. agents unannounced to Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s home and members-only club.

Two people briefed on the classified documents that investigators believe remained at Mar-a-Lago indicated that they were so sensitive in nature, and related to national security, that the Justice Department had to act.

[Smoove_B]

Two people briefed on the classified documents that investigators believe remained at Mar-a-Lago indicated that they were so sensitive in nature, and related to national security, that the Justice Department had to act.

Here's what I don't get though. Assuming that's what this is all about (and it's yet to be verified), he's had these documents since ~January of 2021. Why did it take until August of 2022 for someone at the DoJ to finally decide, yup, these are so sensitive that we need to get them immediately.

[malchior]

Two people briefed on the classified documents that investigators believe remained at Mar-a-Lago indicated that they were so sensitive in nature, and related to national security, that the Justice Department had to act.

Here's what I don't get though. Assuming that's what this is all about (and it's yet to be verified), he's had these documents since ~January of 2021. Why did it take until August of 2022 for someone at the DoJ to finally decide, yup, these are so sensitive that we need to get them immediately.

Garland probably had to be convinced. If I was to force rank his prioritization of concerns it might very well shake out this way (nominally): Protecting the Constitution, protecting the Office of the President, protecting the DOJ, and dead last giving two shits about the death of our democracy if he doesn't act expeditiously...because it might look political. In the end, he is a man who'd be a great rebuilder if the house wasn't still on fire. He might have been perfectly suited for say the Ford or Carter administration where the danger was mostly past.

[malchior]

Let's see if he makes a mistake under pressure. It's also possible he'll make remarks about the attack on the FBI building as well.

[Jaymann]

Finally issuing an indictment of Florida Man?

[malchior]

Finally issuing an indictment of Florida Man?

Sub 1% of that happening...ever.*

*Not scientific in any way - just the way it feels.

[Alefroth]

Finally issuing an indictment of Florida Man?

I'm off until Monday. Might as well start the civil war now.

[El Guapo]

Two people briefed on the classified documents that investigators believe remained at Mar-a-Lago indicated that they were so sensitive in nature, and related to national security, that the Justice Department had to act.

Here's what I don't get though. Assuming that's what this is all about (and it's yet to be verified), he's had these documents since ~January of 2021. Why did it take until August of 2022 for someone at the DoJ to finally decide, yup, these are so sensitive that we need to get them immediately.

Garland probably had to be convinced. If I was to force rank his prioritization of concerns it might very well shake out this way (nominally): Protecting the Constitution, protecting the Office of the President, protecting the DOJ, and dead last giving two shits about the death of our democracy if he doesn't act expeditiously...because it might look political. In the end, he is a man who'd be a great rebuilder if the house wasn't still on fire. He might have been perfectly suited for say the Ford or Carter administration where the danger was mostly past.

For one, I'm not sure that we really know when exactly the DOJ learned about these documents. Once they do, I would expect that they would go through a fairly lengthy process to try to get Trump to turn them over because the search warrant route was so fraught. Plus you add in a heaping dose of bureaucratic inertia. On top of that, there seems to be indications that DOJ may have gotten a witness recently as to the documents which would both increase the odds that you get the search warrant and successfully get the documents, but which also has a time limit component (the farther out from the witness's info the less likely the search warrant and the less likely the search is to be successful).

[El Guapo]

Finally issuing an indictment of Florida Man?

Sub 1% of that happening...ever.*

*Not scientific in any way - just the way it feels.

FWIW given the appearances now of actual DOJ investigations of various types, I think the odds are considerably higher than that. Still not great, but I'd say more like 20%?

Some big questions here are with the FBI raid, and whether it was just to recover documents or whether it had a broader purpose. Also if it's the former, how will this blowback / firestorm impact Garland's decision making? I could see it going either way: (1) it proves to him how explosive anything like this is, causing him to rule out indicting Trump absent really extreme circumstances; or (2) the blowback causes him to dig in in a stubborn way, and/or to conclude "well I'm already in a shitstorm, so might as well go all the way."

[malchior]

The big surprise was the subpoena according to people I respect. That route was apparently thought to be risky and almost unheard of to recover national security sensitive documents because it could undermine the search warrant route. One issue as I understand it is that if your purpose is to protect classified documents then you'd potentially be inviting people to process the subpoena (e.g., search through the documents) and potentially undermine the secrecy you are trying to achieve. When you later go to try to say you need to documents back now then you've watered down the urgency. Anyway, we don't know much but a lot of folks are really scratching their heads right now about all this.

[Smoove_B]

For one, I'm not sure that we really know when exactly the DOJ learned about these documents. Once they do, I would expect that they would go through a fairly lengthy process to try to get Trump to turn them over because the search warrant route was so fraught. Plus you add in a heaping dose of bureaucratic inertia. On top of that, there seems to be indications that DOJ may have gotten a witness recently as to the documents which would both increase the odds that you get the search warrant and successfully get the documents, but which also has a time limit component (the farther out from the witness's info the less likely the search warrant and the less likely the search is to be successful).

Well, officially it's been at least since February of 2022 that it was made public. But it feels like someone must have known what had happened in the days and months between January of 2021 and February of 2022, no?

To be clear, I'm fully supportive of what was done. I just don't understand the delay (and I say this as someone that has experienced red tape at local, county and state levels) if the material in question was deemed important enough to ultimately coordinate an FBI recovery operation.

I guess we'll see in ~10 minutes, assuming that's what Garland is going to speak on.

[stessier]

Edit: To summarize the scam line - Trump's people are claiming he was cooperating with the subpoena and the DOJ search warrant was politically motivated. The counter to that argument is that they took boxes of materials. The NY Times *of course* throws some water on that by quoting unnamed sources saying some of the boxes were "not filled to the brim". Whatever the fuck that means.

Maybe something like this:

[Daehawk]

He pussied up...takes the 5th.

[Smoove_B]

You really do operate on your own timeline, eh? That what we were talking about ~26 hours ago. Now we're all waiting for the DoJ press conference.

[Daehawk]

I just arrived in this timeline. Is it off by some amount? Ill have to speak to Rivi about it. Or Simon.

[Octavious]

Can't watch. So did we get him?

[malchior]

Can't watch. So did we get him?

Garland is pulling a Trump and is ... 33 minutes overdue now.

[Octavious]

If I'm 1 minute late to a conference call I'm getting team messages asking where I am. How hard is it to be on time?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[malchior]

He is essentially saying they'll be asking the judge to unseal part of the search warrant and affidavit because it is in the public interest and then went on to say this isn't normally how they operate. *This is the exception*. The Trump pressure campaign worked. Let's hope this isn't a huge mistake.

He also made a statement that seemed related to the Cincinnati incident about protecting agents and was out of the room in a flash.

[Octavious]

So a big fat nothing as always. Cool

[malchior]

So a big fat nothing as always. Cool

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

It's not nothing but it is what you'd expect out of an institutionalist like him. This sounds a lot like he is protecting the DOJ/FBI here under the pressure.

Edit: Also it seems like the delay might have been related to waiting for the official filing to get to court.

[Octavious]

We'll see. Stupid phone added the taptotalk tag back in. So annoying. Now I have to find the setting.