Octopus Overlords

Curious what the thoughts are on this. I give him 50:50 to finish out his term. I think there is more true hate for him than Obama and he is more likely to get taken out than Obama was. I do want him gone, but not through an assassination. I want no positive martyr spin for Trump.

What, no option for God-Emperor-for-life?

I think the only way he leaves early is if he dies from the stress of insanity and being old. I think it's easy to underestimate the support he still garners when you live in OO land. I don't see the wheels of justice spinning fast enough to oust him unless shit gets real and quite frankly as much damage as he is doing to the US on the world stage and how no matter how much the 115th Congress is setting the US back and will damage our well being as a collective for decades to come and no matter that this is the first time in my life I have felt ashamed to be a part of the US, shit isn't real.

I think assassination might rip the fabric of this country apart and it does cross my mind quite a bit that someone unstable is going to try. The Baseball practice thing a couple of weeks ago, raised the alert level on that.

Is this poll really asking whether he's going to be assassinated? If not, "Resigns on his own" overlaps with the first two options.

I give it only about 33% that legal troubles and looming impeachment/removal following the 2018 election will lead him to resign, but I'm voting "Resign" anyway.

I'm sticking with the prediction I made at the beginning of the year: He will resign or be impeached in the first half of next year.

He's not a real Republican. They have no love for him and owe him no loyalty. They will throw him under the bus when he ceases to be useful. The party's agenda would sail through under Pence (assuming that Trump doesn't take him down, too) or Ryan (if Pence falls).

The only thing making Trump untouchable now is fear of him and his supporters. There are already ample grounds for impeachment.

I don't know what will trigger the turning point, but it will happen swiftly when it comes.

Kraken wrote:The only thing making Trump untouchable now is fear of him and his supporters. There are already ample grounds for impeachment.

And by and large they are not turning on him. They are teflon when comes to day to day news. The best they will concede is "I just wish he wouldn't twitter so much."

... I predicted he would win the nod from the beginning but I thought there was no way he would become president. I seriously underestimated that active nature and volume of his following, even if I thought it was big enough to overtake the party. I just didn't think it was big enough to overtake the nation.

IF He continues to sabotage Republicans and Mconnell. IF Pence is not implicated. And IF it begins translating to gerrymandered losses. He's gone as fast as congress can shove h under the bus.
As long as his shenanigans are more distraction that impediment to the Republican core agenda, he's not going anywhere.

Everything else is noise. The guys at the top can profit whichever direction both foreign and domestic policy go.
What would be interesting to see is if the president becomes an anchor to policy, and Pence becomes inextricably from the Russia investigation. Do the Republicans have someone behind Pence who could be seen as legitimate? I think they'd love President Pence and the only reason they haven't turned on Trump his downfall would be more detrimental than his current shenanigans. But I guarantee they are crunching that calculus daily. If it goes down they have to be screaming patriotism at the top of the impeachment pile.
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I selected finishes term although I think there is a 50/50 chance that he gets another term.

Holman wrote:Is this poll really asking whether he's going to be assassinated? If not, "Resigns on his own" overlaps with the first two options.

Assassination, impeachment, declaration of unfit to serve... Resign on his own is just he quits, but not forced to like Nixon.

Rip wrote:I selected finishes term although I think there is a 50/50 chance that he gets another term.

That I do not see. If he runs again I see him motivating a lot more anti- sentiment than he did when all the sentiment was anti-Hillary. I also see his senility or insanity getting a lot worse in the next three years and during his run there will be a collection of tweets in his resume that that will fuel the fire in addition to his, you know, policy setting.

It would literally take another Hillary run to piss the populace off enough to let Trump win again and the only reason Hillary might lose this time would be that people being that pissed at the democratic party for repeating her failure in spite of the message last time.

Montag wrote:

Holman wrote:Is this poll really asking whether he's going to be assassinated? If not, "Resigns on his own" overlaps with the first two options.

Assassination, impeachment, declaration of unfit to serve... Resign on his own is just he quits, but not forced to like Nixon.

In that case, I would change my answer from "resigns" to "will not finish term" if I could.

Holman wrote:

Montag wrote:

Holman wrote:Is this poll really asking whether he's going to be assassinated? If not, "Resigns on his own" overlaps with the first two options.

Assassination, impeachment, declaration of unfit to serve... Resign on his own is just he quits, but not forced to like Nixon.

In that case, I would change my answer from "resigns" to "will not finish term" if I could.

And now you can...

LordMortis wrote:

Rip wrote:I selected finishes term although I think there is a 50/50 chance that he gets another term.

That I do not see. If he runs again I see him motivating a lot more anti- sentiment than he did when all the sentiment was anti-Hillary. I also see his senility or insanity getting a lot worse in the next three years and during his run there will be a collection of tweets in his resume that that will fuel the fire in addition to his, you know, policy setting.

It would literally take another Hillary run to piss the populace off enough to let Trump win again and the only reason Hillary might lose this time would be that people being that pissed at the democratic party for repeating her failure in spite of the message last time.

I find your lack of faith in the power of voter suppression and election hijinx disturbing...

Max Peck wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Rip wrote:I selected finishes term although I think there is a 50/50 chance that he gets another term.

That I do not see. If he runs again I see him motivating a lot more anti- sentiment than he did when all the sentiment was anti-Hillary. I also see his senility or insanity getting a lot worse in the next three years and during his run there will be a collection of tweets in his resume that that will fuel the fire in addition to his, you know, policy setting.

It would literally take another Hillary run to piss the populace off enough to let Trump win again and the only reason Hillary might lose this time would be that people being that pissed at the democratic party for repeating her failure in spite of the message last time.

I find your lack of faith in the power of voter suppression and election hijinx disturbing...

Yeah, if he somehow makes it to 2020 -- and imagining three and a half more years of this shitshow fills me with dread -- I expect that the system will be rigged to preclude any Democrat from ever winning again without extraordinary Republican defections. They'd need a 60/40 landslide to overcome those barriers.

Plus I never underestimate the Democrats' ability to shoot themselves in the foot.

LordMortis wrote:

Rip wrote:I selected finishes term although I think there is a 50/50 chance that he gets another term.

That I do not see. If he runs again I see him motivating a lot more anti- sentiment than he did when all the sentiment was anti-Hillary. I also see his senility or insanity getting a lot worse in the next three years and during his run there will be a collection of tweets in his resume that that will fuel the fire in addition to his, you know, policy setting.

It would literally take another Hillary run to piss the populace off enough to let Trump win again and the only reason Hillary might lose this time would be that people being that pissed at the democratic party for repeating her failure in spite of the message last time.

Which is my 50/50. I figure that is the chance the the Dems run her again or manage to find someone worse.

Will Trump Make It - Poll

With whom?

The Meal wrote:

Will Trump Make It - Poll

With whom?

Russian professional bed-wetters, according to my bookie.

No, he won't make it great again

Firmly believe Mueller is going to nail him with multiple impeachable offenses, and he will resign claiming a "witch hunt" forced him out and trying to make people believe that he's some kind of martyr.

Right now I'm not worried about Trump not getting strung up. I'm worried about him getting us into a major war before that happens.

Max Peck wrote:What, no option for God-Emperor-for-life?

Could someone put his face on a giant sand worm?

hepcat wrote:

Max Peck wrote:What, no option for God-Emperor-for-life?

Could someone put his face on a giant sand worm?

Done.

Melania just raised her rates.

Rip wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Rip wrote:I selected finishes term although I think there is a 50/50 chance that he gets another term.

That I do not see. If he runs again I see him motivating a lot more anti- sentiment than he did when all the sentiment was anti-Hillary. I also see his senility or insanity getting a lot worse in the next three years and during his run there will be a collection of tweets in his resume that that will fuel the fire in addition to his, you know, policy setting.

It would literally take another Hillary run to piss the populace off enough to let Trump win again and the only reason Hillary might lose this time would be that people being that pissed at the democratic party for repeating her failure in spite of the message last time.

Which is my 50/50. I figure that is the chance the the Dems run her again or manage to find someone worse.

There is zero chance she runs again. Her political career will never advance any further than it has already. My fear is that we're seeing the end of politics based on even the slightest semblance of experience and intelligence, and the rise of celebrity.

hepcat wrote:

Max Peck wrote:What, no option for God-Emperor-for-life?

Could someone put his face on a giant sand worm?

Not quite...

YellowKing wrote:Firmly believe Mueller is going to nail him with multiple impeachable offenses, and he will resign claiming a "witch hunt" forced him out and trying to make people believe that he's some kind of martyr.

Right now I'm not worried about Trump not getting strung up. I'm worried about him getting us into a major war before that happens.

Wish I shared your optimism. But I don't, and my confidence in our electorate (and the media that keeps it nourished on garbage) is at an all time low. So I'm sadly in the "two terms" camp.

I really have no idea. I think it's highly unlikely that Trump could win a second term. But it's possible, through a mix of voter suppression shenanigans and left-wing infighting (remember that Paul LePage, aka Trump 1.0, won twice in Maine without ever getting a majority of the vote due to left wing candidates dividing the vote).

As for whether he makes it through his term - probably. I am inclined to doubt that any proof of Trump collusion in Russian election interference (evidence of which is growing, by the way) could get the Congressional GOP to turn on Trump in significant numbers. The wild card there is indictments - just based on what's publicly available the odds that senior people in TrumpWorld (Flynn, Manafort, Jared Kushner, one o' them Trump boys, etc.) get indicted seem north of 80%. But whether Trump himself can / will be indicted is a huge wild card, as is whether Trump will be able to head off indictments via firing of Mueller (and potentially others), or via pardons, or what the political impact of those indictments would be are all huge unknowns. And whether there's a point at which Trump says "fuck it" and resigns.

Right now I'd say that there's a 10% chance Trump gets reelected, 20% chance he doesn't finish his term, and 70% chance he serves out one term.

On a related note, I'm reading Law of the Land, by Yale Law professor Akhil Reed Amar. One of the chapters in the book is about how the current presidential succession law is a constitutional crisis waiting to happen.

Basically as is if Trump resigns / is forced from office, Mike Pence would become president and would then nominate a new VP, who would need to be confirmed by the House and the Senate. But suppose a 2018 democratic wave gives the democratic party control of the House (as is currently plausible). At that point pending confirmation of a new VP, the next person in line to be president after Pence would be... democratic speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. In that situation, it's not really in the interest of the democrats to confirm *any* Pence VP nominee, as that would place a republican ahead of a democrat in order of succession. Now, maybe shame would compel them to, but...that's not been a major factor in U.S. politics recently. At the very least they would put any nominee through the ringer, and might well hold out for a pretty left-wing Republican at least.

I guess that is one thing that might motivate the GOP to go along with ousting Trump in 2018; they could at least be assured of controlling the VP nomination.

El Guapo wrote:On a related note, I'm reading Law of the Land, by Yale Law professor Akhil Reed Amar. One of the chapters in the book is about how the current presidential succession law is a constitutional crisis waiting to happen.

Basically as is if Trump resigns / is forced from office, Mike Pence would become president and would then nominate a new VP, who would need to be confirmed by the House and the Senate. But suppose a 2018 democratic wave gives the democratic party control of the House (as is currently plausible). At that point pending confirmation of a new VP, the next person in line to be president after Pence would be... democratic speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. In that situation, it's not really in the interest of the democrats to confirm *any* Pence VP nominee, as that would place a republican ahead of a democrat in order of succession. Now, maybe shame would compel them to, but...that's not been a major factor in U.S. politics recently. At the very least they would put any nominee through the ringer, and might well hold out for a pretty left-wing Republican at least.

I guess that is one thing that might motivate the GOP to go along with ousting Trump in 2018; they could at least be assured of controlling the VP nomination.

That was a bed made by refusing to allow Obama the choice of Supreme Court choice. What's that saying about not shitting where you eat?

El Guapo wrote: Right now I'd say that there's a 10% chance Trump gets reelected

I'm not sure there's a 10% chance he'll even elect to run again. "Who knew it would be this hard?" I can easily see him declare that America is, indeed, great again (and well-lit by burning cities coast to coast) and his work is done. He can get back to his pussy-grabbing habits and do the Reagan fade into the long goodnight.

A bigger question is whether the party will simply fall in behind Pence to stay the course or have another bingo-card full of challengers to duke it among themselves. If the party loses control in either or both houses of congress or we're embroiled in another pointless war, Pence won't enjoy widespread support as the presumptive heir.

I think we've got to consider whether he'll be healthy enough, or even alive to run again in 2020. I think the stress is going to take a toll either physically or mentally.

Alefroth wrote:I think we've got to consider whether he'll be healthy enough, or even alive to run again in 2020. I think the stress is going to take a toll either physically or mentally.

Yeah, in 4 years he'll be a jelly-bellied pile of goo with a brain to match.

Make that 4 months.

Err...4 weeks.

4 days?

4 minutes ago.

Aw, hell, he could become the Horta from Star Trek and still the stupid goobers that support him today will be right by his side, no matter how badly they are getting burned.

Jeff V wrote:Aw, hell, he could become the Horta from Star Trek and still the stupid goobers that support him today will be right by his side, no matter how badly they are getting burned.

Don't you mean one of the Pakleds? He's kinda already there.

https://www.google.com/search?q=pakled+ ... 45&bih=705

https://sherman.house.gov/media-center/ ... ruction-of

Washington, D.C. – Today, Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA), joined by Congressman Al Green (D-TX), introduced an Article of Impeachment (H. Res. 438) against President Donald J. Trump for High Crimes and Misdemeanors. The Article is based on Article 1, dealing with “Obstruction of Justice,” which was passed by the Judiciary Committee on a bipartisan vote on July 27, 1974, regarding Richard M. Nixon. Sherman circulated a draft Article on June 12, 2017, and has been conferring with colleagues and legal experts from around the country since then.

Though, maybe this should have gone in the investigation thread...

I author Articles of Impeachment not to change our national policy. I served with Mike Pence in Congress for twelve years and I disagree with him on just about everything. I never dreamed I would author a measure that would put him in the White House. I am introducing Articles of Impeachment to begin a long process to protect our country from abuse of power, obstruction of justice, and impulsive, ignorant incompetence

LordMortis wrote:

Jeff V wrote:Aw, hell, he could become the Horta from Star Trek and still the stupid goobers that support him today will be right by his side, no matter how badly they are getting burned.

Don't you mean one of the Pakleds? He's kinda already there.

https://www.google.com/search?q=pakled+ ... 45&bih=705

He does resemble so many fictional beasts. But I chose the Horta because of their innate ability to burn those around them with their strong acid.