Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:02 pm**

Octavious wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:33 pm Fox doesn’t even have this on the front page. Go figure.

I just went there and it is on their front page below all the El Paso/Dayton stories.

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:09 pm**

It's weird how he can be so right and so wrong at the same time. Currency manipulation, unfair trade, hurting jobs. Yep. Yep. Yep. US taking in 10s of billions from China in tariffs? What? Show me on paper. somewhere China taking 100s of billions through unfair trade? What does that mean?

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:38 pm**

Sure - people have been complaining about China's unfair trade practices for years. The problem is what we are seeing - that the Chinese have more tools and importantly more vision and patience than this idiot. They take a very long view and Trump is all bluster and fucking stupid. The bad thing is that this is seen by many as an indicator that they have concluded that they aren't going to get anywhere with Trump and instead decided to do what is best for them.

The market meanwhile is trading down about 850 and pricing in a pretty high chance ( > 60%) of a 50-bps Fed rate cut. That is insane considering the underlying market mechanics otherwise. This isn't looking horrible but it certainly is a pretty bad outlook at the moment.

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:51 pm**

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:38 pm The bad thing is that this is seen by many as an indicator that they have concluded that they aren't going to get anywhere with Trump and instead decided to do what is best for them.

Wouldn't you? And wouldn't you also use his predictability in unilaterally wielding GrondTariff as a tool in zero sum approach to trade for doing what's best for you? Encourage other nations to seek favorable trade which then encourages Trump to Grond other countries as well?

We're headed back to fuedalism. To a time before merchants struck it rich by lifting everyone up. To a time before supply chains struck it rich by lifting everyone up. The exact opposite of the Reagan's bastardization of a rising tide raising all boats logic.

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:02 pm**

A sinking tide lowers all boats, except for global warming tides.

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:11 pm**

Wow - this sell off is accelerating. We might look at a 4% sell off (around 1000 points off the Dow). Trump has made a pretty big mistake. The Chinese are looking like they are going to let this play out. If the news is accurate, the Chinese leadership happens to be meeting for a planned retreat so they likely will chart a course though I'd hazard a guess that most of the strategy is in play already.

What is the orange oaf doing? He has been reduced to bitching via Twitter. Very effective!

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:13 pm**

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:11 pmWhat is the orange oaf doing? He has been reduced to bitching via Twitter. Very effective!

Well, he did visit another NJ wedding this weekend so he's probably all tuckered out.

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:14 pm**

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:11 pm What is the orange oaf doing?

Making his "friends" even richer off derivatives?

Posted: **Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:20 pm**

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:02 pm A sinking tide lowers all boats, except for global warming tides.

Just closed SNAP puts for a 70% gain, started the position last week. Still getting killed everywhere else but that was an unexpected gift.

Like a free smoke and a blindfold.

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:29 am**

Good thing Trump Country isn't full of farmers!

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:42 am**

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:29 am Good thing Trump Country isn't full of farmers!

This will be interesting. Once it’s clear that this is going to drag on, will Trump still get the support of farmers? Will enough of them still be around to matter? I hate to see people suffer, but there is a strong sense of “I told you do” here.

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:25 am**

Grifman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:42 am
Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:29 am Good thing Trump Country isn't full of farmers!
This will be interesting. Once it’s clear that this is going to drag on, will Trump still get the support of farmers? Will enough of them still be around to matter? I hate to see people suffer, but there is a strong sense of “I told you do” here.

There will be plenty of welfare to see them through. I read yesterday that the government has authorized $28B in support payments so far, vs. $22B collected from tariffs.

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:35 am**

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:25 am
Grifman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:42 am
Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:29 am Good thing Trump Country isn't full of farmers!
This will be interesting. Once it’s clear that this is going to drag on, will Trump still get the support of farmers? Will enough of them still be around to matter? I hate to see people suffer, but there is a strong sense of “I told you do” here.
There will be plenty of welfare to see them through. I read yesterday that the government has authorized $28B in support payments so far, vs. $22B collected from tariffs.

Yeah, but I've also read that the payments are structured in such a way (based mainly on acreage) that they're going mainly to mega-farms / corporate farming, and so not much is going to individual / small farmers. Which of course it's structured that way - can't miss an opportunity to direct money to the 1% - but I suspect one result of that is going to be that most farmers are going to be hurt far more than they get in support. Which leaves the question of how exactly this is going to play out in 2020 open.

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:38 am**

"Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Years Ago?"

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:38 am**

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:25 am There will be plenty of welfare to see them through. I read yesterday that the government has authorized $28B in support payments so far, vs. $22B collected from tariffs.

Sounds "good" in theory, but I've also read a number of reports (and anecdotally backed up by what I hear some of the local farmers talking about) that in true Trumpian fashion the bulk of the money is going to corporate factory farms who can navigate the bureaucracy. Most of the locals I overhear talk about how hard it is to get the bailouts, and how long they're having to wait to get it.

Stands to reason that if the trade war is being epically mismanaged, the bailout would be too.

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:02 pm**

I've heard this too from a friend of mine in upstate NY. The effects are disproportionate of course. If you were growing export soybeans you are screwed. If you are say an organic farmer selling to your local community then you'll probably be ok. Nothing like picking winners and losers. I thought the "conservatives" hated that.

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:30 pm**

Anyone know how we can declare ourselves conscientious objectors to this war?

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:48 pm**

Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:30 pm Anyone know how we can declare ourselves conscientious objectors to this war?

Stop buying stuff we don't need? (Yes, I know that would tank the economy.)

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:24 pm**

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:48 pm
Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:30 pm Anyone know how we can declare ourselves conscientious objectors to this war?
Stop buying stuff we don't need? (Yes, I know that would tank the economy.)

Video games and good cheese are a weakness. After that, I'm a fairly spartan economy tanker. Stuff to me is largely a burden. More stuff is more stuff to maintain to take care of. Stuff is essentially work.

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:08 pm**

If only I could ever convince my wife we don't need more crap...

Posted: **Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:54 pm**

Jeff V wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:08 pm If only I could ever convince my wife we don't need more crap...

+1. I am forever trying to get rid of stuff, and she is constantly adding more. I think it goes back to our childhoods; she grew up deprived (by middle-class standards) and I grew up indulged, so she values possessions more than I do.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:03 am**

Jeff V wrote:If only I could ever convince my wife we don't need more crap...

She could just send the crap to her family.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:34 am**

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:54 pm
Jeff V wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:08 pm If only I could ever convince my wife we don't need more crap...
+1. I am forever trying to get rid of stuff, and she is constantly adding more. I think it goes back to our childhoods; she grew up deprived (by middle-class standards) and I grew up indulged, so she values possessions more than I do.

I grew up in a very frugal by middle class househould by the standards of 70s. It stuck in my craw then but 4 of the 5 kids in our self farming 750 sq foot falling to pieces home grew up "knowing the value of a dollar" and we are all frugal. The 5th child was 10 years apart from the rest of us and got "more". She appreciates having and doing things than the rest of us. Also my ex grew up indulged, claiming she did not... She most definitely liked things and nice things at that and had an expectation to a level of entitlement for those things, like they were pre-earned. So that's a data point of six...

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:44 am**

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:54 pm

+1. I am forever trying to get rid of stuff, and she is constantly adding more. I think it goes back to our childhoods; she grew up deprived (by middle-class standards) and I grew up indulged, so she values possessions more than I do.

This matches my experience. I grew up with very little, often improvising/making my own stuff. Unfortunately, it has led to me valuing possessions more than I should. It has also led me to being very protective of my stuff. I keep it safe, don't abuse it, and have things I have used regularly for decades that are in pristine condition. For example, there isn't a board game on my shelf that isn't in just as good of condition as the day I unsealed it.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:54 am**

A bad part of me wants to see the Dow keep on dropping as it makes Trumps chances of getting elected go down. Would be hard to brag about how great his is when everything is cratering around him.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:04 am**

Octavious wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:54 am A bad part of me wants to see the Dow keep on dropping as it makes Trumps chances of getting elected go down. Would be hard to brag about how great his is when everything is cratering around him.

He will just blame it on the Dems in the House not doing what he says needs to be done and his base will nod sagely.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:10 am**

He can't win with just his base. They will stick with him no matter what. We just need some of the less crazy Republicans to jump ship. I really wish we didn't have so many far left people running for president. We just need to be somewhere towards the middle and they would wreck this asshat.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:57 am**

CNN

The Dow and the broader US stock market are tumbling once again Wednesday as Wall Street investors fear the US-China trade war will inflict broad damage on the global economy.

After a one-day respite, panic has reignited over trade. Investors are pulling money out of stocks and buying up US bonds and gold as safe havens.

The 10-year US government bond yield tumbled near a three-year low of 1.6181%. Bonds and yields move in opposite directions.
...
Global central banks' rate cuts are helping fuel bond buying too. Overnight, both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India delivered steeper-than-expected rate cuts.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:22 am**

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:03 am
Jeff V wrote:If only I could ever convince my wife we don't need more crap...
She could just send the crap to her family.

Oh, several times a year we send large boxes of crap overseas; a lot of it hardly used because after buying it, wife decides she doesn't like it anymore. And then there's the post-Halloween box containing a metric ton of discounted candy that maybe costs $40 that she spends $80 shipping to them.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:44 am**

What's hilarious is if Trump loses, he will have done enough damage to your economy that the next Dem president will be saddled with a recession and be blamed by Republicans and you'll all elect another Republican.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:55 am**

tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:44 am What's hilarious is if Trump loses, he will have done enough damage to your economy that the next Dem president will be saddled with a recession and be blamed by Republicans and you'll all elect another Republican.

You mean like they did to Obama?

The shit-show Obama inherited was predicted by economists to take 8 years to turn around. He did it much faster, but still the Republicans were howling before the first midterms. And of course, Trump started taking credit for the booming economy the day he set foot in the White House.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:12 pm**

tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:44 am What's hilarious is if Trump loses, he will have done enough damage to your economy that the next Dem president will be saddled with a recession and be blamed by Republicans and you'll all elect another Republican.

Yeah, that's real funny.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:03 pm**

Hopefully the Republican party will have recovered some of its humanity and integrity by that point though. As for electing another Trump, I think that kind of stupid only rises to the top once in a great blue moon. I'm not saying that dumb, unethical people don't succeed in politics. But comically dumb and unethical? Most politicians who run for POTUS aren't that bad. We just had the perfect storm of stupidity in 2016.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm**

Jeff V wrote:
tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:44 am What's hilarious is if Trump loses, he will have done enough damage to your economy that the next Dem president will be saddled with a recession and be blamed by Republicans and you'll all elect another Republican.
You mean like they did to Obama?

The shit-show Obama inherited was predicted by economists to take 8 years to turn around. He did it much faster, but still the Republicans were howling before the first midterms. And of course, Trump started taking credit for the booming economy the day he set foot in the White House.

Precisely.

As for another Trump.

If he gets defeated, what's the odds of him going for it again after 4 years? Legal?

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:23 pm**

tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm As for another Trump.

If he gets defeated, what's the odds of him going for it again after 4 years? Legal?

I don't know the odds of him trying again, but it would be perfectly legal. The only limit is two terms - they don't have to be consecutive.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:25 pm**

tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:44 am What's hilarious is if Trump loses, he will have done enough damage to your economy that the next Dem president will be saddled with a recession and be blamed by Republicans and you'll all elect another Republican.

Don't worry, we'll show him, and good! We'll re-elect him so he'll have to deal with it!

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:50 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:25 pm

Don't worry, we'll show him, and good! We'll re-elect him so he'll have to stdeal with from it!

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:56 pm**

ImLawBoy wrote:
tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm As for another Trump.

If he gets defeated, what's the odds of him going for it again after 4 years? Legal?
I don't know the odds of him trying again, but it would be perfectly legal. The only limit is two terms - they don't have to be consecutive.

That's what I thought but wasn't sure.

Posted: **Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:19 pm**

tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:56 pm
ImLawBoy wrote:
tjg_marantz wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm As for another Trump.

If he gets defeated, what's the odds of him going for it again after 4 years? Legal?
I don't know the odds of him trying again, but it would be perfectly legal. The only limit is two terms - they don't have to be consecutive.
That's what I thought but wasn't sure.

Well, except felons can't run for President. Not from prison at least.

Posted: **Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:20 pm**

CNN

The Dow dropped 391 points, or 1.5%, on Monday afternoon. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 1.2% apiece. Treasury bond yields once again fell sharply as investors piled into safe assets.

The turmoil comes as investors brace for the US-China trade war to deal more damage to the global economy. The risk is that the tit-for-tat tariff battle between the world's two largest economies could turn the economic slowdown into a recession.
...
Goldman Sachs raised its estimate of how much the trade war will hurt the economy. The firm now expects fourth-quarter US growth to slow to 1.8%, compared with 2% previously.
...
Investor sentiment was further dented on Monday by rising concerns about the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Hundreds of flights to and from Hong Kong were canceled on Monday as protests forced the shutdown of the city's airport.
...
The rush into ultra-safe government bonds have caused Treasury yields to collapse. The 10-year Treasury rate tumbled below 1.7% on Monday, a sharp slide from 3.2% last fall. The 20-year Treasury yield is nearing all-time lows.

The plunge in bond yields will further pressure lending profits at banks, which make money on the difference between short and long-term rates. Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) fell about 3% apiece.

US stocks declined last week for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 is now sitting about 5% below the all-time highs set in late July prior to the outbreak in trade tensions.

Octopus Overlords

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