Re: Trump Trade War
Posted: Thu May 30, 2019 7:45 pm
JFC.
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/
Obviously the answer is to raise tariffs until the Chinese abandon their Climate Change hoax!Jeff V wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2019 6:55 pm Here in the Midwest,if losing our biggest buyer of corn and soybean wasn't bad enough, the weather has been so shitty that, according to a news report this morning, only 10% of the summer crop has been planted thus far, compared with 80% this time a year ago. I'm in rural suburbia (my subdivision is surrounded by cornfields on 3 sides), I see the flooded fields daily. The weather forecast is for storms 14 of the next 15 days, so things aren't going to get better anytime soon.
As long as the economy stays good, Trump will cruise to reelection (with a little help from the Russians and Republican cheating). Most voters vote their pocketbook, and most pocketbooks are doing alright. Fortunately (?) Trump is going to tear it down because he doesn't understand how tariffs work. Morgan Stanley has declared a "recession watch," FWIW. I hate being in the position of rooting for recession, but I do believe that's our only hope for 2020.LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 7:56 pm This is what you do to your 3rd largest trading partner behind Canada and China, wherein NAFTA has been a positive force for every one for two decades, growing our trade both ways by 10x since 1995.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html
But by all means tell us again how Putin is so great you didn't even have to ask for his election interference. Facts and reality mean nothing to 30% of the population and it's really looking like to much of the other 60% can't be bothered to care. Is there a point where we get what we deserve?
What is good economy though? More subsidies in farming? And woah boy if June 12th rolls around and the price of everything literally goes up overnight between Mexican and Chinese tariffs. Oh and cutting REE... Is that a 10% market drop in a month? Durable good manufacturing? Durable good purchasing?Kraken wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 8:37 pmAs long as the economy stays good, Trump will cruise to reelection (with a little help from the Russians and Republican cheating). Most voters vote their pocketbook, and most pocketbooks are doing alright. Fortunately (?) Trump is going to tear it down because he doesn't understand how tariffs work. Morgan Stanley has declared a "recession watch," FWIW. I hate being in the position of rooting for recession, but I do believe that's our only hope for 2020.LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 7:56 pm This is what you do to your 3rd largest trading partner behind Canada and China, wherein NAFTA has been a positive force for every one for two decades, growing our trade both ways by 10x since 1995.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html
But by all means tell us again how Putin is so great you didn't even have to ask for his election interference. Facts and reality mean nothing to 30% of the population and it's really looking like to much of the other 60% can't be bothered to care. Is there a point where we get what we deserve?
FWIW, my portfolio despite 401(k) adds and some Roth, is down since September of 2018 and my house is selling for significantly less than I expected.
My investments that have not been contributed to are about where they were a year ago, which is the trailing end of the corporate tax relief party hangover. Since last July we had a 10% rebound that was just finished fully evaporating this week. Only I fear this dip is just beginning. Looking at the pre market (is there really such a thing any more?) this morning, the last tweet was not received well... And more money exchanges hands... in to the people who has insight in to Xi and Trump before they go all King George.noxiousdog wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2019 7:43 am FWIW, my portfolio despite 401(k) adds and some Roth, is down since September of 2018 and my house is selling for significantly less than I expected.
U.S. and Mexican officials headed into a second day of talks Thursday, working to avert import tariffs that President Donald Trump in threatening to impose as he tries to strong-arm Mexico into stemming the flood of Central American migrants at America’s southern border.
Both sides claimed headway in lengthy talks Wednesday, but Trump said a “lot of progress” must still be made to halt the 5% tax on all Mexican goods that he has threatened to impose Monday as part of an escalating tariff regime opposed by many in his own Republican Party.
Underscoring the scope of the border problem, the Department of Homeland Security announced Wednesday that U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions of migrants illegally crossing the border hit the highest level in more than a decade in May: 132,887 apprehensions, including a record 84,542 adults and children traveling together and 11,507 children traveling alone.
Trump, who is currently traveling in Europe, tweeted from Ireland that the Washington talks would continue “with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule.”
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Administration officials have also said Mexico can prevent the tariffs by securing its southern border with Guatemala and cracking down on criminal smuggling organizations. But the U.S. has not proposed any concrete metrics to assess whether Mexico is complying, and it is unclear whether even those steps would be enough to satisfy Trump on illegal immigration, a signature issue of his presidency and one that he sees as crucial to his 2020 re-election campaign.
It would be cheaper if Mexico just gave them all MAGA hats and sent them north. We could then welcome them with open arms. It would also eliminate the whole "citizenship question" controversy.
I figured but I hadn't hoped that my figuring would become a reality. A lot of red states lured a lot of manufacturing and assembly jobs based on trade with Mexico over the last 20 to 25 years and all of that was jeopardy, to say nothing of the price of produce and electronics. They can pretend to attack NAFTA all they want but in the end over a half a trillion a year in trade that has grown from NAFTA, which has, in fact, reduced crime and poverty at the border and it's the red southern states the benefit most from this, which includes the shift of auto away from Detroit.The cease-fire will forestall that economic reckoning and prevent an intraparty war that Mr. Trump had created by threatening tariffs to leverage the immigration changes he demanded. That tactic had drawn stiff protests from Republicans, including many senators, who have long opposed tariffs and worried the measure would hurt American companies and consumers.
The deal to avert tariffs that President Trump announced with great fanfare on Friday night consists largely of actions that Mexico had already promised to take in prior discussions with the United States over the past several months, according to officials from both countries who are familiar with the negotiations.
Friday’s joint declaration says Mexico agreed to the “deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border.” But the Mexican government had already pledged to do that in March during secret talks in Miami between Kirstjen Nielsen, then the secretary of homeland security, and Olga Sanchez, the Mexican secretary of the interior, the officials said.
The centerpiece of Mr. Trump’s deal was an expansion of a program to allow asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico while their legal cases proceed. But that arrangement was first reached in December in a pair of painstakingly negotiated diplomatic notes that the two countries exchanged. Ms. Nielsen announced the Migrant Protection Protocols during a hearing of the House Judiciary Committee five days before Christmas.
And over the past week, negotiators failed to persuade Mexico to accept a “safe third country” treaty that would have given the United States the legal ability to reject asylum seekers if they had not sought refuge in Mexico first.
It was unclear whether Mr. Trump believed that the agreement truly represented new and broader concessions, or whether the president understood the limits of the deal but accepted it as a face-saving way to escape from the political and economic consequences of imposing tariffs on Mexico.
Aye. To me the optics are a clear loss, but I don't matter. I'm struggling to find how the optics could possibly be a win under any microscope but no doubt five minutes with those who would inform me the economy has never been better and it is all due to Trump won't have seen it that way I'm sure.LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:17 amHe only has to fool some of the people all of the time.
President Trump on Monday threatened to impose large tariffs on $300 billion in imports if Chinese leader Xi Jinping did not meet with him in Japan later this month, showing how he plans to immediately pivot from his trade war with Mexico back to Beijing.
Trump, in a wide-ranging and apparently impromptu interview with CNBC, said he was “scheduled to have a meeting” with Xi during the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, but Chinese officials have refused to publicly confirm the gathering.
“We do not want a trade war, but we are not afraid of fighting one,” said Geng Shuang, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “If the U.S. is ready to have equal consultations, our door is wide open. But if it insists on escalating trade frictions, we will respond to it with resolution and perseverance.”
If Xi doesn’t meet with him, Trump said that he will move forward with tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, which includes numerous consumer products.
He threatened to blow up the world if Mexico didn't dance to his tune. Mexico rushed a high-level delegation to Washington. Mexico caved and the apocalypse was averted. To the casually informed citizen, it's that simple.LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:54 am Curious kraken, what lens are you seeing the win through? That Trump tweeted there is a new agreement in place? I will fully admit his tweet threat was enough to mobilize the business world and the Senate but did his follow up claim of victory make more believers? Am I that out of touch that this works and I can't see it?
Anecdotal, but my lunch discussion today with an "I don't pay any attention to politics" friend pretty much confirmed Kraken's theory. All he saw were headlines about Mexico agreeing to Trump's terms.Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:44 pmHe threatened to blow up the world if Mexico didn't dance to his tune. Mexico rushed a high-level delegation to Washington. Mexico caved and the apocalypse was averted. To the casually informed citizen, it's that simple.LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:54 am Curious kraken, what lens are you seeing the win through? That Trump tweeted there is a new agreement in place? I will fully admit his tweet threat was enough to mobilize the business world and the Senate but did his follow up claim of victory make more believers? Am I that out of touch that this works and I can't see it?
By Monday morning, the president’s victory lap had screeched to a halt.
As news outlets began chipping away at the agreement’s veneer, pointing out that it wasn’t the game-changer that Trump made it out to be, the president started lashing out, painting himself as a victim and insisting that he’s not getting the credit he deserves.
In the span of three days, he fired off more than a dozen angry Twitter messages complaining about media coverage. He promised there was more to the deal than meets the eye, teasing a “very important” part of the agreement that will be “revealed in the not too distant future.” And he called into CNBC for a 27-minute, impromptu interview in which he bashed the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for criticizing his approach to trade negotiations while offering few new details about the deal.
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It’s a familiar pattern for Trump. As his presidency reaches the 2.5-year mark, he is more aggrieved than ever, telling advisers that he believes he’ll never get fair treatment from the media and establishment politicians that he believes hate him.
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The president took particular umbrage with comments made by Myron Brilliant, the U.S. Chamber’s head of international affairs, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday morning. Soon after Brilliant criticized Trump’s “weaponization of tariffs,” the president called into CNBC to respond, bashing the Chamber and saying he may resign his membership in the group as a result.
Who could have foreseen that domestic steel producers wouldn't increase production to meet demand?One of the largest U.S. producers of aerosol cans, Colorado-based Ball Metalpack, has laid off 91 of its 500 U.S. workers since President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel that abruptly hiked the firm’s raw materials costs.
At a chief competitor, DS Containers, the story is different. The subsidiary of Japan’s Daiwa Can Co has added more than 80 workers over 18 months at its two Illinois plants, bringing employment to 232.
Rivals of the Japanese-owned firm say the reason for its success is simple - it’s not paying the tariff, allowing the firm to snatch business from competitors who have been forced to raise prices to cover their higher materials costs. The U.S. Commerce Department granted DS Containers an exemption from the import tax because it uses a raw material, plastic-laminated steel, that isn’t produced by U.S. steelmakers.
Firms that use standard tin-plated steel, including Ball Metalpack and Mauser Packaging Solutions, have seen their exemption applications denied or delayed by Commerce after U.S. steelmakers objected to them, arguing the material is available domestically. Executives from the can makers counter that domestic steelmakers can’t produce nearly enough tinplate to meet their needs - forcing them to keep importing and paying tariffs.
President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on virtually all products from China is running into a wall of opposition from the business community, amid fears that what began as a temporary negotiating tool is becoming a permanent feature of trans-Pacific trade.
Starting on Monday, hundreds of companies are scheduled to testify before the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) over seven days of hearings on the president’s proposal to expand tariffs to an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports. After a year-long trade war, those are the only Chinese imports that remain duty-free.
USTR has received more than 1,600 written comments on the plan, with the overwhelming majority warning that additional tariffs would raise prices for consumers, cost American jobs and disrupt production at companies across the nation.
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The avalanche of complaints suggests that industry patience with the president’s tariff-heavy trade policy is evaporating. His sudden threat last month to impose tariffs on Mexican imports in a dispute over border security coupled with fading prospects for a comprehensive trade deal with China explain the increasingly vocal opposition, according to trade analysts and executives.
Late Tuesday US Steel announced it will idle two of the blast furnaces where it makes steel, one in its flagship mill in Gary, Indiana, near Chicago, the other in Ecorse, Michigan, near Detroit. The idled furnaces will cut production by about 200,000 tons of steel or more a month, the company said.
"We will resume blast furnace production at one or both idled blast furnaces when market conditions improve," said the company.
US Steel (X) also cut its earnings outlook and shut an additional blast furnace in Europe. Although some of the drop in profit is because of the slowdown in the European economy, it pointed to softening demand in the American market as well. US manufacturing has been slowing recently.
US Steel's action follows similar warnings Monday from Nucor (NUE), the nation's largest steelmaker, and Steel Dynamics (STLD). Both are now forecasting lower profits. Nucor pointed to weaker demand from the US auto industry. Steel Dynamics said steel prices have declined across its line of products.
“People are starting to say, ‘I don’t know how we’re going to survive this,’ ” said Martinmaas, who voted for Trump in 2016, but says he’s open to a Democrat like Montana Gov. Steve Bullock this time. “You know, we’re the ones taking the brunt of it in all these negotiations, so they need to be kind of helping us out right now.”
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But a survey of farmers released this month by Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture shows rising pessimism, with only 20 percent saying they believe the trade war with China will be resolved by July 1, down from 45 percent in March.
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Trump tweeted that he had reached a deal with Mexico in response to the country’s pledge to take “strong measures” to curb the influx of Central American migrants, averting the tariff threat.
Randy saw this as a win; Martinmaas isn’t so sure. He doesn’t like the idea of farmers being used as pawns.
“We want the border secured, but there might be other ways to do it rather than using the farmers as a stick to beat Mexico over the head,” he said. “Farm states elected him, and everyone around here is still giving him the benefit of the doubt. But if, in a year and a half, we’re still in the same boat, he’s not getting elected.”
Typical rural liberal elitists. Always seeking a government handout.