Israel–United States relations and associated politics

[GreenGoo]

I'm not here to do your heavy lifting for you.

God forbid. Easier to just be curt and done with it.

Well come on dude, you're an intelligent guy, Zarathud was pretty clear.

Here's the short version: Israel undergoes rocket bombardment for years, if not decades, now the IDF is given a chance to directly act, and all those years of resentment, anger and impotency means, as humans are wont to do, their emotions are having an impact on their decision making.

Justified? Debatable. I say no. Mitigating? Absolutely.

edit: El Guapo, handsome guy that he is, covered it before I could get to it. However, I think my summation is slightly more clear than his, even if it's not a model of clarity.

[Unagi]

I'm sure if we (all) could talk in real-time, the nuances of our tone and meaning would be clear enough to realize we are all mostly entirely in agreement.


For myself, just speaking to the Forum at Large here; the part that is just hair-pulling frustrating, is these were relief workers - doing everything they could to play by the IDF's rules, and they were killed. These were not a group of unarmed, half-naked Palestinians surrendering to IDF but still fired upon - which while horrible, is something within the grasp of some amount of mitigation by way of 'anger leads to bad choices'... But this was a pre-approved convoy of relief workers. (aside: Frankly, I don't understand how it wasn't escorted by some IDF element, but actually I do understand that fully - so yeah.) But - for this IDF unit to fire on this convoy (not just once, but repeatedly - over time) seems to, at the very least, represent an absolute high-water mark for this kind of 'our bad' in this war, which has seen some really horrible examples.

I understand the choices the soldiers made did not come out of the blue. And I also know we still don't know the full details of this event.

[GreenGoo]

I'm sure if we (all) could talk in real-time, the nuances of our tone and meaning would be clear enough to realize we are all mostly entirely in agreement.

For sure. I'm sorry that I was curt. Sometimes fatigue sets in and re-explaining something that (I thought) was clear enough already is asking too much. Obviously we all fail to understand, or fully understand something at times, this is not unique to you. Again, I apologize.

For myself, just speaking to the Forum at Large here; the part that is just hair-pulling frustrating, is these were relief workers - doing everything they could to play by the IDF's rules, and they were killed. These were not a group of unarmed, half-naked Palestinians surrendering to IDF but still fired upon - which while horrible, is something within the grasp of some amount of mitigation by way of 'anger leads to bad choices'... But this was a pre-approved convoy of relief workers. (aside: Frankly, I don't understand how it wasn't escorted by some IDF element, but actually I do understand that fully - so yeah.) But - for this IDF unit to fire on this convoy (not just once, but repeatedly - over time) seems to, at the very least, represent an absolute high-water mark for this kind of 'our bad' in this war, which has seen some really horrible examples.

I understand the choices the soldiers made did not come out of the blue. And I also know we still don't know the full details of this event.

I fully get that and quite frankly it's unacceptable. More political pressure needs to be brought to bear. That said, abandoning a close and decades long ally just isn't going to happen over night, or even over months. Unfortunately Israel is in the hands of a crap person who's out for blood. He needs to go and cooler heads brought in. I'm sure drumpf would be just as blood thirsty in the same position, which is yet another reason he can't be allowed back in the white house.

Whether it was blatant disregard or explicit targeting, it's beyond the pale. I have zero confidence it was unavoidable with even basic oversight.

[El Guapo]

Gantz calls for September elections.

This is one of the leading opposition leaders calling for September elections in Israel (which the current government would almost certainly lose, barring some dramatic change). Last night was also the fourth day of mass protests calling for a new election. Netanyahu is going to resist elections for as long as he can given the electoral prospects, and I don't really know to what extent others can force the issue. We'll see.

[Smoove_B]

I don't think I've posted in this thread, but I did want to voice agreement with Unagi's latest post. In seeing things unfold over the last ~24 hours, I think this article is a good summary.

I am firmly in the camp that there are two possibilities for what happened. The first is that a group of IDF soldiers intentionally targeted the marked and cleared convoy repeatedly over a distance of ~1.5 miles because they believed (at best) Hamas operatives were using it as cover or (at worst) that it was broadly providing "aid to the enemy". In this situation they acted interdependently on the front line and without direct support from higher ups. The second possibility is that this attack came at the direction of higher ups.

Neither one of these are good and the idea that American politics/money/supplies are aiding in what's been unfolding over there is shameful.

[Dogstar]

I can say I was stunned reading this. I should have known that this was a possibility and would be used, but...
‘The machine did it coldly’: Israel used AI to identify 37,000 Hamas targets

...Four of the sources said that, at one stage early in the war, Lavender listed as many as 37,000 Palestinian men who had been linked by the AI system to Hamas or PIJ.

Lavender was developed by the Israel Defense Forces’ elite intelligence division, Unit 8200, which is comparable to the US’s National Security Agency or GCHQ in the UK.

Several of the sources described how, for certain categories of targets, the IDF applied pre-authorised allowances for the estimated number of civilians who could be killed before a strike was authorised.

Two sources said that during the early weeks of the war they were permitted to kill 15 or 20 civilians during airstrikes on low-ranking militants. Attacks on such targets were typically carried out using unguided munitions known as “dumb bombs”, the sources said, destroying entire homes and killing all their occupants....

A lot more in-depth information in another article. Follow-up: A lengthy but worthwhile read. If it’s accurate… damn.

Edit: This might point to the discrepancy Zarathrud mentioned they felt existed between prior Israeli operations and now.

[El Guapo]

I don't think I've posted in this thread, but I did want to voice agreement with Unagi's latest post. In seeing things unfold over the last ~24 hours, I think this article is a good summary.

I am firmly in the camp that there are two possibilities for what happened. The first is that a group of IDF soldiers intentionally targeted the marked and cleared convoy repeatedly over a distance of ~1.5 miles because they believed (at best) Hamas operatives were using it as cover or (at worst) that it was broadly providing "aid to the enemy". In this situation they acted interdependently on the front line and without direct support from higher ups. The second possibility is that this attack came at the direction of higher ups.

Neither one of these are good and the idea that American politics/money/supplies are aiding in what's been unfolding over there is shameful.

I think this is fair and accurate.

[waitingtoconnect]

Incidents like this are designed to keep the NGOs and journalists out so they can act with impunity. The Russians have done the same in Ukraine.

An accident is destroying one car. All three on a convoy is sending a message.

bibi wants to stay in power and he knows the longer this goes on the more chance it will destroy Biden politically and that a Trump White House will allow him and his right wing buddies to annex Gaza. He is doing immeasurable harm to the Jewish and Israeli cause.

[Pyperkub]

I didn't have Hydra running Israel on my Bingo Card, but there it is...

The Israeli military’s bombing campaign in Gaza used a previously undisclosed AI-powered database that at one stage identified 37,000 potential targets based on their apparent links to Hamas, according to intelligence sources involved in the war.

[Victoria Raverna]

Reading more about this, it seems like it was not an accidental or unintentional killing, it was an operation to kill a certain target that was not successful because they didn't get the guy. It was only a mistake because they didn't kill their target.

While I'm also upset with Israel over this, your statement makes it sound like they're intentionally targeting aid workers. I don't think that's the case. I think they're just using sloppy intel and/or someone in command was careless. While the difference seems trivial, I do think it's important not to make statements like this. Just as you think it's important to continually note that there wasn't as much sexual violence or brutality against the victims of October 7th as reported in some circles, I think this is also important.

No. My statement made it sound like they don't care if they killed some aid workers if they got the target they want to kill.

[waitingtoconnect]

Reading more about this, it seems like it was not an accidental or unintentional killing, it was an operation to kill a certain target that was not successful because they didn't get the guy. It was only a mistake because they didn't kill their target.

While I'm also upset with Israel over this, your statement makes it sound like they're intentionally targeting aid workers. I don't think that's the case. I think they're just using sloppy intel and/or someone in command was careless. While the difference seems trivial, I do think it's important not to make statements like this. Just as you think it's important to continually note that there wasn't as much sexual violence or brutality against the victims of October 7th as reported in some circles, I think this is also important.

It’s a complex situation. But in general Israeli intelligence is top notch - whoever did this knew what they were doing. It probably wasn’t sanctioned though.

Israelis are as divided as we are thanks to ultra nationalists and their enabler Bibi who will do anything to stay in power. Largely because once he leaves office he will go to jail. Right now continuing the war is good best option to avoid elections he would surely lose. And his ultra nationalist coalition partners want Gaza as new settlement areas so pushing the Palestinians out is important to them.

Also they live in a part of the world that views them as a “crusader state” akin to the Christian kingdoms of the Middle Ages and where if they laid down their arms they would all die horribly. War has basically been perpetual since 1945. Every man - outside of religious scholars - and most women are conscripted and have fought real battles. And they know much of the world would happily push them into a gas chamber given half a chance. That creates an understandable selfishness that Israel must be defended at all costs against a hostile world.

That selfishness has been described by the Israeli left as sowing the seeds of Israel’s destruction by eroding the soul of the nation. And they are right. It led to people like Bibi.

Thus there are members of Israel’s military who are going to view aid workers as the enemy. And they will act accordingly. It doesn’t help Israel that such individuals are defacto protected in the eyes of the public.

But finally our governments let Israel get away with it. If blowing away western aid workers, journalists and even our warships like the USS liberty isn’t enough for us to hold them to account they will keep doing it.

[hepcat]

Reading more about this, it seems like it was not an accidental or unintentional killing, it was an operation to kill a certain target that was not successful because they didn't get the guy. It was only a mistake because they didn't kill their target.

While I'm also upset with Israel over this, your statement makes it sound like they're intentionally targeting aid workers. I don't think that's the case. I think they're just using sloppy intel and/or someone in command was careless. While the difference seems trivial, I do think it's important not to make statements like this. Just as you think it's important to continually note that there wasn't as much sexual violence or brutality against the victims of October 7th as reported in some circles, I think this is also important.

It’s a complex situation. But in general Israeli intelligence is top notch

The amount of evidence proving this to be patently false, especially around October 7th and all that came afterwards, is undeniable and well documented.

[Blackhawk]

One way to find the goal of something is to see the end result and work backwards. This isn't a theory so much as a musing (to declare it's what actually happened is jumping close to conspiracy theory territory.)

Israel blocked aid from getting in. They did it for a long, long time, despite the fallout it was causing. This suggests that they genuinely don't want aid getting in.

Just recently the UN took it a step further by ordering that Israel let aid in (enforceable or not.)

Next, an aid convoy gets blown up openly.

Result? Aid workers are pulling out. Israel can open up to aid without having to worry about aid getting in. It won't last forever, but it's something.

Yeah, there's a lot of supposition and assumption in there, but it's one thing that seems to match what happened.

And at this point I'm honestly starting to wonder if the rest of the world is going to end up having to step in. A few months ago I'd have said it was inconceivable, but Israel has pushed things so far that something's got to give somewhere, and soon.

[Kraken]

One hopes that Biden's private diplomacy is more forceful than his public proclamations. Being outraged and sad doesn't accomplish anything; forcing the IDF to escort aid shipments would. If conditions are being laid down for future arms shipments, this would be a good one to start with.

[Victoria Raverna]

White House: Nothing has changed. We are just going to continue to have those really tough conversations.



So still don't think Biden is weak when dealing with Israel?

[LordMortis]

f conditions are being laid down for future arms shipments, this would be a good one to start with.

I approve this message.

[hepcat]

White House: Nothing has changed. We are just going to continue to have those really tough conversations.

So still don't think Biden is weak when dealing with Israel?

Well, let's hope Trump wins. He's a staunch ally to Muslims around the world.

[LordMortis]

And known adversary of Net And Yahoo.

[Blackhawk]

So still don't think Biden is weak when dealing with Israel?

Depends. Still think that sitting at a computer reading stories based on partial information about issues of high national security interest gives you (or us) an accurate understanding of what's going on in the oval office?

[Victoria Raverna]

Maybe Biden in private in oval office had tough conversations with Israel leaders. He strongly condemn Israel's actions and told Israel it is not acceptable.

We can't see that, but we can see things that are in public.

I think we can all listen to Biden said how upset he was about Israel's actions. I think we can all use our own eyes to see that nothing changed. We can use our ears to listen to white house spokespersons telling us nothing changed. We can see that Israel continue to do bad things.

What can we conclude from that? Biden was very strong when dealing with Israel that Israel continued to ignore Biden and did things their ways?

[hepcat]

But we have to use our brains to realize that making a foreign sovereign nation...especially a key ally in a region that has repeatedly demanded the destruction of the west...do what you want isn't as simple as saying "roll over, now play dead" to an obedient dog. Especially with Netanyahu holding the leash.

[Dogstar]

CNN, AlJazeera and a few other news services have started to pick up the AI story, but nothing from NYT or WP yet. NPR and others had reported on a different system back in November and December, Gospel. As Pyperkub noted, it's practically borrowing the Project Insight storyline from Captain America: The Winter Soldier, minus the helicarriers and substituting bombs for guns, with far more horrifying real-world consequences. Highlights from the 792 article:

1. Sources were six Israeli whistleblowers
2. The AI program is called Lavender (different from Gospel, an AI program used to identify building targets)
3. Lavender classified 37,000 Palestinians as suspected militants
4. Humans served as a rubber stamp to target recommendations, spending 20 seconds to make sure that the target was male
5. System was estimated to have 10% error rate
6. System called "Where's Daddy" was used to track targets to their homes
7. IDF had a preference for attacking at night at target's home because it was more likely that they'd be there
8. More likely that they'd be surrounded by family though, leading to higher number of civilian casualties
9. Dumb bombs were used on low-level targets because IDF didn't wish to waste ordnance
10. 15-20 were acceptable civilian casualties for low-level targets, up to 100 or more for rare high-level targets
11. The use of this system and the classification of even low-level operatives differ from previous Israeli operations and conflicts
12. Lavender ranks all individuals surveilled through a mass surveillance program from 1 to 100 on likelihood of being a militant
13. Lavender sometimes mistakenly flagged individuals such as police, civil defense worker, family members, people with a similar name, or people who used the same electronic device as a Hamas member
14. There was no requirement for human verification of assessment in order to speed things up
15. The model used for calculating collateral damage is flawed
16. Target list parameters can be widened as necessary to generate additional targets
17. The system use has been reduced, partially due to American pressure, partially due to the widespread destruction of homes/buildings in Gaza, and partially because they didn't want to waste bombs

[GreenGoo]

Well, let's hope Trump wins. He's a staunch ally to Muslims around the world.

Luckily he'll have the defense industry lobbyists in his corner when Biden finally stops arm shipments to Israel. And things get worse in Gaza. Problem solved.

People think Biden isn't doing enough because Netanyahu won't stop. I get that. What do people think would make Netanyahu stop?

[Alefroth]

If conditions are being laid down for future arms shipments, this would be a good one to start with.

Seems like that might be the case-

https://apnews.com/article/biden-netany ... 0fccaef115

President Joe Biden issued a stark warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that future U.S. support for Israel’s Gaza war depends on the swift implementation of new steps to protect civilians and aid workers.

[Victoria Raverna]

[Victoria Raverna]

If conditions are being laid down for future arms shipments, this would be a good one to start with.

Seems like that might be the case-

https://apnews.com/article/biden-netany ... 0fccaef115

President Joe Biden issued a stark warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that future U.S. support for Israel’s Gaza war depends on the swift implementation of new steps to protect civilians and aid workers.

Hopefully this is not just a tough conversation that lead to no changes.

[Blackhawk]

Maybe Biden in private in oval office had tough conversations with Israel leaders. He strongly condemn Israel's actions and told Israel it is not acceptable.

We can't see that, but we can see things that are in public.

I think we can all listen to Biden said how upset he was about Israel's actions. I think we can all use our own eyes to see that nothing changed. We can use our ears to listen to white house spokespersons telling us nothing changed. We can see that Israel continue to do bad things.

What can we conclude from that? Biden was very strong when dealing with Israel that Israel continued to ignore Biden and did things their ways?

What can I conclude from that? That the White House isn't telling us everything.

The same way every President ever hasn't told us everything about sensitive diplomatic and national security issues. You know, the things that have never, and will never, be visible to the public.

[Victoria Raverna]

So don't trust our eyes and ears?

We repeatedly heard that BIden was upset about Israel's actions. We repeatedly saw Biden continues to support Israel unconditionally. We also repeatedly saw Israel kept doing thing that Biden was upset about.

So either Biden is weak, or Biden lied about being upset?

I prefer the first option because that means Biden is not a lying scumbag. Only powerless when dealing with Israel.

[Zarathud]

So don't trust our eyes and ears?

Not yours.

How about recognizing a tricky diplomatic situation rather than oversimplifying it so you can be outraged?

[Victoria Raverna]

Seem like you are also turning into something like MAGA. Just like MAGA can't admit anything bad about Trump. OO's Biden supporters are also can't admit anything bad about Biden.

Anything that make Biden looks bad are fake news or propaganda.

[Zarathud]

Again with the straw man, personal attacks.

I don’t think President Biden is perfect, but he’s a decent politician who is often unfairly criticized — not only by MAGA, but also by progressives who don’t understand governing. And by those willing to sacrifice others to advance their own narrow-minded agenda.

[LordMortis]

Seem like you are also turning into something like MAGA. Just like MAGA can't admit anything bad about Trump. OO's Biden supporters are also can't admit anything bad about Biden.

Anything that make Biden looks bad are fake news or propaganda.

That's a bit too far. Biden may be making incorrect decisions IMO on behalf of our nation, but that doesn't mean he's not in a no win situation. It's a question of which shit sandwich is worse. And when it comes Biden or even just on international relations, Biden may be a shit sandwich, but TFG is poison. That said, his presidency is making it more and more understandable how some supporters would shrug at the idea of poison, even if I can't stand the idea.

I fear things are going to get worse no matter which way direction they turn, even under Biden. Hamas got what Iran wanted out of all of this. The Israeli regime is clearly and brutally wrong unto criminality in their response and we are acting as accomplices top that brutality.

[Victoria Raverna]

To say Biden is wrong doesn't mean that Trump is going to be better. It is just Biden is wrong in this.

[Unagi]

So either Biden is weak, or Biden lied about being upset?

Think about what you are saying - are you assuming that a "Strong" Biden would be able to manipulate Netanyaho? Is that your entire premise? That Netanyaho is manipulatable, but we have the wrong man in office to manipulate him right now?

And so this is all really about Biden - and not simply about Netanhayo. I mean - if the President of France starts doing some bad shit, is that also because Biden is too weak to control him/her?

Where are all the levers that Widodo has that he isn't pulling? Honestly, why the fuck isn't your leader doing a single god damn thing here either?
Honestly?
Of course, you have no levers at all. But if you had levers - your president would also be deliberate in their use - or else he wouldn't be your leader for very long at all.


You have this very black-and-white program running in your head right now. We all want Biden to add more and more pressure on Israel. I also feel he isn't "doing enough". I'm also okay with saying that Biden isn't doing everything I want him to do, but I also am a grown adult and I understand that politically it's not as simple as I want it to be. You want me to conclude: "Biden is wrong". Wrong? What does that even mean here?

What's important, for starters - is you have an American President who has publicly threatened to change Israeli policy. You can be sure that's a public statement that is backed up by a lot more private statements.
And I'm sorry to let you know, VR, that's as good as it's going to get for this step in the process.

You need to realize that the other choice (and the political pressure that Biden is up against in a critical (*CRITICAL) election year here) is the GOP - and that is WORLDS worse.

So, be an adult with us, VR, and take that into your world-view.

Yes, Biden should do 'more', and I think he wants to do 'more', but he understands the world he is in better than you do, I believe.


I'm frustrated with Biden too. He's our best. Deal with it.

[Unagi]

Seem like you are also turning into something like MAGA. Just like MAGA can't admit anything bad about Trump. OO's Biden supporters are also can't admit anything bad about Biden.

Anything that make Biden looks bad are fake news or propaganda.

Not really.

Not really at all.

Biden supporters are really just staunch Trump underminers - and we see your efforts to tear down Biden as not helpful.

[hepcat]

Seem like you are also turning into something like MAGA. Just like MAGA can't admit anything bad about Trump. OO's Biden supporters are also can't admit anything bad about Biden.

Anything that make Biden looks bad are fake news or propaganda.

Look, I know this is personally painful for you. I understand that what Israel is doing is awful. But I just want to ask you to take a look at every politician you've ever supported in your life and then research their histories while in office. I'm sure you'll find that most, if not all of them, have done something you disagreed with you because they had no choice/were trying to work within the bounds they had in order to avoid destroying everything for the chance of immediate results. That's how politics work, unfortunately.

I can't think of a single president in our history that wouldn't be doing what Biden is doing right now. And that includes a fellow Muslim, Barack Hussein Obama.

[GreenGoo]

<snip>

Holy shit, there isn't a +1 big enough for this. Thanks Unagi, for saying what many of us have tried to say, over and over, to deaf ears.

And just for those watching in the bleachers: No, this does not make anyone here morally reprehensible.

[Victoria Raverna]

What I don't understand is why you think he can't do more? He was against putting any condition on the military aid to Israel but now the latest news is that he warned Israel that there'll be condition.

If he is serious about that, then that was an example of him doing more than just begging Israel to stop. Now if he can do more now, why can't he do more last month? Why it took killings of non Palestinians for him to consider doing more? 30K Palestinians are nothing compare to 6 non Palestinians that got killed?

Also you don't need to be a muslim to want to do more to reduce killing of Palestinian civilians. You just have to be someone that think Palestinians are humans like us, not human animals.

[Victoria Raverna]

Seem like you are also turning into something like MAGA. Just like MAGA can't admit anything bad about Trump. OO's Biden supporters are also can't admit anything bad about Biden.

Anything that make Biden looks bad are fake news or propaganda.

Not really.

Not really at all.

Biden supporters are really just staunch Trump underminers - and we see your efforts to tear down Biden as not helpful.

So no one should criticize Biden at all because you fear Trump?

[Unagi]

Seem like you are also turning into something like MAGA. Just like MAGA can't admit anything bad about Trump. OO's Biden supporters are also can't admit anything bad about Biden.

Anything that make Biden looks bad are fake news or propaganda.

Not really.

Not really at all.

Biden supporters are really just staunch Trump underminers - and we see your efforts to tear down Biden as not helpful.

So no one should criticize Biden at all because you fear Trump?

This isn't about 'fear', which is a word that can describe an unfortunate over-reaction to a perceived threat that can then lead someone to doing the wrong thing or make bad choices or act irrationally.

This is about walking a very thin political line that needs to be walked to perfection. The threat of Trump is real and of a nature that isn't like Bush Jr. or even Mitch McConnel, it's really critical that we get this one under our belt.
It's about relationships with a strategic ally.
It's about Muslim extremism.
It's about anti-semitism.
It's about the right-wing in Israel.
It's about a whole lot of things - but "fear" is a crap way to describe it. The way forward isn't at all -perfectly clear-, especially with a political lens.


You say that Biden supporters turn to "fake news!" when confronted with ugly truths about Biden, but that's entirely inaccurate. "Biden supporters" on this forum seem to be fairly consistently communicating their frustration with Biden not putting enough pressure on Netanyahu and struggling to support Israel without supporting this war. You will find no such nuance in the MAGA community's support for Trump, and your quick and careless pronouncement of Biden supporters to be like MAGA only serves to undermine any message you hope to make.

IMO.