Israel–United States relations and associated politics

[Unagi]

I do think it's a great/clever way to hit at Hezbollah.

But you know in the room where the tactic was discussed, the phrase; "I honestly don't care who else gets hurt", was very likely said.

[msduncan]

First of all, I had no idea we were walking around with bombs on our hips back in the 90s.

Secondly - strategically it's a pretty interesting strike. You simultaneously disable a part of their communications network while also disabling (up to) thousands of fighters. Or at least causing them not to be 100% healthy. It also pulls resources from the front.

[Holman]

I assume the method was that pagers were fitted with very small explosives and then substituted for pagers that were to be distributed to Hezzbolah agents. I assume normal pagers don't contain elements that can be remotely ordered to explode.

Also... pagers? Is Hezzbolah stuck in 1997?

[El Guapo]

I assume the method was that pagers were fitted with very small explosives and then substituted for pagers that were to be distributed to Hezzbolah agents. I assume normal pagers don't contain elements that can be remotely ordered to explode.

Also... pagers? Is Hezzbolah stuck in 1997?

What I've read is that Hezbollah specifically switched to pagers in order to keep their communications network from being compromised by Israel.

[Isgrimnur]

Mission failed successfully.

[Kurth]

At any rate, to be clear, I take no issue with Israel (or whoever it was, since the Israelis haven't owned this yet afaik) killing/maiming Hezbollah fighters/leaders, or Hamas fighters/leaders, or IRGC fighters/leaders, or Houthi fighters/leaders, or whatever other pertinent extremist groups are slipping my mind at the moment, but I am very fucking tired about reading about indiscriminate civilian casualties.

Echoing El Guapo, I just can't see how you can label this attack as "indiscriminate." They were Hezbollah pagers. They appear to have been designed to do relatively little collateral damage. If you take no issue with Israel defending itself against Hezbollah or Hamas or other enemies sworn to its destruction, but this type of targeted operation is off the table, what kind of actions are on the table for Israel?

It's still early. We'll eventually see how many of the two or three thousand injured are legitmate Hezbollah targets and how many are collateral damage. So far, of the 9 confirmed fatalities only one is a child, so I guess that's cool.

What are you talking about? It's never too early to condemn Israeli terrorism. You've lost the thread, man.

[Kurth]

I do think it's a great/clever way to hit at Hezbollah.

But you know in the room where the tactic was discussed, the phrase; "I honestly don't care who else gets hurt", was very likely said.

So . . . where does that leave you in the condemn or do not condemn Israeli terrorism camp? We must know.

[Grifman]

While I shed no tears for Hezbollah, I think the collateral damage is too great. Over 2800 people have been hospitalized, and I suspect many are civilians who just got caught up in the explosions.

[Victoria Raverna]

What if it is the other way around? Hezbollah killed 3 IDF soldiers by detonating 2000+ mobile phones? War crime? Terrorism?

[Max Peck]

AP and others are now starting to report details on how the attack was carried out.

Hezbollah hit by a wave of exploding pagers and blames Israel. At least 9 dead, thousands injured

A U.S. official said Israel briefed the U.S. on the operation — in which small amounts of explosive secreted in the pagers were detonated — on Tuesday after it was concluded. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the information publicly.

Sean Moorhouse, a former British Army officer and explosive ordnance disposal expert, said videos of the blasts suggested a small explosive charge — as small as a pencil eraser — had been placed into the devices. They would have had to have been rigged prior to delivery, very likely by Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, he said.

Elijah J. Magnier, a Brussels-based senior political risk analyst, said he spoke with Hezbollah members who had examined pagers that failed to explode. What triggered the blasts, he said, appeared to be an error message sent to all the devices that caused them to vibrate, forcing the user to click on the buttons to stop the vibration. The combination detonated a small amount of explosives hidden inside and ensured that the user was present when the blast went off, he said.

[Isgrimnur]

So who was in the chest of drawers clearing the error message?

[Max Peck]

So who was in the chest of drawers clearing the error message?

Maybe the vibration caused a "butt dial" while it was bouncing around on a hard surface? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's also possible that the detonator mechanisms had a failsafe that triggered after a short period of time in the absence of user interaction. That would explain why some went off in pockets and bags rather than in a target's hands.

[Unagi]

I do think it's a great/clever way to hit at Hezbollah.

But you know in the room where the tactic was discussed, the phrase; "I honestly don't care who else gets hurt", was very likely said.

So . . . where does that leave you in the condemn or do not condemn Israeli terrorism camp? We must know.

I’ve long ago learned that condemning anything here on this thread is mostly pointless.


Who doesn’t condemn terrorism?
Don’t put words in people’s mouths or leap to conclusions.

[Unagi]

While I shed no tears for Hezbollah, I think the collateral damage is too great. Over 2800 people have been hospitalized, and I suspect many are civilians who just got caught up in the explosions.

Basically where I’m at.

[Max Peck]

Over 2800 people have been hospitalized, and I suspect many are civilians who just got caught up in the explosions.

Now that there is a bit more information available on the devices, I'm not sure that I'd expect as many collateral injuries as I initially feared, although it's clear that the number is non-zero. Some reports I've read say that there may have been as many as 5000 compromised pagers, based on the size of the order that they received. If that's true, then seeing a total number of injuries among intended targets of about half that number may not be unreasonable, if the devices largely worked as intended and went off in a Hezbollah user's hands.

[Kurth]

I do think it's a great/clever way to hit at Hezbollah.

But you know in the room where the tactic was discussed, the phrase; "I honestly don't care who else gets hurt", was very likely said.

So . . . where does that leave you in the condemn or do not condemn Israeli terrorism camp? We must know.

I’ve long ago learned that condemning anything here on this thread is mostly pointless.


Who doesn’t condemn terrorism?
Don’t put words in people’s mouths or leap to conclusions.

Not putting words in anyone's mouth, Unagi, but I can see where that post could easily be misunderstood. It was meant as a humorous mix of sarcasm and criticism of folks who suggested this Israeli operation amounted to terrorism and others who seemed to think it was ok to criticize Israel on the one hand while conceding that it was too early to tell what the results were on the other.

I should remember we're talking about Israel: Humor and sarcasm are probably best left alone.

[Isgrimnur]

At least when there's not a clear indicator of sarcasm, probably.

[Victoria Raverna]

Anything that by Israel is never terrorism or war crime. Anything by enemies of Israel is always terrorism, right?

[Blackhawk]

Correct.

[Max Peck]

The BBC has spun up one of it's live reporting feeds for coverage of the pager attack story.

• Israel's Mossad spy agency placed explosives in thousands of Hezbollah pagers before they detonated across Lebanon, multiple reports say
• The health ministry says at least 12 people were killed - including two children - and thousands injured when the pagers went off on Tuesday
• A senior Lebanese security source tells Reuters the pagers were brought into the country months ago
• Separately, Israeli and US sources say Israel detonated the pagers earlier than planned, fearing that Hezbollah had become aware of the plan
• Hezbollah used pagers after banning mobile phones earlier this year, saying they were too easy to track
• The pagers seemed to carry a Taiwanese brand - but Taiwanese firm Gold Apollo denies any involvement, saying the pagers were made by a Hungarian firm
• A munition expert tells the BBC the devices were likely packed with up to 20 grams of military-grade high explosive

[Unagi]

Yeah. I would put that into the 'indiscriminate' bucket.

Now sure how one could say otherwise. They distributed thousands of small packages of high-grade explosives throughout the populations and then detonated them all at the same time.

Also, I imagine that the 'user' didn't need to press any buttons for them to detonate, and rather the vibrations/alerts were designed to be sure someone was near the pager when it went off - not an attempt to ensure the target was 'enemy'.

[GreenGoo]

It's probably cheaper to just fire rockets randomly into the populace, although it's also likely less effective at hitting enemy combatants.

[El Guapo]

Yeah. I would put that into the 'indiscriminate' bucket.

Now sure how one could say otherwise. They distributed thousands of small packages of high-grade explosives throughout the populations and then detonated them all at the same time.

Also, I imagine that the 'user' didn't need to press any buttons for them to detonate, and rather the vibrations/alerts were designed to be sure someone was near the pager when it went off - not an attempt to ensure the target was 'enemy'.

To me it's mainly contingent on these pagers specifically being distributed by Hezbollah to its members for use fighting for Hezbollah. And everything I've read so far indicates that's the case. And it appears that the amount of explosives in the pagers were enough to injure the person with the pager but not people nearby. If so, it's hard to imagine a more targeted attack to me - it's designed specifically to injure Hezbollah members and no one else.

That said, obviously things can go wrong - one specific Hezbollah member left his pager at home that day and it gets picked up by his wife, one person packing explosives into a specific pager accidentally puts too much in, etc., such that it's not going to be possible to get 100% success rate in only injuring Hezbollah fighters. But that's going to be true for almost any attack of any type.

[Unagi]

If so, it's hard to imagine a more targeted attack to me - it's designed specifically to injure Hezbollah members and no one else.

You are talking to the plan's ideals not its execution.

Did it achieve its designed goal to specifically injure Hezbollah members "and no one else" ? That's crazy talk, if you ask me.

[El Guapo]

If so, it's hard to imagine a more targeted attack to me - it's designed specifically to injure Hezbollah members and no one else.

You are talking to the plan's ideals not its execution.

Did it achieve its designed goal to specifically injure Hezbollah members "and no one else" ? That's crazy talk, if you ask me.

I know, but this stuff needs to be planned in the real world. The best one can do (and the best we can expect from a military) is to design attacks to minimize non-combatant casualties. If we demand zero non-combatant casualties, then we're effectively telling them that they can't counter-attack at all. Maybe that's a position one wants to take, but we should just be clear about that if so.

And no, I assume that the attack was not executed perfectly and with nothing unexpected or not working as designed. But as a hypothetical suppose the attack injured 2,798 Hezbollah fighters and 2 non-combatants. That would both be a tragedy and an incredible success.

[Max Peck]

It's probably cheaper to just fire rockets randomly into the populace, although it's also likely less effective at hitting enemy combatants.

It would be easier but probably not cheaper, at least in terms of a budget line in some bureaucrat's ledger. The upper limit on the amount of explosive material in each pager seems to be on the order of 20mg. If I'm mathing goodly, given something like 5000 pagers that's only .1 kg of explosive in total, far less that what would go into the warhead of even a single rocket.

[Unagi]

But as a hypothetical suppose the attack injured 2,798 Hezbollah fighters and 2 non-combatants. That would both be a tragedy and an incredible success.

Academically speaking, I would be "okay" with the numbers you just described...

But what if, hypothetically, the attack killed 2 children and 4 Hezbollah - and seriously injured 7,000 non-combatants vs 1,000 Hezbollah combatants.

It seems those numbers are not unrealistic, and I would not be "okay" with those numbers.



What if thousands of our military members were attacked by way of their smartphones exploding - and we heard of thousands of stories of children and wives being the victims of those explosions. I can't imagine we wouldn't label those as terrorist attacks.

[hepcat]

It's probably cheaper to just fire rockets randomly into the populace, although it's also likely less effective at hitting enemy combatants.

It would be easier but probably not cheaper, at least in terms of a budget line in some bureaucrat's ledger. The upper limit on the amount of explosive material in each pager seems to be on the order of 20mg. If I'm mathing goodly, given something like 5000 pagers that's only .1 kg of explosive in total, far less that what would go into the warhead of even a single rocket.

I feel like casualties was a secondary consideration in this attack. I'm betting doubt, confusion and fear were the goals. The only thing keeping me from applying the word "terrorism" to this operation is that the targets themselves weren't civilians. Although if the reported number of civilians injured in this attack are to believed, I could see how the edges blur there.

There's also a victim here that I don't believe has been mentioned: the brand emblazoned on all the pagers. Gold Apollo has said they let others use their brand name and that this was the work of a European company. However, the damage to their brand name has been done. I have to wonder if they have any legal avenues available to them if Israel openly cops to this.

[Max Peck]

And no, I assume that the attack was not executed perfectly and with nothing unexpected or not working as designed. But as a hypothetical suppose the attack injured 2,798 Hezbollah fighters and 2 non-combatants. That would both be a tragedy and an incredible success.

The actual plan was for this to be the opening move in a full-on assault on Hezbollah but they pulled the trigger early because they became concerned that Hezbollah was about to wise up to the compromised pagers. We know this because there's always someone with a security clearance that is willing to talk to a reporter...

Separately, Israeli and US sources tell Axios and Al-Monitor the explosions were initially planned as the opening move in an "all-out" offensive against Hezbollah.

But in recent days, Israel became concerned Hezbollah had become aware of the plan - so they were detonated early.

"It was a use it or lose it moment," a US official tells Axios.

[El Guapo]

But as a hypothetical suppose the attack injured 2,798 Hezbollah fighters and 2 non-combatants. That would both be a tragedy and an incredible success.

Academically speaking, I would be "okay" with the numbers you just described...

But what if, hypothetically, the attack killed 2 children and 4 Hezbollah - and seriously injured 7,000 non-combatants vs 1,000 Hezbollah combatants.

It seems those numbers are not unrealistic, and I would not be "okay" with those numbers.



What if thousands of our military members were attacked by way of their smartphones exploding - and we heard of thousands of stories of children and wives being the victims of those explosions. I can't imagine we wouldn't label those as terrorist attacks.

On the first part, 7,000 non-combatants to 1,000 Hezbollah combatants would not be ok. I disagree that those are realistic numbers though from what I can tell from this attack, given that the explosive size appears to have been enough to injure the person with the pager on them and not people nearby. So numbers like that would indicate that there was something wrong with the design of the plan.

On the second, it would matter whether we were at war at the time. Obviously we would never be ok with American soldiers being attacked (nor do I expect Hezbollah to be ok with this). But in the context of a conflict this is like snipers attacking soldiers not in a battle - fighting dirty to a degree but fighting.

[Unagi]

If this became a 'use it or lose it' thing, I imagine the careful measures of collateral damage were among the first concerns put aside.

[Unagi]

But in the context of a conflict this is like snipers attacking soldiers not in a battle - fighting dirty to a degree but fighting.

I'm happy to move this into the academic discussion.

I would say this is more like blowing up a soldier's iPhone. If they are 'deployed' and in the field, or at the base, etc - what a wonderful way to target them.

But if we know for a fact that they are actually just walking around town and going to the market and movie theaters, etc - - - I imagine that would change the calculus, as you are basically certain to include more non-combatants than not.


I'm also not entirely getting on board this "carefully measured dose of explosives designed to only kill/injure the right person". This is just not how one treats explosives in the real world, ever.

[Max Peck]

There's also a victim here that I don't believe has been mentioned: the brand emblazoned on all the pagers. Gold Apollo has said they let others use their brand name and that this was the work of a European company. However, the damage to their brand name has been done. I have to wonder if they have any legal avenues available to them if Israel openly cops to this.

From what I've seen, Gold Apollo doesn't actually make anything, they just exist to sell a brand to 3rd parties who actually manufacture and sell the products. If your business plan is to obfuscate the actual source of crappy knockoff products, I'm not going to shed any tears about reputational blowback when one of those products turns out to be a murder bomb.

The Hungarian firm that actually supplied the pagers is looking shady AF. It wouldn't surprise me at this point if they're actually a front for an intelligence agency <cough>Ossadmay</cough>.

The model of pagers used in detonations in Lebanon were made by Budapest-based BAC Consulting, Taiwanese pager firm Gold Apollo said on Wednesday, noting it had only licensed out its brand to the company and was not involved in the production of the devices.

"The product was not ours. It was only that it had our brand on it," Gold Apollo founder and president Hsu Ching-kuang told reporters at the company's offices in the northern Taiwanese city of New Taipei on Wednesday.

The Gold Apollo-brand pagers used in detonations in Lebanon were made by Budapest-based BAC Consulting, the Taiwanese pager firm says. Gold Apollo says it licensed out its brand to the Hungarian company and was not involved in the production of the devices.

The company said in a statement that the AR-924 model was produced and sold by BAC Consulting.

The stated address for BAC Consulting in Hungary's capital Budapest was a peach building on a mostly residential street in an outer suburb. The company name was posted on the glass door on an A4 sheet.

A person at the building who asked not to be named said BAC Consulting was registered there but did not have a physical presence. The CEO of BAC Consulting, Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono, says on her LinkedIn profile that she has worked as an adviser for various organizations including UNESCO. She did not respond to emails from Reuters.

Hsu said earlier there had been problems with remittances from the firm.

"The remittance was very strange," he said, saying that payments had come through the Middle East. He did not elaborate further.

Hsu said he did not know how the pagers could have been rigged to explode.

While Hsu was meeting with reporters, police officials arrived at the company. Officials from Taiwan's Economy Ministry also visited Gold Apollo.

The ministry said in a statement that there was no record of direct pager exports from Taiwan to Lebanon.

Hsu also said Gold Apollo was a victim of the incident and planned to sue the licensee.

"We may not be a large company but we are a responsible one," he said. "This is very embarrassing."

[Blackhawk]

The BBC has spun up one of it's live reporting feeds for coverage of the pager attack story.

• Separately, Israeli and US sources say Israel detonated the pagers earlier than planned, fearing that Hezbollah had become aware of the plan

A more recent update says that the original goal was to detonate them, and immediately follow with a huge barrage and/or direct action while Hezbollah was recovering from the chaos. Given that this hits their communications directly, that's actually a fairly effective ploy.

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

[El Guapo]

But in the context of a conflict this is like snipers attacking soldiers not in a battle - fighting dirty to a degree but fighting.

I'm happy to move this into the academic discussion.

I would say this is more like blowing up a soldier's iPhone. If they are 'deployed' and in the field, or at the base, etc - what a wonderful way to target them.

But if we know for a fact that they are actually just walking around town and going to the market and movie theaters, etc - - - I imagine that would change the calculus, as you are basically certain to include more non-combatants than not.


I'm also not entirely getting on board this "carefully measured dose of explosives designed to only kill/injure the right person". This is just not how one treats explosives in the real world, ever.

On the dose of explosives, I'm mostly going by the video I've seen of pagers going off. I know nothing's 100%, and like I said the bigger the explosion the less targeted / supportable the attack is, but as far as I can tell it seems to have generally worked as designed. Seems like that's also reflected in the (as of now) high injury to fatality ratio - if the explosive generally wasn't enough to kill the person wearing the pager, then that supports the conclusion that it generally wasn't enough to seriously injure bystanders.

[Unagi]

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

Yeah, I've been assuming it was a direct Hezbollah order and not just a bunch of pagers randomly sent to Lebanon. Cause, like - that would be pretty horrible.

[hepcat]

From what I've seen, Gold Apollo doesn't actually make anything, they just exist to sell a brand to 3rd parties who actually manufacture and sell the products. If your business plan is to obfuscate the actual source of crappy knockoff products, I'm not going to shed any tears about reputational blowback when one of those products turns out to be a murder bomb.

So for all intents and purposes, they're the Trumps of pagers?

[El Guapo]

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

Yeah, I've been assuming it was a direct Hezbollah order and not just a bunch of pagers randomly sent to Lebanon. Cause, like - that would be pretty horrible.

Yeah that would be an indiscriminate attack. When I first heard about the attack I was worried that it was going to be like Israel had detonated pagers in some neighborhood or area known to be frequented by Hezbollah fighters. But this wasn't that.

[El Guapo]

From what I've seen, Gold Apollo doesn't actually make anything, they just exist to sell a brand to 3rd parties who actually manufacture and sell the products. If your business plan is to obfuscate the actual source of crappy knockoff products, I'm not going to shed any tears about reputational blowback when one of those products turns out to be a murder bomb.

So for all intents and purposes, they're the Trumps of pagers?

This is going to devastate Gold Apollo's division that sells pagers to terrorist militias.

[hepcat]

Especially when Trump brand pagers enter the market place next week after!

"They're the juiciest, tastiest pagers you can buy!"

(they just reused marketing material from Trump Steaks)