Israel–United States relations and associated politics

[Unagi]

But in the context of a conflict this is like snipers attacking soldiers not in a battle - fighting dirty to a degree but fighting.

I'm happy to move this into the academic discussion.

I would say this is more like blowing up a soldier's iPhone. If they are 'deployed' and in the field, or at the base, etc - what a wonderful way to target them.

But if we know for a fact that they are actually just walking around town and going to the market and movie theaters, etc - - - I imagine that would change the calculus, as you are basically certain to include more non-combatants than not.


I'm also not entirely getting on board this "carefully measured dose of explosives designed to only kill/injure the right person". This is just not how one treats explosives in the real world, ever.

On the dose of explosives, I'm mostly going by the video I've seen of pagers going off. I know nothing's 100%, and like I said the bigger the explosion the less targeted / supportable the attack is, but as far as I can tell it seems to have generally worked as designed. Seems like that's also reflected in the (as of now) high injury to fatality ratio - if the explosive generally wasn't enough to kill the person wearing the pager, then that supports the conclusion that it generally wasn't enough to seriously injure bystanders.

That's just it - it's like they are trying to tell the world that they got the exact amount of explosives to be effective at actually taking an enemy off the gameboard, but also not enough as to be a danger to anyone that "has nothing to hide"... "This was perfectly targeted - and civilians have nothing to fear beyond their ties to Hezbollah." I mean, not really - right? from the videos.....


One may argue it was a great way to start a larger attack, and sew confusion, etc - but without that larger attack pending: it was just a reckless random series of small explosions throughout the population - killing very few but terrorizing thousands... oh - and killing a couple kids too.

[GreenGoo]

It's probably cheaper to just fire rockets randomly into the populace, although it's also likely less effective at hitting enemy combatants.

It would be easier but probably not cheaper, at least in terms of a budget line in some bureaucrat's ledger. The upper limit on the amount of explosive material in each pager seems to be on the order of 20mg. If I'm mathing goodly, given something like 5000 pagers that's only .1 kg of explosive in total, far less that what would go into the warhead of even a single rocket.

Perhaps, but labour tends to be a large line item as well. And I think bribes probably fall into this category too.

[Max Peck]

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

Did anyone imply otherwise? My concern was primarily in regard to injuries to bystanders when they were detonated, not that they were in use by the general public.

[El Guapo]

But in the context of a conflict this is like snipers attacking soldiers not in a battle - fighting dirty to a degree but fighting.

I'm happy to move this into the academic discussion.

I would say this is more like blowing up a soldier's iPhone. If they are 'deployed' and in the field, or at the base, etc - what a wonderful way to target them.

But if we know for a fact that they are actually just walking around town and going to the market and movie theaters, etc - - - I imagine that would change the calculus, as you are basically certain to include more non-combatants than not.


I'm also not entirely getting on board this "carefully measured dose of explosives designed to only kill/injure the right person". This is just not how one treats explosives in the real world, ever.

On the dose of explosives, I'm mostly going by the video I've seen of pagers going off. I know nothing's 100%, and like I said the bigger the explosion the less targeted / supportable the attack is, but as far as I can tell it seems to have generally worked as designed. Seems like that's also reflected in the (as of now) high injury to fatality ratio - if the explosive generally wasn't enough to kill the person wearing the pager, then that supports the conclusion that it generally wasn't enough to seriously injure bystanders.

That's just it - it's like they are trying to tell the world that they got the exact amount of explosives to be effective at actually taking an enemy off the gameboard, but also not enough as to be a danger to anyone that "has nothing to hide"... "This was perfectly targeted - and civilians have nothing to fear beyond their ties to Hezbollah." I mean, not really - right? from the videos.....


One may argue it was a great way to start a larger attack, and sew confusion, etc - but without that larger attack pending: it was just a reckless random series of small explosions throughout the population - killing very few but terrorizing thousands... oh - and killing a couple kids too.

I'm not going from anything that Israel is saying, but from everything I've read / seen about the attack so far. And I feel like we're just going in circles at this point, but as long as those pagers were distributed specifically to Hezbollah members - which again appears to be the case - then it's not a "random series of small explosions throughout the population". It's a series of pagers exploding in the pockets / bags / etc. of Hezbollah fighters.

[Blackhawk]

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

Did anyone imply otherwise? My concern was primarily in regard to injuries to bystanders when they were detonated, not that they were in use by the general public.

Not specifically, but I've also seen references to 'randomly among the populace', which is something I thought it was worth clarifying.

[Kurth]

Israel is not done targeting Hezbollah through its communication network: Israel detonates Hezbollah walkie talkies in second wave after pager attack

Israel blew up thousands of two-way personal radios used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon in a second wave of an intelligence operation that started on Tuesday with the explosions of pager devices, two sources with knowledge of the operation told Axios.

Why it matters: The second wave of clandestine attacks is another serious security breach in Hezbollah's ranks and increases the pressure on the militant Lebanese group.

[Max Peck]

It's probably cheaper to just fire rockets randomly into the populace, although it's also likely less effective at hitting enemy combatants.

It would be easier but probably not cheaper, at least in terms of a budget line in some bureaucrat's ledger. The upper limit on the amount of explosive material in each pager seems to be on the order of 20mg. If I'm mathing goodly, given something like 5000 pagers that's only .1 kg of explosive in total, far less that what would go into the warhead of even a single rocket.

Perhaps, but labour tends to be a large line item as well. And I think bribes probably fall into this category too.

I did consider the HR and operational expenses, but the spooks doing the work were going to get paid either way. If they weren't busy with this, they'd have been cooking up something else.

[Unagi]

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

Did anyone imply otherwise? My concern was primarily in regard to injuries to bystanders when they were detonated, not that they were in use by the general public.

Not specifically, but I've also seen references to 'randomly among the populace', which is something I thought it was worth clarifying.

Any mention of that, that I've read or personally said, has been about the location of the Hezbollah member when his pager blew up. Not about the pager itself being randomly dispersed.

(just clarifying, not arguing)

[hepcat]

Israel is not done targeting Hezbollah through its communication network: Israel detonates Hezbollah walkie talkies in second wave after pager attack

Israel blew up thousands of two-way personal radios used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon in a second wave of an intelligence operation that started on Tuesday with the explosions of pager devices, two sources with knowledge of the operation told Axios.

Why it matters: The second wave of clandestine attacks is another serious security breach in Hezbollah's ranks and increases the pressure on the militant Lebanese group.

I hate the civilian injuries, but I have to admit this sounds like something that will have a long lasting, detrimental affect on hezbollah...if not every enemy of Israel.

[Grifman]

Damn, the Israeli’s are good at this stuff. Think of the planning and effort that had to go into both of these set of attacks.

[Max Peck]

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

Did anyone imply otherwise? My concern was primarily in regard to injuries to bystanders when they were detonated, not that they were in use by the general public.

Not specifically, but I've also seen references to 'randomly among the populace', which is something I thought it was worth clarifying.

There's still a lot of fog-of-war at play. I've seen reports that some of the casualties were medical personnel, but it isn't clear whether they're talking about Hezbollah members who happened to be medics or if some of the pagers ended up being used by healthcare workers (hospitals being one of the segments were pagers are still somewhat common, as I understand it). IIRC, Hezbollah does things like providing/supporting social services in order to bolster support in the general population, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they may have given some compromised pagers to hospitals or other external entities.

[Unagi]

Let’s be clear.

There are no rules for Israel.
(Nor Hezbollah, I’m well aware!)

They will freely attack a hospital or ‘orphanage’ or ‘insert address here’ if they can show evidence of an enemy making use of the facility. Conversation is over.

One can reserve passing judgement on that, one way or the other, but at this juncture it would be helpful if we could agree clearly on their MO.

And that MO will justify the ‘collateral’ damage at every turn.

[Kraken]

Damn, the Israeli’s are good at this stuff. Think of the planning and effort that had to go into both of these set of attacks.

Setting aside the questions of morality and effectiveness, it's damned clever. I'll wager nobody had "exploding comm devices" on their bingo card.

[Unagi]

Damn, the Israeli’s are good at this stuff. Think of the planning and effort that had to go into both of these set of attacks.

Setting aside the questions of morality and effectiveness, it's damned clever. I'll wager nobody had "exploding comm devices" on their bingo card.

I imagine a few Cyberpunk players did.

[Max Peck]

Israel is not done targeting Hezbollah through its communication network: Israel detonates Hezbollah walkie talkies in second wave after pager attack

Israel blew up thousands of two-way personal radios used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon in a second wave of an intelligence operation that started on Tuesday with the explosions of pager devices, two sources with knowledge of the operation told Axios.

Why it matters: The second wave of clandestine attacks is another serious security breach in Hezbollah's ranks and increases the pressure on the militant Lebanese group.

I hate the civilian injuries, but I have to admit this sounds like something that will have a long lasting, detrimental affect on hezbollah...if not every enemy of Israel.

It definitely will have a short term tactical effect (remember that this was all intended to be part of the opening phase of an assault, that may still be coming) but I not sure that it will have it will have the long term strategic effect that you anticipate. Ultimately, the Israeli success is dependant on an opsec failure by Hezbollah -- it apparently never occurred to them to check these devices before distributing them. Now that the cat is out of the bag, potential targets are going to be scrambling to close that gap, if it exists in other organizations in the first place. It's puzzling that they just started using off the shelf comms gear of any kind without checking to see if it was tampered with in any way, especially given their concerns about comsec.

In the long term, all the fighters maimed or killed in the attacks will be more than replaced by new recruits who were radicalized by what is happening this week. It's one of those things about war that never changes.

[Kurth]

Let’s be clear.

There are no rules for Israel.
(Nor Hezbollah, I’m well aware!)

They will freely attack a hospital or ‘orphanage’ or ‘insert address here’ if they can show evidence of an enemy making use of the facility. Conversation is over.

One can reserve passing judgement on that, one way or the other, but at this juncture it would be helpful if we could agree clearly on their MO.

And that MO will justify the ‘collateral’ damage at every turn.

That is hyperbole and simply not true. So, no, it would not be helpful if we all just signed on to that.

[Unagi]

As stated, it may be hyperbole to some degree - but it's been demonstrated time and time again. I don't need to provide evidence. It's what most of this thread has been talking about.

[Grifman]

Everything is going now:

[Blackhawk]

It should sow enough chaos for Israel to establish a beachhead, if that's their goal, with far less organized resistance.

[Kurth]

As stated, it may be hyperbole to some degree - but it's been demonstrated time and time again. I don't need to provide evidence. It's what most of this thread has been talking about.

Most of this thread has been criticism of the rules Israel plays by. It has not been an attack on the country that it has no rules. That’s just wrong.

[hepcat]

I think there's been plenty of condemnation of Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. But there's also a belief that Hamas is holding Palestine hostage to ITS wants and desires and is not reflective of the majority, so there's a clear distinction drawn between Hamas and Palestine most of the time. Whereas the Israeli military and other agencies are seen as being the will of Israel...even if they have many citizens who disagree with Netanyahu's tactics. But I could be wrong on some of those distinctions.

[Unagi]

As stated, it may be hyperbole to some degree - but it's been demonstrated time and time again. I don't need to provide evidence. It's what most of this thread has been talking about.

Most of this thread has been criticism of the rules Israel plays by. It has not been an attack on the country that it has no rules. That’s just wrong.

Okay, I'm not following the semantic distinction between - "has no rules" vs "the rules they have are very hard to see"


But - yeah - ya got me on hyperbole. They do not have Zero rules. True.

[Unagi]

I think there's been plenty of condemnation of Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. But there's also a belief that Hamas is holding Palestine hostage to ITS wants and desires and is not reflective of the majority, so there's a clear distinction drawn between Hamas and Palestine most of the time. Whereas the Israeli military and other agencies are seen as being the will of Israel...even if they have many citizens who disagree with Netanyahu's tactics. But I could be wrong on some of those distinctions.

I agree with that statement entirely. But Kirth wasn't lamenting that we didn't condemn Hezbollah/Hamas - Kirth was putting a finer point on what the critique of Israel has been, in our thread, to correct my hyperbolic statement.

[Blackhawk]

I've quit condemning the factions in this thread. Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel - none are in the right. But I think I've established that as my view to the point where I'd just be repeating myself, so I am mostly just looking at what's happening and the likely impacts.

[El Guapo]

Also, from what I've read, they didn't distribute these things randomly. They inserted them into an order directly from Hezbollah.

Did anyone imply otherwise? My concern was primarily in regard to injuries to bystanders when they were detonated, not that they were in use by the general public.

Not specifically, but I've also seen references to 'randomly among the populace', which is something I thought it was worth clarifying.

There's still a lot of fog-of-war at play. I've seen reports that some of the casualties were medical personnel, but it isn't clear whether they're talking about Hezbollah members who happened to be medics or if some of the pagers ended up being used by healthcare workers (hospitals being one of the segments were pagers are still somewhat common, as I understand it). IIRC, Hezbollah does things like providing/supporting social services in order to bolster support in the general population, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they may have given some compromised pagers to hospitals or other external entities.

The other thing is that I believe Hezbollah doesn't consistently use uniforms. So for any adult male coming in with injuries, I imagine it's not going to be easy to get reliable information on the breakdown of the casualties.

One thing that's been striking to me is that all of the statements that I've read out of Hezbollah / Lebanon sources cited in the media all describe the devices as "belonging to Hezbollah members". Which gives me some comfort that they don't seem to be disputing that part at all.

[El Guapo]

One thing is for sure - the head of procurement for Hezbollah is definitely getting fired.

[msduncan]

It should sow enough chaos for Israel to establish a beachhead, if that's their goal, with far less organized resistance.

I believe the original plan was to detonate these devices when open war (anticipated) broke out to hamper the enemy with casualties and loss of communications. However, over the past week there were at least two incidences where the devices were coming under suspicion, and so Israel had a choice to lose the opportunity or detonate them right away. The first individual that became suspicious was killed before he could report it, and when the second incident happened, they decided to move forward.

[gbasden]

It should sow enough chaos for Israel to establish a beachhead, if that's their goal, with far less organized resistance.

I believe the original plan was to detonate these devices when open war (anticipated) broke out to hamper the enemy with casualties and loss of communications. However, over the past week there were at least two incidences where the devices were coming under suspicion, and so Israel had a choice to lose the opportunity or detonate them right away. The first individual that became suspicious was killed before he could report it, and when the second incident happened, they decided to move forward.

I wonder how someone becomes suspicious of their pager? It stopped working and they took it to get repaired?

[El Guapo]

It should sow enough chaos for Israel to establish a beachhead, if that's their goal, with far less organized resistance.

I believe the original plan was to detonate these devices when open war (anticipated) broke out to hamper the enemy with casualties and loss of communications. However, over the past week there were at least two incidences where the devices were coming under suspicion, and so Israel had a choice to lose the opportunity or detonate them right away. The first individual that became suspicious was killed before he could report it, and when the second incident happened, they decided to move forward.

I wonder how someone becomes suspicious of their pager? It stopped working and they took it to get repaired?

I'm more curious the other direction. How do you have explosives (even a small amount) in thousands of pagers (and walkie talkies apparently) and not have it be detected? Wouldn't it be discovered when someone has to replace the battery on their pager?

[hepcat]

I would imagine the explosive bit was VERY small (I've read reports the size of a pencil eraser head) and embedded within the electronics themselves. i.e. not exposed when changing a battery.

[gbasden]

I would imagine the explosive bit was VERY small (I've read reports the size of a pencil eraser head) and embedded within the electronics themselves. i.e. not exposed when changing a battery.

That was my assumption - I would think the pager would probably need to be completely disassembled to find the explosives.

[Max Peck]

Wouldn't it be discovered when someone has to replace the battery on their pager?

That probably wouldn't be a factor:

The PC-programmable and hand-programmable pager is equipped with 4 buttons with two-way scrolling, a 4 lines LCD screen, and a removable lithium battery, rechargeable via a USB-C connector, and lasting up to 85 days with 2.5 hours of charging.

[Unagi]

Young El Guapo changing the batteries in his Sony Walkman:

Spoiler:

[LawBeefaroni]

Round two:

Twenty people were killed and hundreds were wounded when walkie-talkies owned by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon on Wednesday afternoon, the second coordinated attack on the militant group involving booby-trapped devices in two days, according to Lebanese and Hezbollah officials.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/18 ... gaza-hamas

[Max Peck]

It sounds like it's on...

Israel says latest strikes in response to 'decades' of Hezbollah action

We can now bring you more now on Israel's latest strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces says it's working to “degrade” Hezbollah’s "terrorist capabilities and infrastructure".

“For decades, Hezbollah has weaponized civilian homes, dug tunnels beneath them, and used civilians as human shields — having turned southern Lebanon into a war zone,” the statement reads.

Its goal, the statement says, is to "bring security to northern Israel in order to enable the return of residents to their homes and achieve war goals".

Footage circulating on social media shows airstrikes under way in Lebanon.

As a reminder, Hezbollah is a politically-influential Shia Muslim organisation which controls the most powerful armed force in Lebanon.

It is designated a terrorist organisation by Western states, Israel, Gulf Arab countries and the Arab League. You can read more about the group in our earlier post.

The reference to civilian homes as likely targets seems ominous. Hopefully it doesn't turn out that there is a Hezbollah base in every hospital and school in southern Lebanon as well.

[El Guapo]

It sounds like it's on...

Israel says latest strikes in response to 'decades' of Hezbollah action

We can now bring you more now on Israel's latest strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces says it's working to “degrade” Hezbollah’s "terrorist capabilities and infrastructure".

“For decades, Hezbollah has weaponized civilian homes, dug tunnels beneath them, and used civilians as human shields — having turned southern Lebanon into a war zone,” the statement reads.

Its goal, the statement says, is to "bring security to northern Israel in order to enable the return of residents to their homes and achieve war goals".

Footage circulating on social media shows airstrikes under way in Lebanon.

As a reminder, Hezbollah is a politically-influential Shia Muslim organisation which controls the most powerful armed force in Lebanon.

It is designated a terrorist organisation by Western states, Israel, Gulf Arab countries and the Arab League. You can read more about the group in our earlier post.

The reference to civilian homes as likely targets seems ominous. Hopefully it doesn't turn out that there is a Hezbollah base in every hospital and school in southern Lebanon as well.

I would imagine that there are a lot of Hezbollah bases in and around hospitals, schools, mosques, etc., for the same reason that Hamas does that.

Does seem like war (beyond what already exists) between Israel and Hezbollah is likely, unfortunately.

[Max Peck]

The Hungarian firm that actually supplied the pagers is looking shady AF. It wouldn't surprise me at this point if they're actually a front for an intelligence agency <cough>Ossadmay</cough>.

How Israel Built a Modern-Day Trojan Horse: Exploding Pagers

The Israeli government did not tamper with the Hezbollah devices that exploded, defense and intelligence officials say. It manufactured them as part of an elaborate ruse.

By all appearances, B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company that was under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front, according to three intelligence officers briefed on the operation. They said at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers.

As always, it appalls me that people in the know about this sort of highly classified information keep talking to reporters.

[Max Peck]

Does seem like war (beyond what already exists) between Israel and Hezbollah is likely, unfortunately.

We're past the point of it being "likely" if Israel is now conducting airstrikes in Lebanon and getting ahead of the narrative about the unfortunate necessity of killing civilians. It's just a matter of the degree that Israel's seizing of the initiative can blunt Hezbollah's ability to reciprocate, and how badly southern Lebanon as a whole is about to get fucked up.

[El Guapo]

Does seem like war (beyond what already exists) between Israel and Hezbollah is likely, unfortunately.

We're past the point of it being "likely" if Israel is now conducting airstrikes in Lebanon and getting ahead of the narrative about the unfortunate necessity of killing civilians. It's just a matter of the degree that Israel's seizing of the initiative can blunt Hezbollah's ability to reciprocate, and how badly southern Lebanon as a whole is about to get fucked up.

Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire since October 8th, so I don't think airstrikes have changed the calculus. And to a degree war with Hezbollah has been likely for awhile (Israel can't tolerate having 100K+ civilians displaced from its north forever). The way the Israeli government talks about conflict with Hezbollah (including the statement you quoted) has certainly changed, though.

That war would be extremely difficult for everyone, including Israel (as, notwithstanding this Israeli strike, Hezbollah in general is viewed as far more stronger militarily than Hamas). And while Hezbollah has been attacking Israel off and on since October 8th, it doesn't seem like it has been all in exactly to date. So I'm hoping that some sort of explicit or implicit understanding is reached to forestall all out war. The main thing (from Israel's perspective) is that it needs to be able to tell its displaced residents in the north that they can go home.

[Max Peck]

I guess we'll see how things play out, but from where I'm sitting all signs indicate that the war is on. Neither Hezbollah nor Israel seem to be interested in deescalation, so it's just a matter of how much damage can they do to each other before one or the other runs out of steam.

I've got a bad feeling that southern Lebanon is going to be Gaza 2.0, and the ordinary people living there don't deserve that. Hopefully my pessimism won't be borne out.