Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

Here in the Jerz, school staff COVID-19 infections are dropping for the first time since October (I think), but student infections are rising significantly. Still waiting for updated data (last public release was from 1/9), but it looks pretty crazy for kids right now - and that's in a state with a mask mandate in schools. I still think a majority of the transmission is happening outside the school environment, but these kids are then coming to classrooms and in locations where they're half-assing the mask requirements, potentially spreading it to others.

But again, schools are open so that's all that matters.

[stessier]

Our schools changed the rules because they were unable to staff the classrooms. Starting on MLK day, teachers who are close contacts but asymptomatic can complete their quarantine while teaching and wearing a mask.

Makes me question if the power-that-be understand the meaning of the word "quarantine".

[Isgrimnur]

forty days

[stessier]

forty days

Common parlance adds "in isolation"

[Smoove_B]

That's what is (still) so crazy to me and it's really underscoring the problems we have here in America. The single largest outbreak I ever worked on was in a correctional facility. If we had suggested that maybe the correctional officers that were sick (norovirus was suspected) just wear a mask and come in, I'm confident we would have been fired.

But now? Now that's exactly what everyone wants because otherwise society collapses. Sending sick people that can still spread disease back into the work place is peak pandemic. It's genuinely why I am questioning my career. If my training/knowledge and advice cannot be adhered to during a pandemic, I'm supposed to now believe it will magically happen ever again?

[Jaymon]

Thats rough smoove, real rough. finding out your lifes work is just as useful as that person who installs turn signals on a BMW.

[Smoove_B]

[Smoove_B]

Two more NYC kids (0-17) have died of covid in the last three days.

Kids should not be dying to keep schools open. What have we become??

U.S. COVID update: New cases down 4% from last week, more than 3,400 new deaths

- New cases: 871,469
- Average: 766,881 (-5,350)
- States reporting: 50/50
- In hospital: 156,701 (+2,502)
- In ICU: 26,530 (+321)
- New deaths: 3,404

[Smoove_B]

And for all the OOMAs

~ 400K cases of #COVID19 reported in MA since Xmas. Given likely factor of ~5 ascertainment bias related to at-home testing and non-testing, that’s ~ 2M cases. Roughly 25-30% of the state. It’s mind boggling. And even if we are past peak there are many more cases on the way down.

[Defiant]

How did they coming up with an "5 ascertainment bias"? Is that just a guess, or do they have some reasoning behind it?

And even if we are past peak there are many more cases on the way down.

Yeah. Obviously I'm just guessing ( ) but I would guess that there would be roughly the same number of cases on the way down as there were on the way up.

[malchior]

Katherine Wu just had a piece about the post-peak trajectory of omicron in The Atlantic. The gist? There is no iron law about it and we should expect to deal with quite a bit of uncertainty about the immediate path ahead.

Just weeks into its staggering ascent in the United States, Omicron appears to maybe, maybe, be taking its leave of a few big urban centers up and down the East Coast. Documented coronavirus infections seem to be leveling off, even falling, in cities such as Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C.—a possible preview of what the country’s been waiting on tenterhooks for: the beginning of the end of the Omicron wave.

The pattern fits with what recent models predict. National case counts will hit a maximum this month, maybe a touch later. (Some think that the peak is already behind us.) It’s all a bit squishy still, but epidemiologists such as Justin Lessler of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill are “pretty confident” that the American apex is nigh. Peak could then give way to plunge, as it did in South Africa. It’s tempting, then, to imagine Omicron loosening its vise grip on the United States just as quickly as it latched on. February will be better; March, rosier still. Americans will get something like a Hot Post-Omi Spring.

A symmetrical, V-shaped rise and fall is a very nice and neat story. It is also probably wrong.

Before I stuff my foot completely inside my own mouth, let me be clear: This is not a Full-Blown Pandemic Prediction™. I personally do not know exactly what is on the other side of the Omicron peak. Neither do the experts. Actually, no one does. The back ends of curves can mirror the fronts, but they don’t have to—it depends on us and our immunity, on the virus and its hijinks, and on the frequency and intensity at which host and pathogen continue to collide. The decline could be sharp and fast, or sputtering and slow. It could start off steep, then lose steam. It could plateau—or even reverse course and tick back up.

Read: We’re not at endemicity yet

What we can say is that the higher a wave crests, the longer and more confusing the path to the bottom will be. We need to prepare for the possibility that this wave could have an uncomfortably long tail—or at least a crooked one. “I do think the decline is unlikely to be as steep as the rise,” Saad Omer, an epidemiologist at Yale, told me.

[Smoove_B]

My 8 yr old was sobbing in the bathroom today after learning he was a close contact at school. We are seeing news stories like the below. But please, do tell me more about how we are making decisions about how to hold school out of concern for the mental health of our children.

This.Is.Not.Normal.

[El Guapo]

My wife tested negative this morning after about 6 days in home quarantine. Kids also tested negative. I haven't tested today but tested negative on Tuesday. I would like to get another test for me to take today or tomorrow - hopefully that'll be negative, and if so fingers crossed we may be almost done with this episode.

[Smoove_B]

Jesus, I missed that. Sorry to hear about it but glad to know it wasn't widespread in your house? Vaccines work!

[El Guapo]

Jesus, I missed that. Sorry to hear about it but glad to know it wasn't widespread in your house? Vaccines work!

Seems like it! Since we're educated and sensible we're obviously vaccinated to the maximum extent (coincidentally my 12 YO got her booster Tuesday). I'm still borderline shocked that no one else in the house tested positive. My wife isolated in the living room since her positive test Friday other than a few masked excursions to the adjoining kitchen and the like, but even with that I have to assume that we were exposed to the virus from her for at least 1 - 2 days prior. Can't yet totally rule out that one of the rest of us will test positive (not impossible that I'm positive right now, for example), but so far so good.

And fortunately my wife's case was pretty mild as well.

Oh, and my wife's brother in Maine tested positive this week as well. I would say I'm the opposite of shocked given his level of precautions, but sounds like his case isn't terrible at this point either fortunately.

[LawBeefaroni]

My 5.5 YO has lived half his life under COVID. He wears his mask "at the ready" (on ears, below chin) around the house. Because that's normal now.

Being out of school was a disaster for him and his older sister developmentally. Being in school is dangerous and filled with pitfalls. I don't know what the answer is and I tend to be non judgemental on this one.

[msteelers]

We got a call tonight that our daycare sitter tested positive tonight for COVID. :ground:

Time for 2 weeks of constant concern for our daughter who is too young to be vaxxed! And shuffling work schedules as an added bonus on top of it.

Our 15 month old daughter now has a fever. Her temperature was normal a few hours ago and she was her typical self. Then around lunch time she started to get lethargic. We checked her temp and it was at 101.4. She also had a strange cough that I didn't like at all.

I made an appointment with the pediatrician to get her tested for covid this afternoon.

[LawBeefaroni]

We got a call tonight that our daycare sitter tested positive tonight for COVID. :ground:

Time for 2 weeks of constant concern for our daughter who is too young to be vaxxed! And shuffling work schedules as an added bonus on top of it.

Our 15 month old daughter now has a fever. Her temperature was normal a few hours ago and she was her typical self. Then around lunch time she started to get lethargic. We checked her temp and it was at 101.4. She also had a strange cough that I didn't like at all.

I made an appointment with the pediatrician to get her tested for covid this afternoon.

Oof.

Hoping for the best for her.

[Smoove_B]

I have a cousin with an infant that had similar symptoms - turned out to just be some random winter bug but their stress levels were through the roof, understandably. Hope you hear good news.

[ImLawBoy]

Messages from son's school:
6:14 am: A student in [son's classroom] has tested positive for COVID, was last in class Monday.
7:00am: [Son's Classroom] is closed today.
7:06am: Vaccinated students may attend.
7:14am: Unvaccinated students must quarantine and show negative PCR after day 7.

Son is vaccinated but the daily uncertainty is tiring.

We got a message from the twins' school late Monday (MLK Day) afternoon that someone in boy twin's class tested positive on Friday. Per CPS rules, that meant no school for him on Tuesday while teachers prepared for hybrid remote/in-person learning. Vaxxed students (with vaccination on record) who are showing no symptoms could return on Wednesday, while unvaxxed students and vaxxed students showing symptoms would be remote. Girl twin's class proceeded as normal in-person on Tuesday. Since boy twin is vaxxed, I dropped him off at school (with his sister) this morning. It should be interesting to see how many kids are in-person in his class today.

Surprisingly the overwhelming majority of my son's class was in person. That bodes well for the vaccination levels in his class.

Being out of school was a disaster for him and his older sister developmentally. Being in school is dangerous and filled with pitfalls. I don't know what the answer is and I tend to be non judgemental on this one.

While I wouldn't say it was a disaster for the twins, it was hardly ideal, and I otherwise agree with your sentiments wholeheartedly.

On the plus side, the CDC has recommended booster shots for immunocompromised kids in the 5-11 set 28 days after the second dose, so we've got an appointment set for my oldest son on the 27th to get his third shot. Unfortunately the city won't come out and do that third shot the way they did the first two, but we'll manage.

Sorry to hear, msteelers. Fingers crossed that it's just a random baby illness.

[LordMortis]

msteelers, wishing yours a speedy recovery.

[Grifman]

Interesting thread on where we are now:

“Having ~40% of the population infected by a single pathogen in the span of 8 weeks is remarkable and I can't think of an obvious modern precedent.”

[Grifman]

If we had suggested that maybe the correctional officers that were sick (norovirus was suspected) just wear a mask and come in, I'm confident we would have been fired.

But now? Now that's exactly what everyone wants because otherwise society collapses.

Sorry, but what is the issue here? If the choice is additional deaths from Covid vs. a societal collapse, I know which one I am choosing. What am I missing?

[Smoove_B]

Sorry, but what is the issue here? If the choice is additional deaths from Covid vs. a societal collapse, I know which one I am choosing. What am I missing?

It's a false choice. By framing it as the only two options (Everything open vs Society Collapses) of course everyone picks we must stay open. We have the ability to dramatically reduce spread. We have the ability to reduce deaths. But we are actively choosing everything open because suggesting anything else is unthinkable. And then has people are suffering and dying the cries to keep everything open get louder - we have to do this or else society collapses!

Meanwhile, there are soft closures of all kinds of services (both essential and non-essential) because workers are getting sick (and dying).

[malchior]

Not to mention no other advanced economy chose this path. There are hints of it elsewhere but not even close to the extent here. The very serious people said we faced societal collapse (not true) and then trumpeted how much better our economy did versus everyone else.

Also while somehow complaining inflation is bad. They link that to too much money provided to layabouts who should be out there spinning the wheel of pain! As if the fact that our supply chain is completely hosed with sick truck and train operators isn't linked to all that. It's pure madness.

[RunningMn9]

My 5.5 YO has lived half his life under COVID. He wears his mask "at the ready" (on ears, below chin) around the house. Because that's normal now.

Being out of school was a disaster for him and his older sister developmentally. Being in school is dangerous and filled with pitfalls. I don't know what the answer is and I tend to be non judgemental on this one.

Yeah, this sums up how I feel. I don’t know what the right answer is. That said - one path limits spread (with consequences); the other path promotes spread (with consequences).

I’m glad that I don’t have to make the call, and with kids that are 20 and 18, I try to understand the nightmare that parents of younger kids are going through.

[Defiant]

Sorry, but what is the issue here? If the choice is additional deaths from Covid vs. a societal collapse, I know which one I am choosing. What am I missing?

I don't see how that's the choice. The problem of "societal collapse" would have been from too many people out sick at the same time, resulting in much more extreme versions of the slowdowns we've already seen in some areas. Taking steps to slow the spread of Omicron by things like mandating n95 masking, etc, would have both reduced the number of deaths per day *and* the number of people sick at the same time, reducing the threat of societal collapse.

[Zarathud]

Blaming inflation on people not working shows how poorly informed we are on economics.

We are experiencing a supply shock after pent-up demand. They think the economy is heating up but it’s distortions, with some need to pay labor higher wages due to worse working conditions and scarcity due to COVID risks. Also higher input costs due to difficulty in the supply chain. That’s not fixable as long as China keeps closing.

[LordMortis]

My 5.5 YO has lived half his life under COVID. He wears his mask "at the ready" (on ears, below chin) around the house. Because that's normal now.

Being out of school was a disaster for him and his older sister developmentally. Being in school is dangerous and filled with pitfalls. I don't know what the answer is and I tend to be non judgemental on this one.

Yeah, this sums up how I feel. I don’t know what the right answer is. That said - one path limits spread (with consequences); the other path promotes spread (with consequences).

I’m glad that I don’t have to make the call, and with kids that are 20 and 18, I try to understand the nightmare that parents of younger kids are going through.

I try not to be judgemental but I fail. I prefer kids be in school but I also hate the idea of that point of spread and the responsibility to handle the spread we lay on the educators and their support staff. I've been sick from being around parents of the young in schools "it's going around" for years and years, so we make COVID the enemy and I don't want to be anywhere near parents of the young in school. I also remember very clearly in March of 2020 where the people dying (in Michigan) led off with teachers and prisoners/prison workers and one traveling sales guy.

[Skinypupy]

I’m glad that I don’t have to make the call, and with kids that are 20 and 18, I try to understand the nightmare that parents of younger kids are going through.

Our district transitioned back to virtual school for this week only, since case numbers are still going nuts. It's pretty much been a shitshow.

The Wonder Twins 8.7 (third grade) have a 30 minute Zoom in the morning, then 3-4 online assignments which take them maybe another hour to finish (if they're slow). They spend the rest of their day doing "educational math games" which, as far as I can tell, are just Flash RPG's using numbers. I'm in meetings all day and Mrs. Skinypupy is at work, so we just kinda have to accept that as the educational reality for this week. If it were going to be any longer, I'd start looking at ways to supplement things, but I'm just chalking it up to an easy week for them since it's only 3 days (Wed-Fri...Mon-Tues were holidays).

Little B 12.10 (7th grade) is faring a little better, with Zoom meetings for each different class period throughout the day. Not great, but definitely better than the littles.

[Grifman]

Sorry, but what is the issue here? If the choice is additional deaths from Covid vs. a societal collapse, I know which one I am choosing. What am I missing?

I don't see how that's the choice. The problem of "societal collapse" would have been from too many people out sick at the same time, resulting in much more extreme versions of the slowdowns we've already seen in some areas. Taking steps to slow the spread of Omicron by things like mandating n95 masking, etc, would have both reduced the number of deaths per day *and* the number of people sick at the same time, reducing the threat of societal collapse.

Speak to Smoove, he’s the one that painted that as the choice.

[Grifman]

Sorry, but what is the issue here? If the choice is additional deaths from Covid vs. a societal collapse, I know which one I am choosing. What am I missing?

It's a false choice. By framing it as the only two options (Everything open vs Society Collapses) of course everyone picks we must stay open. We have the ability to dramatically reduce spread. We have the ability to reduce deaths. But we are actively choosing everything open because suggesting anything else is unthinkable. And then has people are suffering and dying the cries to keep everything open get louder - we have to do this or else society collapses!

Meanwhile, there are soft closures of all kinds of services (both essential and non-essential) because workers are getting sick (and dying).

So I shouldn’t have taken you literally then? That’s not how you seemed to present it.

IMO, the problem is not only with policy makers, it’s even more so the public. The fact is that you can’t lead people any further than they are willing. Right now you have a large proportion that are unwilling to be vaccinated and/or wear masks, no matter what. And you have another larger proportion that are vaccinated and/or willing to wear masks, but at this point are tired of the other group and gave basically decided that if they want to die, so be it, “their body, their choice”. Then throw policy makers like DeSantis and other Republicans in the mix, and you have a disaster.

[msteelers]

We got a call tonight that our daycare sitter tested positive tonight for COVID. :ground:

Time for 2 weeks of constant concern for our daughter who is too young to be vaxxed! And shuffling work schedules as an added bonus on top of it.

Our 15 month old daughter now has a fever. Her temperature was normal a few hours ago and she was her typical self. Then around lunch time she started to get lethargic. We checked her temp and it was at 101.4. She also had a strange cough that I didn't like at all.

I made an appointment with the pediatrician to get her tested for covid this afternoon.

aaaaannnnndddd positive

The dr listened to her chest and checked out her throat and ears. She said everything else looked good except for the positive test. We can expect a fever for 3 days, and to treat it like we would any other cold. If she gets lethargic or stops drinking we should call the pediatrician.

I'll be stunned if the mrs and I don't come down with it too. It's not like we can shove her into a room all by herself for five days. We probably already have it. Hopefully the vaccines and boosters keep our symptoms mild.

[Smoove_B]

The public is part of it, but overwhelmingly, polling data (is it too early for polling?) has 70%+ of the general public supporting mask mandates during surges. And yet...

We are absolutely being failed by elected/appointed leadership top to bottom.

Going back to the fully open/collapse argument months ago the push to re-open corporate America - especially in NY (but NJ too) came from the highest offices. If we don't get back to work, society will collapse! Completely ignoring that many (most?) had been working all along (remotely) without a problem, but society would collapse if corporate offices didn't have bodies in seats? Well, kids have to be in schools and if your kids are in schools, there's no reason for you to be home!

The people that are repeatedly shouting the loudest for things to be open and for everyone to "return back to normal" are amazingly the same group that has the least to lose. That's what's so frustrating about all of those. People with the means to stay safe (and wealthy) are driving the bus and forcing the rest of us to make decisions about our work and family lives that put us at risk. And they're doing it by telling us "it's mild".

We have other choices other than the Drazzil 1 or 10 options (sorry bud, I had to). We could have figured out a more equitable way for kids to get remote schooling that was better suited to their needs. Or figured out a way to make the school environments safer for them. We could have figured out how to make sure restaurants, bars and small business owners didn't suffer when we needed to engage in short-term closures or restrictions on their businesses to slow spread (and maybe keep kids safer). We could have pushed for the adoption of policies that made working environments safer.

Instead we're told we need to keep everything open full throttle or society will collapse. What they really mean is that the economy will collapse, which of course will cause civil unrest. Society isn't collapsing because I'm working from home (despite what you might have heard). That we continue to prioritize the economy above all (as pointed out above - the only nation doing so) on the backs of those that are at the highest risk is inexcusable.

I think I'm rambling at this point, so I'll take a pause for the cause.

[Smoove_B]

So sorry msteelers.

[LawBeefaroni]

We got a call tonight that our daycare sitter tested positive tonight for COVID. :ground:

Time for 2 weeks of constant concern for our daughter who is too young to be vaxxed! And shuffling work schedules as an added bonus on top of it.

Our 15 month old daughter now has a fever. Her temperature was normal a few hours ago and she was her typical self. Then around lunch time she started to get lethargic. We checked her temp and it was at 101.4. She also had a strange cough that I didn't like at all.

I made an appointment with the pediatrician to get her tested for covid this afternoon.

aaaaannnnndddd positive

The dr listened to her chest and checked out her throat and ears. She said everything else looked good except for the positive test. We can expect a fever for 3 days, and to treat it like we would any other cold. If she gets lethargic or stops drinking we should call the pediatrician.

I'll be stunned if the mrs and I don't come down with it too. It's not like we can shove her into a room all by herself for five days. We probably already have it. Hopefully the vaccines and boosters keep our symptoms mild.

Oh man. Best of luck and here's to mild symptoms.


You have to gauge your own situation but I'd recommend testing for you and the Mrs. Possibly one parent and the infant isolate to ensure at least the other parent avoids illness and symptoms. As difficult as isolating can be, if everyone gets sick at the same time things can get even more difficult.

[msteelers]

So sorry msteelers.

Thanks. We did what we could to try to minimize her exposure, but there was only so much we could do. I've got a very defeatist / it-is-what-it-is attitude about it all, because the alternative is impotent rage.

[stessier]

So sorry msteelers.

Thanks. We did what we could to try to minimize her exposure, but there was only so much we could do. I've got a very defeatist / it-is-what-it-is attitude about it all, because the alternative is impotent rage.

Don't know if it helps, but you are not alone in those feelings. I hope everyone is okay.

[msteelers]

You have to gauge your own situation but I'd recommend testing for you and the Mrs. Possibly one parent and the infant isolate to ensure at least the other parent avoids illness and symptoms. As difficult as isolating can be, if everyone gets sick at the same time things can get even more difficult.

That's a good point and one I hadn't really thought of... I'll have to talk with the mrs and see if it's even possible.

I work from home, and my wife has already taken the next few days off of work. So the plan right now is to test on Sunday or Monday before she would have to go back to work on Tuesday. And if symptoms start to hit I think we would take the test sooner. My wife says she feels "off" but no obvious symptoms. I'm feeling ok so far.

[Grifman]

You have to gauge your own situation but I'd recommend testing for you and the Mrs. Possibly one parent and the infant isolate to ensure at least the other parent avoids illness and symptoms. As difficult as isolating can be, if everyone gets sick at the same time things can get even more difficult.

That's a good point and one I hadn't really thought of... I'll have to talk with the mrs and see if it's even possible.

I work from home, and my wife has already taken the next few days off of work. So the plan right now is to test on Sunday or Monday before she would have to go back to work on Tuesday. And if symptoms start to hit I think we would take the test sooner. My wife says she feels "off" but no obvious symptoms. I'm feeling ok so far.

Best wishes to you and your family.