Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Zaxxon]

With yesterday's CDC community level update, my local county is officially back to Low, along with the surrounding counties. Whee!

(FWIW, hospitalizations--which I guess are the only objective metric left since testing/reporting are so botched--are down quite a bit here the past two weeks.)

[Smoove_B]

(FWIW, hospitalizations--which I guess are the only objective metric left since testing/reporting are so botched--are down quite a bit here the past two weeks.)

Yes, but that lagging element is still the problem. It's good that hospitalizations are down in your area, but that is a snapshot then from 4+ weeks ago. The hospitalization data from the second week and beyond in January will tell you what's happening now. If only there was some other way to stay on top of this. I guess we'll never know.

I really still don't know what to expect anymore. This weekend will kick off whatever is about to happen - that's my only guess.

[Zaxxon]

(FWIW, hospitalizations--which I guess are the only objective metric left since testing/reporting are so botched--are down quite a bit here the past two weeks.)

Yes, but that lagging element is still the problem. It's good that hospitalizations are down in your area, but that is a snapshot then from 4+ weeks ago. The hospitalization data from the second week and beyond in January will tell you what's happening now. If only there was some other way to stay on top of this. I guess we'll never know.

I really still don't know what to expect anymore. This weekend will kick off whatever is about to happen - that's my only guess.

I hear you--I'm just saying that at least for the reporting period, it's actual good news here. I wasn't expecting that in Decemberr.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, it's better here than I expected as well, tbh. I really don't think it's putting as many in hospitals as it was a year ago (which is clearly good). Instead, I think it's just spreading and continuing to raise the floor for the number of people suffering some type of post-infection complications.

[coopasonic]

I am a coach for new software engineers at work that are generally fresh out of school. We talk about work stuff but also adulting stuff. He's telling me that he's hearing about the China news and more of his friends are getting COVID now and how he thought it was supposed to be over. He really seemed genuinely surprised. I gave him my best Smoove impression about how not over it is and how the messaging has been misleading. I guess not everyone has a Smoove in their life, which is a shame.

[Blackhawk]

I guess not everyone has a Smoove in their life, which is a shame.

A few days ago I made some meat-based food, then stored the leftovers. As I did so, I reflected on how many things I do or view differently now because of OO, and Smoove was a standout (RM9 as well.) I had never owned a meat thermometer before, for instance, and had always learned to let cooked food cool on the counter before putting it in the fridge. And all of that has been passed on to my kids as well.

I've said it before: Smoove's community health service has made a big difference - just not in the community he expected.

[RunningMn9]

I can confirm that having a Smoove is very useful, albeit terrifying considering that he won’t stop texting my wife that she might have cancer.

[LordMortis]

Now at a 25 year low, life expectancy in the US continues to fall. Covid persists as the 3rd leading cause of death and increasing ~20% over 2020

Hey they are just making it easier for people to retire. If you don't live as long you don't need the same level of resources. You're welcome!

That's my philosophy.

[Isgrimnur]

Everyone should have a Smoove and the wisdom to listen to them. Alas, we are but a few that are so blessed.

[Freyland]

I guess not everyone has a Smoove in their life, which is a shame.

A few days ago I made some meat-based food, then stored the leftovers. As I did so, I reflected on how many things I do or view differently now because of OO, and Smoove was a standout (RM9 as well.) I had never owned a meat thermometer before, for instance, and had always learned to let cooked food cool on the counter before putting it in the fridge. And all of that has been passed on to my kids as well.

Wait, I thought I remembered that we *were* supposed to let it cool before putting it in the fridge.... am I remembering wrong, Smoove?

[Isgrimnur]

Washinton State Department of Health

Hot food can be placed in the refrigerator. Large amounts of food should be divided into small portions and put in shallow containers for quicker cooling in the refrigerator. Perishable foods should be put in a refrigerator that is 40 degrees or below within 2 hours of preparation. If you leave food out to cool and forget about it after 2 hours, throw it away.

[Smoove_B]

Awww, y'all are going to make me blush. Much appreciated. Educate the community you have!

I can confirm that having a Smoove is very useful, albeit terrifying considering that he won’t stop texting my wife that she might have cancer.

To be clear, I don't think it's cancer anymore, but initially we had to rule that out. We're of an age...

Wait, I thought I remembered that we *were* supposed to let it cool before putting it in the fridge.... am I remembering wrong, Smoove?

Yeah, as Isg linked:

Hot food can be placed in the refrigerator. Large amounts of food should be divided into small portions and put in shallow containers for quicker cooling in the refrigerator. Perishable foods should be put in a refrigerator that is 40 degrees or below within 2 hours of preparation. If you leave food out to cool and forget about it after 2 hours, throw it away. Bacteria can grow rapidly on food left out at room temperature for more than 2 hours. If food is left out in a room our outdoors where the temperature is 90 degrees F or hotter, food should be refrigerated or discarded within just 1 hour.

Here I'd disagree a bit with the idea of putting hot foods in a home refrigerator. They're really not designed to take hot foods down to safer temps like a commercial refrigerator is, and even for commercial refrigerators there are limits. The cardinal sin is partially mentioned above - deep storage containers and tight seals. I've seen situations where a restaurant has made something on a Sunday night, put it in a deep plastic container with a plastic wrap seal and when I go to temp it, the center is somewhere around 60 degrees after 12+ hours.

Better are metal or ceramic containers (because they conduct cool air) and letting the dish "steam off" for a bit before storage (~15 minutes) is solid. Better is to do what that link says - shallow containers (especially for soups, casseroles, meat sauces, etc... rather than deep (larger than 3-4") storage containers. When I make something like chili, I will put it into a metal or ceramic bowl and place that into an ice bath in my sink. I'll stir the chili to help it cool, but the ice bath will get it down from the 165+ degree range to the 60 degree range after it's been prepared, served and then out on the counter during dinner. If it's not being hot held in a crock pot, gotta cool it down and get it stored.

I recognize that it's not normal to think like this, but here we are. I assure you, I'm not just a lunatic about vaccinations and masking. I know how to ruin all sorts of fun things.

[Zaxxon]

I know how to ruin all sorts of fun things.

Now do the five-second rule.

[Smoove_B]

I know how to ruin all sorts of fun things.

Now do the five-second rule.

One of my former instructors in college is behind the most recent peer reviewed study that disproved the 5 second rule.

“The five-second rule is a significant oversimplification of what actually happens when bacteria transfer from a surface to food,” Schaffner said.
“Bacteria can contaminate instantaneously.”

EDIT for clarity

[Zaxxon]

I knew you'd be up for it.

[Alefroth]

Do people actually think the 5 second rule is a real thing and not just a funny thing to say when you drop food?

[Smoove_B]

Do people actually think the 5 second rule is a real thing and not just a funny thing to say when you drop food?

Yes. But I've only really cared when talking about it to restaurant staff.

[Kraken]

Awww, y'all are going to make me blush. Much appreciated. Educate the community you have!

"According to a friend of mine who's a public health official..." gives me unearned credibility. Especially if I add "...in charge of New Jersey" just for the flourish.

[Smoove_B]

wE sHoUlD bE cOnCeRnEd aBoUt cHiNa, as we have a new dominant strain in the NE:

According to a World Health Organization statement issued in October, XBB is a recombinant of two previous omicron sublineages. Based on information available at that time, the WHO said early evidence suggested XBB infections were not substantially more severe than other subvariants.

"There is, however, early evidence pointing at a higher reinfection risk, as compared to other circulating Omicron sublineages," the WHO wrote.

Nationwide, other strains remain dominant but the percentage of cases XBB variant has grown significantly. The CDC reports that XBB is responsible for 18.3% of cases in the week ending on Dec. 24, up from 4.2% during the week ending on Dec. 3.

To be clear, we should be monitoring everything, but just in (once again) looking at the numbers being reported in my own state and nationwide:



U.S. COVID update:

- New cases: 131,915
- Average: 61,131 (-6,178)
- States reporting: 28/50
- In hospital: 41,515 (+4,898)
- In ICU: 5,075 (+483)
- New deaths: 856
- Average: 331 (-28)

Just over half the states reporting and there's still 130K new cases. Now imagine if all states were accurately reporting timely data *and* encouraging collection. Anyone on social media or in the news that is currently speaking about how awesome our new policy against Chinese air travelers is beyond deluded.

[Zaxxon]

Thankfully, cases and deaths are down, so we good.

[Defiant]

Is that update daily or weekly?

[malchior]

The averages are weekly. The other numbers are daily subject to the vagaries of reporting delays. So if you just normalize it to 50 states we're talking about 1500/day deaths right now.

[Max Peck]

The Johns Hopkins dashboard currently gives a moving 28-day total of 1,772,319 cases and 10,818 deaths for the US, so that would average to about 63k cases and 380 deaths per day over the last 4 weeks.

[Smoove_B]

Ooh, so we do have the capacity to learn:

As COVID-19 infections surge in China, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering sampling wastewater taken from international aircraft to track any emerging new variants, the agency told Reuters.

Such a policy would offer a better solution to tracking the virus and slowing its entry into the United States than new travel restrictions announced this week by the U.S. and other countries, which require mandatory negative COVID tests for travelers from China, three infectious disease experts told Reuters.

Travel restrictions, such as mandatory testing, have so far failed to significantly curb the spread of COVID and function largely as optics, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota.

[Isgrimnur]

You do not get off the plane until you have peed.

[Kraken]

The Johns Hopkins dashboard currently gives a moving 28-day total of 1,772,319 cases and 10,818 deaths for the US, so that would average to about 63k cases and 380 deaths per day over the last 4 weeks.

We've decided that we can ignore 300 deaths a day. I wonder how much higher that would have to get before we become alarmed enough to react.

[malchior]

The real "fun" is when you scan OECD data and excess deaths are still running around 5-6K/week in the United States. That's more inclusive than COVID but we're not in a good place.

[Smoove_B]

We've decided that we can ignore 300 deaths a day. I wonder how much higher that would have to get before we become alarmed enough to react.

We hit ~4K a day in January of 2022 and I don't think people cared. So...more than that. These next few weeks are going to be interesting. Mask up folks.

[Smoove_B]

Also, expect to see more of these stories in 2023 as we collectively DGAF:

When Jamie Waddell tested positive for COVID-19 for the first time in August, she was much sicker than she expected. After 10 days, she felt better and returned to school and work. But a few weeks later, she noticed she struggled to walk down the street without feeling faint. Soon, she couldn’t talk without getting winded. By Labor Day, she was so sick that she visited the emergency room, where she learned she had sepsis, pneumonia and heart failure.

“Based on the fact that I kept feeling worse and worse, I’m guessing my heart function had probably been declining over that whole week, and by the time I got to the ER, I was septic,” Waddell, 36, a nurse from Springfield, Illinois, tells TODAY.com. “They did an echocardiogram. My heart function was really low. I was in heart failure.

Why did this happen to her? Maybe some day we'll figure it out.

[Kraken]

The US labor force is 5 million workers short of where it should be according to pre-pandemic trends. Roughly 2 million of those missing workers are boomers who retired earlier than we would have done, partly out of health fears and partly because our household balance sheets look better than they did before the pandemic. Most of the remaining 3 million either died of covid or are suffering from long-covid disabilities. Since we've decided not to hire the millions of immigrants who would like to fill that gap, maybe we should re-badge covid deaths as "workforce reductions."

[Default]

"rendered redundant" as the Brits would say.

[Smoove_B]

For my MA friends:

Boston-area wastewater levels are where they were in early Jan and rising fast. MA COVID hospitalizations are at highest since winter Omicron wave, with > 100 COVID deaths last week for the first time in a long time. Little public acknowledgment. We have become comfortably numb.

guitar solo

[LawBeefaroni]

Why did this happen to her? Maybe some day we'll figure it out.

"Her" means not me or you or us. So it's all good.

[Smoove_B]

Kind of a weird announcement from the CDC today.

New data show the #COVID19 variant #XBB.1.5 is projected to make up 40.5% of COVID-19 cases nationally. See thread below for what we currently know and on what you can do to protect yourself.

Not just in the announcement of the variant information (I can't recall the CDC really sharing anything in the last 6 months about variants - like when BA.5 was circulating during the summer), but this latter part:

Do your part to help protect yourself, your community, & our hospitals: 
-Stay up to date on #COVID19 vaccines 
-Test before going to large gatherings 
-Wear a mask if you're in an area w/ high community transmission or if you choose 

They're now back to referencing the Community Transmission map (the one that's all red) vs the one they've been pushing forever now, the Community Level map (that's mostly happy green). That's....different.

[Kraken]

Boston Public Schools decided that they're going to "encourage" mask wearing for a couple of weeks after the break ends. No mandate, but they'll provide free masks for students who wish to comply.

[Smoove_B]

Two of the largest school districts in my state are mandating masks for students for the first ~2 weeks following a return after the new year; it makes sense.

For those interested in more data sources, I present Biobot. Note what's happening:



This is all the data, nationwide last updated 12/29/2022. The dark blue line (on top) is showing the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in our wastewater. The light blue line that is (1) nearly flat) and (2) orders of magnitude lower is showing our COVID-19 testing (people) data.

So weird how the two data sources are so divergent, right? And if you go back in time, they've been divergent for a while - seemingly since we came out of the Omicron winter of 21/22, starting around March of this year. I wonder if there's historical news items demonstrating how testing was being cut off back in the spring and into the summer of this year? I guess we'll never know.

If you also look at when we were at our historical worst (January 2022), the testing data is lower than the wastewater data likely because our systems were overwhelmed; it was not possible to test any more people. We're no where near being overwhelmed with testing now - we're just not doing it.

[Smoove_B]

What a way to head into 2023

BREAKING: Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 rises to 45,279, the highest since February

[Jolor]

Good news from Ontario. Asshole Premier declares is over, not only in Ontario, but around the world. https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/we-are-done- ... -1.5782355

[Sudy]

Looks like that article's from last year? But I have no doubt covid will be handled just as recklessly this year.

[LordMortis]

Looks like that article's from last year? But I have no doubt covid will be handled just as recklessly this year.

He posts on January 2nd.

(Also I see it is from February, but still made me chuckle)