Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Isgrimnur]

WHO declares end to COVID global health emergency

The World Health Organization ended the global emergency status for COVID-19 on Friday more than three years after its original declaration, and said countries should now manage the virus that killed more than 6.9 million people along with other infectious diseases.

The global health agency's Emergency Committee met on Thursday and recommended the UN organization declare an end to the coronavirus crisis as a "public health emergency of international concern" - its highest level of alert - which has been in place since Jan. 30, 2020.

[Zaxxon]

In other words, we're actually, really, truly Cave Johnsoning this thing.

[Smoove_B]

Just saw that the CDC director (Walensky) just resigned. Wow.

EDIT: link

[Isgrimnur]

In other words, we're actually, really, truly Cave Johnsoning this thing.

We're done here.

[Pyperkub]

It's a good news/bad news kind of article:

Covid-19 was the fourth leading cause of death in the United States in 2022, according to provisional data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

It was the third leading cause of death in the first two years of the pandemic, but there were about half as many deaths from it in 2022 as there were the year before...

... Covid-19 death rates declined for all racial and ethnic groups but remained highest among American Indian and Black people. Overall death rates were highest for these groups, too.

Unintentional injuries moved back to the third leading cause of death, as drug overdoses reached record levels.

Heart disease and cancer remained the top two leading causes of death, and rates for both increased in 2022. Nearly 700,000 people died from heart disease, and about 608,000 people died from cancer.

[LordMortis]

So this was the finish line, huh? This and the debt ceiling are the only news today.

[Smoove_B]

Definitely the story to post at 8pm on a Friday night:

In March, the White House reached out to about a dozen Covid-19 experts who are closely following the evolution of the coronavirus to ask a simple question: What did they think were the chances of the world seeing a highly mutated variant, akin to Omicron, within the next two years?

The experts came up with a surprisingly narrow range of probabilities, between 5% and 30%, according to Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. He said the data was shared with him on the phone after he gave his own estimate of 15% to 20%.

...

One, Dr. Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, did some very simple modeling based on the fact that there’s been one Omicron-level shift in the virus in about 3½ years of transmission. That happened in November 2021, when the Omicron variant was first detected in the US.

Carrying that forward in time, he estimated that the risk of another such event within the next two years was higher, about 40% between now and May 4, 2025, he told CNN.

“40% feels intuitively high. The main reason that 40% number could be off is if in today’s world Omicron-like events are now much less likely than in the world of 2020-2021. However, I don’t see an obvious reason for this to be the case,” Bedford wrote in an email, noting that scientists are tracking highly mutated cryptic lineages in people who have been infected for long periods of time.

I guess we'll see. That said, if it happens I already know what we're going to do.

[Isgrimnur]

I'm more worried about highly mutated cryptid lineages.

[hitbyambulance]

Just saw that the CDC director (Walensky) just resigned. Wow.

EDIT: link

"The announcement of her departure comes a few days after a 39-year-old CDC employee, Amy St. Pierre, was shot and killed Wednesday in a shooting in midtown Atlanta, where the CDC is located."

[Smoove_B]

How is it May of 2023 and schools are still closing for "deep cleaning"?

Northampton County High School in North Carolina will dismiss students and staff early Thursday due to a high number of COVID-19 cases.

The district issued a social media post at 10:30 a.m., Thursday, saying the high school would be dismissing at noon “in order to give the school a thorough cleaning and sanitation.”

The school district asked parents to monitor their children for cold or flu-like symptoms.

This is madness.

[RunningMn9]

Got to appear like you are doing something, but something that doesn’t affect freedumbs.

[ImLawBoy]

If they're going to keep the school closed for a few days for the "deep cleaning" it might just be a cover story to get people to isolate for a while. If they're all going back the next day after an afternoon of "deep cleaning", then it's just a waste of half a day.

[Smoove_B]

I guess I'm just shocked (and I probably shouldn't be) that the parents and guardians for kids in that school district think so little of public health that they are just like, "Oh yeah, that's totally how you deal with COVID-19, just get some of those scrubbing bubbles and it's gone."

Might be time to start my healing and protective crystals business.

[stessier]

You may overestimate how much the general public actually knows about COVID.

[Zaxxon]

You may overestimate how much the general public actually knows about COVID.

Deep cleaning feels like a good idea, so therefore it is a good idea. America 101.

[Smoove_B]

You may overestimate how much the general public actually knows about COVID.

Deep cleaning feels like a good idea, so therefore it is a good idea. America 101.

I'm guess I'm still astounded that head-lice still sets off all kinds of protocols that cannot be negotiated, but COVID-19? Nah - we're good. Granted, deep "cleaning" is the (general) solution for head lice, so maybe that's why - it's a perfect example of the treatment matching expectations for resolution. But I'm guessing parents joke about sending kids to school with COVID-19 at this point. Those same parents would disembowel someone that joked about sending a kid in with head lice.

[Zaxxon]

But I'm guessing parents joke about sending kids to school with COVID-19 at this point.

Can confirm that many parents in my kids' school wouldn't even test for COVID anymore. It's just a cold.

[stessier]

But I'm guessing parents joke about sending kids to school with COVID-19 at this point.

Can confirm that many parents in my kids' school wouldn't even test for COVID anymore. It's just a cold.

Yeah - when I was reading Smoove's post, I expected the surprise to be that NC could even tell they had a COVID outbreak. No one has to say anything in SC, so I'm not sure how we'd find out.

[Isgrimnur]

You may overestimate how much the general public actually knows about COVID.

Deep cleaning feels like a good idea, so therefore it is a good idea. America 101.

I'm guess I'm still astounded that head-lice still sets off all kinds of protocols that cannot be negotiated, but COVID-19? Nah - we're good. Granted, deep "cleaning" is the (general) solution for head lice, so maybe that's why - it's a perfect example of the treatment matching expectations for resolution. But I'm guessing parents joke about sending kids to school with COVID-19 at this point. Those same parents would disembowel someone that joked about sending a kid in with head lice.

You can see lice.

[Smoove_B]

You can see lice.

Mostly - not to get too nit-picky.

[Unagi]

You can see lice.

Mostly - not to get too nit-picky.

[Isgrimnur]

[Pyperkub]

I guess I'm just shocked (and I probably shouldn't be) that the parents and guardians for kids in that school district think so little of public health that they are just like, "Oh yeah, that's totally how you deal with COVID-19, just get some of those scrubbing bubbles and it's gone."

Might be time to start my healing and protective crystals business.

The only logical explanation (other than the head fake isolation), is that deep cleaning would involve serious HVAC cleaning to get ventilation scrubbed and up to par.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

[Unagi]

Maybe the school knows full well that there is no 'deep clean' solution, but it's the only thing they can do/say in their neck of the woods that will keep the sick kids out of school for a few days and give them a chance to rebound.

excuses

Or they are idiots.

[Blackhawk]

I'm glad you beat me to it - I would have gone with Lords of Acid and disturbed everyone.

[Isgrimnur]

Honestly, that one disturbs me.

[RunningMn9]

I guess I'm just shocked (and I probably shouldn't be) that the parents and guardians for kids in that school district think so little of public health that they are just like, "Oh yeah, that's totally how you deal with COVID-19, just get some of those scrubbing bubbles and it's gone."

Might be time to start my healing and protective crystals business.

You are giving them too much credit for thinking. Not a single one of those parents is thinking so little of public health that they are thinking that this is how you deal with COVID. Half of them don’t care at all, and the other half are pissed at losing day care.

[Smoove_B]

[RunningMn9]

It's time to accept that Americans don't care.

[Smoove_B]

An excellent summary of where we're at:

I was asked by a friend what the current state of #COVID19 is, in practical terms. So I'll add to this thread slowly over time.

First off, every country will get 3 or 4 waves a year. It never was, and won't become any time soon, a seasonal virus. People still dying from #COVID19, everywhere at least ten times the usual death-toll from the flu. As-of-the-moment average death-toll from covid is estimated at 140 to 190 a day for the USA; keep in mind that's an under-estimate (b/c under-reporting).

Despite covid deaths being at very least 10x what's normal for flu in comparison (way over 10x for the USA just from flu alone), hospitalizations aren't so big at most times. However, one major worry is #LongCovid, in up to 10% (!) of covid-infections. Keep in mind covid re-infections, each with #LongCovid risk. Next major worry is concomitant or subsequent infections, e.g. Strep A (covid stuffs up the immune system awhile). Warning: the article below repeats the sheerly wrong myth of "#ImmunityDebt.

Next, risk of mental effects. Maybe it comes under #LongCovid, but psychiatric illness is a known possible side-effect after some viral infections. Some still hold that the Spanish Flu, 1918~1921, caused encephalitis lethargica.

The article below, now over a year old, still holds true. We're still in the middle of the covid pandemic, not at its end. Very nasty surprises are still a big possibility for the future, which is the main point here.

Yes, deaths & hospitalizations much lower than in April~December 2020, owing to vaccinations. Don't rely on covid re-infections for 'vaccination'; you run a risk every time. Make sure to get a booster at least once a year. Covid mutates, covid respawns.

Covid (SARS 2) has mutated so much since March 2020 some argue the newest should be called SARS 3. Yes, multivalent vaccines against all covid strains already exist, & nasal vaccines, except governments are unwilling to financially help mass-roll-outs, so they don't get done. This old November 2020 thread of mine has aged really well. Don't believe or trust anyone who tries telling you the myth that viruses mutate to become less lethal; often they don't, sometimes they mutate to become more lethal.

Where are we now? Societies could do far more against #covid19 (e.g. face-mask mandates in healthcare, HEPA filters & CO2 gauges in all public indoors-spaces, new vaccines), but they refuse to; money! Muh freedumb! We simply can't predict what will happen, what comes next.

I'd respectfully disagree with the closing argument. I'm confident over what' will happen (just not when) and how we'll respond.

[Smoove_B]

Can't do better than The Onion:

Picking up thousands of incapacitated Americans by their wrists and ankles and tossing them down to the sidewalks below, Covid-19 patients were reportedly flung out of hospital windows across the country Thursday as the public emergency officially ended. “Well, thank God that’s over,” said ICU head nurse Mikayla Hecht, who ripped a breathing tube out of an elderly patient’s mouth and hoisted the man onto her shoulder as she carried him toward the open window, making a mental note to chuck all of the ventilators out the window for good measure. “They were taking up the entire sixth floor, so that should clear up a lot of space. I was worried we were going to be stuck dealing with this bullshit forever, but at least it’s over now. Goodbye and good riddance!” At press time, Hecht dusted off her hands and called out, “Come back when you have a real disease!” before slamming the window shut.

[hepcat]

I have never had Covid....or have I had it and just not known it? I find it hard to believe that I've not had it, to be honest.

[hitbyambulance]

i've also not had it - same with my parents. (sibling was not so lucky, but he has kids and lives in Texas)

[stessier]

My wife had it and was immediately quarantined. Neither of my kids nor myself have ever tested positive - so maybe had it asymptomatically (although I would have expected my wife to be the canary in the coal mine for that situation).

[hepcat]

i've also not had it - same with my parents. (sibling was not so lucky, but he has kids and lives in Texas)

Perhaps you and I are part of a genetically perfect offshoot of humanity that is immune to disease?

[ImLawBoy]

Twins each had it once, but the rest of us (me, wife, oldest kid) haven't had it (or haven't tested positive for it anyway).

[Max Peck]

For the last couple of weeks, the local news has been touting the lower COVID wastewater signature. Luckily that can in no way be attributed to the spring runoff or the massive amount of rain we had over the last few days of April.

[Pyperkub]

I have never had Covid....or have I had it and just not known it? I find it hard to believe that I've not had it, to be honest.

I don't know either. The one time I *know* I was exposed was over the Christmas/New Year's Holidays last year, when Omicron was exploding and there were no tests to be found anywhere. I was fully vaxxed and got kind of tired/achy, but that happens a lot with my ears/sinuses.

[Smoove_B]

In case anyone was wondering how we were going to be monitoring for COVID-19 once the emergency declaration expired (yesterday), I have good news for you - everything is green again!

The @CDCgov has rolled out its new post-emergency COVID-19 Data Tracker

Among changes, COVID now visualized as % of deaths via @NCHStats data from around country

Most states this past week are between "minimal" to "low" COVID-19 deaths

In addition:

Other changes include swapping out "COVID-19 Community Levels" for "Hospital Admission Levels"

Other guidance (e.g. when to mask) are virtually same as it was before

[Zaxxon]

Stay away from Arizona, amirite?