Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Isgrimnur]

Unrelated, I also just saw that Chicago just started a program (today?) that allows anyone over the age of 5 to be vaccinated at home via mobile vaccinators. That's good stuff.

[ImLawBoy]

Unrelated, I also just saw that Chicago just started a program (today?) that allows anyone over the age of 5 to be vaccinated at home via mobile vaccinators. That's good stuff.

Oooh! I'll have to look at that for when my oldest is done with the post-surgery period and can actually get his vaccine. Depending on how it's done, it might be a lot easier than getting him out of the house (although the wheelchair lift might be installed by that time, making things a bit easier).

[Smoove_B]

Here you go:

In-home vaccination is available to all Chicago households. Beginning November 15, anyone age 5 and up is eligible to receive a vaccine. Up to 10 people can be vaccinated at a time, so Chicagoans can invite family, friends, or neighbors to their home to be vaccinated together.

As a bonus:

Each person who receives their primary vaccine doses through the City's At Home program is eligible to receive a $100 visa gift card, including children age 5-11. Gift cards are not offered for booster dose appointments.

Sadly, I don't think it involves a IT-O, if that was a requirement.

[LawBeefaroni]

Here you go:

In-home vaccination is available to all Chicago households. Beginning November 15, anyone age 5 and up is eligible to receive a vaccine. Up to 10 people can be vaccinated at a time, so Chicagoans can invite family, friends, or neighbors to their home to be vaccinated together.

As a bonus:

Each person who receives their primary vaccine doses through the City's At Home program is eligible to receive a $100 visa gift card, including children age 5-11. Gift cards are not offered for booster dose appointments.

Sadly, I don't think it involves a IT-O, if that was a requirement.

That program has been in place for at least 4 months, including the $100 gift cards. They just expanded it to 5-11, which is probably why it had the news blurb.

I think it's been doing pretty well.

[Smoove_B]

I'd thought Chicago had a program in place already and maybe that's why it bubbled up into my feed - the expansion to 5+ year olds. I've said it before, if I was younger or I knew Chicago was going to be at the forefront of public health back in the early 2000s, I might have moved. It doesn't surprise me at all to see this kind of program knowing all the other things Chicago has been doing for public health in the last decade+. Thanks Obama!

Here's an interesting data point on the state of VT and how things are looking.

Vermont provides an interesting example on the initial effectiveness of boosters in a highly vaccinated population. While case rates for younger ages have increased, case rates for ages 65+ (55% of whom have had a booster) have decreased and ICU numbers have been flat.

Once again, we're doing a good job of protecting highest risk folks (they're getting the message), but younger people (all under the age of 65) are feeling the brunt of the new surge.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Had by far my riskiest activity last night: went to the UNC vs. College of Charleston basketball game. Was a packed arena and while ostensibly the rules stated everyone not eating or drinking needed to wear a mask, I would put actual mask wearing at ~ 5%. I had my N95 on tight the whole time, so hopefully that mitigating at least some of the risk. Guess I'll find out if it was effective in 5 - 10 days!

[Smoove_B]

Perspective from the man himself:

Covid-19 cases in the U.S. need to fall "well below 10,000" per day for the country to achieve some semblance of pre-pandemic life, White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated Tuesday.

The U.S. reported an average of nearly 83,500 new Covid cases every day over the last week, a 14% increase from the week before, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. Fauci said in an interview at the 2021 STAT Summit that Covid cases may need to fall as low as 3,300 per day for the nation to gain control over the virus.

Daily infections in the U.S. haven't been below 10,000 since March 2020.

"I think if we can get well below 10,000, I think that would be a level that I think would be acceptable to us to get back to a degree of normality," Fauci said. "But again, I have to warn the listeners, these are not definitive statements — these are just estimates."

How's it looking:

Certain regions across the U.S. are driving up infections more than others, according to Hopkins data. The weekly average of daily new cases per capita rose in the Midwest and Northeast by 31% and 19%, respectively, as of Monday, compared with a 12% increase in the South and an 8% increase in the West.

[Smoove_B]

BREAKING: U.S. reports nearly 115,000 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since October 12

[Smoove_B]

Like...when your risk scale is literally off the charts, maybe it's time to try something new in terms of controlling the virus?

When what you originally defined on your color scale as high risk (red) is not high enough anymore. Ann Arbor is on the red island in a rising sea of purple. Looks like Thanksgiving, with lots of indoor unmasked family gatherings/meals, will be very bad.

[Grifman]

I expect we will see a surge of deaths among the unvaccinated during the holidays. Sadly, these people cannot be helped.

[Zarathud]

Holiday stress kills people every year.

[Max Peck]

It's just part of God's plan. What can you really do?

The pastor of a Nova Scotia church that hosted an event linked to a COVID-19 spike and three deaths told his parishioners this week that what happened is "unfortunate," but it is all part of God's plan.

Robert Smith, the pastor of Gospel Light Baptist Church in Amherst, N.S., held his first in-person service in three weeks on Sunday and livestreamed video of his sermon on Facebook. The video was later taken down.

At the end of October, Smith's church hosted a multi-day gathering of faith groups from across the province. Public health officials have said more than 100 people attended and were not asked to show proof of vaccination — a violation of public health orders.

"I followed what God wanted us to do," Smith said from the pulpit. "We had a great week of meetings … a young lady got saved."

Three people have died in the past week of COVID-19 — one at a group home in Amherst and two at a long-term care home in Pugwash, N.S. — and the province has said those cases trace back to the Gospel Light event.

Community spread in Nova Scotia's northern and western health zones is "primarily associated" with that event, according to the province.

[LordMortis]

Like...when your risk scale is literally off the charts, maybe it's time to try something new in terms of controlling the virus?

When what you originally defined on your color scale as high risk (red) is not high enough anymore. Ann Arbor is on the red island in a rising sea of purple. Looks like Thanksgiving, with lots of indoor unmasked family gatherings/meals, will be very bad.

Post Halloween surge. Not like it wasn't predictable.

[LawBeefaroni]

We already cancelled our annual trip to A2 for family Thanksgiving but damn, that looks ugly.

[Smoove_B]

Hey NJ, how's it going?

The seven-day average for new positive tests increased Thursday to 1,529 — up 31% from a week ago and 20% from a month ago. It’s also the first time since Sept. 30 that more than 2,000 cases have been reported.

The state’s transmission rate was not updated as of Thursday morning. The rate increased Wednesday to 1.11 from 1.08 on Tuesday. Any transmission rate above 1 indicates that each infected person is passing the virus to at least one other person.

Of note:

Another county was listed as having “high” rates of coronavirus transmission Thursday, bringing the total of New Jersey’s 21 counties with that designation to 14, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC is recommending that all people in the high and substantial transmission counties wear masks for indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status.

The CDC recommends it, but NJ still isn't requiring anything. Freedom.

Feeling more confident that school interruptions are coming. My wife's employer is throwing a Thanksgiving party next week and inviting everyone in. Workers are mandated to return the first week of December. No vaccination requirement.

[El Guapo]

Feeling more confident that school interruptions are coming. My wife's employer is throwing a Thanksgiving party next week and inviting everyone in. Workers are mandated to return the first week of December. No vaccination requirement.

What's really crazy is that I kind of expect the Democrats to pay a bigger price for closing down schools and imposing other restrictions, than Republicans will pay for just letting people die.

[Octavious]

Other people dying doesn't impact them. Closing the schools totally does. So ya we're a country of selfish assholes. I just didn't realize it was this bad. Look at how many people died in Florida over the summer. Nobody seems outraged.. In fact I still see articles saying how well that worked out not shutting things down. They are 100% okay with people dying if they don't have to go an inch out of their own comfort zone.

[Isgrimnur]

Other people dying where they can’t see them doesn’t bother them. The Masque of the Red Death represents humanity just as well today as when it was written.

[Smoove_B]

New York state reports 8,115 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April

[Remus West]

I expect we will see a surge of deaths among the unvaccinated during the holidays. Sadly, these people cannot be helped.

I still believe that this is the main reason we have not seen new measures for the most part. The government has basically thrown its hands up regarding the unvaccinated and just admitted they won't be able to save a good portion of them from themselves.

On a side note, Ann Arbor Public Schools originally added a full day off on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to its schedule but altered course and is taking the entire Thanksgiving week off in a effort to mitigate things. Personally I wish they would take a week or two after rather than two days before but I'll take what I can get.

My daughter got her first shot this past Wednesday so thats something at least. Of course her class in school was missing 9 of 19 students due to the virus and close contacts. That doesn't make me nervous at all. AT ALL I SAID.

[Zaxxon]

My daughter got her first shot this past Wednesday so thats something at least. Of course her class in school was missing 9 of 19 students due to the virus and close contacts. That doesn't make me nervous at all. AT ALL I SAID.

We've been fortunate here in that neither of my girls' classes have had any COVID notifications yet this year (though the school has). They are each 13 days into their first dose, and I've been pleasantly surprised at the # of their classmates who have also gotten the jab already. But I am perpetually nervous at this point that the other shoe is about to drop.

Cannot wait for them to be fully vaxxed.

[Remus West]

My daughter got her first shot this past Wednesday so thats something at least. Of course her class in school was missing 9 of 19 students due to the virus and close contacts. That doesn't make me nervous at all. AT ALL I SAID.

We've been fortunate here in that neither of my girls' classes have had any COVID notifications yet this year (though the school has). They are each 13 days into their first dose, and I've been pleasantly surprised at the # of their classmates who have also gotten the jab already. But I am perpetually nervous at this point that the other shoe is about to drop.

Cannot wait for them to be fully vaxxed.

I keep telling myself it is because nobody in her age bracket is fully vaxed yet so 1 positive case can clear a lot of the classroom by close contacts and quarantining rules. We have only had the one notification so it is officially just the one case right now. I'm just waiting on the others that surely caught it though.

On a side note, one of my sisters told me that because of her age it won't be a big deal even if my daughter were to catch it so I should relax. I felt glad that we were on the phone hundreds of miles apart as punching my own sister in the face probably wouldn't be good. I'm pretty sure she was just trying to ease my mind but I am also pretty sure I still would have punched her in that moment.

[Zaxxon]

I hear you.

[LordMortis]

My daughter got her first shot this past Wednesday so thats something at least.

Glad to hear it. We're a mess and getting worse. Trinity Health care (Joe, etc...) in Wayne/Washenaw has been at 100% capacity for over a week and UofM is currently at 93%. And if you and yours get sick, I'd have to back off gaming, even if we've only been in same room like twice in the last few months. So that's just one more seal on my only exception to leave isolation only for work, M&D, groceries, and medical.

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

[Remus West]

My daughter got her first shot this past Wednesday so thats something at least.

Glad to hear it. We're a mess and getting worse. Trinity Health care (Joe, etc...) in Wayne/Washenaw has been at 100% capacity for over a week and UofM is currently at 93%. And if you and yours get sick, I'd have to back off gaming, even if we've only been in same room like twice in the last few months. So that's just one more seal on my only exception to leave isolation only for work, M&D, groceries, and medical.

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

My wife's best friend's mother had a heart attack and has been bounced to three different hospitals looking for a bed to care for her in due to CoVid levels in all the others. It is nasty out there.

[ImLawBoy]

Unrelated, I also just saw that Chicago just started a program (today?) that allows anyone over the age of 5 to be vaccinated at home via mobile vaccinators. That's good stuff.

Oooh! I'll have to look at that for when my oldest is done with the post-surgery period and can actually get his vaccine. Depending on how it's done, it might be a lot easier than getting him out of the house (although the wheelchair lift might be installed by that time, making things a bit easier).

Wife scheduled his in-home appointment for 12/9, which is exactly 6 weeks out from his surgery!

[Smoove_B]

That's awesome to hear. I'm kinda curious to learn how a home-visit vaccination goes. I think it's a great program.

In not so great news:

U.S. COVID update: Nearly 122,000 new cases, biggest one-day increase since Oct. 6

- New cases: 121,894
- Average: 92,842
- In hospital: 49,167 (+878)
- In ICU: 12,097 (+183)
- New deaths: 1,932
- Average: 1,166

Prepare.

[malchior]

I got to spend a week with a co-worker who is ok with all this because people die. It just happens.

[Smoove_B]

“Michigan remains the worst coronavirus hot spot in the nation… As many as 1 in 10 cases in the US are now from Michigan, a Free Press analysis of federal data shows, though the state's population only accounts for about 3% of the overall US population.”

[Smoove_B]

Michigan COVID cases go higher than ever before. Only 54% in the state are fully vaccinated.

I just can't get my mind around this....higher than ever before - and there's a vaccine.

[Alefroth]

I have to think of the vaccinated of Michigan as heroes thanks to the lives they have undoubtedly saved.

[Freyland]

I have to think of the vaccinated of Michigan as heroes thanks to the lives they have undoubtedly saved.

To boost my morale today, I'm going to take that as a personal compliment.

[Alefroth]

Please do.

[Chraolic]

I just can't get my mind around this....higher than ever before - and there's a vaccine.

It's about the same in Europe right now. Most countries removed restrictions and people think they don't need to keep distancing or anything, so the virus is spreading profusely. By this point I'm thinking we'll probably get new lockdowns for Christmas.

[malchior]

I just can't get my mind around this....higher than ever before - and there's a vaccine.

It's about the same in Europe right now. Most countries removed restrictions and people think they don't need to keep distancing or anything, so the virus is spreading profusely. By this point I'm thinking we'll probably get new lockdowns for Christmas.

At least they can put controls back in place. They'll have some protests but it's a completely different game there.

[LordMortis]

From the sound of the news this morning, "some protests" is a bit of an understatement.

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/21/10577932 ... 19-restric

And knowing "the hold my beer" mentality of our nation, I'm totally ready to lock down again. Of course I was ready on Halloween when I took a look around my local and decided to start preparing for a long winter.

To listen to the non vaccinated on the situation right now, it's utter insanity. They're blaming government AKA "democratic" leadership, implementations, and mandates for the spread and they're angry that all of these other treatments aren't considered valid when they are so widely accepted in their circles. Their thinning their own herd and there's not damned thing that can be done. Insulation is becoming thicker and thicker.

I don't think we're getting lockdowns. I think we're going to get an exodus from the medical profession of people who didn't sign up for 2+ years of hazard duty because people want to be free. I think we're going to get a lot death and long haul disease. I think medical treatment is going to become a form of class distinction for the foreseeable future. Those that don't need to afford insurance, those with Cadillac plans, the masses, and the under/non-insured. I now know three people with family members getting tossed to different hospitals in the last week, unable to find care for life threatening needs. I hope we find something before what I foresee becomes reality.

[malchior]

From the sound of the news this morning, "some protests" is a bit of an understatement.

FWIW these protests are relatively small but there are a lot of opportunists involved. They are several hundred people at most of these. Support for measures are at much higher levels than they are here generally. Germany has a higher level of vaccination than us for instance after a slow start and just happened to run into a huge Delta based surge in the unvaccinated.

I don't think we're getting lockdowns. I think we're going to get an exodus from the medical profession of people who didn't sign up for 2+ years of hazard duty because people want to be free. I think we're going to get a lot death and long haul disease. I think medical treatment is going to become a form of class distinction for the foreseeable future.

Lockdowns are impossible. People are too selfish to wear piece of cloth on their face. But the health care divide was happening pre-COVID. ACA helped to stabilize things for a bit but COVID accelerated the resume into decline. Health care was already starting to move toward commoditization around lower quality care unless you were rich. And still at eye popping prices compared to our peer nations. Another thing we utterly fail at in this dumpster fire of a nation.

Those that don't need to afford insurance, those with Cadillac plans, the masses, and the under/non-insured. I now know three people with family members getting tossed to different hospitals in the last week, unable to find care for life threatening needs. I hope we find something before what I foresee becomes reality.

Same. We're dealing with elder care issues of this ilk right now in my wife's family. They move them from facility to facility, short-term stints at each, and no ability in consistency. Managing this is like a 2nd job to my MIL. It's truly awful.

[LordMortis]

My boss cancelled her trip to Hawaii to go hospital jumping with her mother last week seeking urgent cardio care related to pulmonary distress (non-COVID related). Not looking forward to catching her up on the LordMortis stories and decision making that occurred in her absence.

[Smoove_B]

Lockdowns are impossible. People are too selfish to wear piece of cloth on their face. But the health care divide was happening pre-COVID. ACA helped to stabilize things for a bit but COVID accelerated the resume into decline.

Having just attended a high school play and witnessed first-hand the number of grown-ass adults that sat in defiance of a mandatory mask requirement, my hope for the future has more or less vaporized.

Here's the deal. We now have like 8 different layers of people in the US - people that have various levels of immunity (natural exposure, vaccination (1,2,3 shots) and exposure + vaccination variety, no vaccination + no prior disease) and the pandemic is still ongoing. Everything (seriously, everything) has been pinned on getting the vaccine and that's apparently the only strategy we're willing to undertake at this point (barely). Anything else? Unacceptable. So what this means in practice is that everyone is still likely going to get the virus, it's just a matter of how well your immune system (hopefully aided by the vaccine) is going to respond.

And going with the current trends, 20-30% of the people with 1 or 2 shots are now in the "getting hospitalized" group because we refuse to wear masks and limit contacts; the virus is still actively spreading. Overwhelmingly it is still the unvaccinated that are being hospitalized and dying, but 20-30% is not an insignificant number as we head into the double holiday exposure nightmare. While most of them aren't likely to die, they're still taking up beds and chipping away at resources.

Anyway, having the virus moving through 8 different layers of immunity just continues to increase the chances that mother nature will get the right combination when she's rolling the dice.

I was actually pretty low at the height of the pandemic last year while watching humanity's response, but right now I feel worse.

[LawBeefaroni]

A little over a year ago the message was that the forthcoming vaccine would end this. It wasn't untrue but it was a horrible message because it left out the part that vaccination rate needed to be high and continued non-vaccine mitigations were required. Instead it was, "hang on a bit longer and get ready for normal in Q1/Q2!!!" Anyone that skipped Thanksgiving or Christmas or Spring break "earned" COVID freedom by summer. And that shit doesn't get put back in the bottle.

Every positive milestone becomes yet another reason to "get back to normal" and every negative milestone is handwaved away.


As a natural pessimist, this has been no surprise. They say 1 year? I assume 3. We need 75% and we'll get 80? We need 90 and we'll get 70. Masks no longer necessary? LOL.