Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Isgrimnur]

I really thought the area I live in, which is pretty diverse but also not cheap, was better than the reputation Texas has, but the past few years have really shown me how wrong I was. I lasted less than a week on nextdoor.

[Smoove_B]

Sharing because, well, John Snow humor sustains me.

Exactly! If you contract cholera, weigh your personal risk and decide whether it makes sense for you to temporarily NOT defecate in the drinking water! And remember! Getting cholera is inevitable for everyone. #1854CholeraEpidemic #FecalUrgencyofNormal #YouDoPoo

[Alefroth]

Of course, I'm in Illinois and I imagine the attitudes might be a bit different in Texas.

Or even Baja Illinois.

[hitbyambulance]

If people don't care about preventing an excess of 180K deaths a year, what number do they care about? 600K cancer deaths each year? 700K heart disease deaths each year?

"when one of my family members dies of it"

(and as we've amply seen... sometimes/usually not even that!)

[Blackhawk]

if it weren't for my mom, 2.5 years would likely be too much for me, like it is for nigh everyone else, even here. It continues to take its toll.

I'm at the extreme end of the social needs scale. I have spent the majority of my life alone, and my need to be around people is far less that most. I haven't spent time with friends in more than 2 1/2 years, and it's even starting to get to me.

[Zarathud]

We're such jerks we made my parents (and the twins) mask in the car when they took the twins to the zoo last week. They're way too out and about for us to trust them!

Fear is real. My paralegal was out with his second infection because his mother infected their toddler who then spread it to the household. They’re planning to tour the local preschool which is going to be another risk vector.

I think enough people know more who have been infected and re-infected that they’ve given up. Or see the risk as small. For us, we know the 4,000 student high school my kids attend is our best (and really only good) option in the city. But my kids are rule followers, not rebels.

We hold the line at unmasking around up to 10 persons outside our household each week. My team at the office is 4, with 2 from the office mailroom or administrative team checking in. We’re in a corner of the floor, and I can close my office door.

It’s going to suck when we move to our new build-out that’s closer to traffic to the elevator. My hope is the airflow gets better, but we’re still headquartered out of Indiana-Ohio so that’s likely not a management priority.

[LawBeefaroni]

I hope they are taking full advantage of other current workplace trends such as facsimile machines, carbon-copy paper and Clippy.

I should also note that during the fully remote days (most of 2020, all of 2021) they somehow managed to take in record-level profits - best years on record. But I guess it all happened without being able to speak face-to-face, so imagine what they're going to be able to do this year!

There's $5.T worth of loans on commercial real estate in the US. That shit doesn't service itself. Empty offices make banks nervous. You don't want nervous banks, do you? Doing that Rodney Dangerfield collar thing?

Changes in lessee and consumer preference could reduce long-term occupancy in certain CRE, such as office buildings and regional malls, resulting in lower cash flow and more difficulty in servicing debt. In addition, properties with shorter term leases such as hotels (nightly) or apartments (annually) can more rapidly adjust rents in reaction to inflation, but properties subject to long-term fixed rental rates have less rent flexibility.

Our analysis shows how these emerging risks to the CRE market could have a detrimental impact on CRE loan performance leading, and thus continued monitoring of the future performance of CRE is important for financial stability.

[malchior]

What drives me crazy about the whole thing is that it is a ticking time bomb with a solution if everyone could get their heads out of their asses. There are some markets (maybe many) where that commercial overstock is a perfect solution for one of our other huge problems - crisis level shortages of housing stock. The most obvious one for this is NYC where we are already seeing some commercial real estate being converted in the financial district.

[Isgrimnur]

Nothing like living three floors under your job.

[LordMortis]

If people don't care about preventing an excess of 180K deaths a year, what number do they care about? 600K cancer deaths each year? 700K heart disease deaths each year?

"when one of my family members dies of it"

(and as we've amply seen... sometimes/usually not even that!)

Or they become more distrustful of the BIG Medical.

[LordMortis]

White noise in the background broke through with "Frozen pizza is up 18% year over year". Strange what breaks through from noise to signal.

Edit, I swear to pancake I posted this in the viral economy thread. Must have seen Virus instead of viral...

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, well, like, frozen pizza is a high priority, man

[LawBeefaroni]

When you give up, you give up.

I'll admit to eating an entire frozen pizza during a Friday night gaming session in the height of lockdowns.

[LordMortis]

When you give up, you give up.

I'll admit to eating an entire frozen pizza during a Friday night gaming session in the height of lockdowns.

I don't get out to pick up and delivery is crazy expensive. There is only me, so when I buy a frozen pizza, I tend to eat the whole thing over the course of several hours. I'm partial to the Freshetta Supreme. A year ago it went on sale for $2.99. Now it goes on sale for $3.99.

[Zaxxon]

Wheeeeeeee!

C.D.C. Eases Covid Guidelines, Eliminating Quarantines https://nyti.ms/3PiRCYU

[Smoove_B]

[LawBeefaroni]

There is some nuance.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/11/health/c ... index.html

The new guidance also does not advise quarantining people who've been exposed to Covid-19 but are not infected.

But the guidance does keep some measures the same. It encourages testing for people with symptoms and their close contacts. It also says people who test positive should stay home for at least five days and wear a mask around others for 10 days. It also continues to recommend that people wear masks indoors n about half the country.

But every single headline is "CDC ends quarantin

[Zaxxon]

[Zaxxon]

So many solid takes...

[Smoove_B]

Yes, between the CDC and the APHA's decisions yesterday, it's been a *wild* 24 hours on public health social media.

[malchior]

Yes, between the CDC and the APHA's decisions yesterday, it's been a *wild* 24 hours on public health social media.

Now Leana Wen can use this backlash as an example in her 'Backlash' speech. It's like the NYT Pitchbot is running these organizations.

[El Guapo]

There is some nuance.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/11/health/c ... index.html

The new guidance also does not advise quarantining people who've been exposed to Covid-19 but are not infected.

But the guidance does keep some measures the same. It encourages testing for people with symptoms and their close contacts. It also says people who test positive should stay home for at least five days and wear a mask around others for 10 days. It also continues to recommend that people wear masks indoors n about half the country.

But every single headline is "CDC ends quarantin

The CDC and the media are quite the tag team for covid responses.

[Smoove_B]

Nuance? I dunno, after reading:

Schools and ECE programs should consider flexible, non-punitive policies and practices to support individuals who choose to wear masks regardless of the COVID-19 Community Level.

my mental circuit breakers pretty much melted.

[El Guapo]

So schools should consider not slapping children who want to wear masks in schools?

[Smoove_B]

*Consider* it. This timeline is so goddamn dark I can't take much more.

They can't even say "Don't punish kids that are trying to protect themselves and high risk household members by wearing a mask". Instead, please just think about it. FFS.

[LawBeefaroni]

Chicago Public Schools start on Monday. They don't have a COVID plan but they did do an active shooter drill.

[Zaxxon]

We had our first strike, as my third-grader tested positive last Friday. Thankfully mild symptoms and she was over it on Tues. Didn't test negative until this am, tho.

[malchior]

Just to pair it with the NY Times NYC Mayor Adams column we have this...

[Smoove_B]

I don't know exactly when it started, but there's a subset of public health on social media that has noticed many of the liberal voices/influencers (and politicians) are now quiet and and/or actively supporting this "back to normal" nonsense. Worse, they're incapable of criticizing what's being done (or what's not being done) seemingly because it's "their team" that is in charge and screwing this up.

Anecdotally there definitely seems to be a subset of people that don't care what's happening as long as their party of choice is making the decisions. And as it turns out, neither party has the electorate in focus with respect to protecting people at risk.

This continues to be a very, very weird time for me.

[Smoove_B]

We had our first strike, as my third-grader tested positive last Friday. Thankfully mild symptoms and she was over it on Tues. Didn't test negative until this am, tho.

Please know that I'm terribly frustrated for you and your 3rd grader. It doesn't need to be this way. Glad it was mild; I genuinely fear this school year is going to be a mess.

[Zaxxon]

We had our first strike, as my third-grader tested positive last Friday. Thankfully mild symptoms and she was over it on Tues. Didn't test negative until this am, tho.

Please know that I'm terribly frustrated for you and your 3rd grader. It doesn't need to be this way. Glad it was mild; I genuinely fear this school year is going to be a mess.

Thanks. I agree that we are in for a wild and crazy fall season. I'm buckled in and hoping for the best.

[malchior]

I don't know exactly when it started, but there's a subset of public health on social media that has noticed many of the liberal voices/influencers (and politicians) are now quiet and and/or actively supporting this "back to normal" nonsense. Worse, they're incapable of criticizing what's being done (or what's not being done) seemingly because it's "their team" that is in charge and screwing this up.

FWIW this is seeing what has been happening elsewhere migrate into your corner of the neighborhood. The polarization/politicization of every function is spreading the rot throughout the system. I've seen it for years in cybersecurity. Attacks by foreign powers have ramped up considerably. You'd think that'd a case to defend ourselves. Nope it butts up with fallout of the Russia investigation from 2016. So all these attacks are all make believe to a large segment of the population. I guess I'll tell the next business I help that their 'advanced persistent threat' actor is a figment of their imagination and that ransom they paid didn't actually happen. This is what happens when a society breaks down. They stop trusting objective truth and cling to fantasies. We are seeing it EVERYWHERE now and it is killing people.

Fun quick anecdote, my friend is a mail carrier in rural north jersey (along the Route 23 corridor). Today 4 out of 13 in his office are out with COVID. The next nearest office over has 75% of the staff out. My mail carrier retired two weeks back. He was older and said he was seeing too many people getting COVID over and over and his wife has long COVID. But that isn't happening either, right?

[Smoove_B]

What living with COVID-19 looks like

CDC estimated US excess deaths

Aug 2, 2020 - July 31, 2021: 443,419
Aug 1, 2021 - July 30, 2022: 514,033

[Alefroth]

When do they stop being excess deaths?

[Smoove_B]

There's always excess deaths. I think the question you should be asking is "When will excess deaths go back to historical (i.e. pre 2020) levels?"

The bad news there is that things in America were trending bad before COVID-19 hit if you compared us to similar nations (with respect to excess deaths); they've just been made worse, especially for certain demographics (same as it ever was).

[malchior]

I'll assume that the graph dropping at the end is a data artifact because the series isn't fully collected. However, an interpretation of that is that delta/omicron drove a lot of death over last fall (which we knew). If it doesn't repeat then it's not great but it might not be this high a count come next year. That doesn't presume that we have a big wave or flu or whatever but the back of envelope math suggests what? 1.5M+ dead from COVID and everyone is sort of calling it a day?

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, snap-shots of the data while we're still in the thick of it is probably why it looks wonky at the end point. Like everything else, it's going to be debated for decades (or longer) - similar to how we try to guess at the true loss of life for the 1918 pandemic. We'll probably never know (then and now), but I think most agree we're undercounting the true number.

[Zaxxon]

There's always excess deaths. I think the question you should be asking is "When will excess deaths go back to historical (i.e. pre 2020) levels?"

I don't think that what he's asking. When will they not be considered excess, but rather just regular modern let er rip deaths?

[Isgrimnur]

When natural disasters eclipse their totals.

[Smoove_B]

I don't think that what he's asking. When will they not be considered excess, but rather just regular modern let er rip deaths?

Ah. I think that is part of my follow up - we'll never get a full total. I mean, maybe over the next decade someone will do a study and move some of the excess deaths into COVID-19 related deaths (not just "excess"), but right now we're just using it as another way to demonstrate how utterly shitty everything continues to be (and noticing seasonal patterns as we get ready for our third pandemic winter).