Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

I'm glad this is "over"...we just got word that a former boss of my wife only a year or two older than me (under 50 - definitely vaxed and boosted to boot) had a "mild" case of COVID up until it was suddenly fatal overnight.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

What is the reasoning that keeps 2nd boosters from being generally available? They are still restricted to over 50 or immunocompromised.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:44 am
Yeah, it's pretty flawed but I guess the question is does a prior infection increase the chances of severe symptoms or is it just a second roll of the dice?
Yeah, not sure about that (a quick glance at the paper didn't tell me) although my intuition is that it would increase the chance in some of the cases - eg, since covid increases your chances of developing diabetes, heart conditions or other conditions, if you do develop one of those conditions, I would think it would make you much more vulnerable when covid strikes again.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:44 am Yeah, it's pretty flawed but I guess the question is does a prior infection increase the chances of severe symptoms or is it just a second roll of the dice?
The actual study seems to conclude that infection increases the chances of severe symptoms and long COVID conditions in subsequent infections. Since infection often results in long term debilitating effects, and at least some of those conditions are known to increase the risk of more severe symptoms, then it makes sense that the risk factors will start to stack up over multiple infections. For example, COVID can cause diabetes, and diabetes increases the chance of a bad outcome.

Edit: Jinx!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:00 am What is the reasoning that keeps 2nd boosters from being generally available? They are still restricted to over 50 or immunocompromised.
Here's what I could find:
Most Americans under 50 should wait for the next generation of booster shots rather than getting a fourth dose now to prevent Covid-19 infections, according to several members of a panel of advisers to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavir ... l-suggests

At Max: :lol:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

It's related to the studies demonstrating the greatest benefit (lowered risk of hospitalization and death) for people 50+ (from the studies). We haven't hit a supply (or demand) issue - I''m pretty sure we're destroying an obscene amount of vaccines each week that are expiring.

In the Fall it could be a supply issue a shots are going to be prioritized for elders. But it's a frustrating equation when you look at the number of eligible adults that need a booster that haven't received one (I think we're at ~70% nationwide that have), especially at a state and local level. I can understand why there's no motivation to get a second booster for people under 50 - despite the people in our general age range (~35-49) suffering from disproportionate infections and complications.

EDIT: That's what I get for not hitting submit. :)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:03 am It's related to the studies demonstrating the greatest benefit (lowered risk of hospitalization and death) for people 50+ (from the studies). We haven't hit a supply (or demand) issue - I''m pretty sure we're destroying an obscene amount of vaccines each week that are expiring.

In the Fall it could be a supply issue a shots are going to be prioritized for elders. But it's a frustrating equation when you look at the number of eligible adults that need a booster that haven't received one (I think we're at ~70% nationwide that have), especially at a state and local level. I can understand why there's no motivation to get a second booster for people under 50 - despite the people in our general age range (~35-49) suffering from disproportionate infections and complications.

EDIT: That's what I get for not hitting submit. :)
I'm not following. If we're destroying doses, why am I being actively prevented from getting one?

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Indeed. It boggles the mind.

As pointed out above, I am not sure what the best option is (medically) at this point. It might be something your doctor can make happen - assuming there is any gate keeping going on at the vaccine provider.

If you're under 50 getting another shot at this point would be going against the approval and I don't know what the liabilities are there. I just tried to fill out an application with a large-chain pharmacy in my area and in order to get one they wanted me (under 50) to attest that I have a weakened immune system.

But to go back to the above, the time to have received the second booster would have likely been closer to February of this year, and then *another* one (the updated shots, ideally) this coming Fall. I don't know what would happen if you wrangled another shot today - if you'd need to wait 4 or 6 months to get the next one.

Everything is so confusing and needlessly complicated at this point; I'm beyond frustrated.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by msteelers »

Publix, without stating a reason as to why has announced they will not be vaccinating children under 5.
Since COVID-19 vaccines first became available, Publix has played a major role in tackling the public health emergency in Florida by offering vaccines to adults and, later, children as young as 5.

But the Lakeland grocery company says it will not offer the vaccine approved for children ages 4 and under “at this time.”

Spokesperson Hannah Herring said Tuesday that Publix will not release a statement explaining its decision. The company’s website indicates that it is still accepting COVID-19 vaccine appointments for children ages 5 and up.

The company still offers other child vaccinations, including the flu shot for babies as young as 6 months.
Outside of donating to Republicans, Publix isn't a chain that I often associate with pushing right-wing conspiracies. I wonder if any of this is fear of getting on DeSantis' bad side. We've already seen him go after Disney and the FL baseball teams for speaking up. I kind of doubt Publix is doing this out of fear of the governor, but the fact that I can't rule it out says a lot about how far into fascism we've fallen.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Doesn't seem like a political decision by Publix. Guessing it's either liability or staffing. Possibly marketing, not wanting a bunch of kids running around. I think they still have to wait 15 minutes after the shot to ensure no major side effects.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by msteelers »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:48 pm not wanting a bunch of kids running around.
Tell me you've never been to a Publix without telling me you've never been to a Publix. :wink:

I highly doubt that would be it. Kids are in and out of that store all day long with their families, and they are still giving flu shots to kids 6 months and up.
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:48 pm I think they still have to wait 15 minutes after the shot to ensure no major side effects.
Did any place actually follow that? I straight up asked after my first shot at Walgreens "do you need me to stick around" and they said no.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

msteelers wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:04 pm Did any place actually follow that? I straight up asked after my first shot at Walgreens "do you need me to stick around" and they said no.
CVS always told me to but they didn't monitor. It was like checking a box on their liability.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

msteelers wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:04 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:48 pm not wanting a bunch of kids running around.
Tell me you've never been to a Publix without telling me you've never been to a Publix. :wink:

I highly doubt that would be it. Kids are in and out of that store all day long with their families, and they are still giving flu shots to kids 6 months and up.
:D
I had visions of barefoot kids running amok but didn't want to assume.
msteelers wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:04 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:48 pm I think they still have to wait 15 minutes after the shot to ensure no major side effects.
Did any place actually follow that? I straight up asked after my first shot at Walgreens "do you need me to stick around" and they said no.
When I got the 5YO a shot last week they were making people stay.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

TN Repugnicans showing their stupid side to the public again.

Tennessee Republican pushing to halt Covid-19 vaccine for young Tennesseans
In a letter to Tennessee’s Governor Bill Lee, Republican leaders are urging Governor Lee to direct the Tennessee Department of Health to halt the distribution, promotion, and recommendation of Covid-19 vaccinations for children ages five and under.

The letter was written by State Representative Jason Zachary and signed by Tennessee Speaker of House Cameron Sexton, House Majority Leader William Lamberth, and House Republican Caucus Chairman Jeremy Faison.

State Representative Jason Zachary claims he felt compelled to send the letter to halt distribution of Covid vaccines for children ages five and under for several reasons.
“One, the 66-page report that I did read does not reference at all the short term or long term impacts that injecting and mRNA vaccine into these babies bodies and what kind of impact it is going to have. That does not at all reference those who have had a prior Covid infection and some reports say that 70-percent of children have already been infected with Covid,” Zachary said.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Well, golly gee, it doesn't reference those things at all?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:20 am I'm not following. If we're destroying doses, why am I being actively prevented from getting one?
Just to come back to what I'd mentioned earlier, this was announced a few hours ago:

Jha says that due to lack of funding, the U.S. will not have enough bivalent vaccines for every American who wants one this fall and winter. And that's if the FDA authorizes the updated shots.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

Then let me pay for it?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Can't pay for what the companies won't make. And I can't blame them - no one wants to vaccinate. What company is going to spend untold piles of money to manufacture and ship vaccines that no one wants (domestically).

If this was part of a movie, no one would believe it, yet here we are.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

How will we know which vaccines are "bivalent" (defend against multiple variants, I assume) as I will be very ready by August for my next vaccine and I should be allowed such as someone who is immunosuppressed with four shot total.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

The FDA has to approve them first. Regardless, as someone that is on the current approval list (immunosupressed), you *should* be able to get your next shot. Again, I'm not worried about hospitalization and death (as much) for me anymore - I've had my shots. I am more concerned about getting Covid over and over and suffering chronic health issues and/or potentially spreading mild infection to someone that is high risk, so masking will continue.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:06 am Can't pay for what the companies won't make. And I can't blame them - no one wants to vaccinate. What company is going to spend untold piles of money to manufacture and ship vaccines that no one wants (domestically).

If this was part of a movie, no one would believe it, yet here we are.
They've already made them. They are being thrown out.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, it's frustrating. Again, presumably because as someone under 50 (like me) you're not in the "approved" range for use. So much better to just throw it out then. :doh:

In other news, an excellent article from Salon on our "new normal" - the world we now live in, by choice:
Instead, the goalposts are being shifted. As a news report revealed earlier this month, the Biden administration has deliberated internally on how to"gauge what the American public would 'tolerate'" in terms of pandemic deaths per day. This is a disturbing deviation from responsible public health policy, which requires breaking chains of transmission, driving case numbers down, and treating deaths as preventable — not inevitable.

But amid bad news, the White House has remained relentlessly optimistic. Recently, COVID-19 Coordinator Ashish Jha claimed "We're in a way better place than where we were two years ago" — just days after the US recorded 1 million pandemic deaths. In March, the White House released the National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan, a document intended to "enable America to move forward safely (...) as we get back to our normal routines." If the country's current pandemic outcomes are indeed the "new normal" we've been promised, Americans should be looking carefully at what we are normalizing.
I knew this, but seeing it stated so plainly, it was still jarring; it need to be repeated often:
Part of our concern stems from COVID-19's enormous epidemiological footprint. In 2020, the novel coronavirus became the third leading cause of death in the United States. Provisional 2021 data show it remains there, led only by heart disease and cancer. From a historical perspective, this is a shocking development: the last time the United States saw an infectious disease as a top-three cause of death was 1937, before the availability of penicillin.
Bigger picture:
Where many pundits have attempted to normalize COVID-19 or make it seem trivial by comparing it to other causes of death, such as cancer and the flu, this is a misleading way of thinking about death at the level of the national population. The impact of COVID-19 has caused a sea change in patterns of mortality in the United States. Indeed, the outsize share of death now caused by an infectious disease could threaten a reversal of the gains we've made in public health over the last seventy-five years. This concerning trend in mortality is not our only cause for concern: as the CDC recently reported, some 1 in 5 Americans who are infected with COVID-19 will experience long COVID symptoms.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Ed Yong, slinging it on Monday morning;
America’s recurring mistake is to create such technofixes at warp speed, while neglecting the systems that actually deploy those tools. Those systems—the country’s social infrastructure—are so porous that a multitude of smaller projects are necessary to patch each and every hole. Once lost, trust is hard to regain at scale. But it can slowly be rebuilt.
He's really getting into the details about how public health *should* be working (nuts and bolts stuff) - a map of how we could be trying to find a way out, so I'm not sure if there's broad interest. But once again, he's nailed it.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

It appears that BA.5 is winning out hereabouts.

Omicron subvariant expected to become dominant strain in Ontario: science table head
The head of Ontario's COVID-19 science table says a subvariant of Omicron is soon expected to become the dominant strain in the province.

The growth rate of the BA.5 subvariant has outpaced all previous lineages of the virus, according to a recent report from Public Health Ontario (PHO).

Dr. Fahad Razak, scientific director of the province's COVID- 19 advisory table, said there is some cause for concern as BA.5 becomes the dominant strain.

Razak, an internist at Unity Health Toronto, said the variant is much better at getting around immunity, whether that immunity is from a vaccine, previous infection or both. He said immunity against the latest variant is "much weaker" when compared to previous Omicron subvariants like BA.1 and BA.2.
The latest wastewater data seen on the science table's dashboard, however, shows an uptick in the level of infection across the province. Razak said the rise in the level of infection seen over the last few weeks is significant, though "not as strong as before."

With the relaxing of most public health measures including the lifting of mask mandates earlier this month, Razak is urging Ontarians to continue wearing a mask in high-risk settings such as on public transit and in offices and malls.

"It's all about risk reduction, there's no black and white here anymore," he said. "It's about doing the individual steps you can to reduce risk where you can."
At the moment, the local uptick in the wastewater viral signature seems to have levelled off again, so it appears that we have at least a bit of a reprieve before the next real wave.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Freyland »

Well, of course Omnicron B"eh"5 would be the dominant strain in Canada.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

There was a farmer's market on campus today. I walked by on my way back from a meeting. One of the tents was giving away Binax home tests, wouldn't let me go by without one.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Assuming it works for the next variant, you'll need it for the Fall.

Hearing not great things about BA.5, fwiw. Not only regarding immunity evasion but that the symptoms it causes are worse - more focused on lungs again.

Stay vigilant.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

I've been reading that there are indications that BA.4 and BA.5 are more lung-oriented again, which would likely lead to more serious symptoms, but the official story seems to be that it's too soon to know for sure.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Where are you hearing such things? :wink:

But seriously, if you'd like to read more (though this does tilt a bit technical), Dr. Topol provides and excellent summary (with lots of graphs):
It will very soon be the dominant (>50%) variant in the United States. BA.5 was ~37% as of June 25th. The risk of reinfection with BA.5 has substantially increased because prior infections are far away (antigenically) from an aligned immune response.

...

Obviously, the non-pharmacologic mitigating measures that include high-quality make (N95/KN95), physical distancing, ventilation and air filtration would help, but pandemic fatigue has led to very low level of adoption. Boosters would help, and it is noteworthy that for people age 50+ there is a substantial (14-fold) reduction for mortality as recently documented by the CDC for a 4th shot (previously published by the Israel investigators in multiple observational studies). That is 99% reduction in mortality for 4-shots vs 86% for 3 shots. But only 1 in 4 Americans age 50+ have had a fourth shot!

The big question now is whether an Omicron booster, directed to BA.1, will help when that variant is no longer with us, and we will be close to 100% BA.5 within a matter of weeks. And no doubt there will be further troublesome variants that lie ahead, be they more in the Omicron family or in a whole new lineage.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

My wife went to the funeral for her former boss yesterday. He had 3 shots. Day 1 and 2 he was walking, talking, and thinking it was mild. He was in and out consciousness on day 3. They didn't realize it was him passing out at first and by the time they called for help he had died. Two kids in college. But just the flu.

One thing I thought about is a downside to the vaccine is that people might overlook the danger signs. It certainly sounded like it was the case here from what she heard from the widow.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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malchior wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:31 pm My wife went to the funeral for her former boss yesterday. He had 3 shots. Day 1 and 2 he was walking, talking, and thinking it was mild. He was in and out consciousness on day 3. They didn't realize it was him passing out at first and by the time they called for help he had died. Two kids in college. But just the flu.
For some it is not even as bad as the flu, and for others it is like this. You don't know until you catch it, I think that is what makes it deadly.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:14 pm There was a farmer's market on campus today. I walked by on my way back from a meeting. One of the tents was giving away Binax home tests, wouldn't let me go by without one.
Our town hall was giving away tests to residents today. The last time they did so they ran out within an hour, so I was there for the opening bell today. We're going through a lot of tests this week. They threw in some good surgical masks just for good measure...not that anyone wears masks anymore.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Interesting piece in (checks notes) Fortune magazine on Long Covid:
COVID just got a lot more complicated.

With cases rising in the U.S. and globally yet again, fueled by subvariants known to evade immunity, questions abound.

How long does immunity last?

How many times will I get COVID?

Do I have long COVID—and if not, what are the chances I’ll get it eventually?
They then go on to detail the various groups then that are at risk for developing Long Covid. Let me spoiler it for you.
Spoiler:
Everyone. The answer is everyone.
But if you want to read the specific analysis and groups, it's still a good way to think about it.

I'm waiting for more reputable people to start chatting about the BA.2.75 variant that's apparently circulating in India. There are various folks speaking about it now online, but I don't have the ability to ascertain if I should trust their opinions (they're people I've not been following).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 1:25 pm the BA.2.75 variant that's apparently circulating in India.
And elsewhere.
Scientists are keeping their eyes on a new SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) variant descended from the Omicron variant that has an unusual nine mutations on its spike protein and has spread to countries across the globe somewhat faster than other such variants.

The new variant, identified as BA.2.75, was first found in a sequence taken in India in early June. Since then, the variant has been spotted in Australia, Canada, Japan, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the US. In just a matter of weeks, the variant has been detected in over 80 sequences around the world.

While it is still unclear if BA.2.75 will be able to compete with BA.5, the dominant variant in many countries at the moment, the number of mutations and its seemingly fast spread across a wide geographic area have scientists keeping an eye on it.
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, that's true. I think they were focusing on India because of the number of cases - being able to determine the potential for how much of a problem it could be was going to happen relatively quickly.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »


For both 2020 and 2021, Covid was the 3rd leading cause for death in the United States, by @theNCI @JAMAInternalMed In 2021, it was the #1 cause of death in Americans age 45-54
Let me repeat that:

In 2021, it was the #1 cause of death in Americans age 45-54
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zarathud »

Another way Generation X is forgotten.
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LordMortis
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Another Generation X
Who somehow slipped through the cracks
They'd love to see me fall
But I'm already on back
And it goes one ear and right out the other
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

to use that baseball analogy... bottom of the 4th, now? don't get your hopes up

https://www.courant.com/news/connecticu ... story.html
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:34 pm
If you remember back to the earliest days there were suggestions that we'd be dealing with this (globally) through 2024. It doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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