Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 5:17 pm
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:34 pm
If you remember back to the earliest days there were suggestions that we'd be dealing with this (globally) through 2024. It doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
It's crazy to think it'll be behind us after 2024.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

We'll definitely be in a different spot as we stroll through 2024 (with the virus).

If the theory holds, enough people are going to be fuct up that our current strategy will finally be recognized as a bad idea and then have us wondering how much worse it will get as we head into the second half of the decade. How that ripples out into politics, the economy, healthcare, etc... remains to be seen.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Why wait for a fall wave when you can squeeze one in during the summer?

Ontario's 7th wave of COVID-19 is here, top doctor confirms amid exponential growth
Ontario has officially entered its seventh wave of COVID-19, driven this time by the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, the province's top doctor confirms.

"Sadly yes, we're in another wave," Dr. Kieran Moore, the province's chief medical officer, told CBC News Wednesday after Ontario's COVID-19 science advisory table pointed to exponential growth in most public health units.

Moore says the province is now reviewing further eligibility for booster doses and that a decision on that will be coming soon.

The BA.5 subvariant has been rising slowly since early June but really started to "take off" mid-month, becoming a dominant strain, Moore said. Ontario can likely expect another four to five weeks in this wave, which is now in about its third week, he said, adding infections are expected to increase over the next 10 days before beginning to slow.

The new wave comes amid the summer months when many are spending more time outdoors — something that would have otherwise been expected to help curb the spread of transmission, raising questions about what will happen as more people head indoors later in the year.

"Lots of unknowns for the fall but I can assure all Ontarians we're preparing for it," said Moore.

According to the province's top doctor, 66 per cent of new circulating strains are now the BA.5 strain, driving an increase in test positivity and hospitalizations.

"We may ask Ontarians to wear masks as we go indoors into the fall and we may mandate it if our health system has too many people getting admitted, too many people waiting in emergency departments... All of us want to maintain our health system capacity."

In a series of tweets Wednesday, the science table pointed to several key indicators signalling the beginning of a wave, little more than a month after the end of most public health measures, including mask mandates.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

The Forever Plague sounds about right.

Get Ready for the Forever Plague
Public health officials’ COVID complacency has opened the door to new illnesses and devastating long-term damage.

While Omicron’s subvariants find new ways to evade vaccines and destabilize immune systems, another pandemic has overwhelmed officials who are supposed to be in charge of public health.

Let’s call it a plague of willful incompetence or an outbreak of epidemiological stupidity. Or maybe José Saramago’s novel has come to life and targeted public officials with a scourge of blindness.

In any case, COVID, a novel virus that can wreak havoc with any organ in the body, continues to evolve at a furious pace.

In response officials have largely abandoned any coherent response, including masking, testing, tracing and even basic data collection.

Yes, the people have been abandoned.

So don’t expect “normal” to return to your hospital, your airport, your nation, your community or your life anytime soon.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

So yeah. That article has been making the rounds. There are some good points in it, but for the most part it's being discredited for the apocalyptic scenario being painted.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Does he make claims that aren't backed up by facts, or do people just object to him being such a Debbie Downer?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

There's two main points he's muddling. The first is over immunity, suggesting that the new strains treat you as if you have no prior protection (if you've had it and/or have been vaccinated). The new strains have the ability to "evade" immunity; they don't treat your body like you've never had prior protections. Connected to that is the theory that the virus is permanently destroying T-cells. The virus seemingly wipes out T-cells as part of an infection, but that's not unusual - they'll come back. Any time you're sick, T-cells are depleted. I believe there's some debate of the severity of that depletion (is it "normal"), but in terms of destroying your immune system function (like HIV does) forever, that's not happening.

That's what's unfortunate - he has these fringe (really fringe) elements couched in what is solid advice about things like getting vaccinated and how we don't fully know all that much about Long Covid.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »


a few immutable truths:

we are so far averaging more covid deaths a day in 2022 than 2020/2021.

the death rate is 2x fold higher in low income neighbourhoods.

“living with covid” has meant discriminate death and harm.

need protective policies in place to keep people alive.
We're currently averaging ~300 deaths a day in the United States. I bet if you asked people on the street they'd have no idea or guess it's in the teens.

In short, that translates to about 110K deaths a year - that we know of, or ~3x the average annual deaths from influenza. No wonder trying to get people to vaccinate against annual influenza for the last 20 years has been so difficult. People don't even care about Covid at the current levels; to think they'd even acknowledge influenza is laughable in retrospect.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

New study out today in the MMWR - I know you were all waiting.


New @CDCMMWR finds once hospitalized, adults w/ weakened immune systems more likely to be admitted to ICU or die from #COVID19 than those w/o. People with weakened immune systems need multiple layers of COVID-19 protection, including vaccination.
For reference there are about ~7 million adults that have weakened immune systems in the United States - roughly the entire population of Tennessee or Massachusetts that needs multiple layers of protection.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by coopasonic »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:55 pm For reference there are about ~7 million adults that have weakened immune systems in the United States - roughly the entire population of Tennessee or Massachusetts that needs multiple layers of protection.
But which is it, TN or MA? Your answer will help me determine my level of concern.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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coopasonic wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:24 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:55 pm For reference there are about ~7 million adults that have weakened immune systems in the United States - roughly the entire population of Tennessee or Massachusetts that needs multiple layers of protection.
But which is it, TN or MA? Your answer will help me determine my level of concern.
Okay. I chuckled. So I'm probably bound for hell now, eh? :lol:

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Max Peck wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:33 pm Does he make claims that aren't backed up by facts, or do people just object to him being such a Debbie Downer?
Was waiting for something like this to come out:
This week, a very scary-sounding article went viral (“Get Ready for the Forever Plague”!), accompanied by a picture of an equally scary crow-faced plague doctor in a hoodie. “Just one infection can destabilize your immune system and age it by 10 years,” the journalist wrote. “As a consequence it is now possible to be reinfected with one of omicron’s variants every two to three weeks,” and “each reinfection confers no immunity.”

Let’s get this out of the way: None of that is true. The article was roundly criticized by numerous experts on Twitter as sloppy and error-ridden, and hyperbolic. But it clearly struck a nerve, because it taps into legitimate concerns about the stage of the pandemic we’re in.

...

The “Forever Plague” article resonated with many because it successfully conveyed the urgency of the pandemic when the zeitgeist is maddeningly blasé. Who cares if there are some errors, one might argue, if this article scares people into action? But I disagree. As others have noted, it’s possible to believe two things simultaneously: That COVID is an extraordinary public health crisis with unknown short- and long-term effects on human health, and that inaccurate facts used for fearmongering aren’t helpful. The seriousness of the pandemic speaks for itself, but manipulating a pandemic-weary public with despair-inducing lies isn’t the way to get them to listen.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

coopasonic wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:24 pm But which is it, TN or MA? Your answer will help me determine my level of concern.
I was trying to get a representative sample for OOers from all over, but your point is noted. :D
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:34 pm Was waiting for something like this to come out:
Thanks for the additional follow-up.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

This might be a bit...heavy, but it's a great article on what the data is telling us about reinfections:
Before Omicron, reinfections were rare. In the U.K., reinfections comprised around 1% of cases in April 2021. With the introduction of Omicron, reinfection rates quickly increased to 11% of all infections. Right now, reinfections make up about 25-27% of cases in the U.K. (Remember, U.K. tracks antigen and PCR tests.)

Unfortunately, we don’t have a national picture of reinfections in the U.S. Some local jurisdictions closely follow the data. In New York, for example, ~25% of cases this week were reinfections. The rate of first infection is 28 per 100K in NY compared to a reinfection rate of 5 per 100K. Waves are still very much being driven by first infections, but reinfections are on the rise.
Risk:
Thanks to U.K. surveillance data, we know people are more likely to be reinfected if they:

are unvaccinated

had a “milder” primary infection with a lower viral load

did not report symptoms with their first infection

are younger (although reinfections are rising for all age groups, as seen below)
How quick:
An early 2021 study found that people have great protection from SARS-CoV-2 in the first 90 days after infection. In fact, the CDC still uses the 90-day window to exclude counting new positives as reinfections. However, reinfections do occur earlier. A study in Denmark found that while pre-Omicron reinfections were rare (593 out of 4.4 million people), many occurred within 60 days of infection. Two additional studies (here, here) confirmed reinfections occurred as early as 20 days after infection during the first Omicron wave (reinfections remained rare; 1,739 out of 1.8 million people).

...

One could theoretically get reinfected week after week or month after month, but this would be incredibly rare because it assumes no immune response after each subsequent infection. In fact, I’m unaware of a single instance of rapid reinfection described. The cadence of reinfection going forward (every 6 months? every year?) is not clear, as we are at the mercy of time, viral evolution, and booster roll-outs.
There's some more about severity, which I'll let y'all read. In closing:
There are myriad reasons we need to do our best to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission and prevent infection. Wearing masks, staying up to date with vaccines, and improved ventilation will help. And, ideally, reinfections would not occur. But we are well past the point of zero COVID, and reinfections can be expected, just like with other respiratory viruses. Vaccine and infection-induced immunity is clearly reducing severity of reinfection. Unfortunately, protection from severe reinfection isn’t guaranteed for high-risk groups.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

100% accurate

This is our @CDCgov

X No warning on BA.5
X Still says 2 vaccine doses ="fully vaccinated"
X Says 5 days is all that's needed for isolation when 5 days is the median length of infectiousness
X 1 in 4 age 50+ w/ 2nd booster (<-survival benefit)
X Transmission is the accurate map
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

Re: reinfections - is it that surprising it's an increasing percentage, when so much of the population has had covid at least once, and there's immune evasion?


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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Defiant wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 1:24 pm Re: reinfections - is it that surprising it's an increasing percentage, when so much of the population has had covid at least once, and there's immune evasion?
Well, yeah. That's the kicker. Prior to Omicron reinfection was relatively rare. Now...not so much. And guess what? By continuing to encourage uncontrolled spread, we're selecting strains of viruses that are going to get better and better at being communicable and evading immunity.

That's the theory, anyway.

And this is where the anti-vax / anti mask Covid lunatics are winning. Because they're yelling about how ineffective vaccination and masking are - just look at all the vaccinated (and masked) people that are still getting it! Completely ignoring immune evasion and increased communicability (requiring n95+ disciplined use) that emerged as a result of how we're trying to address the pandemic.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

i ordered a 3M half-face elastomer respirator (6502QL, medium size) with P100 cartridges from cyberweld.com . i had ordered one last year, but i stupidly had it sent to the wrong address and i never got it!

i think i want one of these and will wear it to every concert i go to: https://www.etsy.com/listing/897416653/ ... hield-face combine that with a respirator, and i think i'm good
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I applaud your mentality. I'm personally having a hard time imagining going to a concert ever again.

New favorite quote (looking at data from VA):


people aren't getting as many PCR tests but the poop doesn't lie.
Indeed, it does not.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Seems like a shitty situation.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Then you're going to love this:


The actual truth is that in the US, waning + omicron + massive failure to express the need for boosters has led to a modest drop in efficacy. But this modest drop has translated into tens of thousands of additional deaths among the vaccinated.

In July 2021, unvaccinated people had 15x the risk of death compared to the vaccinated. By March 2022 (most recent available), it had fallen to 10x the risk. In July 2021, 17% of deaths were vaccinated. In Mar 2022, it's almost half.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I mentioned it before but my wife got COVID on a training meeting in Indiana. She came back and our protocol was she masked anytime she was indoors, we ate outside, we slept in separate rooms, etc. I did not get it.

Cut forward 2 weeks. My team at work is hosting a team bonding event. People flying in from all over the country on July 4th weekend. Having just seen one go wrong...I declined to go. Today more than 75% of our team are testing positive for COVID. So fucking stupid.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

hitbyambulance wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:37 pm i ordered a 3M half-face elastomer respirator (6502QL, medium size) with P100 cartridges from cyberweld.com . i had ordered one last year, but i stupidly had it sent to the wrong address and i never got it!

i think i want one of these and will wear it to every concert i go to: https://www.etsy.com/listing/897416653/ ... hield-face combine that with a respirator, and i think i'm good
The problem with that respirator is that it has an unfiltered exhalation valve.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Max Peck wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 12:45 pm The problem with that respirator is that it has an unfiltered exhalation valve.
That was important when everyone else was also wearing a mask. If you're the only person wearing a mask? You're not making the situation any worse by wearing a mask that has an exhalation valve.

If you want to be a mensch, you could put a surgical mask over it, but I'd be under no illusion I was helping in a practical sense.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 12:57 pm
Max Peck wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 12:45 pm The problem with that respirator is that it has an unfiltered exhalation valve.
That was important when everyone else was also wearing a mask. If you're the only person wearing a mask? You're not making the situation any worse by wearing a mask that has an exhalation valve.

If you want to be a mensch, you could put a surgical mask over it, but I'd be under no illusion I was helping in a practical sense.
Maybe, assuming that you're not a asymptomatic carrier and/or don't care about infecting others if you are, but there are elastomeric masks available now that don't have exhalation valves, such as this one.

Personally, I prefer FFP3 disposable masks. The filtration is virtually on par with a P100 respirator, they provide a good seal and I find that they're much more comfortable if I have to wear them for an extended period of time.

Still, an elastomeric mask does make a strong fashion statement...
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

USA! USA!


After >2 years of COVID, this is where we are.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Lots of people sharing data collected by (looks at notes) Walgreens regarding the positivity rates they're seeing. For example, Illinois:


Walgreens positivity data Summer surge worse than the winter surge.

What's even more interesting here is that for most of the winter surge, we didnt have access to at home test, while for the summer surge many are testing at home. So the test positivity rate is likely much higher
Katie Porter and Chuck Schumer tested positive in the last day. We need to collectively ignore this harder folks!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

At this point, I don't even know what to say anymore. The minimizers got what they wanted, the world got this:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Still a ways to go to get back to our coveted position of #1 in the world. USA! USA! USA!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

Nice to see we didn't have that nasty dip that all those other countries went through.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

stessier wrote: Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:48 am Nice to see we didn't have that nasty dip that all those other countries went through.
I was going to say the same thing. I wonder if it's that effect we see here where it just sloshes around the country.

Edit: Expanding out the scale helps to see why. Our curve was "out of phase". We have a much higher winter peak than most (except for Denmark in this data set). FWIW the clustering here is really interesting. If only we knew how to mitigate something happening everywhere... :think: :doh:

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I think so, yes - we're just raising the baseline level of slosh. I've been told it will continue like this forever because it is a sustainable approach.

Hospitalizations are over a 1000 again in NJ. That is December 2021 energy for us if the trend continues.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

96%!


96% of the US has high or substantial COVID transmission, yet still no call for masks in indoor public places. Maybe CDC’s new threshold for mitigation is 99%.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

That's the 'we don't use that anymore' map, though. So the # is irrelevant, I gather.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

It's at 99% today. I genuinely believe I am in hell.

Speaking of which, we have one treatment left in the old back of tricks. Not good.


We're down to 1 effective monoclonal antibody Rx"only one that has shown remarkably preserved in vitro activity against all #SARSCoV2 variants, including the omicron variant and the most recent BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants that are now becoming dominant."
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I was driving back from downtown thinking what the expressway would look like after the COVID apocalypse. Thinking of Days Gone.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

For sure. Lots of cars filled with people in business attire. Because I'm pretty sure they're going to tell us we need to keep working no matter what's coming next.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

When self-driving cars become mainstream, people will die in them and still be delivered to their destinations.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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