Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Pyperkub »

New, apparently immunity- evading omicron variant taking hold it appears....

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/health/c ... index.html

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Sorry, I missed this, juggling too many threads. :)

Yeah, we're watching (well, "watching") to see what's happening. With our data sources all funked up I think we're down to wastewater monitoring (good) and hospital/ICU use (bad) to try and discern what's happening. As I mentioned on the other side of the fence, XBB.1.5 is surging in NE but cases are also rising (not XBB1.5) in the midwest and south. I guess it will be interesting to see (if I can still use that term to describe what people are being involuntarily exposed to) what happens if XBB.1.5 moves around to other parts of the U.S. in the coming weeks or if it surges much later - March or April in other areas as the pandemic spread continues to "slosh" around America like water in a tub.

Unrelated, but this thread had me pause in my tracks:


This may be the most important graph of the pandemic so far.
Hazard ratios are probabilities of an event happening in comparison to a control group. Basically, the more times someone in the Veterans Affairs Program had COVID-19, the higher the chances of them experiencing some type of specific medical event in comparison to a control.

Now, this was for a population of veterans not the general population so I'd hesitate to make a 1:1 comparison. However, it does suggest that perhaps in older people, having repeated infections puts them at increased risk for complications. The study was covering a little under a half a million people, so in terms of study design, it's quite large (I'd expect good data). I mentioned this study earlier (like back in November) but now that more cases are likely, it's this kind of study that really gives me pause - because more people are going to become infected and for many, it's not their first time.

I'm not aware of specific studies for the general population or even children but I'd be amazed if they weren't being run.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Great (and easy to read) article on XBB.1.5:
XBB.1.5 combines some interesting properties. Like the other scrabble variants, it has mutations that cause the virus and its spike protein to partially escape the neutralizing antibodies created by exposure to past variants or the initial vaccines. The game-changer, however, is that XBB.1.5 also has mutations, including one in the 486 amino acid position, to allow the virus to interact more with the ACE-2 receptor found in our cardiopulmonary system and adipose tissue.

This second feature could confer a higher degree of transmissibility of the virus relative to the other scrabble variants—and thus may account for its new dominance. On Wednesday, the World Health Organization’s Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove was blunt in stating that XBB.1.5 “is the most transmissible subvariant that has been detected yet.”
Note:
XBB.1.5 is not necessarily more virulent—that is, inclined to cause serious illness—compared to other other scrabble variants. But it represents a dual threat by having the potential to partially escape past immunity (whether because of infection or vaccination), together with its unprecedented levels of transmissibility or contagiousness.
On being current with your vaccinations:
There are several pieces of evidence from early epidemiological studies or studies in the laboratory that point to the importance of getting your bivalent booster.

First, at the end of October, the CDC issued data showing that those who were vaccinated and received a bivalent booster had an 18.6 times lower risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to those who were unvaccinated.

The death rates among those boosted with the bivalent booster look only slightly better than those who did not get the bivalent, and the studies were conducted before the widespread emergence of XBB.1.5. But there’s more.

CDC data shows (again, pre-XBB.1.5) that among adults 65 and older, the bivalent booster dose “provided 73 percent additional protection against COVID-19 hospitalization” compared with those who received 2 or more doses of the mRNA vaccine made versus the original Chinese lineage. The bivalent booster also provided “additional protection against COVID-19-associated emergency department/urgent care encounters and hospitalizations in persons who previously received 2,3, or 4 monovalent vaccine doses,” according to the CDC.
It's not too late; get a bivalent booster if you haven't done so already an are eligible!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:50 pm

Unrelated, but this thread had me pause in my tracks:


This may be the most important graph of the pandemic so far.
Hazard ratios are probabilities of an event happening in comparison to a control group. Basically, the more times someone in the Veterans Affairs Program had COVID-19, the higher the chances of them experiencing some type of specific medical event in comparison to a control.

Now, this was for a population of veterans not the general population so I'd hesitate to make a 1:1 comparison. However, it does suggest that perhaps in older people, having repeated infections puts them at increased risk for complications. The study was covering a little under a half a million people, so in terms of study design, it's quite large (I'd expect good data). I mentioned this study earlier (like back in November) but now that more cases are likely, it's this kind of study that really gives me pause - because more people are going to become infected and for many, it's not their first time.

I'm not aware of specific studies for the general population or even children but I'd be amazed if they weren't being run.



Aren't many of those conditions also risk factors in severity of infection and possibly even infection? It's a striking correlation but it's premature to say that reinfection absolutely causes them (other than hospitalization). It may be that people with or in onset of those conditions are more likely to be infected and/or show symptoms that lead to testing.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I think it's hard to draw any specific conclusions outside of the ~500K sample group that was used in the study - largely white, largely above the age of 65, largely male. It suggests for some there is potentially a connection between repeated exposure and risk of complications, but I wouldn't run with that across all populations. And to further clarify, it's not that X causes Y. Here, the study is demonstrating that having X puts people at various levels of increased risk for developing [A, B, C, D, E] upon subsequent exposure; it's the nature of the study and how they're looking at data (retrospectively). As you've pointed out there are lots of potential confounding factors. I didn't dig through the design to see how they addressed them specifically. If we could somehow follow populations from exposure for the next 5+ years and see how they fare, that would give us a better measure (rate vs ratio) and allow epidemiologists to directly connect exposure to specific risks.

So yes, the follow up (study) should be to find out if this trend continues in the general population. Better - specific populations (age, demographics, etc...) across America and likely globally.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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'Big uptick' in Ottawa's coronavirus wastewater levels in recent days
Levels of coronavirus in Ottawa's wastewater are comparable to last January when the Omicron subvariant was at its first peak, some experts say. 

"We're seeing a big uptick," said Tyson Graber, associate scientist at the CHEO Research Institute and co-lead investigator on the COVID-19 wastewater project in Ottawa. 

According to the data, the SARS COV-2 signal in Ottawa's wastewater roughly doubled between the third and fourth weeks of December, Graber said.

While Graber said the new XBB.1.5 COVID-19 subvariant likely isn't in the nation's capital in large quantities, it does remain a cause for concern. 

But what's likely driving the high levels, according to preliminary data, is the BQ.1.1 subvariant that appears to have entered Ottawa in November and spread through holiday celebrations, Graber said. 

But while BQ.1.1 may be responsible for what brought us here, some experts believe XBB.1.5 — a mutated version of Omicron — could "outcompete" other subvariants with its already rapid rise in the U.S.
Conveniently, they weren't publishing the wastewater data for those couple of weeks when it was climbing. :coffee:

My Instacart Index is also indicating that things are heating up. Normally the interval between submitting an order and it being accepted by a shopper is a matter of 5-10 minutes, but this week it's more like an hour.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

HHS OIG Report on 2021 lab spedning for Part B. Confirms a lot.

The COVID-19 pandemic continued to have an impact on Medicare Part B spending on lab tests. Spending on COVID-19 tests increased in 2021, driven by more people receiving more tests. However, the decline between pre-pandemic levels for chemistry tests and the 2020 and 2021 levels could indicate that people are not seeking the routine or preventive care appointments where these tests are ordered. The second year in a row of low volume for chemistry tests raises questions about the pandemic's long-term impact on Medicare enrollee health.

Keep in mind, this is just lab spending just for Medicare, and just for Part B. Doesn't include all other Medicare, MA, Medicaid, and commercial payments. But it is probably representative.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Pyperkub »

Mask Mandates and testing requirements in schools coming back
More schools across the United States are putting mask mandates in place as COVID-19 cases continue to rise.

Before winter break, districts in New Jersey and Pennsylvania announced they would temporarily be requiring masks among students and staff members amid a surge of respiratory illnesses.

Now schools in Massachusetts and Michigan are following suit while Chicago schools are asking students to take rapid tests before classes start.
It would be nice if the article indicated whether they are requiring N95 masks, but they should be given that the Omicron variants ignore the other masks...
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue Jan 10, 2023 1:34 pm Mask Mandates and testing requirements in schools coming back
More schools across the United States are putting mask mandates in place as COVID-19 cases continue to rise.

Before winter break, districts in New Jersey and Pennsylvania announced they would temporarily be requiring masks among students and staff members amid a surge of respiratory illnesses.

Now schools in Massachusetts and Michigan are following suit while Chicago schools are asking students to take rapid tests before classes start.
It would be nice if the article indicated whether they are requiring N95 masks, but they should be given that the Omicron variants ignore the other masks...
No way they mandate N95. It may be the best course but would never happen.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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They are not going to require N95. Even among the people that care, they don’t really care.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Broadly, they'd look to state and local guidance - which again should be modeled after what the CDC is publishing:
Further information about types of masks and respirators, including those that meet standards and the degree of protection offered to the wearer, is available at: Masks and Respirators (cdc.gov)
The language always comes back to the mask that fits the needs of the individual wearing it - which is exactly how we do things for occupational safety and health as well. It's why you see some firefighters run into a burning building wearing nothing and others are wearing SCBA. You do you.

But seriously, surgical masks should be the new minimum and schools can and should be providing those for free to anyone that needs them. If everyone wore surgical masks when cases were surging, it would not only help everyone but it would also decrease the chances that the one kid in your school still wearing an n95 (mine) will get it - because one way masking is less effective. Again, trying to get away from binary thinking - all masks help; some help more than others.

Requiring an n95 for any school kids (even high school) would likely be problematic. They're not fun to wear and I'd imagine the head bands would dramatically increase parent complaints and lawsuits. But a surgical mask? In theory, that should be easy enough to defend (and support). Yet I know it's now verboten.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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My understanding is that N95s generally aren't designed for kids.
Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 10, 2023 1:58 pm It's why you see some firefighters run into a burning building wearing nothing
Well, when you get a five alarm fire in the middle of doing the Sexy Firefighter Calendar photoshoot... :wink:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Defiant wrote: Tue Jan 10, 2023 3:38 pm My understanding is that N95s generally aren't designed for kids.
No, but there are companies that make child-sized N95-grade masks, although I don't know if any are actually NIOSH certified. For example: Children's CAN99e - Earloop Version
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, and even going with the idea that there are better options, the KN94 style masks with ear loops could be a "middle ground" alternative - better than cloth masks, more comfortable than an n95.

In other news, this might be the best "state of the union" summary I've read in a while:
Like Omicron prime, XBB.1.5 is going to nail a lot of people who have been pretty careful. Vaccines and previous infections are unlikely to keep you from getting covid right now, but we do expect that immunity from shots and infections will protect against severe disease.

This is the time to kick up your air filtration and fresh air circulation in offices and classrooms, upgrade your masks to high-filtration and make sure they fit well (if you want/need to be hardcore, Flo masks are worth a look, and you can do fit-testing at home with Sweet N Low and a trash bag). If you can’t avoid being indoors with unmasked/cloth-masked people, this is a great moment for the best mask you can get. Also a good time to switch back to grocery pickups, etc.

XBB.1.5 isn’t evenly distributed, so you’ll want to watch your local hospitalization and wastewater data (if you have it) to see how your local curve is playing out. (Here are the relevant bits of my recent emails on using hospitalization and wastewater data.) I try not to be pushy here but truly, do not rely on case counts. They’re useless right now because of at-home testing.

If you get covid and you’re up to date on vax and in stable health, you’re probably going to get through the acute infection just fine—and at the same time, it’s still worth avoiding additional infections when you can, because unlike our common seasonal viruses, each covid infection increases the risk of long-term damage. (Also, after the November and December we just had, who wants to get sick again? No one.)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I went to the theater last weekend. Not movies, but a Broadway production, so definitely a more affluent/intelligent crowd.

One mask despite many, many signs recommending them.

While I appreciate the crusade, it's a waste of time. Society doesn't want masks.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:45 am While I appreciate the crusade, it's a waste of time. Society doesn't want masks.
This is simply not true - but it's something that keeps getting repeated to help justify why there aren't mask policies in place. Data from last month (with earlier survey data):

Enlarge Image

People are looking to leaders in their community (primarily state and local) and following suit. A significant number of people will wear masks if they see some magic number of people already wearing them, but because that's not happening the myth of "nobody wants masks" continues. It's like we're stuck in some new type of weird Abilene Paradox variant.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:45 am I went to the theater last weekend. Not movies, but a Broadway production, so definitely a more affluent/intelligent crowd.

One mask despite many, many signs recommending them.

While I appreciate the crusade, it's a waste of time. Society doesn't want masks.
Maybe it's just that people that people who think it's a good idea to go to a Broadway show (i.e. they're at XBB.1.5 ground zero) right now don't want masks (or at least don't want to appear to want masks). :think:

I also wouldn't assume that just because someone is affluent enough to be able to afford Broadway tickets that they're necessarily all that intelligent. There are plenty of well-to-do idiots.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Yes, idiots are well known for their appreciation for Broadway theater.

Smoove, I agree with you, but the politicians don't, so we're stuck in the same spot.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

And speaking of perception, this is an excellent piece, written in response to the New Yorker piece from a few weeks ago:
A flurry of pieces in mainstream, prestige media outlets like The New Yorker, The New York Times, and The Washington Post—followed by some admiring posts on social media from clinicians who should know better—took things a few steps further at the end of 2022. These commentators suggested that those who refuse to forget, move on, and stop paying attention to the pandemic are “holdouts,” “hardliners,” adherents to a “fringe politics”—and, an appellation almost too silly to write, “communists.” The implication is that people who still care—or care too much—are beyond the pale, and also, perhaps, harboring a touch of danger in what they represent.

The writers of these stories all situate themselves as speaking for the vast center. As writers, they are a people without politics, with an avowed and insistent neutrality seemingly conferred on them by their profession, and by the publications they write for, which seek fairness and objectivity—always an excuse for what Joan Didion called “a good deal of autopilot reporting and lazy thinking.” But this kind of worldview also tracks with what organizer Aaron Huertas has labeled “reactionary centrism,” an ideology of sorts held by “someone who says they’re politically neutral, but who usually punches left while sympathizing with the right.” Historian Thomas Zimmer has used this idea to explain what is happening in American politics right now as a “fever dream of reactionary centrism: A center-right re-alignment of American politics, all in the name of defending democracy against Trump—while also upholding the traditional order against the forces of multiracial pluralism.” The current moment in Covid-19 journalism and commentary and in the wider politics of the pandemic fit well within this frame.
After dismantling the New Yorker article:
With Green’s article in The New Yorker, Amy Harmon’s piece on “The Last Holdouts” in The New York Times, and Megan McArdle bemoaning “fringe politics” around public health in her “Welcome 2023, the first year of the post-pandemic era” in The Washington Post all coming together at the end of 2022, it’s clear that our rulers want us to forget, care less, stop worrying, and learn to love the virus. Like the GOP in Congress, which blocked any new programmatic Covid-19 funding in the year-end appropriations bill, they insist we’ve done enough already, so please, stop asking for more—particularly from us! The right and the “sensible” center chorus in unison—just as the XBB1.5 variant arrives to ramp up infections and hospitalizations for another potential surge.
I suspect at the end he's giving away the plot - as the new Congress is setting up to begin whatever they're going to call their COVID-19 select committee as they try and pin specific elements of what happened (and what's happening) on individuals.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:54 am Yes, idiots are well known for their appreciation for Broadway theater.

Smoove, I agree with you, but the politicians don't, so we're stuck in the same spot.
And the affluent are well known for volunteering to be inconvenienced.

Still I agree with conclusion. Society doesn't want masks. We're seeing spikes and warnings and increases recommendations and a flood of people coming in from China (and the US NE) with new XBB.1.5 infections and while mask wearing is up, it's up from me and an elderly black lady at most places to a noticeable few of us and even an occasional employee at some places.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

People are mostly followers. If they go into a theater and nearly one is wearing masks, they'll not wear a mask. If they walk in and nearly everyone is wearing a mask, they'll mask up It's a proven psychological trait.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:54 am Yes, idiots are well known for their appreciation for Broadway theater.
I mean, they're herding up in an indoor venue swapping respiratory goo with indifference to the fact that XBB.1.5 excels at evading existing immunity, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

Max Peck wrote:
noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:54 am Yes, idiots are well known for their appreciation for Broadway theater.
I mean, they're herding up in an indoor venue swapping respiratory goo with indifference to the fact that XBB.1.5 excels at evading existing immunity, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So, this time it's the end of the world?

Or is it the vast majority of people don't agree with your risk assessment?

Houston has about 1/2 a million kids in school. One visit to the theater doesn't really rate as a major threat vector.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:39 am So, this time it's the end of the world?

Or is it the vast majority of people don't agree with your risk assessment?

Houston has about 1/2 a million kids in school. One visit to the theater doesn't really rate as a major threat vector.
And one visit to the theatre doesn't make someone particularly intelligent. :coffee:

But that's beside the point. The behaviour of a self-selected group of people (those who decided to attend a "Broadway" show unmasked) tells us nothing about the attitudes toward masking in the general population. Otherwise, we could poll the attendees of a Trump fund-raising event and conclude that it is the will of the American people that he be appointed President for life.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Max Peck wrote:
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:39 am So, this time it's the end of the world?

Or is it the vast majority of people don't agree with your risk assessment?

Houston has about 1/2 a million kids in school. One visit to the theater doesn't really rate as a major threat vector.
And one visit to the theatre doesn't make someone particularly intelligent. :coffee:

But that's beside the point. The behaviour of a self-selected group of people (those who decided to attend a "Broadway" show unmasked) tells us nothing about the attitudes toward masking in the general population. Otherwise, we could poll the attendees of a Trump fund-raising event and conclude that it is the will of the American people that he be appointed President for life.
Come now.

If there were a group of people that were significantly pro-masking I don't think it's a stretch to figure they would be liberal and educated.

I also don't think it's unreasonable to assume the attendance at a Broadway Across America show fits the same profile. I mean, suits and ties were way more common than boots, big belt buckles, and flannel.

When the masking percentage was < 1% I think it's reasonably noteworthy.

To your analogy, it's more like ignoring the trump rally because nobody could possibly choose trump as a leader of anything except nonsense and grift.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Jan 12, 2023 11:52 am If there were a group of people that were significantly pro-masking I don't think it's a stretch to figure they would be liberal and educated.
More accurately, you're seeing the impacts of neoliberalism as it interacts with public health - and guess what? They don't mix.

There's also the interplay between race and likelihood of wearing masks, namely that white people are less likely to wear them than any other group, reinforced by the messaging that COVID-19 has been disproportionately impacting minority populations from the get-go.

So no, it doesn't surprise me to hear that (mostly) white people (going with attendance demographics for Broadway shows) with disposable income are all looking at each other at a social event and not feeling the need to mask.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jan 12, 2023 12:10 pm There's also the interplay between race and likelihood of wearing masks, namely that white people are less likely to wear them than any other group, reinforced by the messaging that COVID-19 has been disproportionately impacting minority populations from the get-go.

So no, it doesn't surprise me to hear that (mostly) white people (going with attendance demographics for Broadway shows) with disposable income are all looking at each other at a social event and not feeling the need to mask.

This confirms my bias so your observations reflecting mine must invoke a greater truth.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

As we inch closer to 600 deaths a day, everything is fine.

Image

Not sure if we'll hit 15K deaths for January of 2023, but I guess because it's not the same as January of 2022 everything is super.

I do keep wondering when that Long COVID wave is going to kick in and people are going to realize we're in big, big trouble.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

They'll just blame the sick for malingering.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

At the risk of being even more depressing, I'm just seeing this from last month:
A new study in the Annals of Internal Medicine shows a dramatic shift in deaths during the second year of the pandemic, when compared to the first.

While there were 75,000 fewer deaths in 2021 than there were in 2020, there were far more years of life lost to COVID-19, the research found. That’s because the median age at which people died of the illness dropped by nearly a decade, meaning many of those who succumbed were missing out on more potential years of life.

...

"We found that the median age at which people were dying decreased by nearly a decade, down from 78 years in 2020 to 69 years in 2021. That's kind of astonishing."
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

Isgrimnur wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:35 pm They'll just blame the sick for malingering.
Nah, we'll blame public health workers for failing to protect us.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Image
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

There's a new round of OpEds hitting major news outlets regarding the the number of COVID deaths, namely the that we're counting to many. I suppose when you make money off minimizing, you need to come up with a new way to grift, but thankfully there's already been a quick response:
If the claim were true, by the way, it would have fairly important implications. Instead, the entire column hinges on a couple of infectious diseases doctors who have not looked at all-cause mortality data, making claims based on anecdote, without offering a single piece of data. One of the experts seems to think that because it’s possible for medical examiners to add Covid to a death certificate when reviewing a death, that this means it is happening so much that we’re overcounting. There’s no indication that is happening at any significant rate. And remember: if it were happening, what’s the first thing we’d see? More Covid deaths than all-cause excess deaths. Do we see that? Nope.

In fact the gap between deaths blamed on Covid-19 and all-cause excess deaths— evidence that we are probably undercounting Covid deaths—became a bit of a puzzle to my team in recent months, after White House officials asked us to look under the hood on this. In the fall of 2021, our most basic analysis would suggest that Covid-19 could only be responsible for 64% (1,058/1,652) of the excess mortality in adults over 50 in Massachusetts (we choose to look at older adults to factor out most of the increases from non-medical causes such as accidental overdoses; if you think about it carefully, doing that hurts our case, but it’s more honest in this situation). In the fall of 2022, Covid-19 deaths could only be responsible for 71% (970/1,358) of excess mortality.
It's an extension of the from/with COVID death arguments that popped up last year and I'm kinda surprised it's coming back again. Although considering our focus now on hospitalizations and deaths due to the complete lack of testing, I guess if the goal is to chip away at data, it makes sense. All that is left now is to maybe go after wastewater surveillance?

Anyway, minimizers gonna minimize.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Pyperkub »

Here we go again...


Northwestern’s game at Iowa tonight has been postponed. Northwestern only has 6 available players due to COVID, source told @Stadium
.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by WYBaugh »

Almost made it 3 years without catching covid. Started feeling like a cold coming on yesterday and tested today...3 positives :(
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Oy. I'm afraid to ask if you're able to get access to Paxlovid based on where you live...
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Unrelated, but the info being spliced together about China? Yikes.
Daily Infections: 4.57 million
Daily deaths: 32,200
Cumulative cases since 1st December: 99.5 million
Cumulative deaths since 1st December: 608,000
Projections:
In our updated model, cases could peak at 4.8 million a day with 62 million infections predicted across a fortnight between 13th-27th January before beginning to fall.

Deaths are forecast to peak at 36,000 a day on the 26th of January during the Lunar New Year Festival. This is up from our previous estimate of deaths peaking at 25,000 a day. 
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

IDK how many here remember Odin, but he's suffering from a bad case of the covid. He just started Paxlovid today. If you can get it, WYB, it's most effective when started early.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Double ugh. I wondered if he was still around - I guess on social media? That's terrible news to hear.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:50 pm Unrelated, but the info being spliced together about China? Yikes.
Daily Infections: 4.57 million
Daily deaths: 32,200
Cumulative cases since 1st December: 99.5 million
Cumulative deaths since 1st December: 608,000
Projections:
In our updated model, cases could peak at 4.8 million a day with 62 million infections predicted across a fortnight between 13th-27th January before beginning to fall.

Deaths are forecast to peak at 36,000 a day on the 26th of January during the Lunar New Year Festival. This is up from our previous estimate of deaths peaking at 25,000 a day. 
Yikes. China hit a demographic milestone last year, when its population shrank by 850,000. They don't need a mass die-off this year.
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