Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

Charlie Baker is on board with up to 20 other governors who are developing a standard vaccine passport, which is basically an app with a QR code. I'd venture out in public again if I could be sure that the unvaxxed were excluded.

As someone currently using Docket (and by using I mean it's on my phone with my info), it's about as painless as can be. But I'm also anti-freedom, so you can't really trust what I recommend.

[Drazzil]

So that last reversal of phrase may require some explanation. When a troubling object, or a portion of an object is passed from a cat. You're happy it's out but you wonder what *else* the cat got into.

The else in this case could be a variant with a higher fatality rate, or higher rate of long covid... etc.

We had a chance to stop this thing, and we failed. Now the bags outta the cat but I'm still nervous about the next covid.

[malchior]

Charlie Baker is on board with up to 20 other governors who are developing a standard vaccine passport, which is basically an app with a QR code. I'd venture out in public again if I could be sure that the unvaxxed were excluded.

As someone currently using Docket (and by using I mean it's on my phone with my info), it's about as painless as can be. But I'm also anti-freedom, so you can't really trust what I recommend.

Docket has been fine for me until it isn't. Usually when someone expects to see it for entry to something and you'll hold up an entire line. It's happened to me three times. Shrug. It's still way better than carrying a card around.

[malchior]

Today a prosperity huckster who ran a Christian-based anti-vax campaign on his fraud network died from COVID. I'm all broken up about his karmic death.

[Jolor]

"When your shoulders were bruised, it was then that I was trying to shake some sense into you. When there was but one set of footprints in the sand, it was then that I left you, for you were so far up your ass that I could not help."

[wonderpug]

What I’m getting so far on Omicron is that it either is or is not a big deal.

[Kraken]

What I’m getting so far on Omicron is that it either is or is not a big deal.

Science can work fast when it has to, but it's never internet-fast.

[LordMortis]

What I’m getting so far on Omicron is that it either is or is not a big deal.

That's my takeaway. Masks and isolation are my response until they know more in "2 to 4 weeks as they gather data on the effectiveness of vaccinations and treatments". So nothing changes.

I take that back. Nothing changes from my existing winter prepper plans. As part of my quick shop, I bought 36 eggs and 10 pounds of potatoes yesterday. I'm going to make Costco run soon. That will likely be most of my grocery shopping for December. I'm buying staples that hold in bulk again. That may actually become my new winter normal.

[Daehawk]

So about 800,000 dead in the US alone is it?

[Drazzil]

Today a prosperity huckster who ran a Christian-based anti-vax campaign on his fraud network died from COVID. I'm all broken up about his karmic death.

OMFG this dude actually runs a christian network by the name of Daystar?

Isn't Daystar a name for Satan?

[Drazzil]

It's really been sinking in for me over the last 5 days or so, that this is going to be life now - all time is going to be measured between variants and we'll see what happens as each new one emerges. Why? Because of (1) how long it's going to take to vaccinate the planet to some important unknown base level and more critically, (2) the general population is not interested in lowering circulating virus levels via masking (or any other strategy).

If we know a significant number of people aren't vaccinated and that even vaccinated people can spread the virus under the right conditions, I'm struggling to understand the lack of masking, ventilation improvements, encouraging crowded indoor activities with strangers etc... while an airborne virus continues to spread.

This is beyond giving up. It makes me question whether or not we'll be able to do anything requiring social cooperation anymore.

Hey, we got rid of buffets, what more do you want?


*Touches earpiece*

Wait, we didn't get rid of buffets? Well, I guess that makes sense, how else can you serve that many people indoors with labor shortages?


We gave up buffets for months and months. What more do you want?

OMFG I miss buffets.

I mean they're out there still but who would eat at one?

[LawBeefaroni]

Markets just leeegd down on rumor that first confirmed case of omicron has hit US. Are we back in March 2020 now?

[El Guapo]

Markets just leeegd down on rumor that first confirmed case of omicron has hit US. Are we back in March 2020 now?

I think everything on omicron is "too soon to say" but I think it's very likely that we're in March 2020, assuming a scenario where the vaccines do nothing against it. It could be that vaccine efficacy goes down for omicron, though I don't think there's any reason to think it would go down to 0 or immaterial protection.

[LordMortis]

I think everything on omicron is "too soon to say" but I think it's very likely that we're in March 2020, assuming a scenario where the vaccines do nothing against it. It could be that vaccine efficacy goes down for omicron, though I don't think there's any reason to think it would go down to 0 or immaterial protection.

Talking heads said 2-4 weeks to really have enough data compiled to know but early reports out of Israel show vaccine is as effective on Omicron while medicated treatments, such as Regeneron, are less effective and need to be reworked.

[Drazzil]

I think everything on omicron is "too soon to say" but I think it's very likely that we're in March 2020, assuming a scenario where the vaccines do nothing against it. It could be that vaccine efficacy goes down for omicron, though I don't think there's any reason to think it would go down to 0 or immaterial protection.

Talking heads said 2-4 weeks to really have enough data compiled to know but early reports out of Israel show vaccine is as effective on Omicron while medicated treatments, such as Regeneron, are less effective and need to be reworked.

[Smoove_B]

Just based on the reading I'm doing today, my guess is we're going to see that boostered folks are largely fine. It's going to be the unvaccinated (including people with prior COVID that are claiming they're protected) and people with 2 doses ages 25-50, 6+ months out from their last shot that are going to feel the pressure of this variant. It will be more interesting to see how America responds to a Delta/Omicron double shot, happening back to back (potentially) depending on how transmissible it is.

And yeah, it's here

Breaking: The first confirmed case of #OmicronVariant has been detected in the United States. Everyone 5 years and older should get vaccinated against #COVID19. Boosters are recommended for everyone 18 years and older. Read CDC's full statement.

[El Guapo]

It will be more interesting to see how America responds to a Delta/Omicron double shot, happening back to back (potentially) depending on how transmissible it is.

No doubt logically and reasonably.

[Isgrimnur]

Had a nice conversation with a colleague on Monday about vaccination. She and her husband are from rural Texas and have two boys. Oh, and her LEO husband caught it from his partner and had to be hospitalized. His partner died from it. And it was still an uphill battle to try and convince her that the whole family needs to be vaccinated.

[coopasonic]

And it was still an uphill battle to try and convince her that the whole family needs to be vaccinated.

Good on you for trying. I would have walked away.

[Smoove_B]

Had a nice conversation with a colleague on Monday about vaccination. She and her husband are from rural Texas and have two boys. Oh, and her LEO husband caught it from his partner and had to be hospitalized. His partner died from it. And it was still an uphill battle to try and convince her that the whole family needs to be vaccinated.

Don't assume they're actually vaccinated - she might just be telling you what she thinks you want to hear. I know of at least two different people that told my parents they were vaccinated early on, but only just recently slipped and said they were vaccinated in the last few months. These were people that were trying to get my parents to socialize and reassured them it was safe because everyone was vaccinated.

I don't know how my parents are still speaking with them; I don't know how to tell them their friends are sociopaths.

[Smoove_B]

No doubt logically and reasonably.

Like a travel ban to and from California (where it was found)? It really is March 2020 all over again.

[El Guapo]

Had a nice conversation with a colleague on Monday about vaccination. She and her husband are from rural Texas and have two boys. Oh, and her LEO husband caught it from his partner and had to be hospitalized. His partner died from it. And it was still an uphill battle to try and convince her that the whole family needs to be vaccinated.

Don't assume they're actually vaccinated - she might just be telling you what she thinks you want to hear. I know of at least two different people that told my parents they were vaccinated early on, but only just recently slipped and said they were vaccinated in the last few months. These were people that were trying to get my parents to socialize and reassured them it was safe because everyone was vaccinated.

I don't know how my parents are still speaking with them; I don't know how to tell them their friends are sociopaths.

My brother in law told at least some people in the family that we was vaccinated back around May, but we learned recently that he apparently only got vaccinated a couple months ago (assuming that he's telling the truth now). My other brother in law apparently has an anti-vax girlfriend, and apparently got vaccinated behind her back recently. Though I've raised with the family the question of whether he might be lying to us instead of to her.

Also, what is an "LEO husband"?

[coopasonic]

Also, what is an "LEO husband"?

LEO - Law Enforcement Officer

[gbasden]

Also, what is an "LEO husband"?

Law Enforcement Officer, I assumed?

[El Guapo]

Also, what is an "LEO husband"?

LEO - Law Enforcement Officer

ahhh, gotcha. I was confused by the "from his partner" part, but that makes sense.

[Alefroth]

Markets just leeegd down on rumor that first confirmed case of omicron has hit US. Are we back in March 2020 now?

I don't understand this. It's not like things were just peachy with Delta. Why the fear of a new variant when the old one isn't done kicking our ass.

[Smoove_B]

I don't understand this. It's not like things were just peachy with Delta. Why the fear of a new variant when the old one isn't done kicking our ass.

Because the new variant is no longer a theoretical - something we've been warning about; it now exists and is actively circulating. Delta is kicking our ass in predicable ways - ways we've apparently come to accept. Now we wait and see what this new variant has in store. It's rather interesting - many have observed all kinds of bot accounts on Twitter broadcasting that the new variant is harmless, but hospitalization data in places where it's been identified tell a different story.

We'll know soon enough.

[Smoove_B]

MA update:

BREAKING: Massachusetts health officials report another 4,838 confirmed COVID-19 cases — the most in one day since January — and 25 new deaths, as several metrics continue surging.

[Kraken]

BREAKING: Massachusetts health officials report another 4,838 confirmed COVID-19 cases — the most in one day since January — and 25 new deaths, as several metrics continue surging.

Omicron: "Hold my beer."

Cases are surging; hospitalizations aren't following in lockstep yet. 81% of us have at least one shot, 71% are fully vaxxed, and people are getting boosted as fast as facilities can handle them. We're about to find out just how much good that does.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, NJ's numbers jumped today too - cases, hospitalizations and ICU beds. t's blowing my mind there are still people in my state getting COVID-19 at such a high rate. If only there was something they could do.

In other news:

Minnesota confirms state's first omicron variant case of COVID-19 | INFORUM

The individual attended an anime convention in NYC (the internet is telling me it was held between 11/19 and 11/21).

Once again reinforcing (1) travel bans are largely useless and (2) we're not doing enough monitoring to look for variants. It's likely been here longer than we are willing to acknowledge.

[El Guapo]

Biden announces winter COVID policies.

The part that caught my eye was the expansion of at home testing:

Expanding Free At-Home Testing for Americans: Today, the President will announce new steps to ensure that Americans has access to free at-home testing. First, the more than 150 million Americans with private insurance – who now are able to get tests covered in physician offices, pharmacies, and clinics with no cost sharing – will also be able to get at-home tests reimbursed by their insurance. Second, for those not covered by private insurance, in addition to more than 20,000 federally-supported free testing sites across the U.S., at-home tests will be distributed through key community sites, such as health centers and rural clinics. The Biden Administration has taken significant steps to increase testing in the country since January. We are on track to quadruple the supply of rapid at-home tests that we had in late-Summer. Today’s actions will help Americans access the tests they need to help them stop the spread of COVID-19 to others.

Providing health plan coverage of no-cost rapid, over-the-counter (OTC) COVID-19 tests: To expand access and affordability of at-home COVID-19 tests, the Departments of Health and Human Services, Labor and the Treasury will issue guidance by January 15th to clarify that individuals who purchase OTC COVID-19 diagnostic tests will be able to seek reimbursement from their group health plan or health insurance issuer and have insurance cover the cost during the public health emergency. Workplace screening would remain consistent with current guidance. Today’s announcement follows the President’s September action directing more than $2 billion to accelerate the production of rapid tests and an additional $1 billion investment in procuring at-home tests. Over the same time period, FDA authorized five additional over-the-counter tests. A total of 8 tests are on the market today; no test was on the market when the President took office.

Expanding community distribution of free at-home tests through neighborhood sites such as health centers and rural clinics: To ensure equitable access to free at-home tests for our uninsured and underserved communities, the President will double the commitment from September to distribute 25 million free tests to community sites to 50 million tests and will add rural clinics to the program. Partnerships with trusted community providers will aid in getting these important testing supplies into the homes of our hardest-hit communities.

The bolded part is quite the caveat, though, due to our government being structured in a way that it can't easily do anything to help people. Per the NYT this reimbursement plan won't be retroactive, and I guess the guidance won't be out until January 15th. So...per then I guess we're all out of pocket for the $25/test cost? And even once reimbursement kicks in I imagine there are a lot of people for whom paying that out in cash regularly, even if you expect reimbursement, is cost / cash flow prohibitive.

Seems like a step in the right direction, though. I'm also hoping that this is an area where presidential nudging can get insurers (and maybe others) to start paying the costs sooner.

[Daehawk]

Many Severe Covid-19 Survivors Go on to Die Within a Year, Study Finds

New research this week finds that people who are hospitalized with severe covid-19 but survive often pay a heavy price afterward. The study concluded that these survivors were more than twice as likely to die in the subsequent 12 months compared to people who had tested negative for the virus. This relatively increased risk of death was even higher for people under the age 65.

[Smoove_B]

Seems like a step in the right direction, though. I'm also hoping that this is an area where presidential nudging can get insurers (and maybe others) to start paying the costs sooner.

It is and it's something public health professionals (practitioners, academics, etc...) have been calling for. Biden himself said in January (I believe) this was part of his plan, but apparently has been following the advice of the "vaccine only" crowd instead.

Next up should be the mailing of N95 (or equivalent) masks to everyone. And/or making sure there are N95 masks available at a county or local level for those that want/need them.

We need to do something different because our current plan is not working. And it's not working because people refuse to vaccinate or do anything other than vaccinate.

[Smoove_B]

More info on Omicron:

1. Epidemiological data (March 2020 - Nov 2021) from SA show a 3-fold increase in risk for reinfection due 2 the #OmicronVariant vs. the Beta + #DeltaVariant

2. This finding provides epidemiological evidence for Omicron’s ability to evade immunity from prior infection

Just need to keep getting more data and watching. Mask up!

[LawBeefaroni]

(don't use "2" in place of "to" in a data driven tweet, hurts my eyes)

[Smoove_B]

This might be one of the greatest summaries I've read in the last week:

So then, exactly what should we worry about regarding the Omicron variant? I suggest one plausible scenario, based on what relatively little we know right now, is the emergence of separate, twin outbreaks, where the currently-dominant Delta variant continues to ravage unvaccinated people in the United States, even as Omicron targets people who are partially immune—either from previous infection or incomplete vaccination.

...

Therefore, it would not surprise me if we start to see Omicron reinfections among those who were infected earlier with another variant but decided not to get vaccinated, or those who had only two doses of the mRNA vaccine but experienced waning immunity. The first Omicron case in the United States appears to fall into the latter category.

So here is what we might see unfold in 2022: Both variants circulate in the U.S., with the Delta variant disproportionately affecting the totally unvaccinated, while Omicron causes reinfections among those who have not been vaccinated but infected previously, or those who have not received their booster (third mRNA immunization). And of course, this won’t be cut and dried or black and white—there will be overlap.

What about those who received three mRNA immunizations, will they be protected against the Omicron variant? It’s difficult to say, but given that the third immunization often provides a 30-40 fold rise in virus neutralizing antibodies to the original variant, I’m still hopeful that this will provide sufficient levels of virus neutralizing antibodies to cross over (or as Tony Fauci says, “spillover”) to neutralize the Omicron variant. In this case, three immunizations of our existing mRNA vaccines might still stop symptomatic or severe illness, and even possibly infection.

What to do?

A bottom line is that whether you are concerned about Delta, Omicron, or both, your strategy to protect the health of you or a loved one is the same. Get your third mRNA immunization if you are eligible and haven’t done so already. If you have been infected previously, get vaccinated. And vaccinate your kids.

Most important to remember:

Finally, keep in mind that this is a fluid situation. We are learning something new about Omicron daily, and this scenario provides an early roadmap of how to think through this very thorny problem of a potentially troublesome new variant. Almost certainly, it will require modification as the data pour in in the coming days and weeks.

[LordMortis]

Most important to remember:

Finally, keep in mind that this is a fluid situation. We are learning something new about Omicron daily, and this scenario provides an early roadmap of how to think through this very thorny problem of a potentially troublesome new variant. Almost certainly, it will require modification as the data pour in in the coming days and weeks.

Unacceptable. Give me horse paste. These guys know and you obviously don't. You keep changing what you think it is right by experimenting on me with your mandate. I've done my research. My body my choice. Unmask our kids. Do not comply.

[RunningMn9]

Cases are surging; hospitalizations aren't following in lockstep yet. 81% of us have at least one shot, 71% are fully vaxxed, and people are getting boosted as fast as facilities can handle them. We're about to find out just how much good that does.

When you say “lockstep” you mean “with a two to three week lag”, right?

My understanding through all of these waves has been that cases begin to surge and we don’t do anything because “look! Hospitalizations and deaths aren’t surging!!”. Then around two weeks later, hospitalizations start surging, but we all just kind of look at each other and do nothing because “look! Deaths aren’t surging!”.

And then two to three weeks later we all have sad faces as deaths begin to surge and we realize that once again we wasted six weeks and consigned another batch of people to death.

Hopefully (I guess?) cases surged two to three weeks ago, and hospitalizations still haven’t started to surge?

[malchior]

Hopefully (I guess?) cases surged two to three weeks ago, and hospitalizations still haven’t started to surge?

Bad news there. They've doubled from 500 to 1000 current hospitalizations in MA month-over-month.

[Smoove_B]

Hopefully (I guess?) cases surged two to three weeks ago, and hospitalizations still haven’t started to surge?

MA is trending upwards in all cases and hospitalizations:

Massachusetts on Wednesday reported striking increases in COVID infections and hospitalizations, with the state reporting that 957 people were hospitalized with the virus, the highest number since mid-February. It also recorded a new high for the fall of 4,838 confirmed coronavirus cases in a single day.

What remains to be seen is how many deaths will occur. At some point, however, more cases and more hospitalizations is potentially going to overwhelm the hospital systems again and at that point more deaths will happen.

And yeah, if only there was some way to predict this happening. If only there was some historical data we could look to that might give us a hint - that a pattern emerges when you start sorting the data. We should look into that.