The Viral Economy

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:21 am

Jesus. I wonder what category I would have been in during my 4-5 year on again/off again...hiatus/semi-retirement/"lost in the woods" wandering?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:43 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:18 am So what is that 10% DOING? Can't all be uber drivers and Doordash...can it?

A sizable chunk of it is that kids don't have part time or summer jobs anymore. Another part is that there are a lot more disabled folks. The United States has a lot of pain and suffering swept under the rug. It's also a good part of what is fueling this incredible anger we see.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:48 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:43 pm A sizable chunk of it is that kids don't have part time or summer jobs anymore. Another part is that there are a lot more disabled folks. The United States has a lot of pain and suffering swept under the rug. It's also a good part of what is fueling this incredible anger we see.

Not sure if you saw the big article in the state paper over the weekend regarding our shore communities. Namely, they really want all that tourist money but they're not paying adequate wages to the summer help, so businesses are in trouble because they can't keep themselves staffed. And in some of the communities they take on so many seasonal workers, they need to rely on local housing summer rentals for them to live. However, landlords have jacked up prices and/or sold the rental units and so seasonal/temp workers have no where to live and/or can't afford to live in the summer communities where they've been hired to work.

I know the lifeguard issue continues to to be a problem all over NJ. Places don't want to pay and no one wants to get certified to make crap wages.

We're in quite a loop.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:52 pm

Workers of the world, unite!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:57 pm

I had brunch downtown on Sunday. Two of our waiters were wearing Rolex watches. It would seem that you have to pay up for the good help. Or get someone from overseas. One of the hostesses was Irish.

Which is just more stratification. If you spend for brunch on the Mag Mile you get great service from almost too many staff. If you hit up Taco Bell you're lucky if they are at 50% staffing.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:10 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:57 pm It would seem that you have to pay up for the good help. Or get someone from overseas.

That's the issue in our shore communities. They get so much temporary/seasonal help from people overseas but those folks can't afford to live in the towns that are hiring them for summer help. The article featured someone that was living in a hotel because no rentals were affordable. And yes, no one local is actually interested in working in these places - either prices or the actual work being offered.

Add in the price of gasoline and I'm guessing our vacation communities this summer are going to take a beating.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:34 pm

Last time I was in Ocean City in NC and you would have thought you dropped into Russia. Everyone working there was from overseas. As was mentioned above that's not working now.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:16 pm

Again, ignore at your own peril. As if ignoring Covid wasn't bad enough:

An 11-strong British Airways flight crew is being kept in isolation in Singapore after one of the group tested positive for monkeypox, according to sources.

Two pilots and nine cabin crew were all held in the Asian island hub, with BA insiders saying they will be stuck there for 21 days.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:45 am

It was nice knowing you all. It was a pretty good run and I'm mostly sad for the coming generations who will have to carve a path through what we're handing them.

We don't have the will to do anything about COVID, monkeypox is making its move, and hey Polio thinks it's time to make a comeback. We don't have the will to do anything about the climate that apparently is going to start impacting hydro power generation in the very near future. We don't have the will to do anything about gun violence. To be fair, some have the will, but nobody with the power is going to be able to act in time.

We were founded on freedom, slavery (ironically) and capitalism and what's going to take us down? "Freedom", bigotry and capitalism.

I'm starting to feel a bit of Drazzil coming on. Apologies for the senseless rant.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:47 pm

Hey, I have a great idea to reduce delays - just cut flights:

United Airlines will cut about 50 daily flights from Newark Liberty International Airport next month in an effort to reduce delays that have disrupted travelers' plans this year.

The cuts amount to about 12% of United's schedule at its New Jersey hub and apply solely to domestic flights, starting July 1.

United executives have said the delays are the result of capacity constraints, airport construction and air traffic control — not airline staffing shortfalls.

Again, it's totally all these other things and not staffing issues related to Covid.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:07 pm

I do wonder what the breaking point will be for airlines:

At least 730 flights were canceled across the United States on Sunday evening, according to the flight-tracking website FlightAware.
Delta Air Lines alone canceled at least 224 flights on Sunday. United Airlines canceled 71 flights and American Airlines canceled 66 flights.

...

"Delta teams continue to safely manage through compounding factors affecting our operation this weekend, including higher-than-planned unscheduled absences in some of our work groups, weather, and air traffic control constraints," a Delta Air Lines spokesperson said. "Canceling a flight is always our last resort, and we sincerely apologize to our customers for any disruption to their travel plans."

"Unscheduled absences" = Covid. Just say it.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:15 am

The airlines won't break. They make up for the disruptions via market prices rising to squeeze people through the disrupted pipeline. They'll be fine. The public is who takes the brunt of it.

Funny that they mention air traffic control issues. They are also partially COVID. As my pilot friend has been relaying to us at our weekly game...ATC in metro NYC has had micro shutdowns for small periods of time ranging from minutes to a couple hours at a time because of coverage gaps. They essentially halt departures and focus on arrivals. It's the new normal.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:12 am

Ideally people quit counting on airlines to enjoy themselves and demand craters.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:23 am

I don't think we want craters created by airlines.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:24 am

Keep working those numbers!

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is still in the process of system restoration, and as a result, we will not publish new data today, June 27, 2022. This delay includes the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.

On Friday, June 17, we discovered a voltage irregularity, which caused hardware failures on two of our main processing servers. This issue prevented us from processing and releasing several reports last week, and unfortunately, it continues to affect our ability to release data this week.

We have replaced the affected hardware and are in the process of transferring data from our back-up systems to new servers. Once the data transfer is complete, we will perform quality checks to ensure data integrity before releasing any reports and associated data.

We will continue to provide timely updates as we bring our systems back online and will share a schedule for our product releases as soon as possible. Because we have been able to collect data throughout the outage and subsequent restoration, we will release the data that was scheduled for publication last week, including our U.S. average gasoline and diesel prices for June 20, 2022.

It's taken over 10 days and counting to recover from a very timely "voltage irregularity?" Riiiight.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:23 pm

Can't wait to see with the airline industry is like this weekend.

In other economic news, at least film and TV production companies are realizing they need to do something to continue to make money in LA:

“With new hospital admissions reaching more than 8 per week per 100,000 population, they will resume indoor masking requirements, along with several other safety measures,” Ferrer said of film and TV productions in a media briefing today. Public Health data show that, as of today, the 7-day average number of hospitalizations per 100,000 residents has risen to 8.1. Some industry sources, however, question whether the so-called “Escalation Trigger” threshold has been met.

I just looked at current data for my state and we're at ~15 per week.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:48 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:24 amIt's taken over 10 days and counting to recover from a very timely "voltage irregularity?" Riiiight.

Having supported many government IT contracts their story is probably the truth. The shit is usually held together with chewing gum. Plus it is often overpriced and unreliable. I also don't really get what delaying the product gets anyone either.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:24 pm

I wouldn't have thought this was a big travel weekend, and I guess with all the delays, it technically isn't:

Tens of thousands of travelers nationwide found their flights delayed or canceled over the busy Fourth of July weekend, and fliers into and out of Newark Liberty International Airport were no exception.

...

On Friday, Newark had 67 flights, or 6.1%, canceled, with 472 delays, or 42.9% of flights. On Saturday, 84 flights, or 8.5%, were canceled, while 28.3%, or 279 flights, were delayed. And on Sunday, 33 flights were canceled, or 3.2% of the total. There were 174 flight delays, or 16.6% of the total.

What's happening?

Experts attributed the delays and cancellations to airlines booking more flights than they can staff, while an airline trade association said there aren’t enough air traffic controllers at some airports.

I guess it's just a mystery.

And just to demonstrate I'm not only focusing on the United States, what's happening in the UK?

The airline said Peter Bellew had left "to pursue other business opportunities" and wished him well.

It comes after thousands of EasyJet flights have been cancelled - some at short notice.

Trade union Unite last month criticised a "lack of leadership" at the airline and urged Mr Bellew to "take control".

Announcing Mr Bellew's resignation, EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren said the airline was "absolutely focused on delivering a safe and reliable operation this summer".

It's almost like the airline industry had something very similar to a "Just in time" model where the CEOs knew exactly how many flights were needed to turn a profit and whatever the right staffing levels were to keep things moving. Now that the system has been disrupted, their money equations are all off and they're flailing, trying to figure out the best way to keep shareholders happy.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:33 pm

Much the same is happening here in Canada. Air Canada recently announced that it's cutting service by about 15% in July and August, cancelling about 154 scheduled flights per day.

Air Canada reducing summer flights as industry faces ‘unprecedented strains’ on travel operations

Air Canada, AC-T citing “unprecedented strains” on the airline industry from resurgent travel, says it is cancelling 154 flights per day in July and August, or 15 per cent of its schedule.

“Regrettably, things are not business as usual in our industry globally, and this is affecting our operations and our ability to serve you with our normal standards of care,” chief executive Michael Rousseau said in a message to customers Wednesday night.

“Despite detailed and careful planning, the largest and fastest scale of hiring in our history, as well as investments in aircraft and equipment, it is now clear that Air Canada’s operations too have been disrupted by the industry’s complex and unavoidable challenges.”

Mr. Rousseau’s customer message did not provide details on the reductions, but Air Canada gave specifics in a response to questions from The Globe and Mail.

The airline said it is reducing its schedule, on average, by 77 round trips, or 154 flights, a day in total for July and August. Air Canada currently operates on average about 1,000 flights a day.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:12 pm

First I'm seeing this

Cornyn is joining McConnell to hold hostage a bipartisan bill that would make more in America, in order to protect pharmaceutical companies’ profits.

We need to do BOTH: increase American manufacturing and strengthen our competitive edge against China, AND lower Rx drug costs.

Senator John Cornyn
Looks like Schumer giving up on USICA, including shoring up the vulnerable supply chain for high end semiconductors. Major chip makers will likely abandon their plans to build manufacturing facilities in the US. Body blow to US national security, economy, and well paying jobs.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:17 pm

Yup - this is Cornyn trying to obfuscate the GOP has kiboshed two incredibly important efforts to on-shore critical parts of our supply chain. We have heard almost zero about it. Good work Democrats and the 4th estate for letting the latest GOP effort to undermine our future fly right under the radar.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:36 pm

Remember too that McConnell is beholden to his 500-millionaire Chinese father in-law.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:16 pm

Red states are trying to use covid relief funds for tax cuts.

As gas prices climbed toward record highs this May, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) secured a pause on the state’s fuel taxes — a $200 million plan he helped pay for with a pot of federal funds awarded earlier in the pandemic.

The policy was intended to save money for local drivers and state coffers alike. But it also appeared to mark a potential violation of federal law — and the latest skirmish in an escalating clash between GOP officials and the White House over how states can use generous federal stimulus dollars.

More than a year after Congress approved a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, Republicans in nearly two dozen states have ratcheted up efforts to tap some of those funds for an unrelated purpose: paying for tax cuts. The moves have threatened to siphon off aid that might otherwise help states fight the pandemic, shore up their local economies or prepare for a potential recession.

The intensifying Republican campaign targets one of the signature programs Democrats approved as part of President Biden’s American Rescue Plan last year. At the urging of the nation’s mayors and governors, Congress delivered what largely amounted to a blank check for every city and state to bolster their budgets.

Congress ultimately laid down few conditions for how local leaders could use the pot of money, which totaled $350 billion nationally. But they were clear about one thing: The federal government would not subsidize state tax cuts. Lawmakers led by Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) said at the time that Washington should not be on the hook to pay for reductions in state tax revenues, since that could leave major budget holes once federal aid ran dry.

Eh, whaddaya gonna do, sue them? We all know where that would end up.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:19 pm

Efficiency of the PPP:

But preserving jobs was expensive. The study found that, depending on the assumptions, the cost per job saved for one year was $169,000 to $258,000, which was much higher than the average amount—$58,200—paid in wages and benefits to small-business employees in 2020. The authors concluded that the PPP cost taxpayers roughly $4 for every $1 of wages and benefits received by workers in “saved” jobs. The “leakage”—$3 out of every $4 distributed through the program—went to small-business owners. According to the study, small-business owners shared these dollars with suppliers, whose sales to loan recipients were greater than they would have been without the PPP, and with banks and other lenders in the form of greater loan volumes and fees for PPP loan administration.

...

Conclusions: A Critical but Imperfect Policy
The PPP was a very large and very timely fiscal-policy intervention, saving about 3 million jobs at its peak in the second quarter of 2020 and distributing $800 billion well within two years of the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. But it was poorly targeted, as almost three-quarters of its benefits went to unintended recipients, including business owners, creditors and suppliers, rather than to workers. Due to differences in the typical incomes of those varied constituencies, it also ended up being quite regressive compared with other major COVID-19 relief programs, as it benefited high-income households much more.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:25 pm

But it was poorly targeted, as almost three-quarters of its benefits went to unintended recipients, including business owners, creditors and suppliers, rather than to workers.

Or was it working exactly as designed by the previous administration?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:23 pm

Considering how fast they threw PPP together I don't think anyone could have been targeted effectively. It was all seat of pants. I think in the balance it did way more good than bad. Keeping millions of people in jobs even if it was inefficient was more important.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:51 am

Ooph.

Shoppers paid sharply higher prices for a variety of goods in June as inflation kept its hold on a slowing U.S. economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI increased 5.9%, compared with the 5.7% estimate. Core inflation peaked at 6.5% in March and has been nudging down since.

On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 1.3% and core CPI was up 0.7%, compared to respective estimates of 1.1% and 0.5%.

Taken together, the numbers seemed to counter the narrative that inflation may be peaking, as the gains were based across a variety of categories.

“CPI delivered another shock, and as painful as June’s higher number is, equally as bad is the broadening sources of inflation,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Though CPI’s spike is led by energy and food prices, which are largely global problems, prices continue to mount for domestic goods and services, from shelter to autos to apparel.”

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 12:50 pm

The continued gap between core and headline is pretty notable now. It probably can't last with energy prices at the levels they are now. The Fed has only bad options now and it'd typically involve some level of forced unemployment. Yet we're seeing business holding onto employees. It pears to be another ugly problem in a world with too many.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:10 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 12:50 pm Yet we're seeing business holding onto employees.

Google and many other tech giants just said they will be cutting. It will start with tech, but probably snowball.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:25 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:10 pm
malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 12:50 pm Yet we're seeing business holding onto employees.
Google and many other tech giants just said they will be cutting. It will start with tech, but probably snowball.

FWIW my take is that the tech giants are partially doing this for control/cultural reasons and not purely for economic reasons...yet. Though I'm basing this mostly on anecdata. For example, I have a couple of friends out at Google and Apple saying they're suddenly being driven into the offices. Even though they were assured they'd be permanently hybrid. Apparently the herd has decided the commercial real estate (and COVID) gods must be appeased.

I'm also seeing other dumb stuff happening. I work for a pre-IPO and we just announced a "hiring freeze" yet our most central money engine in the business just landed several new large clients. Like their book of business just grew 40% or something absurd. That team was already stretched. And they had people people in the interview process who are now frozen out of the blue when the orders came on from on high. Our financials overall are above target. It does feels much like we're going to see a secular 'very serious' people appeasement/propaganda for the money overlords campaign versus a sound business fundamentals thing. "Why would you hire! Everyone else is laying off" (The answer is we're growing quite briskly but fuck living in reality. Let's see how far we can stretch the team...for PROFIT!).

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:19 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:25 pmFWIW my take is that the tech giants are partially doing this for control/cultural reasons and not purely for economic reasons...yet. Though I'm basing this mostly on anecdata. For example, I have a couple of friends out at Google and Apple saying they're suddenly being driven into the offices. Even though they were assured they'd be permanently hybrid. Apparently the herd has decided the commercial real estate (and COVID) gods must be appeased.

We are struggling with hybrid working in two ways.
Newly hired folks are incredibly hard to integrate into remote working. When we bring in full squads it works. When we have to create squads, it doesn't Employees that have been on-boarded take about 3 times as long to be productive (6 months instead of 2 is about the average.)

While I haven't seen any metrics myself, the executives are saying that overall productivity is down, but how much of that is due to the first issue is unknown.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:26 pm

Productivity is down because everyone is going on vacation or needs one. If they’re not getting sick. People with kids are still operating without extended summer camps.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:14 pm

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:19 pmWhile I haven't seen any metrics myself, the executives are saying that overall productivity is down, but how much of that is due to the first issue is unknown.

It comes down to how they are measuring productivity. For the typical office worker it's mumbo jumbo hand waving.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:52 pm

Well with corporate America taking record profits while not hiring new employees, and all that being funneled into finance/ the stonk market... I suspect at some point the market will crash AGAIN, and I'm not sure the fed will bail out the market this time. That said... Where does money go when we're the prettiest pig in the poke?

If we see a world depression or recession where will all the money go? All the markets are linked. Unless countries make a concerted effort with dwindling resources to decouple their markets from the world economy, we're all in this together.

So I got no idea.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:09 am

Uh. Doesn’t the money go poof ?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:44 am

Unagi wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:09 am Uh. Doesn’t the money go poof ?

Value of "money" may go poof but wealth always begets wealth. The better you can weather the down cycle the better you do on the up cycle.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:19 am

Unagi wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:09 am Uh. Doesn’t the money go poof ?

No.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:43 am

Continue to commute and pretend that things are normal

The Staten Island Ferry will run less frequently in the coming days amid a shortage of workers that city officials have blamed on the uptick in COVID-19 cases.

The Department of Transportation announced the modified schedule online, noting cuts would impact service between 6 and 9 a.m. and 4 to 8 p.m. through July 26th. During those times, the bright orange boats will be available every 20 minutes – as opposed to every 15 minutes.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 20, 2022 8:01 am

A pretty great thread.