The Viral Economy

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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Wait, you haven't heard of "quiet quitting"? It's the new "no one wants to work."
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

Quiet Quitting. I heard about it on CNBC, I think, on Monday.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

I have definitely seen it on CNBC. I just wrote it off as another propaganda broadcast on the 'voice of oligarchy' network.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by msteelers »

Quiet quitting sounds an awful lot like burnout. Only now the corporations can put the onus on the individual for being a “quitter”.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Jaymon »

I think I am in the burnout right now.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Zarathud »

Our Indiana located managing partner is talking about “America deciding to fail” after the pandemic.

It sounds like failure to recognize burnout to me, as well as refusal to believe that many staff have sick family, have been catching up on vacations, and learned to establish personal time boundaries when partners decided WFH meant “call any time.” Clients don’t have employees to get their end done, and courts are taking weeks to handle filings.

The IRS is so backed up, they’ve snuck into the “user agreement” that making requests for transcripts and closing letters — that our clients pay for — means we agree the IRS is not required to give us updates on the timing of satisfying the request. That’s because they were sitting on millions of tax returns earlier this year.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kurth »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:09 pm Wait, you haven't heard of "quiet quitting"? It's the new "no one wants to work."
What a load of horseshit.

These comments from that article strike me about right:
Rebecca Jarvis, ABC News chief business, technology and economics correspondent, said making a decision to quiet quit a job could come down to a person's career goals.

"If your objective is work-life balance over income and maybe even job security and you're not looking for big raises and promotions, then this could work for you," Jarvis said
So, yeah, if you don’t have any career goals, go ahead and do the bare minimum your job requires. Just don’t complain when you’re still at that same job level 20 years from now, or, worse, you’re first out the door during layoffs when the next downturn hits.

Numbnuts. :roll:
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by stessier »

I disagree. I think everyone strikes some balance and very few do the absolute most possible. Quiet quitting is just a stupid name for the compromises people make every day.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Kurth wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 2:06 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:09 pm Wait, you haven't heard of "quiet quitting"? It's the new "no one wants to work."
What a load of horseshit.
I agree with that part at least. It's not even quitting!
Worst. Name. Ever.

Especially since we already have a name for it: "work-life balance"

How DARE someone leave at 5PM to go home and have some quality family time?! LAZY FOOLS, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO WORK UNTIL WAY PAST YOUR EFFECTIVE PRODUCTIVITY HOURS, IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN TO KEEP UP APPEARANCES :roll:
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

The worst trend this is driving is the electronic monitoring they are sneaking onto work devices. ARE THEY TYPING! IS THEIR TEAMS STATUS AWAY!

It still astounds me that so many executives and managers don't know how to track work without ridiculous crutches.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

stessier wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 4:12 pm I disagree. I think everyone strikes some balance and very few do the absolute most possible. Quiet quitting is just a stupid name for the compromises people make every day.
When I was young we called it "A fair day's work for a fair day's pay," or "work-to-contract" for the unionized.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kurth »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 4:29 pm
Kurth wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 2:06 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:09 pm Wait, you haven't heard of "quiet quitting"? It's the new "no one wants to work."
What a load of horseshit.
I agree with that part at least. It's not even quitting!
Worst. Name. Ever.

Especially since we already have a name for it: "work-life balance"

How DARE someone leave at 5PM to go home and have some quality family time?! LAZY FOOLS, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO WORK UNTIL WAY PAST YOUR EFFECTIVE PRODUCTIVITY HOURS, IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN TO KEEP UP APPEARANCES :roll:
Work-life balance is great. It’s essential. That’s not really what this is, at least, not from the article(s) I read and the interviews. This is not balancing: This is being a shitty employee and a bad teammate.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:56 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 4:29 pm
Kurth wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 2:06 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:09 pm Wait, you haven't heard of "quiet quitting"? It's the new "no one wants to work."
What a load of horseshit.
I agree with that part at least. It's not even quitting!
Worst. Name. Ever.

Especially since we already have a name for it: "work-life balance"

How DARE someone leave at 5PM to go home and have some quality family time?! LAZY FOOLS, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO WORK UNTIL WAY PAST YOUR EFFECTIVE PRODUCTIVITY HOURS, IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN TO KEEP UP APPEARANCES :roll:
Work-life balance is great. It’s essential. That’s not really what this is, at least, not from the article(s) I read and the interviews. This is not balancing: This is being a shitty employee and a bad teammate.
I think part of the issue is that everyone has a different "definition" depending on their viewpoint.

For example, as I see it the work culture in the United States that we all lived with before the pandemic was ridiculous. This is my viewpoint as someone who has worked in several different countries and had clients around the world. I'm working 50 hours weeks through the summer while my clients in Europe vanish for weeks. While here we are given "unlimited PTO" and then questioned if we take more than a week. Where 70% of our employers are so concerned with people not working that they are blanket using spytools that in the past used to only be authorized for people with documented performance issues.

What I think is driving much of this - dumb term aside - is that lots of young folks saw their parents dealing with that, prioritizing work to the exclusion of their lives, and then saw those companies leave them high and dry over and over.

I mean the article itself levies that implied threat. Get to work or else you might be first laid off. There is some common sense to it but it's messed up in the context of how fucked up American work culture is. So faced with that journey for themselves young people are saying fuck that. And I applaud it to some degree. Now if there was some general movement to hide doing work, screwing over people, etc? I'd be on board with condemning it but at least in the "movement" sense it is about a fair work day for fair pay. And that is something that just isn't the norm here and people are fed up.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by stessier »

The articles I read say people are completing their tasks and working their 40 hours. They just aren't doing more or if their tasks are complete, aren't volunteering or going out of their way to find other work. It's not great, but there is some sense there.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

If they're not seeking promotions, then what's the problem? Meets Expectations should not be a bad thing.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

stessier wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:47 pm The articles I read say people are completing their tasks and working their 40 hours. They just aren't doing more or if their tasks are complete, aren't volunteering or going out of their way to find other work. It's not great, but there is some sense there.
In one of my earliest jobs, I worked a 4-8 pm shift and had to produce six cases per shift. The boss left at 5. So I'd plod through that first hour to make 2 cases. When the boss left I'd kick into high gear and finish the other 4 cases in the next hour, leaving me free for the last two hours. Since we were a small crew and all friends, we all paced ourselves to finish up around 6 pm and party with pay for 2 hours every night (we were all teens and 20-somethings and it was mindless factory work).

I bitched when they boosted my quota to eight cases because those extra 2 took half an hour out of my party time, but I also got a raise from $2.25 to $2.45/hr, so that was cool.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Blackhawk »

Some people are driven to advance more than others. I think the pandemic work-from-home experience has given some people a better view of what the trade-off is, of what the personal cost of that kind of success is. And now some of them are deciding that perfection and advancement aren't worth the price.

That doesn't mean that they're leaving their work for others, or not earning their pay. They're just not trying to be #1 at the expense of the rest of their existence. They're choosing to shift their core focus from 'work and live when I there's room for it' to 'live and work when they're paying me to work.' And if in 20 years they're still at the same job, they're going to be there with a richer bank of memories and a stronger family as a result - but with less money in the bank and a less impressive title.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Zarathud »

My first law partner told me 20 years ago that a human being can only produce a certain amount of value. Any additional pay is to put up with bullshit. He promised a lot of bullshit in my career. He was right.

But a lot of work doesn’t pay enough to put up with the bullshit. That’s been a long term problem. The pandemic has increased the difficulty and bullshit in many jobs. Routine requests which took 24-48 hours are now taking over a week. That has a downstream flow of bullshit, and management refuses to acknowledge anything has changed.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kurth »

Blackhawk wrote: Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:48 pm Some people are driven to advance more than others. I think the pandemic work-from-home experience has given some people a better view of what the trade-off is, of what the personal cost of that kind of success is. And now some of them are deciding that perfection and advancement aren't worth the price.

That doesn't mean that they're leaving their work for others, or not earning their pay. They're just not trying to be #1 at the expense of the rest of their existence. They're choosing to shift their core focus from 'work and live when I there's room for it' to 'live and work when they're paying me to work.' And if in 20 years they're still at the same job, they're going to be there with a richer bank of memories and a stronger family as a result - but with less money in the bank and a less impressive title.
Again, work-life balance is critically important. I took nearly a 40% paycut and moved clear across the country to go from working at a law firm to working as in-house counsel. Much of that decision had to do with an inability to get the work-life balance to a point that made sense to me and my family while working through the law firm grind. No objections or complaints with people adjusting their working life to better fit the rest of their life: Changing your job to seek a better work-life balance or setting boundaries at work to make sure you are in good mental, emotional and physical shape makes perfect sense to me, and, honestly, is a choice I personally made 7 years or so ago, and I’ve never regretted it for a day.

Maybe it’s the media taking a few outlier cases and blowing them out of proportion, but what I’m seeing in a number of these interviews about “quiet quitting” is a general attitude that tries to redefine doing your job to doing the bare minimum. And it seems to devalue the importance of caring about your work, its quality and the overall mission of whatever organization or company or client you are working for or with. Instead of encouraging employees to be invested in their work, it seems to advocate for an entirely transactional model. Obviously, the employer/employee relationship is transactional, and sometimes that’s all it is, but in my experience, in the best jobs, there’s the potential for something more meaningful than just that transactional basis.

One more entry in what is increasingly sounding to my own ears as a grumpy old man yelling at the clouds rant: We recently had a job opening for an in-house, junior attorney position. Our company is a desirable place to work. It’s kind of a dream job for a lot of people. When we interviewed candidates for this position - one that rarely comes up - I was expecting we’d get a ton of hungry, polished, incredibly well-qualified applicants. We did panel interviews over Zoom after our Talent Acquisition group narrowed the field to a half dozen candidates, and I was really surprised at what I saw. 30% were as I expected, but the rest were really surprising. They literally appeared as if they had just rolled out of bed and weren’t even completely sure what they were interviewing for. It was like they cared so little about the opportunity and were more looking to have us sell them on the job than convince us they’d be the right person for the role. And these were young professionals with law degrees in their late 20s or even early 30s. They seemed so apathetic about work, in general.

Just one anecdote, but it seems to coincide with this anti-“hustle culture” attitude.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Alefroth »

You were a quiet quitter before it was cool.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kurth »

Alefroth wrote: Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:31 pm You were a quiet quitter before it was cool.
LOL. Not exactly. Not even close! I left a job that wasn't working for me and found a job that was. But I never did so thinking I would be doing the minimum or wouldn't be invested in my job. I just found a job that had different requirements and valued different things that I could bring to the table above and beyond billable hours clocked or high-value client generation.

But I care about my job and give 110% because I believe in what my company is all about (at least, the vast majority of the time). And I don't really want to work with people that don't feel the same way. So, quiet-quitters or "bare minimum - givers" need not apply.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Expanding on the "learning to live with it" philosophy, how is long Covid impacting the job market?
Between two million and four million Americans aren’t working due to the long-term effects of Covid-19, according to a new Brookings Institution report released Wednesday.

The inability to work translates to roughly $170 billion a year in lost wages, the report estimates. It follows a January Brookings Institution report that estimated long Covid was potentially causing 15% of the country’s labor shortage.

The report estimates that roughly 16 million Americans of working age—between 18 and 65—have long Covid, which most groups and doctors define as wide-ranging symptoms that persist for months following an infection and can include shortness of breath, extreme fatigue and neurocognitive issues.

...

“Three million full-time-equivalent workers is 1.8% of the entire U.S. civilian labor force,” said Katie Bach, a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based think tank and author of both Brookings reports.
Yeah, but what does that cost?
David Cutler, a health economist and professor of economics at Harvard University, has also calculated the economic cost of long Covid. According to his estimates, the total cost is $3.7 trillion.

He breaks the costs down to reduced quality of life, reduced earnings and increased medical spending.
And we're just getting started with trying to understand it. Everything is fine!
“Long Covid definitely affects the ability to remain employed, and we’re definitely seeing a lot of people being denied short- and long-term disability and workers’ compensation despite the fact that they have a diagnosis of long Covid,” said Dr. Putrino.

Monica Verduzco-Gutierrez, professor and chair of the department of rehabilitation medicine at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio and director of its Covid Recovery Clinic, said a lot of long Covid patients are having difficulties going back to work.

“That’s going to cost the economy a lot,” she said. “Study after study shows that a lot of the people who are affected are 40-year-olds, people who are working.”
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

He breaks the costs down to reduced quality of life, reduced earnings and increased medical spending.
Amongst the proles.


Wake us up when the costs are visible in corporate profits and relative GDP. Until then there are lines of 1%rs laughing all the way to the bank.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:20 pm Expanding on the "learning to live with it" philosophy, how is long Covid impacting the job market?
So that's 1.5 million per year out on long-term disability plus half a million dead. We're popping out 3.5 million babies. Yeah, the numbers aren't demonstrating a growth trend.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Missed this last night:


According to Caixin, 33 Chinese cities, including Tianjin and 7 provincial capitals, are now under partial or full lockdowns, affecting more than 65 million residents.
So weird how China keeps trying to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 with these lockdowns while the United States is doing everything they can to ignore it.
Trade In November 2021, the top exports of Tianjin were Crude Petroleum ($205M), Integrated Circuits ($196M), Telephones ($187M), Coated Flat-Rolled Iron ($161M), and Bicycles ($149M).
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Unagi »

Suspicous.

What exactly does China have to hide, huh?
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Sep 04, 2022 8:29 pm So weird how China keeps trying to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 with these lockdowns while the United States is doing everything they can to ignore it.
Authoritarianism ftw!
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Authoritarianism is the mechanism that allows them to do it, but the question is *why*? Why should they care if millions of citizens are made ill? I don't believe they're acting in the best interests of the average worker so whom does this ultimately serve?

And just to further clarify - I'm not in favor of lockdowns. It just feels like maybe we could be doing something between what's currently happening in China and the United States - a middle ground, as it were.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

I don't understand it either. They can't be under the delusion that they can wipe out the virus, yet they behave as if they're trying.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Kraken wrote: Sun Sep 04, 2022 11:45 pm I don't understand it either. They can't be under the delusion that they can wipe out the virus, yet they behave as if they're trying.
Well, considering that they let Fauchi bio-engineer the virus in Wuhan, they probably have some inside information.

Or maybe, just maybe, they are about to have an economic meltdown as their real estate market collapses and the yuan gets obliterated. What else is an authoritarian regime to do but yank the leash?
China has reached a point of no return in its battle to contain what could be the biggest property crash the world has ever seen, experts believe, creating a perilous moment for the country’s Communist leadership and the global economy.

As western countries stand on the edge of a potentially ruinous recession in the coming year, China is also facing a slump thanks to “total collapse” of confidence among ordinary people in the once-buoyant housing market, the continued ravages of Beijing’s draconian zero-Covid strategy and an extreme heatwave that is affecting the supply of power and food.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

The Chinese situation also has me scratching my head. Their vaccination rate is pretty low so maybe it is the balance between managing how much damage is done by having localized outbreaks? They also might genuinely care about keeping people alive. In any case, China is in trouble. But so is the United States, and Europe, and the UK, ...
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

The real estate element isn't one I thought about at all.
malchior wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 6:43 am The Chinese situation also has me scratching my head. Their vaccination rate is pretty low so maybe it is the balance between managing how much damage is done by having localized outbreaks? They also might genuinely care about keeping people alive. In any case, China is in trouble. But so is the United States, and Europe, and the UK, ...
I've seen it theorized that they're following more of a precautionary principle knowing that the US (and the world, largely) isn't doing jack shit anymore. Why? Because scientists are starting to point out there is likely much more going on in the long term than originally thought. That's from Australian news this morning, suggesting they're trying to puzzle out why there's been such a bump in excess mortality over the last few months:
While it is clear that COVID-19 is increasing the mortality rate, its lingering impact may be far greater than is presently understood.
Or:
The most likely cause for non-COVID-19 excess deaths, the Actuaries Institute suggests, is ‘post-COVID-19 sequelae or interactions with other causes of death’ that may be having a ‘high’ impact in Australia.

‘Studies have shown that COVID-19 is associated with higher subsequent mortality risk from heart disease and other causes,’ its analysis states.
Scale that out over the entire population and America's trajectory over the next decade could get even worse.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:04 amScale that out over the entire population and America's trajectory over the next decade could get even worse.
This was always the fear. We kept hearing talk about balancing risks but we still don't know what the risks are.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:23 am This was always the fear. We kept hearing talk about balancing risks but we still don't know what the risks are.
It really does feel (to me) like we're focusing on the short term and not at all thinking about how things might look 5 or 10 years from now - which is typical, isn't it? That'll be someone else's problem in 2030, not mine.

Some more data:


US-based airlines canceled more than 100,000 flights between January and July, surpassing the number of cancellations that took place during the same period in pre-Covid 2019.

The impact on passengers is significant
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

Fares or flights? 100,000 flights? When they aren't running that many to begin with, that's crazy to me. How many are cancelled pre-covid on average?
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Unagi »

Also it seems that merely ‘more than pre Covid’ is a remarkably reasonable amount, since one would fully expect more being cancelled now than before the pandemic even hit.
I mean, right?
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

FAA
16,405,000 flights yearly
45,000 average daily flights
So, ~8.2M per 6mo, meaning 1.2% cancelled.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Unagi
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Unagi »

Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:42 pm FAA
16,405,000 flights yearly
45,000 average daily flights
So, ~8.2M per 6mo, meaning 1.2% cancelled.
That number (45k) has to be a large amount of private aircraft, and not commercial flights - is my guess (and what I tend to notice when one looks at the online live radars that are available)
malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Unagi wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:34 am
Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:42 pm FAA
16,405,000 flights yearly
45,000 average daily flights
So, ~8.2M per 6mo, meaning 1.2% cancelled.
That number (45k) has to be a large amount of private aircraft, and not commercial flights - is my guess (and what I tend to notice when one looks at the online live radars that are available)
Most likely correct. That number is filed flight plans. The major carriers have between 5K-6K pure domestic flights per day total. That 45K also includes flights that'll arrive from international departures.

FWIW the FAA headline stats are super annoying. They track passengers, total flights (but that includes freight and private), excludes IFR, etc. It's hard to unpick it all. But cancellations affecting commercial passengers are overall higher than 1.2%. Most airlines are seeing overall cancellations for 2022 at 2%-4%. Notable call out to Republic for an almost 6% cancellation rate. Republic is a regional carrier underneath the top 3 airlines that dba as United/Delta/American and operate hub to spoke. Their flights tend to get sacrificed for hub-to-hub by the operations centers at the major airlines.

Still we had a few high volume days where 10-15% of all flights were being cancelled this summer. There were more than a few days where NYC area airports (EWR, JFK, and LGA) shut down for periods of time because N90 (NYC Traffic Control) had a shortage of controllers. Discussion about that is upthread. It's been a wacky year for air travel.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Isgrimnur
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

10,000,000+ SCHEDULED PASSENGER FLIGHTS YEARLY
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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