The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Kurth wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:47 pm Granted, this seems most prevalent in entry-level and low paying jobs (retail, restaurants, etc.), but still . . . Have people just decided that those low-paying jobs aren't worth taking?
Historically when the job market gets wacky, you'd see an increase in the number of people returning to college. However, college admissions continue to drop, which isn't something I've seen an explanation for; it goes against historical trends.

I suspect that there are a significant number of people sharing the retirement / pension benefits of their boomer parents and the high-end salaries of their older Gen X parents. Before the pandemic the number of adult children living at home with parents was at record levels and I'm guessing it only increased as the pandemic heated up. I actually have extended family members that were financially supporting children for 5+ years post-college but I don't know what's changed since 2020.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:55 pm
Kurth wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:47 pm Granted, this seems most prevalent in entry-level and low paying jobs (retail, restaurants, etc.), but still . . . Have people just decided that those low-paying jobs aren't worth taking?
I actually have extended family members that were financially supporting children for 5+ years post-college but I don't know what's changed since 2020.
With a freshman in college and another on her way to college next year, this is the stuff of nightmares for me! :shock:
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:55 pm
Kurth wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:47 pm Granted, this seems most prevalent in entry-level and low paying jobs (retail, restaurants, etc.), but still . . . Have people just decided that those low-paying jobs aren't worth taking?
Historically when the job market gets wacky, you'd see an increase in the number of people returning to college. However, college admissions continue to drop, which isn't something I've seen an explanation for; it goes against historical trends.

I suspect that there are a significant number of people sharing the retirement / pension benefits of their boomer parents and the high-end salaries of their older Gen X parents. Before the pandemic the number of adult children living at home with parents was at record levels and I'm guessing it only increased as the pandemic heated up. I actually have extended family members that were financially supporting children for 5+ years post-college but I don't know what's changed since 2020.
There is data against this story too! (Click out to see 5Y to see the trend is steady.) This was something we saw pre-pandemic already. Household formation fell for years but settled at a fairly steady (but lower level) than in the past. We saw lots of 'households' form and then 'unform' (the big bump in 2020 and the big dip in 2021 that "cancel out each other"). But ultimately it has returned to pre-pandemic baseline. The gap still remains.

Edit: To be clearer, we saw household formation for millenials and gen y lag their previous generations for some time but we're seeing the same "depressed" levels as before the pandemic. If people were choosing to not work and move in with the folks at a different rate we should be seeing that in this data set.
Last edited by malchior on Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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malchior wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:55 pm Even if they are choosing not to work - how are they making ends meet?
1. Don't work
2. Don't work
3. ????
4. Make ends meet
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Re: The Viral Economy

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I know someone who just decided they don't want to work any more. No plan. Just live off savings.

I don't understand it at all, but apparently she's not the only one.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Kurth wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:47 pm How are so many people staying on the sidelines and out of the workforce?
6 possibilities

1) Off the payroll. Gig economy nor reporting or off the grid.
2) Retired earlier than economy wants them too and are done/Decided they can get along with less.
3) Trust fund baby and not going into the workforce
4) Living off government subsidy or charity
5) Crime
6) Have a means to debt living

What other choices are there? Even living in poverty requires one of the others if they're not working.
When did the last stimulus money go out? Seems like that was a long time ago, and it wasn't like those checks were enough to live on.
Stimulus checks for the vast majority of regular people was a month worth of living expenses. Free unemployment was a whole lot more but that was sustenance living when it was flowing.

I am guessing it mainly two things younger people living off their relatives for longer and older people getting out earlier. The younger people not getting into the workforce is concerning, in that by the time they start to get experience with working, they're brains are fully developed (aka older than 25) and they are less likely to be able to learn to work upon entering the job market for the first time.
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:01 am I know someone who just decided they don't want to work any more. No plan. Just live off savings.

I don't understand it at all, but apparently she's not the only one.
You know two of them. But then I was done before the pandemic started. I'm still exhausted. I'm still frazzled. My brain and body are both still going. I don't know what I'd do if I hadn't been saving everything for years leading up to my collapse. I had spend a number of years wondering how one gets on disability when they're problems don't appear to be debilitating.

The gub'ment expected me to work until 72 and are doing all they can to get me to get back in the workforce. They told me to invest because saving lost money to inflation. Then they treat "the market" like casualty to keep inflation down by means of forcing people back to work who were invested against inflation. This seems to work wonderfully with the death of the pension in the commercial workforce. No benefit seems to be more valuable than protected pension.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LordMortis wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:21 am Stimulus checks for the vast majority of regular people was a month worth of living expenses.
Not where I live. Stimulus barely covered most people's rent.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

There was a report released a month ago by the US Chamber of Commerce:
But a closer look at what has happened to the labor force can be better described as ‘The Great Reshuffle’ because hiring rates have outpaced quit rates since November of 2020. So, many workers are quitting their jobs—but many are getting re-hired elsewhere.
Apparently the answer is leisure and hospitality. Maybe.

Also:
For example, durable goods manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and education and health services have a labor shortage—these industries have more unfilled job openings than unemployed workers with experience in their respective industry. Even if every unemployed person with experience in the durable goods manufacturing industry were employed, the industry would only fill half of the vacant jobs.

Conversely, in the transportation, construction, and mining industries, there is a labor surplus. There are more unemployed workers with experience in their respective industry than there are open jobs.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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stessier wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:31 am
LordMortis wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:21 am Stimulus checks for the vast majority of regular people was a month worth of living expenses.
Not where I live. Stimulus barely covered most people's rent.
During the pandemic, non working people weren't paying rent were they? They were bankrupting their landlords.

For me it covered groceries, electric, gas, and my phone for a month covering about 1/3rd of my monthly expense (while employed. My expenses are higher now) No rent here but it would have covered my winter taxes or six months of home insurance or about 1/4 of my summer taxes.

But the original point made by Kurth remains. The wealthy thinking they can't get people to work for them for $12 an hour because everyone got $600 a head or less two years ago is a bit perplexing.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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What's sort of fascinating to me is that look at all the guessing and almost none of it involves long-term disability from the ongoing pandemic despite it being a good candidate for a decent chunk of the very large gap. We won't know for a long time but I won't be surprised by it.

There are other good candidates that experts have been trying to uncover. For example there are some critical roles in the economy that may be understaffed or have high turnover like childcare. For every job not filled in that segment you have 6-8 children (on average) who have to be cared for by someone else that might be preventing work.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Amd with fewer people working, burnout for those left goes up. As burnout goes up, more people become less productive or leave the workforce completely.

Meanwhile, kids' number one career goal is influencer or YouTuber.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:09 pm Meanwhile, kids' number one career goal is influencer or YouTuber.
And why not? I'd imagine you're more likely to be successful and make a million dollars for some random thing you do than if you played the lottery.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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When we were young, we all wanted to be like our media idols, too. Ours were more likely to be sports stars or actors (or, in my case, stunt performers), but we emulated them like crazy. Of course, few of us had the chance to play in a pro league or in film, so the dream died young. The big difference now is that all of the tools and resources the celebrities use are readily available to almost everyone (with the exceptions of concept and talent.)

As an aside, you should have seen the bruises I earned flinging myself down steep hills in cardboard boxes (car crash!), leaping off of too-tall things, and engaging in other risky behavior as a kid because I wanted to be a stunt man. :oops: :lol:
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:20 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:09 pm Meanwhile, kids' number one career goal is influencer or YouTuber.
And why not? I'd imagine you're more likely to be successful and make a million dollars for some random thing you do than if you played the lottery.
Playing the lottery costs a dollar or two with almost zero time cost. Dropping out of the workforce to become a social media star has much higher cost. Even if the odds of making a career of it are good, say 1:10,000, what happens to the 9,999 living at home producing useless content?
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:39 pm Even if the odds of making a career of it are good, say 1:10,000, what happens to the 9,999 living at home producing useless content?
I will continue to maintain there's a shadow economy where boomer / older Gen X parents are working F/T jobs instead of retiring and funneling money to their kids. Again, I have nothing but anecdotes to support this, but what I've seen with extended family members is...surprising.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:41 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:39 pm Even if the odds of making a career of it are good, say 1:10,000, what happens to the 9,999 living at home producing useless content?
I will continue to maintain there's a shadow economy where boomer / older Gen X parents are working F/T jobs instead of retiring and funneling money to their kids. Again, I have nothing but anecdotes to support this, but what I've seen with extended family members is...surprising.
I can add anecdotes.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Both of my kids are taking comp sci classes in middle school and high school. If they stick with it, I don't expect to be supporting them, but if they want to live at home until they have a nice bankroll, I'm cool with that.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:41 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:39 pm Even if the odds of making a career of it are good, say 1:10,000, what happens to the 9,999 living at home producing useless content?
I will continue to maintain there's a shadow economy where boomer / older Gen X parents are working F/T jobs instead of retiring and funneling money to their kids. Again, I have nothing but anecdotes to support this, but what I've seen with extended family members is...surprising.
Trust fund babies. And there were a good collection of X who were already in that class. There were a greater number of Millennials, so it only stands to reason that there is an even larger quantity of Z. Wealth begets wealth. Though you do have to wonder how many trust fund baby daddy are saying "Enough. Get a job, you damned hippie." Especially when they can't get their Arby's on a whim and have to wait too long to get their groceries. To say nothing of waiting a week to see a doctor for what should be priority immediate care.

Historically, trust fund babies went to work pushing TPM or heaven forbid took a service job that benefits the community and amassed even more wealth for their kids but post COVID? shrug What's strange to me, is that they appear to be going to college less, as well. So it's not even waiting until they're 30+ to stare a career or enter the workforce in larger numbers anymore. They're just??? Staring at their phones? Traveling? Don't know. I never led the trust fund baby life. Makes me want to look at migration patterns of the young in the US now and comparing it to the last 25 years or more.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Something like 5% of my location retired in the last 3 months. Most didn't want to, but a quirk in how their pension is calculated in a rising interest rate environment made it pretty much mandatory. The last wave left yesterday. It's really weird being one of the Left Behinds.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LordMortis wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:55 pm migration patterns of the young in the US
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-k ... ation.html
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:41 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:39 pm Even if the odds of making a career of it are good, say 1:10,000, what happens to the 9,999 living at home producing useless content?
I will continue to maintain there's a shadow economy where boomer / older Gen X parents are working F/T jobs instead of retiring and funneling money to their kids. Again, I have nothing but anecdotes to support this, but what I've seen with extended family members is...surprising.
It's more than anecdotes. There is eveidence. It was actually part of the math behind the student debt discussion. This has been a big topic since pre-pandemic times. What I was getting at earlier was that we're not seeing anything in our data telling us that story has changed significantly.

Essentially some percentage of kids have been staying or moving in with the folks and we saw marriage/household formation/number of children stats decline especially from 2008 forward. The data that supports that story pretty much looks the same. It therefore is something we can say is baked in to our understanding of the gap. During the pandemic we left that trend line and saw lots of people consolidate households and then last year we saw many of those new -- best to call them temporary -- households evaporate. It's ultimately part of an existing problem that is the ultimate kick of a can down the road.
Last edited by malchior on Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Neat. If only I could see a history.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LordMortis wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:55 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:41 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:39 pm Even if the odds of making a career of it are good, say 1:10,000, what happens to the 9,999 living at home producing useless content?
I will continue to maintain there's a shadow economy where boomer / older Gen X parents are working F/T jobs instead of retiring and funneling money to their kids. Again, I have nothing but anecdotes to support this, but what I've seen with extended family members is...surprising.
Trust fund babies. And there were a good collection of X who were already in that class. There were a greater number of Millennials, so it only stands to reason that there is an even larger quantity of Z. Wealth begets wealth.
Not trust fund babies, as there is no trust fund involved. Failure to launch. It's kids who finish school and simply... continue. They continue as they always have, living at home while the parents pay their way. Their parents aren't rich, they're simply working longer and harder to pay the bills.

Part of it is the failure of the school system to actually prepare kids for the real world, combined with making public school such a horrible, exhausting experience that there is no desire to continue their education.

Part of it is the brick wall society has built around college, in which we redefined a college degree into what a high school diploma used to mean, then told the kids with little experience at managing their lives to accept decades of heavy debt or to have no hope. All of that mostly succeeds in the kids earning their mandatory high school diplomas, then looking and seeing nothing but hopelessness and misery.

Part of it is the impact that technology has had on young people who have learned to interact remotely rather than face-to-face. Before, after high school, all of your friends would disappear into their lives, and you'd have to go out into the world to meet your social needs. Now staying at home feels both adequate and preferable, while that lost face-to-face communication over the years leading up the that point makes the prospect of being forced to do it every day at a job seriously intimidating.

Part of it is the economic realities. We've been over that one a thousand times. We finished school looking forward to a future with earnings, home ownership, and independence. Now, though, home ownership is a long shot. The only path they see to money is countered with crippling debt from day one.

Not only that, but for those of us who didn't go to (or finish) there were still paths forward. You would go out, get a full-time job to pay for that first apartment and give you insurance. That would give you confidence and a sense of independence, and the motivation to work your way into a stable life. But guess what - these days, the key phrase in most businesses is efficiency. Get the most while giving the least, and that employment model was inefficient. The best someone fresh out of school is likely to get now is a part time job that requires almost full-time hours - usually just short of the hours required for benefits. There are a hundred 35-hours-per-week jobs out there for every job that gives 40 and benefits. That means that even if a young person today charges out on day one and gets a job, they're not going to have insurance. They're also not going to be making enough to pay for even a studio apartment plus food plus utilities. The only way for them to survive is to continue to live at home, denying them that feeling of independence and adulthood.

Society, all in one generation, is having to regress centuries to the idea that homes (and apartments!) and permanently multi-generational. And we don't have the know-how to make that work smoothly. Our society has established 'moving out' as a rite of passage for both adulthood for the kids, and of moving into a new phase of independence for the parents. Without that rite of passage, both are sometimes getting... stuck. The kids aren't feeling like they're adults because nobody knows how to make that shift in perception happen anymore without the kids moving out, and adults aren't moving beyond the 'take care of the kids' mentality because the trigger for that change is now gone.*

And we look at all of that and wonder why young people aren't moving forward the way we did, not recognizing that we moved forward a long time ago, in a world that no longer exists.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:30 pm stuff
I am seeing some of that, but I am also (again, anecdotally) aware of retired and semi-retired boomer / older Gen X adults giving a steady stream of money to their adult children that are out living on their own. A few are even home owners and with families. Here, the adult children are then working part-time hours because their parents are supplementing income. It's closer to the Lord Mortis "trust fund baby" idea, but not exactly the same. What they're doing for health insurance, I have no idea.

But people in my extended family circle with kids that just graduated college or graduated high school and started working an hourly-wage job? Exactly what you're describing above.

I don't think it's explains everything but my sense is that there's not a lot of talk about how much financial support (direct and indirect) boomers and older gen Xers are currently providing to their kids / grand kids from retirement monies and/or working their own jobs still.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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malchior wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:01 pm What's sort of fascinating to me is that look at all the guessing and almost none of it involves long-term disability from the ongoing pandemic despite it being a good candidate for a decent chunk of the very large gap. We won't know for a long time but I won't be surprised by it.
You beat me to it. I was going to say:

I wonder if disability rolls have increased substantially. Social Security disability has long been a refuge for people who choose not to work; the barrier to entry is high, but I know three who eventually found a doctor who labeled them with a disease. I also wonder if private long-term disability cases have grown. I don't imagine that those data are easy to find, but long covid leads me to suspect that they have.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Kraken wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:06 pm I wonder if disability rolls have increased substantially. Social Security disability has long been a refuge for people who choose not to work; the barrier to entry is high, but I know three who eventually found a doctor who labeled them with a disease. I also wonder if private long-term disability cases have grown. I don't imagine that those data are easy to find, but long covid leads me to suspect that they have.
It's hard to say. This report is almost a year old. I would expect the number to increase for 2022 though:
In the early months of the pandemic, the number of people in the labor force declined significantly among most demographic groups. For those with a disability, declines in the labor force were larger—as a percentage change—compared to those without a disability. This is likely related to significant employment declines in industries such as retail trade and leisure and hospitality. Disabled workers are overrepresented in these low-wage and in-person occupations that were particularly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, unemployment rates amongst disabled workers reached a high of 18.9 percent in April 2020, higher than the rate among nondisabled workers of 14.3 percent.
What I haven't seen is an accurate accounting of people that identified as having a disability before the pandemic that are now specifically not working because of a lack of workplace accommodations. In other words, they believe (rightly so) that being in a working environment increases their risk for severe illness based on how things are being handled nationwide.

Interestingly:
But after the initial shocks of the early 2020 labor market, the population with a disability and the number of people with a disability in the labor force increased significantly over the course of 2021. (see Figure 1) Of the 1.2 million additional people with a disability counted in the civilian noninstitutional population, 65 percent*** are under the age of 65. This is a clear indication that the increase in those with a disability is not purely the consequences of an ageing society. In contrast, the population without a disability stayed nearly flat.
Also of note:
New analysis of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data on the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 years and over shows that, in 2021, 1.2 million* more people were identified as having a disability than were in 2020. Within the portion of that population participating in the labor force, there were 496,000 more people with a disability.

Meanwhile, in contrast, the number of nondisabled people in the civilian noninstitutional population decreased by 49,000 people and the number of people without a disability in the labor force decreased by 34,000 people.** An increase in those with a disability in the population and the labor market makes it imperative that workplaces and policymakers take into consideration the needs of disabled people.
Again, it will be interesting to see how this all looks in early 2023 when presumably a new report is released.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

I looked earlier and did find one guy is trying to work on this at the Fed. It's an interesting read if you can get past the economics. :)

New York Fed
Although most of those infected with COVID-19 have recovered relatively quickly, a substantial share has not, and remains symptomatic months or even years later, in what is commonly referred to as long COVID. Data on the incidence of long COVID is scarce, but recent Census Bureau data suggest that sixteen million working age Americans suffer from it. The economic costs of long COVID is estimated to be in the trillions. While many with long COVID have dropped out of the labor force because they can no longer work, many others appear to be working despite having disabilities related to the disease. Indeed, there has been an increase of around 1.7 million disabled persons in the U.S. since the pandemic began, and there are close to one million newly disabled workers. These disabled workers can benefit from workplace accommodations to help them remain productive and stay on the job, particularly as the majority deal with fatigue and brain fog, the hallmarks of long COVID.

COVID-19 Was a Disabling Event

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 19 percent of people who have been infected with COVID currently have some form of long COVID. Some of these so-called long-haulers have relatively mild symptoms that may not significantly interfere with daily life, but others have symptoms serious enough that they have become disabled. Indeed, one study has found that the average level of disability among those with long COVID is similar to Crohn’s disease and the long-term consequences of moderately severe traumatic brain injury. It is not clear if, when, and how those with long COVID will recover. A recent study suggests many eventually do, but the disease is still new, and much remains unknown.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Blackhawk »

Kraken wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:06 pm I wonder if disability rolls have increased substantially.
Unless it is an open-and-shut case (paralyzed, lost limbs, etc), it often takes several years to work through the process. Application, denial, appeal, denial, hearing. If that is (part of) what is going on, we may not know by counting recipients right away.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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I think LM's #1 item, people moving to gig work/independent contractor work has picked up a LOT of the previous shitty fast food restaurant jobs. Amazon/Fedex/UPS warehouses and the drivers for all the shit as well. I also wonder if the PT vs FT designation is making the data look different than reality. I suspect a lot of people might be working just enough hours to pay bills.

Anecdote: I have a 25 YO niece that has a college degree, but is working from 5-11p at the local Fedex warehouse as a trainer. She works MUCH less than 40h a week.

Remember reading an article from a local restaurant chain owner, saying he was constantly losing people to "Amazon" and other small biz owners that he knew were saying the same.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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As I touched on above, a lot of jobs that require full-time commitment are, in fact, part time jobs on the books.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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You also have Amazon and gig jobs promising higher hourly wages for <FT because they don't pay bennies. The big corps and gig labor law skirters can do that.

Some kid will take a $20/hr job with no benefits over a $16/hr job with insurance.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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I can't find the story now, but I read that the biggest demographic that didn't reenter the workforce is middle-aged males (36-45, I think it was) without a college education. They are presumed to be living off their savings, mooching off employed relatives, or participating sporadically in the gig/shadow economy, where they don't count.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Once again, for the people in the back:


The reason capital-aligned right wing groups are spreading disinformation about the efficacy of things like masks, vaccines, and air filtration/ventilation in combatting COVID is that they don’t want demand for new workplace protections/regulations imposed on businesses.

“Everyone is going to get COVID and you can’t stop it” is a lie meant to absolve business of any responsibility or liability to workers.

In the context of schools, there were overlapping goals: Get parents back to work quickly and use a wedge to attack teacher unions and public education to undermine and destroy both

These groups are aggressively anti-labor. They have no qualms about exposing workers and their families to a deadly, debilitating virus for the sake of corporate bottom lines.

This is also accurate ("There’s also a whole bunch of eugenics/long-termism among those groups too"). The workers bearing the brunt of the harms from COVID are poor and working class and disproportionately people of color. Low priority demographics for the right and capital.

Of course, lots of well-meaning (and less well-meaning) people have been misled and radicalized by disinformation. It has successfully poisoned what should be a relatively uncontroversial, straightforward discussion about worker protections.

Denialism has become a religion.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 9:48 pm You also have Amazon and gig jobs promising higher hourly wages for <FT because they don't pay bennies. The big corps and gig labor law skirters can do that.

Some kid will take a $20/hr job with no benefits over a $16/hr job with insurance.
Not just kids. The USPS has to be the largest gig labor law skirter out there. As in, should be investigated by Congress, skirter. For at least the first two years (and sometimes more), you are a FTE in name only - NONE of the benefits. Hell, they even "fire" you at the end of each year and re-hire you 5(?) days later to skirt the law and "reset" the clock as it were. It's obscene.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Nice to see the knives are out:
People still afraid of catching COVID-19 are costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars

More than two years after the coronavirus pandemic began, social distancing is keeping some workers from going back to work.

That’s according to this working paper distributed by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Some people are not prepared to let their guard down — in the knowledge that COVID-19 has not gone away. Some 13% of American workers say they will continue social distancing as the economy opens up and cases fall, and another 45% said they will do so in limited ways. Meanwhile, only 42% of those workers said they plan a “complete return”.

The study, entitled “Long Social Distancing,” estimated that people’s unwillingness to be in close proximity to each other has reduced labor participation by 2.5 percentage points in the first half of 2022 compared to what economists would normally expect to see — translating to $250 billion in potential annual output, representing nearly a 1 percentage-point drop. 
CONSUME
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Those bastards trying to protect their lives and loved ones have cost us a full percent!
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:44 am Nice to see the knives are out:
People still afraid of catching COVID-19 are costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars

More than two years after the coronavirus pandemic began, social distancing is keeping some workers from going back to work.

That’s according to this working paper distributed by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Some people are not prepared to let their guard down — in the knowledge that COVID-19 has not gone away. Some 13% of American workers say they will continue social distancing as the economy opens up and cases fall, and another 45% said they will do so in limited ways. Meanwhile, only 42% of those workers said they plan a “complete return”.

The study, entitled “Long Social Distancing,” estimated that people’s unwillingness to be in close proximity to each other has reduced labor participation by 2.5 percentage points in the first half of 2022 compared to what economists would normally expect to see — translating to $250 billion in potential annual output, representing nearly a 1 percentage-point drop. 
CONSUME
Last night Cramer maintained that government stimulus money is still keeping workers out of the workforce. I really need people to expand on that talking point.

But yeah, I can imagine that many people leading the LordMortis lifestyle of perpetual cheap is hurting the GDP. I'm currently trying to keep a budget of about $30,000 a year until the economy heats back up. It would be about $20,000 if it weren't for the cost of health care. If we get to normalcy, I'll probably still only move up to about $42,000 a year if I can help it.

The goods economy is pretty cold, with more and more Americans adopting frugality. They keep saying it's going to all shift back to service consumption as people are dying to get out and do stuff. I imagine they are right, but I see that they services explosion has been about a year in the discussion and it's yet to happen.

I also still think there is a lot more money exchanging hands under the table, where the gig economy or the side hustle isn't showing on Gub'ment paperwork.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:44 am The study, entitled “Long Social Distancing,” estimated that people’s unwillingness to be in close proximity to each other has reduced labor participation by 2.5 percentage points in the first half of 2022 compared to what economists would normally expect to see — translating to $250 billion in potential annual output, representing nearly a 1 percentage-point drop.
"Long Social Distancing"... :coffee:

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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:58 amBut yeah, I can imagine that many people leading the LordMortis lifestyle of perpetual cheap is hurting the GDP. I'm currently trying to keep a budget of about $30,000 a year until the economy heats back up. It would be about $20,000 if it weren't for the cost of health care. If we get to normalcy, I'll probably still only move up to about $42,000 a year if I can help it.

The goods economy is pretty cold, with more and more Americans adopting frugality. They keep saying it's going to all shift back to service consumption as people are dying to get out and do stuff. I imagine they are right, but I see that they services explosion has been about a year in the discussion and it's yet to happen.
FWIW the big data set say Americans haven't adopted frugality at scale. Aggregate consumer spending has been *expanding* this year. That has been driving sustained inflation even as interest rates and future expectations for growth flagged. We are still seeing strong consumer demand and spotty supply in some sectors - especially housing. In fact, it has gotten excessive to some extent and we're seeing the lowest savings rate in multiple generations now (since the late 1950s). That mirrors the beginning of the pandemic where savings rates skyrocketed to highest rates in generations.
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