Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

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El Guapo
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:00 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:55 pm Biden's running for reelection in 2024 unless he suffers some major health setback that prevents it. All this speculation that he'll decide not to is 95% silly.
We cannot possibly be seriously considering running an 82 year old man for President. That’s either severe civic negligence or elder abuse. Possibly both.
We can and we will, good sir.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:04 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:03 pm No thank you. This is a last stand and that's not a winning ticket.
This.

Harris is wildly unpopular, and it doesn’t really matter why. (Unless it’s something that could be easily fixed with increased coverage that she’s not currently getting).

She wasn’t that popular when she ran for the whole banana.

If this rumor is true:
1. Makes me wonder if the powers that be that ‘create’ the ticket are really pulling for the Democrats.
2. The irony of such a conservative, boring pick is delicious
3. The lack of creativity is astounding and disturbing, considering the stakes of losing. I’m not sure we don’t need a Hail Mary ticket at this point. No idea what that would look like.
4. On a positive note, she’s not within 20 years of being 100 years old
FWIW if Biden did decide not to run and Harris is the nominee, I expect that she would get more popular, because at least some of what's driving her current unpopularity is that she's been almost entirely invisible except for the occasional negative story about her irrelevance or backbiting. If Biden announced that he wasn't running and endorsed Harris (which would probably happen if he didn't run) then she'd get more coverage and get to state her case more. More importantly, partisanship would kick in and her popularity among democrats would tick up (probably more than her popularity among Republicans would tick down), such that she'd wind up within a few points up or down of the current mood on Democrats generally.

Also there's no chance that she'd pick Buttigieg as her VP choice - she'd want a demographically "boring" VP since she'd be leading the ticket as a minority woman. Guessing she'd wind up picking someone like Sherrod Brown.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Pyperkub »

IMHO, Biden needs to use Harris as the lead attack dog on all the Republican Bad Faith Talking points. He can stay above the fray, and she can start nuking these idiots from the bully pulpit.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:07 pmAlso there's no chance that she'd pick Buttigieg as her VP choice - she'd want a demographically "boring" VP since she'd be leading the ticket as a minority woman.
Twist! It will be Biden!!
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:02 pm
Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:00 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:55 pm Biden's running for reelection in 2024 unless he suffers some major health setback that prevents it. All this speculation that he'll decide not to is 95% silly.
We cannot possibly be seriously considering running an 82 year old man for President. That’s either severe civic negligence or elder abuse. Possibly both.
We can and we will, good sir.
/furiously scribbles in the 'Notebook of Future Ridicule and Shaming'
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:54 pm IMHO, Biden needs to use Harris as the lead attack dog on all the Republican Bad Faith Talking points. He can stay above the fray, and she can start nuking these idiots from the bully pulpit.
That's what Jen Psaki has been doing.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Pyperkub »

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:27 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:54 pm IMHO, Biden needs to use Harris as the lead attack dog on all the Republican Bad Faith Talking points. He can stay above the fray, and she can start nuking these idiots from the bully pulpit.
That's what Jen Psaki has been doing.
Right, but she's not a leading candidate for '24. Also, she can't hit the road like Harris can.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Alefroth »

If there is a minimum age, there should be a maximum age.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Pyperkub »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:04 pm If there is a minimum age, there should be a maximum age.
Why? (especially with Alzheimers drugs in testing?)
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Alefroth »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:05 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:04 pm If there is a minimum age, there should be a maximum age.
Why? (especially with Alzheimers drugs in testing?)
Why not? Why have a minimum age other than being an adult?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kraken »

If the 82-year-old man with flagging stamina doesn't run, and their first alternate is a deeply unpopular woman of color, IDK a Dem who would float to the top in a competitive primary. Presumably we'd get some shuffling of the same field we had in 2020, and there weren't any real sparkplugs in that crankcase.

I hope Biden's health holds up and his popularity recovers when he's faced with a hostile Congress.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:14 pm If the 82-year-old man with flagging stamina doesn't run, and their first alternate is a deeply unpopular woman of color, IDK a Dem who would float to the top in a competitive primary. Presumably we'd get some shuffling of the same field we had in 2020, and there weren't any real sparkplugs in that crankcase.

I hope Biden's health holds up and his popularity recovers when he's faced with a hostile Congress.
I'm still a fan of Jeff Merkley. Of course, I still don't know his skeletons and if he developed a platform, he might turn out to be too progressive for me but at the very least I'd like to subscribe to his newsletter. If we reshuffled the 2020 deck then my preference goes back Booker. Warren, as a reluctant 2, has been losing much of her shine for me.

I'm a bit surprised at how little we've heard from Harris. I don't know if that's the news or me or her. I ended up liking her a lot as a VP nom and then the attack dogs went after her on border issues that made very little sense to me and then I've heard nothing. Nothing from the news or the peanut gallery (who were very vocal about her early on) since.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:05 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:04 pm If there is a minimum age, there should be a maximum age.
Why? (especially with Alzheimers drugs in testing?)
Not really sure how to break this to you, because it’s a biggie (you may want to sit down): human beings’ brains and bodies increasingly deteriorate with age.
Spoiler:
Eventually we die. Cease to exist. Stop breathing, thinking, and being.
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:49 am
Pyperkub wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:05 pm
Alefroth wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:04 pm If there is a minimum age, there should be a maximum age.
Why? (especially with Alzheimers drugs in testing?)
Not really sure how yo break this to you, because it’s a biggie (you may want to sit down): human beings’ brains and bodies increasingly deteriorate with age.
Spoiler:
Eventually we die. Cease to exist. Stop breathing, thinking, and being.
And there is a sharp correlation to the decline of several mental and physical factors with advanced age that are important things for a President.

Generally speaking also, much like they could have never envisioned California or the concentration of population undermining our Democracy, they never would have believed that the average lifespan would end up to be what it is now. They set the minimum age of President at 35 and the average lifespan of a white, male was 38 (heavily skewed by infant mortality but all the same it wasn't common to live to 80)! This also isn't an academic issue. We had an aged President who had severe mental decline hidden from us in the near past.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by RunningMn9 »

It just seems weird to say “you aren’t allowed to vote for who you want to vote for because he’s too old”.

It also seems stupid to have a minimum age requirement as well though.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:09 am It just seems weird to say “you aren’t allowed to vote for who you want to vote for because he’s too old”.

It also seems stupid to have a minimum age requirement as well though.
“Aren’t allowed to”?

That is overstating it, to put it mildly. Not even considering the write-in option.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Defiant »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:12 am
RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:09 am It just seems weird to say “you aren’t allowed to vote for who you want to vote for because he’s too old”.

It also seems stupid to have a minimum age requirement as well though.
“Aren’t allowed to”?

That is overstating it, to put it mildly. Not even considering the write-in option.
If there were to be a maximum age, as was suggested, that wouldn't be overstating it at all. A write-in vote for an ineligible candidate wouldn't be valid.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:09 am It just seems weird to say “you aren’t allowed to vote for who you want to vote for because he’s too old”.
In abstract, sure. In reality there are real issues to trade off here. I'm not an advocate for an age cap but it is worth thinking about as we continue to elect older people in a time when we need dynamism to escape the dark path we're on.
It also seems stupid to have a minimum age requirement as well though.
This I'm less confident on. I think this was always a good idea. Especially now that the end of the world is constantly on the line.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Defiant wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:15 am
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:12 am
RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:09 am It just seems weird to say “you aren’t allowed to vote for who you want to vote for because he’s too old”.

It also seems stupid to have a minimum age requirement as well though.
“Aren’t allowed to”?

That is overstating it, to put it mildly. Not even considering the write-in option.
If there were to be a Maximum age, as was suggested, that wouldn't be overstating it at all.
Ah, that makes sense, but it falls apart a bit when you consider all the existing restrictions for who can or can’t be Prez.

There’s a reason we shouldn’t ALLOW Boss Baby to be President.
Or a foreign national.
Or a convicted mass murderer.
Or etc etc.

I personally believe “excessive brain plaque” is just as reasonable as the above reasons. Only half joking there.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:20 am
Defiant wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:15 am
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:12 am
RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:09 am It just seems weird to say “you aren’t allowed to vote for who you want to vote for because he’s too old”.

It also seems stupid to have a minimum age requirement as well though.
“Aren’t allowed to”?

That is overstating it, to put it mildly. Not even considering the write-in option.
If there were to be a Maximum age, as was suggested, that wouldn't be overstating it at all.
Ah, that makes sense, but it falls apart a bit when you consider all the existing restrictions for who can or can’t be Prez.

There’s a reason we shouldn’t ALLOW Boss Baby to be President.
Or a foreign national.
Or a convicted mass murderer.
Or etc etc.

I personally believe “excessive brain plaque” is just as reasonable as the above reasons. Only half joking there.
There aren't many restrictions, though. Convicted mass murderers, for example, are absolutely eligible. It's just 35+ and a natural born citizen.

FWIW I would be fine lowering the minimum age to something like 18 or 21 (though I think it would be a pretty exceptional case for someone in their 20s to be a viable candidate). I don't love the idea of a maximum age, especially one that would apply to Biden (if I had to set a max age, it would be something like 90).
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:27 amFWIW I would be fine lowering the minimum age to something like 18 or 21 (though I think it would be a pretty exceptional case for someone in their 20s to be a viable candidate).
This doesn't make sense to me considering what we know about brain development now. We'd be handing over the keys to nuclear weapons to someone whose judgement centers still aren't fully developed until they'd be 25. I don't think it'd ever happen but just academically speaking I think it isn't a good idea.
I don't love the idea of a maximum age, especially one that would apply to Biden (if I had to set a max age, it would be something like 90).
Abstracting out the hard case of Biden for me it comes down to what we can detect. A physical is all well and good but mental decline is much harder to detect and the risk of it happening suddenly increases drastically with age. In any case, it's also purely academic. We can't pass simple laws anymore with consistency. There is a very low chance we'll get anything approaching a constitutional amendment anytime soon.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Kraken »

Politics is the art of amassing influence. Connections and favors accrue over time, along with experience. Altogether, that defines political power. It would be counterproductive to slap an expiration date on lifelong achievement. Let voters decide if a candidate is too old...or too young. I could be readily persuaded that 21 is a reasonable minimum age for POTUS.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

I thought we learned the “too much freedom, like too little, can be a bad thing” lesson. No? Ok, carry on. :p

Guess we kinda are in the middle to end of that lesson, though, so I’ll cut us some slack.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:41 am I thought we learned the “too much freedom, like too little, can be a bad thing” lesson. No? Ok, carry on. :p

Guess we kinda are in the middle to end of that lesson, though, so I’ll cut us some slack.
Too true!
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Pyperkub »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:27 am
There aren't many restrictions, though. Convicted mass murderers, for example, are absolutely eligible. It's just 35+ and a natural born citizen.

FWIW I would be fine lowering the minimum age to something like 18 or 21 (though I think it would be a pretty exceptional case for someone in their 20s to be a viable candidate). I don't love the idea of a maximum age, especially one that would apply to Biden (if I had to set a max age, it would be something like 90).
I wouldn't. The reasoning behind a minimum age is Wisdom and Experience. It won't always apply (see '16-'20, where we had a President with a 3 Wis) but in general, that time allows one to make mistakes and learn from them).

I still haven't heard any rationale for a maximum age other than Why not?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Isgrimnur »

malchior wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:34 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:27 amFWIW I would be fine lowering the minimum age to something like 18 or 21 (though I think it would be a pretty exceptional case for someone in their 20s to be a viable candidate).
This doesn't make sense to me considering what we know about brain development now. We'd be handing over the keys to nuclear weapons to someone whose judgement centers still aren't fully developed until they'd be 25. I don't think it'd ever happen but just academically speaking I think it isn't a good idea.
I have some bad news for you about who's sitting in those silos.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:33 pm
malchior wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:34 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:27 amFWIW I would be fine lowering the minimum age to something like 18 or 21 (though I think it would be a pretty exceptional case for someone in their 20s to be a viable candidate).
This doesn't make sense to me considering what we know about brain development now. We'd be handing over the keys to nuclear weapons to someone whose judgement centers still aren't fully developed until they'd be 25. I don't think it'd ever happen but just academically speaking I think it isn't a good idea.
I have some bad news for you about who's sitting in those silos.
Sure but they can't launch without the authorization. Though the Generals are a different story. :(
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by RunningMn9 »

I can understand requiring the President to be a citizen, although I think it’s silly to restrict it to only citizens who were born on particular pieces of land.

But the age restrictions just don’t make sense to me - they are expressions of the belief that voters cannot be trusted. Now, 2016 certainly taught me thar voters cannot be trusted, but still.

If a candidate is “too old”, don’t vote for them. It you think a candidate is “too young”, don’t vote for them.

The idea that “I think 25 is too young, so NO ONE else is allowed to vote for them”, just seems weird to me.

That said, we can’t change the minimum age requirement without an amendment, right? Presumably we can’t impose a maximum age limitation without a similar amendment? And amendments aren’t ever happening again, so I don’t think there’s a lot of value in debating it.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:48 pm I can understand requiring the President to be a citizen, although I think it’s silly to restrict it to only citizens who were born on particular pieces of land.

But the age restrictions just don’t make sense to me - they are expressions of the belief that voters cannot be trusted. Now, 2016 certainly taught me thar voters cannot be trusted, but still.

If a candidate is “too old”, don’t vote for them. It you think a candidate is “too young”, don’t vote for them.

The idea that “I think 25 is too young, so NO ONE else is allowed to vote for them”, just seems weird to me.

That said, we can’t change the minimum age requirement without an amendment, right? Presumably we can’t impose a maximum age limitation without a similar amendment? And amendments aren’t ever happening again, so I don’t think there’s a lot of value in debating it.
Yeah, this is pretty much where I am. And FWIW, I think we should allow people who have been naturalized citizens for some defined period of time (something like 10 or 20 years) to run for president. I don't want either of them to be president, but it's silly that people like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jennifer Granholm are ineligible to run for president. It's even sillier that people who came to the U.S. when they were infants can't run for president.

But of course, none of that is ever going to change.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:55 pmBut of course, none of that is ever going to change.
Right. I'd say the country falls apart before then. In the extremely unlike scenario that we were somehow in a position to change the constitution these type of technical parameters around Presidential eligibility are probably going to be the least of our worries at that point.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:09 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:55 pmBut of course, none of that is ever going to change.
Right. I'd say the country falls apart before then. In the extremely unlike scenario that we were somehow in a position to change the constitution these type of technical parameters around Presidential eligibility are probably going to be the least of our worries at that point.
FWIW I'm increasingly of the view that some type of constitutional convention is inevitable over the long term, although things will probably have to get really, really, really bad (probably a period of overt autocracy) before that point.
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Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Zarathud »

We can’t pass legislation with the current political divide. The idea we can have a Constitutional Convention is ridiculous.

If we can restore sanity, we won’t need to change the rules anymore.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LordMortis »

I have easy solution. Use this link to vote my friend for president. Do it now please.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Blackhawk »

RunningMn9 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:48 pm
they are expressions of the belief that voters cannot be trusted.
This is a belief I share. I'm fine with laws that at least eliminate (some of) the clearly unqualified potential candidates. After what happened in 2016, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 16 year old get voted in to office if he said the right things and appealed to the right fears and paranoia.

I'm fine with a minimum age. Make it 25 (the age at which the brain is mostly matured), or 32 (the age at which the brain is fully matured.) And while I don't think there should be a maximum age, I'd be fine with some sort of basic cognitive test to detect mental degeneration (at any age.)
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Smoove_B »

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:08 pm I'd be fine with some sort of basic cognitive test to detect mental degeneration (at any age.)
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What more do you want?

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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:15 pm
Blackhawk wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:08 pm I'd be fine with some sort of basic cognitive test to detect mental degeneration (at any age.)
Person, woman, man, camera, TV.

What more do you want?

(we are so fuct)
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by El Guapo »

Zarathud wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:03 pm We can’t pass legislation with the current political divide. The idea we can have a Constitutional Convention is ridiculous.

If we can restore sanity, we won’t need to change the rules anymore.
This would be in something like 50 or so years, after we endure at least a decades of Trump family rule and probably a few wars, the effects of hyper-accelerated climate change, etc.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Isgrimnur »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:17 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:15 pm
Blackhawk wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:08 pm I'd be fine with some sort of basic cognitive test to detect mental degeneration (at any age.)
Person, woman, man, camera, TV.

What more do you want?

(we are so fuct)
:wub:
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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gbasden
Posts: 7664
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 1:57 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by gbasden »

Blackhawk wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:08 pm I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 16 year old get voted in to office if he said the right things and appealed to the right fears and paranoia.
Like Rittenhouse?
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Alefroth
Posts: 8489
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:56 pm
Location: Bellingham WA

Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Post by Alefroth »

Pyperkub wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:30 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:27 am
There aren't many restrictions, though. Convicted mass murderers, for example, are absolutely eligible. It's just 35+ and a natural born citizen.

FWIW I would be fine lowering the minimum age to something like 18 or 21 (though I think it would be a pretty exceptional case for someone in their 20s to be a viable candidate). I don't love the idea of a maximum age, especially one that would apply to Biden (if I had to set a max age, it would be something like 90).
I wouldn't. The reasoning behind a minimum age is Wisdom and Experience. It won't always apply (see '16-'20, where we had a President with a 3 Wis) but in general, that time allows one to make mistakes and learn from them).

I still haven't heard any rationale for a maximum age other than Why not?
Being 35+ doesn't automatically make you wise and experienced. It's an arbitrary age. Why can't a 34 year old have as much useful Wis and XP as a 36 year old? Being 90 highly increases the chance you'll make decisions as bad as an 18 year old. Or a narcissist.
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