You're probably right, although my understanding is that a single negative result from a rapid test is inconclusive due to the relative high rate of false negatives. IIRC, the guidance I saw was that a negative test result should be followed up with a second test a day later to confirm the result.
The Ontario Science Table did review the sensitivity of rapid tests against the Delta and Omicron variants and found, in unpublished studies, that the sensitivity against Omicron was clearly lower than it was for Delta. Its analysis suggested that the sensitivity of rapid tests to detect the Omicron variant was 37 percent, compared to 81 percent for Delta. In effect, this means that if 100 people had COVID and were infected with the Omicron variant, only 37 of them would get a positive result and the others would get a falsely negative result.
On the surface, this would seem concerning and would likely explain why many people have reported testing negative at first only to then be diagnosed with COVID-19 a few days later. But, it’s important to point out the test sensitivity does vary between studies and another unpublished study not included in that review found that the sensitivity of the tests with respect to Omicron ranged between 65 and 95 percent in the different patient populations. Also, while test sensitivity was low overall, it was over 80 percent after Day 3 of the infection and improved considerably with repeat testing.
Whether the genetic changes in new variants are having an impact on test accuracy is not entirely clear. Part of the problem is that the predictive value of test changes as disease prevalence changes. As diseases become more common, the relative number of true positives vs. false positives shifts and we get fewer false positives but consequently more false negatives. So as COVID cases surge, we must expect more false negatives, for purely mathematical reasons.
The solution, though, is clear. If you think you have COVID and test negative, you need to test again.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
I've also read that home tests are of little value in asymptomatic people. Since I feel fine and was potentially exposed only three days ago, a home test right now would almost surely be negative.
I was sort of thinking out loud (posting out loud?) because I've interacted with a few people lately who were one-and-done even though they were symptomatic, but had a negative result from a home test. Until I found that McGill article just now, I hadn't realized how much test sensitivity has degraded with the newer variants. It makes sense, though, if the virus has been mutating in ways that change the features that a test originally relied on. The tests and vaccines were designed for the original virus, but that's ancient history. A lot has changed in the decades since the spring of 2020.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
Some good news on the potential updated booster from Moderna:
Moderna’s experimental COVID-19 vaccine that combines its original shot with protection against the omicron variant appears to work, the company announced Wednesday.
COVID-19 vaccine makers are studying updated boosters that might be offered in the fall to better protect people against future coronavirus surges.
Moderna’s preliminary study results show people given the combination shot experienced an eight-fold increase in virus-fighting antibodies capable of targeting the omicron mutant, the company announced.
...
So U.S. regulators, and the World Health Organization, are considering whether to order a change in the vaccine recipe for a new round of booster shots in the fall — when cold weather and kids returning to school are expected to drive yet another surge.
Key questions: How to make that change without losing the continued strong protection against COVID-19′s worst outcomes? And what’s the right variant to target? After the huge winter omicron surge, that mutant’s genetically distinct siblings now are the main threats, including one that’s fueling the current U.S. wave of infections.
The Food and Drug Administration has set a meeting in late June for its scientific advisers to debate those questions and evaluate data from vaccine makers’ tests of potential new formulas. Pfizer also is studying a combination shot, what scientists call a bivalent vaccine.
Caveat:
The study was performed in 437 people, and safety was similar to today’s boosters, Moderna said. The results were announced in a press release and haven’t undergone scientific review.
In related news, Novavax has support in the FDA for us in America, but full approval is still needed.
Large studies in the U.S., Mexico and Britain found two doses of the Novavax vaccine were safe and about 90% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19. One complication: Those studies were done far earlier in the pandemic.
Novavax chief medical officer Dr. Filip Dubovsky said tests of a booster dose revved up virus-fighting antibodies that could tackle the omicron mutant, data that FDA will have to consider later.
Noravax is a more "traditional" vaccine - like what you get for influenza. It's an inactivated protein (elements of the virus) that prompts an immune response. The idea is that because the vaccine will be using a more traditional approach, the vaccine holdouts will feel more comfortable using a standard that's been around for decades.
I personally doubt it, but more options is better - especially considering it's more stable and therefore easier to store and transport.
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:27 am
Some good news on the potential updated booster from Moderna:
Nice timing--I was just wondering to myself what the status of this was while walking the dogs this morning. Specifically, it seems that if we're going to have an Omicron-specific booster in 'fall,' then we would need to settle on the specifics post-haste. So, meeting in late June. Are we likely to move forward at that point? Is there a target date for a booster campaign to start? Assuming that's Sept or early Oct, when would production need to go hog-wild? July?
I'm all for this, but I'm starting to get vibes similar to the under-5 approval process here. Seems like go time is now on this. Hopefully I'm simply ignorant, and it'll be possible to go from studying the new booster to poking hundreds of millions of arms in a very short amount of time.
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:45 am
I'm all for this, but I'm starting to get vibes similar to the under-5 approval process here. Seems like go time is now on this. Hopefully I'm simply ignorant, and it'll be possible to go from studying the new booster to poking hundreds of millions of arms in a very short amount of time.
It's a good set of questions; I'm not entirely sure. My take on what's been reported (and to drift into R&P) is that so much of what's possible is based on how much money Congress is willing to provide. If they don't provide enough, production (and availability) might be scaled back considerably.
Regardless, vaccine uptake has stalled with people that need Shot #3 that haven't opted to get one. I can understand why companies might not want to front production on speculation (at least for domestic use) - Americans are not...engaging. I fear for the <5 crowd there's going to be a flurry of vaccinations but ultimate update is going to be embarrassingly low.
stessier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:04 amI will get a booster when it is offered. My last shot was November and I'm feeling a bit naked.
My booster was back in December and I'm not currently eligible for a second one. I have no idea what's planned here (Canada and/or Ontario) with regard to additional rounds of boosters later in the year.
All I know for sure about upcoming plans is that all the remaining provincial NPI mandates (masks in long-term care facilities, on public transit, etc) expire on Sunday and that the federal government will stop supplying home test kits at the end of the year. Because, you know, the pandemic is over.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
stessier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:04 amI will get a booster when it is offered. My last shot was November and I'm feeling a bit naked.
I am the same. Not enjoying it.
I'm not sure where I'm at. I've had four shots earlier than most because I'm on Remicaid. I think I got the last one in late February. By my accounting I plan to get "the second booster" or for me, my 5th shot, in mid to late August to get my immunity boosted before school starts and all the seasonal triggers go haywire again. I have no idea if my plan and the medical community and the government will all be on the same page. I also hope that the vaccine will be "updated" by then to be more effective against the current and coming strains.
I'm not real excited for the next one. My bodies reaction was more violent on shot four than it was on previous shots. Theoretically, that's means it working better, or so XKCD told me but there's a point where that's not going to be so great for me. Fortunately, unemployment can see me knocked out for two days but that doesn't mean I'm looking forward to it.
Since finding out people can get paralyzed from this shot Im in no hurry for a 5th shot any longer.
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:11 pm
Since finding out people can get paralyzed from this shot Im in no hurry for a 5th shot any longer.
Yeah, I don't know what circles you've been visiting during these dark times, but you're clearly getting disinformation. What I've learned is that people make a decision ("I'm not wearing masks anymore!"; "I'm not getting vaccinated!") and then back into a grifter promoting that message and so they feel like they're making an informed choice.
Getting a 1st booster for the kids. Looks like CDC doesn't have me needing a 2nd yet.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Pharmacies are starting to gear up for the under 5 crowd:
The government allowed pharmacies and states to start placing orders last week, with 5 million doses initially available — half of them made by Pfizer and the other half produced by Moderna, senior administration officials said.
As of this week, about 1.45 million of the 2.5 million available doses of Pfizer have been ordered, and about 850,000 of available Moderna shots have been ordered, officials said. More orders are expected in the coming days.
However:
It’s not clear how popular the shots will be. A recent survey suggests only 1 in 5 parents of young children would get their kids vaccinated right away.
And public health officials have been disappointed at how many older U.S. children, who have been eligible for shots for months, have yet to be vaccinated: Less than one-third of kids ages 5 to 11 have gotten the two recommended doses, according to government figures.
Still makes me thankful that somehow my school district, with a nationally-recognized dysfunctional school board and in a very red county, has been well over 50% vaccinated for months. I believe we're over 60% now.
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:06 am
Pharmacies are starting to gear up for the under 5 crowd:
The government allowed pharmacies and states to start placing orders last week, with 5 million doses initially available — half of them made by Pfizer and the other half produced by Moderna, senior administration officials said.
As of this week, about 1.45 million of the 2.5 million available doses of Pfizer have been ordered, and about 850,000 of available Moderna shots have been ordered, officials said. More orders are expected in the coming days.
However:
It’s not clear how popular the shots will be. A recent survey suggests only 1 in 5 parents of young children would get their kids vaccinated right away.
And public health officials have been disappointed at how many older U.S. children, who have been eligible for shots for months, have yet to be vaccinated: Less than one-third of kids ages 5 to 11 have gotten the two recommended doses, according to government figures.
Funny how this is a lose-lose situation when it comes to timing. If the shots for children came out quickly, 50% of people would worry they were rushed ("Warp Speed" can't be safe!) and if they come out after a long period, then 50% of the people fall victim to mis/disinformation that comes from the delay time.
ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:41 pm
Are you people not over 50 yet? Or just not far enough away from the first booster?
I'm 68 and got my second booster in early April as soon as they were available. I'm not 100% sure, but I think that all 50+ are eligible here in Florida for the second booster.
My father said that anything is interesting if you bother to read about it - Michael C. Harrold
Food and Drug Administration advisers voted Wednesday to recommend authorizing Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine for children ages 6 months to 5 years, clearing one of the final hurdles to getting the youngest Americans vaccinated.
The unanimous recommendation was the first of two votes called by the Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee during its Wednesday meeting.
Pfizer vote will be happening at some point today as well and I'd be amazed if it was anything other than a full approval as well.
The Food and Drug Administration on Friday authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Covid vaccines for use in children as young as 6 months of age, setting the stage for a government push to make the shots available for the youngest children.
The decision comes less than two days after a panel advising the FDA voted unanimously to recommend authorization, saying their benefits would outweigh any risks for young kids.
What's next?
Before families can start to avail themselves of the vaccines, though, an advisory committee for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention needs to recommend the shots, too, and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky must accept the recommendation. The group meets Friday and Saturday, when the votes will be held.
The Biden administration is already prepared to roll out the vaccine. On June 9, the administration said that should the vaccines be authorized and recommended by the CDC, it would be ready with 10 million available doses, with millions more on the way.
Welp, our number finally came up: Wife is coughing up a storm and tested positive for covid tonight in two different home tests; I tested negative in both of them and don't have any symptoms. I'm going to keep away from her as much as I can but we share a very small house. I'll keep testing daily for the next few days.
We're supposed to drive to Michigan on Thursday. I don't think that's going to happen now; being confined together in a car for 16 hours is not wise. (She's like, "I'll wear a mask and we can keep the windows open"...LOL nope.) I'm going to have to miss my sister's memorial service, or go alone, which sounds double un-fun.
She shouldn't have taken that business trip to Canada last week, but her travel budget is use-it-or-lose-it and her boss pushed her to use it.
Speaking of business trips to Canada...my company is headquartered in Toronto, and pre-COVID my department used to have an annual 3-day get-together/conference/training thing there. It was canceled in 2020 and 2021, but this year they were hellbent on doing it. I got back last Thursday, spiked a fever on Friday, and tested positive early on Saturday. Feeling better today, although the fever hasn't completely gone away yet. If it does, I might take another test on Wednesday to see it comes up negative (to start figuring out when I stop being contagious).
That whole Toronto conference ended up being a massive super-spreader event. I heard through the (virtual) grapevine today that 30+ people out of 110 tested positive.
Right now I'm leaning toward going by myself. Everything is arranged and I have a nice car that I could drive instead of the rental. As much I I hate traveling, I can do this and I feel strongly that I need to be there. OTOH, I'm not sure I can leave a sick Wife and cat behind. Wife spent many hours and not a little money organizing this thing because nobody else was doing it. It's heartbreaking that she can't go after everything she's given it. But if I'm still testing negative on Thursday, I might take a road trip by myself.
Father-In-Law tested positive for Covid yesterday and his brother passed away this morning (Not Covid-it was expected since Hospice was called in last week) but now we cannot take him to Lexington for the funeral.
The only reason people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
