COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

[LordMortis]

As the last of my tiny social circle is going down with COVID, with the exception of family I am the last of the uninfected. Today, my PCP suggested it is likely just a matter of time and that I should start going out, even to the bar, that isolation will cause more harm than infection likely will. He suggested that if I get symptoms to contact them right away but that I need to get out. Just stay up to date with vaccine and let them know if ASAP if I get sick. His likening was that solitary confinement is the harshest of prison sentences.

It may be time...

[Smoove_B]

Doctors encouraging people to get infected is totally normal - they do that all the time, right? Did he also offer you a pack of Lucky Strikes, because they are less irritating to the throat?

I mean, really.

[Scuzz]

As the last of my tiny social circle is going down with COVID, with the exception of family I am the last of the uninfected. Today, my PCP suggested it is likely just a matter of time and that I should start going out, even to the bar, that isolation will cause more harm than infection likely will. He suggested that if I get symptoms to contact them right away but that I need to get out. Just stay up to date with vaccine and let them know if ASAP if I get sick. His likening was that solitary confinement is the harshest of prison sentences.

It may be time...

Mental health more important than physical health?

[Max Peck]

I haven't actually talked to my doctor about COVID since the very beginning of the pandemic (when he was still expecting it to be a matter of weeks before it was brought under control), just the other routine things I have going on (blood pressure, cholesterol, etc). I have noticed that his clinic hasn't relaxed their COVID precautions and all my appointments since the start of the pandemic have been by phone, so that's probably a good sign that they aren't prepared to surrender to the virus just yet.

[Zaxxon]

Doctors encouraging people to get infected is totally normal - they do that all the time, right? Did he also offer you a pack of Lucky Strikes, because they are less irritating to the throat?

I mean, really.

At some point we probably need to reckon with the fact that COVID isn't going away.

[Smoove_B]

At some point we probably need to reckon with the fact that COVID isn't going away.

There's a difference between telling an at-risk person to raw-dog random air in a bar vs telling them to make calculated decisions on socializing. Like say, hanging out/socializing in an outdoor environment. Or spending time with trusted friends that you'd hope are trying not to inadvertently make you ill.

There is still value in (1) delaying your first infection and (2) minimizing multiple re-infections. There's also (still) the indirect benefit provided to others that are high(er) risk in not trying to normalize infection.

[LordMortis]

As the last of my tiny social circle is going down with COVID, with the exception of family I am the last of the uninfected. Today, my PCP suggested it is likely just a matter of time and that I should start going out, even to the bar, that isolation will cause more harm than infection likely will. He suggested that if I get symptoms to contact them right away but that I need to get out. Just stay up to date with vaccine and let them know if ASAP if I get sick. His likening was that solitary confinement is the harshest of prison sentences.

It may be time...

Mental health more important than physical health?

His suggestion is that mental health affects physical health and eventually the damage being done becomes the costs of one vs the (potential) costs of the other.

[Zaxxon]

At some point we probably need to reckon with the fact that COVID isn't going away.

There's a difference between telling an at-risk person to raw-dog random air in a bar vs telling them to make calculated decisions on socializing. Like say, hanging out/socializing in an outdoor environment. Or spending time with trusted friends that you'd hope are trying not to inadvertently make you ill.

Absolutely. I'm just saying that there is a mental health aspect to this all, and we know specifically from prior posts of his that for LM the staying in part has taken a toll. It doesn't seem outrageous to me that doctors are not all still pushing the doomed 'avoid infection forever' advice.

There is still value in (1) delaying your first infection and (2) minimizing multiple re-infections. There's also (still) the indirect benefit provided to others that are high(er) risk in not trying to normalize infection.

Yes. But what I'm wondering is if--as now seems all but guaranteed--COVID is here to stay not for another year or two, but ten, twenty, fifty... At what point does the risk calculus change? Most people can't avoid infection, and most also can't even effectively minimize re-infection indefinitely. Is the long-term advice just going to be for the privileged to live a largely solitary life, shifting their COVID risk to the service class and permanently assuming a higher mental health risk (and therefore also physical health risk)?

There is no good answer, and 'keep largely avoiding others indefinitely' is certainly not it, especially when it has no effect on the populace at large.

[Edit- LM ninjaed me]

[Smoove_B]

His suggestion is that mental health affects physical health and eventually the damage being done becomes the costs of one vs the (potential) costs of the other.

The converse is also true - physical health influences mental health. It's all connected. The trick is trying to find what works best to address all of your needs (mental, physical and social health).

[gilraen]

Yes. But what I'm wondering is if--as now seems all but guaranteed--COVID is here to stay not for another year or two, but ten, twenty, fifty... At what point does the risk calculus change?

Personally, I'm waiting (and hoping) for more science and some kind of solution for long COVID. If they can figure out the cause of the damage and the treatment for that exact cause (not just treatment to ease symptoms) - that would be a whole different conversation. I didn't have too much of a problem, say, catching the flu from a coworker in the office. Sure, nothing pleasant about the flu, but for a reasonably healthy person, it wasn't a big deal. If I catch COVID again, I may be fine in a week, or I may end up with diabetes, or "brain fog" bad enough where I can't work anymore, or any other long COVID issue that will rob me of my quality of life for years to come. That's my calculus - and the type of dice I'm simply not willing to roll.

So, for instance, as much as I want to go to a hockey game, my enjoyment of it would be severely hampered with the possibility of infection constantly at the back of my mind (since I would be the only person wearing a mask). We've been to restaurants a handful of times since 2021, but that was basically a calculated risk for special occasions (family birthdays, an old friend in town for the first time in years, that sort of thing). No more just going out for dinner on a random night because we felt like it. But then again, I'm weird and antisocial and I can easily go for weeks, if not months, without leaving the house. So my mental health calculation would be very different from someone like LM, who is explicitly missing social activities.

[Smoove_B]

At what point does the risk calculus change?

I've mentioned it before, but the risk calculus changes when we understand what Long (or Medium) COVID really is and how to treat it. I am still very much in the camp that we're deeply in the "finding out" phase of the pandemic. We've done a great job at reducing death. Where we're floundering (understandably) is addressing the gap between "death" and "fully recovered".

Most people can't avoid infection, and most also can't even effectively minimize re-infection indefinitely. Is the long-term advice just going to be for the privileged to live a largely solitary life, shifting their COVID risk to the service class and permanently assuming a higher mental health risk (and therefore also physical health risk)?

I don't know, though I do fully acknowledge my behaviors thus far come from privilege and there has absolutely been a cost, personally and likely professionally. These costs have also been shared by members of my family. I don't get the impression a significant number of privileged folks are living a life of seclusion - quite the opposite. Instead, it's people at high risk that have been pushed out of the public places they need to be because the overwhelming majority of folks have decided their individual needs are more important.

There is no good answer, and 'keep largely avoiding others indefinitely' is certainly not it, especially when it has no effect on the populace at large.

There really isn't. However, there are entire segments of our population that are indeed largely avoiding others indefinitely because of their own individual risk and our collective dismissal of their situation. I'll fully admit I was largely blind to their plight before the pandemic, but now that I've seen it, I can't just ignore it. And like Ned Stark, I'll likely senselessly die on the hill - but I'll be masked.

[Zaxxon]

Personally, I'm waiting (and hoping) for more science and some kind of solution for long COVID. If they can figure out the cause of the damage and the treatment for that exact cause (not just treatment to ease symptoms) - that would be a whole different conversation. I didn't have too much of a problem, say, catching the flu from a coworker in the office. Sure, nothing pleasant about the flu, but for a reasonably healthy person, it wasn't a big deal. If I catch COVID again, I may be fine in a week, or I may end up with diabetes, or "brain fog" bad enough where I can't work anymore, or any other long COVID issue that will rob me of my quality of life for years to come. That's my calculus - and the type of dice I'm simply not willing to roll.

I'm with you on this. But let's say a year from now we're no closer to having that answer. Then what? Two years? Five?

So, for instance, as much as I want to go to a hockey game, my enjoyment of it would be severely hampered with the possibility of infection constantly at the back of my mind (since I would be the only person wearing a mask). We've been to restaurants a handful of times since 2021, but that was basically a calculated risk for special occasions (family birthdays, an old friend in town for the first time in years, that sort of thing). No more just going out for dinner on a random night because we felt like it. But then again, I'm weird and antisocial and I can easily go for weeks, if not months, without leaving the house. So my mental health calculation would be very different from someone like LM, who is explicitly missing social activities.

Same boat on both of these (just sold my tickets for my first Avs game this season earlier today, in fact. Sigh.). When we do go out to eat--something we just re-started a few months back--it's outside. This will become problematic in a few weeks, when the temps get low again. I'm weird and somewhat antisocial, too, but am more on the LM side where not having had a casual brewery meetup in going on three years has taken its own toll.

At what point does the risk calculus change?

I've mentioned it before, but the risk calculus changes when we understand what Long (or Medium) COVID really is and how to treat it. I am still very much in the camp that we're deeply in the "finding out" phase of the pandemic. We've done a great job at reducing death. Where we're floundering (understandably) is addressing the gap between "death" and "fully recovered".

Same response as to gilraen--I am with you in principle, but there's no guarantee we have those answers anytime soon. I'm asking for a concrete answer as to when that becomes a problem for you. Is it the case that living potentially the rest of your life without 'normal' social interaction is worth the reduction in risk to you? That's the vibe you're tossing around, and I just want to explicitly understand whether I'm picking up on it accurately.

I don't get the impression a significant number of privileged folks are living a life of seclusion - quite the opposite.

Surely. I'm referring to the privileged folk who can take your advice and live a life of seclusion, not to the privileged class in general. Clearly they are not taking your advice.

Instead, it's people at high risk that have been pushed out of the public places they need to be because the overwhelming majority of folks have decided their individual needs are more important.

Same as it ever was.

However, there are entire segments of our population that are indeed largely avoiding others indefinitely because of their own individual risk and our collective dismissal of their situation. I'll fully admit I was largely blind to their plight before the pandemic, but now that I've seen it, I can't just ignore it. And like Ned Stark, I'll likely senselessly die on the hill - but I'll be masked.

This is admirable, and is a sentiment I try to follow, as well. Whether I'm willing to go volunteer at my kids' school where no one's masked, or go to a hockey game, I'm very cognizant of the large group of [immunocompromised, otherwise high-risk] folks for whom these activities are and will remain for a very long time unthinkable. I carry a mask with me everywhere outside the house, and will happily wear it on a plane, train, etc as needed. I'll continue to get whatever shots are recommended, for as long as they are recommended.

But it's again talking around the core question I raised--whether I do these things has very little impact on those folks, since society in general has determined to continue the fuck around and find out party. There aren't enough of the Smooves, Zaxxons, LMs, et al to have a strong enough impact to tilt the pandemic one way or the other.

So we're again back to 'it's not going away, and we may or may not ever have a solid answer on the causes/prevalence of long COVID,' much less a silver bullet fix. At what point do you return to living life 'normally?' Is there such a point? If not, why was there one before COVID, when the actions of the masses also had a disproportionate impact on the marginalized/high risk folks? It's not like this is a new phenomenon.

If this feels like deja vu, it's because it is--I recall a similar discussion around two years ago. And nothing's changed. That's causing its own mental health issue for me, as I see no objective reason to think that we won't be here having this conversation again two years from now.

[LordMortis]

And for you it's both much more easy and much more difficult. I sit alone a home all day every day. I get out to game with usually one person about twice a month (cancelled for the moment because he has COVID after staring to live his life a bit more actively). Sometimes two or three people (All of whom have now had COVID). I try to see my parents every week (whom also largely isolate, except for church (Oi!) and providing the needy at food kitchens (Oi!!!!) and lunches with me at quiet restaurants). Aside from that it's grocery shopping. That's it. I'm anti social but 2 and 2/3rds years is getting to be a bit much for me. And the few people who invite me out are understandably considerate of me less and less. (I also wonder if I have any social skills left of if when I finally to do go out, I'll just want to go back home. )

At the same time, not having people means I don't have kids whose development has to a primary, if not the primary motivator in any parents life. Having them miss out on anything has to be hurt your soul every time it happens, much less, you know, theirs. I'm also not stepping on someone else' stress all the time as they step on mine with no avenue to get away.

[Max Peck]

I was an urban hermit long before COVID came along.

[Zaxxon]

At the same time, not having people means I don't have kids whose development has to a primary, if not the primary motivator in any parents life. Having them miss out on anything has to be hurt your soul every time it happens, much less, you know, theirs. I'm also not stepping on someone else' stress all the time as they step on mine with no avenue to get away.

I'll freely admit this has been the primary driver for me. I miss hockey games, I miss brew club meetups. But what killed me was my kids missing 2 1/2 years of birthday parties, sleepovers, even routine 'play dates,' and those they did have being awkward due to our insistence on masks.

Even since letting them go to school without masks ~2 months ago, the change in their happiness is night and day. Volunteering at school and seeing each others' faces has been a huge mental boost. My daughter had her first birthday party since 25% of her life ago and it was glorious for her.

Yet in the back of my mind is a constant voice wondering whether I'm fucking something up for them, or contributing to misery for the less fortunate.

This all sucks, and I do not enjoy it.

[Blackhawk]

Like say, hanging out/socializing in an outdoor environment. Or spending time with trusted friends that you'd hope are trying not to inadvertently make you ill.

Not that I disagree with your core premise, but that was all a lot easier to achieve when other people were interested in doing the same. These days if you suggested a COVID-cautious event, a majority of people (possibly nearly all) would find that they have a previous commitment.

Some things require that other people are willing to play along.

[Scuzz]

It is not unusual to be watching a sporting event on TV and see numerous people still wearing masks. Same with the grocery store.

Unless you have a condition or spend a lot of time around people with some condition I would recommend trying to lead a normal life with a mask and distancing.

I have that odds are we (most of us) have had Covid-19 at some point. Granted there are still those who could suffer more than others but that is true with almost every seasonal disease. Regular flu kills thousands.

[em2nought]

Everything they've done has made it more likely that I would get the virus, but I haven't yet. I used to go shopping after midnight most of the time. Now I have to shop when there are other people in the stores. I still have a sliced piece of pvc that I slip over shopping cart handles so I never have to touch the carts. I'll never go back to bare hands, I didn't much like touching those toddler germ fests anyway. Getting a flu shot soon, but haven't decided on another booster or not. I don't think I want more Moderna so if I do get another booster is won't be one of those. I hold them responsible for my mother dying badly due to being isolated from family even though she didn't have covid. She should have gone quietly with her DNR, but they brought her back to have a few miserable weeks with broken ribs and no family contact before finally letting me in to see her the day she passed. I did not want to take her to the hospital that day, I wish I'd tried harder to talk her out of it. She could have died peacefully in her own bed.

In Thailand they could buy insurance for 600 baht that paid out a million baht ($30,000.00 US) if you got covid and recovered. Once people found out that it actually paid out they were doing everything they could to try and catch the bug. Some insurance companies went belly up, and the other ones cancelled the insurance and refunded the money. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coron ... VID-claims

[Smoove_B]

Sorry for the delay; yesterday was my day in the barrel (i.e. commute to work)

Same response as to gilraen--I am with you in principle, but there's no guarantee we have those answers anytime soon. I'm asking for a concrete answer as to when that becomes a problem for you. Is it the case that living potentially the rest of your life without 'normal' social interaction is worth the reduction in risk to you? That's the vibe you're tossing around, and I just want to explicitly understand whether I'm picking up on it accurately.

I think part of the problem is you're assuming I had a "normal" social life before COVID-19.

But seriously, I had hoped this last spring and summer were going to be better. However, for reasons unrelated (directly) to COVID-19, it was a horrific ~6/7 month stretch of my life. As we head into another pandemic winter I'm not going to test out my new booster to see how well it functions, so my short answer is that I'm hoping Spring 2023 is better (again). I've made it this far; I can do another 6 months. The list of things I've missed (that my family has missed) is large; 6 more months isn't going to change or make up for any of it as those days are gone.

As I've been saying, I can't turn off my brain. I can't do things I know are problematic. I guess it would be like an IT security specialist advocating for all kinds of password safety and then setting up a new bank account for themselves and using "1234" as their password. It's a sloppy analogy, but I can't really think of a better way to present it. There's a Twitter account that was created to represent the "voice" of SARS-CoV-2. The last month or so they've been posting pictures of doctors, infectious disease specialists, ICU nurses, disease research academics, etc... at conferences completely unmasked. I don't know how they got to that point and being able to turn off everything they know, but I'm not there and I don't know that I'll ever be.

My parents (in their 70s) are mostly cautious, but they are back to eating at restaurants and have been for some time. For them (and their peers) I get the sense many have just decided this isn't how they wanted to live out their "golden years" and so they're just doing whatever. I don't understand it (how can I?) but maybe if I was in my 70s I'd have a different view. I also have an extended family member with Lupus (no really, it's Lupus). It was bad enough at one point that they received chemo and have experienced numerous (minor) flare ups over the last decade. Medication and stress management have kept it in check, thankfully. However, they've also decided they've had enough with masking and social distancing. Not really sure what I think about it, but whatever mental gymnastics that have occurred, I'm not sure.

I guess I'm sharing that as a way to at least illustrate i see a variety of takes on things. I can only reiterate that (for me) now is not the time to change course. Spring 2023? I'll evaluate it again then.

Same as it ever was.

True. Though for whatever reason (to me) it feels more magnified right now.

But it's again talking around the core question I raised--whether I do these things has very little impact on those folks, since society in general has determined to continue the fuck around and find out party. There aren't enough of the Smooves, Zaxxons, LMs, et al to have a strong enough impact to tilt the pandemic one way or the other.

Maybe. What if I told you I've heard from someone where I work that is appreciative that I made sure our work space is safer and inclusive by enforcing (and now apparently mandating) masks? I'm not crazy enough to believe I'm in any way impacting society at large, but our individual actions can ripple out in ways we don't realize. And for the relatively brief interactions I'm having in this situation, I'm doing what I can to make the space safer for everyone; it's something.

So we're again back to 'it's not going away, and we may or may not ever have a solid answer on the causes/prevalence of long COVID,' much less a silver bullet fix. At what point do you return to living life 'normally?' Is there such a point? If not, why was there one before COVID, when the actions of the masses also had a disproportionate impact on the marginalized/high risk folks? It's not like this is a new phenomenon.

Returning to a normal life? Feels like maybe never? I am honestly having a difficult time going back to what was. Working. Socializing. Interacting with strangers. Believing people in my community will come together during a crisis. I think the issue with the marginalized/high risk people is so strong right now because all it would take is for people to just wear a mask in specific situations and we can't even do that. And if we can't just wear a mask in a supermarket or a pharmacy, I should believe we're going to do something about climate change? Voting? Abortion? I cannot re-state enough the widespread apathy really has me shook.

I joined a school board of education in 2021; I was specifically asked to do so and did it enthusiastically. The president has recently come out as anti-mask and I sense general apathy from my fellow board members. So I sit powerless to do anything because no one wants to "rock the boat". I thought it was going to be an empowering experience - somewhere I could make an actual difference. Instead it's only adding to my despair.

If this feels like deja vu, it's because it is--I recall a similar discussion around two years ago. And nothing's changed. That's causing its own mental health issue for me, as I see no objective reason to think that we won't be here having this conversation again two years from now.

I dunno. With every passing day I'm realizing fewer and fewer people want to talk about it or think about it anymore. It's just blended into the background noise of everything else. A pandemic...where ~400 people a day are still dying is just background noise now. I don't believe we'll be talking about it in two years, at least as a domestic issue. Hell, I'll go so far as to say Fall of 2023 it won't even be a news item anymore.

Coffee break!

[Zaxxon]

As we head into another pandemic winter I'm not going to test out my new booster to see how well it functions, so my short answer is that I'm hoping Spring 2023 is better (again). I've made it this far; I can do another 6 months. The list of things I've missed (that my family has missed) is large; 6 more months isn't going to change or make up for any of it as those days are gone.

This is what I'm getting at--there is no chance (zero) that Spring 2023 will be 'better' if by 'better' you mean COVID is down to miniscule levels. Or a least there's zero rational reason to believe that will be the case. Why do you hold that hope? Is there some study result that indicates we should expect this after a winter of virtually no one getting bivalent vaccines and the world letting 'er rip?

As I've been saying, I can't turn off my brain. I can't do things I know are problematic. I guess it would be like an IT security specialist advocating for all kinds of password safety and then setting up a new bank account for themselves and using "1234" as their password. It's a sloppy analogy, but I can't really think of a better way to present it. There's a Twitter account that was created to represent the "voice" of SARS-CoV-2. The last month or so they've been posting pictures of doctors, infectious disease specialists, ICU nurses, disease research academics, etc... at conferences completely unmasked. I don't know how they got to that point and being able to turn off everything they know, but I'm not there and I don't know that I'll ever be.

I don't think you give those folks enough credit (even though I agree it'd be better if they and the rest of society took more precautions). I'd peg the likelihood that those folks are current on vaccines as fairly high, and that a significant percentage of them did mask up on the plane to that conference. I think a better analogy, speaking as an IT sec person, is finding evidence that IT security folks are running around using cloud services with multifactor authentication despite the fact that these services aren't totally secure. They'd be better off from a security perspective if they all used self-hosted open-source products whose code they'd personally vetted, and if they also powered off those self-hosted servers and disconnected them from the internet whenever they're not in use.

But even IT security professionals aren't going to do that, because it's not practical.

My parents (in their 70s) are mostly cautious, but they are back to eating at restaurants and have been for some time. For them (and their peers) I get the sense many have just decided this isn't how they wanted to live out their "golden years" and so they're just doing whatever. I don't understand it (how can I?) but maybe if I was in my 70s I'd have a different view. I also have an extended family member with Lupus (no really, it's Lupus). It was bad enough at one point that they received chemo and have experienced numerous (minor) flare ups over the last decade. Medication and stress management have kept it in check, thankfully. However, they've also decided they've had enough with masking and social distancing. Not really sure what I think about it, but whatever mental gymnastics that have occurred, I'm not sure.

I think these people are all asking forms of the same question I'm asking you: if not now, then when? And why then rather than now? What rational basis is there to believe that things will be significantly less risky in 6 months? Hopium doesn't count.

But it's again talking around the core question I raised--whether I do these things has very little impact on those folks, since society in general has determined to continue the fuck around and find out party. There aren't enough of the Smooves, Zaxxons, LMs, et al to have a strong enough impact to tilt the pandemic one way or the other.

Maybe. What if I told you I've heard from someone where I work that is appreciative that I made sure our work space is safer and inclusive by enforcing (and now apparently mandating) masks? I'm not crazy enough to believe I'm in any way impacting society at large, but our individual actions can ripple out in ways we don't realize. And for the relatively brief interactions I'm having in this situation, I'm doing what I can to make the space safer for everyone; it's something.

I'd tell you that that's awesome, but it's not a counter to my point--you are taking a relatively small section of the world (your work space) and implementing a concrete action that requires everyone in that space to take part and measurably reduces their COVID risk for a location in which they will repeatedly spend many hours. That's awesome (really, it is--I wish my kids' school would have that courage), but it's not equivalent to Zaxxon going out and improving the safety of 20,000 NHL fans by being one of ten people in the stadium wearing a mask. Your action helps measurably. Mine doesn't (its utility even for me is questionable, in a one-way masking situation with that many unmasked folks for several hours).

So we're again back to 'it's not going away, and we may or may not ever have a solid answer on the causes/prevalence of long COVID,' much less a silver bullet fix. At what point do you return to living life 'normally?' Is there such a point? If not, why was there one before COVID, when the actions of the masses also had a disproportionate impact on the marginalized/high risk folks? It's not like this is a new phenomenon.

Returning to a normal life? Feels like maybe never?

Thanks for getting this on record!

I am honestly having a difficult time going back to what was. Working. Socializing. Interacting with strangers. Believing people in my community will come together during a crisis. I think the issue with the marginalized/high risk people is so strong right now because all it would take is for people to just wear a mask in specific situations and we can't even do that. And if we can't just wear a mask in a supermarket or a pharmacy, I should believe we're going to do something about climate change? Voting? Abortion? I cannot re-state enough the widespread apathy really has me shook.

Right on (in that you should definitely not believe we're going to do something about those issues, at least not where it requires collective effort from those less at risk to help those more at risk). I think perhaps the disconnect between our views on this is that I came to this conclusion from being a climate action activist for 5+ years prior to COVID, and paying close attention to politics in the 2015-Trump eras. It was quite clear to me that collective action to help the marginalized was never something 21st-century America was going to do well with. COVID was just another example, rather than an eye-opening experience.

I joined a school board of education in 2021; I was specifically asked to do so and did it enthusiastically. The president has recently come out as anti-mask and I sense general apathy from my fellow board members. So I sit powerless to do anything because no one wants to "rock the boat". I thought it was going to be an empowering experience - somewhere I could make an actual difference. Instead it's only adding to my despair.

Condolences, truly. After watching closely our local school board meetings for a year or so earlier in the pandemic, you could not possibly pay me enough to go through that. What a demoralizing 'job,' (in quotes because it typically doesn't even pay).

If this feels like deja vu, it's because it is--I recall a similar discussion around two years ago. And nothing's changed. That's causing its own mental health issue for me, as I see no objective reason to think that we won't be here having this conversation again two years from now.

I dunno. With every passing day I'm realizing fewer and fewer people want to talk about it or think about it anymore. It's just blended into the background noise of everything else. A pandemic...where ~400 people a day are still dying is just background noise now. I don't believe we'll be talking about it in two years, at least as a domestic issue. Hell, I'll go so far as to say Fall of 2023 it won't even be a news item anymore.

True, but I meant us here, the ones who care enough to try to do the right thing. We'll definitely still be talking about it in two years, but I don't see the equation changing significantly between what would be ideal and what society actually does changing all that much.

[Smoove_B]

This is what I'm getting at--there is no chance (zero) that Spring 2023 will be 'better' if by 'better' you mean COVID is down to miniscule levels. Or a least there's zero rational reason to believe that will be the case. Why do you hold that hope? Is there some study result that indicates we should expect this after a winter of virtually no one getting bivalent vaccines and the world letting 'er rip?

That's the thing - no one knows what's going to happen. Lots of guesses - some better than others - but no one knows. Maybe the hybrid immunity folks have it right and this winter will be a blip because COVID-19 has already washed over us so many times it doesn't matter anymore. Or maybe the new variant that is currently on deck is actually going to do a number on us and cause enough death and illness to be disruptive. What happens and how that has the Spring of 2023 looking is unclear. I'm under no illusion that it'll be gone or managed. I'm not "hopeful' things will be better. Instead, I'm saying that the risks for illness over the fall and winter are too high for me to suddenly decide that now is the time to say fuck it, I'm done. I will instead re-evaluate in the Spring of 2023 how things look and figure out what makes sense based on whatever is going to unfold over the next 6 months.

I don't think you give those folks enough credit (even though I agree it'd be better if they and the rest of society took more precautions). I'd peg the likelihood that those folks are current on vaccines as fairly high, and that a significant percentage of them did mask up on the plane to that conference. I think a better analogy, speaking as an IT sec person, is finding evidence that IT security folks are running around using cloud services with multifactor authentication despite the fact that these services aren't totally secure. They'd be better off from a security perspective if they all used self-hosted open-source products whose code they'd personally vetted, and if they also powered off those self-hosted servers and disconnected them from the internet whenever they're not in use.

But even IT security professionals aren't going to do that, because it's not practical.

Maybe, but it's my opinion it's still irresponsible. Unless they're doing rapid PCR testing at the door, they're actively encouraging spread.

I guess in this situation I'd be the IT sec person that would be doing the most insane preventative thing; apparently it's how I'm wired.

I think these people are all asking forms of the same question I'm asking you: if not now, then when? And why then rather than now? What rational basis is there to believe that things will be significantly less risky in 6 months? Hopium doesn't count.

I think I answered this above. If I'm being forced to run my own personal risk calculations (which apparently is the case for our current situation), then my evaluation suggests doing things indoors and unmasked is too risky right now - as we seemingly head into another surge. The other thing I am constantly thinking of (and that I do not regularly hear others verbalize) is the other people in my household. If I was living alone my decision making might be a bit different. However, right now the things I might choose to do that put me at risk also put the other members in my household at risk. Here I would be assuming my risk acceptance is the same as theirs - unless I'm going to commit to wearing a mask and isolating myself at home until it can be demonstrated whatever it was I just did doesn't have me accidentally exposing them. I would be gutted if I went somewhere and then came home and gave my wife or daughter COVID-19, especially if it results in a serious case. I guess I don't feel my needs to [Do X] are greater than their desire to not get COVID-19. I don't expect everyone to run that calculation by any means, but I'm also a little surprised to not hear it much - unless it was from parents with young children, children that weren't vaccinated. But since that has been addressed for everyone except for newborns through 5 months, I don't hear that much anymore.

True, but I meant us here, the ones who care enough to try to do the right thing. We'll definitely still be talking about it in two years, but I don't see the equation changing significantly between what would be ideal and what society actually does changing all that much.

I dunno. I'm feeling more and more like a Geralt or a Roland - part of a world that was but has now moved on. I don't mean for it to sound so dramatic, but it's the best I can approximate. At one point saying I was part of public health was something people were interested in hearing more about. Now it feels like...there's some disdain. Oh...you're one of them. Maybe I'm making that up in my head, but it just feels different now.

[Max Peck]

There are still a couple of potential game changers in the vaccine development pipeline. Nasal spray vaccines could get us back to the point where vaccination is more effective at preventing infection as well as preventing serious disease, and pan-coronavirus vaccines could blunt the impact of constantly evolutioning variants.

[Smoove_B]

The bigger issue is attitudes on vaccination; we're backsliding. Worse is vaccine mandates are being challenged - for children in schools and for workplaces.

It feels like we could come up with a new vaccine that stops and/or dramatically reduces spread and people would not get it out of spite. "You can't tell me I can't spread disease - I have freedom over my body to do it if I want!"

[Isgrimnur]

The bigger issue is attitudes on vaccination; we're backsliding. Worse is vaccine mandates are being challenged - for children in schools and for workplaces.

It feels like we could come up with a new vaccine that stops and/or dramatically reduces spread and people would not get it out of spite. "You can't tell me I can't spread disease - I have freedom over my body to do it if I want!"

Typhoid Mary says hello.

[Max Peck]

The bigger issue is attitudes on vaccination; we're backsliding. Worse is vaccine mandates are being challenged - for children in schools and for workplaces.

It feels like we could come up with a new vaccine that stops and/or dramatically reduces spread and people would not get it out of spite. "You can't tell me I can't spread disease - I have freedom over my body to do it if I want!"

Yeah, I was thinking more in terms what is potentially coming that would make things better at an individual level, in the context of "If not now, when?"

[ImLawBoy]

It should be no surprise that my family falls on the extremely conservative side of the COVID issue (from a prevention standpoint, not a political one). We're current on vaccines. We mask when indoors outside of the home. When non-immediate family members are in our home, we mask and require that they wear masks. When I do go into the office, I drive instead of taking public transportation because no one masks on public transportation anymore. Thus far it's been pretty effective - the twins did have bouts of COVID last year, but no one else seems to have had it. We have good reason for it. My oldest is very susceptible to respiratory diseases and has been in the hospital on a ventilator when a cold has gotten out of control. I don't consider myself immunocompromised after my recent bout with cancer (I didn't have to do chemo, thankfully), but better safe than sorry.

I don't expect the rest of the world to be like us. I recognize that the restrictions and isolation can take a toll on people, and I worry about the effects of this on the kids. I don't know how long we'll stay this vigilant - I almost wonder if we'll let our guard down when everyone has had it at least once.

All that said, we're not quite as strict as we once were. I've attended social functions for work and with friends (I'm typically the only one masking, but I'm OK with that). We've done a few trips to museums. While we had only been eating at restaurants when outdoor seating was available, last week I had promised the twins that we could eat at the burger and chicken joint across the street from where they take their music lessons. It was cold and windy, though, and there was hardly anyone inside (relatively early dinner I guess), so we sat indoors and away from everyone else. It was nice.

My big concern is in December. I just got my plane tickets to go my work's legal conference in Dallas. I'll be wearing a mask, but I suspect I will be in the very small minority both during transit and when I'm at the conference. I could have opted out, but I don't think that's wise for my career. Besides, I'm also looking forward to seeing folks I haven't seen in a long time.

So maybe December will be my time. Maybe I'll get lucky and continue to avoid it for a while longer. I want so bad to go back to normal that I totally understand where people are coming from when they have COVID fatigue and just want to act like things were in the Before Times. I can't let it go just yet, though, particularly given my son's health. I don't know when (if) I'll be able to let it go in the future.

[Zaxxon]

The bigger issue is attitudes on vaccination; we're backsliding. Worse is vaccine mandates are being challenged - for children in schools and for workplaces.

It feels like we could come up with a new vaccine that stops and/or dramatically reduces spread and people would not get it out of spite. "You can't tell me I can't spread disease - I have freedom over my body to do it if I want!"

Yeah, I was thinking more in terms what is potentially coming that would make things better at an individual level, in the context of "If not now, when?"

Absolutely. Nasal vaccines are the one thing I still hold out hope for as an actual step-change in this pandemic.

But they're definitely not coming by spring. The initial trial results I saw basically ended in 'back to the drawing board.'

[Smoove_B]

But they're definitely not coming by spring. The initial trial results I saw basically ended in 'back to the drawing board.'

...and do you know what part of the problem is? [puts on invisible R&P hat] - politics. We can't have public and political support for a "Warp Speed 2.0" when the government is currently saying its NBD and to carry on, everything is fine. Private companies sure as hell aren't going to foot the bill for R&D when demand has cratered.

We're in a self-fulfilling loop here.

[Fireball]

I'm getting the bivalent booster today. I really hope we can get to a point where nasal spray vaccines are possible for COVID. Fear of needles is a lot for me to muster myself to get past more than once a year.

[Zaxxon]

We're in a self-fulfilling loop here.

[Sudy]

I thought for sure I had the 'vid after moving progressively into aches and chills and mild chest congestion/cough the last couple days... but I feel better this morning after getting good sleep, and I passed a self-administered antigen test. I went to a concert last Saturday... the first time I've been to an event or taken the subway since before the pandemic. I'd say 20% were masking on transit and 5% were masking at the concert (though it was a tiny venue only about half full). Admittedly I only masked for a bit of the trip as I just get too hot otherwise. I was so strict and obsessive until several month ago, and I still rarely go anywhere beyond picking up food or groceries. Mask fatigue eventually got to me too, but I'm starting to be more cautious again. Can't get a bivalent shot yet as I received my fourth dose of the old vaccine less than three months ago. At least my mother and sister finally agreed to get vaccinated... I visit my folks for a week about once a month and my mom has lung issues.

Ontario Health recommends waiting six months after your previous vaccination to get bivalent... they say evidence "suggests longer intervals between doses result in a stronger immune response and higher vaccine effectiveness that is expected to last longer", but they permit it after three months if you're high risk or with informed consent. I'm wondering if I should try to get it earlier both because I'm obese, and to try to better protect my mom when I go to visit her.

[ImLawBoy]

I posted this a few pages back:

This is a bit of an REO Speedwagon situation (Heard it from a friend who, heard it from a friend who . . . .), but I was at a work event last night (yes, I was Bill Hader as the only one wearing a mask) and one of my colleagues has a sister who is an epidemiologist who works on the vaccines. She said that she'd get the updated boosters as soon as possible without considering whether to wait 2 or 4 or 6 months. (Don't know if this applies post-infection, however.)

[hitbyambulance]

If I'm being forced to run my own personal risk calculations (which apparently is the case for our current situation), then my evaluation suggests doing things indoors and unmasked is too risky right now

go out and socialize with one of these (with P100 filters)
https://fastoolnow.com/3m-half-face-reu ... phragm-lg/
the risk of infection wearing one of these (if worn correctly) has to be close-enough-to infinitesimal.

if you're really worried of being infected through the eyes, wear goggles or get one of these
https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/p/d/v000057685/

[Sudy]

If I'm being forced to run my own personal risk calculations (which apparently is the case for our current situation), then my evaluation suggests doing things indoors and unmasked is too risky right now

go out and socialize with one of these (with P100 filters)
https://fastoolnow.com/3m-half-face-reu ... phragm-lg/
the risk of infection wearing one of these (if worn correctly) has to be close-enough-to infinitesimal.

if you're really worried of being infected through the eyes, wear goggles or get one of these

How often do the P100 filters last? A web search suggests changing them "maximum every six months".

Do you happen to have a beard? I'm wondering how ineffective these are rendered by a compromised fit. (100%?)

[hitbyambulance]

How often do the P100 filters last? A web search suggests "maximum every six months".

Do you happen to have a beard? I'm wondering how ineffective these are rendered by a compromised fit. (100%?)

i haven't yet gone through my first set of filters - you can use them until you 'can't breathe through them anymore'. i only break out this half-face elastomer respirator in high-risk situations - but it's an absolute game-changer for attending concerts!

note if you opt for cartridge filters, you _need_ to keep them wrapped up in an airless bag when not in use. the cheaper disk filters won't degrade when just exposed to the environment.

i have a short beard but i'm actually going to shave it all off. this mask will press on your facial hairs and it can get extremely annoying after an hour or so.

technically, you're supposed to filter the exhalation vent with a surgical mask - but if no one around me is wearing facial coverings, i will say my empathy meter remains quite low and my feeling becomes 'i'm out for myself, at this point'. sorry/not sorry

[Smoove_B]

I do possess a few different P100 masks; I can't imagine going out to socialize in one (like a bar or at a concert).

How often do the P100 filters last? A web search suggests changing them "maximum every six months".

"It depends" is going to be the general answer - based on environmental conditions and use (a few hours at a time? 8 hours a day?)

Do you happen to have a beard? I'm wondering how ineffective these are rendered by a compromised fit. (100%?)

Significantly diminished - same for any mask, even if you have stubble. Anything that breaks the seal around your nose and mouth compromises fit. Better than nothing? Probably. How much better? Unknown.

[hitbyambulance]

I can't imagine going out to socialize in one (like a bar or at a concert).

and this is my point - we have the means to get to 75% normality with 99.99%+ (when properly worn) of not getting infected in social gatherings. to this day, i have not yet been infected with C19 (or any respiratory illness since 2019). one just needs to get over one's self-consciousness of wearing one of these in public. in my personal calculus, this is far superior to wasting away in isolation at home, and i think at least a few others here would agree.

[Smoove_B]

I'm not self conscious; I genuinely don't give a flying f about what others think (hello middle age!) about me anymore. Instead, it's matter of not wanting to hang out in a P100 mask. If I'm at a bar or ball game, I want to drink a beer and have shitty food - not possible wearing a mask. When I need to, I'll put on a mask to go into a store. If was traveling on mass transit? Consider me bubble-boy. I have not been in a restaurant or bar since February of 2020; I don't see that changing anytime soon. *To be fair* I was not really hanging out in bars and restaurants prior to February of 2020 all that much to begin with, but it went from once or twice a month to zero and hasn't changed.

EDIT: I think the last 2.5+ years have revealed I'm apparently content being "asocial" (introverted?) or whatever the label is. A year ago RM9 (and Trent) commented they would bet their mortgage on me winning some type of TV show contest where they dump you off in the woods to see how long you can live in isolation. Apparently for me, the answer is exceedingly long.

[coopasonic]

Apparently for me, the answer is exceedingly long.

I would be right there with you... well, 10 feet away? The issue on my end is I don't have the will to override my wife's choices, or even try which means I may as well go out since every single other person in my house is bringing everything they are exposed to home with them. She's on her way to a 3 day indoor event with a couple hundred people in St. Louis right now. You don't need to even guess how many masks appear at these events.

It's why i have given up and am even considering a board gaming convention next month. I am in the office 3 days a week with about 2% masked. F it. The vulnerable people in my life aren't getting it from me. They have gotten it from church and church adjacent gatherings... repeatedly.

[Zarathud]

Going to a Vegas wedding by plane on Saturday. I’ll be wearing a N95 mask on the plane. The groom’s mom is a public health nurse (and finally retired), so there will be instructions about the desired level of masking that we’ll follow. But the wedding will be intentionally small, even if its venue in Vegas offsets that choice.