Octopus Overlords

Career stats (thus far):

Passing Yardage Rank: 5th
Passing Touchdowns Rank: 6th
Number of Completions: 5th
Number of Wins: 8th
Game Winning Drives: 12th

But there's:

Win/Loss record: 138/112
Super Bowl Wins: 0
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

So is he elite, or is it just longevity?

Passing Yardage - higher than Dan Marino
Passing Touchdowns - tied with Dan Marino
Number of Completions - higher than Dan Marino
Number of Wins - just behind Dan Marino (-14)
Game Winning Drives - behind Dan Marino (-12), tied with Warren Moon (HOF) and Carson Palmer

Dan Marino - 1 SB appearance, 0 wins.

Dan Marino is in the HOF.

I don't watch football, but in general, winning championships is always partially a coin toss and rarely up to one player. W-L and rings should rarely be a major factor in HoF eligibility IMO, especially in the case of MLB pitchers, but I suspect QBs as well, despite how intrinsic they are to their teams. Do they decide the operating budget? Do they sign FAs and draft amateurs? (Other than that one guy under weird circumstances in 1922.) Barry Sanders never got a ring either.

On one hand, everything in sports is made-up and arbitrary. But each one has certain hard stats that are the gauge of a player's individual ability and contributions, and they can be trusted. If you want to use intangibles and unquantifiables as major eligibility criteria it will always be a joke. But, that's exactly why the MLB HoF and the BBWAA is a joke, and why everyone hated moneyball... because deciding who was worthy was no longer the sole domain of what bigoted, shrivelled old white men felt rumble in their cojones.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 3:22 am Passing Yardage - higher than Dan Marino
Passing Touchdowns - tied with Dan Marino
Number of Completions - higher than Dan Marino
Number of Wins - just behind Dan Marino (-14)
Game Winning Drives - behind Dan Marino (-12), tied with Warren Moon (HOF) and Carson Palmer

Dan Marino - 1 SB appearance, 0 wins.

Dan Marino is in the HOF.

Now do their z-scores vs contemporaries.

Has he been retired for 5 years? If not, then no.

To be eligible for the nominating process, a player or coach must have been retired for at least five years. Any other contributor such as a team owner or executive can be voted in at any time.

Wikipedia

Yes. Because why not?

He's put up the numbers. Whether it was because of longevity or not, isn't longevity a positive quality?

Dan Fouts, Jim Kelly and Warren Moon made it in with no SB wins, and Joe Namath is in with 1 SB win plus a lackluster career. Signs point to yes.

Philip Rivers is the exact opposite of Eli Manning. Rivers was always a feared QB, but he never won a Super Bowl. Manning, whom I've never thought of as a top-tier QB, is a two time Super Bowl MVP. That is a crazy accomplishment.

However, I feel being the QB defenses hate going against is a lot more important.

I think Rivers belongs in the HoF.

Jaymann wrote:Dan Fouts, Jim Kelly and Warren Moon made it in with no SB wins, and Joe Namath is in with 1 SB win plus a lackluster career. Signs point to yes.

I never understood Namath's inclusion.

The Meal wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:49 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 3:22 am Passing Yardage - higher than Dan Marino
Passing Touchdowns - tied with Dan Marino
Number of Completions - higher than Dan Marino
Number of Wins - just behind Dan Marino (-14)
Game Winning Drives - behind Dan Marino (-12), tied with Warren Moon (HOF) and Carson Palmer

Dan Marino - 1 SB appearance, 0 wins.

Dan Marino is in the HOF.

Now do their z-scores vs contemporaries.

This isn't z-scores per se, but Pro Football Reference has Rivers 11th all time, tied with Marino, in weighted approximate value. Marino looks to be 1st amongst his contemporaries at QB; Rivers is currently 3rd (but there's no way to break down Brees and Brady's numbers for just the years they played at the same time as Rivers).

Even though I was reluctant, yes he should be in the HoF and no his not winning a SB should be counted against him. NBA and MLB have HoF'ers without championships, NFL can do the same.

I am hardly unbiased since I am a NC State alum and unconditionally love Rivers. All I will say is holding never reaching the super bowl against him is a bit unfair since he was stuck in one of the worst football organizations in the NFL - the Chargers. The best thing about Rivers joining the Colts is it brought forward my ability to never have to root for the wretched Chargers ever again.

He's cut his INT's literally in half since he left the Chargers. I like him because he talks a lot of trash and takes as much as he gives.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:48 am

The Meal wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:49 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 3:22 am Passing Yardage - higher than Dan Marino
Passing Touchdowns - tied with Dan Marino
Number of Completions - higher than Dan Marino
Number of Wins - just behind Dan Marino (-14)
Game Winning Drives - behind Dan Marino (-12), tied with Warren Moon (HOF) and Carson Palmer

Dan Marino - 1 SB appearance, 0 wins.

Dan Marino is in the HOF.

Now do their z-scores vs contemporaries.

This isn't z-scores per se, but Pro Football Reference has Rivers 11th all time, tied with Marino, in weighted approximate value. Marino looks to be 1st amongst his contemporaries at QB; Rivers is currently 3rd (but there's no way to break down Brees and Brady's numbers for just the years they played at the same time as Rivers).

That gets at the question I was thinking of, though. It could be my familiarity with the NFC (in general) and especially the NFC North, but I’d have expected Rodgers to well outpace Rivers. I would not be able to fairly place him between two other QB peers.

Of course, that may be opening up the discussion to include the position of being a Quarterback versus ones ability to throw a football (as a fan of the Detroit squad, I’m also familiar with that distinction).

Wheres the never heard of him option? Been out of sports interest for far too long it seems.

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:18 pm He's cut his INT's literally in half since he left the Chargers. I like him because he talks a lot of trash and takes as much as he gives.

I think he also talks the "cleanest" trash in the NFL ever. haha

He has nine kids. Nine.

The Meal wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:50 pm That gets at the question I was thinking of, though. It could be my familiarity with the NFC (in general) and especially the NFC North, but I’d have expected Rodgers to well outpace Rivers. I would not be able to fairly place him between two other QB peers.

Rodgers is awesome. He won't go down as the greatest ever due to not winning enough super bowls and having the misfortune of following Brett Favre. But, I tink Aaron Rodgers is *much* better than Favre was and think he's one of the best QBs I have ever seen in terms of pure ability. He can run very effectively and his passing ability is superb. There's no question he is a better QB than Rivers.

I still think Rivers is the 6th best QB of his generation and that shouldn't get you into the hall.

Brady
Peyton Manning
Brees
Rodgers
Rothlesberger
Rivers

noxiousdog wrote:I still think Rivers is the 6th best QB of his generation and that shouldn't get you into the hall.

Brady
Peyton Manning
Brees
Rodgers
Rothlesberger
Rivers

Damn, that's actually a good argument.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:23 pm I still think Rivers is the 6th best QB of his generation and that shouldn't get you into the hall.

Brady
Peyton Manning
Brees
Rodgers
Rothlesberger
Rivers

I think there's a difference between getting in on the first ballot and getting in altogether. No, he's not a first ballot HoF'er I agree with that. But he'll get in eventually.

McNutt wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:38 am Philip Rivers is the exact opposite of Eli Manning. Rivers was always a feared QB, but he never won a Super Bowl. Manning, whom I've never thought of as a top-tier QB, is a two time Super Bowl MVP. That is a crazy accomplishment.

However, I feel being the QB defenses hate going against is a lot more important.

I think Rivers belongs in the HoF.

I don't think it's a crazy accomplishment. That's because I think there are at least two ways to elite status. One is stats. I wouldn't argue against Peyton Manning being called elite because he put up the regular season stats to achieve that status, even though he was a failure in the big game. The other way is to deliver in the big game. I don't mean you just show up and play, I mean you make memorable big plays that people watch in highlight reels for years. Eli Manning was that kind of quarterback. Both SB victories were against the Patriots, which only makes his performances in those games more impressive.

So, that being the case, I think Rivers should get in under the Peyton Manning rule- stats matter enough to get you a place in the HoF.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:23 pm I still think Rivers is the 6th best QB of his generation and that shouldn't get you into the hall.

Brady
Peyton Manning
Brees
Rodgers
Rothlesberger
Rivers

Eli Manning will likely make the HoF. If he does, Rivers absolutely should.

Shoot, Rivers should even without Eli having a good chance. Rivers' weighted approximate value is significantly higher than Big Ben.

gameoverman wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:00 pm

McNutt wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:38 am Philip Rivers is the exact opposite of Eli Manning. Rivers was always a feared QB, but he never won a Super Bowl. Manning, whom I've never thought of as a top-tier QB, is a two time Super Bowl MVP. That is a crazy accomplishment.

However, I feel being the QB defenses hate going against is a lot more important.

I think Rivers belongs in the HoF.

I don't think it's a crazy accomplishment. That's because I think there are at least two ways to elite status. One is stats. I wouldn't argue against Peyton Manning being called elite because he put up the regular season stats to achieve that status, even though he was a failure in the big game. The other way is to deliver in the big game. I don't mean you just show up and play, I mean you make memorable big plays that people watch in highlight reels for years. Eli Manning was that kind of quarterback. Both SB victories were against the Patriots, which only makes his performances in those games more impressive.

So, that being the case, I think Rivers should get in under the Peyton Manning rule- stats matter enough to get you a place in the HoF.

Peyton Manning won two Super Bowls. You can't say Rivers gets in under a "Peyton Manning rule" because of that.

Manning also consistently had better stats than Rivers. I think Rivers gets in eventually, mainly due to his longevity, but as mentioned, he was never the top 5 of QBs in his generation. And the argument that he should get a pass because the Chargers were never good isn’t really accurate. They had some top flight teams in the mid 2000s and still never made the SB.

Yeah, he played with a HoF running back and tight end for a lot of his run, so not it’s not like he didn’t have weapons. Also, how many hall of famers replaced another player only to have the fan base wish they still had the old guy for their entire tenure?

Y'all must not have watched the Chargers . They never had a great defense and that was generally their downfall.

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:13 pm Manning also consistently had better stats than Rivers. I think Rivers gets in eventually, mainly due to his longevity, but as mentioned, he was never the top 5 of QBs in his generation. And the argument that he should get a pass because the Chargers were never good isn’t really accurate. They had some top flight teams in the mid 2000s and still never made the SB.

Those "top flight" teams only had Rivers starting for 1-2 years. After that they got rid of Marty and hired Norv Turner who was a great OC but a consistent failure as head coach. The decline began almost immediately. Again, Rivers had an INCOMPETENT organization and had mostly pro bowl caliber seasons. I certainly agree he isn't a "lock" HOFer, but I hope he gets in.

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:21 pm Y'all must not have watched the Chargers . They never had a great defense and that was generally their downfall.

Barry Sanders

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:31 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:21 pm Y'all must not have watched the Chargers . They never had a great defense and that was generally their downfall.

Barry Sanders

Warren Moon

I'm in the Rivers is a bubble guy camp. Of the top 5 QBs of his generation, 4 are some of the best of all time. In no particular order:

• Brady
  Brees
  Manning
  Rodgers

Big Ben is #5 - Couple Super Bowl rings to his name, big stats and a reputation of being one tough hombre to bring down, plus post-Bettis, he really hasn't had an RB that struck fear into the defenses, yet never had a losing season. QBs wrongly get overly credited with the W-L record, but the fact remains they do get the credit. Figure in that he was on a run-first team for several seasons at the start of his career and he's in Canton.

Rivers slots in at the top of the next group - again in no particular order.

• Manning (Eli version)
  Matt Ryan
  Matt Stafford
  Joe Flacco
  Carson Palmer

How many of these guys are HOF, despite most still playing and being top 20 all time passing leaders? Rivers is the best of this bunch in my opinion. He'll get in, but he's a bit of a victim of when he played. He could be the last - I'm not sure about Eli.

Lorini wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:39 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:31 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:21 pm Y'all must not have watched the Chargers . They never had a great defense and that was generally their downfall.

Barry Sanders

Warren Moon

I am a fan of Moon for many reasons. I often wonder what his career would have looked like if he played in the NFL the whole time. I bet he'd be in the conversation as one of the greatest five QBs to ever live.

Aliasbuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:51 am Rivers slots in at the top of the next group - again in no particular order.

• Manning (Eli version)
  Matt Ryan
  Matt Stafford
  Joe Flacco
  Carson Palmer

How many of these guys are HOF, despite most still playing and being top 20 all time passing leaders? Rivers is the best of this bunch in my opinion. He'll get in, but he's a bit of a victim of when he played. He could be the last - I'm not sure about Eli.

Of that list, I think just Eli gets in and that's almost entirely due to his 2 SB rings. Otherwise, his stats are decidedly mediocre and certainly worse than Rivers'. Matt Ryan may have a case stats-wise, but I think the Falcons blowing the SB against the Pats will work against him. I would be surprised if Stafford, Palmer, or Flacco (despite the ring) makes it.

Objectively, Big Ben has meant less to his teams than Rivers. The gap between Rivers and Roethlisberger in terms of weighted approximate value is the same as the gap between Drew Brees and Rivers. If Ben didn't have his Super Bowl rings, you couldn't make the case he's had a better career than Rivers.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:23 am Objectively, Big Ben has meant less to his teams than Rivers. The gap between Rivers and Roethlisberger in terms of weighted approximate value is the same as the gap between Drew Brees and Rivers. If Ben didn't have his Super Bowl rings, you couldn't make the case he's had a better career than Rivers.

They are pretty comparable. 420 TDs to to 396 (edge Rivers). 63K yards to 60k (edge Rivers). 7.6 ypa to 7.7 (edge Rothlesberger).

I think the Super Bowl rings for Rothlesberger put him over easily.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:33 am

pr0ner wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:23 am Objectively, Big Ben has meant less to his teams than Rivers. The gap between Rivers and Roethlisberger in terms of weighted approximate value is the same as the gap between Drew Brees and Rivers. If Ben didn't have his Super Bowl rings, you couldn't make the case he's had a better career than Rivers.

They are pretty comparable. 420 TDs to to 396 (edge Rivers). 63K yards to 60k (edge Rivers). 7.6 ypa to 7.7 (edge Rothlesberger).

I think the Super Bowl rings for Rothlesberger put him over easily.

Given the advanced stats difference, the rings are the only thing rating Roethlisberger over Rivers.

I don't hold the lack of championship appearances against him. But like any discussion when it comes to the HOF, I don't really care about statistics either (without context). The first question I would ask is whether or not Philip Rivers was ever considered one of the very best at his position against his contemporaries. I think the answer to that is no. And that is not so much his fault, playing during the era of Peyton, Brady, Brees and then Rodgers.

Those four QBs are elite, first-ballot Hall of Fame QBs. Philip Rivers is no where near that level of QB. I don't see how anyone could argue that he is.

If the HOF is just a pure numbers game, than maybe? But at the same time, if that's true, than being in the HOF has become meaningless anyway.

My son is obsessed about Big Ben making it to the HOF, and I think that he will given the post-season success. But I feel about Big Ben the same way that I felt about Boomer Esiason. A *really* good QB, but just not good enough when compared to the elite players he played alongside during his career.

Without struggling, I can name seven QBs that were better than Ben during his career (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck). And there might be more. And I think Ben is better than Rivers. So what does that mean for Rivers?

For the Hall of Fame to have any meaning, it can't just let the very good in, it has to be devoted to the elite players at their positions. I don't think Rivers qualifies.

But Kurt Warner got in, so I'm guessing Rivers will too.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:28 pmPeyton Manning won two Super Bowls. You can't say Rivers gets in under a "Peyton Manning rule" because of that.

You're leaving out what I think is an important fact. Look at Peyton Manning's stats in his SB appearances. They are bad to mediocre. His SB MVP game vs Chicago was one where his stats were 247 yards passing 1 TD 1 INT. That was his best Super Bowl performance. They had to settle for three field goals in that game, and seven of their points came from the defense. If his career average was anywhere close to 247 1td 1int per game would anyone be calling him elite? There's no need to mention his other SB appearances because they were worse to horrible. And that doesn't even include some of the playoff games where his skills were basically nonexistent. The truth is the Peyton Manning who tore it up during the regular season was not the Peyton Manning who showed up for the playoffs and SB.

The Seattle SB is one where if he was capable of delivering in the big game, that's the one where we would have seen that. People might say the Seattle defense was just too good, one of the all time best. Okay but consider this: Eli Manning delivered in a SB against an undefeated Patriots team that was lead by Tom frickin' Brady who happened to have Randy Moss as a receiver!

So really the only thing Peyton Manning has over Rivers is one mediocre SB performance vs no SB appearances for Rivers. He has better stats than Rivers, but that's not important since no QB requires better stats than Manning to get in the HoF. They just require a good enough amount to make it and I believe Rivers has that.

So the fact that Manning has TWO Super Bowl titles means nothing. Got it.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:23 pm I still think Rivers is the 6th best QB of his generation and that shouldn't get you into the hall.

Brady
Peyton Manning
Brees
Rodgers
Rothlesberger
Rivers

So only 5 QB's from each generation should get into the HoF? Same with other position players?

Sounds like he is still better than most QBs. Rivers has played on some pretty crappy teams. I think his GM's have failed him more than he has failed the team. A QB is kinda like a starting pitcher who plays for a bad team but still has great stats, he is worthy.