The Politics of Covid 19, mask wearing and the vaccination process

[Holman]

You don't have any law against spreading misinformation that can endanger life?

Not really. The 1st amendment guarantee of free speech is pretty expansive.

So if someone spread information about eating cyanide can cure COVID-19?

Or injecting bleach.

Or taking horse paste. A lot of people both inside and outside the US don't realize how radical our constitutional rights actually are.

It's just that, in the past, there has never been a major political/social movement dedicated to producing a counter-narrative against *practical* "elite" thinking (in this case, medical science).

[malchior]

Beyond the mask mandate stuff the whole blog post has me just staring at the ceiling. At what point does Biden start taking a realistic stock of the situation?

[Zaxxon]

[LawBeefaroni]

At what point does Biden start taking a realistic stock of the situation?

When the pressure to make a decision is gone. Leading by que sera sera.

[noxiousdog]

Yeah, it's pretty obviously CTU behind it. I found the numbers they're citing interesting, but I have no way to confirm or refute their validity. The 50% attendance statement seems a little suspicious to me based on attendance in my kids' classes (which was much higher than 50%), but maybe 2nd graders are especially strong against the virus?

Anyway, staying home is workable for us - my wife and I are both at home and we've got the resources to handle remote learning. I feel bad for those who are not so fortunate, however, and I fault both CPS and CTU for letting it get to this point (and I really have no interest in determining who is more to blame).

There's been a lot of those numbers floating around, and they aren't believable if we're restricting it to illness. Allegedly 25% of students didn't return to Houston Independent School District Classes, and there was the 21% of NYPD employees were out.

But consider... the worst covid rate in the US is currently Rhode Island, and it is by a large margin. They are currently at a 7 day rate of 413 per 100,000. Even if you double it for a two week infection, that's less than 1%.

The absence numbers cannot be explained by COVID illness.

[LawBeefaroni]

Yeah, it's pretty obviously CTU behind it. I found the numbers they're citing interesting, but I have no way to confirm or refute their validity. The 50% attendance statement seems a little suspicious to me based on attendance in my kids' classes (which was much higher than 50%), but maybe 2nd graders are especially strong against the virus?

Anyway, staying home is workable for us - my wife and I are both at home and we've got the resources to handle remote learning. I feel bad for those who are not so fortunate, however, and I fault both CPS and CTU for letting it get to this point (and I really have no interest in determining who is more to blame).

There's been a lot of those numbers floating around, and they aren't believable if we're restricting it to illness. Allegedly 25% of students didn't return to Houston Independent School District Classes, and there was the 21% of NYPD employees were out.

But consider... the worst covid rate in the US is currently Rhode Island, and it is by a large margin. They are currently at a 7 day rate of 413 per 100,000. Even if you double it for a two week infection, that's less than 1%.

The absence numbers cannot be explained by COVID illness.

It's not just the case rate. It's also quarantines for exposure/close contacts and pending test results.

The two days my daughter went last week, about 1/3 of her class was out. From those I know, they weren't all COVID positive absences but they were all COVID related. Now add in that kids are home and you have parents who are absent not for having COVID but due to COVID related shutdown of schools.

[Defiant]

But consider... the worst covid rate in the US is currently Rhode Island, and it is by a large margin. They are currently at a 7 day rate of 413 per 100,000. Even if you double it for a two week infection, that's less than 1%.

The absence numbers cannot be explained by COVID illness.

I looked it up. That's daily average, not weekly total.

[malchior]

But consider... the worst covid rate in the US is currently Rhode Island, and it is by a large margin. They are currently at a 7 day rate of 413 per 100,000. Even if you double it for a two week infection, that's less than 1%.

The absence numbers cannot be explained by COVID illness.

I looked it up. That's daily average, not weekly total.

He did say day rate but the bigger problem is that looking at large populations and then assuming every workplace has equivalent rates is probably the wrong approach. Schools / assisted living facilities / hospitals have different rates of infection than other workplaces. Also not every COVID-related absence is a direct illness to the person. They may be using sick time to care for someone else or broader refusal such as refusing to send children into school in an outbreak. I get where the idea comes from but it's not a robust model - more like a pulse check.

[noxiousdog]

But consider... the worst covid rate in the US is currently Rhode Island, and it is by a large margin. They are currently at a 7 day rate of 413 per 100,000. Even if you double it for a two week infection, that's less than 1%.

The absence numbers cannot be explained by COVID illness.

I looked it up. That's daily average, not weekly total.

Ah. You are correct. I thought it was the case too until I read, "This table is sorted by places with the most cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days..." However, there is a column that specifically says "daily avg."

Regardless, it's still not enough to explain it. I find it hard to believe you're getting enough people to quarantine if you can't get them to wear masks.

[Zaxxon]

Also worth keeping in mind that we have no idea of the actual COVID rate right now.

[noxiousdog]

Also worth keeping in mind that we have no idea of the actual COVID rate right now.

Which is also fair, but if it were 25%, this would be done in a week and we'd be waiting for the next wave.

[Daehawk]

The 2 headlines I saw today was that Pfizer says they'll cover omicron in a vaccine by March and that Cyprus says they have found a variant that combines delta and omicron.

[Defiant]

The 2 headlines I saw today was that Pfizer says they'll cover omicron in a vaccine by March and that Cyprus says they have found a variant that combines delta and omicron.

IIUC, this was very, very likely cross contamination by the lab, not an actual new variant.

[Smoove_B]

Also worth keeping in mind that we have no idea of the actual COVID rate right now.

Which is also fair, but if it were 25%, this would be done in a week and we'd be waiting for the next wave.

Can't say it better than Ed Yong

As this piece shows, if you want to really understand what's happening in hospitals right now, you can either look at some dashboard and superficially interpret its lagged, mushy data, or you can actually ask the people on the ground what they're seeing.

[malchior]

Way more people watch this type of nonsense than listen to someone like Ed Yong or consult actual doctors on the ground. In fact, if you go to Fox today they are putting hacks like Marty Makary on to say that Walensky is lying here -- specifically he claimed in a segment I saw that they have the data but won't release it -- and pushing hard on this 'with COVID' storyline.

[noxiousdog]

Can't say it better than Ed Yongple on the ground what they're seeing.

[/quote]

Ed Yong isn't claiming that 25% of the population has COVID.

[Smoove_B]

Ed Yong isn't claiming that 25% of the population has COVID.

No, he's saying stop looking at the lagged-out reporting and listen to the people actually dealing with what's happening. All of this reminds me very much of the 3 Mile Island incident where the technicians were looking at all the dials and monitors and saying everything was fine but the people in the reactor area were saying there was a malfunction with the monitoring equipment and a core meltdown was imminent.

"But dials and meters are saying everything is fine"

Or if you don't like that example, the pilots that end up crashing their planes when their instruments conflict with what their eyes are telling them. It's happening right now with COVID - our ability to accurately quantify what's happening now is disappearing as systems are overwhelmed and broken. And in the case of home tests, unable to count.

[malchior]

I've got an example of the uncertainty - this is from a friend group talking. So we had 5 people sick here. The wife ended up being out of work for about 10 days because she had the time anyway plus the hospital said screw the guidance and told staff not to report sick but in the end we have 1 counted officially.

We all got sick around Christmas. It started with <redacted - wife is nurse at Jersey City Medical Center>, then me, then the kids. It was mostly runny noses for everyone except me, no fever but I was fatigued, had a headache, and had a lot of chest congestion. In-person PCR was impossible to get because of the pre-holiday rush. <Wife> did a home test (negative) and I did an in-person rapid test (negative). We didn't pursue the mail-in PCR because they would be moot with the turn-around time. <Oldest Daughter> got a PCR test on Wednesday and it came back positive. We're all up-to-date on our shots. I can now say I may have had it twice, but I can't be sure.

[noxiousdog]

Ed Yong isn't claiming that 25% of the population has COVID.

No, he's saying stop looking at the lagged-out reporting and listen to the people actually dealing with what's happening. All of this reminds me very much of the 3 Mile Island incident where the technicians were looking at all the dials and monitors and saying everything was fine but the people in the reactor area were saying there was a malfunction with the monitoring equipment and a core meltdown was imminent.

"But dials and meters are saying everything is fine"

Or if you don't like that example, the pilots that end up crashing their planes when their instruments conflict with what their eyes are telling them. It's happening right now with COVID - our ability to accurately quantify what's happening now is disappearing as systems are overwhelmed and broken. And in the case of home tests, unable to count.

Is this just general commentary, or are you addressing the claims of 20-25% absences from school/work? If it's the latter, I'm missing your point.

[Smoove_B]

Is this just general commentary, or are you addressing the claims of 20-25% absences from school/work? If it's the latter, I'm missing your point.

I am *soaking* in commentary this morning (was a memo circulated over the weekend?) that the numbers being reported nationwide are false. That kids/workers being reported absent from school or business are out for reasons other than COVID, but like hospitals that are saying everyone that visits now is COVID positive, all work and school absences are being labeled COVID. There's not really that many people out and if there was they're not out because of COVID. They have the flu. Or a cold. Or are staying home to get paid for not working. It's just the fake media whipping people into a fear-frenzy over a cold.

There's a researcher in Boston that was commenting this morning on social media about absentee and hospitalization rates and a Nate Silver bro was in her comments linking for her (how helpful) real-time data for hospitalizations in the area from a public-facing online database saying everything was fine. Except there were Boston area doctors in the same thread saying the reporting is completely irrelevant - they are in the ER and saying they're overwhelmed. I have data for my own state that isn't for the public and it's bonkers. The public reporting systems catch up eventually but they're still broad-strokes. And I can only imagine what I'm not seeing.

[malchior]

If you were to have the news on all day you'd have heard a lot of kvetching about lazy teachers in Chicago, with/for COVID discussions (heavily on Fox but present even NBC News or ABC), and the big highrise fire in NYC which dominated coverage. Just a mountain of noise and misinformation that doesn't give anyone any sense of what doctors are saying. It feels like wall to wall gaslighting. The idea that a memo circulated feels very real.

[noxiousdog]

Is this just general commentary, or are you addressing the claims of 20-25% absences from school/work? If it's the latter, I'm missing your point.

I am *soaking* in commentary this morning (was a memo circulated over the weekend?) that the numbers being reported nationwide are false. That kids/workers being reported absent from school or business are out for reasons other than COVID, but like hospitals that are saying everyone that visits now is COVID positive, all work and school absences are being labeled COVID. There's not really that many people out and if there was they're not out because of COVID. They have the flu. Or a cold. Or are staying home to get paid for not working. It's just the fake media whipping people into a fear-frenzy over a cold.

There's a researcher in Boston that was commenting this morning on social media about absentee and hospitalization rates and a Nate Silver bro was in her comments linking for her (how helpful) real-time data for hospitalizations in the area from a public-facing online database saying everything was fine. Except there were Boston area doctors in the same thread saying the reporting is completely irrelevant - they are in the ER and saying they're overwhelmed. I have data for my own state that isn't for the public and it's bonkers. The public reporting systems catch up eventually but they're still broad-strokes. And I can only imagine what I'm not seeing.

Ok, but isn't that a catch-22? If 25% numbers are legit, then it's effectively done. Everyone is going to get it and soon if they haven't already. We'd be talking about 25% with symptoms even, so multiply by some number for the asymptomatic cases. I mean, yes, we slightly (10%? 20%?) delay it on the high side, but effectively, everyone that can be infected would be infected. Because clearly, if it's 25% today, surely it's another 15%-20% over the last 6 weeks.

Note: clearly we are at an all time high in both cases and likely hospitalizations. I'm just super skeptical that 25% of metropolitan Americans are sick with COVID and have symptoms so bad they are calling in sick yet aren't getting tested.

[Pyperkub]

Is this just general commentary, or are you addressing the claims of 20-25% absences from school/work? If it's the latter, I'm missing your point.

I am *soaking* in commentary this morning (was a memo circulated over the weekend?) that the numbers being reported nationwide are false. That kids/workers being reported absent from school or business are out for reasons other than COVID, but like hospitals that are saying everyone that visits now is COVID positive, all work and school absences are being labeled COVID. There's not really that many people out and if there was they're not out because of COVID. They have the flu. Or a cold. Or are staying home to get paid for not working. It's just the fake media whipping people into a fear-frenzy over a cold.

There's a researcher in Boston that was commenting this morning on social media about absentee and hospitalization rates and a Nate Silver bro was in her comments linking for her (how helpful) real-time data for hospitalizations in the area from a public-facing online database saying everything was fine. Except there were Boston area doctors in the same thread saying the reporting is completely irrelevant - they are in the ER and saying they're overwhelmed. I have data for my own state that isn't for the public and it's bonkers. The public reporting systems catch up eventually but they're still broad-strokes. And I can only imagine what I'm not seeing.

Ok, but isn't that a catch-22? If 25% numbers are legit, then it's effectively done. Everyone is going to get it and soon if they haven't already. We'd be talking about 25% with symptoms even, so multiply by some number for the asymptomatic cases. I mean, yes, we slightly (10%? 20%?) delay it on the high side, but effectively, everyone that can be infected would be infected. Because clearly, if it's 25% today, surely it's another 15%-20% over the last 6 weeks.

Note: clearly we are at an all time high in both cases and likely hospitalizations. I'm just super skeptical that 25% of metropolitan Americans are sick with COVID and have symptoms so bad they are calling in sick yet aren't getting tested.

Honestly, this really is a data issue, and waiting a couple of weeks while working y/teaching remotely to get better data world be good for schools and businesses.

The other thing to remember is that we know that even people who have had covid are still susceptible to getting it again. While that may not be the case with omicron, we essentially need to prepare for a case in which it is.

[malchior]

I think one problem is people want a level of precision that is impossible, want simple models, and that isn't possible when in reality the interactions are very complex.

[Smoove_B]

Ok, but isn't that a catch-22? If 25% numbers are legit, then it's effectively done. Everyone is going to get it and soon if they haven't already. We'd be talking about 25% with symptoms even, so multiply by some number for the asymptomatic cases. I mean, yes, we slightly (10%? 20%?) delay it on the high side, but effectively, everyone that can be infected would be infected. Because clearly, if it's 25% today, surely it's another 15%-20% over the last 6 weeks.

If you're asking me to give up because "everyone is going to get it", I won't.

COVID-19 could metaphorically have me face down on the mat with my arms pinned behind my back and I'm still going to push for anything and everything possible to stop spread. As cheesy as it sounds, that's what I do in public health - advocate for those that cannot. Like kids under 5. Or people without paid time off to get a vaccine or recover from illness. There is never going to be be a time when I will ever say that's it - throw in the towel and just let a preventable disease wash over everyone.

[El Guapo]

Ok, but isn't that a catch-22? If 25% numbers are legit, then it's effectively done. Everyone is going to get it and soon if they haven't already. We'd be talking about 25% with symptoms even, so multiply by some number for the asymptomatic cases. I mean, yes, we slightly (10%? 20%?) delay it on the high side, but effectively, everyone that can be infected would be infected. Because clearly, if it's 25% today, surely it's another 15%-20% over the last 6 weeks.

If you're asking me to give up because "everyone is going to get it", I won't.

COVID-19 could metaphorically have me face down on the mat with my arms pinned behind my back and I'm still going to push for anything and everything possible to stop spread. As cheesy as it sounds, that's what I do in public health - advocate for those that cannot. Like kids under 5. Or people without paid time off to get a vaccine or recover from illness. There is never going to be be a time when I will ever say that's it - throw in the towel and just let a preventable disease wash over everyone.

He's not. He's assessing how likely it is that the 25% number of accurate by analyzing what that number would mean in practice if accurate.

[Smoove_B]

Ah, I'm reading it like "Well if 25% measured have it, then I guess we can extrapolate that everyone really has it." Instead it's if the 25% is accurate what might that mean for actuals. This has also been highly debated with various academics theorizing there are anywhere between 5-10x as many cases as we see being reported daily, which is bonkers. I can't comment on their math, but it is definitely something being discussed.

Either way, Smoove B has your back. Always.

[Alefroth]

The other thing to remember is that we know that even people who have had covid are still susceptible to getting it again. While that may not be the case with omicron, we essentially need to prepare for a case in which it is.

Is there any reason to think we can't be re-infected with omicron?

[Pyperkub]

The other thing to remember is that we know that even people who have had covid are still susceptible to getting it again. While that may not be the case with omicron, we essentially need to prepare for a case in which it is.

Is there any reason to think we can't be re-infected with omicron?

Only one I can think of is that Omicron seems to be more of an upper respiratory infection, which is why it's both more mild (especially if vaxxed) and more contagious. I don't know if that would actually make a difference, but I kind of think it does due to better blood flow there.

[Smoove_B]

Is there any reason to think we can't be re-infected with omicron?

It's likely too soon to know for sure, but if I had to bet money, I'd bet on a virus with immune escape.

Only one I can think of is that Omicron seems to be more of an upper respiratory infection, which is why it's both more mild (especially if vaxxed) and more contagious. I don't know if that would actually make a difference, but I kind of think it does due to better blood flow there.

This is a point that keeps coming up. More and more, the belief is that COVID-19 isn't a respiratory virus (like influenza). Instead, it's a virus that seemingly attacks our circulatory system, transmitted through respiratory droplets. The details of where it makes entry (nose, eyeball, throat, lung) and where the first symptoms appear aren't necessarily related to where the disease actually manifests (organs, brain, circulatory system).

So that idea that it causes more "mild" symptoms in the nose or lungs or throat doesn't mean that it's not causing problems for your body on a systemic level.

[Smoove_B]

Hey, let's check in with COVID-19 minimizer Maggie Haberman from the NYT:

How it started/how it’s going

“Would welcome folks not continuing to say it’s all mild” is really <chef’s kiss>

[malchior]

I don't know if this has been talked about but the symptomatic phase for breakthroughs doesn't sound too different from alpha. My BIL is still really sick. He even had the pattern where it got better for a couple of days and then it came back and knocked him back down again. We talked to him today and he is having a *VERY* rough time right now.

My wife's intern tested positive at the Stephens' health center and has had a similar run. He was talking about return to work and just told her today that it came back and he's out of action again. That we have some fraction of the population going through this ... even if it's not '25%" you have to figure it'll still cause significant disruption.

[Smoove_B]

I don't know for sure, but I suspect that's also what's driving the hospital numbers. I don't think people with "the sniffles" are bum-rushing the ER as is being suggested. Instead, they're staying home initially, feeling a bit better, and then it takes a quick turn for the worse. They're still at lower risk for dying, but the fact that it seems to be getting worse and not better has them going to a hospital for evaluation (as you'd normally do). And yes, we're at that "at scale" portion of our current experiment. Even if it's just 1 to 2% of the cases for vaccinated people that have them concerned enough to hit an ER? That's...a lot of people. Add in the completely unvaccinated and those with only 1 or 2 shots? Chaos.

The numbers for today are still coming in and yes they do contain weekend backlog, but BNO has them over 1.4 million new cases reported. That's...insanity.

[Defiant]

When she says "really encouraging", it's in reference to the interviewers statement in her question, about "encouraging headlines" that the vaccines are very effective at preventing severe disease, but which some are taking out of context.

[noxiousdog]

Ah, I'm reading it like "Well if 25% measured have it, then I guess we can extrapolate that everyone really has it." Instead it's if the 25% is accurate what might that mean for actuals. This has also been highly debated with various academics theorizing there are anywhere between 5-10x as many cases as we see being reported daily, which is bonkers. I can't comment on their math, but it is definitely something being discussed.

Either way, Smoove B has your back. Always.

Right! It's not only bonkers, it's impossible. 125-250% of the population can't be infected.

I'm interested in why these numbers are being reported.

[Smoove_B]

Well, I'm only speaking about the nationwide numbers - if we have 1 million positives reported, we might be anywhere between 5 to 10 million actual positives - nationwide. How that scales down to various community members, I have no idea.

But the numbers I've seen on local levels for test positivity are quite fuzzy. Either people are getting it more than once in some towns -or- they are submitting more than one positive test per person. Or maybe both.

Also, in case you've been spared the information from the last few days, urine does not help with COVID. Also, don't feed your kids or kids friends your urine. Thanks.

I'm honestly just surprised it's taken this long for the "drink your own urine" nonsense to work its way into COVID disinformation. It's been popular in the echo chambers of mommy groups for years.

One woman recently said she gives pee popsicles to her kids AND their friends.

We really are slipping back into the dark ages. Also FB is an open sewer.

[LawBeefaroni]

Of course if you're already drinking your own urine, it can't hurt. Surely.

[El Guapo]

I have to think that members of 4chan and some subreddits are trying to see what they can get anti-vaxxers to accept in terms of anti-COVID treatments / preventative measures, right?

[Blackhawk]

...has anybody actually tried leeches for COVID?

[Unagi]

There is absolutely no way that is true. A woman is publicly posting about how she is sneaking her own urine into food she is serving to the neighborhood kids?
No

That has to be a troll.