Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Smoove_B »

Little Raven wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:05 pm That's fine. I just want to make sure I use the proper language going forward.
I still struggle with it, FWIW (remembering it, not using it). I think it's an idea that still gaining momentum, and I'd expect more attention now because of the change in direction at a federal level. However, any time there's an event like this, it seems to come back to the surface.

I've been trying to read along and follow it all still (the actual unfolding events) and days later, it's still mind-boggling to me. I legitimately have no idea how the average person is dealing with this.
The leadership in particular should be pilloried for not preparing for this when they knew the storm was coming. They didn't prepare adequately for it and didn't communicate the risk. They also didn't course correct after the last series of winter related failures. 10 years is enough time to figure out how to steer the country's biggest individual energy market towards a more resilient path. The choice not to was deliberate.
This is an interesting event to me only because it feels rather unique. To have a power grid compromised by weather and to not have addressed it seems rather blatant, yeah. But as has been pointed out, when you can try to justify cost savings by focusing on the group that will likely suffer the most (marginalized poor), I guess this is where you end up.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Alefroth »

Not even sure what to call this-

https://ktxs.com/news/local/colorado-ci ... ebook-post
Colorado City Mayor Tim Boyd has resigned.

Boyd acknowledged the resignation Tuesday afternoon while responding to criticism he received for a controversial Facebook post.

Tuesday morning, Boyd voiced his frustrations about residents who he said called him to complain about power and water outages.

"If you don’t have electricity, you step up and come up with a game plan to keep your family warm and safe," Boyd said. "Get off your ass and take care of your own family!"
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Defiant »

There's unconfirmed reports on twitter that Cruz is headed to Cancun. I'm not sold, but the resemblance in the photos is striking. I'm sure the media will report on it if the reports pan out.

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Little Raven »

Confirmed
A few minutes ago, former MSNBC journalist David Shuster confirmed on his Twitter handle that Cruz was flying with his family to Cancun for a few days. He wrote, "Just confirmed @SenTedCruz and his family flew to Cancun tonight for a few days at a resort they've visited before. Cruz seems to believe there isn't much for him to do in Texas for the millions of fellow Texans who remain without electricity/water and are literally freezing."
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by malchior »

Cascading levels of failure.

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Little Raven wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:55 am Confirmed
A few minutes ago, former MSNBC journalist David Shuster confirmed on his Twitter handle that Cruz was flying with his family to Cancun for a few days. He wrote, "Just confirmed @SenTedCruz and his family flew to Cancun tonight for a few days at a resort they've visited before. Cruz seems to believe there isn't much for him to do in Texas for the millions of fellow Texans who remain without electricity/water and are literally freezing."
"Texans, while you were literally freezing to death, your Senator flew his family to a tropical paradise to wait out the crisis!"

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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I've been trying to read along and follow it all still (the actual unfolding events) and days later, it's still mind-boggling to me. I legitimately have no idea how the average person is dealing with this.
This. All ya'll have my sympathies. I about killed myself shoveling my driveway when my snowblower broke. 3 days of no power in below 0 temps for an hour drive in any direction? I can't fathom. In the very early 70s I remember 3 weeks of no power one winter after 3' snow dump, but it was warm enough that a butane(?) heater in the living room could let the family sleep at night and coats were good enough in the day. We could drive the to the DPW for fresh water and gas stations had power and were getting gas.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Smoove_B »

In case you didn't think this whole thing was depressing enough


THREAD: There are 9,000 people caged in the downtown Houston jail, most of them solely because they can't pay cash. The situation is getting dire: "We don't have any running water anymore." People are sleeping on floors, toilets are clogged and covered in plastic bags because of the smell. People report not being given drinking water. When asked about water, guards have said: "you shouldn't have f**ing gotten locked up."
Also, this:
Angel Garcia, a nurse from Killeen, Texas, told CNN that she and her family are monitoring their 5-month old son, who was born premature and is running out of oxygen supply.
The family, with no heat in their home, has resorted to burning their toddler's toy blocks as firewood.
"A lot of people don't know the severity of what's going on. People are tearing down their fences to burn," Garcia said, in tears.
Why don't they just get on a plane and go to Cancun?

Read more here.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by $iljanus »

Texas is like a microcosm of the post apocalypse and El Paso with its stable power supply is like Bartertown.

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Holman »

$iljanus wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:22 am Texas is like a microcosm of the post apocalypse and El Paso with its stable power supply is like Bartertown.
Or we could go with Snowpiercer for this one.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Holman wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:24 am
$iljanus wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:22 am Texas is like a microcosm of the post apocalypse and El Paso with its stable power supply is like Bartertown.
Or we could go with Snowpiercer for this one.
Texas votes Republican and they don't care. Soon as this passes it will be big business as usual. Putting money in the pockets of the GOP who dont give a shit about their people and the people continuing to go with it.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Daehawk wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:33 am
Holman wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:24 am
$iljanus wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:22 am Texas is like a microcosm of the post apocalypse and El Paso with its stable power supply is like Bartertown.
Or we could go with Snowpiercer for this one.
Texas votes Republican and they don't care. Soon as this passes it will be big business as usual. Putting money in the pockets of the GOP who dont give a shit about their people and the people continuing to go with it.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by noxiousdog »

This event is really complex and we won't know the full outcomes or reasons for a while.

1) There's tons of stupid getting press. See: Cruz, Perry, and Abbott.
2) The delivery mechanism is the biggest issue. Someone(s) at the distributors decided to not do rolling blackouts, but decided to just let people freeze for days. This (theoretically) has been addressed. If rolling blackouts had been used, the amount of pain would be SIGNIFICANTLY less. Maybe 90% less.
3) This was a once a century event, depending on whether climate change is going to make this worse, which I suspect it is. It has not been this cold in February in 130 years. Generation is offline and in maintenance because it needs to be to prepare for summer.
4) Texas has middle of the pack electricity rates, so it's not like some of this is saving tons.
5) This stuff still happens in other states with high regulation. California had the PG&E outages and there was a big Northeast outage a few years back as well. And of course thats just general items, let alone natural disasters.

That being said, there will be lessons learned, and the corporate/political interests decided not to take the recommendations out of the '89 incident. We'll see what happens going forward.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by LordMortis »

There's tons of stupid getting press. See: Cruz, Perry, and Abbott.
From the outside, these are the decision makers and influencers and the press is all we see beyond talking to people we know experiencing the pain.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Daehawk »

Guy credits his Tesla for saving his family one night.

Tesla Car Saves Family with a Newborn from Freezing in Texas
Razzooz revealed that they had a newborn daughter, so they couldn't just cover her with a few blankets and go to bed in the house. He and his wife decided to spend the night in their Model 3, which could safely keep the whole family and their dog warm for the whole night. Razzooz was very pleased that he had this wonderful opportunity and the family spent this cold night comfortably and warmly.

"So my wife my dog ​​and my newborn daughter slept in the garage in our Model 3 all nice and cozy. If I didn't have this car, it would have been a very rough night."
So moral of the story is 'Genius can afford a $40,000 car thats useless without power but cant buy a $30 kerosene heater? Figures.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Daehawk wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:09 pm Guy credits his Tesla for saving his family one night.

Tesla Car Saves Family with a Newborn from Freezing in Texas
Razzooz revealed that they had a newborn daughter, so they couldn't just cover her with a few blankets and go to bed in the house. He and his wife decided to spend the night in their Model 3, which could safely keep the whole family and their dog warm for the whole night. Razzooz was very pleased that he had this wonderful opportunity and the family spent this cold night comfortably and warmly.

"So my wife my dog ​​and my newborn daughter slept in the garage in our Model 3 all nice and cozy. If I didn't have this car, it would have been a very rough night."
So moral of the story is 'Genius can afford a $40,000 car thats useless without power but cant buy a $30 kerosene heater? Figures.
I guess in your world I'm an idiot too for not having a $30 kerosene heater.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Isgrimnur »

Do you think there might be a shortage of kerosene heaters in Texas at the moment? And people that don't want to expose their family to CO poisoning?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by LordMortis »

Or kerosene for that matter.

Can Amazon get that to you next day?
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Daehawk wrote:Guy credits his Tesla for saving his family one night.

Tesla Car Saves Family with a Newborn from Freezing in Texas
Razzooz revealed that they had a newborn daughter, so they couldn't just cover her with a few blankets and go to bed in the house. He and his wife decided to spend the night in their Model 3, which could safely keep the whole family and their dog warm for the whole night. Razzooz was very pleased that he had this wonderful opportunity and the family spent this cold night comfortably and warmly.

"So my wife my dog ​​and my newborn daughter slept in the garage in our Model 3 all nice and cozy. If I didn't have this car, it would have been a very rough night."
So moral of the story is 'Genius can afford a $40,000 car thats useless without power but cant buy a $30 kerosene heater? Figures.
You're absolutely right. He should have known at some point to buy a thing that is not widely displayed where for the one night in the future that he may need even though Noone since his great grandfather had need of one in his home. What a dipshit.

Lets ignore the fact that within 48 hours prior the SHTF kerosene was nowhere to be found.

He had a source of insulation and heat. He adapted. Good for him. We heated rocks and ceramic pots so my inlaws wouldnt sleep in freezing air.

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Combustible Lemur »

Also, where was he that his house lost a dangerous amount of heat in six hrs? It took us two days to get below 40 inside. And we were still cozy with just camdles blankets and dogs. And we have a big ass semi wasteful house. A tight heat conserving battery powered box? Sounds comfy.

Edit :sorry for the pile on i got triple bammed.


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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:46 am 2) The delivery mechanism is the biggest issue. Someone(s) at the distributors decided to not do rolling blackouts, but decided to just let people freeze for days. This (theoretically) has been addressed. If rolling blackouts had been used, the amount of pain would be SIGNIFICANTLY less. Maybe 90% less.
Demonstrably not true. Failure to roll was a factor but the biggest issue was that demand outstripped generation by 20 GW system-wide for several days. They stopped trying to maintain 60 Hz when they issued their EEA3 directive on Sunday night/Monday early morning. That is a big deal btw. One power trader mentioned they saw a slight blip below 55.8 Hz and they suspect some of the forced outages were a result of bulk electric system desynchronization that luckily didn't cascade, but in effect the whole grid almost fell over. (I think ERCOT has even acknowledged they nearly completely failed).

In any case rolling black outs would have spread the pain out but would not have helped "90%" whatever that means. The problem is Texas has had a prolonged, profound Forced Outage generation shortfall that hasn't been seen anywhere in the United States. Maybe someone can find something like this during the energy crisis but I doubt it.

More what was happening was that certain zones were kept always on because they supplied hospitals, life safety facilities, etc. In Austin, I saw a note that Austin Energy directed 60% of the available *diminished* capacity to critical customers. That 40% of the smaller pot than needed wasn't rolling around. It certainly would have helped, especially if it was communicated so people could prepare, but it would have had limited impact. FWIW I have a friend in Houston and a colleague there who've been out for days. Same thing with one colleague in San Antonio. It hasn't been addressed for them.
3) This was a once a century event, depending on whether climate change is going to make this worse, which I suspect it is. It has not been this cold in February in 130 years. Generation is offline and in maintenance because it needs to be to prepare for summer.
The weather facts might be are true but the bit about summer prep is a stretch at best that they are throwing around. At the root of that, ERCOT can not mandate winterization or approve/disapprove scheduled outages unlike *every other* ISO in the United States. As Elon accurately said, the R is totally absent in the their mission but it isn't their fault. They don't have the power to ask for it. That lack of capability to mandate reserve coverage is in the design of the system. The architects of the marketplace expect the market to essentially provide for it through pricing mechanisms and incentives. It didn't work...like it didn't work in 2011 and to a lesser extent in 2018. It has been an epic market failure. They can argue that the system would have had failures but this scope is well beyond this type of excuse making.
5) This stuff still happens in other states with high regulation. California had the PG&E outages and there was a big Northeast outage a few years back as well. And of course thats just general items, let alone natural disasters.
This is very, very, very different from the NE outage which was much shorter in duration and had a totally different (and btw fixed) problem. A single transmission line failed. PJM, NYISO, and NE-ISO directed transmission operators to cross-connect critical links about...15 years ago after that happened in 2003 IIRC. In anticipation of climate change impact they've also directed system-wide transmission upgrades. But that is because they have the authority to do so. At the street level we have utilities that are still a huge mess though for some balance (JCPL in NJ, O&R in NJ/NY are good examples of shit shows). Still we made fixes to that failure years ago.

California's outage was localized as well. It didn't involve more than 25% of the state for almost a whole week. In other words, the scales are not comparable. This is easily the worst power failure in modern history after the energy crisis by...a lot.
That being said, there will be lessons learned, and the corporate/political interests decided not to take the recommendations out of the '89 incident. We'll see what happens going forward.
FERC issued a 400 page report after the 2011 incident. I remember when my former employer, an NRG company in Texas, basically said the upgrades weren't worth it since we would make more in a failure. Not quite that blunt obviously but that was the message. In any case, that 2011 incident has remarkable overlap "system-wide" to this one. To acknowledge it again, this event is pro-longed and hit harder but the market essentially made very few changes based on shortcomings raised in the 2011 report. They said the market will fix it. It didn't.

That said, I expect the report on this to hit in the August/September time frame. Hopefully, it'll open enough eyes to get some of these gaps closed because you have a hell of a problem down there.
Last edited by malchior on Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Combustible Lemur wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:21 pm
Daehawk wrote:Guy credits his Tesla for saving his family one night.

Tesla Car Saves Family with a Newborn from Freezing in Texas
Razzooz revealed that they had a newborn daughter, so they couldn't just cover her with a few blankets and go to bed in the house. He and his wife decided to spend the night in their Model 3, which could safely keep the whole family and their dog warm for the whole night. Razzooz was very pleased that he had this wonderful opportunity and the family spent this cold night comfortably and warmly.

"So my wife my dog ​​and my newborn daughter slept in the garage in our Model 3 all nice and cozy. If I didn't have this car, it would have been a very rough night."
So moral of the story is 'Genius can afford a $40,000 car thats useless without power but cant buy a $30 kerosene heater? Figures.
You're absolutely right. He should have known at some point to buy a thing that is not widely displayed where for the one night in the future that he may need even though Noone since his great grandfather had need of one in his home. What a dipshit.

Lets ignore the fact that within 48 hours prior the SHTF kerosene was nowhere to be found.

He had a source of insulation and heat. He adapted. Good for him. We heated rocks and ceramic pots so my inlaws wouldnt sleep in freezing air.

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As he's quoted as saying, it would have been a rough night without it. No one would have died, probably, but the car was a convenient, safe solution.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Lets ignore the fact that within 48 hours prior the SHTF kerosene was nowhere to be found.
I have a jug I keep. I used half yesterday and will use the other half perhaps in a few days. Its been here waiting on me to use it since 2018 or 2017.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Smoove_B »

I saw there was a boil water advisory issued for ~7 million people in TX, which is (to repeat a phrase), mind boggling. 7 million people told their water needs to be boiled is...insane.
Without power to run water treatment plants, city and state officials across Texas are pleading with residents to conserve water and are issuing boil-water notices.

The warnings not to consume water out of the tap began in many places as early as Monday, but as of Wednesday night many municipalities had expanded those orders as the state grapples with the ongoing weather, energy and water crises that have placed unprecedented strain on the state's entire power grid.
For reference, in emergencies like these, having access to safe, clean drinking water is paramount. People are already stressed mentally and physically (cold, lack of electricity). And now they might not have water to drink? It's absolutely a humanitarian crisis.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Fact Check: Did Wealthy Areas Around Dallas Not Experience Rolling Power Outages?

Wealthy neighborhoods in Texas get slammed for having electricity
Multiple social media users have expressed complaints, claiming that wealthy regions of Texas have not been hit by rolling blackouts while many have suffered without power for over a day.

One Twitter user on Tuesday posted, "Hey @CityOfDallas care to explain why the wealthiest section of Dallas has not experienced any loss of power while all other areas have been down/had rolling blackouts for over 24 hours?" in a tweet that received more than 300 likes and 100 retweets.
One tweet also claimed Uptown, Preston Hollow and Farmers Branch as other Dallas areas that did not lose power.

"It's so wild that this is how we're living in our minority-majority communities, but Highland Park, Uptown, Preston Hollow, and Farmers Branch never even lost power. #texaspoweroutage."
Enlarge Image
"Highland Park, one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in Texas, has had power this entire time. Meanwhile my parents spent much of the day in their car staying warm and will be sleeping in sleeping bags tonight. I hope a million investigations are opened after all of this," Riley Stearns, a writer and director, tweeted Tuesday night.


Enlarge Image
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by stimpy »

How in the world will Cruz not be forced to resign after this unbelievable lack of common sense?
I dont care how fucking red you are, shit like this is just inexcusable.
The gall of some of these politicians is just appalling.
How far we have fallen that the politicians feel so bulletproof.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by malchior »

My lack of surprise is pretty high on the wealthy neighborhood thing. Let's be real. We're more like Brazil or Russia then we are to our "peer" modern advanced economies. That is why I'm a bit bent around the axle on this whole thing for 2 reasons.

One: I know what is going on well beyond the high-level that the media is talking about and I see a ton of spin that I absolutely think you need to cut through to understand what happened here. It is a system design failure. When I see people pointing at failures in other systems, that is whataboutism. And maybe the weather might have caused a failure no matter what but no other modern electric system has failed this big or this badly. It still doesn't change that the root cause is understood but those experts are being ignored for political reasons.

Two: IMO this is a potential view into our future. Notice how all the people responsible to fix this problem are talking about nonsense problems. That is their job now. They don't serve their constituents. Their job is to carry water for their donors who want to keep pushing whatever makes the donors money. In this case, the fossil fuel angle. More coal, oil, and gas would have solved this issue. "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain". This is ugly stuff and it is what may happen. As our problems get bigger, we very well might catch our politicians working for the people whose lights didn't get turned off instead of everyone else. It really still feels like the future is way less United Federation of Planets and way more Cyberpunk 2077 - in its released state to boot!
stimpy wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:50 pm How in the world will Cruz not be forced to resign after this unbelievable lack of common sense?
I dont care how fucking red you are, shit like this is just inexcusable.
The gall of some of these politicians is just appalling.
How far we have fallen that the politicians feel so bulletproof.
Why wouldn't they feel bulletproof. Nothing matters anymore.
Last edited by malchior on Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Combustible Lemur »

Daehawk wrote:
Lets ignore the fact that within 48 hours prior the SHTF kerosene was nowhere to be found.
I have a jug I keep. I used half yesterday and will use the other half perhaps in a few days. Its been here waiting on me to use it since 2018 or 2017.
Image So not since 1899? Or 1989 for that matter.
Fwiw. Im all about being prepared. But kerosene heater in (my area) texas, are a camping luxury, not basic readiness. Propane stove on the other hand or some other boiling fuel. For 130years houston is far more likely to need a good evacuation vehicle than a heater.

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by malchior »

Combustible Lemur wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:03 pmFor 130years houston is far more likely to need a good evacuation vehicle than a heater.
The one thing I never got used to about Houston was those rain gauges on the underpasses.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Actual image from my living room last night....

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

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Why was Sulu in your home?
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:38 pm I saw there was a boil water advisory issued for ~7 million people in TX, which is (to repeat a phrase), mind boggling. 7 million people told their water needs to be boiled is...insane.
Without power to run water treatment plants, city and state officials across Texas are pleading with residents to conserve water and are issuing boil-water notices.

The warnings not to consume water out of the tap began in many places as early as Monday, but as of Wednesday night many municipalities had expanded those orders as the state grapples with the ongoing weather, energy and water crises that have placed unprecedented strain on the state's entire power grid.
For reference, in emergencies like these, having access to safe, clean drinking water is paramount. People are already stressed mentally and physically (cold, lack of electricity). And now they might not have water to drink? It's absolutely a humanitarian crisis.
My wife used to give me shit for my IFAKs and lifestraws and PPE stash and SHTF training classes. After the last year, not so much.

Potable water came up again last week.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Daehawk »

This kind of stuff makes me wonder yet again why we dont have wireless power. Tesla could do it 100 years ago. :)
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by raydude »

Daehawk wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:36 pm This kind of stuff makes me wonder yet again why we dont have wireless power. Tesla could do it 100 years ago. :)
I thought the problem was the generation of power, not the transmission of it? Texas could have converted to the transfer of electricity by magic and they'd still be in this mess.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Little Raven »

That is correct. The grid is overwhelmingly still physically intact and capable of delivering power, there just isn't enough power being generated. And in our grid, if demand ever exceeds supply, very very bad things happen.

The situation is (very slowly) improving. More power is coming online, and more people are getting power restored, but we have a long way to go, and the temps are looking to stay low for at least a couple more days.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by noxiousdog »

malchior wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:28 pm Demonstrably not true. Failure to roll was a factor but the biggest issue was that demand outstripped generation by 20 GW system-wide for several days. They stopped trying to maintain 60 Hz when they issued their EEA3 directive on Sunday night/Monday early morning. That is a big deal btw. One power trader mentioned they saw a slight blip below 55.8 Hz and they suspect some of the forced outages were a result of bulk electric system desynchronization that luckily didn't cascade, but in effect the whole grid almost fell over. (I think ERCOT has even acknowledged they nearly completely failed).

In any case rolling black outs would have spread the pain out but would not have helped "90%" whatever that means. The problem is Texas has had a prolonged, profound Forced Outage generation shortfall that hasn't been seen anywhere in the United States. Maybe someone can find something like this during the energy crisis but I doubt it.
Are you saying that every grid in the US maintains a 30% generation buffer at all times? I'm skeptical.
The weather facts might be are true but the bit about summer prep is a stretch at best that they are throwing around. At the root of that, ERCOT can not mandate winterization or approve/disapprove scheduled outages unlike *every other* ISO in the United States. As Elon accurately said, the R is totally absent in the their mission but it isn't their fault. They don't have the power to ask for it. That lack of capability to mandate reserve coverage is in the design of the system. The architects of the marketplace expect the market to essentially provide for it through pricing mechanisms and incentives. It didn't work...like it didn't work in 2011 and to a lesser extent in 2018. It has been an epic market failure. They can argue that the system would have had failures but this scope is well beyond this type of excuse making.
Agreed. Hence the comments that we knew about this in '89 and did nothing.
This is very, very, very different from the NE outage which was much shorter in duration and had a totally different (and btw fixed) problem. A single transmission line failed. PJM, NYISO, and NE-ISO directed transmission operators to cross-connect critical links about...15 years ago after that happened in 2003 IIRC. In anticipation of climate change impact they've also directed system-wide transmission upgrades. But that is because they have the authority to do so. At the street level we have utilities that are still a huge mess though for some balance (JCPL in NJ, O&R in NJ/NY are good examples of shit shows). Still we made fixes to that failure years ago.

California's outage was localized as well. It didn't involve more than 25% of the state for almost a whole week. In other words, the scales are not comparable. This is easily the worst power failure in modern history after the energy crisis by...a lot.
Of course it is. It's a natural disaster. We just set 130 year old temperature records across 270,000 square miles and 30 million people. Also, not almost a whole week. 36 hours.
That being said, there will be lessons learned, and the corporate/political interests decided not to take the recommendations out of the '89 incident. We'll see what happens going forward.
FERC issued a 400 page report after the 2011 incident. I remember when my former employer, an NRG company in Texas, basically said the upgrades weren't worth it since we would make more in a failure. Not quite that blunt obviously but that was the message. In any case, that 2011 incident has remarkable overlap "system-wide" to this one. To acknowledge it again, this event is pro-longed and hit harder but the market essentially made very few changes based on shortcomings raised in the 2011 report. They said the market will fix it. It didn't.

That said, I expect the report on this to hit in the August/September time frame. Hopefully, it'll open enough eyes to get some of these gaps closed because you have a hell of a problem down there.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:33 pm Potable water came up again last week.
I rotate a few gallons in fridge every week because I like filtered water better than water off the tap and I quit buying bottled water. I wonder how much potable water is "enough"
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by Little Raven »

We always keep a few gallons in the garage. Assuming that stuff is up and running by Monday (seems likely, at this point) we'll be ok.
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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by LordMortis »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:52 pm Are you saying that every grid in the US maintains a 30% generation buffer at all times? I'm skeptical.
Our grids are combined in to two giant grids that "borrow" from each other, to spread the mitigation of risk and recovery. ERCOT(?) could be part of the eastern or western interconnect but elects not to take on the burden of being part of either presumably because your PTB do not like cost benefit analysis.

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Re: Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

Post by malchior »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:52 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:28 pm Demonstrably not true. Failure to roll was a factor but the biggest issue was that demand outstripped generation by 20 GW system-wide for several days. They stopped trying to maintain 60 Hz when they issued their EEA3 directive on Sunday night/Monday early morning. That is a big deal btw. One power trader mentioned they saw a slight blip below 55.8 Hz and they suspect some of the forced outages were a result of bulk electric system desynchronization that luckily didn't cascade, but in effect the whole grid almost fell over. (I think ERCOT has even acknowledged they nearly completely failed).

In any case rolling black outs would have spread the pain out but would not have helped "90%" whatever that means. The problem is Texas has had a prolonged, profound Forced Outage generation shortfall that hasn't been seen anywhere in the United States. Maybe someone can find something like this during the energy crisis but I doubt it.
Are you saying that every grid in the US maintains a 30% generation buffer at all times? I'm skeptical.
I never said anything close to this. That said the state had something like 30% of the capacity of the system in Forced or Scheduled Outages on Monday though. That's crazy.
Of course it is. It's a natural disaster. We just set 130 year old temperature records across 270,000 square miles and 30 million people. Also, not almost a whole week. 36 hours.
36 hours? Wut? Maybe it's just pockets now but it has been at least 72 hours so far. ERCOT is still reporting EEA3 meaning they are demanding rolling outages still. It isn't resolved yet.

Edit: Just looked - they issued the EEA3 at 1 AM CST on Monday. So they've been in their most critical alert period for...80+ hours. Again this is unprecedented scale.

The gap between forecast and actual is pretty wide...because they haven't turned up big portions of the grid. I am actively talking to someone in the dark via Slack on his phone because his power is still off in Houston *right now*. And another in San Antonio *right now*. They are actually chatting about solar/battery systems while they dial for plumbers and are trying to flexseal pipes. Side note: Flexseal doesn't work. Shocker.
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