Hurricane Season (and other significant weather events) 2021

[jztemple2]

We had to install two water control systems in our old house — a backwater valve as well as a drain tile system.

My new place has two systems too. And it’s time to reinspect the pipe for roots intrusion.

The downside of living in a swamp turned city.

It's been a half-century since I lived in a house with a basement, so I can only imagine what you are talking about

[hitbyambulance]

not quite a quarter after 11AM and it's 98F. feels like Austin TX in August (usual June weather here at this time is very cloudy/overcast, possibly raining and high 60s/low 70s)

have to say, the potted succulents are doing well

EDIT: 100F at noon. the company sent out an email saying all employees (and contractors), immediate family and pets are welcome to come into the office today (pets must be leashed/crated and always under control) to take advantage of the building's HVAC. the tiny home central cooling systems people have installed in this region just can't keep up.

[jztemple2]

Model paths for what is now Danny. Residents around Lake Erie are cautioned to look for circling depressions

[Ralph-Wiggum]

We are starting to get hit by Danny. Expecting rain and some semi-high winds, but the worst of it will probably be south of us. The bigger concern is how high the storm surge will be, but fortunately, Danny is hitting close to low tide, so I'm not expecting much flooding.

[jztemple2]

We are starting to get hit by Danny. Expecting rain and some semi-high winds, but the worst of it will probably be south of us. The bigger concern is how high the storm surge will be, but fortunately, Danny is hitting close to low tide, so I'm not expecting much flooding.

Good to hear that it likely won't be much of an issue for you.

Meanwhile, just because I watched the video above, the one below got recommended to me. As a retired (semi-)Fluids Engineer, I enjoyed it.

[Max Peck]

Canada weather: Village of Lytton smashes heat record for second day

A village in Canada has recorded the country's highest ever temperature, just one day after it smashed the previous record.

Temperatures in Lytton, British Columbia, soared to 47.9C (118.2F) on Monday, up from 46.6C (116F) on Sunday.

Before this week, temperatures in Canada had never passed 45C (113F).

Meanwhile, temperatures in the US cities of Portland and Seattle have reached the highest levels since record-keeping began in the 1940s.

Portland in Oregon hit 46.1C (115F) and Seattle 42.2C (108F), according to the US National Weather Service.

Experts say that climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves. However, linking any single event to global warming is complicated.

[jztemple2]

Danny downgrades, but now there are two areas of interest in the Atlantic. For more information, check out Tropics buzzing with activity more typical of August than June From Yale Climate Connections.

The Atlantic was abuzz with tropical activity more typical of August than late June on Tuesday. The remnants of the season’s second landfalling storm, Danny, were pushing inland over the southeast U.S., and two tropical waves with the potential to develop into tropical storms, 95L and 97L, were speeding across the tropical Atlantic towards the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Current Five Day Outlook Image is updated by NHC every few hours.

[jztemple2]

More extreme weather: Half the country is facing an apocalyptic summer

Deep drought and early heat waves are setting the western half of the United States up for a dry, fiery summer.

About 91% of the West was in drought as of June 22, with 55% experiencing extreme or exceptional drought, while two back-to-back heat waves exacerbated the drying of soils and vegetation, increasing the potential for wildfires. Meanwhile, water supplies are dwindling: Lake Mead, the reservoir formed by the Hoover Dam, is the lowest it has been since the 1930s when it was first filled, and California's reservoirs are 50% lower than usual for this time of year, according to the Associated Press.

The current conditions are part of a 22-year-long drought in the western U.S., the likes of which have not been seen for more than 400 years prior to 2000. But this summer is likely to eclipse the drought of the last two decades, said Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

"Even in the context of those last 20 years of drought this year really stands out," Cook told Live Science. "For the Southwest, it's very likely to be the worst single year of drought since 2002."

At least they are taking it in stride at Death Valley:

[Hamlet3145]

Canada weather: Village of Lytton smashes heat record for second day

A village in Canada has recorded the country's highest ever temperature, just one day after it smashed the previous record.

Temperatures in Lytton, British Columbia, soared to 47.9C (118.2F) on Monday, up from 46.6C (116F) on Sunday.
.

Frankly, reaching that temperature in Canada is terrifying.

[Max Peck]

Apparently the heat dome extends all the way up to the Territories. It is hotter today in Yellowknife than it is here in Ottawa.

[hitbyambulance]

More extreme weather: Half the country is facing an apocalyptic summer

Deep drought and early heat waves are setting the western half of the United States up for a dry, fiery summer.

About 91% of the West was in drought as of June 22, with 55% experiencing extreme or exceptional drought, while two back-to-back heat waves exacerbated the drying of soils and vegetation, increasing the potential for wildfires. Meanwhile, water supplies are dwindling: Lake Mead, the reservoir formed by the Hoover Dam, is the lowest it has been since the 1930s when it was first filled, and California's reservoirs are 50% lower than usual for this time of year, according to the Associated Press.

The current conditions are part of a 22-year-long drought in the western U.S., the likes of which have not been seen for more than 400 years prior to 2000. But this summer is likely to eclipse the drought of the last two decades, said Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

"Even in the context of those last 20 years of drought this year really stands out," Cook told Live Science. "For the Southwest, it's very likely to be the worst single year of drought since 2002."

i'm kinda at the point of 'what's the use of even living anymore'. it looks like a future of climate misery for the rest of my existence and there's no escape anywhere. you could say despair has set in...

[Biyobi]

At least they are taking it in stride at Death Valley:

Broken sign. Based on that photo she's probably at most 36C.

The L.A. area is grateful to Washington and Oregon for taking one for the West Coast team. We're here for you if you need us (send water).

[Isgrimnur]

KTNV

Death Valley, California, hit 128° on Thursday [June 17th], shattering the previous daily record of 122° set in 1917 and coming just a few degrees shy of the global record set in 1913 for the hottest recorded temperature on Earth.

According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the hottest official temperature ever recorded on Earth was also at Death Valley in 1913 when Greenland Ranch hit 134°.
...
According to National Weather Service records, Death Valley only hit 134 once on July 10, 1913. A reading of 131° was recorded on July 13 and 130° was recorded on July 12 of the same year.
...
2020 even produced a reading of 130° at the park, recorded on Aug. 16, but that has not been verified yet. The park says a final verification process will be overseen by a climate extremes committee. If verified, it would be the hottest temperature recorded in the park since 1913 and possibly the hottest temperature in the world since 1931.

[YellowKing]

This year was the first time in my life I've ever bought travel insurance, for our Orlando vacation in September. We narrowly avoided a hurricane around the same time period last time we went, and my brother got screwed over due to one his last trip. The cheapskate in me REALLY didn't want to pay it, but knowing I won't have to stress over it is nice peace of mind.

[Exodor]

Portland hit 116 yesterday before the winds shifted and cooler ocean air invaded the valley eventually dropping the temp 52 degrees.

Also this is just nuts:

[jztemple2]

This year was the first time in my life I've ever bought travel insurance, for our Orlando vacation in September. We narrowly avoided a hurricane around the same time period last time we went, and my brother got screwed over due to one his last trip. The cheapskate in me REALLY didn't want to pay it, but knowing I won't have to stress over it is nice peace of mind.

Ah, the irony. My wife and I usually take trips out of Florida in the fall, which has meant in the past few years occasional calls to our neighbors to find out how our home has done during this hurricane or that. When Irma came through a few years ago and knocked out power to 2/3rds of the home in Florida, we were in Jackson, WY.

Even if we don't have a trip planned, our rule is that it is better to go spend a few days in a hotel somewhere rather than staying in a house with no a/c and perhaps no toilets. Happily we have neighbors across the street who are the type that don't evacuate so they look after our home.

By the way, you do know that September 10th is the peak of the hurricane season around here?

[jztemple2]

Also this is just nuts:

Hmm, I didn't realize that so much of California has had such high temperatures. We're planning a trip out there in (yes) September. Should we wait till October? We're looking at the area around Sacramento and San Francisco down to San Simeon.

[Isgrimnur]

I'll be in Panama City for the next week. Looks like it's mid-humid, highs in the 80s, and...

[Daehawk]

Haha Ive never seen him say more than one thing before...haha "CHUNKY!

I think the hottest its gotten around here in modern times is 107 or 110.

[jztemple2]

I'll be in Panama City for the next week. Looks like it's mid-humid, highs in the 80s, and...

I'm assuming you mean Panama City, FL, not Panama City in Panama , although the forecast is pretty much the same.

Yup, chance of rain pretty much every day. Florida in July

[Isgrimnur]

You are correct.

[naednek]

Also this is just nuts:

Hmm, I didn't realize that so much of California has had such high temperatures. We're planning a trip out there in (yes) September. Should we wait till October? We're looking at the area around Sacramento and San Francisco down to San Simeon.

Sacramento will be in the 90s in September. San Simeon is along the coast and will be cool as well as SF

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[jztemple2]

Things are getting exciting:

Current Five Day Outlook Image is updated by NHC every few hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles. This system has become less organized since yesterday, and significant development is no longer expected while it moves quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea. The wave should continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of the Lesser Antilles through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[jztemple2]

From Yale Climate Connections, The Caribbean’s first named storm of 2021 may now be brewing

The islands of the Caribbean may experience their first named storm of 2021 on Friday, when a developing disturbance in the central Atlantic passes though the Lesser Antilles. At 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, a tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, designated 97L by the National Hurricane Center, was headed west-northwest at about 20 mph. The system was positioned at a very low latitude, near 9°. This position close to the equator will slow development of 97L, as will the relatively large size of the system and its rapid forward speed of 20 mph. However, 97L otherwise had favorable conditions for development, with sea surface temperatures near 27.5 degrees Celsius (82°F), light-to-moderate wind shear of 5-15 knots, and a very moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 75%.

Track forecasts out to seven days for 97L from the 6Z (2 a.m. EDT) Wednesday, June 30, run of the GFS ensemble model (GEFS). The black line is the mean of the 31 ensemble members; individual ensemble member forecasts are the thin lines, color-coded by the central pressure they predict for 97L. Most of the members predicted that 97L would become a tropical storm and move west-northwestward through the Caribbean. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

Interests in the Panama City area next week might want to monitor this storm

[jztemple2]

NHC is plotting the potential track of TD5 now, but thinks it will remain a tropical storm and not intensify into a hurricane. Based upon what has happened in the past few years, I am skeptical

[Isgrimnur]

If it cancels my Tuesday night flight, I’ll just take the rest of the week off.

[The Meal]

MHS and myself, our daughter and six friends hope to fly out of CUN on Monday late morning.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Track forecasts out to seven days for 97L from the 6Z (2 a.m. EDT) Wednesday, June 30, run of the GFS ensemble model (GEFS). The black line is the mean of the 31 ensemble members

That black line looks like it's hitting Charleston square in the mouth. Fun.

[jztemple2]

Tropical Storm Elsa is earliest fifth named storm on record in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm warnings are up for much of the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles islands after the formation of Tropical Storm Elsa east of the islands at 5 a.m. EDT Thursday, July 1. At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, Elsa was speeding west at 28 mph with top winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb. The system was positioned at a very low latitude, near 10°. This position close to the equator will slow development of Elsa, as will the relatively large size of the system and its rapid forward speed. However, Elsa otherwise had favorable conditions for development, with sea surface temperatures near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F), light-to-moderate wind shear of 5-15 knots, and a moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 70%.

[jztemple2]

Elsa is gunning for us in Florida, although a lot of the energy will be lost over the mountains of Cuba.



Meanwhile, from Yale Climate Connections, Western Canada burns and deaths mount after world’s most extreme heat wave in modern history

Hundreds of North Americans – and perhaps many more yet to be tallied – have died of heat-related illness over the past week after a mind-boggling heat wave struck the U.S. Pacific Northwest U.S. and far southwest Canada. It’s virtually certain to be the deadliest weather event on record for the region. The unprecedented death toll is the result of a heat onslaught more intense by some measures than anything in global records, yet very much in line with the expected impacts of a human-warmed climate.

The poster community of this horrific episode has to be Lytton, British Columbia. The town broke Canada’s longstanding all-time national high temperature of 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) with a high of 46.6°C (116°F) on Sunday, June 27. The next day brought 47.9°C (118.2°F), and Tuesday a stunning 49.6°C (121°F).

The intense heat flash-dried the rugged, forested landscape, and wildfires mushroomed across the area on Wednesday, June 30. By evening, the entire town of Lytton was under mandatory evacuation orders, and Mayor Jan Polderman told CBC News that “the whole town is on fire.” Most homes in Lytton have been destroyed, according to provincial authorities.

The lighting from the dry thunderstorms (pyrocumulonimbus) that developed was so intense that over 700,000 intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes were recorded in 15 hours, including more than 100,000 cloud-to-ground strikes. That’s about 5% of the total number of lightning flashes Canada typically sees in an entire year (see Tweet below).

The fires have generated huge clouds of choking smoke that put air quality in the red “Unhealthy” range in Kamloops, British Columbia, on Thursday.

[Isgrimnur]

Elsa is gunning for us in Florida, although a lot of the energy will be lost over the mountains of Cuba.

IF it actually goes over them.

[YellowKing]

I just need the rain to be the hell away from NC by Saturday. Fortunately it looks like they've sped its track up considerably.

[hitbyambulance]

I just need the rain to be the hell away from NC by Saturday. Fortunately it looks like they've sped its track up considerably.

rain... would be really great here, now.

[Isgrimnur]

Should be past NC by Friday. And looks like I’ll get out of FL at least 12 hours before it could reach my area.

Also doesn’t look like it will make it back to a hurricane.

[jztemple2]

To help understand the difference between a Watch and a Warning:



Here on the East Coast of Florida we aren't expecting high winds, but we do have a chance of tornadoes and heavy rain, starting later today and going into tomorrow morning.

[malchior]

Here on the East Coast of Florida we aren't expecting high winds, but we do have a chance of tornadoes and heavy rain, starting later today and going into tomorrow morning.

So a normal summer day in Florida.

[jztemple2]

Here on the East Coast of Florida we aren't expecting high winds, but we do have a chance of tornadoes and heavy rain, starting later today and going into tomorrow morning.

So a normal summer day in Florida.

True for all but the tornadoes. Our usual convective thunderstorms don't have the rotation to start up tornadoes, except perhaps for the occasional minor EF0 twisters. It usually takes a squall line to generate the rotation in the cells to make the more deadly tornadoes. That's why we see them both in the summer with tropical storms & hurricanes and in the winter with cold fronts coming through.

Yup, otherwise on a typical mid-Florida summer afternoon we might get a cell that generates 50+ mph winds and more than an inch per hour rain. Happily they move through pretty quickly.

[malchior]

Yup, otherwise on a typical mid-Florida summer afternoon we might get a cell that generates 50+ mph winds and more than an inch per hour rain. Happily they move through pretty quickly.

I spent 4 months working a job about 10 years ago down there and had/have family who live there. I learned to enjoy the sudden, quick afternoon storms.

[jztemple2]

Yup, otherwise on a typical mid-Florida summer afternoon we might get a cell that generates 50+ mph winds and more than an inch per hour rain. Happily they move through pretty quickly.

I spent 4 months working a job about 10 years ago down there and had/have family who live there. I learned to enjoy the sudden, quick afternoon storms.

The nice thing is that it really helps to cool down the afternoons. It is especially good here on the East Coast, the anvil clouds of the thunderstorms that form in the interior help to block the sun on some days while on others the local cumulus clouds bring the afternoon showers.

[Kraken]

Our summer has caromed from record lows to record highs and back, with very few pauses in between. Memorial Day weekend was so cool that I put the heat on. The next week, we had a 5-day heat wave. We cycled like that once more, and then on July 3 we set another record low and I actually put the heat on again. Now we're back into the 90s.

Those cool spells are bringing an unusual amount of rain, too, so at least our drought is broken. Today and tomorrow we're watching for severe heat-driven thunderstorms, and then on Thursday and Friday we're supposed to get the remnants of tropical storm Elsa.

We aren't having dramatic or destructive weather, but certainly unusual.