Hurricane Season (and other significant weather events) 2021

[Isgrimnur]

They make rechargeable USB flashlights these days.

[Kraken]

They make rechargeable USB flashlights these days.

My torch takes D batteries, because I'm metal.

[jztemple2]

They make rechargeable USB flashlights these days.

My torch takes D batteries, because I'm metal.

I keep a case of D batteries for my hurricane lamps.

[jztemple2]

8pm Friday briefing from the NWS concerning Henri, available as a downloadable PDF

Also (if it works), direct link to NWS Boston/Norton - Tropical Web Page - Threats and Impacts

[telcta]

Oh yeah, you're in the bullseye. You need to buy batteries if you can find your flashlight, or at least dig out those patchouli candles.

Here’s hoping a fully charged electric car can help keep our devices going. I had picked up a small 300W DC converter that I use to charge my laptop. Maybe I can run an extension to the the hot water heater (gas) to run the fan.

I’m just glad it’s not middle of winter.

Also (if it works), direct link to NWS Boston/Norton - Tropical Web Page - Threats and Impacts

Thanks, jz.

[malchior]

I thought we'd be [relatively] safe in NJ but it does appear to be turning leftwards. I'll have to keep a close eye on it today and decide whether I need to secure the pool/yard. I have a 1kW sized solar setup/battery out in the gazebo and wouid haul in the system and panels to protect them. I should be able to power a couple critical loads until we get back up. We're in a priority zone so I figure we wouldn't be out for more than a day. I'm 1/3 mile away from the major switching yard where 3 branches of the hi-tension network meet up. We were up 8 hours after Sandy and they've improved the policy (from my viewpoint) since then.

Edit: The big scare for me is the possibility it hits NYC square and finishes off the train tunnels damaged by Sandy. I'd be the first person in that case to light torches to find Chris Christie.

[Kraken]

Time to go out and pick the garden, stow patio furniture, and generally prepare for high winds. Looks like we could potentially see 60 mph here. Last I heard it's not supposed to start until late tonight/early tomorrow, but I'm already noticing some impressively high piles of cumulus clouds drifting by.

[jztemple2]

Also (if it works), direct link to NWS Boston/Norton - Tropical Web Page - Threats and Impacts

Thanks, jz.

You're welcome. Over the years I've found a lot of resources for getting the right kind of information. That Threats and Impacts page I've found the most useful for getting to the real details.

[telcta]

Out of the roughly 1.25 million Eversource customers in Connecticut, between 50 and 69% could lose power and restoration efforts could last between eight and 21 days.

Oh, boy.

[jztemple2]

Out of the roughly 1.25 million Eversource customers in Connecticut, between 50 and 69% could lose power and restoration efforts could last between eight and 21 days.

Oh, boy.

Ah, the irony of the name

Boy, that's a lot of customers out of power and long times to fix them. I'm assuming that our local Florida power companies are already staging equipment to head that way.

[telcta]

We’ve had some long power outages from minor storms and a lot of people were upset with Eversource not being prepared. From what I understand, they are already staging trucks at mall parking lots and will be ready to work after the hurricane passes.

The trees are beautiful around here but I think we may be seeing less of them. Going to move the cars away from some of these big trees at our condo.

[Kraken]

In undramatic weather news, it hasn't fallen below 70 degrees here for 25 days. The record was in 2018 -- I think we went 30 days then, and we're likely to break that. My weather app doesn't show any cooldown until next weekend.

I'm tired of having to shower twice a day and change my shirt 3 times. Everything is perpetually damp. Our next house must have central AC.

[jztemple2]

In undramatic weather news, it hasn't fallen below 70 degrees here for 25 days. The record was in 2018 -- I think we went 30 days then, and we're likely to break that. My weather app doesn't show any cooldown until next weekend.

I'm tired of having to shower twice a day and change my shirt 3 times. Everything is perpetually damp. Our next house must have central AC.

That's the difference with having central air of course. This being Florida it hasn't been below seventy since maybe May, but with cars, homes, stores and restaurants having AC it's quite livable. I haven't lived in a place without central AC since I came home from college in Colorado about 44 years ago.

By the way, where is "The Hub of the Universe"?

[Kraken]

In undramatic weather news, it hasn't fallen below 70 degrees here for 25 days. The record was in 2018 -- I think we went 30 days then, and we're likely to break that. My weather app doesn't show any cooldown until next weekend.

I'm tired of having to shower twice a day and change my shirt 3 times. Everything is perpetually damp. Our next house must have central AC.

That's the difference with having central air of course. This being Florida it hasn't been below seventy since maybe May, but with cars, homes, stores and restaurants having AC it's quite livable. I haven't lived in a place without central AC since I came home from college in Colorado about 44 years ago.

By the way, where is "The Hub of the Universe"?

Why is Boston called the Hub of the Universe?

The hub is actually short for “The Hub of the Solar System” and it refers specifically to the Massachusetts State House. The golden domed building got this nickname in 1858 from Oliver Wendell Holmes. He wrote in an article, “[The] Boston State-House is the hub of the solar system.

We took over the rest of the universe when nobody else got there first.

I've only ever lived in 3 places with central air out of the 13 places I've lived. In New England, before AC existed houses were designed for shaded southern exposures and lots of windows to catch the breeze. There were only a few days a year when that wasn't enough cooling, and central air is an expensive retrofit in houses with radiant heat (no ducts). Nowadays shade trees are unfashionable and newer houses are all sealed and refrigerated. Nobody plants the oaks, maples, sycamores, ashes, and beeches that used to shade our streets. Now it's all decorative lollipop trees.

[malchior]

We got 5+ inches of rain in about 2 hours last night. I'm glad I prepped because the forecasts came nowhere near expecting this much rain locally. I've owned my house 9 years now and haven't seen any water in my basement and garage until this morning. Even after Sandy. It was just super high volume over a short period of time. Still it is luckily barely anything -- and only in the corner of the house.

[Kraken]

We got a steady rain this morning, now it's dry and breezy this afternoon. All within normal parameters.

[jztemple2]

Heavy rains and flooding were by far the biggest threat Henri posed on Sunday. Dry air entering the storm will keep the heaviest rains focused toward the west side of Henri, mainly across western Connecticut and Massachusetts, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey.

As Henri churned well offshore on Saturday night, a nearly stationary corridor of showers and thunderstorms developed from Henri northwest across New Jersey and far southeast New York, producing massive rainfall and flash flooding in some highly populated areas. The CoCoRaHS volunteer observing network reported these 24-hour totals as of Sunday morning:

7.94” East Windsor Township NJ;
6.88” Plainsboro Township NJ;
6.69” Hopewell NJ;
6.16” Brooklyn NY.
The National Weather Service/New York office reported widespread mesonet totals on Saturday night of 4-6” in Brooklyn and 1-4” in Queens.

Some mesoscale forecast models correctly predicted the heavy rains across southern and central New Jersey but missed the narrow ribbon of rains that streamed across the New York City area on Saturday night. The feature was “PRE-like” in that it partially resembled a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE), a large zone of rain that can develop along pre-existing frontal zones hundreds of miles north of an incoming tropical cyclone.

New York’s Central Park recorded an impressive 4.45” of rain in a four-hour period up to midnight Saturday night. This included a one-hour total of 1.94” between 10 and 11 p.m. EDT that was reportedly the highest one-hour total on record at Central Park, apparently going back to 1943. This is a surprisingly low amount for a one-hour rainfall record in the relatively wet northeast U.S. Rainfall records can vary greatly across small areas: on August 13, 2014, Long Island MacArthur Airport (about 50 miles east of Manhattan) received 5.34” in one hour and 4.37” in the following hour.

Daily rainfall measurements began at Central Park in 1869, but one-hour precipitation readings were not widely collected at area sites until the 1940s, when the growth in aviation demanded more frequent rain and snow information.

[Unagi]

Some talented video editor should put the Stranger Things shadow thing into sky on that video.

[Isgrimnur]

X marks the spot. Someone go dig up Jimmy Hoffa.

[jztemple2]

Current Five Day Outlook Image is updated by NHC every few hours.

[jztemple2]

deleted as being out of date info.

[Daehawk]

They are saying CAT 3 now . She's building up fast in the hot water. She'll be a 2 before she hits Cuba later this evening. Going to be 120+ mph by the gulf hit.

[jztemple2]

Yup, things are looking pretty serious now. However folks on the Gulf Coast always know this can happen so hopefully they can prepare and react.

Hurricane Ida Image is updated by NHC every few hours.

[jztemple2]

From Yale Climate Connections, Intensifying Hurricane Ida expected to strike Louisiana Sunday as a major hurricane

The Gulf Coast faces prospects of 120 mph winds, a 7-11’ storm surge, and 8-16” of rain.

[Daehawk]

Ida get'n nastee

[jztemple2]

From Why Ida is big trouble for Louisiana

Ida has many things working in its favor to become a major hurricane. There are no competing fronts and storm systems to deal with, and wind shear will be minimal as it cruises across the Gulf of Mexico. But two key components could allow Ida to cause major problems for Louisiana. The first is the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.



The Gulf in late August is one of the warmest bodies of water on Earth. Water temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 80s across much of the area, more than enough to feed Ida and allow further intensification. Another component you may not have heard of is the Gulf Loop Current. The loop current runs across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is a deep stream of warm water that lifts north out of the Yucatan, makes a loop in the Gulf, and turns southeast towards the Florida Straits.



The deep, warm water allows hurricanes to intensify rapidly, and many hurricanes tap into the loop current as they become major hurricanes. The most memorable storm to hit the loop current was Katrina in 2005. The deep, warm water allowed the cyclone to become a category 5 major hurricane before slamming the Mississippi coast as a category 3. Ida will likely tap into the warm Gulf waters and the loop current and become a major hurricane.

[jztemple2]

[jztemple2]

No significant changes to the path or strengthening. Weather.com has a lot of nice graphics via the link below.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-08-27-hurricane-ida-map-tracker-spaghetti-models?cm_ven=hp-slot-2

[Daehawk]

Ida is an angry storm.

[Jaymon]

Back to an earlier post about batteries. We have Ryobi power tools at my house. I bought also the boombox that uses the ryobi battery, and it has USB out for charging phones. During our last power outage, we got about 3 full phone charges from one battery. Couple that with a car outlet charger for the power tool batteries, and we were good. Took about an hour of the car idling to fully charge one battery.

[jztemple2]

Latest update. As of 4pm CT, Ida is just coming ashore with 130mph winds, that's sustained winds. Winds just before landfall were 150mph. Some tweets of interest:







And be prepared to pay more for that gallon of gas:

Catastrophic damage likely at key oil industry hub

Ida’s eye scored a direct hit on Port Fourchon, a critical hub for the U.S. oil industry. According to the Port Fourchon website:

Over 250 companies utilize Port Fourchon as a base of operation.

In addition to its huge domestic hydrocarbon significance, Port Fourchon is land base for LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Port), which handles 10-15% of the nation’s domestic oil, 10-15% of the nation’s foreign oil, and is connected to 50% of US refining capacity. LOOP is the only US deep water port capable of offloading VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) and ULCCs (Ultra Large Crude Carriers).

Port Fourchon currently services over 90% of the Gulf of Mexico’s deep water oil production.

Overall, Port Fourchon plays a strategic role in furnishing this country with about 18% of its entire oil supply.

Over 400 large supply vessels traverse the port’s channels each day.

Approximately 15,000 people per month are flown to offshore locations supported by Port Fourchon.

Truck traffic studies have shown that up to 1,200 trucks per day travel in and out of Port Fourchon.

Over 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day are transported via pipelines through the port.

Ida is likely to cause catastrophic damage to the port, and leave it cut off from the rest of the state as a result of storm surge flooding of Highway 1. Potential serious oil spills in Port Fourchon are also a concern given its numerous tank farms.

And...

Expect devastating damage to key industrial corridor

As documented in our post yesterday, Ida is hitting one of the most critical areas of infrastructure in the U.S.: the industrial corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Ida is likely to cause tens of billions of dollars of damage to industry along the river. As of 11 a.m. EDT, Ida was predicted to reach the industrial corridor on Sunday evening while still a category 2 storm. As detailed in an article at nola.com, almost 600 sites with toxic chemicals lie in Hurricane Ida’s path along the industrial corridor. There is a high risk that Ida will cause multiple releases of toxic chemicals and oil into the environment.

Not only is the industrial corridor home to dozens of key petrochemical sites, and crisscrossed by important pipelines, it also has three of the 15 largest ports in America: the largest bulk cargo port in the world, the Port of South Louisiana, which lies along a 54-mile stretch of the Mississippi River; the nation’s largest export grain port, the Port of New Orleans; and the Port of Greater Baton Rouge, the nation’s 10th-largest port. These three ports handle 55-70% of all U.S. grain exports to the world, supplied by barges moving downriver.

Going upriver, Mississippi River barges transport petrochemicals, fertilizers, and raw materials essential for the functioning of U.S. industry and agriculture, making the Mississippi River the lifeblood of the American economy. If the ports of the Mississippi River are closed for an extended period of time, the entire U.S. economy suffers, with impacts to the global economy and world food supplies. World food prices, vulnerable to extreme weather shocks, in May of 2021 hit their highest levels since 2011. It is very likely that Ida will shut down navigation on the Lower Mississippi River for weeks, and it will take months for shipping traffic to fully recover.

The 2006 report “Case Study of the Transportation Sector’s Response to and Recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita” said that in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, the Port of New Orleans was closed for 15 days; the Port of South Louisiana, less damaged, was closed for five days. Barge traffic was severely impacted for many weeks, in part because the hurricane destroyed many U.S. Coast Guard’s navigation aids – the system of buoys, beacons, and lighthouses that facilitate safe navigation. The Coast Guard estimated that some 1,800 aids to navigation were missing, relocated, or destroyed because of Hurricane Katrina. More than 300 barges along the river were set adrift by flood surges and wind, sunk, or significantly damaged, posing further risks to navigation. Expect Ida to have similar impacts to navigation.

[jztemple2]

[Daehawk]

I think Id stop bothering to rebuild or live there.

[Daveman]

So it's looking like 3 fairly large tornadoes are passing through the Philadelphia area and up NJ. They just showed footage of one that passed a mile or two from me in Mullica Hill, NJ.

We were sheltered in the basement and didn't see or hear anything. If you're in the path (it's near Trenton now) get under cover.

[malchior]

I'm hanging out in the basement right now. It's just heavy rain and light wind right now. Still I can't remember the last time we got a foot of rain in a 2 week span. I'm starting on an ark soon.

[Daehawk]

Is it crowd funded? And can it go to space?

[malchior]

I should crowd fund it. I think people are ready for it.

On a more serious note my wife got cut off coming home for work and went to her parent's house and we think she just lost her car to a flash flood. Her folks basement is taking water right now as well. We have major, major flooding happening all over the region.

[Kraken]

We're getting heavy rain up here overnight, too, with a wind advisory and the potential for tornadoes and local flooding. This has been the most miserable summer I can remember.

[Unagi]

This has been the most miserable summer I can remember.

[Smoove_B]

The stuff I'm seeing online about central and south NJ right now is insane.



Stay safe fellow NJ OOers