Hurricane Season (and other significant weather events) 2021

[jztemple2]

Elsa is expected to return to Cat 1 strength just before landfall. Unfortunately it will be brushing by Tampa Bay where the counterclockwise rotation will be pushing storm surge up the bay.

[Isgrimnur]

That’s going to make the hockey game interesting.

[jztemple2]

That’s going to make the hockey game interesting.

The game is tomorrow evening I think so they should be OK.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

We’re planning to get hit in Charleston tomorrow. Current forecast mainly calls for lots of rain and semi-high winds (25 - 35 mph sustained). Doesn’t *seem* like it should be too bad. Still, I wonder if work will let out early…

[Isgrimnur]

I have successfully fled the state of Florida.

[Smoove_B]

There was a 15 minute storm that tore through my corner of NJ yesterday at 5:30pm, and 26 hours later, I'm back on the electrical grid.

I was about ready to go to a hotel as it's like a jungle in my house. Can't wait until it happens again next week.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Elsa didn't cause much damage here, but did prevent me from getting much sleep. My phone started blaring at me at 1:30 AM due to a tornado warning, so got to spend the next 30 minutes in my downstairs bathroom. Then, just as I was about to fall back asleep, we got another tornado warning ~3:00 AM. As far as I know, these were all just radar indicated and nothing touched down. We did get lots of rain, though, and more than a few streets in downtown Charleston are flooded, as is their wont. Still pretty windy here, but the worst has past.

[jztemple2]

There was a 15 minute storm that tore through my corner of NJ yesterday at 5:30pm, and 26 hours later, I'm back on the electrical grid.

I was about ready to go to a hotel as it's like a jungle in my house. Can't wait until it happens again next week.

We're about to get a line of thunderstorms roll through our area, just our typical summer afternoon occurrence; lightning, gusting winds, heavy rain. Happily having had almost yearly hurricanes since 2004 our area has weeded out the weaker power poles and connections, so rarely do we ever have more than a power glitch, which is what I have my UPS for . I've been trying to convince my wife to invest in one of those Tesla Power Walls but no luck so far .

[stessier]

I've been trying to convince my wife to invest in one of those Tesla Power Walls but no luck so far .

Unfortunately, they are now only selling Power Walls with a Solar Roof installation. They are no longer a stand alone product. There are other manufacturers out there, though, if you ever get her to give in.

[malchior]

There was a 15 minute storm that tore through my corner of NJ yesterday at 5:30pm, and 26 hours later, I'm back on the electrical grid.

I was about ready to go to a hotel as it's like a jungle in my house. Can't wait until it happens again next week.

My BIL is still out in the Bedminster area. JCP&L is the totally a first rate utility.

Elsa is coming through tomorrow. Hopefully it'll stay further south but I'm dangerously close to the "eye path". I already started bringing stuff in.

[Octavious]

Seems like my neck of the woods should be fine. We got lucky and I didn't lose power the other day.

[YellowKing]

We had scheduled Habitat for Humanity to come out and pick up some old furniture this morning, and I figured they'd cancel due to the nasty rain and wind moving through. So we got caught scrambling when they showed up early. Those guys were completely unfazed, loading up a couple of dressers, some end tables, and an entertainment center in pouring rain and 20-30mph gusts. I was impressed.

[Holman]

We had scheduled Habitat for Humanity to come out and pick up some old furniture this morning, and I figured they'd cancel due to the nasty rain and wind moving through. So we got caught scrambling when they showed up early. Those guys were completely unfazed, loading up a couple of dressers, some end tables, and an entertainment center in pouring rain and 20-30mph gusts. I was impressed.

Jimmy Carter has seen it all, man.

[Kraken]

The remnants will blow through the Boston area overnight and through most of tomorrow. We could get 2-3" of rain and 40-60 mph wind gusts. The ground is already saturated, and my cellar floor seeped a little after a heavy thunderstorm last night, indicating that the water table is up to the level of our foundation already. I'm hoping we don't get a major flood, but half-expecting one. We've had two over the past 30 years and conditions are right for a third.

[hitbyambulance]

please send your rain over this way to drought-land

[Holman]

In Philadelphia we're on the very edge of Elsa's system. We've gotten some rain and will get more later, but it won't feel like a major storm.

Around 4:00 I saw the sky darkening and decided to take the dog for a walk before the rain came in. At the farthest point in our path, the clouds suddenly opened up and we were drenched in seconds. With the wind (enough to knock over porch chairs) and the pouring rain, we were absolutely soaked to the bone.

When we finally got home, I toweled off the dog and looked out to see the rain stop as immediately as it started. The sun even came out.

[Kraken]

please send your rain over this way to drought-land

Hah, we've been in a moderate drought for the past three years, running a deficit of around 10" of rain annually, and this year started out in the same way. That turned around last month, and now we're already having a wetter-than-normal year even before Elsa sweeps through tonight. Every day for the next week has at least a 35% chance of more rain.

At least the garden is digging it. I'm looking forward to some extra big, juicy tomatoes...although maybe not a lot of them, as the bees have been taking a lot of time off.

[Alefroth]

Is lethal heat a public health issue?

The death toll in the West is 800 now and expected to go higher.

[jztemple2]

Current Five Day Outlook Image is updated by NHC every few hours.

That disturbance off the east coast of Florida is starting to look more serious:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of low pressure located off of the southeastern United States coastline continues to produce a large region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for additional development and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream, just offshore of the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Jeff V]

Is lethal heat a public health issue?

The death toll in the West is 800 now and expected to go higher.

It is. During one nasty heatwave in the 90's more than 900 died in the Chicago area. Hospitals had no room for all of the corpses and were using refrigerated trucks to store them.

Years later, I was on a committee at a hospital pondering an increasing problem corpses that do not fit into the morgue coolers. I suggested getting a reefer, but was shot down by the director responsible for corpse storage. I believe her response was, "No, Jeff, we are not going to put them in trucks."

I don't recall any other solution being offered.

[jztemple2]

Years later, I was on a committee at a hospital pondering an increasing problem corpses that do not fit into the morgue coolers. I suggested getting a reefer, but was shot down by the director responsible for corpse storage. I believe her response was, "No, Jeff, we are not going to put them in trucks."

I can't imagine why that wouldn't be a good temporary solution. Was any alternative solution ever adopted?

[Jeff V]

I can't imagine why that wouldn't be a good temporary solution. Was any alternative solution ever adopted?

That's the thing, I'm not aware of any other proposals, much less solutions. The lady in charge of corpse storage was also the purchasing director for the hospital. Maybe they eventually bought some super-sized coolers, but not while I was there.

[jztemple2]

As we come to the end of July, The hurricane season typically becomes more active in August

As we flip the calendar from July to August, the tropical Atlantic historically becomes more active. One named storm developed, Elsa, that became a weak hurricane. Elsa went on to impact Florida and much of the East Coast of the United States.



Elsa became post-tropical on July 9, and since then, no tropical depression or named storm has formed in the Atlantic Basin. That is likely to change in the coming weeks. The reason? August is historically the month the tropical Atlantic begins kicking into high gear. Sea surface temperatures continue to climb across the Atlantic, and wind shear in some areas begins to decrease. This results in August seeing the biggest increase in tropical activity of the entire hurricane season. A large part of the increase is a key area in the Atlantic that becomes more hospitable to tropical systems. This area called the Main Development Region, or MDR, sits in the open Atlantic between the Caribbean and the western coast of Africa.



This region is the MDR because it accounts for 60% of all named storms that form in the Atlantic. It also accounts for a whopping 85% of all hurricanes that form. The region allows weak tropical waves off the coast of Africa to power up into tropical storms and hurricanes as they move westward. This year, there are no indications that an uptick in activity is imminent in the first few days of August. However, some long-range computer models indicate a possible uptick in activity as we head into mid-August, which is historically when things get very active. While we have already had five named storms, more named storms will be likely in the coming weeks, with almost all forecasters predicting an above-average hurricane season.



While August is an active month, it's not the most active. The peak of hurricane season is September 10, and the season rolls on until November 30. So enjoy the quiet weather in the tropics now, as things will likely change in the coming weeks.

[jztemple2]

NOAA has updated it's hurricane season outlook, adding to the numbers. The Prediction categories include storms that have already happened.

[jztemple2]

deleted here, moved to bottom of thread to be more relevant.

[naednek]

I only see red and yellow...

[coopasonic]

I only see red and yellow...

It's a live image. One of the oranges powered up and the other weakened, apparently.

[jztemple2]

I only see red and yellow...

It's a live image. One of the oranges powered up and the other weakened, apparently.

Yup, I thought a live feed would be more useful. I'll edit out the out of date text.

[jztemple2]

Deleted, updated graphics at bottom of thread.

[Isgrimnur]

[jztemple2]

Deleted as being out of date. See below for latest.

[jztemple2]

And the latest on Fred... the image below is updated automatically.

[Isgrimnur]

But the thread doesn't bump when it does.

[jztemple2]

But the thread doesn't bump when it does.

Took me a moment to think what that meant...

Feel free to bump as needed. I'll repost the images to new messages if there are significant updates. That new disturbance is interesting since it looks to follow the same path as Fred did early on. I wonder if the water stirred up and cooled by Fred will inhibit this newer storm.

[Isgrimnur]

[jztemple2]

deleted due to being out of date

[jztemple2]

Fred is gone, Grace is heading to Mexico and now Henri looks to be aiming at Newport, Rhode Island.

Current Five Day Outlook Image is updated by NHC every few hours.


Henri Five Day Forecast Image is updated by NHC every few hours.

[Kraken]

We're under a hurricane watch for Sunday, but Henri's track is still too uncertain to know if we should be worried. Best guess as of this morning says it will brush the Cape and islands and Boston won't see much action, if any.

[telcta]

It’s looking more like we’re going to be dead center of this hurricane in Connecticut. I’m quite certain we’re going to lose power.

I told my wife I’m going to preemptively begin eating all the perishables Saturday.

[Kraken]

Oh yeah, you're in the bullseye. You need to buy batteries if you can find your flashlight, or at least dig out those patchouli candles.

If forecasts hold this will be the first direct hit on New England since Bob 30 years ago. I remember Bob well. I was visiting Wife in Manhattan, where she lived for a year to attend Columbia while I stayed in Albany. The facade of the building across the street crumbled, which was a hold-me moment. Driving back to Boston I saw apocalyptic devastation everywhere, if the apocalypse were just a major inconvenience.

Henri probably won't be another Bob where I live, but CT and RI are going to have a bad day.