Too early to think about 2022?

[Alefroth]

Imagine how Oz voters would respond if he said that about anything other than abortion. Education for example.

[YellowKing]

At that level, I don't care what's in your heart, or how great your policies may be, if you can't effectively deliver a message to a public audience, it has all kinds of negative ramifications.

Unless you're Trump or any other GOP candidate.

[Holman]

I still think PA will go for Shapiro and Fetterman. Debates matter only for the soundbites, and Oz's "Woman, doctor, and local political officials" is just devastating.

Fetterman has always been up over Oz, and even though the race has tightened as Republicans come home, that's not enough to make a difference. It's very rare for a purple-state senate candidate to win the election when they've been underwater for a year.

[Holman]

A second Herschel Walker girlfriend has come forward with a claim that he paid for her abortion.

[malchior]

I'm afraid Fetterman is in trouble. As bad as Oz is, I think Fetterman is going to lose due to the after effects of his stroke. He wasn't the most polished speaker before the stroke, but he's distractingly bad now. And people are superficial and stupid and are probably going to vote for Oz as a result.

If Fetterman doesn't win in a landslide after hearing Oz suggest that an abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local political leaders then I don't even know what to say anymore. I get that awful people are going to vote for Oz no matter what, but that sentence alone should be his point of no return.

That's the thing though. There is no chance Oz would lose by a landslide. And I actually expect with all the negative coverage about Fetterman's stroke that Oz is going to win. If he loses this will just be bad luck because he almost certainly wins in good health.

[malchior]

Sorry to bring this up again but I was just reading a pretty silly story about the "crime wave in San Francisco" and a store closing in The Atlantic. It has me seriously scratching my head. The owner claims his store was robbed fifty or a hundred times (quite the range there chief!) and has no idea what the value of goods stolen is. What? How? This is what I mean when I feel like a lot of talk about this stuff appears political to me and isn't all that credible to me.

I have a lot of questions after I read this. In fact I shot off a 'letter' to their editorial inbox - because I would love to get a response about whether actually they validated any of his claims. It appears they reached out to SFPD who commented they were aware of incidents. Hardly confirmation about the scope here. I personally would have liked some confirmation if the police were aware of nearly daily gangs of people robbing stores in broad daylight. I also asked if they talked to any of his staff to validate the claims he makes in this story. That feels like it'd be the responsible thing to do. The story at least had some context up top about the fact that the data is really muddy but then plodded on with the interview that really left a lot of basic questions unanswered.

Again not trying to stir up things but when I read stuff like this it reinforces to me that a lot of this is driven by muddy data, potentially irresponsible reporting, and this story reads almost like fan fiction about what a high crime area looks like. You can't walk into a Duane Reade in relatively low-crime mid-town Manhattan and not see a very visible security person. The same thing in Newark, NJ where they'll loiter at or outside the doors to discourage activity. Yet the reporter didn't ask the obvious question? "You never thought about hiring some security?" after the 50 or 100 gang invasions? I mean come on. Could you provide us a video of one of these? Anything at all to back this up? It really feels like it fits the meme so it's published.

Before I posted here, I looked around trying to find out anything I could about this guy because I smell a rat. He originally posted this on LinkedIn and the responses are largely a bunch of people talking about how liberals don't care about crime and too busy protecting illegal immigrants. That's partially why my bullshit meter keeps pegging when I see stories like this. Especially when you actually analyze the content - this story has major gaps in it. It's also essentially sole sourced from a single person who has potential financial and political motives to exaggerate. On top, Republicans have been banging the drum on this issue non-stop this whole year. I have extreme low confidence that this is not exaggerated/politicized.

Nyce: How much merchandise did you all end up having stolen?

Smith: I don’t know the exact number off the top of my head. I can tell you that the theft has happened dozens and dozens and dozens of times. We’ve been open for a year, and, I mean, this is, like, multiple times a week.

Nyce: Is that all mass-grabbing of merchandise?

Smith: Yeah, it’s not shoplifting. Shoplifting would be different.

Nyce: It’s happening dozens of times?

Smith: Oh, yeah. We’ve lost track, but it’s multiple times a week for a year. You just do the math and it’s like, I don’t know, 50 times, 100 times.

Nyce: What was the police’s role in all of this?

Smith: Well, we’ve struggled to get the attention of the police, and they just seem to not have a lot of interest in solving the problem. To be fair, they have a hard job. And I don’t know all the complexities as to why this is such a big problem that doesn’t seem to get resolved.

I do know that a month or so ago they announced that they were going to be doing fewer street patrols and have a smaller presence on Hayes Street, which just was shocking because the amount of crime that was happening was just mind-blowing and all the retailers were kind of up in arms, saying, “Hey, we need help.” And just nothing would change. That said, this week, we’re having some meaningful conversations, but I think what we need is not so much conversations. We just need action.

...

Nyce: Why did you decide to post on LinkedIn about this? You could’ve just closed the store and quietly retreated.

Smith: There are a couple of reasons. I will say it’s uncomfortable for me. People love to criticize, and it’s not fun to have that experience. At the same time, I feel like business leaders have a responsibility to not just celebrate their wins but to talk about disappointments, discouraging moments, things that didn’t go well. And I thought, this is one of those times. Our brand is really built around authenticity.

[Kurth]

I'm afraid Fetterman is in trouble. As bad as Oz is, I think Fetterman is going to lose due to the after effects of his stroke. He wasn't the most polished speaker before the stroke, but he's distractingly bad now. And people are superficial and stupid and are probably going to vote for Oz as a result.

If Fetterman doesn't win in a landslide after hearing Oz suggest that an abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local political leaders then I don't even know what to say anymore. I get that awful people are going to vote for Oz no matter what, but that sentence alone should be his point of no return.

Look, Oz is a putz. And a phony. And a huckster. And a carpet bagger.

But Oz Oz never suggested "that an abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local political leaders." That's an absurdity, and Oz didn't say it:

During Tuesday evening’s senatorial debate between Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz, the latter candidate allegedly said something shocking and enraging about abortion access, which was then allegedly captured in a tweet that got a lot of attention:

“Oz says his abortion position: should be between ‘a woman, her doctor, and local political leaders,’ ” wrote a Democratic opposition researcher.

John Fetterman, who is recovering from a stroke, had been the candidate for whom viewers were on gaffe alert. But to read this tweet — which has been reposted thousands of times — it seemed that Oz, a smooth television personality, had instead won the headline for most alarming statement.

Only, he didn’t say it — not quite, not exactly. I went back and re-watched the clip. After being asked whether he would support a nationwide abortion ban, here’s what Oz said (emphasis mine): “There should not be involvement from the federal government in how states decide their abortion decisions. As a physician, I’ve been in the room when there’s some difficult conversations happening. I don’t want the federal government involved with that at all. I want women, doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that’s always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves.”

Oz was clearly arguing that women, doctors and local political leaders should all have a say when deciding abortion policy. It was a ham-fisted states rights argument against national abortion policy. I disagree 100% with his position, but that's actually far from crazy, regardless of what misleading social media and punchy attack ads might try to lead people to believe.

But in today's climate, who gives a shit, right? It makes people feel outraged, and in the end, we're all about the feels now, not the facts.

[Kurth]

Sorry to bring this up again but I was just reading a pretty silly story about the "crime wave in San Francisco" and a store closing in The Atlantic. It has me seriously scratching my head. The owner claims his store was robbed fifty or a hundred times (quite the range there chief!) and has no idea what the value of goods stolen is. What? How? This is what I mean when I feel like a lot of talk about this stuff appears political to me and isn't all that credible to me.

I have a lot of questions after I read this. In fact I shot off a 'letter' to their editorial inbox - because I would love to get a response about whether actually they validated any of his claims. It appears they reached out to SFPD who commented they were aware of incidents. Hardly confirmation about the scope here. I personally would have liked some confirmation if the police were aware of nearly daily gangs of people robbing stores in broad daylight. I also asked if they talked to any of his staff to validate the claims he makes in this story. That feels like it'd be the responsible thing to do. The story at least had some context up top about the fact that the data is really muddy but then plodded on with the interview that really left a lot of basic questions unanswered.

Again not trying to stir up things but when I read stuff like this it reinforces to me that a lot of this is driven by muddy data, potentially irresponsible reporting, and this story reads almost like fan fiction about what a high crime area looks like. You can't walk into a Duane Reade in relatively low-crime mid-town Manhattan and not see a very visible security person. The same thing in Newark, NJ where they'll loiter at or outside the doors to discourage activity. Yet the reporter didn't ask the obvious question? "You never thought about hiring some security?" after the 50 or 100 gang invasions? I mean come on. Could you provide us a video of one of these? Anything at all to back this up? It really feels like it fits the meme so it's published.

Before I posted here, I looked around trying to find out anything I could about this guy because I smell a rat. He originally posted this on LinkedIn and the responses are largely a bunch of people talking about how liberals don't care about crime and too busy protecting illegal immigrants. That's partially why my bullshit meter keeps pegging when I see stories like this. Especially when you actually analyze the content - this story has major gaps in it. It's also essentially sole sourced from a single person who has potential financial and political motives to exaggerate. On top, Republicans have been banging the drum on this issue non-stop this whole year. I have extreme low confidence that this is not exaggerated/politicized.

Nyce: How much merchandise did you all end up having stolen?

Smith: I don’t know the exact number off the top of my head. I can tell you that the theft has happened dozens and dozens and dozens of times. We’ve been open for a year, and, I mean, this is, like, multiple times a week.

Nyce: Is that all mass-grabbing of merchandise?

Smith: Yeah, it’s not shoplifting. Shoplifting would be different.

Nyce: It’s happening dozens of times?

Smith: Oh, yeah. We’ve lost track, but it’s multiple times a week for a year. You just do the math and it’s like, I don’t know, 50 times, 100 times.

Nyce: What was the police’s role in all of this?

Smith: Well, we’ve struggled to get the attention of the police, and they just seem to not have a lot of interest in solving the problem. To be fair, they have a hard job. And I don’t know all the complexities as to why this is such a big problem that doesn’t seem to get resolved.

I do know that a month or so ago they announced that they were going to be doing fewer street patrols and have a smaller presence on Hayes Street, which just was shocking because the amount of crime that was happening was just mind-blowing and all the retailers were kind of up in arms, saying, “Hey, we need help.” And just nothing would change. That said, this week, we’re having some meaningful conversations, but I think what we need is not so much conversations. We just need action.

...

Nyce: Why did you decide to post on LinkedIn about this? You could’ve just closed the store and quietly retreated.

Smith: There are a couple of reasons. I will say it’s uncomfortable for me. People love to criticize, and it’s not fun to have that experience. At the same time, I feel like business leaders have a responsibility to not just celebrate their wins but to talk about disappointments, discouraging moments, things that didn’t go well. And I thought, this is one of those times. Our brand is really built around authenticity.

malchior, I have no way to validate that guy's story, but I will tell you that grab-and-gos are a very real thing retailers in Portland are dealing with. People walk in, grab armloads of merchandise, and just walk out of the stores. Multiple times a day. This is not based on second hand reporting. I've watched surveillance footage. It's not an exaggeration.

It may seem unreal that there would be no security response, but companies are often caught between a rock and a hard place. Empowering their employees or private security vendors to go after shoplifters is a risky move that can place those employees in harms way and potentially open a company up to legal liability, either from an injured employee, an injured shoplifter, or an innocent customer accused of being a shoplifter.

Often, companies would rather have their employees act as reliable observers and report instances of theft to the police. The problem is when the police simply ignore those reports and the district attorneys don't prosecute. The police are burnt out. The DA's office is in crisis. It's a shit show:

The Multnomah County District Attorney's Office is suffering an "unprecedented" loss of experienced prosecutors as gun crimes are on pace to break last year's record high.

2022 is on track to surpass the previous record for gun violence cases. Out of the 20 homicides already recorded this year, Lovell said all but one were from gunshots. With that, gun violence referrals are reportedly up more than 450%.

The news conference came after January 2022 saw an uptick in reported shootings in Portland compared to January 2021.

There were 107 shootings recorded in January 2022 and 104 in January 2021, a nearly 3% increase. Portland Police Bureau said 26 people were injured as a result of shootings in the first month of 2022 compared to 27 in January 2021.

With the significant increase in violent crimes, property crimes are often ignored by our criminal justice system as we try to triage resources. This all leaves private companies in an impossible position. They're in the business of selling shit to people. Not enforcing the law.

[malchior]

malchior, I have no way to validate that guy's story, but I will tell you that grab-and-gos are a very real thing retailers in Portland are dealing with. People walk in, grab armloads of merchandise, and just walk out of the stores. Multiple times a day. This is not based on second hand reporting. I've watched surveillance footage. It's not an exaggeration.

Oh I'm sure it happens. I'm just questioning it happening 50 or 100 times in a year and he has the staff tinkering with different door locking techniques?! It sounds made up especially when he throws around dumb big number ranges like that. He is supposed to be the CEO of this company dealing with a serious issue and he is talking in wild generalities? It severely undermines his credibility in my mind. That didn't stop Joe Scarborough, the SF Chronicle, and the Atlantic spraying this story out nationally. That's pretty irresponsible.

It may seem unreal that there would be no security response, but companies are often caught between a rock and a hard place. Empowering their employees or private security vendors to go after shoplifters is a risky move that can place those employees in harms way and potentially open a company up to legal liability, either from an injured employee, an injured shoplifter, or an innocent customer accused of being a shoplifter.

Sure but again it's a regular practice here. Laws vary in states/cities and all that for sure. But again my bullshit meter pegs off the scale when he claims this scale, the idea that the police are completely ignoring it, and he is the sole source of this story. My co-worker lives in downtown San Francisco, not too far from the area, and he thinks it is mostly bullshit. That's however just his one man opinion. He did tip me off to some Tweets where people went outside that store and shot video of the area. There wasn't a homeless person in sight (which isn't all that meaningful since who knows when that person filmed it and what footage they chose to share) but the neighborhood is upscale. There were people walking around with their children and it looked relatively clean. That doesn't mean there weren't gangs of people running in the store 2 or 3 times a week and carrying out armloads of stuff but it also wasn't the downtrodden hellhole he describes in the Atlantic piece. Extra points for him describing the environment that way but also admitting he never visited the location.

It again goes to the idea that I suspect people - with various motives - overstate how bad crime is where there aren't hard facts. They can get away with it because the press *wants to print that story*. They'll print it whether it is true or not or where they can play in the gray. And it may very well influence people to think problems are worse than they are. That's not great when it has the sort of impact these type of stories have on the community at large.

As to the Portland stuff - I was avoiding it on purpose just to make a point that again this isn't just a Portland story. This is something the media is doing across the country. The same language. The same ideas. The same poorly sourced claims without proper vetting. I simply don't trust it because often hard data tells a different story. Even when it's messy and not always normalized.

We still are seeing a wholesale trend in most places (including Portland). We saw crime drop during early lockdowns. We saw a heavy spike in violent crime that summer and it continued through early 2022 and has been reverting to the mean over 2022. That is again a pattern we see all over the place. It'll probably take years to figure out the why but I did find an article (I'll drop it in below) where someone unpacks this story in Portland context.

Often, companies would rather have their employees act as reliable observers and report instances of theft to the police. The problem is when the police simply ignore those reports and the district attorneys don't prosecute. The police are burnt out. The DA's office is in crisis. It's a shit show

FWIW it does seem like there was quite a bump (again unpacked a bit below). The quote below seems particularly relevant to me from the article. There were a lot of governmental layoffs in 2020. I'd be curious if this was the case because the comment sure makes it sound like they had a serious staffing/funding issue even without an increase in cases. It's certaintly sounds like they were underfunded by half and were probably stressed to begin with. That very much complicates the analysis IMO.

Snowden also said that several of the recent departures in her office were senior-level prosecutors, and that her office is reaching out to DA's offices in other counties to fill staffing vacancies.

"There are other jurisdictions that are the size of Portland that have twice as many prosecutors as our office does, and I think what's happened is just a confluence of factors that have contributed to the situation that we're in now." Snowden said.

It's also interesting that someone who looked at historical trends - and relatively hard data at that - is saying that the current period shows elevated crime but it's not too far from historical. Also interesting that Portland has been well higher than the average city back through the 1960s. It's also interesting that when I looked at the UCR data a little while ago (only through 2021 so far) it was "only" homicides that spiked. The property crime rate (at least according to the FBI) is roughly level since the 80s in absolute numbers - and population has roughly doubled. So the rate dropped significantly over time. It went up a little but nothing way out of the ordinary compared to say even 2016. The crime reports since the turn of the century have been flat despite population growth. One could argue overall it might be *safer* but hard to tell with all the present abnormality.

Anyway, this article is exactly what I'm getting at. This is why I think hard data is so important because the article you post has scary sounding numbers such as 450% increases in referrals. And there is no context what most of those numbers mean vis a vis pre-pandemic, historical crime figures, or how to compare the level to today. Anyway the boil down again comes to the idea that people in the same community seem to be seeing it differently. I'm not saying who is right but it's not as clear cut and a slam dunk as it might seem to some.

[Formix]

Sorry to bring this up again but I was just reading a pretty silly story about the "crime wave in San Francisco" and a store closing in The Atlantic. It has me seriously scratching my head. The owner claims his store was robbed fifty or a hundred times (quite the range there chief!) and has no idea what the value of goods stolen is. What? How? This is what I mean when I feel like a lot of talk about this stuff appears political to me and isn't all that credible to me.

The mistake you're making is thinking that the news is anything other than entertainment. And I'm not talking faux news, I mean all of them. The way the news works is the same as any other show, it lives off advertising. What draws viewers? Balanced, boring Walter Cronkite, or hysterical "your kids are going to die if you don't watch our playground expose!" Reporters are hoping for that viral story to take them to the next bigger market, and that's all. Who has the time to follow up, or investigate? Your producer wants titillating content now!

[Smoove_B]

He didn't say it exactly, but he said it mostly - and that's the kinda gotcha reporting we like.

But in today's climate, who gives a shit, right? It makes people feel outraged, and in the end, we're all about the feels now, not the facts.

As I told Drazzil before he disappeared over the horizon, "Angry is good. Angry gets shit done."

[malchior]

Sorry to bring this up again but I was just reading a pretty silly story about the "crime wave in San Francisco" and a store closing in The Atlantic. It has me seriously scratching my head. The owner claims his store was robbed fifty or a hundred times (quite the range there chief!) and has no idea what the value of goods stolen is. What? How? This is what I mean when I feel like a lot of talk about this stuff appears political to me and isn't all that credible to me.

The mistake you're making is thinking that the news is anything other than entertainment. And I'm not talking faux news, I mean all of them. The way the news works is the same as any other show, it lives off advertising. What draws viewers? Balanced, boring Walter Cronkite, or hysterical "your kids are going to die if you don't watch our playground expose!" Reporters are hoping for that viral story to take them to the next bigger market, and that's all. Who has the time to follow up, or investigate? Your producer wants titillating content now!

Trust me I get it but some outlets have been better than others. The Atlantic has generally published a good wide range politically of well-sourced stories without chasing the far-right scary tales. This one just kind of surprised me because this is IMO much more sensationalized without good grounding than their usual story. If they had run down some of these things I would have been grateful to see some truth in the archetype. But as yet all we keep getting are stories about progressive DAs going light on crime and Democrats running cities into the ground.

And the worst part is it doesn't read that way. It is written to appeal to the type of person who thinks it's balanced. It really is beginning to bother me how awash we are in junk information right now.

[stessier]

And voted! I don't think my vote will make any difference. About half the races were unopposed. The one I hope mattered was for School Board - the two choices were listed as non-partisan but they were very, very different. Hopefully people do a little research before voting.

[hepcat]

malchior, I have no way to validate that guy's story, but I will tell you that grab-and-gos are a very real thing retailers in Portland are dealing with. People walk in, grab armloads of merchandise, and just walk out of the stores. Multiple times a day. This is not based on second hand reporting. I've watched surveillance footage. It's not an exaggeration.

We had a big issue with grab and dashes in stores here in Chicago a while back. It's not an isolated thing. However, when viewed against the backdrop of crime over time, it wasn't indicative of a break down of society. It was a new thing criminals did for a while. Then stores wised up, started hiring more security and it isn't in the news now as much. Not saying that was what you're alluding to, but in keeping with malchior's assertion that some of this stuff is drummed up by the media to make us think the sky is falling.

[Isgrimnur]

But in today's climate, who gives a shit, right? It makes people feel outraged, and in the end, we're all about the feels now, not the facts.

As I told Drazzil before he disappeared over the horizon, "Angry is good. Angry gets shit done."

This guy gets it

[Kurth]

He didn't say it exactly, but he said it mostly - and that's the kinda gotcha reporting we like.

But in today's climate, who gives a shit, right? It makes people feel outraged, and in the end, we're all about the feels now, not the facts.

As I told Drazzil before he disappeared over the horizon, "Angry is good. Angry gets shit done."

Drazzil. Angry. Good. I’m not buying that.

[Kraken]

He didn't say it exactly, but he said it mostly - and that's the kinda gotcha reporting we like.

But in today's climate, who gives a shit, right? It makes people feel outraged, and in the end, we're all about the feels now, not the facts.

As I told Drazzil before he disappeared over the horizon, "Angry is good. Angry gets shit done."

Drazzil. Angry. Good. I’m not buying that.

Let's see what happens if we say "Drazzil" three times.

[Kurth]

He didn't say it exactly, but he said it mostly - and that's the kinda gotcha reporting we like.

But in today's climate, who gives a shit, right? It makes people feel outraged, and in the end, we're all about the feels now, not the facts.

As I told Drazzil before he disappeared over the horizon, "Angry is good. Angry gets shit done."

Drazzil. Angry. Good. I’m not buying that.

Let's see what happens if we say "Drazzil" three times.

Hard pass.

[Jaymann]

Why is it always three times? If you say it a fourth time does it negate the prior three?

[Smoove_B]

Why is it always three times? If you say it a fourth time does it negate the prior three?

[Unagi]

I think it's taken as a tip.

[Unagi]

Why is it always three times? If you say it a fourth time does it negate the prior three?

[Kurth]

Anyway, this article is exactly what I'm getting at. This is why I think hard data is so important because the article you post has scary sounding numbers such as 450% increases in referrals. And there is no context what most of those numbers mean vis a vis pre-pandemic, historical crime figures, or how to compare the level to today. Anyway the boil down again comes to the idea that people in the same community seem to be seeing it differently. I'm not saying who is right but it's not as clear cut and a slam dunk as it might seem to some.

I read the piece from the Atlantic re the San Francisco store. That CEO doesn’t come off as “a rat” to me at all. He’s not drilled—down on the details, but it doesn’t mean the issue is fabricated or that he’s in it to back a political agenda; also, for what it’s worth, I think the guy leans liberal, if anything.

You seem to be really skeptical that these grab-and-gos are a thing, or at least, one happening at the scale to deserve mention. I don’t know what to tell you. I’m not speaking to other places because I’d just be reporting second-hand stuff. But as far as what my company has experienced in Portland, the scale and scope of this issue is off the charts. I know this isn’t going to satisfy the desire for hard data, but this recent (18 hours ago) local news piece from KGW is pretty on point: We witnessed shoplifting at Nike, Home Depot and Target, and nobody stopped it.

You boil it down to, “well, people in the same community seem to be seeing it differently.” Outside of a couple quick posts by Exodor that are short on detail, I’m not sure where you are getting that.

Put another way, in the face of a deluge of stories — admittedly ranging from the reasonable to the sensational — where are there any reports, stories, opinion pieces, studies, etc. that suggest that crime and homelessness are not at a crisis level in Portland?

[malchior]

You boil it down to, “well, people in the same community seem to be seeing it differently.” Outside of a couple quick posts by Exodor that are short on detail, I’m not sure where you are getting that.

Man I don't know how many times and ways I have to say and show that Exodor's comments aren't the basis for my views. You are clearly not receiving what I'm saying so I'll leave it well and done.

[Kurth]

I'll say I didn't talk about it -- since I don't feel it is too relevant -- but I did visit the city late last year. That was akin to dipping my toe in the water. I hardly left the vicinity of the University of Portland. I also have friends who bounce between Portland and Seattle. They have a very different outlook - though they are concerned about the uptick in property crime. That's partly why I am and will remain skeptical.

I went back and looked through all your relevant posts here. Sorry if I missed something, but the above is the only thing I could find where you -- kind of -- provide support for the notion that "people from the same community seem to be seeing it differently." From my perspective, that's underwhelming support for your skepticism.

I'm beating a dead horse at this point and will stop hijacking this thread (apologies for that).

[Jaymann]

[LordMortis]

[Holman]

WHY CAN'T DEMOCRATS DO THIS 24/7??

[malchior]

Yikes

[Holman]

And just to make it clear, Mastriano is an adherent of the Evangelical notion that Jewish control of Jerusalem is a prerequisite for Christ's return and the end of the world (at which point unconverted Jews go to burn in Hell).

[Kraken]

Obama is (esp. among Blacks) the most popular Dem in the US today. It's a shame he's reluctant to go on the stump. His mission is to drive Black turnout but it's questionable how valuable that will be since he's still a big bogeyman for the right.

Notice how much George Bush isn't supporting the GOP? His Republican Party is dead and gone, and its successors want no part of him. It doesn't help that he was the worst modern president before 45 took that crown.

[Carpet_pissr]

Obama is (esp. among Blacks) the most popular Dem in the US today. It's a shame he's reluctant to go on the stump. His mission is to drive Black turnout but it's questionable how valuable that will be since he's still a big bogeyman for the right.

Notice how much George Bush isn't supporting the GOP? His Republican Party is dead and gone, and its successors want no part of him. It doesn't help that he was the worst modern president before 45 took that crown.

He also seems to be in firmly in the "painting pretty little trees and happy little clouds" zone (likely as some kind of mental /psyche therapy to be able to deal with the weight of his past actions).

[Jaymann]

Has anyone else seen the fear mongering ads showing an evil Biden starting WW3 over Ukraine? Reminiscent of the LBJ "Daisy" ads against Goldwater. JFC, Biden isn't even running for anything.

[stessier]

Has anyone else seen the fear mongering ads showing an evil Biden starting WW3 over Ukraine? Reminiscent of the LBJ "Daisy" ads against Goldwater. JFC, Biden isn't even running for anything.

If the ads here in SC are to be believed, he and Pelosi are running for Senator, Representative, Governor (seriously, the entire ad for our governor is talking about how he won't let Biden do anything in our state), Attorney General and I think Parks & Rec Director.

[Carpet_pissr]

The Dark Biden marketing campaign was very successful. But hardly needed.

Magats went from hating him and his ilk, to...11?

[malchior]

Has anyone else seen the fear mongering ads showing an evil Biden starting WW3 over Ukraine? Reminiscent of the LBJ "Daisy" ads against Goldwater. JFC, Biden isn't even running for anything.

Yes. The GOP -- sorry a conservative action group tied to former Trump officials - "Citizens for Sanity" -- is bombarding the World Series with a targeted disinformation campaign that would make the Willie Horton ad blush that includes the Ukraine/WW3 imagery.

A disturbing part is it is funded by dark money. We don't even know who is paying for this propaganda being blasted out to the nation. It could be foreign actors for all we know.

Edit: More from The Athletic

One television industry source who has seen the spot expected to air Friday night said the ad running in Game 1 is closer to a political ad that would run during a tense election season and not as extreme as the one that ran previously during baseball’s postseason. As a general rule, political ads that run within sporting events during election cycles have to be cleared by a standards and practices department either at the corporate level for national ads, or locally in-market. For instance, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported on Friday that a top Democratic political group will run an ad during Game 1 in the Philadelphia market on Philly’s Fox29, highlighting Mehmet Oz’s comments on abortion rights. Sports fans can expect to be inundated with political ads through Election Day.

“Networks make the decision on what political ads to run,” said an MLB spokesperson on Friday. “MLB does not believe it should be in the role of censoring political advertising.”

Citizens for Sanity says on its website that its mission is to “return common sense to America, to highlight the importance of logic and reason, and to defeat ‘wokeism’ and anti-critical thinking ideologies.” Per OpenSecrets and The Los Angeles Times, Citizens for Sanity is associated with the America First Legal Foundation, which is led by Stephen Miller, who served as a senior advisor for policy and White House director of speechwriting for former President Donald Trump.

[malchior]

(Moved this from the R&P Pictures thread) - but the Oz post there caught my eye. It had a chyron about poll results showing Oz ahead. I read a piece over the weekend that right-wing pollsters like Rasmussen have been flooding polls into the space. The thought is they might be trying to manipulate the poll aggregators like 538. They almost certainly moved the Real Clear Politics one drastically. If you look at any of those sites you'll see that 60-70% of the recent poll dumps are from them. The bottom line is that independent, quality polls have Fetterman ahead by 4-5 points. It is just another part of a misinformation campaign.

In any case, I forgot where I read it but here is someone else laying out the case with numbers.

[YellowKing]

We were talking to our neighbor today. Great guy, hated Trump. Hates anti-vaxx crap pushed by the right, pro-women's rights, yada yada yada.

However, he started going on about how he waited in line over an hour today in early voting to make sure he voted a straight Republican ticket. Because...gas prices.

It really just bummed out my whole evening. I mean we're well and truly fucked at this point. People aren't listening, they don't care. At some point soon we're literally going to be living the Handmaid's Tale while these knuckleheads are looking around going "What the hell happened?"

[Alefroth]

And gas prices won't be any lower.

[gbasden]

We were talking to our neighbor today. Great guy, hated Trump. Hates anti-vaxx crap pushed by the right, pro-women's rights, yada yada yada.

However, he started going on about how he waited in line over an hour today in early voting to make sure he voted a straight Republican ticket. Because...gas prices.

It really just bummed out my whole evening. I mean we're well and truly fucked at this point. People aren't listening, they don't care. At some point soon we're literally going to be living the Handmaid's Tale while these knuckleheads are looking around going "What the hell happened?"

It's all I can see around me. The Republicans are doing their best to dismantle democracy, have no respect for the rule of law and absolutely have no relationship with reality, but gas prices are bad or there are too many homeless so let's vote to accelerate that process. How are so many people so goddamned stupid?