Too early to think about 2022?

[El Guapo]

Anyway, my last point on this. Please step back and look at what I've argued objectively. I never argued once that there isn't a problem. Maybe even a bad one. I'm just saying I see certainty and emotion that seemingly has roots out in the disinformation sphere. Which only works when it is something that is somewhat accurate. If you were seeing clean streets everywhere it wouldn't work. Right now -- especially now in the middle of another highly consequential election season -- is the time to be skeptical and less certain about the "truths" we think are informing our political analyses or voting decisions.

You seem to me to be talking in circles. You agree that homelessness is a problem, a bad one even. But, somehow, talking about how bad the homelessness crisis is amounts to "disinformation" and "propaganda."

Sometimes there's a real need for skepticism. Often it's merited. Sometimes (e.g., skepticism in climate change, election results . . . the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland), it's just not.

FWIW I think he's mainly asking whether there's objective data or the like to support the conclusion that Portland is in crisis, and that homelessness / crime / etc. is materially worse than normal. Partly because other Portlandians disagree that this is so, and partly because the narratives out there about "democratic city is in crisis due to soft on crime democratic policies" could lead to confirmation bias, such that stepping over poop goes from "some crazy homeless guy pooped on the sidewalk" to "some crazy guy pooped on the sidewalk because homelessness is out of control."

[malchior]

Anyway, my last point on this. Please step back and look at what I've argued objectively. I never argued once that there isn't a problem. Maybe even a bad one. I'm just saying I see certainty and emotion that seemingly has roots out in the disinformation sphere. Which only works when it is something that is somewhat accurate. If you were seeing clean streets everywhere it wouldn't work. Right now -- especially now in the middle of another highly consequential election season -- is the time to be skeptical and less certain about the "truths" we think are informing our political analyses or voting decisions.

You seem to me to be talking in circles. You agree that homelessness is a problem, a bad one even. But, somehow, talking about how bad the homelessness crisis is amounts to "disinformation" and "propaganda."

I'm not talking in circles. I'm been trying to making a simple point over and over but you seem to be unwilling to entertain it. Just to sum it up the choice of words YOU WROTE are the same exact words written in thousands of stories about homelessness around the country in a very short period of time. Despite showing that to you, you don't seem willing to entertain that you've perhaps been manipulated to think the problem is worse than it appears. I've never even said it's absolutely based on propaganda. I think these sort of attacks and the overabundance of reporting is the result of GOP propaganda campaigns but I can't say with any certainty it is targeting Portland. Anyway, all I said there was a case for it. Again you won't entertain it.

Sometimes there's a real need for skepticism. Often it's merited. Sometimes (e.g., skepticism in climate change, election results . . . the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland), it's just not.

You keep stepping over that other people in your own city don't agree with you. I have reason to be skeptical.

[Holman]

I'm curious. Do red-state policies on homelessness help the homeless get off the streets and find better means of survival?

[Kurth]

Anyway, my last point on this. Please step back and look at what I've argued objectively. I never argued once that there isn't a problem. Maybe even a bad one. I'm just saying I see certainty and emotion that seemingly has roots out in the disinformation sphere. Which only works when it is something that is somewhat accurate. If you were seeing clean streets everywhere it wouldn't work. Right now -- especially now in the middle of another highly consequential election season -- is the time to be skeptical and less certain about the "truths" we think are informing our political analyses or voting decisions.

You seem to me to be talking in circles. You agree that homelessness is a problem, a bad one even. But, somehow, talking about how bad the homelessness crisis is amounts to "disinformation" and "propaganda."

I'm not talking in circles. I'm been trying to making a simple point over and over but you seem to be unwilling to entertain it. Just to sum it up the choice of words YOU WROTE are the same exact words written in thousands of stories about homelessness around the country in a very short period of time. Despite showing that to you, you don't seem willing to entertain that you've perhaps been manipulated to think the problem is worse than it appears. I've never even said it's absolutely based on propaganda. I think these sort of attacks and the overabundance of reporting is the result of GOP propaganda campaigns but I can't say with any certainty it is targeting Portland. Anyway, all I said there was a case for it. Again you won't entertain it.

I'm listening to you, but I'm not buying what you're selling because it's wrong.

Just to say it, one more time, the fact that I talked about poop and needles on the streets of Portland is hardly shocking. You know why? Because poop and needles are shocking, which is also why you can find the media reporting about poop and needles over and over again. What is frustrating to me is that you don't seem to think it's of any significance that I'm not reacting to reports of poop and needles: I'm reacting to firsthand observation of, among many other things, poop and needles - concrete signs that the situation in the city is not good.

You (and maybe Blackhawk) are arguing that perhaps I "have been manipulated to think the problem is worse than it appears" because of all the reporting on poop and needles, but (1) I haven't seen those reports (except maybe some about San Francisco a few years back, now that I think about it); and (2) I'm not talking about isolated incidents of poop and needles. Look, maybe if you visited you'd get what I'm trying to convey, but to argue that there's not a terrible homelessness crisis in Portland right now is almost akin to being a flat-Earther.

I mean, literally, is anybody saying homelessness in Portland really isn't that bad? When U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer says "Portland is broken," you know the situation is FUBAR:

U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer has made a life’s work out of promoting and defending his hometown.

In 2009, when conservative columnist George Will disparaged progressive Portland as out of touch with the rest of the country, Blumenauer punched back on the House floor. He offered to fly Will out to the Rose City for a debate and a glass of pinot.

Eleven years later, as nightly protests over police violence gave way to destructive acts and no end of negative attention, Blumenauer appeared on C-SPAN to contest the notion that Portland was a “city in chaos” and to rail against federal forces for stirring up trouble.

Now coasting toward a 14th term in the U.S. House, the bicycle-crazy Democratic statesman is about to experience a political pinnacle. A bike and pedestrian bridge named in his honor will open in Northeast Portland this summer

But lately, Blumenauer isn’t bragging quite so loudly about the Rose City.

“Portland is broken,” he said in a statement in February announcing his reelection bid . . . Blumenauer bikes through the city and sees piles of garbage and people unable to cope with their afflictions. He hears about sharply rising gun violence. His car’s catalytic converter, like many others, was ripped out by thieves.

It’s not that people aren’t still working to make a better Portland, Blumenauer says, but “collectively I am concerned. Collectively it feels like it’s broken. Collectively it seems like we have challenges unlike any we have ever faced.” . . .

Polling from DHM Research shows that voters are far less happy with the city’s trajectory today than at any time in the last 30 years, when the firm began asking. A rock-bottom 8% of voters say Portland is headed in the right direction, down from 38% before the pandemic, and percentages that routinely hit the high 50s and mid 60s earlier this century.

Separate research by the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center has also turned up deep pessimism: 82% of Multnomah County residents surveyed in April reported being either somewhat or very worried about the future of their part of the state.

“I’ve been on the scene since ‘77,” said Adam Davis, a pollster and executive director of the organization. “I’ve never seen anything like this. Seriously.” . . .

Portland has long been used as a prop in Oregon elections. Republicans hoping to regain a measure of authority in the state reliably use the city as a phantasm to excite their base, warning that the liberal bastion is on the verge of exporting its policy ideas, or its protests, or its homeless.

That hasn’t changed. Republican candidates this year have wasted no time using Portland homeless camps in photo-ops and advertisements, and decrying what they say has been the city’s lax response to a spike in violent crime.

But now, Democrats are just as sour on the state’s largest city.

In the recent poll by the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center, Multnomah County residents of all political stripes reported deep concerns. Of Democrats, 78% said they were somewhat or very worried about the future of the area, compared with 85% of Republicans and 88% of voters in another party or no political party at all. Similar breakdowns exist for survey participants who described themselves as liberal, moderate or conservative on economic and social issues.

“There’s no difference,” Davis, the pollster, said. “Everyone is feeling it, and they’re just feeling like no progress is being made.”

Do you really think that Blumenauer and the 78% of Democrats worried about homelessness and crime and the future of Portland have all "been manipulated to think the problem is worse than it appears"?

Also, I didn't address it previously, but El Guapo also brought up the issue of data, and if feels to me like your requests for data are misplaced. First, the very nature of the problem -- and the lack of attention it has gotten from our political leaders -- makes good data on homelessness hard to come by. But even the data that does exist points unequivocally to the conclusion that the problem of homelessness in Portland is a crisis and is trending in the wrong direction. Compare the 2022 Point in Time Count numbers to those 2019 and 2022. And most everyone agrees that the 2022 numbers are way off due to limitations in the Point in Time Count procedures due to the pandemic.

This just really feels to me like you see the GOP and the partisan hacks beating a drum about this issue and so you are concluding that those who have also identified the issue of homelessness in Portland (and maybe other cities not the subject of these posts) have been fooled into buying into their propaganda.

That's a one-size-fits-all approach that doesn't always work, and it definitely doesn't work here. Even a broken clock tells time accurately twice a day. It doesn't mean that the clock is working or should be relied upon at other times, but it also doesn't mean that the time isn't what that broken clock says it is twice daily.

Sometimes there's a real need for skepticism. Often it's merited. Sometimes (e.g., skepticism in climate change, election results . . . the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland), it's just not.

You keep stepping over that other people in your own city don't agree with you. I have reason to be skeptical.

Look, I'm not calling out Exodor, and I'm not doubting his personal experience in Portland. That said, let's revisit what he said when I commented on the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland:

You must be visiting a different downtown than the one I walked through last week. Two concerts with the kid including one on the edge of old town and didn't run into any zombies.

That one comment is holding a lot of water for your skepticism here.

[Zarathud]

I'm curious. Do red-state policies on homelessness help the homeless get off the streets and find better means of survival?

Of course not. The red-state policies aim to sell outrage and vengeance against “those people”, then pretend the situation is solved.

We’re also more likely to notice the homeless after being isolated for over a year. Plus, government doesn’t jail the homeless to hide them — no one wants to pay for the health care or prison staff. And it doesn’t work. The police know the arrests are likely to be filmed as fodder for social media.

[Skinypupy]

See, this sort of security - having random old white MAGA’s camping out across from ballot drop boxes, videoing every person who drops off a ballot - is what we need to truly ensure a safe and accurate vote in this country. I’m sure that having their license plate numbers recorded and being on video (that’s likely to end up on MAGA forums as “suspicious”) won’t be intimidating at all to voters dropping off their ballots here. Especially minority voters.

Because if you can’t trust MAGA’s to have the electorate’s best interests at heart and respond rationally to anything their tiny pea brains think is even remotely “improper”, then who can you trust?

(seriously though...fuck these people)

NEW: several people have been sitting outside the Maricopa County elections headquarters in Arizona outside 1 of 2 ballot drop boxes.

They have their own cameras rolling, pointed right at the drop box.

A woman here says she is here to get Vitamin D.

[Holman]

A homeless person in Portland or San Francisco is allowed to live on the street or in an encampment, and this produces outrage on Fox.

Where does a homeless person in a small- or mid-sized conservative town live? Are they given shelter? Are they jailed? Are they driven away (perhaps to eventually find shelter on the streets of more liberal cities)?

Serious question. The Fox narrative implies that liberal cities somehow produce homeless citizens who don't appear elsewhere.

[Carpet_pissr]

What a weird...side thread. As a neutral observer, my first reaction to this was "wtf, Malchior?!"

Kurth lives there, has lived there for years from what I can tell, and is making observations about specific, familiar places (to him) that are obviously worse off than they were previously. The fact that he's choosing to use phrasing or wording that is used by media and GOP alarmists COULD ACTUALLY BE A COINCIDENCE. I don't want to go down a further rabbit hole about language and meaning and etymology, but using similar phrasing to describe X as others with a political agenda does not mean you are trying to amplify that agenda.

More importantly, IMO, he is a "known" to us. As far as I can tell, he seems to be an actively critical thinker based on the way he posts, not just mindlessly echoing GOP catchphrases. If his posts had a pattern of mental squishiness or homerism, then sure, I'd be the first to call him out on simply amplifying the signal, but I have never seen evidence of that (quite the opposite I think). Does that not count?

I'm trying to put myself in his shoes...if someone that lives 800 miles away came on here and tried to tell me how things REALLY are in my neighborhood, and that the Qanon flag flying in my neighbor's yard is a figment of media bias that has somehow infected my brain and thinking, I doubt I would be as diplomatic as Kurth is being. Just saying.

[Isgrimnur]

Dallas

Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson thinks the largest city in North Texas shouldn’t carry the brunt of the weight in helping unsheltered people into stable housing, making the case for a more regional approach Tuesday during the annual State of Downtown event.

Many people without reliable shelter end up in Dallas even though their last known address was outside the city because they have access to more resources, Johnson said during the event hosted by Downtown Dallas Inc. at the Moody Performance Hall. Other cities in Dallas, Collin and Denton counties should share more of the burden of helping homeless people get into housing, he said. Johnson described it as a “regional public health problem.”

“Quite frankly, we’re the ones who invest in the services. Dallas is the city with the compassion and the heart that’s building these resources and creating these rapid rehousing programs and spending millions of tax dollars to deal with this,” Johnson said, “When our surrounding suburbs are not doing it, and in some cases, even may be encouraging folks who need these services to come to Dallas. And then brag about how low their tax rate is.”

To be fair, it's a blue city in a red state.

[malchior]

Anyway, my last point on this. Please step back and look at what I've argued objectively. I never argued once that there isn't a problem. Maybe even a bad one. I'm just saying I see certainty and emotion that seemingly has roots out in the disinformation sphere. Which only works when it is something that is somewhat accurate. If you were seeing clean streets everywhere it wouldn't work. Right now -- especially now in the middle of another highly consequential election season -- is the time to be skeptical and less certain about the "truths" we think are informing our political analyses or voting decisions.

You seem to me to be talking in circles. You agree that homelessness is a problem, a bad one even. But, somehow, talking about how bad the homelessness crisis is amounts to "disinformation" and "propaganda."

I'm not talking in circles. I'm been trying to making a simple point over and over but you seem to be unwilling to entertain it. Just to sum it up the choice of words YOU WROTE are the same exact words written in thousands of stories about homelessness around the country in a very short period of time. Despite showing that to you, you don't seem willing to entertain that you've perhaps been manipulated to think the problem is worse than it appears. I've never even said it's absolutely based on propaganda. I think these sort of attacks and the overabundance of reporting is the result of GOP propaganda campaigns but I can't say with any certainty it is targeting Portland. Anyway, all I said there was a case for it. Again you won't entertain it.

I'm listening to you, but I'm not buying what you're selling because it's wrong.

As I said you won't entertain the possibility which...is all that needs to be said. It wasn't meant to be contentious. I'll say I didn't talk about it -- since I don't feel it is too relevant -- but I did visit the city late last year. That was akin to dipping my toe in the water. I hardly left the vicinity of the University of Portland. I also have friends who bounce between Portland and Seattle. They have a very different outlook - though they are concerned about the uptick in property crime. That's partly why I am and will remain skeptical.

Though I did chase hard data down a little. I looked up the crime stats for Portland and they're definitely worse percentage wise. Surprisingly though less of an uptick than other major cities in the same time period for most crimes. Petty larceny decreased and was replaced with vehicle thefts (lines up with the catalytic converter anecdotes). That's catalytic converter problem is all around the country too FWIW -- replacing jacking the power packs from neon headlamps a few years back. One note is that the crime stats weren't normalized to FBI standards until 2019 so it's hard to make apples-to-apples comparisons.

Still I was expecting massive blips to explain this bleak outlook. That certainly wasn't there. I did notice one thing though. Crime was more concentrated pre-pandemic in certain neighborhoods. And some months/time periods are fairly level 4-5 years apart. July 2018 numbers aren't too far off from July 2022 numbers for instance though again crimes cyclically changed categories (or could be an artifact of the FBI re-alignment). The interesting thing is the crime pattern seemingly spread itself more evenly over a larger part of the city including what previously were considered 'safe neighborhoods'. That's precisely the type of events that caused white flight in the late 60s and 70s. Crime from the "bad" neighborhoods spilled out into the "safe areas" and people ran away from the cities. That probably factors into the everyone thinking it's worse. They are seeing what they didn't see before even if it isn't so much more than it was before in aggregate.

[Kraken]

Kurth wins.

There. I'm glad I could settle that.

To me, as someone well removed from the situation, the outrage isn't so much rampant public pooping as that so many people don't have a better alternative.

[Jaymann]

Would it kill them to set up a few dozen port-a-potties?

[malchior]

Kurth lives there, has lived there for years from what I can tell, and is making observations about specific, familiar places (to him) that are obviously worse off than they were previously. The fact that he's choosing to use phrasing or wording that is used by media and GOP alarmists COULD ACTUALLY BE A COINCIDENCE. I don't want to go down a further rabbit hole about language and meaning and etymology, but using similar phrasing to describe X as others with a political agenda does not mean you are trying to amplify that agenda.

I mean I never said there wasn't a problem. There is a homeless issue in every city and in many towns in this nation. The question I asked and still don't have a great answer to is why does he think it's worse. And IMO it comes down mostly to feelings and 'lots of people say type stuff' which isn't quality data. Maybe it is there is a little crime now in my neighborhood when there was none. That's in there too. And there is some merit to the idea it is hard to get the data but that's a reason to be skeptical IMO of major narratives like this.

Still I'll maintain the idea that it is a coincidence strains credulity with me. Thousands of reports with the exact phraseology is a lot of influence messaging. It's kind of crazy that people have watched friends, family, and co-workers slip into alternative fact universes but we're all somehow immune? We're all being constantly manipulated.

More importantly, IMO, he is a "known" to us. As far as I can tell, he seems to be an actively critical thinker based on the way he posts, not just mindlessly echoing GOP catchphrases. If his posts had a pattern of mental squishiness or homerism, then sure, I'd be the first to call him out on simply amplifying the signal, but I have never seen evidence of that (quite the opposite I think). Does that not count?

Where did I say it is mindless? I'm saying media meme narratives stick and influence us subtly. We have tons of evidence of this. This is why misinformation works so well. Many don't want to confront that it is happening and that it is effective.

I'm trying to put myself in his shoes...if someone that lives 800 miles away came on here and tried to tell me how things REALLY are in my neighborhood, and that the Qanon flag flying in my neighbor's yard is a figment of media bias that has somehow infected my brain and thinking, I doubt I would be as diplomatic as Kurth is being. Just saying.

FWIW this is a bit of a misrepresentation. I never argued his city doesn't have issues. I asked 'where's the beef'. And frankly I still don't see it.

[gbasden]

I'm curious. Do red-state policies on homelessness help the homeless get off the streets and find better means of survival?

Of course not. The red-state policies aim to sell outrage and vengeance against “those people”, then pretend the situation is solved.

We’re also more likely to notice the homeless after being isolated for over a year. Plus, government doesn’t jail the homeless to hide them — no one wants to pay for the health care or prison staff. And it doesn’t work. The police know the arrests are likely to be filmed as fodder for social media.

I really can understand what Kurth is saying. Around here in Sacramento there have always been some homeless. But it's not until recently that entire tent cities have sprung up under freeway overpasses. There are streets where there are old campers and motorhomes interspersed with tents for miles. And we've seen the same pattern of downtown stores closing because of people running out with armloads of stuff. There is no good solution as far as I can see - most of these people are just desperate.

[Alefroth]

See, this sort of security - having random old white MAGA’s camping out across from ballot drop boxes, videoing every person who drops off a ballot - is what we need to truly ensure a safe and accurate vote in this country. I’m sure that having their license plate numbers recorded and being on video (that’s likely to end up on MAGA forums as “suspicious”) won’t be intimidating at all to voters dropping off their ballots here. Especially minority voters.

Because if you can’t trust MAGA’s to have the electorate’s best interests at heart and respond rationally to anything their tiny pea brains think is even remotely “improper”, then who can you trust?

(seriously though...fuck these people)

NEW: several people have been sitting outside the Maricopa County elections headquarters in Arizona outside 1 of 2 ballot drop boxes.

They have their own cameras rolling, pointed right at the drop box.

A woman here says she is here to get Vitamin D.

Someone needs to get right in front of them with a large piece of cardboard.

[Kurth]

Last post from me on this, and I want to preface it by saying that I don't take any of this personally. It's all good, and I appreciate the discussion. I respect the hell out of malchior and often learn a lot from his posts. But on this point, this is a really bad take on his part.

Kurth lives there, has lived there for years from what I can tell, and is making observations about specific, familiar places (to him) that are obviously worse off than they were previously. The fact that he's choosing to use phrasing or wording that is used by media and GOP alarmists COULD ACTUALLY BE A COINCIDENCE. I don't want to go down a further rabbit hole about language and meaning and etymology, but using similar phrasing to describe X as others with a political agenda does not mean you are trying to amplify that agenda.

I mean I never said there wasn't a problem. There is a homeless issue in every city and in many towns in this nation. The question I asked and still don't have a great answer to is why does he think it's worse. And IMO it comes down mostly to feelings and 'lots of people say type stuff' which isn't quality data. Maybe it is there is a little crime now in my neighborhood when there was none. That's in there too. And there is some merit to the idea it is hard to get the data but that's a reason to be skeptical IMO of major narratives like this.

Still I'll maintain the idea that it is a coincidence strains credulity with me. Thousands of reports with the exact phraseology is a lot of influence messaging. It's kind of crazy that people have watched friends, family, and co-workers slip into alternative fact universes but we're all somehow immune? We're all being constantly manipulated.

I'm really sorry I ever referenced poop and needles given the direction this has gone, but let's be clear: It's not coincidence. It's fact.

Homelessness and drug dependence are frequently intertwined. Out of control homelessness leads to the presence of used needles on the street, which I've observed in Portland.

Homelessness and lack of on-demand access to modern plumbing also go hand in hand. Out of control homelessness leads to poop on the street, which I've observed in Portland.

The national media reports on poop and needles when they talk about homelessness because they are shocking and sell clicks or views or whatever. Right wingers amplify the messages about poop and needles on the street because they shock people and sell the narrative that Democratic, liberal cities are hell holes. Neither of these truths changes the fact that out of control homelessness leads to needles and poop on the streets or supports a position that people should be skeptical or incredulous when people in cities experiencing a homelessness crisis say they're seeing poop and needles on the street.

Also, you posit that you still don't have a great answer to the question, "Why do I think things have gotten worse in Portland?" I'm not sure why I haven't already answered this. I've lived here since 2015, and I've observed it getting worse. Couch Park, which I referenced in my reply to Exodor, is right across the street from the temple my family has been going to since we moved here. I've watched that park on a weekly basis go from nice to bad to worse to absolutely a place you have to avoid after dark.

Delta Park, also referenced in my reply to Exodor, is a soccer/athletic facility in North Portland that we've been going to since 2016. The surrounding area is almost unrecognizable today from what it was when we started going there.

I used to go on bike rides from Sellwood up to the Oregon Museum of Science (OMSI) on the east bank of the Willamette waterfront. I stopped doing it because of the degree to which large stretches of that trail were taken over by homeless encampments.

I could keep going, but I'm not sure what the point is. I don't know how to answer your question, "Why do I think things have gotten worse in Portland?" other than to tell you that I live here and I've watched them get worse. Also, if you want to discount my experiential or anecdotal observation (and that of the vast numbers of other people who live here), there's data that supports what we're saying.

More importantly, IMO, he is a "known" to us. As far as I can tell, he seems to be an actively critical thinker based on the way he posts, not just mindlessly echoing GOP catchphrases. If his posts had a pattern of mental squishiness or homerism, then sure, I'd be the first to call him out on simply amplifying the signal, but I have never seen evidence of that (quite the opposite I think). Does that not count?

Where did I say it is mindless? I'm saying media meme narratives stick and influence us subtly. We have tons of evidence of this. This is why misinformation works so well. Many don't want to confront that it is happening and that it is effective.

This is where our disconnect is most prominent. You're talking about "media meme narratives" and "misinformation" but I'm posting about what I -- and many, many other people from this area -- are experiencing first hand on a regular basis. You have been suggesting that, despite what we see and experience on the ground, we're being subtly manipulated into thinking the problem is worse than it is. Again, I'm not taking this personally, and I don't think you mean offense, but it almost sounds like you think the 78% of Democrats in the Portland area who are despondent about the state of our city are a bunch of rubes.

I'm trying to put myself in his shoes...if someone that lives 800 miles away came on here and tried to tell me how things REALLY are in my neighborhood, and that the Qanon flag flying in my neighbor's yard is a figment of media bias that has somehow infected my brain and thinking, I doubt I would be as diplomatic as Kurth is being. Just saying.

FWIW this is a bit of a misrepresentation. I never argued his city doesn't have issues. I asked 'where's the beef'. And frankly I still don't see it.

Frankly, it's really not a misrepresentation at all. All cities have issues. I have been posting that the state of homelessness in Portland is a crisis (and one that may cost Democrats in the upcoming elections). Based on one comment made in passing by another board member, you jumped in and argued that my description of the crisis in Portland was an overreaction resulting from my being manipulated and influenced by an over abundance of misinformation and media memes.

"Where's the beef?" Come on. In addition to my personal experiences, I posted links to reports with data on homelessness in Portland with the caveat that that data, dire as it is, very clearly underrepresents the true state of the crisis. In addition to my anecdote about my company having to close a major store because we cannot stop the amount of open and notorious theft taking place on a daily basis, there are a million reports on crime, but here's a link for you to the PPB 2021 annual crime report in case you want to dig in. A 10K foot view with a few numbers:

In 2021 there were 89 homicides — a 65% increase compared to 2020. There were also 1,319 reported shootings in 2021, a 44% increase compared to 2020, and a 219% increase compared to 2019. Of those shootings, 334 were connected to injuries or homicide. Property crimes were also on the rise last year. According to the report, motor vehicle theft increased by 40%. The 9,216 motor vehicle thefts were also a record high for the city.

I think you really need to ask yourself what's fueling your skepticism here and whether it's well founded.

There are so many conversations to be had about solutions to the homelessness problem, and I don't believe there are any easy answers. But there's really no point in having a conversation about whether Portland is facing a crisis in terms of homelessness and crime right now. Not enough people out here are having a serious conversation about solutions to the homelessness crisis, but no one who lives in or around Portland is having a conversation about whether that crisis exists in the first place or its severity.

[malchior]

Ugh. This board ate my post about why I'm skeptical TWICE. Anyway, I wanted to respond because my skepticism isn't all it appears to be through the small lens of what is on the board so I figured I'd at least try to level set.

It is founded on the idea that I'm a hard data person. I don't trust anecdotes generally because they are provably one of the worst forms of evidence! Human memory has been proved to be reconstructive -- subject to all sorts of biases including confirmation and recency biases which are possibilities here -- and is generally unreliable. That why when I heard different from others -- and that is more than just Exodor -- I found the dichotomy to be pretty wide. That's the problem with anecdotal accounts. In my view it is unfortunate folks put a lot of weight on them but that's just the messiness of humanity, amirite!?

Anyway, additionally fueling my skepticism on this is my experience conducting hundreds of hours of data science research on the topic of crime data and public sentiment as my master's capstone. This isn't just abstract musing. I was well aware of the 'needles and feces' phrase due to my research. It sticks out as a sore thumb because it is an extremely reliable way to successfully categorize a Tweet or news paper article topic as 'homelessness' when bulk analyzing social and published media.

The other outcome of my research - which at best is described as preliminary exploration - was that crime sentiments are often not coupled to crime reality. This isn't some revelation and it was going to be a potential research topic for a PhD that I ultimately decided against pursuing. It'd take years of further research and shaping to take it from a notion to proved/disproved. Anyway, that's why I never said he was wrong and was more focused on the absurd to me notion that unconscious bias couldn't be in the mix. That's not how human memory works. When you sit down to write a post and are recollecting your memory to type anything out - the 'mechanical process' is reconstruction. And while that has bleak implications for the human experience - is anything true unless I have hard data - it still comes down to the idea you could be influenced by something you just read minutes ago. Sad.

This is why politics is interesting to me because it is group psychology. And that is the land of emotion - hence fucking Trump - and current politics often impact how people see their day-to-day. These again are proven topics at this point. That is ultimately where the breakdown for me is. The crisis could indeed be as bad as he feels it is. It also might not be. People disagree on this but that one reality -- that this is some deep crisis compared to the past -- is the only true one was what I was trying to unpack. It spiraled way out of control but that ultimately is where I am coming from.

[Kraken]

I filled out my ballot today and will confess to voting for one Republican. Hear me out.

Mass. is about to go 100% blue -- holding every statewide office and large majorities in both legislative houses. One-party states are prone to corruption and the Republican candidate for auditor is well-qualified, endorsed by outgoing Gov. Charlie Baker, scorned by the state GOP (which is a MAGA cesspool), and untainted by trump. He describes himself as "socially liberal and fiscally conservative," which is the very definition of an old-school New England Republican. I agree with his argument that we are better served without a Democratic auditor rubber-stamping the rest of the government. In fact, the auditor's office itself has never been audited and he would start there.

I don't think he has a prayer of winning; all of the Republican candidates are down by 20-ish points.

[Exodor]

Look, I'm not calling out Exodor, and I'm not doubting his personal experience in Portland. That said, let's revisit what he said when I commented on the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland:

You must be visiting a different downtown than the one I walked through last week. Two concerts with the kid including one on the edge of old town and didn't run into any zombies.

That one comment is holding a lot of water for your skepticism here.

I see - your anecdote is data and my observations (and those of numerous others cited in the thread) don't count. You said the city looks like something out of the Walking Dead and you're wondering why you're getting called out for echoing media hyperbole?

Kurth lives there, has lived there for years from what I can tell, and is making observations about specific, familiar places (to him) that are obviously worse off than they were previously.

I've lived here since 1996 and the biggest difference isn't the number of homeless but the hysterical overreaction to it.

[Carpet_pissr]

I filled out my ballot today and will confess to voting for one Republican. Hear me out.

Mass. is about to go 100% blue -- holding every statewide office and large majorities in both legislative houses. One-party states are prone to corruption and the Republican candidate for auditor is well-qualified, endorsed by outgoing Gov. Charlie Baker, scorned by the state GOP (which is a MAGA cesspool), and untainted by trump. He describes himself as "socially liberal and fiscally conservative," which is the very definition of an old-school New England Republican. I agree with his argument that we are better served without a Democratic auditor rubber-stamping the rest of the government. In fact, the auditor's office itself has never been audited and he would start there.

I don't think he has a prayer of winning; all of the Republican candidates are down by 20-ish points.

1. Is there room in Mass for a family of 5, a dog and a cat?
2. We've all been tainted by Trump.

[Carpet_pissr]

Look, I'm not calling out Exodor, and I'm not doubting his personal experience in Portland. That said, let's revisit what he said when I commented on the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland:

You must be visiting a different downtown than the one I walked through last week. Two concerts with the kid including one on the edge of old town and didn't run into any zombies.

That one comment is holding a lot of water for your skepticism here.

I see - your anecdote is data and my observations (and those of numerous others cited in the thread) don't count. You said the city looks like something out of the Walking Dead and you're wondering why you're getting called out for echoing media hyperbole?

Kurth lives there, has lived there for years from what I can tell, and is making observations about specific, familiar places (to him) that are obviously worse off than they were previously.

I've lived here since 1996 and the biggest difference isn't the number of homeless but the hysterical overreaction to it.

Dammit. I had a very clear, very solid opinion. Are you trying to muddy the waters here?!?!

[Kraken]

Is there room in Mass for a family of 5, a dog and a cat?

There is always room for people with money. Housing in greater Boston, where 75% of us live, is very expensive, because there isn't enough of it. The median house price touched $900k before prices took a breather a couple of months ago, and they might even drift down a little next year if the economy sours as predicted. But there are a few affordable liberal enclaves in central and western Mass. You can get a nice spacious house in the Berkshires, where Wife and I intend to move next year, for $500k. Vermont is almost as blue and even cheaper.

[hepcat]

Any of you folks wanna send me your mail in ballots? I'll hand deliver 'em to an outside ballot box that someone set up near me. I'm also turning on my GPS on my phone so I can be tracked, and I'll deliver each ballot individually every 30 minutes.

[LawBeefaroni]

See, this sort of security - having random old white MAGA’s camping out across from ballot drop boxes, videoing every person who drops off a ballot - is what we need to truly ensure a safe and accurate vote in this country. I’m sure that having their license plate numbers recorded and being on video (that’s likely to end up on MAGA forums as “suspicious”) won’t be intimidating at all to voters dropping off their ballots here. Especially minority voters.

Because if you can’t trust MAGA’s to have the electorate’s best interests at heart and respond rationally to anything their tiny pea brains think is even remotely “improper”, then who can you trust?

(seriously though...fuck these people)

NEW: several people have been sitting outside the Maricopa County elections headquarters in Arizona outside 1 of 2 ballot drop boxes.

They have their own cameras rolling, pointed right at the drop box.

A woman here says she is here to get Vitamin D.

Someone needs to get right in front of them with a large piece of cardboard.

No, rent a 26' box truck and park it in front of them.

[Jaymann]

Set up a lounge chair with a sun umbrella and a cooler of beer in front of them.

[Jaymann]

Mailed in my ballot today. Took advantage of a write-in spot for School Superintendent to vote for Frank Zappa. A dead Zappa is better than most of these creeps. Maybe next time I'll vote for Dweezil.

[Blackhawk]

I worry that there will be a number of R nutjobs in contested states submitting fraudulent ballots - for the Democrats. Something that they can point at afterward as proof that voter fraud does take place. All they need is a few dozen in each of a few counties to bolster their argument, and to contest any election that they lose.

[Carpet_pissr]

I worry that there will be a number of R nutjobs in contested states submitting fraudulent ballots - for the Democrats. Something that they can point at afterward as proof that voter fraud does take place. All they need is a few dozen in each of a few counties to bolster their argument, and to contest any election that they lose.

I think the plan/m.o. going forward is to contest no matter what. At least for the magats.

Hell, many are “pre” contesting without knowing if they won or lost!

We’re in Bananasville.

[Unagi]

agreed.

also - I hate to say this - but if this 2022 election cycle leads to some of the negative expectations we've been discussing - I'm likely to start to disengage from it all... It starts (in my mind) to turn into a "let them live with their world, I'm sick of trying to help them" state of mind... I hate that. But I just can't just keep shoveling coal into an oven if I don't have the coal - or if the oven is so obviously breached. I'm finding myself drifting into a more 'have fun with your world' point of view... and yet I have 12 and 15 yo offspring-humans I give a shit about.


I so hate that, but I can't put myself in opposition to this overwhelming ignorance/religiously driven BULLSHIT protest/blind-lib-Hate - while it enjoys such support... What the Actual FUCK! and maybe the next generation needs to actually taste the bitter evil as soon as possible, so they are able to react.

Hey, here is an idea - maybe the faithful that find the other faithful abnoxious could actually articulate that - that would be so fucking helpful... because otherwise I hope it's obvious how their compassionate frame of mind has been totally hijacked by some potential of some heavenly 'fix'.

And I'm seriously sorry to anyone here that reads this and takes offense - but fuck the blind Christian alligience to this political party. Fuck them all to fucking hell, if they could just understand a fucking single message from Jesus (HONESTLY !!!!) - they wouldn't act this way, but surprise surprise....... peace of shit religion... even if they are better than some.

[Kurth]

Look, I'm not calling out Exodor, and I'm not doubting his personal experience in Portland. That said, let's revisit what he said when I commented on the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland:

You must be visiting a different downtown than the one I walked through last week. Two concerts with the kid including one on the edge of old town and didn't run into any zombies.

That one comment is holding a lot of water for your skepticism here.

I see - your anecdote is data and my observations (and those of numerous others cited in the thread) don't count. You said the city looks like something out of the Walking Dead and you're wondering why you're getting called out for echoing media hyperbole?

That's not what I'm saying at all, Exodor. I never said your experiences don't count. You seemed to me to be asking about what parts of Portland I was experiencing increased issues with homelessness, and I pointed those out to you. I'm sure you know the places I mentioned.

Referencing the Walking Dead was poor on my part. I agree that it's hyperbolic. It's also insensitive and shows a shitty lack of empathy for the people at issue. They're people, not zombies, and I regret using that language.

Kurth lives there, has lived there for years from what I can tell, and is making observations about specific, familiar places (to him) that are obviously worse off than they were previously.

I've lived here since 1996 and the biggest difference isn't the number of homeless but the hysterical overreaction to it.

We're just going to have to disagree on this. I haven't been here anywhere near as long as you have, but over the 8 years I have been here, the changes in the city have been stark, and the data backs that up. Is there a lot of news coverage about homelessness in Portland? Sure. But the reason so many people in the Portland metro area -- from all sides of the political spectrum -- are "hysterical" about it isn't the news coverage. It's what they're experiencing on a daily basis.

[LordMortis]

I think the plan/m.o. going forward is to contest no matter what. At least for the magats.

Remember when we were young and the old conservatives bemoaned all the lawyers and how everyone sued for everything? And then they found their scion and suing was the only tool in his tool belt and it had been shown to be particularly effective whenever he was clearly in the wrong. And then he got to choose jurists to interpret the legal system for four years.

[malchior]

[Smoove_B]

And wait until you see how many PA residents vote for him.

[Kraken]

Fetterman's speech deficit did him no favors. He won on substance; Oz won on presentation, as one would expect from a professional huckster. But neither one was very compelling. Or so said the Philly Inquirer's reaction piece.

[Unagi]

What part of “Oz” is so hard for people to understand.

[Kurth]

Fetterman's speech deficit did him no favors. He won on substance; Oz won on presentation, as one would expect from a professional huckster. But neither one was very compelling. Or so said the Philly Inquirer's reaction piece.

I'm afraid Fetterman is in trouble. As bad as Oz is, I think Fetterman is going to lose due to the after effects of his stroke. He wasn't the most polished speaker before the stroke, but he's distractingly bad now. And people are superficial and stupid and are probably going to vote for Oz as a result.

[Daveman]

I think hell is living in one state (NJ) that's next to a now vital swing state (PA) and how local TV has been damn near 80% political ads for over a month now... and I can't even vote for any of them.

The only oddities this time around are:

1. Almost no ads that are pro-Mastriano for PA governor.
2. The one election that I can impact is nearly a lock for former Democrat turned Republican/Trumpist Van Drew. So much so there are no ads for either candidate. Guy now dresses like a used car salesman trying out to be a game show host.

[El Guapo]

I think hell is living in one state (NJ) that's next to a now vital swing state (PA) and how local TV has been damn near 80% political ads for over a month now... and I can't even vote for any of them.

The only oddities this time around are:

1. Almost no ads that are pro-Mastriano for PA governor.
2. The one election that I can impact is nearly a lock for former Democrat turned Republican/Trumpist Van Drew. So much so there are no ads for either candidate. Guy now dresses like a used car salesman trying out to be a game show host.

Same situation being a Mass voter - get tons of NH ads, almost none for MA races.

[Carpet_pissr]

re: Fetterman situation, to be fair, being able to communicate, and specifically speak well is, or at least should be a quality we seek at this level. As horrible a candidate as Oz is, I can totally see a reasonable person at least staying home on this one, due to thinking Fetterman wasn't fit (verbally, or otherwise).

Just really shitty luck in this case.

It's also why I am so down on Biden...especially lately, my God. He has gotten MUCH worse just in the past few months. The last time I heard him in front of a mic, I felt downright embarrassed FOR him. At that level, I don't care what's in your heart, or how great your policies may be, if you can't effectively deliver a message to a public audience, it has all kinds of negative ramifications.

I kind of view it through a job posting lens: assume the job description says "This role requires public speaking. Successful candidates will be expected to regularly give speeches in front of thousands of people on various topics, both in person and via television. Please bring recent video examples of your capabilities in this area to the interview"

Neither Biden nor Fetterman would likely nail that interview (sadly).

[Smoove_B]

I'm afraid Fetterman is in trouble. As bad as Oz is, I think Fetterman is going to lose due to the after effects of his stroke. He wasn't the most polished speaker before the stroke, but he's distractingly bad now. And people are superficial and stupid and are probably going to vote for Oz as a result.

If Fetterman doesn't win in a landslide after hearing Oz suggest that an abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local political leaders then I don't even know what to say anymore. I get that awful people are going to vote for Oz no matter what, but that sentence alone should be his point of no return.