Too early to think about 2022?

[Little Raven]

This cannot be real.

The district voted for Biden by nearly 14 points in 2020, and longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin, who is retiring, has held it easily for more than two decades, winning by big margins even in strong years for Republicans.

But Magaziner’s Republican opponent, Allan Fung, is threatening to break through the blue wall of New England, which has been a Democratic a stronghold for nearly two decades.

Two recent polls have shown Fung, a popular former mayor and the Republican nominee, with a slight lead.

How the hell are Republicans gaining over 15 points in 2 years in solid blue New England?

I mean, I've watched it happen down here in Texas, but I figured that was a regional side effect of Democrats tireless efforts to ostracize southern Hispanics as much as humanly possible. But....Rhode Island?

[El Guapo]

This cannot be real.

The district voted for Biden by nearly 14 points in 2020, and longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin, who is retiring, has held it easily for more than two decades, winning by big margins even in strong years for Republicans.

But Magaziner’s Republican opponent, Allan Fung, is threatening to break through the blue wall of New England, which has been a Democratic a stronghold for nearly two decades.

Two recent polls have shown Fung, a popular former mayor and the Republican nominee, with a slight lead.

How the hell are Republicans gaining over 15 points in 2 years in solid blue New England?

I mean, I've watched it happen down here in Texas, but I figured that was a regional side effect of Democrats tireless efforts to ostracize southern Hispanics as much as humanly possible. But....Rhode Island?

Well, some of the stylings in the article paint a bit of a silly background picture. Basically New England states electing Republicans to federal positions has become rarer in recent years (though Susan Collins was just reelected by a healthy margin in Maine). All this is saying is that Republicans are targeting four House seats in New England, and may win one or two in a political environment that should favor Republicans. That doesn't really tell us anything particularly meaningful about a changing political environment in New England.

As for the RI race...it sounds like a popular incumbent is retiring and that Republicans managed to nominate a known, sane, and popular figure for the general election. When stuff like that happens (and the political environment is favorable) big swings do happen. And even there all we know is that one poll puts the Republican candidate in the lead.

[malchior]

Well, some of the stylings in the article paint a bit of a silly background picture. Basically New England states electing Republicans to federal positions has become rarer in recent years (though Susan Collins was just reelected by a healthy margin in Maine). All this is saying is that Republicans are targeting four House seats in New England, and may win one or two in a political environment that should favor Republicans. That doesn't really tell us anything particularly meaningful about a changing political environment in New England.

Seriously but you don't get clicks without hyperbole. This is more a Charlie Baker Republican story but there is the usual dash of misinformation in there as well. This is why we are hearing the fentanyl Halloween stories. The mood in this country is sour and people and Americans as we do are being scared into actually embracing much more dangerous risks.

It sounds like the Democratic candidate is trying to talk through it but that is much harder to defend against in this environment. Especially when you see stories like this. You can't help but think that out of all this even a single flipped seat will lead to massive Democrats in disarray and collapse narratives from the clickbait hungry major media outlets.

[malchior]

I would love nothing more than to see Johnson lose this race. He is one of the worst of the worst. Unfortunately it looks almost certain Johnson will win.

[Kurth]

I would love nothing more than to see Johnson lose this race. He is one of the worst of the worst. Unfortunately it looks almost certain Johnson will win.

My daughter is a senior in high school and is looking at colleges right now. One of the schools that seems like a good fit for her is University of Wisconsin - Madison. Another is University of Florida (if she can get in; man, that school has apparently become much more selective).

But she and I are both torn by the fact that these state schools are in states where the political leaders are, by and large, dirtbags. And idiots.

Not sure that should impact her decision, but it’s definitely something we’re considering.

[LordMortis]

Not sure that should impact her decision, but it’s definitely something we’re considering.

She'll spend the majority of her next 4-5 years living with the consequences of elections and political decisions living in the state she chooses. That''s either very mature or very cynical. It's hard for me to tell nowadays.

[malchior]

I even blanch to suggest you have to think about it but it's not just the shit representation. There are health care consequences beginning to appear in red states. Wisconsin might break very bad as and that mostly comes down to whether Evers wins or not.

[LordMortis]

I even blanch to suggest you have to think about it but it's not just the shit representation. There are health care consequences beginning to appear in red states. Wisconsin might break very bad as and that mostly comes down to whether Evers wins or not.

I didn't want to suggest that as that comes with baggage but I was thinking about it as well.

[Unagi]

Many many many young women have been considering their health care more so than ever when selecting a potential college this year.

Personally, I’d never send my female child off into a state where any of these laws are potentially in play.

[ImLawBoy]

My daughter is a senior in high school and is looking at colleges right now. One of the schools that seems like a good fit for her is University of Wisconsin - Madison. Another is University of Florida (if she can get in; man, that school has apparently become much more selective).

But she and I are both torn by the fact that these state schools are in states where the political leaders are, by and large, dirtbags. And idiots.

Not sure that should impact her decision, but it’s definitely something we’re considering.

FWIW, Madison itself is very left leaning. That doesn't absolve all of the state-wide issues, of course (including the continued existence of the Green Bay Packers), but locally it would be different from other parts of the state.

[Kurth]

My daughter is a senior in high school and is looking at colleges right now. One of the schools that seems like a good fit for her is University of Wisconsin - Madison. Another is University of Florida (if she can get in; man, that school has apparently become much more selective).

But she and I are both torn by the fact that these state schools are in states where the political leaders are, by and large, dirtbags. And idiots.

Not sure that should impact her decision, but it’s definitely something we’re considering.

FWIW, Madison itself is very left leaning. That doesn't absolve all of the state-wide issues, of course (including the continued existence of the Green Bay Packers), but locally it would be different from other parts of the state.

Yeah, that’s my understanding as well. Also, even though she’d be living in a potentially fucked-up MAGAt state, she’d only be a plane ride away from home in Oregon. On the other hand, she tends to be something of a firebrand, especially when it comes to issues regarding LGBTQ rights and women’s health. I suppose getting her outside the progressive bubble of suburban Portland would be a good thing, but it might be a little uncomfortable for her, too.

[Pyperkub]

Hmm. I didn't know about this limitation on SuperPAC ads:

Hour after hour in state after state, Republicans are paying double, triple, quadruple and sometimes even 10 times more than Democrats for ads on the exact same programs.

One reason is legal and beyond Republicans’ control. But the other is linked to the weak fund-raising of Republican candidates this year and the party’s heavy dependence on billionaire-funded super PACs.

Political candidates are protected under a federal law that allows them to pay the lowest price available for broadcast ads. Super PACs have no such protections, and Republicans have been more reliant on super PACs this year because their candidates have had trouble fund-raising. So Democrats have been the ones chiefly benefiting from the mandated low pricing, and Republicans in many top races have been at the mercy of the exorbitant rates charged by television stations as the election nears.

[malchior]

It isn't just Ron Johnson. This country is a clown show. Between him and Walker and Oz and JD Vance and Masters and ... just another election that I can't wait to be over

[Kurth]

Here’s a shocker: Democrats may lose the Oregon governor’s race.

Not sure how closely people have been following this one, as it seems to just now be catching national attention, but this had been brewing for a while.

Tina Kotek seemed like a shoe-in against Republican Christine Drazan, and then moderate-Dem Betsy Johnson decided to run as an independent. She’s pulling significant votes away from Kotek, and the race is pretty much a toss up at this point between Kotek and Drazan.

None of this should be surprising to anyone family with what’s been going on in Portland and OR generally.

Portland has turned into a shithole. It’s unsafe and unsavory. Walking around downtown feels like you’re on the set of The Walking Dead at times. The political leaders (Dems) have kicked the homelessness can down the road for so long, it now may finally cost them.

I’m no fan of Drazan, but I’m honestly not going to shed any tears if Kotek loses. And I very well may end up being part of the reason she loses if I, like many other moderate Dems I know, end up voting for Johnson.

[gbasden]

I’m no fan of Drazan, but I’m honestly not going to shed any tears if Kotek loses. And I very well may end up being part of the reason she loses if I, like many other moderate Dems I know, end up voting for Johnson.

I hate having to think this way, but is Drazan what passed for a normal Republican until recently, or is she another election denying MAGA crazy? I haven't been able to find a good profile of her. I completely get the frustration with the homeless crisis, but dear lord I hope Oregon isn't going to elect someone who will help tear down democracy is 2024.

[Kurth]

I’m no fan of Drazan, but I’m honestly not going to shed any tears if Kotek loses. And I very well may end up being part of the reason she loses if I, like many other moderate Dems I know, end up voting for Johnson.

I hate having to think this way, but is Drazan what passed for a normal Republican until recently, or is she another election denying MAGA crazy? I haven't been able to find a good profile of her. I completely get the frustration with the homeless crisis, but dear lord I hope Oregon isn't going to elect someone who will help tear down democracy is 2024.

I honestly don’t know a ton about her. I’ve never really followed OR state politics that closely until recently when Kurt Schrader, our moderate Dem Congressman got primaried by a much more progressive liberal candidate. It’s interesting that he’s now supporting the moderate-Dem independent, Betsy Johnson. But as far as state races, they’ve always been pretty much pre-baked: the GOP hasn’t even mounted a significant challenge for the governor’s office since I’ve been here. Republicans - some of them, crazy MAGAts - hold sway in the rural parts of central and eastern OR for the most part, but Portland and the other highly populated areas of the state are solidly progressive and liberal.

What I do know of Drazan is that she seems to fall into what you describe as “what passed for a normal Republican until recently.” From a policy perspective, she doesn’t really do it for me, as she tends to be anti-choice, anti-gun control, and anti-environment. But she’s not crazy. Not a climate change denier. Not an election denier (although she also hasn’t openly disavowed some of the more crazy MAGAts either).

But Tina Kotek on the other hand. . . Really does seem like just more of the same progressive liberal leadership that is driving Portland into the ground. I sympathize and agree with those out here who feel like we need a change.

[Grifman]

Well, I was once optimistic about the Democrats holding the house and senate, especially after a series of legislator I’ve triumphs, but no longer. As usual the economy over rules everything. A lot of the senate races (Oz in PA, Vance in OH) have tightened, and now I just hope the Dems can hold on the the Senate. A Republican house will be a nightmare, with all sorts of “investigations” launched for purely political purposes. Nothing substantive will be done.



But what really worries me is 2024. We are most likely going to have a recession and that will make it even worse for the Dems. I don’t see the Dems winning the presidency in that environment, even if Trump runs. He’ll be back unless indicted, is my fear.

[Exodor]

Portland has turned into a shithole. It’s unsafe and unsavory. Walking around downtown feels like you’re on the set of The Walking Dead at times. The political leaders (Dems) have kicked the homelessness can down the road for so long, it now may finally cost them.

You must be visiting a different downtown than the one I walked through last week. Two concerts with the kid including one on the edge of old town and didn't run into any zombies.

You're right about the -R winning Oregon this year though but it's because of Betsy Johnson running as a spoiler backed by gigantic donations from Phil Knight and other republicans.

[Scraper]

Portland has turned into a shithole. It’s unsafe and unsavory. Walking around downtown feels like you’re on the set of The Walking Dead at times. The political leaders (Dems) have kicked the homelessness can down the road for so long, it now may finally cost them.

You must be visiting a different downtown than the one I walked through last week. Two concerts with the kid including one on the edge of old town and didn't run into any zombies.

You're right about the -R winning Oregon this year though but it's because of Betsy Johnson running as a spoiler backed by gigantic donations from Phil Knight and other republicans.

I was wondering about this. Is Portland really as bad as the GOP would have you believe or is it blown out of proportion? I've never been there myself, but it looks like a nice place to visit.

[Exodor]

I was wondering about this. Is Portland really as bad as the GOP would have you believe or is it blown out of proportion? I've never been there myself, but it looks like a nice place to visit.

There's definitely a larger homeless population than in the past but it's mostly an exaggerated bullshit media narrative.

[malchior]

This issue is one of my biggest pet peeves. It's a largely unquantified claim but it's meant to distract from the real decline that should be focused on -- the broad-based moral decay, endless grifting, nativism/outright bigotry, and distain for rule of law and democratic norms by the GOP. "Don't focus on our criming (and the elite impunity that enables it) because the cities are scary". Forget that they have no policy answers to this supposed problem. They have no facts. It is a blustery, fact-light political line meant to influence suburban women and unfortunately it mostly works.

[Holman]

I was wondering about this. Is Portland really as bad as the GOP would have you believe or is it blown out of proportion? I've never been there myself, but it looks like a nice place to visit.

There's definitely a larger homeless population than in the past but it's mostly an exaggerated bullshit media narrative.

I got into a Twitter spat (always a bad idea) with someone claiming to be from "Gwinnett, GA."

There is no such place. Gwinnett County is NE of Atlanta, and in fact it hosts the town where I went to high school. But nobody in the Atlanta metro area refers to themselves as being from a particular county: it's all a patchwork of individual municipalities where counties mean nothing. (There were also odd phrasings suggesting imperfect English translation.)

I called out my antagonist as probably fake, and they proceeded to explain how Philadelphia (my location declared on Twitter) is a violent hellhole where no one can walk the streets without being shot or assaulted. This is news to me, since I walk those streets every day and send my kids into them too.

[Default]

"It's a gritty urban hellscape where you can't even find a decent corndog. They're SAVAGES."

[Scraper]

"It's a gritty urban hellscape where you can't even find a decent corndog. They're SAVAGES."

Plus I hear they put melted cheese on their steak sandwiches. Total animals.

[coopasonic]

"It's a gritty urban hellscape where you can't even find a decent corndog. They're SAVAGES."

Plus I hear they put melted cheese on their steak sandwiches. Total animals.

"steak"

[Holman]

"It's a gritty urban hellscape where you can't even find a decent corndog. They're SAVAGES."

Plus I hear they put melted cheese on their steak sandwiches. Total animals.

"steak"

Hey, man. The best cheesesteak is finely chopped rib-eye.

With Cheez Whiz.

[Kurth]

Portland has turned into a shithole. It’s unsafe and unsavory. Walking around downtown feels like you’re on the set of The Walking Dead at times. The political leaders (Dems) have kicked the homelessness can down the road for so long, it now may finally cost them.

You must be visiting a different downtown than the one I walked through last week. Two concerts with the kid including one on the edge of old town and didn't run into any zombies.

You're right about the -R winning Oregon this year though but it's because of Betsy Johnson running as a spoiler backed by gigantic donations from Phil Knight and other republicans.

Do you seriously contest the notion that the homelessness and general deterioration of Portland is a crisis? And calling it a crisis is honestly an understatement.

Have you been to Delta Park recently? My son plays soccer tournaments out there, and it's almost unimaginable how bad it is. This story from KGW - 'I only see it getting worse': Rise in homelessness evident at Portland's Delta Park - is from 2019. And it's even worse now then it was then.

I went to a concert (Spoon/Interpol) at Pioneer Place two weeks ago, and I had to step over human feces on the sidewalk. Needles and trash are all over the place downtown.

What about Couch Park, just off 23rd? That used to be a safe and clean park. It's now overwhelmed with homeless campers. I walked through there last month and had an obviously mentally ill man get up in my face and scream at me. Same thing happened with a woman downtown near the water front in August.

And the homeless encampments have gone from tents to full-on semi-permanent installations with jury-rigged propane-fueled heating and cooking.

I mean, this is so far from the media making a mountain out of a molehill, that it's hard to describe how far the reality is from that narrative.

Look, Oregon Public Broadcasting is not exactly the WSJ or Fox in its perspective. But even a relatively recent article from them which tries to humanize the homeless (excuse me, unhoused) and seek their input on possible solutions pulls no punches about how bad the situation is in Portland: People experiencing homelessness in Portland weigh in on solutions

Neither do these articles:
Longtime Portland business says it's losing customers due to large homeless camp

How Portland’s homelessness crisis impacts downtown businesses (podcast)

Crime, homelessness hit downtown Portland's commercial real estate market

There's really no need to keep listing articles. It can't really be in dispute that homelessness and crime (often related) are out of control in Portland. This isn't an exaggeration. This isn't the national media trying to blow something out of proportion. It's a fucking crisis.

And the Democrats are very likely to lose ground here in the coming elections, in big part, due to a failure to address the issue.

[Kurth]

This issue is one of my biggest pet peeves. It's a largely unquantified claim but it's meant to distract from the real decline that should be focused on -- the broad-based moral decay, endless grifting, nativism/outright bigotry, and distain for rule of law and democratic norms by the GOP. "Don't focus on our criming (and the elite impunity that enables it) because the cities are scary". Forget that they have no policy answers to this supposed problem. They have no facts. It is a blustery, fact-light political line meant to influence suburban women and unfortunately it mostly works.

See post above. This is complete and utter horseshit when it comes to the situation in Portland. Our problems, especially with homelessness and crime, have nothing to do with "broad-based moral decay, endless grifting, nativism/outright bigotry, and distain for rule of law and democratic norms by the GOP."

And this isn't Mike Dukakis getting Willie Hortoned. You are singing the wrong tune here, malchior.

[malchior]

This issue is one of my biggest pet peeves. It's a largely unquantified claim but it's meant to distract from the real decline that should be focused on -- the broad-based moral decay, endless grifting, nativism/outright bigotry, and distain for rule of law and democratic norms by the GOP. "Don't focus on our criming (and the elite impunity that enables it) because the cities are scary". Forget that they have no policy answers to this supposed problem. They have no facts. It is a blustery, fact-light political line meant to influence suburban women and unfortunately it mostly works.

See post above. This is complete and utter horseshit when it comes to the situation in Portland. Our problems, especially with homelessness and crime, have nothing to do with "broad-based moral decay, endless grifting, nativism/outright bigotry, and distain for rule of law and democratic norms by the GOP."

When I say fact-light I am asking where's the hard data? What is the (estimated) count of homelessness? Is it higher as a percent of the population than it was in the past? Are there more ODs in the past? I'm not asking for measurements of crap in the street here. That isn't a challenge to dig up data at all, more that I'm just skeptically asking how do the ("royal we") know this is actually the problem we are told it is. What you posted is pretty much what I abstractly expected as the refutation when I throw that sort of 'where's the data' idea out into the universe on this topic. It comes across more about how you feel about it. It might be objective reality. It also could be confirmation bias shaped by media narratives.

And this isn't Mike Dukakis getting Willie Hortoned. You are singing the wrong tune here, malchior.

FWIW that comment wasn't thrown out to you solely. It was because you are saying one thing and someone else is saying another. In the same community. And that isn't unusual. We hear this in many cities. IMO it is partially rooted in stock media narratives that are spun over and over. They are meant to influence us to believe our cities are hellholes while most of them have historically low crime and drug death rates.

We (nationally) certainly do have a serious homelessness problem. However, this sort of 'needles and feces' comments is pretty much the stock manufactured media narrative for urban homelessness that we hear trying to sell us the story that cities are Democratic party created dystopias. Maybe in Portland this is especially true but to me it certainly sounds influenced by the media narrative.

To illustrate this, I did a quick google search and you can find pages of stories with this phrasing all over the country. It is the reusable widget for describing squalor and boost a GOP talking point which is why I mentioned it. Pages after pages of the same story being told about every city.

[Jaymann]

Yes, the cities are hellholes, unlike the rural utopias where the people are strung out on opioids.

[Kurth]

This issue is one of my biggest pet peeves. It's a largely unquantified claim but it's meant to distract from the real decline that should be focused on -- the broad-based moral decay, endless grifting, nativism/outright bigotry, and distain for rule of law and democratic norms by the GOP. "Don't focus on our criming (and the elite impunity that enables it) because the cities are scary". Forget that they have no policy answers to this supposed problem. They have no facts. It is a blustery, fact-light political line meant to influence suburban women and unfortunately it mostly works.

See post above. This is complete and utter horseshit when it comes to the situation in Portland. Our problems, especially with homelessness and crime, have nothing to do with "broad-based moral decay, endless grifting, nativism/outright bigotry, and distain for rule of law and democratic norms by the GOP."

When I say fact-light I am asking where's the hard data? What is the (estimated) count of homelessness? Is it higher as a percent of the population than it was in the past? Are there more ODs in the past? I'm not asking for measurements of crap in the street here. That isn't a challenge to dig up data at all, more that I'm just skeptically asking how do the ("royal we") know this is actually the problem we are told it is. What you posted is pretty much what I abstractly expected as the refutation when I throw that sort of 'where's the data' idea out into the universe on this topic. It comes across more about how you feel about it. It might be objective reality. It also could be confirmation bias shaped by media narratives.

And this isn't Mike Dukakis getting Willie Hortoned. You are singing the wrong tune here, malchior.

FWIW that comment wasn't thrown out to you solely. It was because you are saying one thing and someone else is saying another. In the same community. And that isn't unusual. We hear this in many cities. IMO it is partially rooted in stock media narratives that are spun over and over. They are meant to influence us to believe our cities are hellholes while most of them have historically low crime and drug death rates.

We (nationally) certainly do have a serious homelessness problem. However, this sort of 'needles and feces' comments is pretty much the stock manufactured media narrative for urban homelessness that we hear trying to sell us the story that cities are Democratic party created dystopias. Maybe in Portland this is especially true but to me it certainly sounds influenced by the media narrative.

To illustrate this, I did a quick google search and you can find pages of stories with this phrasing all over the country. It is the reusable widget for describing squalor and boost a GOP talking point which is why I mentioned it. Pages after pages of the same story being told about every city.

It almost feels like it’s time to bring out the “You Callin’ Me a Liar?” GIF.

Seriously, I’m not sure how to react to your post. I’m telling you about what I’m actually seeing. Recently. In Portland. Where I live. And you seem to be diminishing or doubting that because what I’m telling you is aligned with what media sources have also reported? How does that make any sense?

The fact that what I’m telling you lines up with “the reusable widget for describing squalor” is because poop and needles on the streets are fucking gross and impactful, and people react to that when they see it. It leaves an indelible impression, and it absolutely says something about the state of the streets you are walking on.

Honestly, if you’re going to tell me the crisis of homelessness and crime in Portland is not a thing, I don’t know what there is to say. It’s not the number one issue in the city right now because it’s a “fact-light political line meant to influence suburban women.” It’s the number one issue because it is impacting the entire city and the quality of lives of those who live in and around it and it is unavoidably obvious. To diminish the severity of the issue and point instead to a malicious GOP narrative is venturing into alternative facts territory.

[El Guapo]

Here’s a shocker: Democrats may lose the Oregon governor’s race.

Not sure how closely people have been following this one, as it seems to just now be catching national attention, but this had been brewing for a while.

Tina Kotek seemed like a shoe-in against Republican Christine Drazan, and then moderate-Dem Betsy Johnson decided to run as an independent. She’s pulling significant votes away from Kotek, and the race is pretty much a toss up at this point between Kotek and Drazan.

None of this should be surprising to anyone family with what’s been going on in Portland and OR generally.

Portland has turned into a shithole. It’s unsafe and unsavory. Walking around downtown feels like you’re on the set of The Walking Dead at times. The political leaders (Dems) have kicked the homelessness can down the road for so long, it now may finally cost them.

I’m no fan of Drazan, but I’m honestly not going to shed any tears if Kotek loses. And I very well may end up being part of the reason she loses if I, like many other moderate Dems I know, end up voting for Johnson.

Setting aside the Portland stuff...what exactly is Johnson hoping to accomplish here? Presumably she understands that she doesn't have a viable shot at victory, and also that it's only her candidacy which is giving the Republican nominee a chance in Oregon? Is she thinking of this in a "I have to destroy the Oregon Democratic Party in order to save it" way?

It's frustrating that we don't have more ranked choice voting in order to allow third party candidates to make their case without throwing elections to unpopular opposition candidates, but I just don't understand what she's trying to do.

[malchior]

It almost feels like it’s time to bring out the “You Callin’ Me a Liar?” GIF.

For pete's sake. Read it again then. I'm not calling you a liar. I'm saying you're being influenced by a barrage of negative stories about homelessness in the press.

Seriously, I’m not sure how to react to your post. I’m telling you about what I’m actually seeing. Recently. In Portland. Where I live. And you seem to be diminishing or doubting that because what I’m telling you is aligned with what media sources have also reported? How does that make any sense?

Again read it and think about what I'm saying instead of just reacting. I'm not calling you out. Again another person in your community doesn't seem to think it is as bad as you're saying. I'm just showing you that I hear this story all the time in my area too. Many of us likely do. And the way you're reacting is exactly why they push this story. It works.

The fact that what I’m telling you lines up with “the reusable widget for describing squalor” is because poop and needles on the streets are fucking gross and impactful, and people react to that when they see it. It leaves an indelible impression, and it absolutely says something about the state of the streets you are walking on.

Good lord. 7000 links to stories all over the country like this - I could slice and dice the time frames but it's a torrent. And when you repeat the literal language they all do it tells me you are reading those stories and are being influenced by them. That's all I'm saying.

Honestly, if you’re going to tell me the crisis of homelessness and crime in Portland is not a thing, I don’t know what there is to say.

I'm not saying there aren't homeless. It's true of any city (for pretty much all human history). It is the idea that NOW when everything is falling apart this is somehow some dire crisis that happens to fall on one political party?! Come on. There is a clear case this is propaganda.

It’s not the number one issue in the city right now because it’s a “fact-light political line meant to influence suburban women.” It’s the number one issue because it is impacting the entire city and the quality of lives of those who live in and around it and it is unavoidably obvious. To diminish the severity of the issue and point instead to a malicious GOP narrative is venturing into alternative facts territory.

I haven't said it isn't happening. I'm not saying there isn't a problem. I'm saying that it is being hopped up. I'm asking you to think about that point instead of just reacting with fury.

[malchior]

Setting aside the Portland stuff...what exactly is Johnson hoping to accomplish here? Presumably she understands that she doesn't have a viable shot at victory, and also that it's only her candidacy which is giving the Republican nominee a chance in Oregon? Is she thinking of this in a "I have to destroy the Oregon Democratic Party in order to save it" way?

It's another business person with a gigantic ego. She spins the usual streets on fire and the schools are terrible story then says she is trying to show people something other than the D-R warfare. When you boil it down, she couldn't win the primary (which is somewhat a reflection of the concentration we see on the right elsewhere). Ultimately she thinks she's so amazing that people will flock to her because people desperately want 'centrists'. And there is an audience for that. Unfortunately that audience apparently has not thought through what happens if they instead get a member of a radicalized national party. It's pure ridiculousness.

It's frustrating that we don't have more ranked choice voting in order to allow third party candidates to make their case without throwing elections to unpopular opposition candidates, but I just don't understand what she's trying to do.

I agree but even if we had it we probably don't have enough 'stable' election cycles left for people to understand how it works and change the dynamic. Democratic breakdown is happening now.

[Blackhawk]

The thing that makes telling people that a problem that already exists is growing is that all the 'evidence' they need is confirmation bias. When people start looking for a thing, they start seeing it more often. Even if it was there all along.

Six months ago (when I wasn't looking for them) I only saw one needle. This month (when people have told there are more, and I'm paying attention), I've seen three! Proof!

[Kurth]

It almost feels like it’s time to bring out the “You Callin’ Me a Liar?” GIF.

For pete's sake. Read it again then. I'm not calling you a liar. I'm saying you're being influenced by a barrage of negative stories about homelessness in the press.

Not furious. That liar GIF thing was meant as a joke (actually had a smiley emoji there, too, but deleted it because I've recently become self conscious about overusing emojis).

But, that said, you're still off base here. Way off base.

Seriously, I’m not sure how to react to your post. I’m telling you about what I’m actually seeing. Recently. In Portland. Where I live. And you seem to be diminishing or doubting that because what I’m telling you is aligned with what media sources have also reported? How does that make any sense?

Again read it and think about what I'm saying instead of just reacting. I'm not calling you out. Again another person in your community doesn't seem to think it is as bad as you're saying. I'm just showing you that I hear this story all the time in my area too. Many of us likely do. And the way you're reacting is exactly why they push this story. It works.

I'm not reacting to a story. I'm reacting to my first hand experiences. I'm reacting to the fact that businesses that have been in Portland forever are closing up and moving out of the city. I'm reacting to the fact that my company is going to have to close a store that's been open for decades - one with historical significance to us - because of a steady stream of grab-and-gos. People walk in, grab as much merchandise as they can, and walk out of the store. The losses due to theft are unreal and there is zero policing or prosecution.

I'm reacting to a lot of stuff. I'm not reacting to a hopped up GOP narrative.

The fact that what I’m telling you lines up with “the reusable widget for describing squalor” is because poop and needles on the streets are fucking gross and impactful, and people react to that when they see it. It leaves an indelible impression, and it absolutely says something about the state of the streets you are walking on.

Good lord. 7000 links to stories all over the country like this - I could slice and dice the time frames but it's a torrent. And when you repeat the literal language they all do it tells me you are reading those stories and are being influenced by them. That's all I'm saying. [/url]

I haven't read a single one of those stories. That's all I'm saying.

Honestly, if you’re going to tell me the crisis of homelessness and crime in Portland is not a thing, I don’t know what there is to say.

I'm not saying there aren't homeless. It's true of any city (for pretty much all human history). It is the idea that NOW when everything is falling apart this is somehow some dire crisis that happens to fall on one political party?! Come on. There is a clear case this is propaganda.[/url]

First, again, if you are doubting the severity of the current crisis in Portland, there's not much to talk about. I've been here since 2015. It was an issue when I first moved out here. People talked about it back then, and it has perpetually been the can that has been kicked down the road. The dual hit of COVID and the civil unrest following George Floyd just took it up to another degree.

I'm not an expert on the subject by any means, but my take is that much of the problem is a result of NIMBYism coupled with some terrible policy choices. The blame for the NIMBYism deserves to be spread far and wide, but the bad policy decisions - allowing tent encampment, catering to the homeless advocates who believe they have a right to "just be left alone," the refusal to dig in and force the police to do their job, the pendulum swinging back too far against "broken windows" policing - all that is aptly laid at the feet of our political leadership. And guess what? In Portland and OR generally, that has been one party, and it's not the GOP.

Calling this propaganda is, again, counter-factual.

It’s not the number one issue in the city right now because it’s a “fact-light political line meant to influence suburban women.” It’s the number one issue because it is impacting the entire city and the quality of lives of those who live in and around it and it is unavoidably obvious. To diminish the severity of the issue and point instead to a malicious GOP narrative is venturing into alternative facts territory.

I haven't said it isn't happening. I'm not saying there isn't a problem. I'm saying that it is being hopped up. I'm asking you to think about that point instead of just reacting with fury.

Again, not furious, but admittedly sensitive on this issue. Look, I don't disagree with you that Portland's (and other cities') issues been leveraged by shitty GOP strategists and politicians as representative of Democratic failure writ large. Should we be conscious of that? Of course.

But you are arguing against facts on the ground when you say that Portland's problems with crime and homelessness are "hopped up." From where I sit, that looks like a partisan knee-jerk reaction.

[malchior]

I haven't read a single one of those stories. That's all I'm saying.

You used the exact language they all do and have for years. This isn't some new thing. I'll use your tactic here. If you think you aren't being influenced then I don't know what to say to you.

First, again, if you are doubting the severity of the current crisis in Portland, there's not much to talk about. I've been here since 2015. It was an issue when I first moved out here. People talked about it back then, and it has perpetually been the can that has been kicked down the road. The dual hit of COVID and the civil unrest following George Floyd just took it up to another degree.

I'm not an expert on the subject by any means, but my take is that much of the problem is a result of NIMBYism coupled with some terrible policy choices. The blame for the NIMBYism deserves to be spread far and wide, but the bad policy decisions - allowing tent encampment, catering to the homeless advocates who believe they have a right to "just be left alone," the refusal to dig in and force the police to do their job, the pendulum swinging back too far against "broken windows" policing - all that is aptly laid at the feet of our political leadership. And guess what? In Portland and OR generally, that has been one party, and it's not the GOP.

Calling this propaganda is, again, counter-factual.

These are pretty adjacent to current right-wing talking points that are being barraged on us in my market...and many markets. They are being megaphoned by media outlets at a rate of 10-15 stories a day across various markets. Some of them have some level of merit and line up to real quality of life issues -- which is why they resonate. And what I'm saying ultimately that it's pretty hard to filter the merit from the meritless but the narratives always win when they intersect with emotion. And that's what I'm seeing here. Lots of emotion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's what I see.

Again, not furious, but admittedly sensitive on this issue. Look, I don't disagree with you that Portland's (and other cities') issues been leveraged by shitty GOP strategists and politicians as representative of Democratic failure writ large. Should we be conscious of that? Of course.

But you are arguing against facts on the ground when you say that Portland's problems with crime and homelessness are "hopped up." From where I sit, that looks like a partisan knee-jerk reaction.

When I say hopped up, I mean the level is being exaggerated for political benefit. Also, I'm not partisan. I'm not defending the Democrats in Portland or anywhere. In fact I think they're generally terrible - I thought I've made that clear over time. IMO they've stood by helplessly watching the media landscape turn into this disinformation officer's paradise. In many ways they enabled it by allowing so much media consolidation. Anyway, if I'm on a team it is the anti-disinformation one. Unfortunately, there aren't enough people on the team to stop the disaster we face.

In any case, you keep essentially saying your viewpoint is based on "on the ground facts" and again I still have to point there are differing opinions about how true this is. You seem to be outright dismissing alternative reads while you admit you are sensitive to it. I'm just saying think about where this is coming from.

Anyway, my last point on this. Please step back and look at what I've argued objectively. I never argued once that there isn't a problem. Maybe even a bad one. I'm just saying I see certainty and emotion that seemingly has roots out in the disinformation sphere. Which only works when it is something that is somewhat accurate. If you were seeing clean streets everywhere it wouldn't work. Right now -- especially now in the middle of another highly consequential election season -- is the time to be skeptical and less certain about the "truths" we think are informing our political analyses or voting decisions.

[Kurth]

Anyway, my last point on this. Please step back and look at what I've argued objectively. I never argued once that there isn't a problem. Maybe even a bad one. I'm just saying I see certainty and emotion that seemingly has roots out in the disinformation sphere. Which only works when it is something that is somewhat accurate. If you were seeing clean streets everywhere it wouldn't work. Right now -- especially now in the middle of another highly consequential election season -- is the time to be skeptical and less certain about the "truths" we think are informing our political analyses or voting decisions.

You seem to me to be talking in circles. You agree that homelessness is a problem, a bad one even. But, somehow, talking about how bad the homelessness crisis is amounts to "disinformation" and "propaganda."

Sometimes there's a real need for skepticism. Often it's merited. Sometimes (e.g., skepticism in climate change, election results . . . the severity of the homelessness crisis in Portland), it's just not.

[Alefroth]

I've got several friends that have lived in Portland for over 20 years and claim the situation is being overblown.

Maybe they've seen it change so gradually over time that they don't notice what it looks like to someone just seeing it anew.

[Alefroth]

Seattle has gone through this too. Several years ago a news station aired a documentary called Seattle is Dying, and the conservatives grabbed it and ran with it, and amplified it until it became their reality. It's now nearly impossible to have any reasoned discussion of the issues.