Too early to think about 2022?

[RunningMn9]

I think the Dems lose both. Darkness will descend.

[LordMortis]

+1 Let us be wrong.

[Jaymann]

Beau has an interesting take on money for senate races:

[Kraken]

Prediction:

The Democrats will win the Senate and hold on to their majority in the House.

Discuss!

I think the Dems can gain 1-2 Senate seats.

The House was supposed to be a red wave. If the Dems can hold it to a ripple, that's a win. Momentum is in their favor at the moment, but they still have a lot of time left to blow it. I'll be very surprised if they come out on top.

I want to believe that independent voters will punish the GOP's stampede to trumpland. I want to believe that Americans still value democracy. I am not confident in either of those propositions.

[El Guapo]

FWIW the 538 model has the democrats now with a 22% chance of holding the House, up from 13% a month ago. Still very unlikely, although trending in the right direction.

One other question is that there's some indication from the last few election that polling has had a hard time reaching certain parts of the Republican base, leading to some GOP overperformance vs. polling. Is that going to happen again in 2022, when Trump isn't on the ballot? What is the effect of Dobbs going to be on low propensity democratic vs. republican voters?

[Kraken]

Aye, Dobbs is the wild card. And we have several more economic reports to get through. Dems have a brighter future if inflation continues to look tamer, gas prices keep falling or at least stabilize, the markets don't tank again, and employment numbers remain solid. It always comes down to the economy in the end.

[Octavious]

I certainly don't think Trump helped by pushing some really crappy people through the primaries. Dr. Oz looks like he's going to get murdered in PA. And there are more than a few other places where it can cost them. The big downside to that is the people that do end up winning which will be more than a few. If we hold the senate and hold the Gov in PA we might not be 100% screwed. Well in the immediate future.

[hepcat]

Dr. Oz looks like he's going to get murdered in PA.

It's his own damn fault for bringing crudités to a gun fight.

[Octavious]

He is running such a bad campaign. You would think someone that has been in the media as much as he has would handle it better. In other positive news the PA Gov race currently heavily favors the dems. We would be in such a world of hurt if the other dude won.

I'm actually feeling a bit more positive lately. If you look at say Kansas they had a YUGE turnout for the primary because people wanted to vote on abortion. I think it was an epic fail for them to kill Roe. They didn't do that and it would have been a total landslide.

[Unagi]

It's his own damn fault for bringing crudités to a gun fight. veggie tray party

I think that’s more on point.

[hepcat]

It's like watching Thurston Howell the 3rd trying to connect with the common people.

[Unagi]

And that’s not even including the tequila!

[El Guapo]

The thing is that no one on the staff apparently set him straight about the crudite ad. So either he's got a bunch of other rich clueless people working for him, or he sets a culture of fear in his campaign staff. Or both.

[LordMortis]

I think it was an epic fail for them to kill Roe.

As sad as it is, I think the only hope for our republic was the killing of Roe. We'll see how if/long it keeps the people motivated to try and keep from our republic from collapsing.

Imagine if they waited until after the 2022 election before killing Roe. How the table would be set.

Also, I had to look up crudité Who just doesn't say vegetable (veggie) tray/platter? I've never heard anyone use that term. I'm so uncultured.

[YellowKing]

The only slim sliver of hope (and I do mean SLIM) is that stuff like Roe wakes the sleepwalkers out of their slumber. We have the overwhelming numbers to stop this madness, we just need people to take it seriously.

[Octavious]

If we can hold the senate for now I think there's still hope. And it's looking like it really could happen thanks to Trump being a total f'n moron.

Waiting for my brother to chime in with how wrong I am. He must be super busy today.

[Holman]

He is running such a bad campaign. You would think someone that has been in the media as much as he has would handle it better. In other positive news the PA Gov race currently heavily favors the dems. We would be in such a world of hurt if the other dude won.

I'm actually feeling a bit more positive lately. If you look at say Kansas they had a YUGE turnout for the primary because people wanted to vote on abortion. I think it was an epic fail for them to kill Roe. They didn't do that and it would have been a total landslide.

It's hilarious that Trump picked Oz and carried him through the primary, all because Oz is a TV star and Trump thinks TV stars are winners.

Mastriano, meanwhile, won the nomination on the basis of sheer hard-right MAGA/QAnon/Christian-Nationalist insanity, and his refusal to allow regular media anywhere near his events is actually pissing them off enough to forgo the usual horse-race narrative. Every story about him is "What is he hiding?"

Mastriano (a former state senator) is running a small-local hard-Red campaign in a clearly Purple state.

It's Fetterman who's carrying the narrative, of course. Every time he appears with Shapiro (the Dem Gov candidate), Shapiro's numbers go up. (Shapiro will be a good Governor, but he's a traditional Dem running in a decidedly non-traditional time and race.)

[Kurth]

Any recent updates on Fetterman’s health? My only real concern . . .

[malchior]

Any recent updates on Fetterman’s health? My only real concern . . .

He's actively campaigning but he has been acknowledging the reality that he had a close call. The strategy they are using is smart considering this issue would easily sink another campaign. He is framing it up as a poverty issue. He is saying he might not have survived if he was in rural areas such as Erie instead of near a first class stroke center. Badically an appeal that he wants to improve access to health care in poorer areas.

They've also been waging a meme campaign about Oz's wealth and Jersey residency that actually seems to be moving the needle.

[Carpet_pissr]

Any recent updates on Fetterman’s health? My only real concern . . .

He is saying he might not have survived if he was in rural areas such as Erie instead of near a first class stroke center.

Brilliant.

[Kurth]

Any recent updates on Fetterman’s health? My only real concern . . .

He's actively campaigning but he has been acknowledging the reality that he had a close call. The strategy they are using is smart considering this issue would easily sink another campaign. He is framing it up as a poverty issue. He is saying he might not have survived if he was in rural areas such as Erie instead of near a first class stroke center. Badically an appeal that he wants to improve access to health care in poorer areas.

They've also been waging a meme campaign about Oz's wealth and Jersey residency that actually seems to be moving the needle.

Oh, the Oz from NJ thing is first rate. I’ve been following that closely, and Fetterman has been killing him.

I’m just worried about reports that Fetterman’s speech is still slurred. I guess have very little faith that voters are not shallow, superficial idiots who will fall hook line and sinker if the GOP starts going after Fetterman for any perceived/imagined/fabricated impairment post-stroke.

[Carpet_pissr]

Any recent updates on Fetterman’s health? My only real concern . . .

He's actively campaigning but he has been acknowledging the reality that he had a close call. The strategy they are using is smart considering this issue would easily sink another campaign. He is framing it up as a poverty issue. He is saying he might not have survived if he was in rural areas such as Erie instead of near a first class stroke center. Badically an appeal that he wants to improve access to health care in poorer areas.

They've also been waging a meme campaign about Oz's wealth and Jersey residency that actually seems to be moving the needle.

Oh, the Oz from NJ thing is first rate. I’ve been following that closely, and Fetterman has been killing him.

I’m just worried about reports that Fetterman’s speech is still slurred. I guess have very little faith that voters are not shallow, superficial idiots who will fall hook line and sinker if the GOP starts going after Fetterman for any perceived/imagined/fabricated impairment post-stroke.

IS his speech slurred?

[Kurth]

Any recent updates on Fetterman’s health? My only real concern . . .

He's actively campaigning but he has been acknowledging the reality that he had a close call. The strategy they are using is smart considering this issue would easily sink another campaign. He is framing it up as a poverty issue. He is saying he might not have survived if he was in rural areas such as Erie instead of near a first class stroke center. Badically an appeal that he wants to improve access to health care in poorer areas.

They've also been waging a meme campaign about Oz's wealth and Jersey residency that actually seems to be moving the needle.

Oh, the Oz from NJ thing is first rate. I’ve been following that closely, and Fetterman has been killing him.

I’m just worried about reports that Fetterman’s speech is still slurred. I guess have very little faith that voters are not shallow, superficial idiots who will fall hook line and sinker if the GOP starts going after Fetterman for any perceived/imagined/fabricated impairment post-stroke.

IS his speech slurred?

Apparently, at least as of late July.

[Holman]

The Oz Senior Communications adviser then doubled down:



Apparently she forgot that (1) an apple is not a vegetable and (2) the phrase ends with "...keeps the doctor away."

Asshole.

[pr0ner]

[Kurth]

Also, she's like a baby. Is she even in her late 20s?

[Skinypupy]

That was uncomfortably close for a minute

[Unagi]

And a REALLY BIG congrats to those that voted for Gavriel Soriano - who saw the other two as being equally valid alternatives to Gavriel Soriano.

I give a big FUCK YOU to everyone that voted for Gavriel Soriano.

[Grifman]

Prediction:

The Democrats will win the Senate and hold on to their majority in the House.

Discuss!

[Zarathud]

Does Oz really think branding Federman a meat eater is going to play well for him in Pennsylvania?

It's the place of cheesesteak, hoagies, pork sandwiches, pretzels, and other unhealthy foods.

Oz always was an idiot.

[Grifman]

[Isgrimnur]

And a REALLY BIG congrats to those that voted for Gavriel Soriano - who saw the other two as being equally valid alternatives to Gavriel Soriano.

I give a big FUCK YOU to everyone that voted for Gavriel Soriano.

[malchior]

Charlie Crist is off to a good start.

[Jaymann]

Why would they vote for him?

[Unagi]

/shrug

It’s the message that matters.

And clearly it’s a way to perhaps shame the (R) voters that don’t have hate in their heart that have watched what their (R) vote translates to.

I.e. If you don’t have hate in your heart and regret ever voting for DeSantis, then you are clearly OK to vote for Crist

His use of the word ‘support’ can mean currently or also to those that once tossed a vote to DeSantis.

Obviously, as you say, those that currently truly support DeSantis won’t be voting for Crist

[Unagi]

Like I could try to inspire my kids on a road trip they don’t want to go on.

“Those of you that don’t want to do anything or go anywhere, I don’t want you on this road trip. If you lack any sense of adventure and have no desire to see the Grand Canyon, I’d rather you just spend your summer break sitting on the couch where you are most happy.”

[Jaymann]

That makes some sense. I was wondering if it was some machiavellian: vote for this guy so that guy won't get elected.

[malchior]

Starting off your campaign by sticking you finger right in the divide or not even trying to win people over is not historically a winning play.

[El Guapo]

Starting off your campaign by sticking you finger right in the divide or not even trying to win people over is not historically a winning play.

Yeah I agree. I think that there is some value in rebuking specific extremist groups (e.g., "I don't want your support if you are a Nazi"), but saying "I don't want your vote if you support my opponent", is not a great strategy when you ar ... trying to win over some of the people who support your opponent. Especially when DeSantis, you know, got a majority of the vote the last time he ran for governor.

[Unagi]

‘Hate in your heart’ isn’t enough like ‘Nazi’ you think ?