Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

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malchior
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:32 am
Why should I trust that you are smarter than the actual experts who say it is happening right now?
I'm not asking you to trust me. I'm just stating an opinion. You do you, man.
Sigh. What I was asking was what informs your opinion. I was pointing at the mountain of evidence and saying - what contravenes that? And then we have the rest of the post where you sort of don't have much evidence. At least evidence that says what you think it does.
Little Raven wrote:
What indicators of a return to normal are there versus indicators that the dysfunction is progressing?
I think you and I have different baselines of "normal." You seem to think there was some enlightened past where everyone in America got along and worked together for the common good of the country. Everyone was treated equally, every voice was listened to, and politics consisted of a wise electorate carefully picking candidates from a slate of enlightened statesmen.
This is not true. Normal doesn't mean the above. A glimpse into the type of anti-normal I think about here looks like the trajectory of the graph below.

Enlarge Image
The American history I know suggests no such thing has ever existed. We have been a bitterly divided nation barely holding things together for the vast bulk of our history. Our record of democracy is distinctly spotty. Our historical commitment to social justice is questionable. And for every Lincoln, we get any number of Boss Tweeds. But we're still here.
You keep saying this. What about our history looks anything like this moment? There simply isn't one. I'm not disagreeing with the concept but I frankly think that any reliance on past performance to model the present is a super dubious affair in this moment.
LIttle Raven wrote:
So I post a link to an article about actual US general published in the Washington Post about these concerns and I'm supposed to take the above seriously? Come on.
Retired generals are not necessarily authorities on...well, much of anything. And historically, we've had no shortage of retired generals who predicted or even actively caused trouble. We survived.
This bolsters my case. You are comparing 3 generals who talked about facts including more than 10% of the 1/6 rioters had service backgrounds, more that were cops, and pointing out at least one General publicly ignoring Presidential orders, and compared it to a bunch of generals pimping the big lie? First the two groups are not analogous or a reasonable comparison by any standard. Second they specifically called out these 124 generals referenced in the Politico piece. Third, as they argue persuasively (especially compared to completely irrelevant nonsense about MacArthur) the weight of this is actual real-world evidence for the problems I'm pointing at. The 'civil war' or splinter army scenario we face would be an insurgency. A hundred generals and potentially tens of thousands of service members would be a hell of a problem if an insurgency were to kick into action as those 3 generals were describing. As far as I know we've never had over a hundred generals saying the President is illegitimate with some prominent ones promising people that Trump would be re-installed. That's the problem. Again I ask, what is the evidence that we don't have a massive problem? Right now?
Little Raven wrote:
You can try to handwave it away but the facts are that oligarchic power has solidly aligned behind the Republicans *right now*.
No, it hasn't.
Read the Forbes piece again. You just bolstered my case *again*.
Forbes wrote:The biggest takeaway: These billionaires are more likely to be Republican than the average American—but just about as likely to be voting for Joe Biden.
An election is a point in time decision. General support isn't undermined because they picked a Democrat over a Republican for one office. Especially considering the circumstances. I don't think they are part of the cult. I think they generally follow their interests. This is pretty easy to decompose. Would most top of these business leaders vote for a stable Republican leader if available? Since they are Republicans the answer is self evident; however their choice was Trump. They almost certainly feared his grift and the instability he represented. Also they got nearly all their big ticket policy goals accomplished. The question becomes what was there to fear in a Biden. Isn't Biden a staid centrist who has been a middle of road political figure and pretty reliable ally for wealth for decades? Yes. Was he running on a platform they probably weren't thrilled with? Yes but he wasn't talking about crazy tax hikes. Especially tax hikes that'd wash away what they got from the Trump WH. They knew what they were getting in Biden.

And as the Forbes piece details the ultra wealthy still tend to be Republicans at the end of the day. They still cheer the decades of policy achievements their class has won to get low individual tax rates, low corporate tax rates, etc. They control the vast majority of laws passed by Congress. I've cited it many times here but we have evidence that backs through lensing actual policy passed through Congress and other means that we are a corrupt oligarchy. From the abstract:
Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism.
Anyone seriously want to argue that ain't true in these United States of America? All of that has influenced wealth inequality which adds more pressure to our system.

That study looked back from 2014. 2 years later Trump was elected and the oligarchs feasted. As a reference some of the authors published another study in 2011 that started that train and Krugman has a good summation of the issues that arise out of some of that pool of research.

And sure we've had periods where wealth inequality were an issue and it worked out. But again this isn't a one thing is going wrong problem. This is a many things are going wrong problem. The negative destabilizing societal pressures we are seeing are leading to instability in policy (except the policy that keeps the rich rich but no shock there) and increasing political violence. The weight of all these issues are overwhelming this system right now. Not in the far, far future. Right now. And I'm not even diving into the golden age of fraud stuff which indicates deep pools of corruption around this issue in Congress and the past WH. Heck there is evidence of corruption by the wealthy influencing the topic of the thread.
Little Raven wrote:Billionaires, like Americans, are all over the place when it comes to politics. But it is true that the wealthy in America have a preferred political party.
FWIW I have little faith that this polling looks anything like what the billionaires with actual influence think. I can't say for certain because we don't have a good poll of just billionaires. Though it is a problem the study above tackles by inference. It's hard to detect their direct influence but we have great circumstantial evidence that policy almost always breaks their way. And that policy is almost always conservative policy.

The "wealthy" in the piece above are generally educated and professional people. They belong to a relatively small group with almost no influence beyond having a vote and tending to vote. But that's not too abnormal because everyone else below them in the wealth and income distribution have almost no influence either (based on the policy analysis above as one example). The thing is the larger group being less educated is much more manipulable. They are being overwhelmed with misinformation at all times. A well-known oligarch of a Conservative bent is notably involved there.

More interesting,the 400 or so families that Krugman mentioned in his piece who contribute the majority of campaign contributions have far, far, far more direct influence.

I'll finish by pointing that out you pretty much ignored the heart of the post to attack around the edges by focusing on first and last sections such as the word normal. (Yet still managed to help out my case in the end. Thanks!) I'd still love to see anything approaching a significant body of evidence indicating that things are not trending towards more dysfunction. It'd be a real relief but I'm still not seeing a whole lot of disagreeing on the merits and more disagreeing to disagree or just flawed reasoning.
malchior wrote:The difference is that I don't think we are disagreeing based on the merits. You handwave the trend that is happening right now and say it is far off in the far future? Why should I trust that you are smarter than the actual experts who say it is happening right now?

Let's examine some of the evidence our constitutional order is breaking down right now. We had a President who was openly breaking the law. An entire administration full of members breaking various laws. Experts talked about how he completely perverted the DOJ and undermined confidence in its independence. He also attacked every guardrail beating at the walls. They mostly contained him but still he was criming frequently. He then claimed a fair election was stolen and invited his entire party to join in delegitimizing an election. And they did and are still hammering on it to delegitimize the lawful President. Major GOP figures still won't acknowledge that Biden was legitimately elected. This all happened...this year. Oh and a little thing called the Capitol riot and its aftermath. Despite that several individual officials were the difference between his plans and a full blown constitutional crisis. We also had the indignity of generals calling foreign leaders to reassure them that we'd have continuity of leadership. Totally solid stuff.

On the outside we have forces that threaten our constitutional order indirectly. We have attacks on our critical infrastructure that have gone largely unanswered for years. We can't coordinate against them to protect ourselves. We had a pandemic which piled on more pressure on a failing system and let's be frank...things aren't going well there. We have national and international policy flapping in 4 year increments *right now*. Our partners are openly freaking out that Trump might return and are drawing up plans to figure out how they'll protect themselves if that happens. Even then, during the Afghanistan disaster, we reminded them that our broken internal politics have direct impacts on them. I'll stop there but I'm only scratching the surface.

Even if all that wasn't an indication of crisis then why isn't it a blatant warning sign? This isn't so much on disagreeing sharply as there is a mountain of evidence showing our system is breaking down in real time and you have feelings. Still I'll pick up one thread. You acknowledge that the system could fail in the way described but feel like it's far, far away. Let's get specific. Why is it far, far away and not now? What is the evidence of that? What indicators of a return to normal are there versus indicators that the dysfunction is progressing?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Data shows that Mamchin and every member of the GOP will be responsible for children going hungry in the upcoming weeks. For Manchin it aligns with lining his own pockets. A corrupt pile of shit. I have nothing but contempt for him.



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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:08 am
Disagree heartily that (implied ‘most’?) people have to be starving in order for a Republic to end.
It's not absolutely necessary, but boy does it help. Honestly I'm not aware of any historical precedent for a country as wealthy as ours just simultaneously combusting. The closest I can think of is maybe Europe right before WW1, but there are some obvious issues with that comparison.
“The political rot also extended to the Roman Senate, which failed to temper the excesses of the emperors due to its own widespread corruption and incompetence. As the situation worsened, civic pride waned and many Roman citizens lost trust in their leadership.“
I loves me a good Rome comparison, but I'm not sure what angle you're going for with this one. This is talking about the fall of the Roman Empire, which was a very different thing than the Roman Republic, which would seem to be our obvious counterpart at this stage of our history. (I mean this honestly. You can draw some truly scary parallels between our current situation and the Crisis if you have a mind to) After all, if Mal is right, then we're about to sleep walk our way into autocracy and really kick start our Imperial phase. (Unlike poor Ceaser -he had to EARN his autocracy several times over.) By this point in Roman history, civil war was a pretty much ongoing affair, starvation was rife, and the Empire saw violent changes of leadership (with the appropriate purges) several times a decade.

I know things are bad in America these days, but they're not quite THAT bad.
Thanks, that led me down an hour long rabbit hole about The Crisis. :P And yeah, some scary parallels there. "Plague" not being the least of them.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Daehawk »

Well he just lost that excuse. Closeted Republican he is.

Coal miners' union urges Manchin to reconsider opposition to Biden plan
The United Mine Workers of America (UMWA), which represents West Virginia coal miners, urged Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday to revisit his opposition to President Biden's Build Back Better plan.

The labor union noted that the bill includes an extension of a fund that provides benefits to coal miners suffering from black lung disease, which expires at the end of the year. The UMWA also touted tax incentives that encourage manufacturers to build facilities in coalfields that would employ thousands of miners who lost their jobs.

“For those and other reasons, we are disappointed that the bill will not pass,” Cecil Roberts, the union’s president, said in a statement. “We urge Senator Manchin to revisit his opposition to this legislation and work with his colleagues to pass something that will help keep coal miners working, and have a meaningful impact on our members, their families, and their communities.”
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Little Raven »

malchior wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:17 amI was pointing at the mountain of evidence and saying - what contravenes that?
Historical patterns. America has always been a land of many problems - often much more severe than what we're seeing now. And we remain obscenely wealthy by historical standards. This is not fertile ground for revolution, though of course it's not impossible.

I realize this is meaningless to you. You have little use for the past, and actively scorn anyone who looks to it. And I understand why - for you, the future is well-illuminated country. Events proceed along predictable fault lines to foreseeable conclusions, as informed by legions of infallible experts. If I possessed that level of prescience, I would probably distain history as well. Alas, I do not. For me, the future is a dark and murky maelstrom of colliding forces, behaving in ways that are impossible to predict even if they are easy to diagnose in hindsight, with a generous helping of Black Swan events thrown in to boot.
What about our history looks anything like this moment?
Pretty much any time from 1877 to the 1920s? A bitterly divided nation with elections decided by razor thin margins? Rampant political violence? A constant stream of conspiracy theories about stolen elections and the fast approaching end of democracy? We are not so unique as we imagine.
So I post a link to an article about actual US general published in the Washington Post about these concerns and I'm supposed to take the above seriously? Come on.
Oh, you've made it quite clear you don't take me seriously. Which kind of makes discussions like this pointless. A certain level of mutual respect is necessary for anything beyond shouting matches.
Again I ask, what is the evidence that we don't have a massive problem? Right now?
Of course we have massive problems. We always massive problems. Massive problems are kind of the human condition.

But I don't think we are staring at the end of the Constitutional order. At least not in the near term. I'm sure you disagree.
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malchior
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:07 am
malchior wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:17 amI was pointing at the mountain of evidence and saying - what contravenes that?
Historical patterns. America has always been a land of many problems - often much more severe than what we're seeing now. And we remain obscenely wealthy by historical standards. This is not fertile ground for revolution, though of course it's not impossible.

I realize this is meaningless to you. You have little use for the past, and actively scorn anyone who looks to it.
Who said revolution? You don't even understand my arguments but you presume to know my thoughts!? Enough with stuffing words into my mouth. I don't scorn historians. It's crazy that I literally talk about all the time about experts - people all schooled in the history of authoritarianism or the military or whatever their specialty is - and say I actively scorn them when I am relying on them?!
And I understand why - for you, the future is well-illuminated country. Events proceed along predictable fault lines to foreseeable conclusions, as informed by legions of infallible experts. If I possessed that level of prescience, I would probably distain history as well.
It isn't prescience. It is listening to the experts who have seen authoritarianism rise in other countries and say this is happening here. I never said this is predictable. Note that I said that the 2-4 years is a critical period (and there are a lot of much smarter folks than us who are saying this). Though I also said it might go a different way and push the crisis off further. If you were to go back and read what I *actually say* instead of what you *think I say*, I deliberately speak in probability language. It isn't being weaselly. It is an honest way to speak about the future. That you take it for any level of certainty again is pure hologram on your part.
What about our history looks anything like this moment?
Pretty much any time from 1877 to the 1920s? A bitterly divided nation with elections decided by razor thin margins? Rampant political violence? A constant stream of conspiracy theories about stolen elections and the fast approaching end of democracy? We are not so unique as we imagine.
One big problem is that you don't get how silly this argument is. But it is especially weak when you talk in broad strokes instead of something carefully constructed. That isn't surprising if you think the future is always unpredictable. It essentially ignores that the future is built by what we do now. And what we do now is informed by our understanding of the past and adapting. Perhaps I'm wrong and my hologram of you is that you are someone living in the past and completely unable to comprehend the now but that is what I see.
So I post a link to an article about actual US general published in the Washington Post about these concerns and I'm supposed to take the above seriously? Come on.
Oh, you've made it quite clear you don't take me seriously. Which kind of makes discussions like this pointless. A certain level of mutual respect is necessary for anything beyond shouting matches.
Maybe true but it is because it is hard to have a discussion when someone is just not grounded in factual discourse when the other person is talking about vague philosophical concepts. As a prime example, since it is only a few posts up, the 'generals thing' is that is a prime example of the sort of response I see.

To decompose it, I offered up an 'expert witness' of sorts - 3 generals who wrote an oped in a major publication talking about their specific worries about trends they saw in service members participating in extremist activity. One supported by actual facts. You tried to counter it by rolling out the lazy 'experts can be wrong' trope as if that somehow usually has any balance. Unfortunately for your argument, you pointed at an absurd example of a group of generals saying wacky QAnon things. Worse the 3 generals cited those QAnon generals amongst!

So I point it out and yet still here you are still *ignoring* that mistake. Additionally, I keep piling on more evidence which you walk right past to make sweeping points about the unknowable nature of the future, the turbulent nature of the past, and go right back on the attack. That's why I can't take you seriously in a nutshell.
But I don't think we are staring at the end of the Constitutional order. At least not in the near term. I'm sure you disagree.
And I'll say it again. Whatever comes next very well might look like our 'constitutional order'. Heck I'm counting on it. Our constitutional order is THE PROBLEM. It is increasingly looking like it collapses into a unique form of anti-majoritarian authoritarianism. We very well might find this out first hand in the next few years. Still I take this as more evidence you just aren't getting it.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Zarathud »

There is no empirical evidence of the future. It hasn’t happened yet. It is not fact.

Don’t overstate your case. There are risks. The risk may be high. Donald Trump and his follower are a massive liability. But there is no certainty or inevitability about the collapse of American democracy. Pundits and generals in 1999 predicted the triumph of democracy in the new millennium. They were wrong. During the Clinton years, the predictions were about the end of scarcity in the New Economy after the internet. They were wrong.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Zarathud wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:06 pm There is no empirical evidence of the future. It hasn’t happened yet. It is not fact.
Never said it was. Having a strong opinion does not say that this will absolutely happen or happen exactly this way.
Don’t overstate your case. There are risks. The risk may be high.
And I'll say it sure looks like you're part of the group absolutely handwaving the risk. May be high? The risks are extremely high.

Edit: On the evidence front for extremely high risk, I'll offer that we had a coup attempt...this year. A sitting President unleashed a mob on the democratic transfer of power. His own children and political allies pleaded with him to help and he did nothing. To date nothing has happened to said man. They then went to work covering up the crime. He is now their assumed front runner for his entire political party at the moment. May be high?! If I sound exasperated it Is because I don't understand how people believe that we aren't facing a crisis when we are in the middle of the crisis.
Donald Trump and his follower are a massive liability. But there is no certainty or inevitability about the collapse of American democracy.
It isn't inevitable but there is absolutely a loud consensus. It's also obvious to anyone paying attention to what is happening right now. We have extremely big challenges with our democracy and we're trending towards increasing the problem. All I'm looking for is any hint that the trend is wrong. Yet all I'm hearing is handwaving. It's tedious because again there is this mountain of evidence. And on the other side we have broad unfocused argumentation like 'people have been wrong in the past'. It's just silly argumentation. You think different. Great. Prove it is predictive in any way.
Pundits and generals in 1999 predicted the triumph of democracy in the new millennium. They were wrong. During the Clinton years, the predictions were about the end of scarcity in the New Economy after the internet. They were wrong.
Some people got the direction wrong therefore this is wrong is just weak analysis. The conditions looked good up until a huge terrorist attack you might have heard about 2 years later and 10 trillion dollars wasted on wars in the desert. Also that is a big part about why we're on the path.

Edit 2: It also follows that conditions might positively change on a dime too but that seems decidedly more unlikely. Also it isn't too tough to analyze the situation in 1999 and recognize that terrorism was a known risk that wasn't treated appropriately. Contrasting that with the situation now, there isn't anything on the horizon that indicates that the negative external and internal pressures that are driving these issues are doing anything but increasing right now. We have tons of experts now pointing at the risks and nothing is being done to address them. It is a recipe for disaster. And the idea that experts get things wrong discounts years of expertise far too greatly. But then again I have little doubt this is more of a feelings based assessment versus a genuine assessment of risk.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Our particular brand of representative democracy has always been fragile as hell, and of course the founders knew this. It's almost as if we have just been SUPER lucky since the founding that it hasn't come off the rails more than it has (or more than once). We bend a LOT...we broke once. Considering the fragility of the whole system, I would not be surprised if we break again.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:52 pm Our particular brand of representative democracy has always been fragile as hell, and of course the founders knew this. It's almost as if we have just been SUPER lucky since the founding that it hasn't come off the rails more than it has (or more than once). We bend a LOT...we broke once. Considering the fragility of the whole system, I would not be surprised if we break again.
What's most ironic to me is this love of the past when objective measures around Democracy didn't even really consider us a liberal democracy until the Civil Rights Act was passed. Since then our main risk was backsliding. We resisted it strongly even if we still had issues around equal rights in reality. If someone argued we'd backslide into something less open but remain stable I could buy that. It's entirely possible. And is still on the table.

However, we're also seeing a lot of other issues cropping up at the same time. The most pressing issue is that outside our monetary/fiscal union which probably is doing the most lifting stability wise, we've essentially become ungovernable for years now. We're getting battered by crisis after crisis. And the pandemic has exposed that our problems are much deeper than people seemingly want to face.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Little Raven wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:41 pm Plus, it's not like we prevent people from moving to Wyoming. If you REALLY care about your Senate representation, well, Cheyenne is ready to welcome you. Just 200,000 Democrats moving to that state (less than 1/2 of 1 percent of registered Democrats nationwide) would turn it solid blue in perpetuity, but nobody is doing that because honestly its not worth the effort. Which should tell you something about the relative value of Senate representation.
Nice try, but MJT has a plan for that-

https://www.sfgate.com/national-politic ... 738644.php
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I can't believe this is somehow still a story.

Washington Post
The week before Christmas, Sen. Joe Manchin III sent the White House a $1.8 trillion counteroffer to President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda that included substantial funds for climate, health-care and education initiatives.

About four weeks later, the West Virginia Democrat has made clear that he does not currently support advancing even that offer following a breakdown in negotiations between Manchin and the White House right before Christmas, three people with knowledge of the matter said.

Manchin said publicly this week that he was no longer involved in talks with the White House over the economic package. Privately, he has also made clear that he is not interested in approving legislation resembling Biden’s Build Back Better package and that Democrats should fundamentally rethink their approach. Senior Democrats say they do not believe Manchin would support his offer even if the White House tried adopting it in full — at least not at the moment — following the fallout in mid-December. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Negotiations deteriorated quickly in December after a White House news release named Manchin as the obstacle to passing the legislation. Manchin then surprised the administration by criticizing the bill on Fox News, after which the White House released a blistering statement calling his credibility into question. Manchin, who has drawn protesters’ ire because of his opposition to the legislation, later said the decision to name him in the news release imperiled the safety of his family.

The White House has continued to project optimism that it will eventually secure Manchin’s vote and approval of a major economic plan by Congress. And Manchin’s $1.8 trillion counteroffer suggested that much common ground between the two sides remained on the policy substance. He said in recent days that he supports much of the administration’s climate agenda, for example.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I don't think that Manchin is feeling much pressure here. He has an easy off-ramp from the union pressure. First he is an owner (bullshit blind trust or not) and he'd have to vote against his own interests. And he has a great case for going independent or GOP anyway.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I am flabbergasted that Manchin is acting this way. Oh I meant Manchin is 100% snake.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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He later added that he'd REALLY like to see "the world, united as one, and in complete harmony" before he signs something.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:30 pm He later added that he'd REALLY like to see "the world, united as one, and in complete harmony" before he signs something.
Also, the Lions winning the Super Bowl, Pirates the World Series, and Yotes the Stanley Cup. In the same year.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »

I know y'all are going to be surprised


BREAKING: Manchin tells Dem leaders that climate, tax hikes OUT of ever-shrinking economic package. Deficit reduction, prescription drug reform & ACA subsidies believed still in play
Worth recapping just how much has fallen out since this all started:

❌Universal prek
❌Childcare
❌Public housing
❌Paid family leave
❌Dental, vision care for seniors
❌Free community college
❌Child Tax Credit
❌Climate plans

& a lot of other stuff I cant even remember now
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »

For those inclined to read news:
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and his staff told Democratic leadership on Thursday that he's not willing to support major climate and tax provisions in a sweeping Biden agenda bill, according to a Democrat briefed on the conversations.

Instead, the key centrist who holds the swing vote in the 50-50 Senate said he is only willing to back a filibuster-proof economic bill with drug pricing and a two-year extension of funding under the Affordable Care Act, the source said.

...

Manchin's move upends lengthy negotiations with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., likely forcing the party to scrap climate change policies and new taxes, delivering a major blow to some of President Joe Biden's priorities heading into an already challenging midterm election landscape for Democrats this fall.

Manchin "was explicit that he will not support a bill in August" with energy or climate provisions or on "closing tax loopholes exploited by the wealthiest" and large corporations, "despite his support for those specific things throughout the entire negotiation," said the Democrat briefed on the discussions.

Democrats are hoping to pass a bill before September to prevent major insurance premium hikes under the Affordable Care Act that could be difficult to avert if they don't act quickly.
And of course he waited to reveal all this until Biden was out of the country. Because Manchin is a complete ass clown.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Sigh, this fucking guy… :grund:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Remember how he bristled when the White House outed him as a fraud at the beginning of the year? He hasn't changed. This is who he is. He is every bit the epitome of the vile and disgusting plutocrats we have running our government.
Last edited by malchior on Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Can publications that presume to be taken seriously *please* stop referring to politicians who block climate mitigation policies as 'centrist?' They're radicals, full stop.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:24 am Can publications that presume to be taken seriously *please* stop referring to politicians who block climate mitigation policies as 'centrist?' They're radicals, full stop.
+1. This pisses me off almost daily.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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It also has geopolitical ramifications. I'm not sure of the impact of this to US soft power yet...but it does add into the appearance externally that the US is paralyzed. The US has blown several international commitments in the last 5-10 years. Especially on climate change. China has started mocking us openly for our lack of stability/capability to internally agree lately when we try to negotiate deals.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Carpet_pissr »

What precisely is the failed mechanism that allowed Manchin to be in this position? In terms of the government system.

If we ever get to a point where we can try to rebuild or fix our wrecked system, whatever that thing(s) is should be high on the list.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Someone needs to contact Manchin's grandchildren and question them about his position on their future.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:24 am Can publications that presume to be taken seriously *please* stop referring to politicians who block climate mitigation policies as 'centrist?' They're radicals, full stop.
I've been told "centrist" means opposition to taxes. I found this out just yesterday as one of our own (D) state reps (Gottheimer) is apparently leading current opposition in the House over taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Yet here in NJ he's campaigning on getting SALT deductions back, getting more money to firefighters and lowering the prices of gasoline. How all of that is accomplished without involving taxes, I am not sure but that's his position.

To me it sounds more like a libertarian position where things are paid for with hugs and rainbows.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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This has Mitch written all over it. Why would he twice negotiate shit and then just drop it all at the last minute? What a sack of shit.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:52 am
Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:24 am Can publications that presume to be taken seriously *please* stop referring to politicians who block climate mitigation policies as 'centrist?' They're radicals, full stop.
I've been told "centrist" means opposition to taxes. I found this out just yesterday as one of our own (D) state reps (Gottheimer) is apparently leading current opposition in the House over taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Yet here in NJ he's campaigning on getting SALT deductions back, getting more money to firefighters and lowering the prices of gasoline. How all of that is accomplished without involving taxes, I am not sure but that's his position.

To me it sounds more like a libertarian position where things are paid for with hugs and rainbows.
Yeah, Gottheimer is clearly motivated primarily by avoiding higher taxes on wealthy constituents while pretending that he's acting out of some principled centrism. He's really the worst - at least Manchin has the excuse of representing West Virginia.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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El Guapo wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 9:32 am Yeah, Gottheimer is clearly motivated primarily by avoiding higher taxes on wealthy constituents while pretending that he's acting out of some principled centrism. He's really the worst - at least Manchin has the excuse of representing West Virginia.
I just saw this yesterday - how he's on a mission to destroy Biden's presidency:
Joe Manchin has absorbed most of the heat from liberals angry that the Senate has often blocked President Biden’s proposals. But Manchin represents an overwhelmingly Republican state, and he has been willing to negotiate a meaningful (albeit smaller) Senate reconciliation package that would move forward key progressive goals.

The true archvillain of the Biden presidency is Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat who keeps sticking the knife in Biden’s back.

Axios’s Hans Nichols reports Gottheimer is organizing a small faction of House Democrats to present a “counteroffer” that would blow up the incipient deal with Manchin. The Gottheimer crew wants to take out the tax hikes on the wealthy that Manchin is proposing. That would mean what’s left of the bill could still contain the spending proposals, but it would lack the revenue measures that would make it a deficit-reducer, which is Manchin’s main rationale for supporting the bill in the first place. If that revenue is gone, Manchin’s support probably collapses, and the bill dies. Which is probably fine with Gottheimer, who may be evil, but isn’t stupid.
On his position:
Gottheimer’s fixation seems to be insulating from taxation a slice of people so wealthy they account for a tiny percentage of even the most affluent districts. Gottheimer has cast himself as a hard-headed centrist who understands what the voters want. In an interview with Jason Zengerle for the New York Times Magazine, Gottheimer cast himself as a throwback to Clintonism...

Sounds great in theory. Except Bill Clinton raised taxes on the rich. Clinton understood that the political sweet spot was to promise middle-class tax cuts while also taxing the top one percent. Gottheimer’s formula is to avoid giving any benefits to the middle class and focusing on protecting the one percent.
I don't know anything about Chait, but there you go.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Gottheimer is awful. His "problems solver" caucus has solved no problems and is pretty much working for the oligarchs. That naturally means he gets positive coverage in publications run for and by the oligarchs such as the NY Times. He is exactly the type of politician they love to frame as serious as they interview him in the local diner (the recent article Kurth posted covers this).

I also personally don't buy the Manchin is just representing WV angle. I think he hides behind that to obfuscate his individual corruption. He is a fucking coal baron directly benefitting from his policy wrecking ball. I believe at this point that he intentionally strings along these conversations in a rear guard action to waste as much time as possible and prevent progress. He is way worse than Gottheimer. He is stealing the future to line his pocket. And it infuriates me personally that the media then treats him as some serious force fighting inflation. It has nothing to do with inflation. It's such horseshit.

Edit: Chait also wrote that before Manchin basically proved him wrong. Manchin is way, way worse. Gottheimer has much less influence individually. The entire negotiation revolved around Manchin to have him once again snatch away the ball based on whatever the news story of the day was. He's a calculating villain.
Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:19 am What precisely is the failed mechanism that allowed Manchin to be in this position? In terms of the government system.

If we ever get to a point where we can try to rebuild or fix our wrecked system, whatever that thing(s) is should be high on the list.
Purely situational due to the balance in the Senate. Even if the Senate worked on majority rule he'd still be in this position. Manchin true sin is pulling this hardline act when this nation is under intolerable stress. He is risking so much for individual personal gain. Which is pretty much what killed this nation. Jackals like him bleeding our nation dry.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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The alternative to Gottheimer was Scott Garret. Gottheimer will forever have my loyalty for defeating that piece of shit.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:19 am What precisely is the failed mechanism that allowed Manchin to be in this position? In terms of the government system.

If we ever get to a point where we can try to rebuild or fix our wrecked system, whatever that thing(s) is should be high on the list.
If you had to pick a mechanism to blame this on, I guess you'd have to say the voters, or if you want to go bigger, the structure of the senate. Democrats may technically hold half the Senate, but really only 48 seats as Manchin and Sinema are uninterested in the Party platform. All they really did was make it so Mitch doesn't explicitly decide what comes to the floor, beyond that we are lost.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Not so fast: Manchin flips again.
The plan would raise most of its new tax revenue, an estimated $313 billion, by imposing a minimum tax on the so-called book income of large corporations, like Amazon and FedEx, that currently use tax credits and other maneuvers to reduce their tax rates below the 21 percent corporate income tax rate in the United States.

It would raise another $14 billion by reducing a preferential tax treatment for income earned by venture capitalists and private equity firms, which has long been a goal of Democrats.

Congressional aides and climate activists said the climate investments were roughly in line with what had been negotiated over the past several months: tax credits to speed up the development of wind, solar, and other low-carbon energy as well as government assistance to spur technologies that Mr. Manchin favors, such as hydrogen and nuclear power.

The deal will also include a means-tested $7,500 tax credit to make new electric vehicles more affordable, according to three people familiar with the details. The measure also includes a methane fee that will start in 2025, said the three people, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss the details.

Also included will be $60 billion to address the disproportionate burden of pollution on low-income communities and communities of color, $27 billion for a “green bank” aimed at delivering financial support to clean energy projects and $20 billion for programs that can cut emissions in the agriculture sector.

The announcement of the deal stunned environmental advocates.

“I honestly don’t know what to say,” said Samuel Ricketts, co-founder and senior adviser of Evergreen Action, an environmental group. “We’re going to need to see the details, obviously, but people have been hard at work to salvage a deal. This has the opportunity to be an enormous breakthrough for climate progress.”

Mr. Manchin said the plan includes a “realistic energy and climate policy” that will “allow us to decarbonize while ensuring American energy is affordable, reliable, clean and secure.”
Of course the Dems still have time to slit their own throats; Sinema, for one, is noncommittal. But this will be a big win if it flies.
“Rather than risking more inflation with trillions in new spending, this bill will cut the inflation taxes Americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs, and ensure our country invests in the energy security and climate change solutions we need to remain a global superpower through innovation rather than elimination,” Mr. Manchin said.

He called the bill the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, making a clear distinction between it and the ambitious multitrillion-dollar domestic policy plan Mr. Biden proposed and Democrats in Congress spent most of last year toiling to pass.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Manchin diverts climate change from coal, and gets away with a smaller tax bill with 50% deficit reduction. Biden gets to pass an “anti-inflation” bill that’s really a budget, with climate change, a minimum 15% corporate tax and anti-private equity tax breaks that should have been easy. And a much needed win without SALT relief, or his boldest initiatives.

The budget window was closing, and this was announced the same day the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by another 0.75%. The Democrats need to be seen doing something in the papers before it’s too late.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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And, of course, it is way too little, way too late.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I sort of want to know what dirty secret deal they struck with Manchin but I also know it'll piss me off. This being Washington they'll tap some BS artist to write an upbeat account of how they came together.

Edit: "refusal to quickly sign on"?! It's been over a year of Manchin individually jerking everyone around. The last part is why I wonder what they had to give him because it's inflationary (which was dumb) magically became it's anti-inflationary (also dumb).
NY Times wrote:The plan falls far short of the ambitious domestic policy and tax package President Biden proposed last year, but Democrats, looking toward midterm elections that are likely to be shaped by voters’ concerns about soaring costs, pitched it as a targeted attack on the rapid price increases that have socked American consumers in the wallet this year, with inflation running at a 40-year high.

The announcement suggested that Democrats could move in the coming days to salvage a major piece of their domestic agenda, which only weeks ago appeared doomed given Mr. Manchin’s refusal to quickly sign on. Top Democrats released legislation on Wednesday evening, aiming for votes as early as next week.

“This is the action the American people have been waiting for,” Mr. Biden said in a statement, calling on both chambers to quickly pass the measure. “This addresses the problems of today — high health care costs and overall inflation — as well as investments in our energy security for the future.”

It was not clear what had changed Mr. Manchin’s mind since he said not even two weeks ago that he could not support such a package until he saw inflation numbers for July, which are not scheduled to be issued for two more weeks. But quiet negotiations had resumed between Mr. Manchin, Mr. Schumer and their staffs in recent days, according to a person familiar with the talks.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Is this why the GOP blocked the burn pit legislation that would help veterans last night? Senate legislation they'd approved a few weeks ago in a procedural vote but needed to be re-introduced because of spelling errors? Retaliation for Manchin suddenly agreeing to help his own party?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:09 am Is this why the GOP blocked the burn pit legislation that would help veterans last night? Senate legislation they'd approved a few weeks ago in a procedural vote but needed to be re-introduced because of spelling errors? Retaliation for Manchin suddenly agreeing to help his own party?
Yup. Jon Stewart was burning bright on this last night. They're willing to hurt the people THEY put in harms way to stick it to the libs. Absolute ghouls.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »

I'm piecing it together now. McConnell said he wouldn't let the CHIPS bill pass if the Democrats tried to address climate change or prescription drug pricing via the reconciliation, so they voted on the CHIPS bill first (it passed; congrats to Nancy Pelosi's estate), and then they immediately announced a deal on climate and drug pricing. I need to see video of McConnell when that happened. Need it.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:09 am Is this why the GOP blocked the burn pit legislation that would help veterans last night? Senate legislation they'd approved a few weeks ago in a procedural vote but needed to be re-introduced because of spelling errors? Retaliation for Manchin suddenly agreeing to help his own party?
Even if they're going for the retribution angle, voting down wildly popular support for veterans seems like a weird self-own though.

Anyways, I'll believe any of this when it actually happens. Queen Simena can still torpedo the whole thing anyways, leaving Manchin with only image rehab by saying "Well gosh, I really tried. See how I'm the good guy!" Which could just be the plan all along, tbh.
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