Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

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Formix
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Formix »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:07 pm In case you were wondering (like me) what was in it for Manchin


Incredible. Here's Manchin's cookie via @ella_nilsen

Department of Interior must lease at least 2 million acres of public land and 60 million acres of offshore waters for drilling before any could be used for renewable energy.
I've been wondering if this is a nothingburger. These companies see the writing on the wall. Are they really going to want to invest in new drilling, or would they rather put up some windmills which will make them more money, and not present a potential future PR nightmare like a drilling rig might?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Formix wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:38 amI've been wondering if this is a nothingburger. These companies see the writing on the wall. Are they really going to want to invest in new drilling, or would they rather put up some windmills which will make them more money, and not present a potential future PR nightmare like a drilling rig might?
They'll probably drill first if resources are available. Building windmills has a much lower ROI. This is especially true if there is no transmission to the grid available. That's because then they have to build that as well.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »

This is so gross:
Steve Ubl, who leads the nation’s top industry group for drugmakers, is offering a final salvo to Congress as Democratic lawmakers inch closer to passing their sweeping reconciliation package that includes drug pricing measures — and threatening swift retaliation if they don’t listen, he told POLITICO.

Ubl’s group, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, or PhRMA, and its 31 board members sent a letter to every member of Congress on Thursday afternoon, urging them to vote against the package.

PhRMA, not accustomed to losing legislative fights, has waged a multimillion-dollar advocacy campaign against the drug pricing measures, and is crafting contingency plans if they fail. In addition to hinting at running campaign ads against Democrats in tough races this fall, the industry is assessing its legal options and pondering future regulatory or legislative fixes.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Blackhawk »

Have they tried not being greedy sociopaths?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Kraken »

Moving forward.
The Senate took a key vote on Saturday to advance Democrats' sweeping health care and climate bill toward final passage -- putting the package on track to pass the chamber as soon as this weekend.

The first procedural vote to proceed to the bill succeeded by a 51-50 tally, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie.
...
Following the procedural vote to proceed to the bill, there will be up to 20 hours of debate evenly divided between the two parties, though some of that time could be yielded back to speed up the process.
...
Following time for debate, there will be a process colloquially referred to on Capitol Hill as a "vote-a-rama" -- a marathon series of amendment votes with no time limit that must run its course before a final vote can take place.

Republicans will be able to use the vote-a-rama to put Democrats on the spot and force politically tough votes. The process typically stretches overnight and into the early hours of the next morning.

It's not yet clear exactly when the vote-a-rama will begin, but it could start as early as Saturday evening. If that happens, a final vote could potentially take place as soon as the early hours of Sunday morning.
Unless Dems still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in these final hours, I move that mal should revise the thread title again.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »

I'm sure there was a good reason


Breaking: Senate Republicans have just blocked the $35/month insulin price cap for Americans on private insurance from Democrats' spending bill.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:13 am I'm sure there was a good reason


Breaking: Senate Republicans have just blocked the $35/month insulin price cap for Americans on private insurance from Democrats' spending bill.
It can't just be the Republicans. Which Democrats was involved? I'd blindly guess Manchin since it'd enrich members of his own family.

Edit: Apparently wrong - it needed to break a filibuster for some reason. Guess it wasn't in the original bill for god knows what reason. My cynical brain says it wasn't in the bill because someone didn't actually want it except for the theater.

Edit 2: So this is pure the Senate is a broken institution nonsense. Apparently the Republicans challenged the $35 cap for private insurance only. They didn't block it for Medicare. Reconciliation can only be used to affect the balance of payments of the government and you could argue that private insurance premiums on medicine could have an impact on the budget. In any case, it's debatable and that is the role of the world's greatest deliberatie body. So the Republicans 'objected' to force that debate. That'd subject the question to a straight up down vote on the amendment after a lively discussion. But living totally up to the name then Republicans filibustered the vote to prevent the debate. Such a dumb fucking system.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Zarathud »

Fuck the Republicans. Insulin is a major expense in my household, having two teenage Type 1 diabetics. Without it, they die.

Insulin was discovered in 1921 — and is still insanely expensive. The price of Humalog insulin went up from $21 in 1999 to $332 in 2019. Just from 2014 to 2019, the price went up 54%. The US pays more than 7x other countries, and this would reduce it to “only” 3x.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by $iljanus »

Holy shit, it’s fucking insulin not some new drug on the TV. The Dems need to run a bunch of ads about the Republicans screwing diabetics over. But more importantly congress needs to pass a meaningful insulin price cap.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Kraken »

I think the parliamentarian shot that down on the fly, which is how the Rs were able to filibuster it. Insulin will still be price-controlled through Medicare, and one hopes that will put downward pressure on the private market. Just one more reason having a private market at all is nuts.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by $iljanus »

Kraken wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:33 pm I think the parliamentarian shot that down on the fly, which is how the Rs were able to filibuster it. Insulin will still be price-controlled through Medicare, and one hopes that will put downward pressure on the private market. Just one more reason having a private market at all is nuts.
I wonder if having it capped for just Medicare will just be an incentive for pharma to maintain the high price of insulin for everyone else to offset the loss of potential cash they could have gotten from fleecing seniors? Maybe I’m interpreting the economics wrong :think:

Here’s an older article going into the reasons why insulin prices have skyrocketed. Due to incremental changes in the product the companies get to keep insulin under patent so there aren’t any generic options. Also there are only three manufacturers of insulin and the article just states that they can raise prices in lockstep because…they can.

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/3/18293950/w ... -expensive

Some tidbits:
One real solution to the problem, however, would be to bring a generic version of insulin to the market. There are currently no true generic options available (though there are several rebranded and biosimilar insulins). This is in part because companies have made those incremental improvements to insulin products, which has allowed them to keep their formulations under patent, and because older insulin formulations have fallen out of fashion.

But not all insulins are patent-protected. For example, none of Eli Lilly’s insulins are, according to the drugmaker. In those cases, Luo said, potential manufacturers may be deterred by secondary patents on non-active ingredients in insulins or on associated devices (such as insulin delivery pens).

There’s also “extreme regulatory complexity” around bringing follow-on generic insulins to market, Luo added. And that’s something regulators, such as the Food and Drug Administration, have been working to streamline. History has shown that their efforts are worthwhile: When cheaper generic options are introduced to the market, overall drug prices come down. A century after insulin was discovered, it’s about time we had one.
Free market for the win baby :dance: (if you happen to be a big pharma CEO)
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

The price of insulin has nothing to do with economics. It's pretty much pure price gouging and abuse of the regulatory system. It's costs $10 to produce a product they sell for $300. It's a failure of anti-trust enforcement but even if they didn't do something about the oligarchic structure they still should be doing something to prevent this blatant price gouging. But in the end we're a shit hole nation and this is allowed.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »


Democrats' reconciliation bill almost collapsed because Kyrsten Sinema, at the last minute, expressed concern about the impact the corporate minimum tax would have on subsidiaries owned by private equity firms.
Such an oddly specific concern. She's so quirky!
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

At the very least she's sort of honest about her distain for regular folks. She doesn't bother with public meetings and townhalls. She signals quite clearly she is a corrupt, disgusting wannabe plutocrat and she's fine with that!
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Now with mixed results!

Post by malchior »

Now we'll see if the voters reward them. (Probably narrator in 3 months: They didn't).

Thread title updated to reflect this isn't a complete failure but the long public in-fighting with bright flashes of deep systemic corruption temper the results.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »

Here's the official tally for the members of the GOP that voted against $35 insulin cap



I know that no one is surprised.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by Skinypupy »

Before I give a "yay", help me understand something.

Is this something that the GOP will just undo if/when they win back either house in the midterms or the next election? Or is it something that will actually be put into motion with no backsies (usual GOP obstruction fuckery notwithstanding)?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by Holman »

Skinypupy wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:10 pm Before I give a "yay", help me understand something.

Is this something that the GOP will just undo if/when they win back either house in the midterms or the next election? Or is it something that will actually be put into motion with no backsies (usual GOP obstruction fuckery notwithstanding)?
If they win the House but not the Senate (which seems the likely outcome), they can't undo it.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by Kraken »

Holman wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:15 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:10 pm Before I give a "yay", help me understand something.

Is this something that the GOP will just undo if/when they win back either house in the midterms or the next election? Or is it something that will actually be put into motion with no backsies (usual GOP obstruction fuckery notwithstanding)?
If they win the House but not the Senate (which seems the likely outcome), they can't undo it.
And even if they win both houses, they'd need to pass their anti-legislation with a veto-proof majority. At least for the next two years, by which time the new law will be dug in.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:22 pm
Holman wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:15 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:10 pm Before I give a "yay", help me understand something.

Is this something that the GOP will just undo if/when they win back either house in the midterms or the next election? Or is it something that will actually be put into motion with no backsies (usual GOP obstruction fuckery notwithstanding)?
If they win the House but not the Senate (which seems the likely outcome), they can't undo it.
And even if they win both houses, they'd need to pass their anti-legislation with a veto-proof majority. At least for the next two years, by which time the new law will be dug in.
I'm not sure what dug in means but the Republicans can undo much of this in two years if the stars align. They can defund the programs, cancel the tax breaks, and change the policies using the exact same process. The only thing that'll potentially make it dug in is if the oligarch class that calls the shots have reoriented their portfolios to collect their rents. Otherwise this very well could be gone in a puff of whatever bullshit rhetoric they'll wrap it in in 2024. We also can't discount that hostage taking will occur if the House and Senate are in Republican hands that'll force some of this to be rolled back.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by El Guapo »

Well, whenever Republicans have control of government the first order of business is regressive tax cuts. They may not reverse these progressive tax changes precisely, but they'll cut taxes for the rich as much as possible. Though they would be doing that anyway.

Otherwise, the only political hot potato in here is the climate change stuff. Decent chance that they do something unhelpful in that space, though we can hope it will only be symbolic for the base.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by malchior »

As expected, we've come to find out that Manchin and Schumer are up to their necks in sleaze. While this bill is a net positive, this disgusting system only works when some oligarch gets their piece of the action. Bonus points to Schumer for saying with a straight face this only happened because of Manchin despite the huge donations to his campaign.

That said, this article is worth a read. It really untangles how folks like Manchin extract wealth for a tiny percentage at the cost of the environmental impacts his constituents have to live with. This celebration as usual comes at great cost for the neediest. I need to go take a shower.


After years of spirited opposition from environmental activists, the Mountain Valley Pipeline — a 304-mile gas pipeline cutting through the Appalachian Mountains — was behind schedule, over budget and beset with lawsuits. As recently as February, one of its developers, NextEra Energy, warned that the many legal and regulatory obstacles meant there was “a very low probability of pipeline completion.”

Then came Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and his hold on the Democrats’ climate agenda.

...

Natural gas pipeline companies have dramatically increased their contributions to Mr. Manchin, from just $20,000 in 2020 to more than $331,000 so far this election cycle, according to campaign finance disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission and tallied by the Center for Responsive Politics. Mr. Manchin has been by far Congress’s largest recipient of money from natural gas pipeline companies this cycle, raising three times as much from the industry than any other lawmaker.

NextEra Energy, a utility giant and stakeholder in the Mountain Valley Pipeline, is a top donor to both Mr. Manchin and Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York, who negotiated the pipeline side deal with Mr. Manchin. Mr. Schumer has received more than $281,000 from NextEra this election cycle, the data shows. Equitrans Midstream, which owns the largest stake in the pipeline, has given more than $10,000 to Mr. Manchin. The pipeline and its owners have also spent heavily to lobby Congress.

The disclosures point to the extraordinary behind-the-scenes spending and deal-making by the fossil fuel industry that have shaped a climate bill that nevertheless stands to be transformational. The final reconciliation package, which cleared the Senate on Sunday, would allocate more than $370 billion to climate and energy policies, including support for cleaner technologies like wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles, and put the United States on track to reduce its emissions of planet-warming gases by roughly 40 percent below 2005 levels by the decade’s end.

A spokesman for Mr. Manchin said the Mountain Valley Pipeline “will help bring down energy costs, shore up American energy security and create jobs in West Virginia.” An official in Mr. Schumer’s office said the pipeline deal “was only included at the insistence of Sen. Manchin as part of any agreement related to this reconciliation bill.”

...

But in Appalachia, where the Mountain Valley Pipeline cuts through steep mountainsides and nearly 1,000 streams and wetlands, the deal has highlighted the economic and social tensions in a region where extractive industries over the generations have produced jobs in coal mines and on fracking rigs but have also left behind deep scars on the land and in communities.

For years, environmental and civil rights activists as well as many Democratic state lawmakers have opposed the pipeline project, which would carry more than two billion cubic feet of natural gas per day out of the Marcellus shale fields in West Virginia and through southern Virginia. Construction on the pipeline was supposed to be complete by 2018, but environmental groups have successfully challenged a series of federal permits in court, where judges have found the pipeline developers’ analyses about the effects on wildlife, sedimentation and erosion lacking.

The pipeline deal means Appalachia is again becoming a “sacrifice zone” for the greater good, said Russell Chisholm, a Persian Gulf war veteran and a member of Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights, a coalition of groups that oppose construction.

...

“If working people, poor people reaped the benefits, this bill could really help,” Mr. Chisholm said. “But it’s all beyond us, because it turns out they’ve been negotiating behind the scenes. It turns out the pipeline was on the negotiating table, and we weren’t at that table.”
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by El Guapo »

Not that Manchin isn't a corrupt sleazebag, but isn't $331,000 in campaign contributions a pittance? I wouldn't think you could buy a vote for that?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by Unagi »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:12 am Not that Manchin isn't a corrupt sleazebag, but isn't $331,000 in campaign contributions a pittance? I wouldn't think you could buy a vote for that?
Or at the very least, someone should be able to out-bid that, if it was.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:12 am Not that Manchin isn't a corrupt sleazebag, but isn't $331,000 in campaign contributions a pittance? I wouldn't think you could buy a vote for that?
I'd argue the money buys them the access to talk about their issue. And I'd suspect there are plenty of other firms in that pool too. It also lines up nicely with his chairmanship of the energy committee. Still the same problem persists, he and his family stand to gain from this and it doesn't help that the Senate seemingly has no standard for ethics anymore. It's all sleaze. So did Manchin wink and nod and sell his vote for $331K? No but we also shouldn't pretend that this doesn't lead to incredibly sleazy outcomes where the wealthy prosper and the poorest people including Manchin's constituents absorb most of the negative impacts.

This is where my sense of outrage lays. I'm not saying that government is going to be clean as driven snow and backroom deals shouldn't happen or didn't happen in the past. I'm more commenting that we've gotten to the point where they don't even pretend to care about balancing interests, or even avoid the appearance that everything is tailored to the same narrow interests and their own pocket lining. It's the golden age of grift and no one cares.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by malchior »

The GOP are busy bees. When they are not busy carrying water for Trump's crime spree the GOP they are hatching new attempts to try to block progress. FWIW it seems certain they'll fail but that won't stop their idiotic and radical base from using it as further evidence that whatever the Democrats pass is illegitimate.

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