Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Alefroth wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:05 pm If Manchin flips to Independent, what happens to the Dem majority and everything that brings? Sanders is Independent, but the Dems get to claim him. Is it up to Manchin?
Senate priorities (meaning votes and their scheduling) depend on the Senate Majority Leader. Were Manchin to go Independent, everything in the senate would then depend on whether he supported Schumer or McConnell as Majority Leader.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Holman wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:24 pm
Alefroth wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:05 pm If Manchin flips to Independent, what happens to the Dem majority and everything that brings? Sanders is Independent, but the Dems get to claim him. Is it up to Manchin?
Senate priorities (meaning votes and their scheduling) depend on the Senate Majority Leader. Were Manchin to go Independent, everything in the senate would then depend on whether he supported Schumer or McConnell as Majority Leader.
Does he get to determine that on a daily basis, or by the hour?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Alefroth wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:05 pmIs it up to Manchin?
Yes. He chooses who he caucuses with. If he goes independent but continues to be a part of the Democratic caucus, Schumer stays the Speaker. If he stops caucusing with the Dems, then McConnel takes over.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Carpet_pissr »

The system has created a monster. Too bad we’re too polarized and broken to work together and patch it out. That truly should be a bipartisan issue: can’t imagine either party wanting a situation like this to be able to happen again.

When is the last time a Senator or Rep had this much power (due to this particular situation)? Surely Manchin is not the first?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Well one things for sure, this wasn't the 1st year we needed or expected. Aside from passing the infrastructure stuff it's been a shit show. If it's Biden's fault or not is of little matter as it screws us either way.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:55 am Well one things for sure, this wasn't the 1st year we needed or expected. Aside from passing the infrastructure stuff it's been a shit show. If it's Biden's fault or not is of little matter as it screws us either way.
I'll continue to argue that the infrastructure bill isn't going to do much of anything to help their political fortunes. It'll be limited in direct impact to folks and it's spread over long periods of time. Meanwhile the expanded child tax credit just ended and student loan repayments are about to restart which is a double whammy for pandemic impacted families. That's direct impact now and despite total GOP obstruction it'll be hung around the necks of Democrats.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:08 am
Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:55 am Well one things for sure, this wasn't the 1st year we needed or expected. Aside from passing the infrastructure stuff it's been a shit show. If it's Biden's fault or not is of little matter as it screws us either way.
I'll continue to argue that the infrastructure bill isn't going to do much of anything to help their political fortunes. It'll be limited in direct impact to folks and it's spread over long periods of time. Meanwhile the expanded child tax credit just ended and student loan repayments are about to restart which is a double whammy for pandemic impacted families. That's direct impact now and despite total GOP obstruction it'll be hung around the necks of Democrats.
Yep, the BIF is nice and all, but the BBB was the crown jewel. If it doesn't get passed in even the current extremely watered-down form, it's difficult to overstate the amount of fail for Democrats.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Based on what I just saw live on tv reporting, Manchin is taken aback on the attack on his character. Always the reaction when someone accidentally drops their mask and doesn't realize we all saw right through it.

Manchin has boosters just went on tv today and has boosters all over the media saying he hasn't changed his position at all. The true story is that the progressives played a shell game to hide the true $6B price tag. Bullshit. That's another goalpost move. Again. Manchin seemingly doesn't understand that his game is up as much as he loves to hide behind smokescreens.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:46 am Based on what I just saw live on tv reporting, Manchin is taken aback on the attack on his character. Always the reaction when someone accidentally drops their mask and doesn't realize we all saw right through it.

Manchin has boosters just went on tv today and has boosters all over the media saying he hasn't changed his position at all. The true story is that the progressives played a shell game to hide the true $6B price tag. Bullshit. That's another goalpost move. Again. Manchin seemingly doesn't understand that his game is up as much as he loves to hide behind smokescreens.
Wait, you think he was REALLY taken aback? It's ALL theater, man, come on.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I think he may have been surprised by the WH statement but he knew he was going to get blown up. And to announce it on Fox News is the ultimate dick move.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote:
Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:55 am Well one things for sure, this wasn't the 1st year we needed or expected. Aside from passing the infrastructure stuff it's been a shit show. If it's Biden's fault or not is of little matter as it screws us either way.
I'll continue to argue that the infrastructure bill isn't going to do much of anything to help their political fortunes. It'll be limited in direct impact to folks and it's spread over long periods of time. Meanwhile the expanded child tax credit just ended and student loan repayments are about to restart which is a double whammy for pandemic impacted families. That's direct impact now and despite total GOP obstruction it'll be hung around the necks of Democrats.
Oh I don't think it benefits him at all. It's just good that it got passed as we desperately need to fix our infrastructure. The way they sent out the tax credits it also could jack up people's tax returns. I've been getting 250 a month and I've just been saving it for tax season. It's a prepayment and if you trust they calculated that right for everyone...
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:53 am
malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:46 am Based on what I just saw live on tv reporting, Manchin is taken aback on the attack on his character. Always the reaction when someone accidentally drops their mask and doesn't realize we all saw right through it.

Manchin has boosters just went on tv today and has boosters all over the media saying he hasn't changed his position at all. The true story is that the progressives played a shell game to hide the true $6B price tag. Bullshit. That's another goalpost move. Again. Manchin seemingly doesn't understand that his game is up as much as he loves to hide behind smokescreens.
Wait, you think he was REALLY taken aback? It's ALL theater, man, come on.
No. No. Don't take it that way. That is what he is arguing. He's so narcissistic that he fails to realize we've seen him and his belief that his character is unimpeachable is probably a weakness that someone clever could exploit. I was just saying he is falling back to the tactic that people like him use when they get caught. They feign outrage. He also seems to think that he'll spin his way out of this.

He still might because the press is credulous or pretends to be credulous and spins the theater as a legitimate response. I think it comes down to whether Biden is sharp enough to make him pay for if it indeed was a mistake. I dunno if Biden has that capacity. I hope someone in Biden's orbit can land a blow on Manchin though. Manchin has wasted a year in a critical time and he is trying to still play the serious man card. Come on. Make him pay for it.

Edit: BTW I think the WH press release was a good set up for this. Manchin's real defense right now is he is claiming he never changed his position the whole time which is ridiculous. That's why it was critical that the WH said that Manchin presented his own plan and they were considering it. Basically, they are saying, "You offered a plan and then said you can't support the entire effort days later. You're lying. Let's see who believes it."

And "Manchin has boosters" equals folks like Podhoretz at the NY Post who were echoing this line over the weekend for example on Meet the Press. Stepping back Manchin has been laying this 'trap' for awhile and it's fairly obvious. And the problem is it was a smart trap even if Biden escapes because Manchin has more options for himself politically. He has wounded Biden at an extremely inopportune time, given himself outs he didn't have, and loads of the press are more than happy to spout his talking points.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:25 am
When is the last time a Senator or Rep had this much power (due to this particular situation)? Surely Manchin is not the first?
Ignoring the majority leaders, the first thing that comes to mind was the 50/50 Senate in the early 00's, when Jim Jeffords switched parties and gave Democrats control of the Senate.

Edit: Oh, and a similar situation would have been when the Democrats very briefly had 60 seats at the start of Obama's turn, which would be another time when every vote was important in order to avoid a filibuster.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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This is a good question as any - why this way and why now?

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:18 pm This is a good question as any - why this way and why now?

Obviously the timing benefits him or future allies in some way. Exactly how will probably be forthcoming.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:25 pmObviously the timing benefits him or future allies in some way. Exactly how will probably be forthcoming.
Right. It's such a Twitter thing but I can't help but start to agree with the loudest voices that this behavior is pointing at real scumbaggery here. When you consider that Manchin is older, isn't up for re-election for several years, and there isn't any immediate political angle for him...it is hard to take this as normal politics. That's why I'm guessing at re-alignment but it could be something as simple in this golden age of fraud as he is just making sure his family is stinking filthy rich.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Did you see this about Manchin in the Huffington Post?
In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children, according to two sources familiar with the senator’s comments.
For a guy that's not a registered Republican, he sure does seem to use their talking points quite a bit.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:43 pm Did you see this about Manchin in the Huffington Post?
In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children, according to two sources familiar with the senator’s comments.
For a guy that's not a registered Republican, he sure does seem to use their talking points quite a bit.
He's a republican who determined how to maximize his power.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:43 pm Did you see this about Manchin in the Huffington Post?
In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children, according to two sources familiar with the senator’s comments.
For a guy that's not a registered Republican, he sure does seem to use their talking points quite a bit.
He was also against family leave as people might just fake being sick and go to a ballgame or something. I hope he chokes to death on national tv and nobody helps him. Too harsh? ;) He's exactly everything that is wrong with this country. Exploits the shit out of people and any small little thing they might get is a big deal. I wouldn't even benefit from most of the major things in the bill and I'm deeply disappointed. Maybe in 30 years after the great red wave we'll get another chance. :P
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:50 pmMaybe in 30 years after the great red wave we'll get another chance. :P
It won't be that long. The swings of the American electorate are not only getting more intense, they're getting faster. Even if the worst predictions of 2024 come true, the Democratic Party will find itself competitive again within just a few years.

The great and terrible thing about a FPTP voting system is that you always end up with two major parties. The composition of those parties will change over time, but there will always be two. If a party becomes unable to secure power, then it will change until it does.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Well that assumes we don't go the way of Russia and never have a legit election again. They win the house and senate and overthrow the election we will totally screwed. I mean at this point it's entirely possible they win 2024 without any need for that. In some ways we would be better off losing fair and square. :P
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:25 pmWell that assumes we don't go the way of Russia and never have a legit election again.
I realize I'm in the minority on this board, but I think this fear is greatly overstated. Overthrowing the system carries a vast number of risks, and they are totally unnecessary risks, because Republicans have no problem just winning - see Virginia.

But we also appear to be reverting to a style of politics that hasn't been popular in well over a century. If history is any guide, we should brace for white-hot rhetoric and substantially more political violence. The system will probably hold, but that doesn't mean it will be good times across the board. :(
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I wish I had a more positive outlook, but there's "legal" ways for them to force the election their way. Considering how many people are ok with people storming the capital I don't see people doing much if they invalidate 10,000 votes here and there. If we ran the election today Georgia would go have gone to Trump with the laws they have passed. I have no doubt on that. I'm just glad they didn't have the house and the senate because oh god that would have gotten even more ugly.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:48 pmI wish I had a more positive outlook, but there's "legal" ways for them to force the election their way.
Absolutely. When I say "the system will hold," I mean only that our constitutional order will persist. But that framework is good deal more loose than many Americans realize, and is no guarantee of anything other than a certain degree of stability. Our system has overseen many an atrocity, after all.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Little Raven wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:35 pm
Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:25 pmWell that assumes we don't go the way of Russia and never have a legit election again.
I realize I'm in the minority on this board, but I think this fear is greatly overstated. Overthrowing the system carries a vast number of risks, and they are totally unnecessary risks, because Republicans have no problem just winning - see Virginia.
It doesn't require overthrowing the system. If things just progress as they do going forward we end up with inescapable minority rule. Some political genius might figure out some strategy to flip it so Democrats are in charge but it'll still be minority rule. They'll just be the same people as before with a D next to their name. The EC / Senate math just doesn't allow for another option. We're looking at 70% of the power concentrating in 34% of the population within 20 years. That is why things are *failing - yes failing* quicker and quicker.
But we also appear to be reverting to a style of politics that hasn't been popular in well over a century. If history is any guide, we should brace for white-hot rhetoric and substantially more political violence.
I can partially agree with this. Though I wholly disagree that political violence will eventually definitively lead to some new stability inside our existing constitutional order. I'll bang on the same drum. Anyone who leans on history as predictive here is going to be way wrong here. For one, 5th generation warfare (or 6th generation depending on who you read) is a totally different beast than anything we've dealt with domestically. We're completely at the mercy of disinformation campaigns and our critical industries and infrastructure are all soft targets. We've got a heavy armed populace and well a lot of ways for shit to go sideways. We're already seeing the extent of the bad that happens if we call what is happening here cold civil war. If it goes hot it'll be a fragmented mess that'll be wholly unpredictable. And it could last for decades.

Though all said and done that probably won't happen. The most likely thing is we march wide-eyed into autocracy. It is what the oligarchs want. It is what a major political party wants and the current flawed constitutional order will give them the legal framework to put it in place.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:51 pmIf things just progress as they do going forward we end up with inescapable minority rule.
Again, this is overstated. Sure, Republicans are currently a minority that punches above their weight, but they're not THAT extreme a minority, and the American electorate is fairly fluid. Plus, it's not like we prevent people from moving to Wyoming. If you REALLY care about your Senate representation, well, Cheyenne is ready to welcome you. Just 200,000 Democrats moving to that state (less than 1/2 of 1 percent of registered Democrats nationwide) would turn it solid blue in perpetuity, but nobody is doing that because honestly its not worth the effort. Which should tell you something about the relative value of Senate representation.
We're looking at 70% of the power concentrating in 34% of the population within 20 years.
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Predictions about the future are hard. Yes, Democrats have been concentrating in cities for the last 20 years, but we have no way of knowing if that trend will continue. Maybe expanded work from home options will allow knowledge workers to spread out again. Maybe failing supply chains will force more local manufacturing, reinvigorating rural economies and pulling knowledge workers into the sticks. Maybe a politician will master social media the way FDR mastered radio, granting them unchallengeable majorities in both houses. But most likely, the parties themselves will shift. We're seeing that happen right now - the Republican party is already practically unrecognizable from just 30 years ago, and the Democrats are increasingly looking like they're about to have their own crack-up. Who knows how the pieces will shake out when that happens.
Though I wholly disagree that political violence will eventually definitively lead to some new stability inside our existing constitutional order.
That's not what I said. I said the constitutional order would survive. That does indicate a certain degree of stability - as in, we will have a stable system for determining who is in change of the nukes. But it certainly doesn't mean that everything is stable everywhere. For much of American history, politics has been a bare-knuckle sport where the ref was only nominally paying attention. We took very active steps to turn it into a fancy debate society instead, but technology has largely rendered those steps irrelevant, so it's back to the ring - at least for now.
The most likely thing is we march wide-eyed into autocracy. It is what the oligarchs want.
Only the stupid ones. Autocracies are infinitely more dangerous to oligarchs than democracies. The rich can always find a Manchin as long as there's a Senate. But all of Jack Ma's wealth couldn't protect him from Xi.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Little Raven wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:41 pmVery interesting points
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I find it refreshing to read something that isn't we're all doomed. Even if we are all doomed. :)
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Little Raven wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:41 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:51 pmIf things just progress as they do going forward we end up with inescapable minority rule.
Again, this is overstated. Sure, Republicans are currently a minority that punches above their weight, but they're not THAT extreme a minority, and the American electorate is fairly fluid. Plus, it's not like we prevent people from moving to Wyoming. If you REALLY care about your Senate representation, well, Cheyenne is ready to welcome you. Just 200,000 Democrats moving to that state (less than 1/2 of 1 percent of registered Democrats nationwide) would turn it solid blue in perpetuity, but nobody is doing that because honestly its not worth the effort. Which should tell you something about the relative value of Senate representation.
We don't prevent mass migrations? Oh problem solved.
We're looking at 70% of the power concentrating in 34% of the population within 20 years.
Predictions about the future are hard. Yes, Democrats have been concentrating in cities for the last 20 years, but we have no way of knowing if that trend will continue.
Argue this point with the census bureau. This isn't 100% about Democrats versus Republicans. The population of the United States is concentrating. Period. If the label flipped from Republican to Democrat we'd still have the same problem. As Manchin showed us this weekend. As Nixon showed us 50 years ago. It isn't the label. It's the people. Specifically white people. Specifically white xenophobic people.

Edit: Also, I forgot to push on this point but the WaPo piece ends by saying that the Senate has tended to have a disproportionate edge yet we made it work through norms/common purpose. Now that norms are essentially meaningless now and we have no common purpose we've fallen into a spiral of power politics that presage more dysfunction not less. The history of the last 10 years seems way more meaningful here than the preceding 200 years at this rate. Again changing the labels isn't going to change that we have gone from a cooperative system to a winner-takes-all model. And at the heart lies another question - why would the minority give up the power they hold now to decide the winner?
Maybe expanded work from home options will allow knowledge workers to spread out again. Maybe failing supply chains will force more local manufacturing, reinvigorating rural economies and pulling knowledge workers into the sticks. Maybe a politician will master social media the way FDR mastered radio, granting them unchallengeable majorities in both houses. But most likely, the parties themselves will shift.
This is fantasy thinking but even then it still runs into the concentration problem.
We're seeing that happen right now - the Republican party is already practically unrecognizable from just 30 years ago, and the Democrats are increasingly looking like they're about to have their own crack-up. Who knows how the pieces will shake out when that happens.
I'll keep banging on the same drum here. We probably don't have the time to re-align. I'll say it again for the millionth time. The critical period is in 2-4 years. We don't have time. Don't believe me, go read the dozens of experts hanging off alarms.
Though I wholly disagree that political violence will eventually definitively lead to some new stability inside our existing constitutional order.
That's not what I said. I said the constitutional order would survive. That does indicate a certain degree of stability - as in, we will have a stable system for determining who is in change of the nukes.
Several US generals just actually commented that we needed to worry about the army splitting in 2024. Control of the nuclear arsenal is one of the concerns we have in a worst case scenario. They mentioned the episode where Milley might have gone outside the chain of command to tell people to ignore orders to conduct nuclear attacks from Trump. But yeah they're all overreacting too and that is a totally normal situation.


Only the stupid ones. Autocracies are infinitely more dangerous to oligarchs than democracies. The rich can always find a Manchin as long as there's a Senate. But all of Jack Ma's wealth couldn't protect him from Xi.
Yet Jack Ma was solidly behind Xi until the fall. But betting on oligarchs not trying to grab for power is a fool's errand.
Octavious wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 6:06 pm I find it refreshing to read something that isn't we're all doomed. Even if we are all doomed. :)
I mean sure it is nice to wrap yourself in a fantasy blanket when times are rough. But that's all this is. I'm not saying with 100% certainty bad things are going to happen exactly the way I say but when we have experts everywhere raising alarms in a country where being serious meant saying everything is fine...we ought to start listening. It's almost too late already.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 6:31 pmWe don't prevent mass migrations? Oh problem solved.
We don't lock people out of the political process, at least, not that way. And snark aside, the fact that we don't prevent mass migrations is actually a rather HUGE deal - in most parts of the world, you cannot simply move 2000 miles away without anyone giving you a hard time. Just TRY moving out of your province in China or Russia...or even India.
The population of the United States is concentrating.
Yup. But trends don't continue indefinitely. Is it possible that taken to a far enough extreme, this could actually break our constitutional order? Sure, but I think we're many decades away from that point. And yes, I realize you disagree.
I'll say it again for the millionth time. The critical period is in 2-4 years.
I truly envy your crystal ball. It must be marvelous to see the future with such clarity.

But hey, in 4 years you'll get to say I told you so.
Several US generals[/url] just actually commented that we needed to worry about the army splitting in 2024.
I'm deeply dubious that the United States military is going to split any time soon. It has entirely the wrong organizational model for that - everything is much too integrated. A general doesn't really have the power to "go rogue," the way that we saw in say, ancient Rome, because his army is not an independent entity. A much more plausible scenario is the military pulling a Turkey and deciding that their civilian oversight needs "correction" but that's pretty low on my list of concerns as well. Conditions are simply nowhere near desperate enough to warrant radical moves of that nature.
Yet Jack Ma was solidly behind Xi until the fall.
You don't know that. You don't know much of anything about what Jack Ma thought. And that's not a slur against you, it's just a fact that nobody outside of Jack's inner circle will ever know that, because information does not flow in China the way it does here. In China, people are not free to speak their mind when it comes to political matters, and have not been for many decades. So they don't.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Drazzil »

malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:10 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:53 am
malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:46 am Based on what I just saw live on tv reporting, Manchin is taken aback on the attack on his character. Always the reaction when someone accidentally drops their mask and doesn't realize we all saw right through it.

Manchin has boosters just went on tv today and has boosters all over the media saying he hasn't changed his position at all. The true story is that the progressives played a shell game to hide the true $6B price tag. Bullshit. That's another goalpost move. Again. Manchin seemingly doesn't understand that his game is up as much as he loves to hide behind smokescreens.
Wait, you think he was REALLY taken aback? It's ALL theater, man, come on.
No. No. Don't take it that way. That is what he is arguing. He's so narcissistic that he fails to realize we've seen him and his belief that his character is unimpeachable is probably a weakness that someone clever could exploit. I was just saying he is falling back to the tactic that people like him use when they get caught. They feign outrage. He also seems to think that he'll spin his way out of this.

He still might because the press is credulous or pretends to be credulous and spins the theater as a legitimate response. I think it comes down to whether Biden is sharp enough to make him pay for if it indeed was a mistake. I dunno if Biden has that capacity. I hope someone in Biden's orbit can land a blow on Manchin though. Manchin has wasted a year in a critical time and he is trying to still play the serious man card. Come on. Make him pay for it.

Edit: BTW I think the WH press release was a good set up for this. Manchin's real defense right now is he is claiming he never changed his position the whole time which is ridiculous. That's why it was critical that the WH said that Manchin presented his own plan and they were considering it. Basically, they are saying, "You offered a plan and then said you can't support the entire effort days later. You're lying. Let's see who believes it."

And "Manchin has boosters" equals folks like Podhoretz at the NY Post who were echoing this line over the weekend for example on Meet the Press. Stepping back Manchin has been laying this 'trap' for awhile and it's fairly obvious. And the problem is it was a smart trap even if Biden escapes because Manchin has more options for himself politically. He has wounded Biden at an extremely inopportune time, given himself outs he didn't have, and loads of the press are more than happy to spout his talking points.
I've been arguing for SOME TIME NOW that Biden could have used the Manchin's families insider trading against him. You know what would have been great at keeping this assbag on task? The threat of criminal prosecution. Just like FDR (reportedly) did with Prescott Bush and his business plot buddies.

But no. Can't do something like that. Biden's too buddy buddy with the system.

If it's a civil war we are headed into, Biden is Buchannan. If it's a breakup, He's Gorbachev
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:18 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 6:31 pmWe don't prevent mass migrations? Oh problem solved.
We don't lock people out of the political process, at least, not that way. And snark aside, the fact that we don't prevent mass migrations is actually a rather HUGE deal - in most parts of the world, you cannot simply move 2000 miles away without anyone giving you a hard time. Just TRY moving out of your province in China or Russia...or even India.
Great. Nonetheless it is still a fairly silly argument. The mass migration thing whenever brought up is decidedly in the technically true but not traded with any level of seriousness without bong hits involved.
The population of the United States is concentrating.
Yup. But trends don't continue indefinitely. Is it possible that taken to a far enough extreme, this could actually break our constitutional order? Sure, but I think we're many decades away from that point. And yes, I realize you disagree.
The difference is that I don't think we are disagreeing based on the merits. You handwave the trend that is happening right now and say it is far off in the far future? Why should I trust that you are smarter than the actual experts who say it is happening right now?

Let's examine some of the evidence our constitutional order is breaking down right now. We had a President who was openly breaking the law. An entire administration full of members breaking various laws. Experts talked about how he completely perverted the DOJ and undermined confidence in its independence. He also attacked every guardrail beating at the walls. They mostly contained him but still he was criming frequently. He then claimed a fair election was stolen and invited his entire party to join in delegitimizing an election. And they did and are still hammering on it to delegitimize the lawful President. Major GOP figures still won't acknowledge that Biden was legitimately elected. This all happened...this year. Oh and a little thing called the Capitol riot and its aftermath. Despite that several individual officials were the difference between his plans and a full blown constitutional crisis. We also had the indignity of generals calling foreign leaders to reassure them that we'd have continuity of leadership. Totally solid stuff.

On the outside we have forces that threaten our constitutional order indirectly. We have attacks on our critical infrastructure that have gone largely unanswered for years. We can't coordinate against them to protect ourselves. We had a pandemic which piled on more pressure on a failing system and let's be frank...things aren't going well there. We have national and international policy flapping in 4 year increments *right now*. Our partners are openly freaking out that Trump might return and are drawing up plans to figure out how they'll protect themselves if that happens. Even then, during the Afghanistan disaster, we reminded them that our broken internal politics have direct impacts on them. I'll stop there but I'm only scratching the surface.

Even if all that wasn't an indication of crisis then why isn't it a blatant warning sign? This isn't so much on disagreeing sharply as there is a mountain of evidence showing our system is breaking down in real time and you have feelings. Still I'll pick up one thread. You acknowledge that the system could fail in the way described but feel like it's far, far away. Let's get specific. Why is it far, far away and not now? What is the evidence of that? What indicators of a return to normal are there versus indicators that the dysfunction is progressing?

I'll say it again for the millionth time. The critical period is in 2-4 years.
I truly envy your crystal ball. It must be marvelous to see the future with such clarity.
First off I'm not 100% sure it'll pan out in that timeframe. That seems to be the consensus about more critical points. For example, Trump loses in 2024 and refuses to concede again. That's a real possibility. Still on the flip slide, the Republicans might just win the next election and push the crisis out further. They don't need to seize power if they have legitimate power. And then the question becomes will they relinquish power in the future. I'll accede that predictions are hard sometimes but it isn't because the inherent stability of the system argues against it. It is because we have so much chaos that very much like a hurricane the exact speed and direction is hard to pin down.
But hey, in 4 years you'll get to say I told you so.
It always comes down to this with you. But I'm used to it. I've been hearing this type of pushback from people for years. Like I said it used to be the mark of the serious person. And in the end it is not because I'm right but more because I have done my homework and I believe I have listened to the right voices. And the chorus keeps getting louder and louder. You can choose to ignore it but you're probably going to be surprised by the rapidity of events. I hope to be wrong. I pray I'm wrong about the direction but I'm still preparing for trouble.
I'm deeply dubious that the United States military is going to split any time soon. It has entirely the wrong organizational model for that - everything is much too integrated. A general doesn't really have the power to "go rogue," the way that we saw in say, ancient Rome, because his army is not an independent entity. A much more plausible scenario is the military pulling a Turkey and deciding that their civilian oversight needs "correction" but that's pretty low on my list of concerns as well. Conditions are simply nowhere near desperate enough to warrant radical moves of that nature.
So I post a link to an article from actual US generals with a century if service between them, published in the Washington Post about these concerns, and I'm supposed to take the above seriously? Come on.
Yet Jack Ma was solidly behind Xi until the fall.
You don't know that. You don't know much of anything about what Jack Ma thought. And that's not a slur against you, it's just a fact that nobody outside of Jack's inner circle will ever know that, because information does not flow in China the way it does here. In China, people are not free to speak their mind when it comes to political matters, and have not been for many decades. So they don't.
I didn't take it as a slur against me. My point was that powerful people reach for power. Sometimes they make bad decisions. You can try to handwave it away but the facts are that oligarchic power has solidly aligned behind the Republicans *right now*. Whether it pans out for some theoretical individual is not important in the grand scheme. They are putting massive amounts of capital both financially and politically behind a party that is on several levels working to end our political order. It's a serious threat. I'm pretty sure they're not thinking too hard about the fate of Jack Ma.
Last edited by malchior on Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Drazzil »

Operating on the assumption that the Democratic party will not be a force to stand against the groups of people who want to end America, as a thing.

What now?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Drazzil »

Little Raven wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:18 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 6:31 pmWe don't prevent mass migrations? Oh problem solved.
We don't lock people out of the political process, at least, not that way. And snark aside, the fact that we don't prevent mass migrations is actually a rather HUGE deal - in most parts of the world, you cannot simply move 2000 miles away without anyone giving you a hard time. Just TRY moving out of your province in China or Russia...or even India.
The population of the United States is concentrating.
Yup. But trends don't continue indefinitely. Is it possible that taken to a far enough extreme, this could actually break our constitutional order? Sure, but I think we're many decades away from that point. And yes, I realize you disagree.
I'll say it again for the millionth time. The critical period is in 2-4 years.
I truly envy your crystal ball. It must be marvelous to see the future with such clarity.

But hey, in 4 years you'll get to say I told you so.
Several US generals[/url] just actually commented that we needed to worry about the army splitting in 2024.
I'm deeply dubious that the United States military is going to split any time soon. It has entirely the wrong organizational model for that - everything is much too integrated. A general doesn't really have the power to "go rogue," the way that we saw in say, ancient Rome, because his army is not an independent entity. A much more plausible scenario is the military pulling a Turkey and deciding that their civilian oversight needs "correction" but that's pretty low on my list of concerns as well. Conditions are simply nowhere near desperate enough to warrant radical moves of that nature.
Yet Jack Ma was solidly behind Xi until the fall.
You don't know that. You don't know much of anything about what Jack Ma thought. And that's not a slur against you, it's just a fact that nobody outside of Jack's inner circle will ever know that, because information does not flow in China the way it does here. In China, people are not free to speak their mind when it comes to political matters, and have not been for many decades. So they don't.
Just as an aside. What *WOULD* make you think that the United States was in fact in danger of collapse and or make you think we were in trouble?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Drazzil wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:20 pmJust as an aside. What *WOULD* make you think that the United States was in fact in danger of collapse and or make you think we were in trouble?
"A Republic, if you can keep it."

The United States government has been in danger of collapse since it was first conceived, and the danger will never be all that far away. Democracy is not a particularly stable form of government and human governance is not a particularly stable institution period. That said, I don't see the conditions for a large scale US collapse in the near term - obesity is still a larger problem than starvation.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Why should I trust that you are smarter than the actual experts who say it is happening right now?
I'm not asking you to trust me. I'm just stating an opinion. You do you, man.
What indicators of a return to normal are there versus indicators that the dysfunction is progressing?
I think you and I have different baselines of "normal." You seem to think there was some enlightened past where everyone in America got along and worked together for the common good of the country. Everyone was treated equally, every voice was listened to, and politics consisted of a wise electorate carefully picking candidates from a slate of enlightened statesmen.

The American history I know suggests no such thing has ever existed. We have been a bitterly divided nation barely holding things together for the vast bulk of our history. Our record of democracy is distinctly spotty. Our historical commitment to social justice is questionable. And for every Lincoln, we get any number of Boss Tweeds. But we're still here.
First off I'm not 100% sure it'll pan out in that timeframe.
And yet you've said it a million times. Have a little faith in yourself, my friend.
But I'm used to it. I've been hearing this type of pushback from people for years.
'Tis the burden of the enlightened soul. Cassandra would sympathize.

But in all seriousness, when did "preparing for trouble" become anything other than good old common sense? Of course you should prepare for trouble!
So I post a link to an article about actual US general published in the Washington Post about these concerns and I'm supposed to take the above seriously? Come on.
Retired generals are not necessarily authorities on...well, much of anything. And historically, we've had no shortage of retired generals who predicted or even actively caused trouble. We survived.
You can try to handwave it away but the facts are that oligarchic power has solidly aligned behind the Republicans *right now*.
No, it hasn't. Billionaires, like Americans, are all over the place when it comes to politics. But it is true that the wealthy in America have a preferred political party. It's why virtually everyone on this board is Democrat.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Disagree heartily that (implied ‘most’?) people have to be starving in order for a Republic to end. I do see your point, “things won’t end badly because too many people are comfortable”, I just disagree.

“The political rot also extended to the Roman Senate, which failed to temper the excesses of the emperors due to its own widespread corruption and incompetence. As the situation worsened, civic pride waned and many Roman citizens lost trust in their leadership.“
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Disagree heartily that (implied ‘most’?) people have to be starving in order for a Republic to end.
It's not absolutely necessary, but boy does it help. Honestly I'm not aware of any historical precedent for a country as wealthy as ours just simultaneously combusting. The closest I can think of is maybe Europe right before WW1, but there are some obvious issues with that comparison.
“The political rot also extended to the Roman Senate, which failed to temper the excesses of the emperors due to its own widespread corruption and incompetence. As the situation worsened, civic pride waned and many Roman citizens lost trust in their leadership.“
I loves me a good Rome comparison, but I'm not sure what angle you're going for with this one. This is talking about the fall of the Roman Empire, which was a very different thing than the Roman Republic, which would seem to be our obvious counterpart at this stage of our history. (I mean this honestly. You can draw some truly scary parallels between our current situation and the Crisis if you have a mind to) After all, if Mal is right, then we're about to sleep walk our way into autocracy and really kick start our Imperial phase. (Unlike poor Ceaser -he had to EARN his autocracy several times over.) By this point in Roman history, civil war was a pretty much ongoing affair, starvation was rife, and the Empire saw violent changes of leadership (with the appropriate purges) several times a decade.

I know things are bad in America these days, but they're not quite THAT bad.
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