Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:13 pmThis is definitely part of it but having heard *way too much* out of mouth and reading his non-stop op eds it is also clear he believes his own bullshit. He is closer to Trump than we think.
Well, if people were donating millions of dollars to me to continue to act like a horse's ass at a national level, log-jamming progress and maintaining the status quo, I'm guessing I'd start thinking I was right too.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Meanwhile, this craziness is occurring.

Edit: Also Manchin is denying he'll leave the party. My guess is he doesn't like that the leak means he wasn't going to be able to play it out the 'perfect' way he planned it in his head.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

pr0ner wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:46 pm Joe Manchin is making noise that he's ready to leave the Democratic Party
Wow. Didn’t see that coming. :roll:

Fuck that guy. Good riddance if true. Yes, I’m well aware of what that means, but at this point I think he’s doing more harm than good.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Blackhawk »

After all of the stigginit, he'd be a Republican hero for life if he took away the Democrats' trifecta and gave the Rs control of the Senate.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Smoove_B »

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:33 am After all of the stigginit, he'd be a Republican hero for life if he took away the Democrats' trifecta and gave the Rs control of the Senate.
They effectively have control right now. Nothing needs to change and he loses all his center-stage interest from people funneling money to him once he officially switches sides. I am in the camp that believes he's doing this because of Sinema. He thinks she is about to switch sides and he knows if she does, he's now completely useless.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by El Guapo »

I don't know that I buy the "Manchin may switch parties" stories at this point. At least, I'd be expecting a lot more noise than I guess one Mother Jones article sourced to anonymous "associates". I'd be less surprised if Sinema switched parties at this point.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Wheels still spinning.
Why it matters: The disagreement, recounted to Axios by two senators in the room, underscores how far apart two key members remain as the Democratic Party tries to meet its deadline for reaching an agreement on a budget reconciliation framework by Friday.

It also shows that despite the "kumbaya meeting" between Manchin and Sanders on Monday — after which they posed together for photos — the two remain sharply divided.
Manchin's comfort level with zero as a final number — and his willingness to threaten Sanders with it publicly at Wednesday's lunch for Senate committee chairs — reveals a stark reality for Democratic negotiators: Manchin can control the final dollar amount.
Spokespersons for both Manchin and Sanders declined comment.
Driving the news: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), chairman of a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, described the incident as a "a difference in opinion."

"Joe said, 'I'm comfortable with nothing,' Bernie said, 'We need to do three-and-a-half [trillion dollars].' The truth is both of them are in different spots."
Manchin said, "I'm comfortable with zero," forming a "zero" with his thumb and index finger, Tester reiterated, saying he believes the West Virginia Democrat can live with himself if the Senate doesn't pass any of the president's $2-$3.5 trillion package.
Another witness, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said, "There was a vigorous, 10-minute discussion. Bernie said, '$6 trillion.'"

"[Manchin] said, 'We shouldn't do it at all,'" Coons recalled, himself making the goose-egg symbol as he recounted the conversation.
He said Manchin continued, "This will contribute to inflation. We've already passed the American Rescue Plan. We should just pass the infrastructure bill and, you know, pause for six months."
Edit:

I still suspect he isn't negotiating in good faith.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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King of the DINO's.

Joe "T-Rex" Manchin.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Octavious »

I'm starting to think we'll get nothing. Manchin cut out all the environmental stuff and the other asshat is saying 0 taxes raised. Which pretty much kills the entire thing. If we do end up with anything it's going to just big a turd. :oops:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Just in case anyone didn't think Sinema represents chaos her stance on the taxes is just incoherent. When the Trump tax plan reduced the Corporate tax rate, the discussion of the rate was supposed to land it at 28%. It was instead dropped to 21%. She voted against it. Now they are talking 25% and she is against it. That makes sense.

This MSNBC story has the right headline
Sinema reportedly fights to protect unpopular tax breaks she opposed
It perfectly captures the absolute inanity of the moment. And that's the only thing I can take away from this whole thing - this country is absurd. The systems that govern it have perverse, corrupt incentives and 'we the people' are powerless no matter who we vote for. I'm beginning to accept that this is not a system worth saving. Unfortunately it'll probably only get worse and more evil.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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It’s almost as if someone paid her off.

:roll:

Probably T-Rex as well.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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5 Theories on What Sinema Wants.

The one I find most compelling is that she's a vain idiot susceptible to flattery, and rich lobbyists have her ear at the moment.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Alefroth »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:20 pm 5 Theories on What Sinema Wants.

The one I find most compelling is that she's a vain idiot susceptible to flattery, and rich lobbyists have her ear at the moment.
The counterargument is awesome.

The lobbyist in training seems really possible as well.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Alefroth wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:34 pm

The counterargument is awesome.
I just read it.

:lol:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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malchior wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:50 pmI'm beginning to accept that this is not a system worth saving. Unfortunately it'll probably only get worse and more evil.
The eventual Malchior-Drazzil Tag Team Tour is going to be a sight to behold. :D :pop:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Little Raven wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:45 pm
malchior wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:50 pmI'm beginning to accept that this is not a system worth saving. Unfortunately it'll probably only get worse and more evil.
The eventual Malchior-Drazzil Tag Team Tour is going to be a sight to behold. :D :pop:
The big difference is I don't want it to happen because of the next sentence. However, I'm not going to pretend this isn't a system that already was showing over the last few years how undemocratic it was. Popular policies squashed in the favor of enriching the wealthiest few over and over perhaps makes the case that this is not a system we should mourn when its gone. Instead, we should mourn that our society isn't what we thought it was. Maybe the arc of the moral universe never was going to sustainably bend towards justice.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Washington Post drops a profile on Sinema.

It describes a Sinema who is a loner in the caucus - ironic considering the book she wrote on politics - and who isn't communicating with nearly anyone except the White House. Biden is left with the only option which is to treat her with kid gloves. The story even quotes the administration as saying she is negotiating in good faith despite the rest of the story painting a different picture.

It's an odd piece. I don't know if WaPo left the inconsistencies in the piece intentionally but there are problems that undermine the narrative. Especially around the sudden emergence of her hard stance against tax rate changes. The story reports that Sinema told Schumer that position in August. That's seems...like complete horse shit. Especially since then the story then goes on to say that the WH broke the news to the Senate Finance Committee, it took them by surprise, and it immediately leaked to the press. It sort of undermines the entire idea.
Senate Democrats left their weekly lunch on Tuesday proclaiming that every person in the room — from Vermont’s Bernie Sanders to West Virginia’s Joe Manchin III — was unified on the urgency of getting a deal on President Biden’s ambitious domestic policy package.

Conspicuously absent was Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the inscrutable Arizonan whose refusal to discuss publicly her views on Biden’s biggest domestic priority has angered many Democrats.

While her colleagues dined, Sinema was elsewhere in the Capitol, huddling with White House officials continuing to negotiate on the tax code, climate initiatives and the social safety net, according to two aides. She had met with Biden earlier that day at the White House, and, unbeknown to many House and Senate Democrats, had been engaging in talks with a small handful of colleagues.

...

But Sinema’s whereabouts on the day of the Senate lunch were emblematic of her actual approach, according to people directly familiar with it: Eschew all but a select few congressional colleagues, focus on negotiating directly with the president and his senior aides, burrow in on policy details — and ignore the frustration of those not privy to her thinking.

...

Sinema is drawing increasing ire from Democrats who say she is the lone holdout on provisions that are universally popular among Democratic lawmakers and with the public. Though she is not up for reelection until 2024, she is already facing threats of a primary challenge from her left. And a handful of members who served on an informal advisory council for her Senate office quit this week, although one has since walked back some of his criticisms.

The big source of dissension between Sinema and virtually every other Democrat on Capitol Hill is her opposition to raising the current 21 percent corporate tax rate and the individual rate for the highest earners — figures set into law in 2017 under President Donald Trump and the GOP-led Congress.

“The hypocrisy of voting against Trump’s tax cuts and then not being willing to restore rates in any way to what they were before the cuts is stunning,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), one of the most vocal intraparty critics of Sinema in Congress. “It makes you wonder, what are the special interests that are driving that decision? It’s obviously not conviction, because she voted against the tax cuts in the first place.”

Biden himself, in one of several moments of unusual candor during a CNN town hall on Thursday, said Sinema’s opposition to raising a “single penny” through increasing the corporate or individual rates was “where it sort of breaks down.” Sinema’s case to both other lawmakers and Biden is that simply raising the rates will not address the question of tax avoidance nor improve competitiveness, a spokesman said, and her office says both Biden and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) have been aware of her views on taxes since early August.
Last edited by malchior on Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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:pop:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Drazzil wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:09 pm :violence-uzi:
FTFY
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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malchior wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:35 pm
It's an odd piece. I don't know if WaPo left the inconsistencies in the piece intentionally but there are problems that undermine the narrative.
I think the most likely answer is that as the story says, Sinema is focused on negotiating exclusively with the White House as much as possible. So the only real sources for that side of things is Sinema's office and the Biden administration. Sinema wants to paint herself in as positive a light as possible, and the Biden administration wants to avoid calling her a self-serving liar because they need her on board to pass anything. So you're left with this inconsistencies because the pro-Sinema story is mostly bullshit. But at the same time if you're the WaPo you can get at the inconsistencies but you don't want to directly call Biden / Sinema sources liars.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Total agreement. That was my analysis as well. As an aside, I don't know if this trend of just printing facts without binding context is in anyone's interest anymore. I get that trusting the reader here is the adult thing to do but we're not a country with a whole lot of adults left.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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malchior wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:49 am Total agreement. That was my analysis as well. As an aside, I don't know if this trend of just printing facts without binding context is in anyone's interest anymore. I get that trusting the reader here is the adult thing to do but we're not a country with a whole lot of adults left.
I agree in general. The challenge here from the WaPo reporter's perspective I think is that a lot of these are "soft" lies - like the Biden administration saying that Sinema is negotiating with them in good faith. There's a lot of contextual reasons to doubt that, but other than laying out the facts of what else is happening, and adding in a quote or two from people like Ro Khanna blasting Sinema, you can't really prove that it's wrong exactly.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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As to the good faith? That's the typical fluff. There is no real attack surface. Though there is a line to go after. I think even a sentence challenging the idea that she told them about this tax position in August was one where they could have landed a blow. It is ripe for a quote from someone mocking the very idea.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Unagi wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:04 am
Drazzil wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:09 pm :violence-uzi:
FTFY
:whistle:
Daehawk wrote:Thats Drazzil's chair damnit.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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This seems like an easy to action punch list.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Octavious »

It will be a sad collection of things once Manchin is done with his demands. What a sack of shit.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Octavious wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:11 pm It will be a sad collection of things once Manchin is done with his demands. What a sack of shit.
We'll have 'we tried' efforts at all sorts of things, and nothing resembling the original plans. Hey, at least we made noise about keeping the country as inhabitable as it's been in the past!
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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The really troubling thing coming out of reporting today is that leadership feels pressured by the tight gubenatorial races next week. They'll likely whip to pass the BIF no matter what. Jayapal and Pelosi fought today over this very issue publicly.

The subtext here is that exposes a major potential fracture point. If Manchin or Sinema then sabotage reconciliation, it could implode the Biden coalition for 2022 and beyond. In other words, risk levels for a Democratic meltdown are probably higher than they should be.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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We just have to live with Manchin. :angry-fire: On the bright side, the tattooed man-mountain that is running for Toomey's seat gives me a bit of hope that PA will have two Democratic senators since I don't know when.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Default wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:23 pm We just have to live with Manchin. :angry-fire: On the bright side, the tattooed man-mountain that is running for Toomey's seat gives me a bit of hope that PA will have two Democratic senators since I don't know when.
You mean the Lt. Gov?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Open brainstorming with two people wielding ultimate veto power is going well. It feels like Manchin isn't a hard no on some sort of tax on billionaires but it doesn't feel like a sustainable approach in any case to target a very small population. What happens when they figure out how to avoid it?

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Alefroth wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:58 pm
Default wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:23 pm We just have to live with Manchin. :angry-fire: On the bright side, the tattooed man-mountain that is running for Toomey's seat gives me a bit of hope that PA will have two Democratic senators since I don't know when.
You mean the Lt. Gov?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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I think this will be less FDR 2.0 and a lot more Carter 2.0 at this rate. To be clear, I'm not advocating for any particular in the bill. However, as actual tangible stuff that actually would have benefited families hits the floor, the more the Democrats dig their own political graves and probably democracy in America as well.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Octavious »

Ya this is a joke at this point. They can't even find a way to fund it since both want no new taxes. I think it's dead Jim. Along with this country.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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At this point I wonder whether McConnell made an explicit deal with Manchin and/or Sinema whereby McConnell allows the BIF bill to pass (to give Manchin and Sinema a bipartisan deal to run on) in exchange for gutting / killing the reconciliation bill. Obviously that's been McConnell's game in allowing the bipartisan bill to pass, but I wonder whether there was a very explicit quid pro quo discussed between the three of them.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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The United States is the only nation (out of ~41 comparable) that does not provide paid family leave. It's disgraceful and it's happening because just like vaccinations and masks, corporations rule Congress.

More details here:
Globally, the average paid maternity leave is 29 weeks, and the average paid paternity leave is 16 weeks, the center’s data shows up to 2019.

There is one element of the paid leave proposal, however, that would put the United States at the forefront internationally: its very broad definition of family and caregiving. It would cover care for all types of loved ones, including in-laws, domestic partners and people who are the “equivalent” of family.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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There are so many things that we would already have right now if the damn Senate didn't empower the most reactionary parts of the country.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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El Guapo wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:21 pm At this point I wonder whether McConnell made an explicit deal with Manchin and/or Sinema whereby McConnell allows the BIF bill to pass (to give Manchin and Sinema a bipartisan deal to run on) in exchange for gutting / killing the reconciliation bill. Obviously that's been McConnell's game in allowing the bipartisan bill to pass, but I wonder whether there was a very explicit quid pro quo discussed between the three of them.
I mean I almost wish for evil schemes. It'd make this at least cogent. I really doubt it though. This really is just a system that has long been cracking apart just flying apart at the seams. The whole thing top to bottom exposes many of the broken mechanisms of the machine. Especially the Senate.

There is no ability to pass legislation that is popular that involves raising taxes on the wealthy. The entire reconciliation package was expressly built around that idea. Surprising few it's really looking pretty much impossible. We had tons of evidence prior to this, but when this is done we'll at some level proved that out. Support for paid leave is at supermajority levels. Even CATO has reporting/polling showing this*.

* Though CATO tries to throw cold water by showing that people don't want it when they have to pay for it. Which I'm sure has nothing to do with how the polling/questions are framed at all...
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Random thought - this is the way to do the new politics. You run on a sweeping agenda, introduce it as a big splashy thing, and then kill off the crucial pieces of it one by one in a public hunger games pageant that lasts months. Seems like a super effective way to build faith in the system. :doh:
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