Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

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Drazzil
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Drazzil »

malchior wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:55 pm Random thought - this is the way to do the new politics. You run on a sweeping agenda, introduce it as a big splashy thing, and then kill off the crucial pieces of it one by one in a public hunger games pageant that lasts months. Seems like a super effective way to build faith in the system. :doh:
Why oh why doesn't this site have a guillotine emoji?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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It comes down to having enough votes that 2 unreliable Senators can’t block change. Blaming the system lets the American voter off the hook.

Too many of us are stupid and gullible or mean and deplorable enough to support Trump’s brand of Republican. That’s why we’re dysfunctional. Not a single Republican dares to vote for any Democrat’s policy.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zarathud wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:14 pm It comes down to having enough votes that 2 unreliable Senators can’t block change. Blaming the system lets the American voter off the hook.

Too many of us are stupid and gullible or mean and deplorable enough to support Trump’s brand of Republican. That’s why we’re dysfunctional. Not a single Republican dares to vote for any Democrat’s policy.
This is a complicated failure. These two issues are amongst many that aren't mutually exclusive. The Senate and EC were in a race condition for years. It just didn't become obvious that both were going to break our system down until well after it could be solved. The voters also got worse over time. We had glimpses how rotten the GOP base years ago but a lot of people simply wouldn't face it. Heck some still won't!
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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FFS. He's bullshitting. This isn't super hard to get information. The man is fucking embarrassing.



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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Smoove_B wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:23 pm The United States is the only nation (out of ~41 comparable) that does not provide paid family leave.
From the What's In It For Me Dept.:

I was hoping that my state PFML deductions would stop. (Mass. has 12 weeks of paid family leave financed by a small payroll deduction.) It was one of two parts of the Dem agenda that could have affected me directly, albeit in a small way. Although I suppose MA would've kept its own program going anyway when the feds cut their plan to 4 weeks.

The other part, which will probably die too, is expanded in-home elder care. I'm likely to need that before too much longer since I'm 64 and have no family.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Build Something.... So they took out dental and eye care for seniors because screw them. Took out most of the environmental stuff... Took out the paid family leave.... Sigh... The daycare stuff is nice I guess but man Manchin really fn gutted the fuck out of it.

And it probably still won't pass. ;)
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Paul Begala said it well yesterday about the VA race. He said the Democrats managed to: depress Democratic base turnout, turn off swing voters, and invigorate the GOP base all at once. Anyway, they have to pass something and I still expect something to pass. It'd be political Armageddon for them.
Last edited by malchior on Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Oh wait the daycare is for only 6 years...extended expanded child tax cut a whopping 1 year. This is garbage... It's something to do something...
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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That's a hell of turn in 6 paragraphs.

NY Times
“It’s a good day,” Mr. Biden said as he arrived. “Everyone’s on board” with his proposal, he added.

He was pushing to convince liberal members that a final compromise was close enough to allow them to support a separate, $1 trillion infrastructure bill that has already passed the Senate.

But liberals were still skeptical and said they wanted more than talking points.

“There’s been so many changes in this process — so many people, you know, yes, no, doing the Hokey Pokey, one foot in one foot out,” said Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, as she headed into the meeting. “We need certainty that we’re going to be able to deliver.”

Even Democratic leaders said Mr. Biden had his work cut out for him.

“I wish I could say yes, but there’s a great deal of uncertainty within the caucus as to what’s contained in the deal,” Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat, told reporters when asked if he was confident all 50 senators backed the plan. “I will tell you there is a will to do it.”
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the thread title's definitive answer is 'yes.' This is a shitshow all around. Something is likely to pass, but the chance of it being even loosely related to the platform on which these folks were elected is zero.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zaxxon wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:15 am As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the thread title's definitive answer is 'yes.' This is a shitshow all around. Something is likely to pass, but the chance of it being even loosely related to the platform on which these folks were elected is zero.
Yup.This has been more a tale of a broken Senate but Biden looks ... like a disaster. He spent all his time focused on this travesty while other threats loom. If this was his plan to try to save the country he has miscalculated badly. He still has 3 years ahead (at least) but let's be honest. This was almost certainly his shot.

Edit: As an aside, this big push was meant to give him a good story for the COP26 conference. He goes there empty handed showing that the United States has a complete inability to do anything much less face the climate crisis. Even if the BIF was in his hand it is carbon POSITIVE right now even with the clean energy investments.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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malchior wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:49 amYup.This has been more a tale of a broken Senate but Biden looks ... like a disaster. He spent all his time focused on this travesty while other threats loom. If this was his plan to try to save the country he has miscalculated badly. He still has 3 years ahead (at least) but let's be honest. This was almost certainly his shot.
The fear (ok, my fear) is that this absolute disaster means he really only has under a year and a half left [before the red surge in the 2022 elections takes effect]. He's certainly not ramping up enthusiasm.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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I only say 3 years because the President still has lots of tools at his disposal that don't rely on Congress. So I wouldn't count him out 100% but I am not seeing any willingness to use them. Trade policy hasn't improved much measurably over Trump for example. He is on track to approve more oil and gas drilling than any President except W (really). The jury is out on DOJ but it isn't looking good. But yep on paper he has a year left for a legislative change but really that window closes by spring. They'll be pivoted into mid-term madness by then.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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We are in hell

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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No, seriously...

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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I'm still a little shaken by the pandering to narcissism here in a delicate moment...but back on topic.

Out of Biden's declaration that everyone is on board (though they aren't) - it looks like Pelosi is going to try to get a vote on the BIF today. A huge, huge gamble. It seems Obama has even backed this play according to some reports and has been working the phones. The progressives are going to be under immense pressure to go along or else the serious people will say they are the problem. A lot is happening here and it is pretty clear the WH has decided a hail mary throw adding a ton of pressure is worth it here.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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This should work out well. :roll:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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:clap:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Also, hey look the progressives compromise again. It's a smart play on Jayapal's part because it a trade. We'll vote if you show us that you aren't bluffing. Spoiler: She knows they are bluffing.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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No sign of Lucy holding this football, right?

Right?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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I mean I feel like the people as Charlie is an evergreen concept but Pelosi did drop the actual text of the bill. Build Back Better. Now all they need is a promise from Biden that he has 50 Senators. Let's see what happens.

Manchin made similar demands about the language. Next up will be that he'll need to study it so they should pause but let's get that BIF done pronto! To give him some space this is a sleek 1684 pages so I'd forgive him claiming he doesn't know what it says. Mostly because it is impossible to digest it without a large team.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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In case you want to read about what Manchin and Sinema did to the infrastructure effort:
It would expand Medicare to cover hearing, but not dental and vision because of Manchin’s concerns over cost and Medicare’s own solvency.

A clean electricity program was jettisoned, and Manchin raised a red flag over a proposed carbon fee last month when he argued it would do little to bolster the development of new technologies and would more likely become a bludgeon against the coal industry.

He has also voiced concerns over any methane fee that would penalize natural gas companies, telling The Hill this week: “You’ve got to give an incentive to do the right thing. ... Methane pricing done wrong is very detrimental, it won’t happen.”

Corporate tax rates could not be raised because of Sinema’s objections. The Arizona Democrat also said no to hikes on individual rates for the wealthy.

Manchin described an effort to tax the wealth of billionaires’ investments as “convoluted,” and it didn’t make the final package. “I don’t like it. I don’t like the connotation that we’re targeting different people,” Manchin told reporters when asked about it.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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In Manchin's defense (something never uttered before by me), the billionaire tax as proposed is absurd, and would be terrible for common investors, as well (due to the effect all that forced selling by the billionaires would have on their company's stock). Might as well tax capital gains on lived-in homes, forcing people to sell them. Tax the consumption, not artificially-created taxable events on held equities.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Ok, so you compromise on that one thing and jettison it. Why on earth are these two clowns driving the entire negotiation? What % of the American population do they represent? They should be flogged.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Smoove_B wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:07 am Ok, so you compromise on that one thing and jettison it. Why on earth are these two clowns driving the entire negotiation? What % of the American population do they represent? They should be flogged.
Absolutely. I'm not actually defending Manchin. Just the silliness of that one proposal. It's up there with the union requirement for EV credit.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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I totally get that there are likely elements of the plan that are way out there. But try to have a serious conversation with anyone about why your body has one insurance policy, but your teeth, eyes and ears require a separate, distinct policy. Truly - explain the logic. There's zero reason for it to not be part of Medicare, but once we go down that route, next thing you know we're giving everyone medical coverage and we certainly can't have that.

It's beyond frustrating to read all this and watch it unfold in slow motion.

I guess I'll comfort myself knowing that in the end, none of this really matters because the next election cycle "Cruelty is the Point" returns to the forefront.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Smoove_B wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:07 am Ok, so you compromise on that one thing and jettison it. Why on earth are these two clowns driving the entire negotiation? What % of the American population do they represent? They should be flogged.
Manchin gets to be the key Senator because we have a system that disproportionately empowers the rural reactionary parts of the country. If we had a Senate that reflected the national share of the Senate vote then the Senate would be something like 55-45 and we wouldn't have to care much about what Manchin thinks about anything.

Sinema is the one that's crazy, though. Manchin is at least from an R + 35 state, so any progressive policies that we get out of his Senate seat is mana from heaven at the end of the day. Sinema has no such defense.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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What I don't forgive these two on is that they've been playing a game the whole time. They are the 1-2 punch that has kept this endless negotiation going. All this talk about good faith is bullshit.

That is why you seeing a massive crackup under way. The caucus can see that this coalition is clearly not sustainable. It can't achieve anything approaching what they ran on and that puts them all under pressure back home. We knew last year that Biden was going to have a challenge managing this coalition. But it has borne wicked, thorny fruit.

It led to several deadlines blown, endless negative coverage, and abysmal poll numbers which only further imperil the effort. You can draw a bright line from the leadership mismanagement of this situation to the incredibly ill-advised influence sapping display he delivered yesterday. Showing up with false positivity saying everyone is on board to hear it instantly contradicted AS HE DELIVERED THE SPEECH...hope is all but gone.

Edit: Just to highlight real long-standing damage potential from this. He wanted a deal to have something in hand when he showed up in Europe to face our allies. As they have become increasingly skeptical and worried that Trump will return. That makes getting this done even more important. He is going to make commitments and we damn well better back him up.
Rasmussen said world leaders are watching Virginia’s gubernatorial election on Tuesday and would view a loss — or even a narrow win — by Democrat Terry McAuliffe as a warning sign. “It would add to some skepticism in Europe that the declaration that ‘America is back’ is only temporary,” Rasmussen said.

With Trump holding out the prospect of running for president again, and given a strong chance of claiming the GOP nomination if he does, foreign leaders are viewing Biden’s actions through the prism of American politics to a degree rare in recent years.

“After Biden, it may be Trump again,” said Gerard Araud, a former French ambassador to the United States. “So we Europeans, we have to learn to be grown up, we have to learn to defend or to handle our interests by ourselves.”

Biden flew on Thursday to Rome, where he met with Pope Francis and will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron, then head into a two-day summit this weekend of the Group of 20 economic powers. Next week, he will take part in a major climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland.

Biden had hoped to bolster his credibility by arriving at those summits having struck a deal on his infrastructure and safety-net bills. That would codify some of his pledges to the international community, making his commitments harder for future presidents to undo.

On Thursday morning, Biden announced a framework deal for the bills. Not all congressional Democrats immediately signed on, and some details remained to be worked out. But the party appeared to be heading toward agreement, allowing the president to say he expected to have a deal in hand soon.

Biden in recent days had implored lawmakers to move on his agenda in part by arguing that a failure to do so would erode his standing abroad. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told CNN that during a meeting with liberal lawmakers, the president “looked people in the eye and said the prestige of the United States is on the line.”
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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We have more insight due to reporting from Yahoo into what can only be called Biden's impossible tight line walk on reconciliation. There seem to be two views. The senior leadership view (Pelosi/Hoyer) is that they came very close to passing the infrastructure bill on Thursday. The thinking there was Biden needed to pressure a vote. Jayapal had reportedly however warned Klain that the vote would fail if he tried that. Biden believed Jayapal from all accounts.

Assuming the story is accurate there are a few things to digest here. This issue may be opening a rift between Pelosi and Biden *and* possibly Manchin/Sinema. I'll cover the second set first. In theory, if Manchin/Sinema are acting in good faith they might see him coddling the progressives. After all he hasn't put much pressure on the progressives to pass their long-dormant bipartisan bill. As to Pelosi, she could very possibly be frustrated with Biden siding with the progressives. Though she very well might also realize the necessity of the coalition management here. I also think we can assume that the Jayapal / Pelosi relationship is probably not great right now though not nearly as bad as the complete lack of trust with Sinema/Manchin.

The story also has a lot more background but it seems to indicate that the interface with Congress is driven by Klain who has a deep relationship with the progressives and less so with moderates/senior leadership. That's not entirely news but it does give some insight into why this process has been fraught with peril. It also makes some sense. The WH is engaging with the hold outs on either side, thinks they need to be careful, and the established loyalists seem to think pressure will resolve the issue. Not moving is creating a lot of repeated situations where they are getting embarrassed by the inaction and also delaying moving on to other business.

The bottom line is this is very, very complicated and risk of failure is still high. Whatever is going to come out of this is going to be entirely unsatisfying as this just went on far too long and had too many near misses. They've almost certainly done lasting damage to party brand, we'll get a sense of it early next week in the McAullife/Murphy elections, and it'll potentially even have international ramifications with Biden in Europe.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi brought President Joe Biden in this week to finally close the deal on Democrats’ domestic agenda. Rep. Pramila Jayapal had other plans.

As Biden prepared for the high-stakes meeting with House Democrats on Thursday, Jayapal made an urgent plea on a call with White House chief of staff Ron Klain: Don’t send the president to pressure liberals to vote Thursday on the Senate’s infrastructure bill without a more progressive social spending bill that’s fully done.

Klain pushed Jayapal, who leads the Congressional Progressive Caucus, to vote for the infrastructure bill during the call, according to a source familiar with their conversation. Jayapal responded that she wanted to avoid sending Biden off to Europe on Thursday with a failed vote, according to multiple Democrats.
Last edited by malchior on Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Octavious wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:52 am Build Something.... So they took out dental and eye care for seniors because screw them.
God. Dammit.

The only reason I can get my eyes checked is because I technically have cataracts, so my optometrist games the system to write off my annual exams as medically necessary.

Since I lost access to dental insurance in 2006, I've had teeth pulled twice. Each time required a payment plan that took literally years to pay off. I haven't had a dental checkup or cleaning in 15 years. My teeth ache. Constantly. I've got so many broken or missing teeth that I have a net total of 1/2" of chewing surface distributed across both sides of my mouth, which makes it hard to chew a lot of food, and impossible to eat others (ever try to gum a pretzel?) This was my chance to not be in pain, to not have to keep my lips closed when I smile, and to possibly end up being able to eat like other people. I really had hope that this would happen.

Nope. And it's genuinely heartbreaking.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Blackhawk wrote: Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:28 am
Octavious wrote: Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:52 am Build Something.... So they took out dental and eye care for seniors because screw them.
God. Dammit.

The only reason I can get my eyes checked is because I technically have cataracts, so my optometrist games the system to write off my annual exams as medically necessary.

Since I lost access to dental insurance in 2006, I've had teeth pulled twice. Each time required a payment plan that took literally years to pay off. I haven't had a dental checkup or cleaning in 15 years. My teeth ache. Constantly. I've got so many broken or missing teeth that I have a net total of 1/2" of chewing surface distributed across both sides of my mouth, which makes it hard to chew a lot of food, and impossible to eat others (ever try to gum a pretzel?) This was my chance to not be in pain, to not have to keep my lips closed when I smile, and to possibly end up being able to eat like other people. I really had hope that this would happen.

Nope. And it's genuinely heartbreaking.
How much does it cost to extract teeth in US that you need a payment plan that took years to pay off?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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We're in the U.S.. Take what it would cost in any other country then multiply that by 40....maybe 60, depending on which zip code you live in.

Our health system is broken...badly.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Victoria Raverna wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:34 am
How much does it cost to extract teeth in US that you need a payment plant that took years to pay off?
I don't remember. I just remember that I was writing checks for at least two or three years.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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And that isn't unique to non-insured folks either. Dental insurance in the United States typically has pretty paltry coverage. Considering the premiums involved they essentially are pre-paid routine care and some risk coverage for minor restoration work. Have an accident? You're fucked.

I had a fall on ice almost 20 years ago. I did quite a bit of damage to my mouth and teeth. The work to repair it was deemed "cosmetic". Eventually not being able to chew solid food? Too bad - it's really only about the looks or something. :roll:

So I took out a pension loan at the time (good fucking lord!) and spent a relatively unaffordable amount to get some of the work done. It turned out just decent but I couldn't afford it anyway. Better was impossible. Within 5 years I needed to get additional work related to the accident. Luckily by that point I had significant savings as that body of work was 5 figures. That set of work is expected to last 15-20 years before needing replacement. So I specific savings account set aside for it. 'Murica!
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Wife has reached her $1,800 annual dental coverage limit and is postponing a filling until insurance recharges in January, unless the cavity becomes painful before then. Our dentist charges $175 for a cleaning, so I imagine a filling will be at least double that. The insurance racket is so bad for providers that the dentist dropped out of our Delta Dental network a few years ago, so now insurance only covers 50% of most procedures...he bills us for the full amount directly, and we have to seek repayment from Delta. Neither providers nor patients are very happy with dental insurance, so adding it to Medicare would've been a pretty big deal.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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My entire family has bad teeth. My father had full dentures before he was 30, as do both of my sisters and my brother. My front teeth are crooked - as a child I had a second row come in in front of the baby teeth before the baby teeth fell out, and we could never afford the work necessary to fix it, so my lateral incisors are way out in front of the all of my other teeth. One of my upper central incisors has a chip out of the bottom and a visible crack running the entire length. Part of my family's problem is thin enamel, and what I have is eroded, so my teeth are yellowed, rough, and uneven, plus they're permanently stained. The one incisor and three molars are broken, and four molars have been removed. The ones that are left alternate, top and bottom - in other words, they don't line up for chewing.

And they ache. Constantly. Not sharp pain ache, just a mild discomfort that's always present. And they're sensitive, and have enough holes that I have avoid anything sweet that's sticky or I'm in for a lot of pain.

Only two pairs of molars still line up. That means that I'm two teeth away from a liquid diet for life. And the four teeth that those two can come from are in terrible shape. It's honestly a matter of 'when', and a full set of dentures, with the associated procedures, would cost between $7,000 and $10,000 out of pocket. Partials would be less if I were eligible, but not enough less to be possible. And yes, I've looked into programs, dental schools, etc. They're either a discount that takes an impossible price down to impossible, or I'm not eligible.

And the thing is, I take good care of my teeth. I floss, I brush, I rinse, and I do so multiple times per day for longer than recommended. I just have bad luck combined with a childhood without dentistry when it was needed.
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
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Skinypupy
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Skinypupy »

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 10:13 am Luckily by that point I had significant savings as that body of work was 5 figures. That set of work is expected to last 15-20 years before needing replacement. So I specific savings account set aside for it. 'Murica!
As someone who has had 5 figure dentistry work before, I can sympathize. Had a root canal that got infected and required emergency surgery (on a holiday), then TMJ therapy for the following year. It was rather ridiculous to see how much it all cost.
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malchior
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Skinypupy wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 11:32 am
malchior wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 10:13 am Luckily by that point I had significant savings as that body of work was 5 figures. That set of work is expected to last 15-20 years before needing replacement. So I specific savings account set aside for it. 'Murica!
As someone who has had 5 figure dentistry work before, I can sympathize. Had a root canal that got infected and required emergency surgery (on a holiday), then TMJ therapy for the following year. It was rather ridiculous to see how much it all cost.
I didn't get into it above but I have a bit of rough alternate plan for the re-up. I have a friend who did what people in the Southwest do. She flew to Mexico to have extensive work done. I'd need to price it out when it gets closer but the rough math is she achieved 80% procedure cost reductions. It involved two trips and was about 30% the cost including the travel. It's absurd.
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Octavious
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Octavious »

I think we know the answer to the original question. Yes they will self destruct. Machin has said he's not in on the 1.75 Trillion bill. We're fooked.. And tomorrow will probably get creamed in Virginia. So much winning.
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