Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Little Raven »

So sayeth the French.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, normally a pretty cool customer, immediately compared Biden to Trump, just “without the tweets.”

"This unilateral, sudden and unforeseeable decision very much recalls what Mr. Trump would do," Le Drian said in an interview with France Info radio, amid cries of “treason” and “betrayal” from Paris.
There have been a couple of good essays in the Times explaining exactly why France is so upset with us in the last few days.
Make no mistake. This is a crisis, not a spat.

The new partnership announced last week between the United States, Britain and Australia, in which Australia would be endowed with nuclear-powered submarines, has left the French angry and in shock. And not just because of the loss of their own deal, signed in 2016, to provide Australia with submarines.

...

The fallout is about much more than a scrapped business deal, Gallic pride and bruised egos. This diplomatic bombshell has crudely exposed the unwritten rules of great-power competition, in which France cannot be a player unless it carries the weight of the European Union behind it. The past week has been about 21st-century geopolitics and the brutal adjustment of old alliances to new realities.

France considers itself a “resident power” in the Indo-Pacific region, a crucial battleground for the rivalry between America and China, because it possesses several islands and maintains four naval bases there. It developed its own strategy for the region in 2018 and has been pushing since then for the European Union to come up with a similar project. Ironically, the European Union’s Indo-Pacific strategy was presented on the very day the deal, known as AUKUS, became public. The plan was, of course, drowned out by the uproar.
The United States and Australia went to extraordinary lengths to keep Paris in the dark as they secretly negotiated a plan to build nuclear submarines, scuttling France’s largest defense contract and so enraging President Emmanuel Macron that on Friday he ordered the withdrawal of France’s ambassadors to both nations.

Mr. Macron’s decision was a stunning and unexpected escalation of the breach between Washington and Paris, on a day that the two countries had planned to celebrate an alliance that goes back to the defeat of Britain in the Revolutionary War.

Yet it was driven by France’s realization that two of its closest allies have been negotiating secretly for months. According to interviews with American and British officials, the Australians approached the new administration soon after President Biden’s inauguration and said they had concluded that they had to get out of a $60 billion agreement with France to supply them with a dozen attack submarines.
Basically, we're no longer treating France as an equal partner. They might have expected that from Trump...but Biden? That's gotta sting.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Isgrimnur »

AUKward…
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by El Guapo »

The fallout is about much more than a scrapped business deal, Gallic pride and bruised egos.
Kind of seems like it's not *that* much more than that, though.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Zaxxon »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:56 pm
The fallout is about much more than a scrapped business deal, Gallic pride and bruised egos.
Kind of seems like it's not *that* much more than that, though.
Sounds like it's *exactly* that, actually.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Gotta give it to the French Foreign Minister. If you are supremely pissed off (justified or no), I can't think of a worse insult than comparing Biden to Trump. It's absurd, of course, but I am sure it landed in one way or another in the WH.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Kraken »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:22 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:56 pm
The fallout is about much more than a scrapped business deal, Gallic pride and bruised egos.
Kind of seems like it's not *that* much more than that, though.
Sounds like it's *exactly* that, actually.
Let's bring them in and rename it FRAUKUS, which puts them in front and rolls off the tongue easier anyway. Making England and Australia share a U is the real diplomatic insult here, and we totally put it past them by going last.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by malchior »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:22 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:56 pm
The fallout is about much more than a scrapped business deal, Gallic pride and bruised egos.
Kind of seems like it's not *that* much more than that, though.
Sounds like it's *exactly* that, actually.
I mean we can think that but it really looks like it is more. Several EU leaders are expecting a sit down with Biden officials on October 5th. I expect it is going to a full on Festivus airing of greivances about the way they think they are being treated.

Look at it from their perspective. They had high level meetings and agreed to an approach to China in June. Less than two months later we have a secret deal that appears to be setting the stage for a cold war with...China. France isn't only upset about their pride (which is definitely in there) - they are scared. Trump openly showed distain for them and they saw the election as a close call. Now Biden makes *two* major strategic moves without consulting with the rest of our intelligence and military partners? That's the scene set when France and other EU leaders say the things they are saying which should be troubling to us.

In the grand scheme of things, we knew they were shook by Trump. Yet Biden made choices that impacted their collected security without talking to them. Boiling it down to wounded pride sort of misses the much deeper story here which is that we've been screwing up on the foreign front for years. Ideally, we need to figure out what "we" are doing and get consistent. However, that feels impossible with our political turmoil. And unlike most Americans, the Europeans clearly can see how dysfunctional we are and can't help but fret when they see us doing stuff like this.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

I can’t help but think that creating a ‘Muricatron would also help with this issue.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Unagi »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:56 pm
The fallout is about much more than a scrapped business deal, Gallic pride and bruised egos.
Kind of seems like it's not *that* much more than that, though.
This was my exact thought
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:05 am
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:22 am
El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:56 pm
The fallout is about much more than a scrapped business deal, Gallic pride and bruised egos.
Kind of seems like it's not *that* much more than that, though.
Sounds like it's *exactly* that, actually.
I mean we can think that but it really looks like it is more. Several EU leaders are expecting a sit down with Biden officials on October 5th. I expect it is going to a full on Festivus airing of greivances about the way they think they are being treated.

Look at it from their perspective. They had high level meetings and agreed to an approach to China in June. Less than two months later we have a secret deal that appears to be setting the stage for a cold war with...China. France isn't only upset about their pride (which is definitely in there) - they are scared. Trump openly showed distain for them and they saw the election as a close call. Now Biden makes *two* major strategic moves without consulting with the rest of our intelligence and military partners? That's the scene set when France and other EU leaders say the things they are saying which should be troubling to us.

In the grand scheme of things, we knew they were shook by Trump. Yet Biden made choices that impacted their collected security without talking to them. Boiling it down to wounded pride sort of misses the much deeper story here which is that we've been screwing up on the foreign front for years. Ideally, we need to figure out what "we" are doing and get consistent. However, that feels impossible with our political turmoil. And unlike most Americans, the Europeans clearly can see how dysfunctional we are and can't help but fret when they see us doing stuff like this.
I do have a few questions about the whole thing from what I've read:

(1) Most of the articles indicate that the secrecy around this was at the request of Australia, which was worried that France would try to scuttle / ruin the nuclear sub deal if they got wind of it. How reasonable a fear is that? What could / would France have done if they'd learned about this in advance?

(2) How much does this impact French / EU security? From the article in this thread it sounds like France has ideas about being a major player in containing China because it has a few islands and naval bases in the pacific but...that seems likely to be overblown? Seems like Australia and the U.S. have much more skin in the game in terms of containing China in the pacific, so it doesn't seem surprising that the U.S. would prioritize making sure that Australia is aligned and on the same page vs. France (to the extent that they can't keep both happy).
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Jaymann »

This is the first time we have been at peace for over 20 years. Florida Man talked, Joe the Biden made it happen.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by YellowKing »

At the risk of sounding like an ass, I really don't care what France thinks.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by LordMortis »

It's hard for me to take this seriously when I fear that Trump or one of his proteges will take the presidency in 2024 and we again experience how different they are. Do I love Biden? Nope. Do I wait for him collapse the US and possibly the world on a nearly daily basis? Nope. Does it suck for France that the US has stunk up its footprint as "superpower" on they world stage. Yep. I don't understand things well enough to know what's right and wrong beyond that. I do understand that even in a series of leaving EU nations in a bind it doesn't put Biden on par with his predecessor. Of course, let's ask EU nations... France... about Russian Petrol and Chinese IP trade.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by El Guapo »

LordMortis wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:24 am It's hard for me to take this seriously when I fear that Trump or one of his proteges will take the presidency in 2024 and we again experience how different they are. Do I love Biden? Nope. Do I wait for him collapse the US and possibly the world on a nearly daily basis? Nope. Does it suck for France that the US has stunk up its footprint as "superpower" on they world stage. Yep. I don't understand things well enough to know what's right and wrong beyond that. I do understand that even in a series of leaving EU nations in a bind it doesn't put Biden on par with his predecessor. Of course, let's ask EU nations... France... about Russian Petrol and Chinese IP trade.
FWIW I don't think the French minister is saying that Biden as a whole is just like Trump. He's more saying that "Trump ignored / disdained the U.S.'s traditional allies. We had been hoping that Biden would return things to normal, but so far he's mostly ignoring us too."

Which is setting aside the merits of whether France has a legit gripe or not.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by malchior »

YellowKing wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:10 am At the risk of sounding like an ass, I really don't care what France thinks.
I get that but it's not just France. France is making the most noise but the EU is standing behind Macron on this. The sub thing is one of several excuses to talk about overarching themes in our major European relationships. This is exactly what many of us were worried about with Trump. We worried he did deep damage to our relationships. Serious people tut tutted it. They were wrong. Again.

In any case, downplaying this is the wrong move too. US foreign policy is a bit of a mess. We hoped Biden would fix it. In his defense, the State Department was gutted by Trump and there was serious brain drain. Maybe he got terrible advice on this. Still, looked at from a broader point of view this is not a good sign. The United States is faced with a Chinese government openly mocking our diplomatic corps earlier this year on US soil and European partners publicly pissed off at us and sniping at us in the press. This is not something we should be shrugging off.

Edit: Just food for thought here but why are we suddenly having increasing issues external to our nation including with friendlies? It's a symptom of what's going on internally. That's why we should listen. Our friends are telling us how we are hurting them. Will we listen?
Last edited by malchior on Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by dbt1949 »

So, are they going to pull out of NATO.....................again?
Demand we leave their country..............................again?
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by LordMortis »

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
YellowKing wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:10 am At the risk of sounding like an ass, I really don't care what France thinks.
I get that but it's not just France. France is making the most noise but the EU is standing behind Macron on this. The sub thing is one of several excuses to talk about overarching themes in our major European relationships. This is exactly what many of us were worried about with Trump. We worried he did deep damage to our relationships. Serious people tut tutted it. They were wrong. Again.

In any case, downplaying this is the wrong move too. US foreign policy is a bit of a mess. We hoped Biden would fix it. In his defense, the State Department was gutted by Trump and there was serious brain drain. Maybe he got terrible advice on this. Still, looked at from a broader point of view this is not a good sign. The United States is faced with a Chinese government openly mocking our diplomatic corps earlier this year on US soil and European partners publicly pissed off at us and sniping at us in the press. This is not something we should be shrugging off.
But what's the right move? Continue to play the EU wanting US investment while they float the Russian economy? The US done fucked up with Trump (who also was floating the Russian economy and happily built better relations between the EU and Russian energy and agriculture and manufacturing and...) who left Biden holding the bag in Afghanistan who left NATO holding the back in Afghanistan. But what has EU done to protect Ukraine and to limit Russian seizing of oil pipelines to sell to the EU? Oh that's right, their government officials join the boards on Russian developments.

https://www.france24.com/en/france/2021 ... pany-board

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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by malchior »

That Russia stuff is a bit of a complicated one. Europe is under immense pressure to improve energy security and one of the biggest partners is just naturally going to be Russia. And to be frank, we were aligned with Europe on that in the sense that we all don't want the Russian economy to collapse. That'd be bad for world-wide security.

There are risks there. We need it to be balanced so Russia doesn't go all Master Blaster on them and embargo them without consequences. Still the Russian economy is important to security and they want to be inside that machinery. That's a good thing.

Anyway, that is a long way to say nearly everyone wants a stable Russian economy but we have sticks for when they act up. That's why when we punish bad Russian foreign policy behaviors we often sanction individuals and companies. It puts pressure on their internal kleptocrats.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by LawBeefaroni »

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm We hoped Biden would fix it. In his defense, the State Department was gutted by Trump and there was serious brain drain. Maybe he got terrible advice on this. Still, looked at from a broader point of view this is not a good sign. The United States is faced with a Chinese government openly mocking our diplomatic corps earlier this year on US soil and European partners publicly pissed off at us and sniping at us in the press. This is not something we should be shrugging off.
This was my first thought. We have been hamstrung in the diplomatic arena and whether it was a misread or actively bad advice, I have no doubt it's because of the Trump-era dismantling of our diplomatic network.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by El Guapo »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:18 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm We hoped Biden would fix it. In his defense, the State Department was gutted by Trump and there was serious brain drain. Maybe he got terrible advice on this. Still, looked at from a broader point of view this is not a good sign. The United States is faced with a Chinese government openly mocking our diplomatic corps earlier this year on US soil and European partners publicly pissed off at us and sniping at us in the press. This is not something we should be shrugging off.
This was my first thought. We have been hamstrung in the diplomatic arena and whether it was a misread or actively bad advice, I have no doubt it's because of the Trump-era dismantling of our diplomatic network.
Well, but also this is why I was asking about Australia's apparent request to keep the negotiations secret. Was Australia's fear reasonable? Were there any other ways to accommodate it? If the U.S. had refused, would the Australians have been angry?
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:02 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:18 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm We hoped Biden would fix it. In his defense, the State Department was gutted by Trump and there was serious brain drain. Maybe he got terrible advice on this. Still, looked at from a broader point of view this is not a good sign. The United States is faced with a Chinese government openly mocking our diplomatic corps earlier this year on US soil and European partners publicly pissed off at us and sniping at us in the press. This is not something we should be shrugging off.
This was my first thought. We have been hamstrung in the diplomatic arena and whether it was a misread or actively bad advice, I have no doubt it's because of the Trump-era dismantling of our diplomatic network.
Well, but also this is why I was asking about Australia's apparent request to keep the negotiations secret. Was Australia's fear reasonable? Were there any other ways to accommodate it? If the U.S. had refused, would the Australians have been angry?
My only question here is whether it's true. That story isn't well founded - we know for sure that the French only knew about it a day or two in advance - though that is a little in dispute with some saying it was only 'hours'. We also know the Australian PM made comments about the original deal at the June Brussels meeting which didn't indicate they were thinking of killing it even though they were deep in talks with us. In general, we have conflicting accounts of the communication breakdown with France.

In any case, IMO it's not all that material. The reality is that we have a serious, serious rift here. This isn't a just some spat and things domestically are starting to get into dangerous political and economic territory again in the coming weeks. This isn't a good time to be distracted by crises of our own making.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Zarathud »

France has always seen itself as a diplomatic leader with ties to its colonial possessions and an international role. The sub deal highlights that the US values it’s role with the UK and Australia more than France. Add in the economics and Macron’s personality, and this is predictable reaction from France.

I think it highlights the damage Trump did to our diplomatic Corp.

But what is more important? Soothing France or curbing China? I think Biden’s preference is clear — China is more threatening. I don’t expect the Republicans are going to really defend France.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Zarathud wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:16 pm France has always seen itself as a diplomatic leader with ties to its colonial possessions and an international role. The sub deal highlights that the US values it’s role with the UK and Australia more than France. Add in the economics and Macron’s personality, and this is predictable reaction from France.

I think it highlights the damage Trump did to our diplomatic Corp.

But what is more important? Soothing France or curbing China? I think Biden’s preference is clear — China is more threatening. I don’t expect the Republicans are going to really defend France.
The trouble with this analysis is that it is not just France at risk now. The whole EU bloc is standing behind France. Also, I keep seeing a lot of binary thinking around this issue (this is a comment all around and not to anyone in particular) which is a problem. Maybe France was always going to be mad but we did nothing to soften the blow. Worse we pulled the carpet out from under them and announced it to the world. That we didn't anticipate the level of backlash and understand Trump's damage fully is much like Afghanistan exposing a major weakness in foreign policy in Biden's administration. This is the type of thing that hangs over a legacy.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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France To Send Its Ambassador Back To The U.S. Following A Macron-Biden Call
On the recent row, "The two leaders agreed that the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners. President Biden conveyed his ongoing commitment in that regard," they said in an unusually descriptive joint statement about the call, which the statement said Biden had requested.

"The two leaders have decided to open a process of in-depth consultations, aimed at creating the conditions for ensuring confidence and proposing concrete measures toward common objectives," they said.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Victoria Raverna »

What I can't understand is why US think China is an enemy? Why US feel threaten by China so much that US is willing to sacrifice relation with allies.

Why not try to be friend with China? Isn't that better for the world?
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by malchior »

Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:31 am What I can't understand is why US think China is an enemy? Why US feel threaten by China so much that US is willing to sacrifice relation with allies.

Why not try to be friend with China? Isn't that better for the world?
The top guy never likes his contender. One upside for the contender is the top guy has serious, serious issues and is declining in real-time. The bad news there is that the top guy can blow up the whole world - both economically and militarily.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

…who also happens to be bipolar/and or schizophrenic.

Edit: actually more like multiple personality disorder.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Unagi »

The way I take it is more: IF there is anyone out there with whom we may have a serious military altercation, it would most likely be China.

Not that they ‘are our enemy’, but that they are the largest entity that we have the weakest relationship with.


But I do think we seriously lack the efforts (both sides, them and us) to actually become ‘allies’ with one another.


Also, it seems the globe is very resilient to let go of there always being a race for who is strongest, richest, etc.

So while I also am endlessly frustrated by the endless animosity the world seems to be designed to produce, it’s the belief that we are all wrapped in a zero sum game that keeps it alive
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Unagi »

Also, I’ve often wondered if ‘they feel’ playing up China has the added benefit of downplaying Russia.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:31 am What I can't understand is why US think China is an enemy? Why US feel threaten by China so much that US is willing to sacrifice relation with allies.

Why not try to be friend with China? Isn't that better for the world?
Some reasons that come to mind (note not all of these are logical or that I agree with…just reasons):

-We are ideologically at odds
-The ‘anti-Communist’ DNA is strong within us
-They are and have been for years, planning for and intent on being a if not the ‘world leader’ (FWIW I hate this phrase and all it’s variations) which puts us into a contentious relationship
-plenty of specific reasons like the constant IP theft issues, slimy tech transfer issues, human rights *cough*, etc

I think what you’re really asking is “why can’t we all just hold hands and get along?” :p

That might be possible when the world is run by the algos. While humans run things..
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:12 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:02 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:18 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm We hoped Biden would fix it. In his defense, the State Department was gutted by Trump and there was serious brain drain. Maybe he got terrible advice on this. Still, looked at from a broader point of view this is not a good sign. The United States is faced with a Chinese government openly mocking our diplomatic corps earlier this year on US soil and European partners publicly pissed off at us and sniping at us in the press. This is not something we should be shrugging off.
This was my first thought. We have been hamstrung in the diplomatic arena and whether it was a misread or actively bad advice, I have no doubt it's because of the Trump-era dismantling of our diplomatic network.
Well, but also this is why I was asking about Australia's apparent request to keep the negotiations secret. Was Australia's fear reasonable? Were there any other ways to accommodate it? If the U.S. had refused, would the Australians have been angry?
My only question here is whether it's true. That story isn't well founded - we know for sure that the French only knew about it a day or two in advance - though that is a little in dispute with some saying it was only 'hours'. We also know the Australian PM made comments about the original deal at the June Brussels meeting which didn't indicate they were thinking of killing it even though they were deep in talks with us. In general, we have conflicting accounts of the communication breakdown with France.

In any case, IMO it's not all that material. The reality is that we have a serious, serious rift here. This isn't a just some spat and things domestically are starting to get into dangerous political and economic territory again in the coming weeks. This isn't a good time to be distracted by crises of our own making.
Which story? That Australia asked the U.S. to keep things secret? Why isn't it well founded?

But I disagree about whether that's material or not. Clearly it's bad that France is very mad at us. But you can't answer the question about whether the Biden administration fucked up, or whether the deal was "worth it", without understanding what the plausible alternatives were.

That said, I will add that the gutting of the State Department under Trump makes me a little more nervous as to whether this was thought through as opposed to a simple fuck up.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:10 amWhich story? That Australia asked the U.S. to keep things secret? Why isn't it well founded?
I've heard several conflicting accounts about the communication failure. The Australia asked for secrecy angle is just one account that has been talked about. Still we have a responsibility for our own relationships.
But I disagree about whether that's material or not. Clearly it's bad that France is very mad at us. But you can't answer the question about whether the Biden administration fucked up, or whether the deal was "worth it", without understanding what the plausible alternatives were.
I get that but I think it still isn't very material if Australia pushed secrecy or not. What I'm getting at here above is what Australia wants has nothing to do with how good/bad our relationship with France is. Sure the sub deal was Australia's but we're the primary partner on all deals no matter what. We gave the French little advance warning and made a huge strategic announcement that surprised them. The sub plan might have been the right move but the alternative was giving them some notice. Would it have mattered? It's unknowable but we didn't do basic things to avoid the blow up like engage them even a little earlier.
That said, I will add that the gutting of the State Department under Trump makes me a little more nervous as to whether this was thought through as opposed to a simple fuck up.
That's the only thing that I give space to Biden on this. They might have gotten terrible advice but at the end of the day this feels like common sense executive leadership 101 or just basic empathy. You don't surprise supposed partners with bad news in plain sight. Hours or even a 'day or two' as some call it is hardly enough time for them to process it much less embarrass them. This is like playing poker and not knowing what your table image is. The EU thinks we're a crazy mess and then we acted like we're crazy mess. How is this not a fuck up. Biden styles himself as a foreign policy master but it looks more and more like Bob Gates pegged him right.

Anyway what I'm getting at here, this was somewhat predictable and Biden or his team didn't see it and had to scramble. And perhaps it would be forgivable if it didn't pull in the whole EU who was shaken by us to begin with. But also this isn't the first time he fucked up a major strategic/foreign policy move in the last few months.
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I get that this was an extremely upsetting event to France. From what I have read, though, the subs that they were building for Australia were already outdated even before they were delivered. I can understand the geopolitical drivers that favor getting advanced nuclear subs in that region to counterbalance China's naval expansionism. I can understand having to make that hard decision. I think it would have been better not to surprise France the way we did, though. I'm not sure how we could have softened the blow, but we shouldn't have caught them by surprise.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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malchior wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:53 am
El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:10 amWhich story? That Australia asked the U.S. to keep things secret? Why isn't it well founded?
I've heard several conflicting accounts about the communication failure. The Australia asked for secrecy angle is just one account that has been talked about. Still we have a responsibility for our own relationships.
But I disagree about whether that's material or not. Clearly it's bad that France is very mad at us. But you can't answer the question about whether the Biden administration fucked up, or whether the deal was "worth it", without understanding what the plausible alternatives were.
I get that but I think it still isn't very material if Australia pushed secrecy or not. What I'm getting at here above is what Australia wants has nothing to do with how good/bad our relationship with France is. Sure the sub deal was Australia's but we're the primary partner on all deals no matter what. We gave the French little advance warning and made a huge strategic announcement that surprised them. The sub plan might have been the right move but the alternative was giving them some notice. Would it have mattered? It's unknowable but we didn't do basic things to avoid the blow up like engage them even a little earlier.
But it is material that Australia pushed secrecy if that's the reason why we kept it from France. If the deal makes sense for the U.S. (and it seems like maybe it did, given that it sounds like it will be much better in terms of keeping Australia's navy competitive, and the U.S. wants that so that Australia can be an effective partner in deterring China), and if Australia's requirement for negotiating the deal is that it be kept secret from France, then what Australia wants has a lot to do with how good / bad our relationship with France. It means that we have a trade-off where we can't keep everyone happy.

I will say that I find it hard to believe that we couldn't give France more than a day or two notice. I also don't really understand why it was so important to Australia to keep it secret from France. I'm guessing that Australia was worried that the deal might fall through yet blow up their deal with France, leaving them with no sub deal.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:21 am
Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:31 am What I can't understand is why US think China is an enemy? Why US feel threaten by China so much that US is willing to sacrifice relation with allies.

Why not try to be friend with China? Isn't that better for the world?
Some reasons that come to mind (note not all of these are logical or that I agree with…just reasons):

-We are ideologically at odds
-The ‘anti-Communist’ DNA is strong within us
-They are and have been for years, planning for and intent on being a if not the ‘world leader’ (FWIW I hate this phrase and all it’s variations) which puts us into a contentious relationship
-plenty of specific reasons like the constant IP theft issues, slimy tech transfer issues, human rights *cough*, etc

I think what you’re really asking is “why can’t we all just hold hands and get along?” :p

That might be possible when the world is run by the algos. While humans run things..
Why don't try to be ally of China. China is not like NK. China has leader that can be reasoned with.

China is no longer a real communist. IP theft issues, slimy teach transfer issues, etc. can be negotiated. As for human rights issue, it didn't stop US from trying to build good relation with India which also has plenty of human rights issue.

This is a friend of America:

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/c ... ters/india
Mob violence against minorities, especially Muslims, by extremist Hindu groups affiliated with the ruling BJP continued throughout the year, amid rumors that they traded or killed cows for beef. Since May 2015, 50 people have been killed and over 250 people injured in such attacks. Muslims were also beaten and forced to chant Hindu slogans. Police failed to properly investigate the crimes, stalled investigations, ignored procedures, and filed criminal cases against witnesses to harass and intimidate them.

Dalits, formerly “Untouchables,” faced violent attacks and discrimination. In September, the Supreme Court issued notices to authorities to examine caste-based exclusion at universities across India following a petition filed by mothers of two students—one Dalit and one from a tribal community—who committed suicide allegedly due to discrimination.

Nearly 2 million people from tribal communities and forest-dwellers remained at risk of forced displacement and loss of livelihoods after a February Supreme Court ruling to evict all those whose claims under the Forest Rights Act were rejected. Amid concerns over flaws in the claim process, the court stayed the eviction temporarily. In July, three UN human rights experts urged the government to conduct a transparent and independent review of the rejected claims, and evict only after it exhausted all options, ensuring redress and compensation.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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El Guapo wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:43 am
LordMortis wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:24 am It's hard for me to take this seriously when I fear that Trump or one of his proteges will take the presidency in 2024 and we again experience how different they are. Do I love Biden? Nope. Do I wait for him collapse the US and possibly the world on a nearly daily basis? Nope. Does it suck for France that the US has stunk up its footprint as "superpower" on they world stage. Yep. I don't understand things well enough to know what's right and wrong beyond that. I do understand that even in a series of leaving EU nations in a bind it doesn't put Biden on par with his predecessor. Of course, let's ask EU nations... France... about Russian Petrol and Chinese IP trade.
FWIW I don't think the French minister is saying that Biden as a whole is just like Trump. He's more saying that "Trump ignored / disdained the U.S.'s traditional allies. We had been hoping that Biden would return things to normal, but so far he's mostly ignoring us too."

Which is setting aside the merits of whether France has a legit gripe or not.
It was a seriously stupid way to phrase it, IMO.

It’s like your daughter has two love interests.
Jack is smart mouthed, rude but dresses well.
Steve is smart mouthed, rude, dresses in all leather, has a serious drug problem and seems abusive.

I guess if the only thing that annoyed me was ‘smart mouthed and rude’, I could say something like “Jack is just like Steve, minus the leather.”
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Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:31 amWhy not try to be friend with China? Isn't that better for the world?
China has no friends.

And that's very much by design. For reasons that only Beijing understands, China has been very deliberately poking every bear. They are bullying the Vietnamese near the Paracel Islands. They are claiming islands in the South China Sea. They are calling Justin Trudeau a "boy" and accusing Canada of being a dog of the US. They are openly threatening to nuke Japan.

This is not a country that WANTS friends. Quite the opposite, actually.

It wasn't always this way. Back in 2008, China was singing a very different tune. Remember the Beijing Olympics? China made a huge show of presenting itself as a rising power eager to take its rightful place in the world, but also one committed to world harmony and understanding. But somewhere around 2010, that all changed. Now China seems to take every opportunity to be as abrasive as possible. I don't think anyone on this side of Great Firewall truly understands why (although many speculate) but it's clearly deliberate.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Little Raven wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:27 pm
Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:31 amWhy not try to be friend with China? Isn't that better for the world?
China has no friends.

And that's very much by design. For reasons that only Beijing understands, China has been very deliberately poking every bear. They are bullying the Vietnamese near the Paracel Islands. They are claiming islands in the South China Sea. They are calling Justin Trudeau a "boy" and accusing Canada of being a dog of the US. They are openly threatening to nuke Japan.

This is not a country that WANTS friends. Quite the opposite, actually.

It wasn't always this way. Back in 2008, China was singing a very different tune. Remember the Beijing Olympics? China made a huge show of presenting itself as a rising power eager to take its rightful place in the world, but also one committed to world harmony and understanding. But somewhere around 2010, that all changed. Now China seems to take every opportunity to be as abrasive as possible. I don't think anyone on this side of Great Firewall truly understands why (although many speculate) but it's clearly deliberate.
US has no friends, too?

China wants friends or at least want to build influence using peaceful means. Compare to what US do, China is far more friendly. You don't see China invaded or occupied other countries. You don't see they bombed other countries. They mostly used soft power. The only recent major conflict was with India but that was minor skirmish.

As for singing different tune, they're still singing the same tune:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... -Assembly2
Third, we must strengthen solidarity and promote mutual respect and win-win cooperation in conducting international relations. A world of peace and development should embrace civilizations of various forms, and must accommodate diverse paths to modernization. Democracy is not a special right reserved to an individual country, but a right for the people of all countries to enjoy. Recent developments in the global situation show once again that military intervention from the outside and so-called democratic transformation entail nothing but harm. We need to advocate peace, development, equity, justice, democracy and freedom, which are the common values of humanity, and reject the practice of forming small circles or zero-sum games.

Differences and problems among countries, hardly avoidable, need to be handled through dialogue and cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual respect. One country's success does not have to mean another country's failure, and the world is big enough to accommodate common development and progress of all countries. We need to pursue dialogue and inclusiveness over confrontation and exclusion. We need to build a new type of international relations based on mutual respect, equity, justice and win-win cooperation, and do the best we can to expand the convergence of our interests and achieve the biggest synergy possible.

The Chinese people have always celebrated and striven to pursue the vision of peace, amity and harmony. China has never and will never invade or bully others, or seek hegemony. China is always a builder of world peace, contributor to global development, defender of the international order and provider of public goods. China will continue to bring the world new opportunities through its new development.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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China has never and will never invade or bully others, or seek hegemony.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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