The Once and Future King: trump's path to restoration

[Unagi]

Here we go.....

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) appointed John Scott — one of the attorneys who represented former president Donald Trump in his lawsuit challenging Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results — as the new secretary of state of Texas.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgntp

[Kraken]

The Guardian has a good snapshot of current progress in overturning the next election should a Democrat win again (although that seems unlikely, the way things are going).

With 2024 on the horizon, democracy experts have identified several ways in which disaster could be averted. Rick Hasen wants new federal guardrails put in place to prevent state legislatures from interfering in elections for purely partisan reasons. Chris Krebs wants a more robust system of post-election audits to act as a legitimate counterpoint to the sham audits promulgated by Trump.

All the authorities on American democracy who spoke to the Guardian were united about the urgency of the moment. New protections need to be put in place, right now, or else the nation will enter the 2024 presidential election cycle with its democratic structures already bloodied and vulnerable to further attack.

Waldman looks to Washington for signs that the peril has been recognised, and that appropriate action is in train. He sees neither.

“The leadership of the federal government doesn’t appear to be treating this as the emergency it is. This is one of the great clashes in American political history. Where is the alarm?”

[YellowKing]

Hard pill to swallow time - there's no urgency because when it becomes the norm, Democrats will take advantage of it as well.

[Remus West]

Hard pill to swallow time - there's no urgency because when it becomes the norm, Democrats will take advantage of it as well.

There will be no Democrats if it becomes the norm. We will become a single Party nation choosing between whomever the Republicans want in office and whomever they want to hold the office.

[malchior]

I think the lack of urgency is partly the fact that many of these people just don't have to worry. They'll be fine. Many of us will be "fine". We've been effectively living in a one-party nation for years when it comes to policy. People have largely been blind to it and accepted it. Voters tacitly ignored that the Republicans tried to commit a coup and covered it up *this year*. We're scraping bottom here.

Hard pill to swallow time - there's no urgency because when it becomes the norm, Democrats will take advantage of it as well.

There will be no Democrats if it becomes the norm. We will become a single Party nation choosing between whomever the Republicans want in office and whomever they want to hold the office.

I agree if you mean functionally. In a form we'll have Democrats much like there are opposition parties in nearly every democratic-form authoritarian state. There are plenty of models to choose from what it might look like when things settled but I've long suspected it'll be a gentler version of Russia. I don't think we'll be tossing journalists out windows for instance but we are already seeing the plutocrats carve up the nation. We'll probably see that trend accelerate.

[Carpet_pissr]

I think the lack of urgency is partly the fact that many of these people just don't have to worry. They'll be fine.

Yep, I suspect this is a huge part of the lack of real push-back.

Take as an example, people like Jamie Gorelick. A cursory view of her political career since being Deputy AG under Clinton is going to make you think ‘dyed in the wool Democrat’. Look a little closer and she’s more like a chameleon, which I suspect is the case for a lot of the real power brokers in DC.

Best buddies, even mentor to, Merrick Garland. Brent Kavanaugh’s neighbor. She was also the defense attorney for Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in the past few years (can’t recall which case). Sits on Amazon’s BoD.

None of those things by themselves are alarming (ok maybe the Trump/Kushner connection), my only point is I bet there are tons of people just like her, with tremendous amounts of influence, who we assume to be Democratically aligned, but her ‘body of work’ and associations say differently. I’m sure there are plenty of R’s just like her.

Above a certain level, the line is very, very blurry, and money and power trump ideals. Surprise!!

[malchior]

That is the value of listening to folks like Sarah Kendzior for me. She lays out all the connections and they are startling sometimes. She reads them all negative (which I get to an extent) but I see this in my line of work too. All the big players at the big companies know each other and we keep running into the same folks over and over. It is the nature of a world where money/power is concentrating. We're seeing an American version of an aristocracy be born.

[Carpet_pissr]

Yep, that network is effectively ‘The Swamp’, but it’s a LOT more politically neutral than the media or any given party would have us believe.

[Kraken]

No one seems to like the Lincoln Party anymore.

It's an interesting look at the group's stumbles and scandals, and whether it's still a player. I put it in this thread because

a year after delighting liberals with their insistence on bringing guns to a gunfight, operatives across the spectrum now say the group is, at best, ineffective and prodigal, at worst, counterproductive. In particular, fellow never-Trumpers and moderate Republicans have recoiled at Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson’s recent encouragement of a Trump presidential run in 2024.

“I think this is the mother of bad ideas,” said conservative commentator and Trump critic Charlie Sykes. “But also the father, brother, sister, and cousin of a truly bad idea. [It] ignores the fact that Trump could actually be elected again, and you would’ve thought we had all learned our lesson from playing games with that possibility the last time.”

Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist and Trump critic who started Defending Democracy Together, joined in a chorus of other anti-Trump Republicans baffled by Wilson’s strategy.

“It would be a high-impact event on our democracy if Trump were reelected and you want to do everything you can to keep him from getting one step closer,” Longwell said. “The best way to ensure Trump doesn't win the election 2024 is to make sure he doesn’t become the nominee.”

In an interview with POLITICO, Wilson defended his position by arguing that Trumpism was a greater problem now than just Trump himself. He pointed to his response on Twitter and added that the idea that he actually wants the 45th president to run again is “risible.”

“It’s not that I want [Trump] to be here, I’d love for him to be eaten by a shark tomorrow,” Wilson said. “I want Trump to run to destroy the people who are more sophisticated than Trump. I want to use Trump’s psychological problems to weaken him because I think the most dangerous thing we face is Trump with an Ivy League degree. All the abrasive authoritarianism and nationalism and none of the obvious deficits.”

[Carpet_pissr]

I totally get that. But the potential for a MASSIVE backfire is…massive.

Also completely agree that Trumpism is a much bigger problem than Donald J.

[hepcat]

That does pose an interesting thought. Has Trump created something that even he can't control at this point?

[Jaymann]

What happened when Stalin died?

[El Guapo]

I guess I don't fully understand why people seem to care so much about The Lincoln Project. They're broadly aiming at the right target, their leadership has been at least partly problematic. They've done a few stupid things and will probably do some more stupid things. Seems like that's about it?

[LawBeefaroni]

I guess I don't fully understand why people seem to care so much about The Lincoln Project. They're broadly aiming at the right target, their leadership has been at least partly problematic. They've done a few stupid things and will probably do some more stupid things. Seems like that's about it?

Pretty much. Although for a while they were the only organized mainstream non-Trump voice with any sort of balls. I think that endeared them to a lot of people far more than their performance alone warranted.

[malchior]

I think they represented not only a mainstream but a larger hope for a robust Republican group that could pull the GOP back from the brink. Once it was clear this was a splinter a lot of the enthusiasm for them died especially when the ethical problems came out.

[noxiousdog]

Also, liberals cannot endorse anything that isn't ideologically pure, and most Republicans couldn't care less about principle if it's not endorsed by Trump.

That leaves the Lincoln Project without much of an audience.

[Carpet_pissr]

Heh

[Kraken]

The former guy is making noises about announcing his candidacy before the midterms.

For nearly a year, a kitchen cabinet of Donald Trump confidants have told the former president not to announce his 2024 comeback candidacy before the midterms, arguing that he could be a drag on 2022 candidates and would be blamed if Republicans underperformed.

But Trump has continued to regularly push for an early announcement in private meetings, as potential 2024 rivals become more aggressive amid signs of weakening support among his base. Now an increasing number of allies are urging him to follow his instincts as a way to shore up his standing in the party and drive turnout to help the GOP take over the House and Senate next year.
...
‘’If Trump is going to run, the sooner he gets in and talks about winning the next election, the better,’’ said Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, who recently golfed with Trump in New Jersey. ‘’It will refocus his attention — less grievance, more about the future.’’

Graham has embraced an argument once dismissed inside much of the party, contending that Democrats are going to use Trump’s unpopularity among some voter groups to try to drive turnout no matter what he does. If he gets in the race soon, they argue, he will be better positioned to drive turnout on the Republican side in the midterms.

‘’You might as well get the benefit if you’re going to take the lashes too,’’ said Tony Fabrizio, a Trump pollster working for multiple Senate candidates this cycle. ‘’If you want to energize the base and get the base out, no one does it better than Trump.’’

Others have argued that Trump’s direct insertion into the midterm campaign will only play into Democratic plans to make the election a referendum on the extremism of Trump’s ‘’Make America Great Again,’’ or MAGA, movement. Republicans believe they are on track for a banner midterm year, a result of massive dissatisfaction with inflation, President Biden’s job performance, and the direction of the country.
...
Public and internal party polls in several key states show that Trump rates behind even Biden, who has suffered a historical collapse in public support since taking office. Trump lost a recent hypothetical head-to-head poll against Biden in New Hampshire and trails Biden in favorability in Wisconsin, both sites of marquee Senate contests this fall.
...
Trump’s decision to enter the race, some in the party fear, could scramble the dynamics in the final months of the House and Senate campaigns.

‘’Of all the selfish things he does every minute of every day, it would probably be the most,’’ said one prominent Republican strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment. ‘’Everything we are doing that is not talking about the economy is going to be a disaster.’’

Not mentioned: The insurrection committee is closing in on wrapping up its work and potentially recommending charges to the DOJ. Being an active candidate makes Garland less likely to move against him.

[Zaxxon]

It is rather hilarious that this is a thing. Of course he's running--that's been clear since he won in 2016. A narcissist as overly-developed as DJT could not possibly not run.

[Holman]

Republicans are begging him not to announce before the midterms.

Ari Fleischer (remember him?) went so far as to encourage him to declare on 1/6 and make it "Donald Trump Day."

[Smoove_B]

I figured his decision to announce is directly related to how it will affect his ability to fleece rubes. More specifically, once he announces his intentions, I'm assuming fund raising will be monitored. But right now? He's just siphoning up donations and funneling it god knows where. So it'll be based on whatever state(s) have the earliest deadlines to be on the ballot and not a minute sooner.

[Kraken]

This is entirely too easy to believe: trump asked aide why his generals couldn't be more like Hitler's.

WASHINGTON — President Donald J. Trump told his top White House aide that he wished he had generals like the ones who had reported to Adolf Hitler, saying they were “totally loyal” to the leader of the Nazi regime, according to a forthcoming book about the 45th president.

“Why can’t you be like the German generals?” Mr. Trump told John Kelly, his chief of staff, preceding the question with an obscenity, according to an excerpt from “The Divider: Trump in the White House,” by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, published online by The New Yorker on Monday morning. (Mr. Baker is the chief White House correspondent for The New York Times; Ms. Glasser is a staff writer for The New Yorker.)

The excerpt depicts Mr. Trump as deeply frustrated by his top military officials, whom he saw as insufficiently loyal or obedient to him. In the conversation with Mr. Kelly, which took place years before the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, the authors write, the chief of staff told Mr. Trump that Germany’s generals had “tried to kill Hitler three times and almost pulled it off.”

Mr. Trump was dismissive, according to the excerpt, apparently unaware of the World War II history that Mr. Kelly, a retired four-star general, knew all too well.

“‘No, no, no, they were totally loyal to him,’ the president replied,” according to the book’s authors. “In his version of history, the generals of the Third Reich had been completely subservient to Hitler; this was the model he wanted for his military. Kelly told Trump that there were no such American generals, but the president was determined to test the proposition.”

[Kurth]

Exhibit 1 million supporting the notion that Trump is a unique danger to American democracy.

There are other dangerous GOP MAGATs out there right now, but none of them is as dangerous as Trump.

[malchior]

Exhibit 1 million supporting the notion that Trump is a unique danger to American democracy.

There are other dangerous GOP MAGATs out there right now, but none of them is as dangerous as Trump.

I'd rephrase it to say he is the proven danger. There might be more dangerous MAGAts but they are unproven yet.

[Kurth]

Exhibit 1 million supporting the notion that Trump is a unique danger to American democracy.

There are other dangerous GOP MAGATs out there right now, but none of them is as dangerous as Trump.

I'd rephrase it to say he is the proven danger. There might be more dangerous MAGAts but they are unproven yet.

A not-so-wise man once said:

As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.

So, yeah, it’s certainly possible there are more dangerous people than Trump lurking out there (or hiding in plain sight). But that’s not the point: Based on what we know now, no one poses the same danger to this country that Donald Trump does. He is a clear and present danger to America continuing as a nominally functioning democracy.

[malchior]

I think that's where I diverge. He is the worst proven unique danger at the moment. But I think we're well beyond him being the core that makes the dysfunction work on the GOP side. In other words I don't think he is systemically critical to the danger anymore. The last few years broke us. The danger we face is complex and I anticipate that even if he drops dead, the danger/risk level probably doesn't reduce much if any. It'd be like hoping Rome reforms because Caesar is dead (not that Trump is in any way worthy of the comparison). In any case, the big issues and strategy from thee GOP we see overlaps with him to keep him from blowing up folks spots but it is now mostly independent of him.

For example, the CRT stuff isn't centered on him. The election denial was always in the Republican mythos. He amped it up and now it is deeply embedded across the party. The Republicans have been trying to undermine Democratic party legitimacy to rule since Clinton and it's on steroids now. They've also stepped up their gerrymandering - they are planning to run on 4 maps that were shot down by district courts because the robed tyrants have decided that they have no role in preventing gerrymandering. The point is that Trump isn't the eye of the storm. He just was best at harnessing it for his own grifting but the storm is still going to roll through nonetheless.

[Kurth]

I think that's where I diverge. He is the worst proven unique danger at the moment. But I think we're well beyond him being the core that makes the dysfunction work on the GOP side. In other words I don't think he is systemically critical to the danger anymore. The last few years broke us. The danger we face is complex and I anticipate that even if he drops dead, the danger/risk level probably doesn't reduce much if any. It'd be like hoping Rome reforms because Caesar is dead (not that Trump is in any way worthy of the comparison). In any case, the big issues and strategy from thee GOP we see overlaps with him to keep him from blowing up folks spots but it is now mostly independent of him.

For example, the CRT stuff isn't centered on him. The election denial was always in the Republican mythos. He amped it up and now it is deeply embedded across the party. The Republicans have been trying to undermine Democratic party legitimacy to rule since Clinton and it's on steroids now. They've also stepped up their gerrymandering - they are planning to run on 4 maps that were shot down by district courts because the robed tyrants have decided that they have no role in preventing gerrymandering. The point is that Trump isn't the eye of the storm. He just was best at harnessing it for his own grifting but the storm is still going to roll through nonetheless.

We can survive a debate about CRT. Gerrymandering is a significant systemic abuse/failure, but it's certainly nothing new. The GOP undermining Democratic party legitimacy, also not new.

A sitting president refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power. New.

A sitting president inciting a mob to lay siege to the Capitol. New.

A sitting president brazenly and transparently and repeatedly trying to use the institutions of government for his personal accumulation of wealth and power. New.

A sitting president who has developed a cult of personality so strong that he can proclaim (accurately) that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in broad daylight and his base would keep on following him. New.

Trump is a unique threat to this country. Plain and simple. Not saying that there aren't other threats or that everything will be just peachy if Trump is finally out of the picture, but things will certainly, unequivocally be better.

[malchior]

A sitting president who has developed a cult of personality so strong that he can proclaim (accurately) that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in broad daylight and his base would keep on following him. New.

Trump is a unique threat to this country. Plain and simple. Not saying that there aren't other threats or that everything will be just peachy if Trump is finally out of the picture, but things will certainly, unequivocally be better.

Trust me I get where you are coming from. I just have a fundamental disagreement with that view. I don't believe things will automatically be better. Trump being out of the picture removes a danger for sure but the situation is incredibly bleak right now. For all we know with Trump out of the picture we could see a destabilizing succession crisis to crown a new more extreme monster. Which is sort of how Trump broke through in the first place - the GOP clown car.

In any case, when I pull back my view is that the Republican party has an inherent hunger for this behavior and the new behaviors are just an extension of the old. People thought Trump invented all this wall stuff. No. There are documented occurrences of that talk during McCain/Palin. It was an outlier then but it grew over time until he turned it into a chant. It went from something people didn't think was smart to say out loud to a proud chant to protect American from others. That isn't going away if Trump is gone. It already existed. Now it is in the fabric of the deplorable nation.

The bigger problem in my view is that much of the party and the base fundamentally think they are the only ones with the right to rule. If they lose, it is only because the other side cheated. And that justifies all the cheating they are actually doing. In the end, they don't care about democracy unless it is the type of democracy where they win. Again though that already existed and goes back to Lee Atwater, Karl Rove, Newt Gingrich, and Steve Bannon and others. That won't go away if Trump is gone. It already existed. Again deeply ingrained in the mentality of the deplorable nation.

So while I agree Trump was at one time in the center, his role was as a devil on the shoulder telling them it was ok to express all the dark, evil shit in their hearts. At the core, my fundamental argument is that he accelerated a decline and pathos already in the progress. The party in the end went along with nearly everything. They're all tripping to implement their dirty schemes. MAGA politicians are proliferating throughout the country. And I don't imagine this is like some spell that dissipates if he vanishes. This behavior is deep in the GOP now. These folks were told they shouldn't be ashamed of who they are and the genie is irrevocably out of the bottle. We're in deep shit no matter whether Trump is alive, dead, locked up, or whatever.

[Jaymann]

Agreed. And not only that, if Florida Man keeled over tomorrow, the deplorables would spin it as the fault of the PedocratsTM, and would look for endorsements from beyond the grave.

[Zarathud]

Trump’s media persona feeds the worst of the Republican Party, and he’s had decades of media training from his self-promoting publicity time on Howard Stern. Howard called Trump a “wonderful interview who was always good for ratings” because of his willingness to say outrageous things. Whoever succeeds Trump will not have that built-in cult or personality even if they try the same moves.

Trump’s MAGA people are those who buy into the hucksterism Trump perfected over the years. They want a gold painted White House filled with someone whose insecurity pursues their worst impulses. He can “grab ‘em by the pussy” and “shoot someone without losing a vote” because America currently forgives most bad acting celebrities. Trump knows it, which is why Twitter’s restrictions hurt him so much.

DeSantis is only a politician at the end of the day. He’s more capable and dangerous, but more vulnerable.

[YellowKing]

Yeah I'm kind of in the middle.

I do believe that without Trump to fuel the fire, it's going to be much more difficult for MAGA to MAGA. DeSantis is evil and dangerous, but he's not charismatic. He doesn't have decades of fame behind him. So while the policies will be there, the cult will not.

On the other hand, it goes without saying that Trump broke down the barriers that were keeping MAGA in check. And those barriers will not be rebuilt anytime soon. He's opened the doors for Trump acolytes for years to come.

My only hope is that as Trump's influence fades and those slow gears of justice continue to grind, the extremism of the Republican party will become a bit more vulnerable.

We don't know yet that Trumpism is invulnerable. Trump lost in 2020. If he's the nominee in 2024, he may lose again. If DeSantis is the nominee in 2024, he may lose. And as losses mount, strength wanes.

Ultimately, the vast majority of this country rejects this right-wing extremism. It's up to that majority to reject this brand of thinking in 2022 and 2024 and not give it fertile ground to grow.

[Holman]

I'm less optimistic.

MAGA is bigger than Trump. It's the culmination of right-wing media structures and narratives than he depended upon even more than they depended on him. They prepared the way for years even before they knew it would be him.

Trump unleashed the politics of hate and grievance that the American Right had been nurturing since long before he descended the elevator. His charisma brought those forces to the foreground, but--now that they've been unleashed--he's almost as much a liability as an asset. The MAGA politicians in the wings probably want him to disappear as much as we do, since his narcissism is what stands in the way of their coordinated and strategic seizure of power.

Nothing would be better for right-wing authoritarian ambitions than for Trump to suffer a heart-attack on a golf course tomorrow.

[Dave Allen]

A narcissist as overly-developed as DJT could not possibly not run.

Unless he is a convicted felon. Things are really looking up.

[hepcat]

My guess is Trump will announce his run for 2024 any day now. No way he lets all this media attention, and the subsequent rage he’s shoveling coal into go to waste.

[Kurth]

Nothing would be better for right-wing authoritarian ambitions America than for Trump to suffer a heart-attack on a golf course tomorrow.

FTFY

I see two camps: One that believes Trump is a unique danger to the country and our political system, and another that believes the GOP is the unique danger to the country and our political system.

The first is distinctly less partisan and believes there have been better and worse Republicans, but the party itself — over the arc of time, not in its current, MAGAt-infested state — is not necessarily a force for evil. The first camp believes a functional, minimally rational GOP is a required pillar of our system.

The second camp tends to see Trump as simply giving voice to the rot that is inherent in the GOP. I suspect the second camp really wouldn’t be so disappointed with one-party rule, so long as the party that was ruling was theirs.

[malchior]

Nothing would be better for right-wing authoritarian ambitions America than for Trump to suffer a heart-attack on a golf course tomorrow.

FTFY

I see two camps: One that believes Trump is a unique danger to the country and our political system, and another that believes the GOP is the unique danger to the country and our political system.

The first is distinctly less partisan and believes there have been better and worse Republicans, but the party itself — over the arc of time, not in its current, MAGAt-infested state — is not necessarily a force for evil. The first camp believes a functional, minimally rational GOP is a required pillar of our system.

The second camp tends to see Trump as simply giving voice to the rot that is inherent in the GOP. I suspect the second camp really wouldn’t be so disappointed with one-party rule, so long as the party that was ruling was theirs.

This post explains a lot of why I don't think we align on this. I think this grouping doesn't fit reality very well. You can listen to lots of voices - including many if not most of the current Democratic party leadership plus a lot of folks (including myself) who absolutely want a non-evil conservative party. The idea that there is some significant group that wants Democratic autocracy is not that well supported as far as I can tell. We've seen polarization for sure. However, this take verges on a bothsides argument that doesn't really work.

In any case, there is a lot of evidence about the GOP rot. I'd suggest reading a couple of stand out engaging books amongst the many documenting the GOP's authoritarian descent to see why assignment of too much oomph to Trump misses a lot of what's wrong. These include: "It Was All A Lie" by Stuart Stevens and "Why We Did It: A Travelogue From the Republican Road to Hell" by Tim Miller. Both were Republican insiders/politicos and are describing the rot that Trump exploited from the inside. Stevens got started in the Carter/Reagan era. Miller worked in the McCain 2008 campaign.

What's really interesting is there is a clear continuity between the two through that period about how they both saw the darkness approaching. Both describe their own limits in those machines. What's great is that you can see between the two books where Stevens limit is close to the normal in the 2000s for Miller. It's a great combo to see the frog boil happening. They also both relate what they saw with Trump. It's really illuminating.

Edit: Stevens' book is also good because he talks through the rise of the right-wing disinformation machine in the 90s. He describes how it was a clear advantage and doesn't exist at nearly any scale comparatively on the left. His discussion between the interplay between the GOP and what is essentially a propaganda wing is not all that novel. Still I thought it was good to get an insider's validation about some of the uglier practices being known true to people who pretend it isn't happening at all.