2021 Election Cycle

[Zarathud]

On the other hand it indicates that the GOP is insurgent at the grass roots level. Sending people to rile up school boards across the country looks like genius malice at this point. It is paying dividends everywhere.

This. The Democratic grassroots are consistently outflanked by the garbage the conservatives manufacture.

[El Guapo]

On the other hand it indicates that the GOP is insurgent at the grass roots level. Sending people to rile up school boards across the country looks like genius malice at this point. It is paying dividends everywhere.

This. The Democratic grassroots are consistently outflanked by the garbage the conservatives manufacture.

It's hard for the Democrats to mirror the grassroots relationship that the GOP has given that the media that Democrats pay attention to expects Democrats to care about facts and whatnot. So like if a GOP politician says something crazy to rile up the base, Fox News isn't going to go after them for that, but on the Democratic side CNN / MSNBC / etc. certainly will. And conversely when right wing crazies show up at school board meetings and whatnot Fox News isn't going to blame that on Hawley / Cruz / etc. but the parallel isn't true.

[Carpet_pissr]

McAuliffe has always rubbed me the wrong way for some reason. I think it's his 'game show host/used car salesman" mashup personality.

BUT in his defense, I totally agree with his lightning rod comment. So parents should be able to dictate what is taught in the classroom? What do we do when God forbid, some parents don't agree with what some other parents think should or should not be taught?

Hey, let's also let citizens tell the local police and fire stations how they should be doing their jobs also, while we're at it.

We have been reduced to a populist mush. Jesus.

Yeah, the criticism is more about how he said it, I suppose. It made it sound like parents should be shut out entirely of the discussion, whereas the reality is that parents do have influence over curriculum but they're ultimately one voice among many. Which is appropriate. It's just that he presented it as "STFU parents".

Ah, OK, thanks for clarifying. I only read it, and out of context, so that helps. I'm actually surprised he had the balls to say that, considering what I perceive to be a VERY politicky (Romney/John Kerry) personality, if you know what I mean.

[$iljanus]

McAuliffe has always rubbed me the wrong way for some reason. I think it's his 'game show host/used car salesman" mashup personality.

BUT in his defense, I totally agree with his lightning rod comment. So parents should be able to dictate what is taught in the classroom? What do we do when God forbid, some parents don't agree with what some other parents think should or should not be taught?

Hey, let's also let citizens tell the local police and fire stations how they should be doing their jobs also, while we're at it.

We have been reduced to a populist mush. Jesus.

Yeah, the criticism is more about how he said it, I suppose. It made it sound like parents should be shut out entirely of the discussion, whereas the reality is that parents do have influence over curriculum but they're ultimately one voice among many. Which is appropriate. It's just that he presented it as "STFU parents".

And that's why you don't hand the opposition a ready made soundbite like that. I knew what he meant but in a no holds barred political fight nuances fall by the wayside. He should have known better.

[Octavious]

Meanwhile the count goes on in NJ...

[El Guapo]

McAuliffe has always rubbed me the wrong way for some reason. I think it's his 'game show host/used car salesman" mashup personality.

BUT in his defense, I totally agree with his lightning rod comment. So parents should be able to dictate what is taught in the classroom? What do we do when God forbid, some parents don't agree with what some other parents think should or should not be taught?

Hey, let's also let citizens tell the local police and fire stations how they should be doing their jobs also, while we're at it.

We have been reduced to a populist mush. Jesus.

Yeah, the criticism is more about how he said it, I suppose. It made it sound like parents should be shut out entirely of the discussion, whereas the reality is that parents do have influence over curriculum but they're ultimately one voice among many. Which is appropriate. It's just that he presented it as "STFU parents".

And that's why you don't hand the opposition a ready made soundbite like that. I knew what he meant but in a no holds barred political fight nuances fall by the wayside. He should have known better.

To be fair to McAuliffe, it seems impossible to go to multiple events essentially each day and talk about complex fraught issues without saying something that clipped to 5 - 10 seconds sounds really bad.

[$iljanus]

McAuliffe has always rubbed me the wrong way for some reason. I think it's his 'game show host/used car salesman" mashup personality.

BUT in his defense, I totally agree with his lightning rod comment. So parents should be able to dictate what is taught in the classroom? What do we do when God forbid, some parents don't agree with what some other parents think should or should not be taught?

Hey, let's also let citizens tell the local police and fire stations how they should be doing their jobs also, while we're at it.

We have been reduced to a populist mush. Jesus.

Yeah, the criticism is more about how he said it, I suppose. It made it sound like parents should be shut out entirely of the discussion, whereas the reality is that parents do have influence over curriculum but they're ultimately one voice among many. Which is appropriate. It's just that he presented it as "STFU parents".

And that's why you don't hand the opposition a ready made soundbite like that. I knew what he meant but in a no holds barred political fight nuances fall by the wayside. He should have known better.

To be fair to McAuliffe, it seems impossible to go to multiple events essentially each day and talk about complex fraught issues without saying something that clipped to 5 - 10 seconds sounds really bad.

It's tough, but it seems that folks on the right can say the most outlandish shit with little consequence. Telling parents what they can and cannot do however is fraught with peril. Heck, parents give school principals an earful when they try to impose sane traffic rules when picking up their children.

I'm just saying the margin for error for a Democratic candidate in many races can be pretty thin.

[Defiant]

Although it's worth pointing out that Biden did about a point and a half better nationally than House Democrats did in 2020.

[Smoove_B]

The AP is now calling for for Murphy in NJ and based on what I've seen he's currently up by about 19K votes. There are still machines that need to be tallied along with ~500K mail in votes, but I guess the projection is that all those mail in ballots are Democrat frauds? I dunno.

I just need to get to the next phase so I can start sipping on the tears of impotent rage.

[Little Raven]

I can't imagine many Republicans crying over the NJ results. Even if Murphy squeeks out a win, they have exceeded their wildest expectations.

[Smoove_B]

I can't imagine many Republicans crying over the NJ results.

The are in my corner of NJ.

[Little Raven]

The are in my corner of NJ.

Oh. Well, enjoy the local show then.

[Octavious]

Jack isn't conceding and I honestly can't blame him. There's a lot of votes left, but I mean they are very very likely not going his way.

[malchior]

For me, it doesn't really matter. It isnt like conceding is a legally binding thing. If he decides to lump it into the Big Lie that is when I will take notice.

[Octavious]

Ya I don't get the impression that's where he's going with it.

[Smoove_B]

News this morning said fewer than 37% of NJ residents voted on Tuesday - lowest voter turnout in nearly a century. That's embarrassing. I get that Murphy isn't energizing, but when the choice is to elect a GOP cult proxy that proposed making a local ordinance against cursing...I mean, really. More here, for those interested.

Just as a random weird data-point, there was a guy in one of the shore communities (heavy GOP area) that was a former school administrator. In 2011 he was ordered to pay 4.5 million over a sexual assault claim at work after being fired based on those same charges. This same guy was just elected on Tuesday to a seat on the Board of Education from the school district he was fired from. What in the actual F is happening??

[Grifman]

The Democrats have got to figure out how to fight/win the culture wars. They need to face that fact that running as the part of "good government" (which they are compared to the Republicans) doesn't matter. People blame them for not passing Build Back Better and the Infrastructure plan, but I doubt would have ended up changing many votes. A lot of people don't care what benefit the govt can provide them - case in point - did the Republicans face any repercussions in poor white areas from attempting to repeal Obamacare? I've not seen any evidence of that. Did any poor white counties in KY turn out there Republican representatives for voting against the ACA?

The Republicans have three powerful hooks - guns, abortion, and whiteness. Millons of people own guns and vote just on that issue, millions of Christians vote solely on abortion, and there are a lot of white people. What do the Democrats have? Sure the Democrats also have abortion but I'd argue that it is a lot less powerful for them, because a lot of women will just assume that it won't happen to them. Trans issues? Too few people to really matter politically, yet the Dems spend a lot of political capital on this issue, which I'd argue also serves to animate the right. Racial equality? That could be a winner, but turnout is often spotty among minorities and it seems Republicans have made gains with Hispanics under Trump, and it's still out numbered by whiteness on the Republican side. Note, I'm not saying the Democrats are wrong on any of these issues, I'm just saying they are not the big winners for them like guns, abortion and whiteness are for Republicans. Maybe there's something I'm missing, feel free to chime in.

Are there any big cultural winners for the Democrats?

[Grifman]

There is a very simple solution for the Democrats "CRT" problem. Every Democrat should come out in favor of banning CRT in kindergarten through the 12th grade. It's not taught in those grades, so nothing is lost, you're not really giving up anything. Just ban it, let the conservatives have a "win" over a totally fake issue. You are not going to convince people that it isn't being taught, it's clear that facts don't matter to a large proportion of the population. So just ban it, take it off the table. Issue gone.

[Apollo]

There is a very simple solution for the Democrats "CRT" problem. Every Democrat should come out in favor of banning CRT in kindergarten through the 12th grade. It's not taught in those grades, so nothing is lost, you're not really giving up anything. Just ban it, let the conservatives have a "win" over a totally fake issue. You are not going to convince people that it isn't being taught, it's clear that facts don't matter to a large proportion of the population. So just ban it, take it off the table. Issue gone.

The Progressive wing of the party (which sits in comfortably deep blue districts) would frame this action as "racist" and would start a war on social media if the Democrats even considered such a move. They are already showing that they would rather the Democrats do nothing than do something to please moderates.

[YellowKing]

Honestly I think the progressive wing of the party is just as bad as the extremist wing of the Republican party in making sure we're fooked six ways to Sunday.

Just as with the right-wing, their solution to defeat is to double down and get more extreme, when we all know Americans are closer to the middle. Of course we are, that's why every election comes down to an almost even split. In what kind of math does a 50/50 split toss-up for most elections equal - "Americans don't think we're far right/far left enough?"

I may believe in the progressive side's ideals, but I think they're living in a la-la fantasy world, and they're sabotaging everything to keep believing in that fantasy.

[Grifman]

It should be noted that McAuliffe got 200,000+ more votes than the current Democratic governor so turnout on the Democratic side wasn't the issue - it was Republican turnout that swamped the Democrats, all driven largely by cultural issues.

[Blackhawk]

Here's the problem: The people have been actively separated from reality and reason. We are, collectively, bonkers. The Republicans are playing people for pure emotion, while we're trying to figure out how to appeal to their reason. But they have been condition to reject reason and embrace emotion. Seriously, it's like trying to reason with a four year old who's in the middle of throwing a fit. It just doesn't work. You can't figure out how to do it, no matter how hard you try.

We either give up (and the insanity wins), or we appeal to reason (and lose), or we also quit trying to reason with the unreasonable and appeal to emotion (and the insanity still wins, but differently.)

There is no good outcome. We're past that. We just have to hope we can choose the manner in which we fail.

[Skinypupy]

There is a very simple solution for the Democrats "CRT" problem. Every Democrat should come out in favor of banning CRT in kindergarten through the 12th grade. It's not taught in those grades, so nothing is lost, you're not really giving up anything. Just ban it, let the conservatives have a "win" over a totally fake issue. You are not going to convince people that it isn't being taught, it's clear that facts don't matter to a large proportion of the population. So just ban it, take it off the table. Issue gone.

Except that literally any mention of race, diversity, inclusion, social issues, justice, etc. is lumped under the CRT umbrella in the eyes of conservatives.

To Dems, agreeing to ban CRT would be a very simple solution because it's not being taught anyways. To conservatives, however, agreeing to ban CRT means that you are agreeing to never mention race or racial history in any context in any school whatsoever. Goes without saying that shouldn't be the goal.

[malchior]

Honestly I think the progressive wing of the party is just as bad as the extremist wing of the Republican party in making sure we're fooked six ways to Sunday.

Just as with the right-wing, their solution to defeat is to double down and get more extreme, when we all know Americans are closer to the middle.

IMO this is a misread of the dynamic. They aren't becoming more extreme. They have been remarkably consistent. What they are doing is becoming more insistent saying that they think the Democrats need to actually deliver policy relief that is important to rural/poor Americans. Essentially they are arguing that they need to help people and they'll come along at the polls. I don't think the idea is inherently wrong. It is untested and probably unrealistic/unattainable because our system is inherently biased *AGAINST* action. Especially with a Senate that has completely broken down.

The essential policy planks on Family Leave and Pre-K would be good for a lot of the poorer, now angry whites who are being pulled into the GOP camp via feelings/hate levers. The GOP knows this and fights doggedly to prevent it to maintain their coalitions.

In these conditions, the Progressives aren't being all that helpful to be sure. However, the Democrats big picture are in a bind. If they can convince the Progressives to skew back to the middle then they are essentially returning to the free market meritocracy Clinton/Obama governance path. And that partially led us here in the first place. They are acting this way for a reason in other words.

I also harbor doubts that the United States really is "centrist". I think we often confuse electoral results for what Americans really stand for. I don't think that's accurate. Turnout in many areas in Democratic NJ were off as much as 50% from 2020. If that other 50% shows up then the election is a blow out. Do I really think that suddenly the electorate overall suddenly shifted far to the right in a year?

I know that seems abstract but I believe that 50/50 elections aren't really about some battle in the middle of the electorate. It doesn't really follow the evidence. The election results in VA have exit polls that indicate tons of turnout from folks outraged about a made up issue. How do we frame a "middle" story there? The same goes for NJ. We don't have exit polls but about the same number of people voted for Murphy as when he won in 2017. In 2021 it landed 52/48 (my best guess as mail-in votes are still being counted) because suddenly the GOP turnout increased by upwards of 50% from 2017. In fact, 2021 had much higher turnout in 2017 sole due to it. It seems much more likely that is reflected in "enthusiam". These are just two races but they don't really scream battle over a "middle". I personally think it more driven by the usual factors such as the economy and then the various different point in time polarization levers.

[Little Raven]

There is a very simple solution for the Democrats "CRT" problem. Every Democrat should come out in favor of banning CRT in kindergarten through the 12th grade.

You know I love you, Grif, but I think this is a terrible idea, for a number of reasons.

• Using the legal system to ban things from education is just a bad idea in general - it’s like trying to use a chainsaw to perform surgery - you’re very, VERY likely to do more harm than good. It’s especially likely to backfire in this case, because -
• It’s going to allow Democrats to hide behind definitions, which is what has gotten them in such trouble to begin with. Right now, the standard Democratic approach to this issue has been to say “CRT is a highly complex academic theory that exists only in 300 level courses and beyond. The idea that it’s being taught to primary school students is absurd, and only an uneducated idiot (probably blinded by their inherent racism!) could possibly believe otherwise.” They then drop the mic and bask in the warm glow of the Twitter likes while completely ignoring what is actually happening in primary schools, only to be shocked when Virginia does a 12-point swing away from them. But worst of all -
• ”Banning CRT” isn’t actually going to solve the big problem the Democratic Party is facing - which is that it currently lacks an aspirational model for the country. The loudest voices in the Democratic camp tend to sound a lot like, well, the loudest voices in this forum.
  
  America is a mostly bad place filled with mostly bad people who do mostly bad things because they are too stupid or too racist to deal with a virus, much less institutional discrimination or climate catastrophe. We’re a country founded on evil premises by tax evading slavers, and it’s only a matter of time until it all collapses into fasicm and genocide. We’re fucked.

This is difficult ground to build a political party on. Obama understood that if you want to motivate people, you have to give them hope, and let them focus on their strengths even as they acknowledge their weaknesses. Biden is trying, but I’m afraid he’s just too old to stand against the gale.

[YellowKing]

I think the other reason we're screwed is that people, by and large, will always follow the path of least resistance. And that's really what Republicans offer - a world in which you don't have to sacrifice anything for anyone, and you're free to indulge in your most selfish desires without giving a damn about how it harms anyone else.

Democrats, on the other hand, have to sell personal sacrifice for the greater good, paying your fair share, being kind to the environment - a lot of stuff that sounds like a hell of a lot of work. We've already proven we don't give a damn about our children, so asking us to sacrifice a little now so that they and their kids can have a better life? Complete pipe dream.

[Isgrimnur]

Here's the problem: The people have been actively separated from reality and reason. We are, collectively, bonkers. The Republicans are playing people for pure emotion, while we're trying to figure out how to appeal to their reason. But they have been condition to reject reason and embrace emotion. Seriously, it's like trying to reason with a four year old who's in the middle of throwing a fit. It just doesn't work. You can't figure out how to do it, no matter how hard you try.

We either give up (and the insanity wins), or we appeal to reason (and lose), or we also quit trying to reason with the unreasonable and appeal to emotion (and the insanity still wins, but differently.)

There is no good outcome. We're past that. We just have to hope we can choose the manner in which we fail.

[Octavious]

I need to track the article down and can't find it right now, but they very clearly mapped out why we're shifting towards authoritarian rulers. And it's exactly the reason you are saying. It's much much easier to align behind an overall idea of those people are bad and I need to stop them. The majority of the people have zero interest in the actual details of policies. So really the dems can keep on doing complicated things, but they need a simple overall message that blames other people.

[Blackhawk]

I have no idea what the dump truck is, but I'll just assume that it's saying I'm full of it.

[malchior]

But worst of all - [*]”Banning CRT” isn’t actually going to solve the big problem the Democratic Party is facing - which is that it currently lacks an aspirational model for the country. The loudest voices in the Democratic camp tend to sound a lot like, well, the loudest voices in this forum.

America is a mostly bad place filled with mostly bad people who do mostly bad things because they are too stupid or too racist to deal with a virus, much less institutional discrimination or climate catastrophe. We’re a country founded on evil premises by tax evading slavers, and it’s only a matter of time until it all collapses into fasicm and genocide. We’re fucked.[/list]

There are two problems here - one the idea that the Democrats have no aspirational model seems counter factual. Also your characterization of the arguments about where we are heading are absurd argumentation. We are trending towards facism (minus the genocide) because we have a political system that has broken pieces like the Senate. Those broken pieces have led to years of distortional political activity as the nation finds itself unable to solve basic problems, even problems that were routine only a few years ago like funding roads without kvetching. That's the story at one hundred thousand feet.

This is difficult ground to build a political party on. Obama understood that if you want to motivate people, you have to give them hope, and let them focus on their strengths even as they acknowledge their weaknesses. Biden is trying, but I’m afraid he’s just too old to stand against the gale.

It's funny you mention Obama because his attempt to build out any of his vision was largely stymied by the broken functions of our government. This is certainly a question of motivation but we have some indications now that factor to act is what is demotivating. Not a lack of an aspirational model. Especially since it 100% exists.

[Isgrimnur]

I have no idea what the dump truck is, but I'll just assume that it's saying I'm full of it.

[Blackhawk]

Ah. Never saw and/or read it.

[Daehawk]

Ah. Never saw and/or read it.

Its people.

[Pyperkub]

There is a very simple solution for the Democrats "CRT" problem. Every Democrat should come out in favor of banning CRT in kindergarten through the 12th grade.

You know I love you, Grif, but I think this is a terrible idea, for a number of reasons.

• Using the legal system to ban things from education is just a bad idea in general - it’s like trying to use a chainsaw to perform surgery - you’re very, VERY likely to do more harm than good. It’s especially likely to backfire in this case, because -
• It’s going to allow Democrats to hide behind definitions, which is what has gotten them in such trouble to begin with. Right now, the standard Democratic approach to this issue has been to say “CRT is a highly complex academic theory that exists only in 300 level courses and beyond. The idea that it’s being taught to primary school students is absurd, and only an uneducated idiot (probably blinded by their inherent racism!) could possibly believe otherwise.” They then drop the mic and bask in the warm glow of the Twitter likes while completely ignoring what is actually happening in primary schools, only to be shocked when Virginia does a 12-point swing away from them. But worst of all -
• ”Banning CRT” isn’t actually going to solve the big problem the Democratic Party is facing - which is that it currently lacks an aspirational model for the country. The loudest voices in the Democratic camp tend to sound a lot like, well, the loudest voices in this forum.
  
  America is a mostly bad place filled with mostly bad people who do mostly bad things because they are too stupid or too racist to deal with a virus, much less institutional discrimination or climate catastrophe. We’re a country founded on evil premises by tax evading slavers, and it’s only a matter of time until it all collapses into fasicm and genocide. We’re fucked.

This is difficult ground to build a political party on. Obama understood that if you want to motivate people, you have to give them hope, and let them focus on their strengths even as they acknowledge their weaknesses. Biden is trying, but I’m afraid he’s just too old to stand against the gale.

Yeah, the approach is to hammer (and I mean *** hammer ***) at any politician making a ban CRT argument to define CRT and put in writing what they are banning.

Then make the argument about what they are banning.

And if they can't/won't define it, then *** hammer *** at how incompetent they would be at managing Education and preparing Students for 21st Century jobs and are harming America's future.

[stessier]

America is a mostly bad place filled with mostly bad people who do mostly bad things because they are too stupid or too racist to deal with a virus, much less institutional discrimination or climate catastrophe. We’re a country founded on evil premises by tax evading slavers, and it’s only a matter of time until it all collapses into fasicm and genocide. We’re fucked.[/list]

America is an amazing country that falls short of it's promise to the most vulnerable among us. Understanding how this is so takes patience, open-mindedness, and the willingness to listen to those whose experience is different than yours. While these challenges may seem new to some, others have never known life without them. Through the hard work and innovation America is known for, we can join together once more and overcome all the threats to our nation's future. In doing so, we will secure those most cherished of American ideals - Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness - for everyone.

To do any less...to complain it's too hard, or uncomfortable, or the sacrifice is too great...would be un-American action of all.

[Defiant]

[LawBeefaroni]

If we weren't willing to learn after 2016, I doubt VA is going to mean anything.

[Carpet_pissr]

If we weren't willing to learn after 2016, I doubt VA is going to mean anything.

We totally need to add that to LR's take on the board's take on America:

"America is a mostly bad place filled with mostly bad people who are bad learners, and do mostly bad things because they are too stupid or too racist to deal with a virus, much less institutional discrimination or climate catastrophe. We’re a country founded on evil premises by tax evading slavers, and it’s only a matter of time until it all collapses into fasicm and genocide. We’re fucked."

[LordMortis]

Hate is based in fear.

She forgot anger! "Fear leads to Anger, anger leads to hate." (Hate leads to suffering) Then she just needs a picture of McConnell and Trump.

Of course that's 8 words and she wanted six or less.

Maybe 7?

"Fear is the path to the dark side"

If we weren't willing to learn after 2016, I doubt VA is going to mean anything.

I can concede 2016... January 6th... If we learned nothing after January 6th then it's over, Prime...

As it stands today, My fear of what we haven't learned since January 6th leads to anger... my anger leads to hate...

[El Guapo]

The GOP Got Away With All of It.

This articulates a lot of what I've been thinking about the Youngkin victory. In so many ways it's a little funny to read all the hot takes on why McAuliffe lost - it was his schools comment, he was too focused on Trump, he didn't respond enough to CRT attacks, it was Manchin and Sinema, etc - when the reality is that this is relatively normal given past elections. The political environment almost always moves against the party in power, and Virginia in particular has a long history of electing governors from the opposition party (and in fact the Biden 2020 --> McAuliffe 2021 shift towards the GOP was signifcantly smaller than the Obama 2008 --> Deeds 2009 shift). So like, in many ways this is politics in general.

But that's exactly the problem. Political trends seem to be mostly working normally, which is a massive problem because: (1) Democrats are dealing with massive and growing structural disadvantages; and (2) Republicans don't seem to be paying a significant price for radicalizing and for embracing a would-be dictator who openly tried to overturn an election via violence. That's a big, big problem.