2021 Election Cycle

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:25 pm

Or maybe McAullife's message was bad and he took winning for granted.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:31 pm

pr0ner wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:25 pm Or maybe McAullife's message was bad and he took winning for granted.

The GOP shouldn't even be in the race in a non broken nation. McAuliffe ran a flawed campaign for sure. He couldn't fend off a bullshit CRT play. Still he also had significant headwinds from the incredibly poor performance of Biden and the Democrats. This is probably a team loss pending turnout numbers to confirm.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:33 pm

It's not just McAullife. They are getting murdered all over the place in VA.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:36 pm

Yeah, because coattails have never been a thing in politics.

Whatever. I'm out of this thread. I voted for McAuliffe, but this incessant negativity is not worth it to me.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:37 pm

Minneapolis voters reject an amendment to replace the Police Department.

Minneapolis residents rejected an amendment on Tuesday that called for replacing the city’s long-troubled Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety, The Associated Press projected.

The ballot item emerged from anger after a Minneapolis police officer murdered George Floyd last year, galvanizing residents who saw the policing system as irredeemably broken. But the amendment’s failure showed that even in a liberal city where skepticism of the police runs deep, many Americans are not prepared to get rid of the police.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:38 pm

pr0ner wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:36 pm Yeah, because coattails have never been a thing in politics.

Whatever. I'm out of this thread. I voted for McAuliffe, but this incessant negativity is not worth it to me.

Sorry not trying to be negative. It's just a really bad result in VA and frankly I find it very depressing.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:47 pm

Diane Allen, Jack Ciattarelli’s Republican running-mate in New Jersey, just addressed an energized G.O.P. crowd watching results arrive slowly. “We feel good,” she said. “Let’s continue.”

Huh. NJ is closer than I expected.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:49 pm

Octavious wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:38 pm
pr0ner wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:36 pm Yeah, because coattails have never been a thing in politics.

Whatever. I'm out of this thread. I voted for McAuliffe, but this incessant negativity is not worth it to me.
Sorry not trying to be negative. It's just a really bad result in VA and frankly I find it very depressing.

This isn't about negativity vs. positivity. The writing was on the wall. This was predicted by the "negative" viewpoint. Now that the thesis is at least validated to some extend but not proved it should not be handwaved away. We need to learn from this.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:50 pm

Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:47 pm
Diane Allen, Jack Ciattarelli’s Republican running-mate in New Jersey, just addressed an energized G.O.P. crowd watching results arrive slowly. “We feel good,” she said. “Let’s continue.”
Huh. NJ is closer than I expected.

Yup. Those of us actually paying attention aren't surprised. I thought Murphy would win handily but the Democrats unpopularity is an albatross.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:51 pm

Little Raven wrote:
Diane Allen, Jack Ciattarelli’s Republican running-mate in New Jersey, just addressed an energized G.O.P. crowd watching results arrive slowly. “We feel good,” she said. “Let’s continue.”
Huh. NJ is closer than I expected.

Can't say I feel super great but I expect it will close up soon. Sussex will be 70 percent republic but I don't know how many hillbillies we have up here.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:52 pm

A lot of strong, dense blue hasn't reported yet so I think he still wins but if he doesn't next year is shaping up to be a bloodbath.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:05 pm

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:11 pm

Our local race was a snoozefest.

Democrat incumbent mayor shooting for a 6th consecutive term against Democrat former mayor who served 1 term several years ago. Politically indistinguishable, so no surprise folks voted for the incumbent again.

City council was disappointing in that 2 of the 3 open seats were won by Republicans, but one of them has been on it forever so it wasn't much of a surprise. The city council is still majority Democrat.

So overall my town stays a tiny island of progressiveness surrounded by Trumpist hillbilly dumbasses.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:13 pm

I don't know I'm looking at registered voters vs results and I'm not feeling so super great right now. I also have no idea what I'm talking about and nobody is screaming yet on the internet. So we'll see?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:14 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:52 pm A lot of strong, dense blue hasn't reported yet so I think he still wins but if he doesn't next year is shaping up to be a bloodbath.

The fact that it's even competitive should be sending off warning flags to the (D) party at a national level. I get that Murphy isn't well liked, but in no way should anyone from the GOP ever be elected to governor in this state in our collective lifetimes ever again.

I'm quite curious to see how the state and local elections pan out, especially the local BOE races. Lunatics...everywhere.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:19 pm

Octavious wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:13 pm I don't know I'm looking at registered voters vs results and I'm not feeling so super great right now. I also have no idea what I'm talking about and nobody is screaming yet on the internet. So we'll see?

The numbers I saw about an hour ago suggested that (R) voters in NJ were voting at higher levels than 4 years ago, but not nearly as high as they did in 2020 for Trump.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:26 pm

Now it's starting to close up. I don't think I can take a total sweep tonight. I'm just going to take a vacation in the woods for the midterms because it looks like it will be scorched earth...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:27 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:14 pm
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:52 pm A lot of strong, dense blue hasn't reported yet so I think he still wins but if he doesn't next year is shaping up to be a bloodbath.
The fact that it's even competitive should be sending off warning flags to the (D) party at a national level.

This is what I'm trying to stress. The GOP should be lost in the wilderness.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:34 pm

I don't understand where all the (D) voters went that just flooded the ballots in 2020. Are there really that many that aren't interested in local politics and/or hate Murphy? Do they not realize what's going to happen if the GOP takes control of our state? Just listening to Christie pontificate how differently he would have handled things (spoiler - no masks, no shutdowns) gives me the chills.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:34 pm

White non-college women are why the Democrats love the VA governorship:

Virginia 2020 —> White women
50% Biden (D), 49% Trump (R)

Virginia 2021 —> White women
57% Youngkin (R), 43% McAuliffe (D)

********************************************

WHITE WOMEN COLLEGE GRADS
VA 2020: 58% Biden, 41% Trump
VA 2021: 62% McAuliffe, 38% Youngkin

WHITE WOMEN NON-COLLEGE
VA 2020: 56% Trump, 44% Biden
VA 2021: 75% Youngkin, 25% McAuliffe

So why were non-college white women pissed off? Someone needs to figure this out and get some new messaging.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:38 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:34 pm I don't understand where all the (D) voters went that just flooded the ballots in 2020. Are there really that many that aren't interested in local politics and/or hate Murphy? Do they not realize what's going to happen if the GOP takes control of our state? Just listening to Christie pontificate how differently he would have handled things (spoiler - no masks, no shutdowns) gives me the chills.

Take this map
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/ ... ew-jersey/

And compare it to this map
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2021-e ... ection_nav

I think Murphy wins but there's HUGE swings in certain counties. I'm actually surprised that Biden won Morris County. Dover?

Example:
Hunterdon
2020
51.2
46.8

2021 95% Reporting...
60.9
38.2

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:39 pm

I don't think it's a mystery.

“I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach."

You can't say stuff like that to suburban moms. You just can't.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:40 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:34 pm I don't understand where all the (D) voters went that just flooded the ballots in 2020. Are there really that many that aren't interested in local politics and/or hate Murphy?

These off cycle elections are usually depressed compared to Presidential elections. That doesn't surprise me but the enthusiasm gap is the headline potentially. That they feel energized instead of being disgusted is why I'm not thinking good things will happen.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:03 am

Salem hasn't reported any numbers yet and that's certainly Red. Sussex is only at 6%.... So ya...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:07 am

Context is important here. Murphy is relatively popular and the challenger was essentially the stand in GOP candidate. He was practically unknown. He might win in a state Biden won by 16 points a year ago. This is *ugly*.

It takes a lot to take either individually and say it was McAullife botching his race or Murphy not trying hard enough. They appear linked. The big picture is possibly going to be one of Democratic failure depressing their vote, Republicans energized by that failure and general rage. No matter what there will be a lot to unpack.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:10 am

Yup super duper ugly. Fingers crossed Murphy wins, but the red counties have all been heavily slanted towards red. They are super energized to do what? I have no idea... Run around with no masks and hump Trump flags I guess. Burlington is still only at 28% and that in theory should have votes for him? Maybe? Who knows...

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:25 am

I guess that's good? Salem dropped and it was as Red as I expected.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:34 am

Burlington just dropped a big batch and it's red. I'm done. I'm going to sleep. I think we lose this one too. Like every county has flipped Red.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:37 am

Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:39 pm I don't think it's a mystery.

“I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach."
You can't say stuff like that to suburban moms. You just can't.

Yeah, that was just an awful take. You could have said that "parents should be heard" or that "educators and parents need to work together", which can all be true without having parents determine the curriculum, but what he said comes off as terribly condescending and "we know better than you do for is good for your kids">

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:38 am

Removed because my comments were just duplicative.

Stupid school quote may as well have handed the election to Youngkin. Total own goal.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:43 am

We can pick apart individual mistakes but that still doesn't explain all the Republicans outperforming in various races. Unless lots of folks made big gaffes. Data is still outstanding but we have enough now in VA and NJ to know something went drastically awry.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:50 am

Sussex went to Murphy. What the f...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:56 am

I think NJ is going to see a recount request no matter what. It is going to be thousands of votes.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:58 am

Doesn't seem like there's much meat left for him to catch up. So lesson is that trying to overthrow the country is ok as long as the gas prices are low.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:03 am

Each freaking news site has a different number for counties that have reported. Weird.

And ya he didn't win Sussex. Don't use the Fox map lol. I was like how?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:08 am

Octavious wrote: ↑Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:58 am Doesn't seem like there's much meat left for him to catch up. So lesson is that trying to overthrow the country is ok as long as the gas prices are low.

I just did back of the envelope stuff and 10% is out in several high population counties. Murphy might win by a couple of thousand if the percentages hold and the outstanding vote is accurate but it's extremely close. He ran a pretty good campaign by all accounts and didn't have any major gaffes.

Ciattarelli was practically invisible the whole time and the race didn't have anymore near the air time as say Youngkin/McAullife...yet the slide from 2020 numbers is fairly well aligned in both NJ and VA. The GOP had some surprise wins out on Long Island too in local races and I'm seeing some talk that PA judge elections broke towards the GOP too. This seems to indicate there was something that goes well beyond some bonehead comment made over a month ago. Call it malaise, Biden, or whatever. Still something happened here that simply can't be handwaved away though it seems people are going to try really hard to do so.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:11 am

Ya everytime Murphy gets close it widens again. Meh. NBC news seems the most up to date. I really should just go to sleep. Not much I can do about this nonsense.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:35 am

I don't understand where all the (D) voters went that just flooded the ballots in 2020.

Maybe the guy who stuffed the ballot boxes last time refused to get his vaccine so they fired him.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:44 am

Eh Murphy is likely going to win in a squeaker. Mostly very blue areas dumping in late counts. They stopped around 2am and it's picking up now. Honestly if we won Virginia this wouldn't have been the end of the world. The Dems never repeat since 1977, but seriously it's like we didn't learn from 2016.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:52 am

Not the most consequential news nationally but the big result around here is that Michelle Wu won handily in the Boston Mayoral race, becoming the first woman and first person of color to be elected mayor in Boston. She wrapped herself in Elizabeth Warren for the race, which suggests that her brand is still strong around here. She seems great, so excited for that at least.