Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 9:14 pm The Times calls the NY Mayor's race for Eric Adams.
No real surprise there.
JFC this guy. The next four (at least) years are going to be so dumb.
Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus
Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 9:14 pm The Times calls the NY Mayor's race for Eric Adams.
No real surprise there.
“Our team is making sure every legal vote is counted..."
Maybe but that still doesn't explain what happened elsewhere like NJ which saw a complete collapse of Biden's coalition since last year, Long Island, and even in Brooklyn. If it was just a "VA is quirky story" alone that would be sound. However, we have a confluence of other like events where they make less sense. That's a bit of a flag that there might be a bigger trend/movement happening.El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:44 pmThe political environment almost always moves against the party in power, and Virginia in particular has a long history of electing governors from the opposition party (and in fact the Biden 2020 --> McAuliffe 2021 shift towards the GOP was signifcantly smaller than the Obama 2008 --> Deeds 2009 shift). So like, in many ways this is politics in general.
The worst part about 2 is that when you talk to people many see #2 as not real or believe that 1/6 was not too bad or a one-time abberative event. So we'll probably just stumble over the threshold swearing it couldn't happen here. It seems certain they'll be telling us it didn't happen.But that's exactly the problem. Political trends seem to be mostly working normally, which is a massive problem because: (1) Democrats are dealing with massive and growing structural disadvantages; and (2) Republicans don't seem to be paying a significant price for radicalizing and for embracing a would-be dictator who openly tried to overturn an election via violence. That's a big, big problem.
Ya sounds like he's not going to go out quietly. So I guess anytime a Republican loses we'll be dragged into recalls and courts. Good to know.Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:36 pm For a guy that did a lot of work to distance himself from Trump while campaigning, he sure is comfortable using the same language:
“Our team is making sure every legal vote is counted..."
NJ's governor was the first sitting Dem to win reelection since 1977. Even though he just squeaked it out, he bucked a 44-year trend.malchior wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:00 pmMaybe but that still doesn't explain what happened elsewhere like NJ which saw a complete collapse of Biden's coalition since last year, Long Island, and even in Brooklyn. If it was just a "VA is quirky story" alone that would be sound. However, we have a confluence of other like events where they make less sense. That's a bit of a flag that there might be a bigger trend/movement happening.El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:44 pmThe political environment almost always moves against the party in power, and Virginia in particular has a long history of electing governors from the opposition party (and in fact the Biden 2020 --> McAuliffe 2021 shift towards the GOP was signifcantly smaller than the Obama 2008 --> Deeds 2009 shift). So like, in many ways this is politics in general.
Sure but he was up by 10+ points only a couple of months ago and the polls crashed over the last couple of weeks. The idea of the 44-year trend is kind of funny to me but mostly irrelevant trivia in my book. That is a 4 or 5 election thing that happened over almost a half century. Is that really predictive? I have my doubts. Instead, Murphy's support flagged around the same time as some of the the other races. They might be indepedent and just coincedence but again that is a little at odds with what we saw elsewhere. We saw abnormally high side turnout on the GOP side in several races compared to other years.Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:58 pmNJ's governor was the first sitting Dem to win reelection since 1977. Even though he just squeaked it out, he bucked a 44-year trend.malchior wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:00 pmMaybe but that still doesn't explain what happened elsewhere like NJ which saw a complete collapse of Biden's coalition since last year, Long Island, and even in Brooklyn. If it was just a "VA is quirky story" alone that would be sound. However, we have a confluence of other like events where they make less sense. That's a bit of a flag that there might be a bigger trend/movement happening.El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:44 pmThe political environment almost always moves against the party in power, and Virginia in particular has a long history of electing governors from the opposition party (and in fact the Biden 2020 --> McAuliffe 2021 shift towards the GOP was signifcantly smaller than the Obama 2008 --> Deeds 2009 shift). So like, in many ways this is politics in general.
My basic disagreement is what "perspective" is. This sort of conventional wisdom tends to be based a bit on a biased data set. To contrast, we have detailed data about VA voting preferences based on polling leading up to the election, exit polls, etc. The other data set is this folksy 'No Democratic governor has been re-elected in 44-years' / 'VA swings against the party in power' data set which is *very small*. That biases small factors. Very few elections actually match up with this criteria in any given period.
Agreed but the outcome of the simple analysis above leads to things like the NY Times saying the BBB agenda is too extreme and people voted to move to the center. (Today's edition btw). It's just mindnumbing in its inanity. The data IMO doesn't show much of a move to the center in VA.Sure, the Dems are foundering and Biden looks more like Carter than FDR right now. They'll almost surely lose the House, as the ruling party nearly always does. But they have a little time left to change the narrative before the debt ceiling debacle and campaign season preempt governance. Salvage the skeleton of Biden's agenda AND protect voting rights before it's too late, and they won't look so much like the gang that couldn't shoot straight. Fail to do those things, and they deserve the spanking they'll get.
Democratic New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney, who is projected to lose his bid for reelection against a little-known truck driver, is talking about "recently found" ballots to support his refusal to concede the race.
The defiant incumbent released a statement to the Philadelphia Inquirer on Thursday that explained why he is not ready to admit defeat to his Republican challenger.
“The results from Tuesday’s election continue to come in, for instance there were 12,000 ballots recently found in one county,” Sweeney said in an email, not naming the county. “While I am currently trailing in the race, we want to make sure every vote is counted. Our voters deserve that, and we will wait for the final results.”
Apparently he was in New Jersey filling out an additional 12,000 ballots. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... uck-driver
"I hate to lose ... but I'm also someone who believes strongly in our republic ... I see no proof that this election was stolen" -- it's the absolute bare minimum, but credit to Jack Ciattarelli for saying this during his concession speech
Attempts to do so (in Michigan) are constantly attacked in court and in Lansing by... The state GOP legislature, the state GOP committee, the Chamber of Commerce... They then go 1984 and try to define voting improvements solely by things they use to control, retain, and build their voting block. They're full blown off the deep end in to waging a false war in the courts in my state and they welcome outside interference.
Murphy (ahead of the 2020 election) updated the law regarding mail-in votes saying they could not be counted ahead of election day. So here in NJ, your ability to vote by mail increased dramatically but the county registrars couldn't start counting until the ballots were officially open for everyone. It absolutely slowed things down, but I can also appreciate how they don't want to influence the election either by having them counted ahead of time and word gets out that a candidate or party is seeing heavy support so the other side needs to show up and slam the ballot boxes.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:19 pm He has a solid point (though I don't know the specific "recently passed law" that he's referring to). What's problematic is not just the length of vote counting, but that there's a lack of consistent reporting on what votes in any area are counted / not counted, which makes it difficult for anyone to project confidently who is winning in a close election.
From a technical point of view I agree we could/should count faster. It'd be helpful if they had one less thing to point at as an issue but this isn't even central to the core problem. If this didn't happen they'd just make up something else. It's all about grievance at this point.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:19 pm Worth listening to the end. He criticizes the vote counting process that leads to votes still being counted 10 days out of election day, and how that contributes to conspiracy theories around election results. He has a solid point (though I don't know the specific "recently passed law" that he's referring to). What's problematic is not just the length of vote counting, but that there's a lack of consistent reporting on what votes in any area are counted / not counted, which makes it difficult for anyone to project confidently who is winning in a close election.
We do need to figure out ways to improve vote counting (especially the speed). Though that's an area where having all parties committed to democracy would help a lot.
Exactly. If Biden had been announced as a clear winner as soon as the polls closed, the response would not have been any different by Florida Man.malchior wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 4:26 pmFrom a technical point of view I agree we could/should count faster. It'd be helpful if they had one less thing to point at as an issue but this isn't even central to the core problem. If this didn't happen they'd just make up something else. It's all about grievance at this point.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:19 pm Worth listening to the end. He criticizes the vote counting process that leads to votes still being counted 10 days out of election day, and how that contributes to conspiracy theories around election results. He has a solid point (though I don't know the specific "recently passed law" that he's referring to). What's problematic is not just the length of vote counting, but that there's a lack of consistent reporting on what votes in any area are counted / not counted, which makes it difficult for anyone to project confidently who is winning in a close election.
We do need to figure out ways to improve vote counting (especially the speed). Though that's an area where having all parties committed to democracy would help a lot.
Yeah I'm just saying that what Citrarelli (sp) says in this seems perfectly reasonable to me. But like I said, actually addressing this would require a GOP that's actually interested in fair elections procedures, and not just about their own power.malchior wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 4:26 pmFrom a technical point of view I agree we could/should count faster. It'd be helpful if they had one less thing to point at as an issue but this isn't even central to the core problem. If this didn't happen they'd just make up something else. It's all about grievance at this point.El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:19 pm Worth listening to the end. He criticizes the vote counting process that leads to votes still being counted 10 days out of election day, and how that contributes to conspiracy theories around election results. He has a solid point (though I don't know the specific "recently passed law" that he's referring to). What's problematic is not just the length of vote counting, but that there's a lack of consistent reporting on what votes in any area are counted / not counted, which makes it difficult for anyone to project confidently who is winning in a close election.
We do need to figure out ways to improve vote counting (especially the speed). Though that's an area where having all parties committed to democracy would help a lot.