So, how about that Kazakhstan?

[Kraken]

(CNN)Dozens of protesters were killed and hundreds injured during clashes in Kazakhstan, a police official from the largest city Almaty said Thursday, as troops from a Russian-led military alliance of post-Soviet states begin their operations in the Central Asian country to help quell the unrest.

At least 13 law enforcement officials died in Almaty and 353 people were injured, state-run Khabar 24 TV reported.

The citizens of the 9th-largest country in the world are fed up with the authoritarian oligarchy pocketing all the wealth and keeping them down, and Putin is not amused.

[dbt1949]

They won't last long. Every hardliner country head in the area is going to help suppress this.

[Kraken]

The concern, as I understand it, is that the protests will spread to those other countries, while Russia itself is preoccupied with Ukraine. I wonder to what extent US/NATO interests are stirring the pot.

[dbt1949]

I'd say none now that Afghanistan is out of the picture.

[LordMortis]

I wouldn't put it past us, "ethically", given what Putin has done in the US and Western Europe for the last decade and now that there is growing fear of Chinese/Russian cooperative expansionism. I would put it past our current intelligence capacity, probably.

That said, it's all scary. Previous to the last 10 years I was always thankful for the comparatively peaceful times we lived in, even after the golden triangle, even after Hussein, even after 9/11. Was I fooling myself? Was it just because we had a brief moment of history where we were "on top" so it didn't affect me?

[malchior]

Weird. I think this is great for Putin. I see this more as the results of Putin using energy production/delivery as a strategic weapon. If we had been involved, we'd be fools. Especially since energy price issues would mean problems for our partners in western Europe. It pushes Kazakhstan firmly back into Russia's orbit. The peacekeepers naturally will 'stay to keep things calm' and this is hardly the size of action to distract them from Ukraine.

[El Guapo]

I assume that the protestors are doomed at this point, right? For a protest movement to succeed the military has to be unable / unwilling to just shoot people until the problem goes away. I can't see Russians / Armenians / etc. deployed from the quasi-USSR having that problem.

Another question is whether this metastasizes into an armed civil war a la Syria. Doesn't seem like it's likely to go that route, but I suppose it's possible.

[Holman]

The concern, as I understand it, is that the protests will spread to those other countries, while Russia itself is preoccupied with Ukraine. I wonder to what extent US/NATO interests are stirring the pot.

Apparently Russia isn't too Ukraine-preoccupied to send "assistance" to Kazakhstan.

Russian paratrooper units have begun arriving in Kazakhstan to help its president end mass protests in the Central Asian country, as security forces there said they have killed dozens of protesters overnight amid violent clashes.

The Russian troops are deploying as part of a joint force from a Russian-led military alliance of former Soviet countries, after Kazakhstan’s president appealed late Wednesday for help putting down the protests that have spread across the country. President Kassym-Jopart Tokayev made the request after a mob of protesters stormed the mayor’s office in Kazakhstan’s largest city Almaty, and overran the airport.

[LawBeefaroni]

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev blamed foreign-trained terrorists for the unrest, without providing evidence.

"The militants have not laid down their arms, they continue to commit crimes or are preparing for them," Tokayev, 68, said in a televised address.

"Whoever does not surrender will be destroyed. I have given the order to law enforcement agencies and the army to shoot to kill, without warning."

This is a blueprint for future protests the world over. These kinds of things make the establishment nervous. Russian troops are there for training.

[malchior]

I assume that the protestors are doomed at this point, right?

Yes as the President there just sent out a shoot-to-kill order to police and army. They are doing the authoritarian thing where they send a message in piles of bodies. And they are both strategically important to China and Russia which aren't the most humane regimes to begin with. The people aren't going to get help here.

Another question is whether this metastasizes into an armed civil war a la Syria. Doesn't seem like it's likely to go that route, but I suppose it's possible.

Apparently the mobs are completely unorganized. I have no idea how likely it is that they'll organize but everyone is happy with Kazakhstan being pacified as long as they get the oil.

This is a blueprint for future protests the world over. These kinds of things make the establishment nervous. Russian troops are there for training.

Seems likely. The world is becoming more authoritarian but people have more access to information. It's a combo that'll cause problems until people realize they aren't going to be free anymore.

[LordMortis]

Kazakhstan's other major neighbour, China, has backed Tokayev. State television said President Xi Jinping had told him Beijing opposed any use of force to destabilise Kazakhstan.

I foresee a massacre coming. I hope I'm wrong.

[Zarathud]

There is no coincidence the shoot to kill orders were issued. You can storm the capital in the US, but get shot in Russia. Sigh.

[malchior]

Kazakhstan's other major neighbour, China, has backed Tokayev. State television said President Xi Jinping had told him Beijing opposed any use of force to destabilise Kazakhstan.

I foresee a massacre coming. I hope I'm wrong.

We probably won't see much of anything. State media and Russian based telecom networks are in place. We'll see some trickle out over time but nothing real-time.

[dbt1949]

With their leader over there ordering a shoot to kill order I have to wonder how many of the local troops would do that? The mercs brought in would have no problem but what about the countries own troops?
I have a feeling they'd have no problem with the order. I think of Kazakhstan as a backward third world country and they do that sort of thing all the time.
I also wonder how many American troops would shoot American demonstrators? I would like to think not many but who knows.

[Jaymann]

They would likely shoot rubber bullets.

[dbt1949]

The shoot to kill order seems to have worked.

[LordMortis]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-01-13/

Reporting on this seems to no longer be en vogue but...

ALMATY, Jan 13 (Reuters) - A Russia-led military bloc began pulling out from Kazakhstan on Thursday after a week-long deployment amid an explosion of unrest during which authorities in the Central Asian nation said the former security chief was suspected of attempting a coup.

Russia said the withdrawal of the troops would be completed by Jan. 19, earlier than previously announced. Their deployment had been criticised by Western leaders alarmed by a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. Moscow has denied allegations it plans to invade but said security talks this week had hit a dead end and threatened unspecified consequences.

President Vladimir Putin said the mission in Kazakhstan had been a success and was a practice that warranted further study.